food security and poverty 3 - 2017stat.ww.tj/87ac8ac00dfb7fe7edb6796d8807ea39_1514189254.pdffood...

Statistical Agency under President of the

Republic of Tajikistan

Food Security and Poverty

№3 - 2017

Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2017

112

Editorial board:

Hasansoda G. - Chairman of Editorial Board

- Deputy Chairman of Editorial Board

Members of editorial board: Shokirzoda Sh., Davlatzoda K., Odilzoda U., Kasimov H.,

Minakova S., Gafurov Sh., Kulov A., Asmatbekov F., Nadjibulloev A.

Responsible for:

- sections of the Bulletin

Vital and Employment Statistics,

Social Statistics Kulov A.N. 227-80-88

Prices and Tariffs Nadjibulloev A. 227-94-89

Finances / Gross Domestic Product Minakova S. 227-98-71

Trade, External Activity Asmatbekov F. 227-82-66

Agriculture, Nature and

Environment Statistics Hodjaev Z. 227-81-14

-publication: Chief of Central Computer Center

of the Statistical Agency under President

of the Republic of Tajikistan Odilzoda U. Tel: 227-96-09


Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2017 113

Introduction

In accordance with European Commission Matrix on Policy Reform of Memorandum of

Understanding on Food Security Program in the Republic of Tajikistan the decision about

preparation and publishing of Quarterly Food Security Bulletin was made to ensure system of

reliable operative information and analysis of current food security situation in the Republic of

Tajikistan. The Bulletin is being published on Tajik, Russian, and English languages on

quarterly basis, starting from 2005.

“Food security presumes that all people have access, at all time, to sufficient food

required for an active and healthy life. Food security also means physical

availability of food in sufficient quantities, accessibility of those foodstuffs for

households (through the market and other sources, that suppose sufficient

purchasing power), as well as consumption of food in quantities required for

satisfying of nutritional needs”.

The main indicators covered by the Bulletin are production of food, food availability and

accessibility, areas under crops, agricultural production and productivity, main climatic

conditions, health indicators, water supply, prices, and quantitative indicators reflecting

situation on food market.

The Appendices to the Bulletin show indicators of Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper,

information on nutritional status of various socio-economic groups of the population.

The presented Quarterly Food Security Information Bulletin of Tajikistan was prepared

by the Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan with participation of

key Ministries and Departments (Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health and Social Protection

of Population, Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment, Ministry of Education and

Science, Ministry of Transport, Hydrometeorological Agency under the Committee for Nature

and Forestry Protection of the Republic of Tajikistan, etc.).

The publication is intended both for specialists and all interested persons.

All recommendations, suggestions and remarks related to the content of the Bulletin

should be addressed to the Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan at

the following address:

17 Bokhtar Street Dushanbe

734025 Tajikistan

Tel. (992 372) 212387, Fax (992 372) 214375

email: [email protected]

http://www.stat.tj


mailto:[email protected]



114

CONTENTS

Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 113

Overview ............................................................................................................................. 116

CHAPTER I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................................... 117

1.1. Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................... 117

1.2. Price and Tariff Indices ........................................................................................... 119

1.3. Foreign trade ............................................................................................................ 119

1.4. Labor market ........................................................................................................... 120

CHAPTER II. AVAILABILITY OF FOOD .................................................................. 121

2.1. Growth in agricultural production ........................................................................... 121

2.1.1 Outlook of agricultural production .................................................................... 122

2.1.2. Crop production ................................................................................................ 123

2.1.3. Livestock production ...................................................................................... 124

2.2. Producer prices ........................................................................................................ 125

2.3. Exports and imports of basic foodstuff ................................................................... 127

2.4. Availability of food per capita ................................................................................. 128

CHAPTER III. ACCESS TO FOOD .............................................................................. 129

3.1. Consumer prices ...................................................................................................... 129

3.2. Incomes and Expenditures ....................................................................................... 132

3.2.1. Incomes ............................................................................................................ 132

3.2.2. Expenditures .................................................................................................... 132

3.3. Poverty in the Republic of Tajikistan ...................................................................... 133

3.3.1 Food insecurity: households with spend more than 70% of expenditures

on food ....................................................................................................................... 134

CHAPTER IV. USE AND UTILIZATION .................................................................... 134

4.1. Consumption of food products by the population ................................................... 135

4.2. Food security indicators not related to income ........................................................ 136

4.2.1. Population morbidity ................................................................................. 136

4.2.2. Birth, mortality, and natural population growth rates ................................ 138



METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 141

Appendix 1. Review of meteorological conditions ............................................................. 144

Appendix 2. Key Target Indicators of the NDS-2030 ........................................................ 147

Appendix 3. Changes in average wholesale prices in Tajikistan ........................................ 150

Appendix 4. Changes in average consumer prices in Tajikistan ......................................... 151

Appendix 5. Money incomes, expenditures and consumption of households, by decile

population groups in the Republic of Tajikistan ................................................................. 155

Appendix 6. Distribution of households and population in them by per capita income

in the Republic of Tajikistan ............................................................................................... 157

Appendix 7. Structure of average monthly expenditures of population in the Republic

of Tajikistan ......................................................................................................................... 158

Appendix 8. Per capita consumption of food in the republic of Tajikistan ........................ 162



116

OVERVIEW

According to preliminary estimates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for January-

September 2017 was valued at 42416.8 million somoni, and increased by 6.8% as

compared to the similar period of 2016 (in constant prices).

The value of gross agricultural output in January – September 2017 in all

categories of farms increased by 6.1% (in comparable prices) as compared to the

similar period of 2016 and amounted to 16573.9 mln.somoni, of which: plant

products– 12290.9 mln.somoni (increased by 6.3%), and animal products –

4283.0 mln.somoni (increased by 5.5%).

In January – September 2017, farms of all categories produced 130549 tons of

meat (or 106.4% as compared to the similar period of the previous year) and

598909 tons of milk (103.6%).

In January – September 2017, the imports of food products increased by 5.4% as

compared to January – September 2016, of which the import of grains increased

by 2.3%, sugar and confectionery - by 33.2%, potato - by 190%, vegetables – by

120%, spaghetti, noodles, elbow and other products – by 8.5%, vegetable oil – by

16.9%, eggs – by 190%, and fruit and vegetable juices – by 22.2%. At the same

time, the imports of wheat decreased by 40.9%, tea – by 24.5%, milk and dairy

products - by 6.9%.

In January – September 2017, the highest increase in prices was registered for

onion (by 69.7%), carrot (by 61.2%), cabbage (by 48.1%), potato (by 40.4%), pea

(by 26.2%), beef (by 16.6%), mutton (by 12.5%), chocolate sweets (by 6.7%),

sugar (by 4.9%), cotton oil (by 3.9%), dairy butter (by 2.9%), and light wheat

flour (by 2.1%). At the same time, a decrease in prices was registered for tomato

(by 45.2%), apples (by 19.9%), cucumber (by 19.7%), eggs (by 11.5%), rice (by

4.0%), and milk (by 2.1%).

According to preliminary estimates, the labour force1 (employed and officially

registered unemployed) in September 2017 was estimated at 2337.4 thsd.persons,

of them 2287.0 thsd.persons (97.8%) were occupied in the economy, and 50.4

thsd.persons (2.2% of labour force) had official status of unemployed.

1 The term “economically active population” was abolished by the decision of 19th International Conference of

Labour Statisticians, “Resolution concerning statistics of work, employment and labour underutilization”.



In January – September 2017, 11.4 thsd.persons were on leave on initiative of

administration, of them 7.9 thsd.persons (69.3%) were on leave without pay. 0.5

thsd. persons were working during incomplete working week / working day.

Unemployment rate, including hidden unemployment, reached 2.7% of the total

labour force.

The most important sources of cash incomes of households in January –

September 2017 continued to remain labor incomes (51.4%), pensions and

allowances (7.3%), and receipts from sales of agricultural products (6.3%).

In January – September 2017, consumption of bread and bread products in all

regions of Tajikistan was on average 119.42 kg per one household member.

Increase of real wages and salaries (deflated by the CPI) in September 2017 made

up 9.2% as compared to August 2017; as compared to September 2016, the real

wages and salaries increased by 7.5%. Real wages and salaries in January –

September 2017 increased by 14.1% as compared to the similar period of 2016.

In September 2017, the lowest wages and salaries in real sector were observed in

agriculture, hunting, and forestry (520.92 somoni) and fishery (774.58somoni).

