rural transformation for food security and poverty reduction · povertyand food security in egypt...
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Rural Transformation for Food Security and Poverty Reduction
Racha Ramadan
Applying Quantitative Analysis to Development Issues
Conference
Bilbliotheca Alexandrina- 2018
Motivation
• “Structural transformation is defined as the shift of an
economy’s structure from low-productivity, labour-intensive
activities to higher productivity, capital and skill intensive
activities” (Structural Transformation in Developing countries
–UN Habitat).
• As a result of successful structural change; employment
move from lower to higher productivity sectors and output
in lower productivity sectors increases.
• Under structural transformation, the relative importance of
agriculture sector to the overall economy decreases!!
2
Take Home Messages
• Rural transformation matters for poverty reduction and
food security.
• At advanced stages of structural and rural
transformation, agribusiness and agro-industry play an
important role.
• Micro data is needed to better understand rural
transformation and its impact on households’ welfare.
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Structural Transformation Drawbacks
• Widening the gap between urban and rural labor
productivity.
• Women are trapped in low productivity sectors
(Marotta et al, 2015).
• Low agricultural per capita output and productivity
lead to dreadful effects on food security and social
stability. Especially in a context of food crisis.
• The difficulties in feeding rapidly growing cities.
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Rural Transformation
• Under structural transformation, the relative importance ofagriculture sector to the overall economy decreases, butproductivity of agriculture sector should increase.
• Rural Transformation!
• “Rural transformation involves rising agricultural productivity,increasing commercialization and marketable surpluses, anddiversification of production patterns and livelihoods. It alsoinvolves expanded decent off-farm employment andentrepreneurial opportunities, better rural coverage andaccess to services and infrastructure, and greater access to,and capacity to influence, relevant policy processes”. (IFAD,2016).
• Advantages of rural transformation include transition out ofpoverty, women empowerment and ensuring food security.
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6
Agricultural Development, Rural development and Rural Transformation
are intertwinted with other larges processes
Stylized Facts
8
5 3 8 5 6 5 8 624 18 20 17
33 3337
34 31 27
41 38
3028
3625
62 6355 60 63 67
50 5646 54
4458
2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015
Central
Europe and
the Baltics
East Asia &
Pacific
Latin America
& the
Caribbean
Middle East &
North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
Distribution of VA by sectors (% of GDP) in different regions
Agriculture Industrial Services
Source: World Development Indicators
9Source: World Development Indicators
17 11 13 14 11 11
3336 30 29 30 27
50 53 57 56 58 62
2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015
Egypt Morocco Tunisia
Distribution of VA by sectors (% of GDP) in three MENA
countries
Agriculture Industry Service
Rural Transformation - Poverty Food Security
11
y = 0.4183x + 0.7767
R² = 0.2028
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
Gro
wth
Rural Transformation
Agricultural VA per Worker and GDP per capita(2000-2015)
12
y = -0.0005x + 43.718
R² = 0.3537
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000
Pr.
of
Ch
ild
ren
su
ffe
rin
g f
om
an
em
ia
Ag VA per worker
Agricultural VA per Worker and Food Security
Egypt
Poverty and Food Security in Egypt
Poverty and Food security is an important challenge facing
the Egyptian government:
o 27.8 percent of the population considered as poor in
2014/2015.
o A prevalence of undernourishment of 5 percent
2014/2015.
15
9 10 11
15
22
2729
32
2000 2004 2008 2010
Urban and Rural Poverty
Urban poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of urban
population)
Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of rural population)
o Egypt suffers from the double burden of malnutrition;
under nutrition and over nutrition.
o In 2014, the proportion of children under-five-year-olds
who suffer from wasting has increased to 9.5%, those
suffering from stunting reached 22.3% and the proportion
of underweight reached 7%.
o Anemia among children under-five-year-olds increased
from 42% in 1990 to 45.4% in 2011.
o In the same period, the proportion of women (pregnant
and non-pregnant) suffering from anemia declined to
30% and 35% compared with 38% and 45% in 1990.
17
21 2121
20 20
2222 22
2324
25
24
2524 24
25
3029
28
30
3231 31
32 32
30
2829
2728
28
26
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Employment in Industry and in Agriculture (% of total Employment)
Employment in industry (% of total employment) Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)
18
1677 1749 1771 1817 1855 1907 1967 2025 2091 21582237 2305
23842470
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Agriculture Value Added per Worker (Constant 2005 US$)
Source: World Development Indicators
50 50 49 48 48 49 48 49 49 49 48 48 50 50 50 53 55
33 33 35 36 37 36 38 37 38 38 38 3839 39 39 36 33
17 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 14 14 15 11 11 11 11 12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Distribution of VA by sectors (% of GDP)
Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) Industry, value added (% of GDP)
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)
20
98
34
69
46
Agricltural activities industrial activities Commercial activities Craft
Distribution of Villages according to the Economic
Activities of its residents in Alexandria
Source: Egyptian Villages Survey- 2015 (4655 Villages)- CAPMAS
21Source: Egyptian Villages Survey- 2015 - CAPMAS
91
100
99
94
98
100
99
99
94
93
35
25
45
38
41
46
17
49
77
84
79
71
63
96
83
60
12
80
66
65
46
48
28
64
34
12
Damietta
Dakahlia
Sharkia
Qalubia
Kafr EL
Sheikh
Gharbia
Menoufia
Beheira
Ismailia
Distribution of Economic Activities in Villages of Lower Egypt
Craft Commercial activities industrial activities Agricltural activities
22Source: Egyptian Villages Survey- 2015 - CAPMAS
95
98
100
100
99
97
98
87
96
34
33
33
84
21
20
24
20
17
58
75
50
94
44
47
41
57
52
46
31
6
92
29
5
33
41
54
Giza
Beni Suef
Fayoum
Menya
Assiut
Sohag
Qena
Aswan
Luxor
Distribution of Economic Activities in Villages of Upper Egypt
Craft Commercial activities industrial activities Agricltural activities
Key Messages
• Rural transformation matters!
• Increasing Agricultural productivity is needed to
provide enough food supply to the increasing
demand resulted from urbanization.
• Micro data, in addition to Macro data, is needed to
better understand rural transformation and its impact
on households’ welfare.
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