Forecasting Methods for International Enrollment

Management

Daniel J. StoneFounding Director of Center Operations

ELS Language CentersOn the campus of ODU

2010-2012

Item to be forecasted: Enrollment

Relationship between value and cost:

Historical Data Available: None at local level

Time allowed to prepare the forecast: Six weeks

International Enrollment Management

• Naïve Forecasting• Causal Forecasting

Quantitative Forecasting

• Manages hiring needs• Enrollment determines

teaching and administrative hours are available.

Full-Time Enrollment (FTE) technique

• 120 hours- 1• 80 hours- .67• 60 hours- .5

Enrollment Recognition

• =IF(Total Full Time Enrollment Count<41,( Total Full Time

Enrollment Count multiplied by 7.76+155.2),( Total Full Time

Enrollment Count multiplied by 7.76+164.9))/(Number of days of instruction per session which is

20).

FTE Formula

Full-Time Enrollment (FTE) technique

Unused hours are rolled over to the following sessions

Banked hours get used when the schedule can't be kept within the

financial standards.

Cumulative Standard Tracker

Cumulative Standard Tracker

Keeps tracking and forecasting in order. Five possible statuses of incoming students.

Five possible statuses of outgoing students. Staffing responds to enrollment.

Future Student Forecasting Enrollment technique

Return to home country/Arrive from home country

Transfer to another school/from another school

Start/Finish temporary absence Start/Finish vacation

Start/Finish medical leave

Student’s Status

Jury and Executive opinion- 45 students at end of first year

Spring 2011- 65 students July 2011- 140 students Fall 2011- Majority of the classes had to

be held at the LEAD building. Winter Break 2011- Entire enrollment was

housed at LEAD.

Qualitative Forecasting

80% of FTE was Muslim in 2011 Student Visa violations Option plan was introduced in 2012 Quantitative forecasting was employed to

allow senior teachers vacation during Ramadan.

Ramadan

ELS forecasting was used by ODU top management for the forecasting of upcoming fiscal schedules.

ELS generated $15-20K a month, $250,000 annually.

ELS forecasting was used to support sustainability for the joint venture in 2011.

Examples of Forecasting in Action

ReferencesELS Educational Services, Inc. (2012). About

ELS.  Retrieved from ELS Language Centers official website:  

http://www.els.edu/en/AboutELS

Questions?