As of the end of September 2017, the total arrears in salary payments for the

republic (inclusive of arrears for previous years) amounted to 38935.3 thsd.

somoni, of which the arrears for January – September 2017 accounted for 62.2%

(24222.6 thsd.somoni).

The highest arrears in salary payments in real sectors remain in construction

(9893.8 thsd.somoni or 25.4% of the total arrears), mining industry and quarry

mining (7812.2 thsd.somoni or 20.1%), processing industry (5667.5 thsd.somoni

or 14.6%), agriculture, hunting, and forestry (3960.0 thsd.somoni or 10.2%).



118

CHAPTER 1. SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The below socio-economic indicators depict overall economic situation in the country,

required for analysis of food security situation.

1.1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

According to preliminary estimates, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for January-

September 2017 was valued at 42416.8 million somoni, and increased by 6.8% as compared to

the similar period of 2016 (in constant prices).

The biggest impact was due to increase of production in agriculture, trade, and services.

Table 1: Main socio-economic indicators

2015 2016 Jan-Sept

20171

Population, as of the end of period (million) 8.5 8.7 8.9

Nominal GDP (mln. somoni) 48408.7 54471.1 42416.8

of which (in %):

agriculture 22.0 20.7 20.7

industry 13.3 15.1 17.1

services and trade 52.1 52.9 51.1

GDP per capita (somoni) 5727.8 6299.6 х

GDP growth , in % to the corresponding period of the

previous year 6.0 6.9 6.8

State budget deficit / surplus (as percentage of GDP) 0.8 -1.7 0.6

Consumer Price Indices, in % to the corresponding

period of the previous year 105.8 105.9 107.5

Price Indices for foodstuffs 106.8 105.0 109.5

Price indices for services 103.0 104.9 105.6

Exchange rate of somoni

(per 1 US Dollar) 6.1645 7.8356 8.4632

Officially registered unemployment rate, % 2.5 2.3 2.4

Number of registered unemployed, thsd.persons 51.1 53.1 54.1

in % to the corresponding period of the previous

year 92.1 103.9 99.9

Monthly average wages and salaries (somoni) 878.91 962.16 1138.11

in % to the corresponding period of the previous

year 107.7 109.5 123.0

Trade balance (mln.USD) -2545.0 -2132.5 -1065.9

Share of food in total imports, % 23.1 21.5 23.1

Share of food in total exports, % 4.8 3.6 2.6 1 preliminary data

Source: Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan



1.2 Price and Tariff Indices

In September 2017, consumer price index constituted 99.6%, of which for foodstuff – 99.0%,

non-food products – 100.8%, and paid services to population – 99.6%.

In January – September 2017, consumer price index constituted 105.6%, of which for foodstuff

– 105.9%, non-food products – 103.2%, and paid services to population – 108.8%.

Graph 1: Consumer price indices for foodstuff, non-food products

and paid services (at the end of each month, in % to December 2015)

In January – September 2017, the increase of prices of foods outpaced those of non-foods.

More detailed information on prices of food is available in the section 3 “Access to food”.

1.3 Foreign trade

In January – September 2017, foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Tajikistan was valued

at 2868.6 million USD, decreasing by 27.2 mln. USD (or 0.9%) as compared to January –

September 2016. The gap between exports and imports determined the deficit of trade balance

valued at –1065.9 million USD. Tajikistan had foreign trade operations with 102 countries, of

which 10 CIS countries and 92 far abroad countries.

About 51.1% (1466.0 mln.USD) of foreign trade turnover falls on the CIS countries, and

48.9% (1402.6 mln.USD) falls on other countries of the world. The deficit of trade balance

with CIS countries constituted 883.0 million USD, with other countries of the world –182.9

million USD.

In January – September 2017, the volume of exports amounted to 901.4 mln.USD and

increased by 34.0% (or 228.7 mln.USD) as compared to January – September 2016. The

volume of imports decreased by 11.5% (or 255.9 mln.USD) and amounted to 1967.2 mln.USD.

2015 2016 2017

98

101

104

107

110

113

116

119

122

125

128

131

XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI

Food products Non-food products Services



120

Major plant products in exports were fruits (7556.1 thsd.USD) and vegetables (2814.1

thsd.USD), while in imports it were wheat (131490.6 thsd.USD) and flour (10113.7 thsd.USD).

1.4. Labor market

According to preliminary estimates, the labour force2 (employed and officially registered

unemployed) in September 2017 was estimated at 2337.4 thsd.persons, of them 2287.0

thsd.persons (97.8%) were occupied in the economy, and 50.4 thsd.persons (2.2% of labour

force) had official status of unemployed.

As of the end of September 2017, the total number of unemployed registered by employment

agencies of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment amounted to 50.4 thsd. persons,

decreasing by 5.8% as compared to September 2016. Females accounted for 53.8% of total

number of registered unemployed (27.1 thsd.persons). The official unemployment rate was

2.2% of the total labour force.

As of the end of September 2017, the majority of registered unemployed were persons without

professional qualification or those who lost qualification due to long break in activity (43.1

thsd. persons or 79.9% of the total number of registered unemployed). Besides, 62.8% of the

registered unemployed have complete or incomplete secondary education (31.6 thsd. persons).

The above factors make the process of their employment more difficult.

Hidden unemployment means underemployment, when a part of workers are on forced leaves

or work during incomplete working week / working day due to downtime. In January –

September 2017, 11.4 thsd.persons were on leave on initiative of administration, of them 7.9

thsd.persons (69.3%) were on leave without pay. 0.5 thsd. persons were working during

incomplete working week / working day. Unemployment rate, including hidden

unemployment, reached 2.7% of the total labour force.

Real wages and salaries in January – September 2017 increased by 14.1% as compared to the

similar period of 2016.

In September 2017, the lowest wages and salaries in real sector were observed in agriculture,

hunting, and forestry (520.92 somoni) and fishery (774.58somoni). The highest wages and

salaries in real sector were observed in mining industry and quarry mining (2399.55 somoni),

construction (2063.96 somoni), energy, gas, and water supply industries (1583.95 somoni). The

average monthly salary in real sector in September 2017 was 1259.41 somoni, increasing by

60.0% as compared to September 2016.

In service sector, the highest salaries were observed in the area of financial intermediation

(2957.84 somoni), transport, warehousing, and communication 2284.94 somoni), and in the

area of real estate operations, rent and commercial activity (1539.21 somoni). The average

monthly salary in the service sector in September 2017 was 1107.09 somoni, increasing by

3.7% as compared to September 2016.

1 The term “economically active population” was abolished by the decision of 19th International Conference of

Labour Statisticians, “Resolution concerning statistics of work, employment and labour underutilization”.



Graph 2: Consumer price indices, nominal and real wages and salaries

(December 2012 = 100)

As of the end of September 2017, the total arrears in salary payments for the republic

(inclusive of arrears for previous years) amounted to 38935.3 thsd. somoni, of which the

arrears for January – September 2017 accounted for 62.2% (24222.6 thsd.somoni).

The highest arrears in salary payments in real sectors remain in construction (9893.8

thsd.somoni or 25.4% of the total arrears), mining industry and quarry mining (7812.2

thsd.somoni or 20.1%), processing industry (5667.5 thsd.somoni or 14.6%), agriculture,

hunting, and forestry (3960.0 thsd.somoni or 10.2%).

CHAPTER II. AVAILABILITY OF FOOD

Availability refers to the physical presence of food as a result of domestic production or market

operations. On country level availability of food is determined by combination of food stocks,

commercial imports, food aid and domestic production. The availability is also determined by

the following elements: weather conditions, crop yield, livestock and productivity, producer

prices for food, food prices in neighboring countries, as well as national policy defining

production, trade, distribution and pricing.

2.1. Growth in agricultural production

The value of gross agricultural output in January – September 2017 in all categories of farms

increased by 6.1% (in comparable prices) as compared to the similar period of 2016 and

amounted to 16573.9 mln.somoni, of which: plant products– 12290.9 mln.somoni (increased

by 6.3%), and animal products – 4283.0 mln.somoni (increased by 5.5%).



122

2.1.1. Outlook for agricultural production

Climate influence on crop production

July was characterized by moderately warm air temperature. The average monthly air

temperature was mainly above the norm in valleys; air temperature in the second half of the

days was within +35+40 degrees, while the ground temperature reached +60+70 degrees.

