foodservice consumption around the world npd group...

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Presented By Bob O'Brien

FOODSERVICECONSUMPTION

AROUND THE WORLD

NPD Group Foodservice

Proprietary and Confidential

Global Foodservice Opportunities

Big Markets, Low Growth

Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented

Lack of “Global” tastes

Promise & Challenge


3

CRESTCREST Pilot

Foodservice markets tracked by the NPD Group

United States


Big


USA42%

Canada5%

Australia4%

Great Britain8%

Germany9%

France6%

Spain5%

Italy8%

Japan11%

China1%

Russia2%

45M

Foodservice expenditures are sizable, but there is opportunity for growth

Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)

Share of Consumer Expenditures (Euros)

*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010

46M

82M

65M

60M

62 M

142M

312M

21M

34M1.3B

128M



Developed


The share of chain vs. independent restaurants varies around the world

Share of Visits

Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)



Presenter

Presentation Notes

Brett- please format to make it look nice and to scale.


Slow


Traffic fell for the second consecutive quarter

Traffic % Change vs. Year Ago

Total Restaurants

Source: The NPD Group / CREST ®


Presenter

Presentation Notes

JJA ‘11 Notes Jun Jul Aug Total QSR1%, 0%, -1% Total Midscale-4%, -2%, -6% Total Casual Dining -1%, -2%, -2%


10

CRESTCREST Pilot


Europe


Big


USA42%

Canada5%

Australia4%

Great Britain8%

Germany9%

France6%

Spain5%

Italy8%

Japan11%

China1%

Russia2%

45M





46M

82M

65M

60M

62 M

142M

312M

21M

34M1.3B

128M



Consumers in Europe visit restaurants less frequently than those in Japan and China


Annual Visits Per Person To Commercial Restaurants

196 195209

146

10892

142

178

356

226

USA Canada Australia Great Britain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China


Presenter

Presentation Notes



Fragmented






46M

82M

65M

60M

62 M

142M

312M

21M

34M1.3B

128M

USA42%

Canada5%

Australia4%

Great Britain8%

Germany9%

France6%

Spain5%

Italy8%

Japan11%

China1%

Russia2%

45M



Chains play a much smaller role in Europe than they do in North America

Share of Visits




Presenter

Presentation Notes



Slow


18

Total Commercial Fodservice Traffic ChangeBig 5

Source: npdgroup deutschland GmbH / CREST® Propriertary and Confidential


The European market is still a long way off from recovering from the effects of the global crisis.


19Source: npdgroup deutschland GmbH / CREST® Propriertary and Confidential

Total Commercial Fodservice Traffic ChangeBig 5

pcya


Spain remains far weaker than the rest of Europe


20

CRESTCREST Pilot


Japan


Big


USA42%

Canada5%

Australia4%

Great Britain8%

Germany9%

France6%

Spain5%

Italy8%

Japan11%

China1%

Russia2%

45M





46M

82M

65M

60M

62 M

142M

312M

21M

34M1.3B

128M



Fragmented


The dominance of Chains makes it appear that the Japanese market is not too fragmented.

Share of Visits




Presenter

Presentation Notes



Retail

Full Service

QSR

OnSite*

Total Industry Distribution of TrafficQ3 2011


The dominance of chains in Japan is really a reflection of the strength of the C-Store channel. Restaurants tend to be independents

http://www.ecosea.com/eco/Library/Images Gif assorted/gifs/Japan-flag.gif

http://www.33ff.com/flags/XL_flags/France_flag.gif

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http://www.historyimages.com/flag/flag-us.gif


Slow


The Japanese market had just started to recover from the “Lehman Crisis” when the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami hit


Total Restaurants



Presenter

Presentation Notes







Promise & Challenge


29

CRESTCREST Pilot


Mexico

Brazil

China

India

Russia


BRIC

Brazil

Russia

IndiaChina


31

The Russian foodservice market is more chain-oriented than most European markets

Total AFH – Chains vs Independents (in %)

6453

32

3647

68

RU GB Germany

Independents

Chains

Source: CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010



32

290.1

56.6 53.6 52.5 49.4 37.915.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

US Germany Italy UK France Spain Russia*

The Russian Foodservice market has a plenty of room for growth compared to Western countries

Foodservice market sizes est. (Total Industry AFH in € billions)

Based on NPD CREST data

139 mio 46 mio62 mio62 mio58 mio82 mio

310 mio





http://www.historyimages.com/flag/flag-us.gif


33

Compared to GB and Germany, Russia has a high QSR share, whereas Workplace/Education is clearly less important.