Dushanbe-city also experienced very hot weather (up to +43.7 degrees); similar weather was

observed in 1932 and 2001 (when the air temperature reached +43.4 degrees).

Gradual decrease of water content in rivers of the republic was observed. Only at the end of the

first decade of the month, increased air temperature in the area of glacial rivers (Gund, Vakhsh,

Obihingou, and Zeravshan) caused increase of water content in rivers of the republic.

August was dry and hot. The average monthly air temperature in most valleys and piedmonts

was within the norm or above the norm by 10 degrees (30 degrees in Khusher and Dehavz, in

Navobod – by 10 degrees below the norm) The air temperature was +24+28 degrees in valleys

and piedmonts, +18+23 degrees in mountainous regions (+28 degrees in Darvaz), and +10+12

degrees in high mountains of GBAO.

The highest air temperature was registered in the first decade of the month as well as on 29-31

August, when the maximum air temperature reached +37+40 degrees in valleys, +42 degrees in

some southern regions, +29+34 degrees in mountainous regions (+36+38 degrees in Darvaz).

During this period, the average monthly air temperature exceeded the norm by 2-4 degrees.

During the first decade of the month, air temperature at nights ranged between +19 and +24

degrees in valleys, and +12+17 degrees in mountainous regions (+19+24 degrees in Darvaz).

The average monthly amount of precipitations in most regions of the republic was below the

norm: 0-44% of the norm in Sogd Oblast, 0-38% - in RRS, and 0-43% - in GBAO.

Decrease of water content in rivers of the republic was observed. The average monthly water

discharge in the most rivers was within or below the norm (43-112%), except for Yahsu-Vose,

Kizilsu – Somonchi and Gund – Harog rivers (135-244%).

September. The warmest weather during the month was observed in Khatlon oblast. The

average monthly air temperature in the most regions of the republic was above the norm by 1-3

degrees (within the norm in some regions of the republic and below the norm by 1-2 degrees in

some mountainous regions and piedmonts), as follows: +17+22 degrees in valleys and

piedmonts, +14+19 degrees in mountains (+9 degrees in Dehavz and +24 degrees in Darvaz),

and +5+8 degrees in GBAO.

The average monthly amount of precipitations in most regions of the republic was above the

norm, as follows: 223-340% of the norm in Sogd Oblast, 0-12% of the norm in Khatlon oblast,

24-307% - in RRS, and 42-495% - in GBAO (except for Isgkashim – 0%).

Gradual decrease of water content in rivers of the republic continued. The average monthly

water discharge in the most rivers was within or below the norm (55-102%), except for Vaksh

– Darband, Zeravshan – Dupuli, and Kizilsu – Somonchi rivers (116 – 151% of the norm).



Table 2. Water reservoirs as of 30 September 2017

Water reservoirs Changes during

the month,

mln. cubic meters

Volume of water in 2017 Volume of water in

2016

mln. cubic

meters

in % to

total

capacity

mln.

cubic

meters

in % to

total

capacity

Kayrakkum 226.0 3389 81.6 2274 54.7

Nurek 29.0 10574 100.7 10574 100.6

2.1.2. Crop production

Table 3: Sown area and gross harvest

2015 2016

January – September of

2017

Sown area (thsd.ha) 830.6 837.3 837.2

Winter crops 256.3 259.0 253.2

Cereal crops 256.3 259.0 253.2

Spring crops 574.3 578.3 584.0

Cereal crops 166.6 164.4 159.2

wheat 61.9 62.5 60.9

barley 54.6 53.6 49.5

Industrial crops 188.6 190.7 203.4

Potatoes 39.8 41.6 40.6

Vegetables 55.4 58.2 59.6

Melons 21.4 20.0 20.3

Gross harvest, thsd.tons

Cereal crops 1392.6 1435.8 1204.8

Potatoes 887.4 898.1 547.2

Vegetables 1666.6 1748.3 1430.3

Melons 592.4 594.2 534.4


In January – September 2017, farms of all categories produced 1204792 tons of grains

(production decreased by 1.0% as compared to the similar period of the previous year), 230420

tons of cotton (increased by 54.0%), 547158 tons of potato (decreased by 22.8%), 1430344

tons of vegetables (increased by 7.1%), 534463 tons of melons (increased by 8.4%), 292786 of

fruits (increased by 8.8%), and 158057 tons of grapes (increased by 5.9%).

Harvesting. As of 1 October 2017, agricultural enterprises and dehkan farms have harvested

grain and legumes (without maize) from the area of 291805 ha. From the harvested area,

802326 tons of grain were threshed (from the area of 290142 ha) with total yield of 26.9

centners from one hectare. 390686 tons of potatoes were harvested from the area of 17646 ha

with average yield of 188.9 centners from one hectare; 733759 tons of vegetables were

harvested from the area of 29066 ha, with average yield of 252.4 centners/ha; 395302 tons of

melons were harvested from the area of 16343 ha, with average yield of 241.9 centners/ha.

During the reporting period, production of fruits increased by 8.3% as compared to the similar



124

period of the previous year (151164 tons), while production of grapes increased by 6.4%

(77886 tons).

Spring crops. As of 1 October 2017, spring crops were sown by agricultural enterprises and

dehkan farms on the area of 9321 ha. Out of this area, 8655 ha were sown to vegetables (more

by 34.1% as compared to the similar period of the previous year), 23 ha were sown to

vegetable seeds (les by 8.0%), and 643 ha were sown to feed crops (less by 13.2%).

Seed setting. As of 1 October 2017, the agricultural enterprises and dehkan farms have set

44326 tons of grain and grain legumes seeds (more by 7.2% as compared to the similar period

of the previous year), including 41712 tons of wheat seeds (more by 8.5%).

2.1.3. Livestock production

As of 1 October 2017, a number of cattle in farms of all categories amounted to 2276.2

thsd.heads (increasing by 56.2 thsd.heads or 2.5% as compared to the similar date of the

previous year). Number of sheep and goats increased by 136.8 thsd.heads or 2.5%, amounting

to 5594.6 thsd.heads. About 92.8% of cattle and 81.1% of sheep and goats belong to

population’ farm businesses.

A number of cattle in farms of GBAO increased by 1.6%, Sogd oblast – by 1.5%, Khatlon

oblast – by 4.6%, and RRS – by 0.7%.

Table 4: Main indicators of livestock production in the Republic of Tajikistan

2015 2016

Jan-Sept

2017

Production, thsd.tons

Meat (slaughtered) 108.8 116.7 65.3

of which:

Beef and veal 48.4 51.9 38.1

Mutton and goats meat 54.1 58.0 22.3

Poultry 1.6 1.7 1.7

Other meat 4.7 5.1 3.2

Milk 888.9 918.0 598.9

Eggs, mln. 357.2 337.2 215.7

Productivity 1

The average milk yield per cow, kg 1679 1676 1336

The average output of eggs per laying hen,

pieces 221 201 164 1)

agricultural enterprises and dehkan farms



Graph 3. Production of main live-stock products as of 1 October 2017,

in all categories of farms, thsd.tons

2.2. Producer prices

Table 5: Changes in producer prices

(somoni / kg)

2015 2016 2017

I q. II q. III q. IV q. I q. II q. III q. IV q. I q. II q. III q.

Wheat 1.22 1.60 1.50 1.52 1.42 1.69 1.50 1.38 1.57 2.53 1.94

Milk 1.86 2.48 2.10 2.19 1.07 2.43 2.50 1.85 2.54 2.56 2.65

Potatoes 1.37 1.17 1.32 1.39 0.78 1.24 1.34 1.58 3.19 3.03 3.20


In January – September 2017, the imports of wheat increased by 2.3% as compared to the

similar period of the previous year.

4,8

28,4

68,6

28,7

12,8

183

269,3

133,9

3,1

108,3

49,2

55,1

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

ГБАО

Согдийская область

Хатлонская область

РРП

яйца, млн.шт

молоко

мясо

RRS

Khatlon Oblast

Sogd Oblast

GBAO

Eggs, mln.pieces

Milk

Meat



126

Graph 4. Trends in producer and retail prices of potato (somoni/kg)

Graph 5. Trends in producer and retail prices of milk (somoni/kg)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

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Цены производителей Розничные цены

0

0,5

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1,5

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2,5

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3,5

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



Graph 6. Trends in producer and retail prices of wheat (somoni/kg)

The given graphs show that the changes in retail prices are higher than in producer’s ones. This

trend is specific for all types of agricultural products (see Appendices 3 and 4).

2.3. Exports and imports of basic foodstuff

Share of food products in the total volume of exports of Tajikistan accounted for 3.9% and

2.6% in January – September 2016 and 2017, respectively. The share of food products in the

total volume of imports was well higher and accounted for 19.9% and 23.1%, respectively.

The major food products imported to the Republic of Tajikistan were wheat and flour (the

greatest share), as well as sugar, vegetable oil, vegetables, fruits, potato, flour products

(macaroni, noodles, bread, cakes, pastries), dairy products, eggs, tea and others.

In January – September 2017, the imports of food products increased by 5.4% as compared to

January – September 2016, of which the import of grains increased by 2.3%, sugar and

confectionery - by 33.2%, potato - by 190%, vegetables – by 120%, spaghetti, noodles, elbow

and other products – by 8.5%, vegetable oil – by 16.9%, eggs – by 190%, and fruit and

vegetable juices – by 22.2%.

At the same time, the imports of wheat decreased by 40.9%, tea – by 24.5%, milk and dairy

products - by 6.9%.

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III

IV I

II

III


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



128

Table 6: Exports and Imports of basic food products

in January – September of 2016 and 2017 (thsd.tons)

Exports 2017

in %

to

2016

Imports 2017

in %

to

2016 2016 2017 2016 2017

Food products 156.2 100.5 64.3 1017.7 1072.6 105.4

of which

wheat - - - 638.2 652.7 102.3

flour - - - 67.4 39.8 59.1

sugar and pastry 0.0 0.3 - 67.7 90.2 133.2

spaghetti, noodles, elbow and

other products 0.0 0.2 - 9.4 10.2 108.5

vegetable oil 0.0 0.05 - 64.6 75.5 116.9

milk and dairy products 0.07 0.02 28.3 7.2 6.7 93.1

eggs 0.0 0.06 - 3.1 9.1 в 2.9 р

tea 0.06 0.02 33.3 4.9 3.7 75.5

potato 0.07 0.7 в 10.0 р 5.5 16.2 в 2.9 р

fresh vegetables 97.7 54.6 55.9 1.8 4.0 в 2.2 р

fresh fruits and berries 15.8 17.9 113.3 16.3 12.6 77.3

fruit and vegetable juices 0.0 0.2 - 0.9 1.1 122.2

canned vegetables, tomatoes 0.0 - - 1.4 1.9 135.7

Share of food products in total

volume, % 3.9 2.6 66.7 19.9 23.1 116.1

2.4. Availability of food per capita

The availability of food per capita is calculated using a food balance. A food balance shows for

each basic food commodity, the total physical availability and utilization of that foodstuff over

a given period of time, usually 1 year. Total physical availability is the sum of stocks at the

beginning of the period, production and imports of that commodity in a given period of time.

Total utilization covers use for human consumption + use as animal seed + seed + losses +

exports + stocks at the end of the period. In any one period, the availability and utilization of

the same commodity must balance. Drawn up over a succession of years, food balances usually

reveal a trend in total availability, imports, exports, and the availability of food for human

consumption and for feed use. Dividing the annual amount of food available for human

consumption by the population gives a key indicator of availability: the average availability of

food per capita per year. This measure of food availability is a national average, which takes no

account of households’ access (i.e. ability to produce, purchase or otherwise obtain) to food.



Table 7: Consumption of foodstuff per capita

(kg / month)

January -

September of 2016

January -

September of 2017

Bread products (expressed in grain) 12.3 13.3

Potatoes 3.3 3.4

Vegetables and melons 12.6 14.8

Fruits and berries 3.3 3.3

Sugar and confectionery items 1.1 1.1

Meat and meat products 1.2 1.2

Milk and dairy products 5.9 5.5

Eggs (pieces) 7 7

Vegetable oil 1.4 1.4

Fish and fish products 0.02 0.02 Source: Household Budget Surveys

CHAPTER III. ACCESS TO FOOD

Access to food refers to the ability of households to obtain adequate safe and appropriate

foods to meet their needs for a healthy and active life. Access can be through production

for own consumption, market purchases or donations / transfers.

3.1. Consumer prices

In September 2017, the highest decrease in prices was registered for onion (by 15.9%),

carrot (by 11.4%), cucumber (by 9.8%), tomato (by 7.4%), cabbage (by 7.2%), potatoe (by

6.5%), and sugar (by 4.9%). At the same time, a increase in prices was registered for apples (by

4.7%), buckwheat (by 4.2%), eggs (by 3.4%), milk (by 1.6%), rice (by 1.3%), and cotton oil

(by 0.8%) (please see Table 8 and Appendix 4 for details).

Table 8: Prices for some food products in consumer’s sector (average for Republic)

as of the end of the corresponding period; in Somoni / Diram; per kg, liter, piece

2016 2017

September December January March July August September

Beef 31.88 31.21 30.94 31.17 36.33 36.47 36.39

Animal oil 38.98 40.77 41.13 42.21 41.57 41.57 41.74

Cotton oil 10.56 10.83 10.88 11.03 11.18 11.17 11.26

Milk 3.30 3.63 3.75 3.67 3.42 3.49 3.55

Eggs (10 pieces) 7.07 8.33 8.47 7.64 7.24 7.13 7.37

Sand sugar 7.22 7.00 6.92 6.94 8.05 7.73 7.35

Salt 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95

Light wheat flour

3.11 3.11 3.09 3.06

3.16

3.16

3.18



130

2016 2017

September December January March July August September

Bread made from

light wheat flour 4.23 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.33 4.33 4.33

Rice 8.25 7.30 7.23 6.66 6.92 6.93 6.95

Potatoes 1.87 2.39 2.53 3.87 4.30 4.00 3.75

Onion 1.29 1.62 1.76 2.70 4.20 3.28 2.76

Carrot 1.93 1.27 1.16 1.67 2.85 2.40 2.13

Apples 7.08 7.81 7.83 7.94 5.57 5.98 6.25

Vodka 17.00 17.35 17.35 17.35 17.35 17.35 17.35

In January – September 2017, the highest increase in prices was registered for onion (by

69.7%), carrot (by 61.2%), cabbage (by 48.1%), potato (by 40.4%), pea (by 26.2%), beef (by

16.6%), mutton (by 12.5%), chocolate sweets (by 6.7%), sugar (by 4.9%), cotton oil (by 3.9%),

dairy butter (by 2.9%), and light wheat flour (by 2.1%). At the same time, a decrease in prices

was registered for tomato (by 45.2%), apples (by 19.9%), cucumber (by 19.7%), eggs (by

11.5%), rice (by 4.0%), and milk (by 2.1%).

Graphs 7: Average monthly retail prices for potatoes (somoni / kg)

Potatoes. Retail prices of potatoes are subject to seasonal fluctuations and also to fluctuations

in supply and demand. The highest seasonal price is normally recorded in the second quarter of

each year, prior to the first new harvest. In March 2016, the price of potatoes decreased by

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

ян

вар

ь

фев

рал

ь

мар

т

апр

ель

май

ию

нь

ию

ль

авгу

ст

сен

тяб

рь

октя

бр

ь

нояб

рь

дек

абр

ь

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



20.3% as compared to March 2015 and amounted to 1.89 somoni per kg, decreasing further to

1.64 somoni per kg by June 2016. In September 2016, the price of potato was lower by 3%

than in September 2015 (1.87 somoni per kg). In December 2016, the price of potato was 2.22

somoni per kg increasing by 31.4% as compared to December 2015.

In March 2017 the price of potato increased by 100% as compared to March 2016 and reached

3.87 somoni per kg. By the end of June 2017 the price of potatoes further increased and

reached 4.5 somoni per kg. In September 2017, the price of potato slightly decreased as

compared to August 2017, and increased by 2.0% as compared to September 2016.

Graph 8: Average monthly retail prices for flour (somoni / kg)

Flour. In March 2016 the price of flour decreased by 7.0% as compared to March 2015 and

amounted to 3.1 somoni per kg. In June 2016 the price of four decreased by 8.26% as

compared to June 2015 and amounted to 3.15 somoni per kg. During the period from

September to December 2016, the price of flour remained almost unchanged at the level of

3.11 somoni per kg.