Visit Share of Segments in Total AFH (in %)




34

SEGMENT SHARE OF VISITS in QSR (in %)

Fast Food and Coffee shop segments have a higher share compared to GB and Germany.



Proprietary and Confidential35

Wuhan

Beijing

Shenyang

ShanghaiChengdu

Guangzhou

Jinan

Changsha


China is not growing slowly


16.6

12.7

16.2 16.7

11.4

15.2

18.7

JFM

'10

AM

J '1

0

JAS

'10

ON

D '1

0

JFM

'11

AM

J '1

1

JAS

'11

China US

Total Restaurants



Presenter

Presentation Notes



Chinese urban consumers are very frequent users of foodservice.


Annual Visits Per Person To Commercial Restaurants

196 195209

146

10892

142

178

356

226

USA Canada Australia Great Britain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China


Presenter

Presentation Notes



The majority of Chinese restaurants are independents

Share of Visits




Presenter

Presentation Notes



Chinese consumers have barely started to use foodservice for main meals.

Share of Visits By Daypart



Presenter

Presentation Notes


Chinese consumers spend very little per visit to restaurants.


Average Eater Check (Euros)




41






Promise & Challenge


There are global brands all around the world; however, domestic chains dominate the list of top chains

USA Canada Australia GreatBritain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China

McDonald's Tim Hortons McDonald's McDonalds McDonalds/McCafé

McDonalds/McCafé McDonalds McDonald’s 7-Eleven KFC

Starbucks McDonald's Hungry Jack's Tesco Burger King Quick Burger King GranCafé McDonald’s Ba Be Mantou

Subway Subway KFC Greggs Nordsee Carrefour Carrefour Autogrill Lawsons McDonald's

Burger King A & W Red Rooster Sainsbury's Aral Auchan Alcampo Antica Locanda Family Mart Xin Ya Da Bao

Wendy's Wendy's Nandos KFC Vapiano Flunch Telepizza Apollo Jusco Jin De Li Min

Taco Bell Starbucks Oporto Costa Coffee IKEA Brioche Dorée Mercadona Fratelli La Bufala Yoshinoya Pizza Hut

Dunkin' Donuts Dairy Queen Gloria Jean's Asda Subway Casino Cafeteria Ben & Jerry's Auchan Seiyu Min Sheng Tian

Shi Guan

Sonic KFC Coffee Club Wetherspoon Apetito Buffalo Grill Gambrinus Agip Daiei 85 Degrees C

Dairy Queen Burger King Michel's Patisserie

Marks & Spencer Edeka Intermarché La Jijonenca Rosso

Pomodoro Matsuya Qing FengBao Zi Pu

KFC Swiss Chalet Chicken & Ribs Subway Morrisons Kamps Autogrill Mediterranea de

catering Acafé Ito-Yoka-Do JingkelongSupermarket

Top 10 Commercial Foodservice Outlets



Presenter

Presentation Notes

I will populate with chains. Brett- please format to make it look nice and to scale.


The global chains are present around the world…

USA Canada Australia GreatBritain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China

McDonald's Tim Hortons McDonald's McDonalds McDonalds McDonalds McDonalds McDonald’s 7-Eleven KFC

Starbucks McDonald's Hungry Jack's Tesco Burger King Quick Burger King GranCafé McDonald’s Ba Be Mantou

Subway Subway KFC Greggs Nordsee Carrefour Carrefour Autogrill Lawsons McDonald's

Burger King A & W Red Rooster Sainsburys Aral Auchan Alcampo AnticaLocanda Family Mart Xin Ya Da Bao

Wendy's Wendy's Nandos KFC Vapiano Flunch Telepizza Apollo Jusco Jin De Li Min

Taco Bell Starbucks Oporto Costa Coffee IKEA Brioche Dorée Mercadona Fratelli La Bufala Yoshinoya Pizza Hut

Dunkin' Donuts Dairy Queen Gloria Jean's Asda Subway CasinoCafeteria Ben & Jerry's Auchan Seiyu Min Sheng

Tian Shi Guan

Sonic KFC Coffee Club Wetherspoon Apetito Buffalo Grill Gambrinus Agip Daiei 85 Degrees C

Dairy Queen Burger King Michel's Patisserie

Marks & Spencer Edeka Intermarché La Jijonenca Rosso

Pomodoro Matsuya Qing FengBao Zi Pu

KFC Swiss Chalet Chicken & Ribs Subway Morrisons Kamps Autogrill Mediterranea

de catering Acafé Ito-Yoka-Do JingkelongSupermarket

Top 10 Commercial Foodservice Outlets



Presenter

Presentation Notes



Consumer taste’s vary around the world and are influenced by local culture

USA Canada Australia GreatBritain

Germany France Spain Italy Japan China

Burgers Fries Fries Fries Fries Dessert/Ice Cream Tapas Brioches Rice Buns

Fries Chicken Burgers Sandwich Burgers Baked Goods Desserts Pasta Sweet Bread Donut