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

2

2,1

2,2

2,3

2,4

2,5

2,6

2,7

2,8

2,9

3

3,1

3,2

3,3

3,4

3,5

3,6

3,7

ян

ва

рь

фев

ра

ль

ма

рт

ап

рел

ь

ма

й

ию

нь

ию

ль

ав

густ

сен

тяб

рь

ок

тяб

рь

но

яб

рь

дек

аб

рь

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017



132

In March 2017 the price of flour slightly decreased as compared to March 2016 and amounted

to 3.06 somoni per kg. By the end of June 2017, the price of flour increased again (by 1.5%)

reaching 3.2 somoni per kg. The price of flour in September 2017 increased by 2.3% as

compared to September 2016 (see Graph 8).

3.2. Incomes and expenditures

The source of information on household incomes and expenditures are the Household Budget

Surveys. Starting from January 2009, the surveys are being conducted on a quarterly basis

with coverage of 3000 households; while in 2008, the surveys were conducted monthly with

coverage of 925 households. The following information is being collected: demographic

information / family composition; housing and infrastructure; consumption, including

domestically manufactured items; economic activity in both agricultural and non-agricultural

sectors.

3.2.1. Incomes

In January – September 2017, the real per capita cash income increased by 9.1% as compared

to January – September 2016 and amounted to 340.41 somoni per a month (See Table 9).

Table 9: Trends in population incomes and expenditures

January –

September 2016

January –

September 2017

Average per capita incomes (somoni / month) 289.42 340.41

Growth in real incomes (%) 101.5 109.1

Average monthly salary 924.99 1138.11

Growth in real salary (%) 101.0 114.1

Average per capita expenditures (somoni/month) 275.13 317.72

Growth in real expenditures (%) 100.6 107.1

Source: Household Budget Surveys and current statistical data

The most important sources of cash incomes of households in January – September 2017

continued to remain labor incomes (51.4%), pensions and allowances (7.3%), and receipts from

sales of agricultural products (6.3%). The gap between the average incomes of the highest and

the lowest deciles amounted to 10.8 times (against 10.0 times in January – September 2016).

3.2.2. Expenditures

In January – September of 2016 and 2017, the average expenditures of population have risen

mainly due to increase in prices (see Appendix 8 and Graph 9).



In the reporting period, the gap between average expenditures of the highest and the lowest

deciles was 3.7 times.

Graph 9: Growth of per capita expenditures by decile groups

in January – September of 2016 and 2017

3.3. Poverty in the Republic of Tajikistan

Poverty and food & nutrition insecurity are closely related and form a vicious circle. Food and

nutrition insecurity is defined as “When people lack secure access to sufficient amounts of safe

and nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and healthy life. It may

be caused by the unavailability of food, insufficient purchasing power, inappropriate

distribution, or inadequate use of food at the household level. Food insecurity, poor conditions

of health and sanitation, and inappropriate care and feeding practice are the major causes of

poor nutritional status. Food insecurity may be chronic (persistent), seasonal or transitory.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

10% наименее

обеспеченного

населения

10% наиболее


населения



населения



населения



населения



населения

9 месяцев 2016 года

9 месяцев 2017 года

среднемесячные расходы на душу населения за 9 месяцев 2016 года

среднемесячные расходы на душу населения за 9 месяцев 2017года

Все домохозяйства город село All Households Urban Rural

January – September 2016

January – September 2017

Average per capita expenditures in January – September of 2016

Average per capita expenditures in January – September of 2017



134

3.3.1. Food insecurity: households spending more than 50% of expenditures on food

Food insecurity means a situation when people have no regular physical, economic or social

access to adequate quantities of qualitative and safe food required for their nutrition, which

meets their preferences for an active and healthy life.

In 2016, share of expenditures for food in the structure of the total household’s expenditures in

urban area decreased by 2.4% as compared to 2015; in rural areas it decreased by 1.4%. Share

of expenditures for food among households having 3 and more children also increased by

4.7%, while among pensioners this indicator decreased by 0.4%.

In January – September 2017, share of consumer expenditures for food in the structure of the

total household’s expenditures in urban area increased by 0.5% as compared to January –

September of 2016; in rural areas it decreased by 2.6%. Share of expenditures for food among

households having 3 and more children decreased by 1.7%, while among pensioners this

indicator increased by 6.1% (see Table 10).

Table 10: Share of consumer expenditures for food

in the total structure of household expenditures (in %)

January – September

2016

January – September

2017

Republic of Tajikistan 56.6 55.0

Urban 54.4 54.9

Rural 57.7 55.1

Regions

Dushanbe 54.6 53.6

GBAO 60.6 58.5

Soghd oblast 45.6 46.3

Khatlon oblast 59.6 57.9

RRS 56.7 54.2

Vulnerable groups of population

Households having 3 and more children 56.1 54.4

Pensioners 55.4 61.5

More detailed information on expenditures, incomes and deciles is available in Appendix 5.

CHAPTER IV. USE AND UTILIZATION

Use of food refers to the selection, composition, preparation and allocation of food within

the family. Utilization of food refers to the ability of human body to take and use food within

the body. Food consumption covers knowledge of appropriate diets, and proper allocation of

food within the family. The ability of the body to utilize food is affected by its state of health

and access to clean drinking water, access to basic health services, etc. The ultimate measure

of food security is the nutritional status of the population.



4.1. Consumption of food products by the population

In 2016, the average daily calorie intake per one household member was 2462.13 Kcal per

capita against 2430.79 Kcal per capita in 2015, which was slightly above the recommendations

of the World Health Organization (WHO) (2100 Kcal per a day).

In January - September of 2017, the average daily calorie intake per one household member

was 2611.85 Kcal per capita against 2462.13 Kcal per capita in January - September of 2016.

In January – September 2017, consumption of bread and bread products in all regions of

Tajikistan was on average 119.42 kg per one household member.

In January – September 2017, the average consumption of potato in Tajikistan amounted to

30.39 kg per capita, vegetables and melons – 133.39 kg, milk and dairy products – 49.48 kg,

meat and meat products – 10.75kg, vegetable oil –12.09 kg, eggs – 61 pieces, sugar and

confectionery –11.09 kg, and fruits – 30.06 kg. In the total structure of household’s

expenditures for food, bread and bread products occupies the first place (29.6%).

It should be noted that the consumption of food products varies by decile groups of the

population. Thus, in January – September 2017, the average per capita consumption of bread

and bread products in 10% most well-off population group exceeded that in 10% least well-of

population group by 8.1%, potatoes – by 27.9 times, meat and meat products – by 3.4 times,

eggs – by 150%, fruits – by 140%, vegetables and melons – by 80%, sugar and confectionery –

by 50%.

Graph 10: Structure of consumer’s basket in September of 2016 and 2017

(as of the end of the month, in %, per one household member)

Appendix 8 shows the detailed information on per capita food consumption in

households of the Republic of Tajikistan.

fruits and vegetables

vegetable oil

sugar eggs

bread products

dairy products

meat products

others

September 2017 September 2016



136

Table 11: Nutritional values of foods consumed per a day (excluding beer and wine)

Per one

household

member per

a day

of which: Per one

household

member per

a day

urban area

of which:

urban area rural area urban area rural area

January - September of 2016 January - September of 2017

Proteins, gr. 56.4 51.17 58.40 60.07 56.60 61.33

of which

animal, gr. 11.06 8.94 11.83 10.59 9.68 10.91

Fats, gr. 62.44 57.09 64.43 64.30 63.26 64.68

of which

animal, gr. 15.35 13.95 15.86 14.18 14.06 14.22

Carbohydrate,

gr. 374.71 340.19 387.52 404.84 389.41 410.41

Caloric value

of consumed

food, k/calories 2462.13 2248.93 2541.40 2611.85 2544.93 2635.94

of which

animal, gr. 254.50 203.33 273.06 231.65 207.42 240.41

4.2. Food security indicators not related to income

4.2.1 Population morbidity

Table 12. Population morbidity caused by some specific infection diseases (cases)

2016 2017

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3

Total number of registered cases 7224 13777 28393 8517 13619 27340

Acute enteric infections 1889 9079 23223 2653 8907 23833

of which:

Bacterial dysentery 43 154 276 38 72 289

Typhoid fever 3 17 13 2 12 29

Acute viral hepatitis 1819 1001 3097 1700 480 870

Tuberculosis 909 1322 902 1091 1381 1072

Brucellosis 150 327 244 185 393 361

Parasitic diseases 8700 13542 10382 8759 11609 11241



In the third quarter of 2017, incidence of infection diseases among population decreased by

3.7% as compared to the third quarter of 2016. Cases of acute enteric infections accounted for

87.2% of the total number of infection diseases and increased by 2.6%.

As compared to the similar period of the previous year, the number of cases of bacterial

dysentery increased by 4.7%, typhoid fever - by 120% (from 13 to 29 cases), tuberculosis – by

18.8%, brucellosis – by 48.0%, and parasitic diseases – by 8.3%.

At the same time, the number of cases of acute viral hepatitis decreased by 71.9% as compared

to the third quarter of 2016 and accounted for 3.2% of the total number of diseases.

Table 13. Morbidity of children (0-14 years) by some specific infection diseases

(cases)

2016 2017

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3

Total number of registered cases 4711 9524 21306 5443 9437 20860

Acute enteric infections 1290 7161 17807 2010 7304 19329

of which:

Bacterial dysentery 14 74 145 19 35 145

Typhoid fever 0 0 2 2 1 16

Acute viral hepatitis 1561 825 2825 1495 341 704

Tuberculosis 51 78 85 44 75 56

Brucellosis 18 33 20 22 40 32

Parasitic diseases 1687 3124 2823 3327 7184 6809

In the third quarter of 2017, incidence of infection diseases among children aged 0-14

decreased by 2.1% as compared to the third quarter of 2016; infection deceases accounted for

76.3% of the total number of deceases among children aged 0-14. Cases of acute enteric

infections accounted for 92.7% of the total number of infection diseases among children aged

0-14, increasing by 8.5% as compared to the similar period of the previous year.

During the reporting period, a number of the registered cases of typhoid fever among children

aged 0-14 increased by 8.0 times (from 2 to 16 cases), brucellosis – by 60.0%, parasitic

diseases – by 140%.

At the same time, cases of acute viral hepatitis decreased by 75.1% as compared to the similar

period of 2016, tuberculosis – by 34.1%.



138

4.2.2. Birth, mortality, and natural population growth rates

In January – September 2017, offices of civil registration registered 161.9 thsd. births3 (births

registered within the stipulated period, excluding re-registration of births for the previous

years) and 24.7 thsd. deaths, of which 1.6 thsd. deaths fell on the children below 1 year.

According to preliminary estimates, the average birth and mortality rates amounted to 24.5 and

3.7 per 1000 population, respectively.

Table 14: Registered births, deaths, and natural population growth in 2016 and 2017 Number of registered births

(registered within the

stipulated period)

Number of registered

deaths

Natural population

growth

Number in % to the corresponding period of the previous year

Number in % to the corresponding period of the previous year

Number in % to the corresponding period of

the previous year

2016

1 quarter 57237 106.3 9087 104.2 48150 106.7

2 quarter 53207 99.0 8047 93.4 45160 100.1

3 quarter 54217 97.8 7403 101.3 46814 97.3

4 quarter 65659 93.9 8496 103.2 57163 92.7

Year 2016 230320 98.9 33033 100.5 197287 98.6

2017

1 quarter 56487 98.7 9063 99.7 47424 98.5

2 quarter 50051 94.1 8177 101.6 41874 92.7

3 quarter 55348 102.1 7417 100.2 47931 102.4

3 Registration of births within a calendar year

Graph 11. Number of births and deaths registered

by offices of civil registration in 2012-2017



In January – September 2017, decrease in the number of registered births (births registered

within the stipulated period) reached 1.7% (2.8 thsd.births). The number of births registered

within the statutory period decreased in Sogd oblast (by 3.4% amounting to 42.9 thsd.births),

Khatlon oblast (by 1.7%; 64.7 thsd.births), and in RRS ( by 1.4%; 39.6 thsd.births ). The

number of births registered within the statutory period increased in GBAO and Dushanbe by

3.6% and 3.2%, respectively, as compared to the similar period of 2016, amounting to 3.5

thsd.births and 11.2 thsd.births, respectively.

Table 15: Registered births, deaths, and natural population growth

in January – September of 2016 and 2017

Number of

registered births

(registered within

the stipulated

period)

Number of

registered deaths

Natural population

growth

2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017

persons

Tajikistan 164661 161886 24537 24657 140124 137229

GBAO 3376 3497 836 776 2540 2721

Sogd oblast 44398 42888 8187 8321 36211 34567

Khatlon oblast 65836 64686 8433 8370 57403 56316

Dushanbe 10865 11211 1937 1959 8928 9252

RRS 40186 39604 5144 5231 35042 34373

per 1000 population

Tajikistan 25.5 24.5 3.8 3.7 21.7 20.8

GBAO 20.6 21.1 5.1 4.7 15.5 16.4

Sogd oblast 23.4 22.2 4.3 4.3 19.1 17.9

Khatlon oblast 28.5 27.4 3.7 3.5 24.9 23.8

Dushanbe 18.0 18.3 3.2 3.2 14.8 15.1

RRS 26.9 25.9 3.4 3.4 23.4 22.5

In January – September 2017, the total number of registered deaths was 24.7 thsd., increasing

by 0.5% as compared to the similar period of the previous year. Increase in the number of

registered deaths (as compared to January – September 2016) was observed in Sogd oblast (by

1.6%, 8.3 thsd. deaths), RRS (by 1.7%, 5.2 thsd. deaths), and Dushanbe - by 1.1% (2.0 thsd.

deaths). The total number of registered deaths in GBAO decreased by 7.2% (776 deaths) as

compared to January – September 2016, in Khatlon oblast - by 0.7%, 8.4 thsd. deaths).

According to preliminary estimates, the natural population growth in January – September

2017 was 137.2thsd.persons (20.8 persons per 1000 population) and decreased by 2.1% as

compared to January – September 2016.



140

Table 16: Population number

The below Table shows the population number, including registered births, deaths, and migration:

Population number as of

01.10.2017, thsd.persons

in % to the corresponding

period of 2016

Republic of Tajikistan 8875.0 102.2

GBAO 222.2 101.3

Sogd oblast 2593.5 101.9

Khatlon oblast 3178.9 102.5

Dushanbe 823.5 101.6

RRS 2056.9 102.4



METHODOLOGY

1. Methodology of food security analysis

“Food and nutrition security is achieved if adequate food (quantity, safety, quality, social -

cultural acceptance) is available and accessible for and satisfactory used and utilized by all

individuals at all time to live a healthy and active life”.

Availability physical existence of quantitatively and qualitatively adequate and safe food

items.

Access: all households and household members have sufficient resources to obtain

appropriate food (through production, purchase or donation)

Use and utilization: adequate knowledge, health and sanitation to enable the human

body to digest and utilize that food

Stability: continuous ensuring of availability of, access to and appropriate use and

utilization of food. If not, individuals will suffer from chronic or transitory food insecurity

For case of reference the four pillars of food and nutrition security are pictured below:

All four dimensions need to be fulfilled if there is to be food and nutrition security. As

individuals and households live in a society, the 4 dimensions of FNS need to co-exist at all

levels, from the individual and household level (micro level), to the community (village,

rayon, oblast) level, representing the meso level, and the nation and global level (macro level).

To monitor food security it is necessary to select relevant indicators and to measure these

indicators at regular intervals.



142

2. Food balance methodology

Food balances for basic foodstuffs are compiled in natural terms.

In the course of the compilation of the food balance, the closing stocks as of December

31 in one year become the opening stocks on January 1 in the following year. With

regard to imports and exports of products, the official data was used, in respect of

production preliminary data.

Seed use is calculated on areas sown with agricultural crops as well as actual amount of

seeds used for 1 ha. The calculation of lost was made according to the official norms.

In order to determine the number of eggs for the incubation the actual number of poultry

offspring as well as norms on the number of chicken from the eggs laid for incubation.

The calculation of the volume of food products consumed by population as well as

expenses on animal feeding was based on the data obtained during the survey of 3000

households. The calculation of meat consumption also included the meat consumed in the

course of observing national traditions (funeral, weddings, religious feasts, etc.)



Glossary

The unemployed- people of 16 and more who during period under review had no job

(profitable occupation); were in search for a job i.e. applied to public employment offices or

used alternative ways of job finding as well as were ready to start working.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- a general indicator of economic activity which is calculated

in basic and market prices (nominal GDP) and in comparable prices (real GDP).

Consumer price index on goods and paid services to the population (CPI)- characterizes the

change in the general price level for goods and services over time. The index measures the

correlation of the value of actually set of goods and services during the given period to the

value thereof during the basic period.

Average nominal monthly salary is calculated by dividing actually accrued salary fund to the

staff and part-time employees by the number used for the calculation of average salary and

number of months in a year during corresponding period.