Other Staple Food

Pizza Salads Sandwiches Burgers Pork Salads Meat Entrees Pizza, whole Rice Balls VegetableDishes

Mexican Burgers Fish/Seafood Salad Poultry Sandwich Salads Beef VegetableSalad Noodles

ChickenSandwiches Side Salads Grilled/Roast

Chicken Chinese Sandwichw/Cheese Burgers Fish/Shellfish Pizza, slice Miso Soup Fish Dishes

5 Favorite Foods



Presenter

Presentation Notes








Other Staple Food





5 Favorite Foods


10 7


Presenter

Presentation Notes








Other Staple Food





People, Chains & Manufacturers

5 Favorite Foods


10 7109 9


Presenter

Presentation Notes








Other Staple Food





5 Favorite Foods


Indian11


Presenter

Presentation Notes



49

Fast breakfasts are eerily similar!


Coffee is an important item on restaurant menus in Italy, Spain and Canada but not in Japan and China

Coffee Incidence Trended



Presenter

Presentation Notes


51

And in Europe today….

Take-Away Coffee Share % in Commercial Restaurants

5

4 21

1

35

27

8

27

12

Great Britain Germany Spain France Italy2000 2010









Promise & Challenge


China grew during the global recession, while most other countries suffered

Gross Domestic Product, Volume, Market Prices, Annualized Rate(Annual Projections for OECD Countries)

Source: OECD Forecasts (www.oecd.org)

Key Opportunity To Drive GrowthPromise & Challenge


Looking a the long term, consumers increase their use and cut back in times of economic stress.

Source: The NPD Group/ 26th Annual Eating Patterns of America

Annual Commercial Foodservice Meals Per Person In the USA

Promise & Challenge

Presenter

Presentation Notes


Young adults are important consumers to restaurants around the world

Source: The NPD Group/ CREST

Annual Visits Per Person By AgeTo Commercial Restaurants


Promise & Challenge


Mature adults keep increasing their use of restaurants.

Promise & Challenge

Source: The NPD Group/CREST

163172 176 177 175

182 179 177 179 179 179 183 181 184 187194

207 209 211200

194 192 192 195 194 199206 203 204

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Annual Eatings Per Capita—50+ Year Olds In The USA


So,

The Promise:– Around the world, people have their own

tastes and motivations but they all find more and more reasons for purchasing prepared meals in snacks….OVER TIME

The Challenge:– Finding solutions, situations, foods and drinks

that are relevant to each market and consumer group

Promise & Challenge


Final thoughts….

Continued, growing economic health…which you can do nothing aboutDaypart options with shorter eating timeLess expensive items, either main meals or snacksA focus on what the locals like– But, just because they don’t do it now doesn’t mean they won’t do it

tomorrow

Innovation for heavy using young people who will drive the long term market

More frequent eating out requires…

Presenter

Presentation Notes


Final thoughts….

We all find ourselves away from home at meal timeWe all need to have some food at the beginning of the dayWe all need a pick-me-up from time to timeWe all need to “restore” ourselves from time to timeWe all (some of us, anyway) need something to fill our stomachs after a night out

And, those common needs..

Presenter

Presentation Notes


Thank You

Bob O’BrienTelephone: +1-847-692-1757

Mobile: +1-708-829-4353

Fax: +1-847-692-2812

Email: [email protected]

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Brett- Format to make look nice.

http://sharepoint/BU/FBS/Food Beverage Images/Misc/data.jpg


Additional Thoughts…

The tastes of young adults will help drive innovation and determine long term trends.In Europe, the opportunity is to get people to choose restaurants for more mealsOutside of Europe, the key is to add items to current meals or expand outside of mealsFor manufacturers, global chains may prove to be a useful entry into a new country but the domestic chains, and their needs, will determine the breadth of success.


Presenter

Presentation Notes


Young adults are important consumers to restaurants around the world

Source: The NPD Group/ CREST

Annual Visits Per Person By AgeTo Commercial Restaurants


Key Opportunity To Drive GrowthBig Markets, Low Growth


Thoughts about markets, foods and occasions

People buy at different rates but they tend to distribute their meals in roughly the same way (except for Italy and China)Meals are generally cheaper in higher frequency countries– Convenience vs. Event

New situation can drive behaviorForeign foods, outside of burgers and fries are rarely favoritesBut common foods can translate across cultures

foodservice consumption around the world npd group...

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