Average daily per capita calorie intake measure the calories in the consumed food products

per one household member as well as chemical composition in protein and fats.

Official unemployment rate- the ratio of people officially registered as unemployed to the

number of economically active population, expressed in per cent.

List of abbreviations

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GBAO Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast

CPI Consumer price index on goods and paid services to the population

RRS Regions of republican subordination

MDG Millennium Development Goals



144

Appendix 1

Review of meteorological conditions on the territory of

the Republic of Tajikistan in the third quarter of 2017

Meteorological conditions

July was characterized by moderately warm air temperature. The average monthly air

temperature was mainly above the norm in valleys; air temperature in the second half of the

days was within +35+40 degrees, while the ground temperature reached +60+70 degrees.

The period from 5 to 10 July was mainly characterized by hot weather, when the air

temperature exceeded the norm by 2-5 degrees.

The hottest weather was observed during the period from 5 to 7 July and from 8 to 10 July:

+40+46 degrees in the most regions of the republic, +32+27 degrees in some mountainous

regions of RRS and in the western part of GBAO (+40 degrees in Darvaz), and +19+24 degrees

in the eastern part of GBAO.

Dushanbe-city also experienced very hot weather (up to +43.7 degrees); similar weather was

observed in 1932 and 2001 (when the air temperature reached +43.4 degrees).

Thunders and lightning were observed in some mountainous regions of the republic during 5-7

days of July, while southern part of the republic experienced mist and dust.

Forecast accuracy was 100%.

August was dry and hot. The average monthly air temperature in most valleys and piedmonts

was within the norm or above the norm by 10 degrees (30 degrees in Khusher and Dehavz, in

Navobod – by 10 degrees below the norm) The air temperature was +24+28 degrees in valleys

and piedmonts, +18+23 degrees in mountainous regions (+28 degrees in Darvaz), and +10+12

degrees in high mountains of GBAO.

The highest air temperature was registered in the first decade of the month as well as on 29-31

August, when the maximum air temperature reached +37+40 degrees in valleys, +42 degrees in

some southern regions, +29+34 degrees in mountainous regions (+36+38 degrees in Darvaz).

During this period, the average monthly air temperature exceeded the norm by 2-4 degrees.

During the first decade of the month, air temperature at nights ranged between +19 and +24

degrees in valleys, and +12+17 degrees in mountainous regions (+19+24 degrees in Darvaz).



Rains were registered in the second and third decades of the month. During these periods, the

maximum air temperature reached +32+35 degrees in valleys (+13+18 degrees at nights),

+23+27 degrees in mountainous regions (+7+12 degrees at nights), and +16+19 degrees in

Darvaz. The average air temperature during these periods was below the norm by 1-4 degrees.

The first decade of the month was characterized by short-term rains in some mountainous

regions and piedmonts. The average monthly amount of precipitations in most regions of the

republic was below the norm: 0-44% of the norm in Sogd Oblast, 0-38% - in RRS, and 0-43%

- in GBAO.

September. The warmest weather during the month was observed in Khatlon oblast. The

average monthly air temperature in the most regions of the republic was above the norm by 1-3

degrees (within the norm in some regions of the republic and below the norm by 1-2 degrees in

some mountainous regions and piedmonts), as follows: +17+22 degrees in valleys and

piedmonts, +14+19 degrees in mountains (+9 degrees in Dehavz and +24 degrees in Darvaz),

and +5+8 degrees in GBAO.

The maximum air temperature in valleys ranged within +31+36 degrees. A short-term decrease

in air temperature in valleys was registered at the end of September, when a day-time air

temperature fell by 4-6 degrees (to +20+26 degrees in valleys, and to +13+21 degrees in Sogd

oblast).

Short-term rains were observed at the end of September in the northern and western part of the

republic, in RRS and in Sogd oblast. Water snow was registered in Dehavz and Istaravshan at

night on 29-30 September. Mists and dusts were observed on 28-30 September in valleys of

RRS and Khatlon oblast.

The average monthly amount of precipitations in most regions of the republic was above the

norm, as follows: 223-340% of the norm in Sogd Oblast, 0-12% of the norm in Khatlon oblast,

24-307% - in RRS, and 42-495% - in GBAO (except for Isgkashim – 0%).

Hydrological conditions

July. Gradual decrease of water content in rivers of the republic was observed. Only at the end

of the first decade of the month, increased air temperature in the area of glacial rivers (Gund,

Vakhsh, Obihingou, and Zeravshan) caused increase of water content in rivers of the republic.



146

The average monthly water discharge of the most rivers was within and above the norm (104-

347% ), except for water content of Karatag, Yahsu, and Varzob rivers (below the norm - 36-

86%).

During the month, water content of Nurek reservoir increased by 989 mln.m3 and amounted to

10029 mln.m3, which is less by 360 mln.m3 than the level of the previous year. Water level in

Kairakum reservoir decreased by 137 mln.m3 and amounted to 2362 mln.m3, which is higher

by 620 mln.m3 than the level of the previous year.


August. Decrease of water content in rivers of the republic was observed. The average monthly

water discharge in the most rivers was within or below the norm (43-112%), except for Yahsu-

Vose, Kizilsu – Somonchi and Gund – Harog rivers (135-244%).


10545 mln.m3, which is less by 9 mln.m3 than the level of the previous year. Water level in

Kairakum reservoir decreased by 99 mln.m3 and amounted to 3163 mln.m3, which is higher by

993 mln.m3 than the level of the previous year.


September. Gradual decrease of water content in rivers of the republic continued. The average

monthly water discharge in the most rivers was within or below the norm (55-102%), except

for Vaksh – Darband, Zeravshan – Dupuli, and Kizilsu – Somonchi rivers (116 – 151% of the

norm).


10574 mln.m3, remaining on the level of the previous year. Water level in Kairakum reservoir

increased by 226 mln.m3 and amounted to 3389 mln.m3, which is higher by 1115 mln.m3 than

the level of the previous year.




Attachment 2. Key Target Indicators of the NDS-2030

NDS Indicator Unit 2015 2016 I quarter

of 2017

II

quarter

of 2017

III

quarter

of 20171)

Industrial scenario

2020 2025 2030

Population number (as of the end of the year) thsd.persons 8551.2

(as of 01.01.2016)

8742.8

(as of 01.01.2017)

8789.2

(as of 01.04.17)

8829.3

(as of 01.07.17)

8875.0

(as of 01.10.17)

9500 10490 11580

Real GDP growth rate on average per year % 6.0 6.9 6.5 6.0 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.8

6-7

GDP per capita somoni 5728 6299 х х х 8430 12297 17754

Gross domestic savings to GDP % 13.0 12.2 х х х 22 26 28

The share of private investment in GDP % 4.6 3.5 2.7 3.1 2.5 10 15 18

The share of industry in GDP % 13.3 15.1 19.7 18.9 17.1

12.5-

13.2 16 20-20.5

Including:

- Extractive industry % 1.7 2.7 4.2 4.1 3.9 11-12 11-11.5 9-10

- Processing industry % 8.7 9.1 10.0 10.4 9.7 72-74 74-75 76-75.5

- Production and distribution of gas, water and

energy % 2.9 3.3 5.5 4.4 3.5 15-16 14.0-14.5 14-14.5

The share of agriculture in GDP % 22.0 20.7 5.4 12.7 20.7 21 20.1 19-19.5

The share of services in GDP (excluding

construction) % 41.0 41.7 53.6 46.5 41.3 37-37.5 34-34.2

28.5-

29.5

Net indirect taxes in GDP % 12.6 11.3 12.8 12.4 11.1 12.6 12.5 12.5

Electricity generation, total bln. kW.

hour 17.1 17.1 4.9 4.2 4.6 26.2 37.5 40.7

Electric power generation at HPP bln. kW. 16.8 16.5 4.5 4.2 4.6 24.5 34.4 37.6




of 2017

II

quarter

of 2017

III

quarter

of 20171)

Industrial scenario

2020 2025 2030

hour

Electricity generation per capita

thous. kW.

hour /

person. 2.02 1.9 0.57 0.48 0.65 2.78 3.64 3.67

The growth of industrial production (in % to

2015) % 111.2 116.0 119.4 121.9 122.0 160 260 400

Oil extraction thous. tons 24.6 25.1 5.6 6.1 5.9 25.0 30.0 36.0

Gas production thous. m3 4102 3290 528 351.5 320.7 4600 5000 6000

Coal mining mln. tons 1.0 1.4 0.16 0.4 0.7 4.05 6.9 10.3

Cargo turnover bln. t. Km 6.0

5.5

1.2 1.6 1.6 7.9 9.2 12.3

Passenger traffic billion.

passengers.

km 9.2

9.1

2.2 2.2 2.7 13.2 15.5 20.6

Life expectancy at birth,

including

- Men

- Women

years

73.6

71.8

75.6

73.7

71.9

75.7

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

75.7

73.8

77.7

77.8

75.9

80.0

80.0

78.0

82.2

The share of persons with vocational education

among the working population, including women

of them women

% 26

20

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

…

not less

than 30

not less

than 24

not less

than 50

not less

than 40

not less

than 60

not less

than 50

Real wage growth (average annual growth) % 1.8 3.2 12.1 14.2 14,1 5




of 2017

II

quarter

of 2017

III

quarter

of 20171)

Industrial scenario

2020 2025 2030

The ratio of women's wages to men's wages % 61.1 64.0 … … … 65 70 75

Coverage of children from three to six years old

with pre-school education

% of the age

group 8.7 8.5 … … … 30 40 50

The average number of years of study in school years 9.6 … … … … 10 11 12

Total expenditure on science % of GDP 0.15 0.12 0.1 0.1 ????? Not less

than 0.8

Not less

than 1.2

Not less

than 1.5

The growth of real pensions (average annual

growth)

%

-6.3 12.4 … … … 6

The level of housing provision m2 / person 12 … … … … 13 15 17

The poverty rate % 31 30.3 … … … 20 18 15

The extreme poverty rate % 15.7 14.0 … … … - - 0

Gender Inequality Index rating 69 out of 155

countries … … … … Not less than

60

Not less than

55

Not less than

50

Gender Development Index

group

3d group

according to

the level of development

…

… … …

In the 2d

group according to

the level of

development

In the 2d group

according to

the level of development

In the 2d

group according to

the level of

development

The share of employment in the informal sector % 49,02

15,73

… … … 37 35 30 1 )

preliminary data 2) labor force surveys-2009 3) labor force surveys-2016



APPENDIX 3. CHANGES IN AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICES (SUPPLY) IN TAJIKISTAN (somoni / kg)

I quarter II quarter III quarter IV quarter

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016

Potatoes

GBAO - - - 3.50 1.80 4.50 2.0 2.66 3.45 3.46 2.20 3.29

Soghd Oblast 1.39 0.78 3.19 0.90 0.95 3.60 1.14 1.15 2.40 1.29 1.00 1.13

Khatlon Oblast 1.16 1.30 - 1.19 1.47 2.68 1.39 1.53 2.30 2.0 1.38 1.82

RRS 1.0 1.31 1.28 0.99 0.98 3.35 1.46 1.35 2.82 2.0 1.76 1.62

Average in the Republic 1.37 0.80 3.19 1.17 1.18 2.97 1.32 1.34 2.31 2.86 1.39 1.58

Milk

GBAO 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.6 4.60 3.2 4.0 4.5 4.0 3.7 4.50

Soghd Oblast 1.68 1.62 2.49 1.44 1.75 2.60 1.57 2.34 2.40 1.48 1.51 1.51

Khatlon Oblast 1.90 2.0 2.37 1.81 2.45 2.50 1.87 2.75 2.35 1.5 1.98 2.18

RRS 1.87 2.86 2.37 2.83 2.72 2.75 2.83 2.74 2.75 2.80 2.73 2.69

Average in the Republic 1.86 1.07 2.54 2.48 2.43 2.51 2.10 2.50 2.65 2.30 2.19 1.85

Wheat

GBAO - - - 2.0 - 2.60 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.52 2.00

Soghd Oblast 1.31 1.36 1.29 1.30 1.54 1.74 1.2 1.34 1.45 1.17 1.22 1.35

Khatlon Oblast 1.04 - 1.40 1.71 1.88 1.65 1.7 1.81 1.90 1.56 1.71 1.55

RRS 1.35 1.71 1.96 1.42 0.8 1.54 1.3 1.28 1.63 1.13 1.50 1.25

Average in the Republic 1.22 1.42 1.57 1.60 1.69 1.68 1.50 1.50 1.52 1, 32 1.52 1.38



APPENDIX 4. CHANGES IN AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICES IN TAJIKISTAN in 2014 – 2017 (somoni / kg)


2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016

Potatoes

Dushanbe 2.99 2.29 1.95 3.15 1.98 3.10 2.10 1.88 4.62 1.97 1.92 3.80 3.07 1.93 2.03

Soghd Oblast 2.76 1.95 1.68 2.73 1.61 2.91 2.08 1.64 4.77 1.43 1.65 3.13 2.75 1.57 1.80

Khatlon Oblast 2.93 2.16 1.94 2.83 1.94 3.14 1.86 1.70 4.54 2.01 1.94 3.80 3.07 1.93 2.17

GBAO х х х х х 3.74 х х 5.78 х х 5.17 х х х

Average in the Republic 2.89 2.13 1.86 2.90 1.85 3.22 2.01 1.74 4.93 1.80 1.84 3.97 2.96 1.81 2.00

Milk

Dushanbe 3.96 3.90 3.74 4.33 4.00 4.43 3.43 3.50 3.63 3.57 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.27 3.97

Soghd Oblast 3.00 3.01 2.96 3.00 3.03 3.00 3.00 2.92 2.98 3.00 2.92 2.97 3.00 3.05 2.98

Khatlon Oblast 3.11 3.51 3.53 3.81 3.79 3.68 3.36 3.33 3.33 3.20 3.39 3.37 3.00 3.67 3.62



Flour of 1st grade

Dushanbe 2.91 3.86 3.16 3.38 3.40 3.18 3.48 3.29 3.34 3.57 3.15 3.32 3.12 5.00 3.0

Soghd Oblast 2.64 3.65 2.90 3.08 3.14 3.02 3.26 3.02 3.09 3.28 2.87 3.08 2.90 4.98 2.87

Khatlon Oblast 2.89 3.72 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.28 3.45 3.33 3.31 3.50 3.12 3.31 3.11 4.67 3.13






2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016

Wheat

Dushanbe 2.20 2.40 2.47 2.09 2.50 2.50 2.61 2.47 2.54 2.40 2.45 2.73 2.15 2.50 2.45

Soghd Oblast 1.71 1.95 1.85 2.03 1.88 1.88 2.18 1.89 2.01 1.97 1.80 2.13 1.87 1.77 1.84

Khatlon Oblast 1.57 1.87 1.96 1.78 1.87 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.10 1.81 2.00 2.11 1.60 1.81 1.95


Rice

Dushanbe 8.88 9.73 10.03 9.00 10.50 7.83 9.50 10.20 7.0 10.73 10.20 7.00 9.17 10.30 9.23

Soghd Oblast 6.53 7.52 6.73 6.93 6.89 5.77 7.67 6.64 5.82 8.37 6.89 6.43 7.15 7.12 6.49

Khatlon Oblast 6.83 7.66 7.28 6.66 7.31 6.82 7.30 7.39 6.82 8.45 7.43 6.91 6.72 8.23 6.98



Sand sugar

Dushanbe 5.02 5.70 6.95 5.25 6.67 6.87 5.48 7.00 7.58 6.02 7.03 7.80 5.00 6.05 7.0

Soghd Oblast 4.83 5.59 6.85 5.02 6.63 6.68 5.52 6.79 7.43 5.84 6.97 7.42 4.99 5.99 7.01

Khatlon Oblast 4.86 5.57 7.14 5.00 6.73 7.07 5.47 7.01 7.53 5.78 7.42 7.77 4.98 6.03 7.38


Average in the Republic

4.90 5.62 6.98 5.08 6.68 7.14 5.49 6.93 7.64 5.88 7.14 7.92 4.99 6.02 7.16




2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016

Onion

Dushanbe 2.15 2.10 1.47 3.10 1.87 2.05 1.90 1.35 2.43 1.70 1.27 3.52 2.57 1.72 1.40

Soghd Oblast 1.83 1.78 1.32 2.70 1.42 1.83 1.97 1.26 2.66 1.25 0.99 3.06 2.48 1.21 1.22

Khatlon Oblast 2.17 1.98 1.50 3.04 1.99 2.49 1.86 1.20 2.68 1.41 1.21 3.48 2.62 1.61 1.62

GBAO х х

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