EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia

Post Gu ’ 09 Assessment AnalysisFSEDC Meeting

August 21, 2009

Nairobi, Kenya

FSNAU Post Gu ’09 AssessmentOverall Timeline

FSNAU Gu ’09 AssessmentPartner Participation

Total Number of People Field (FS) & Workshop – Total 111

Local Authority 10Ministries 13Local NGOs 42International NGOs 12UN Agencies 35

REGIONNGO Government UN & Int’l TOTAL

Local Int’l MinistriesLocal

AuthoritiesGedo 10 1 4 1 16

Bakol 10 2 12

Central Region 4 6 1 11

Hiran 2 1 1 4

Middle Shabelle 1 3 4

Lower Shabelle

Northeast 1 7 3 11

Northwest 10 2 6 3 21

Juba Valley 4 3 2 9

Total 41 11 13 10 13 88

Analysis Workshop - Total 23

FEWSNET 3JRC-MARS 2WFP 14OCHA 2CEFA 1DEG GARAS 1

Total Number of Participating Partner Agencies (FS + Nut) 102

Local NGOs 47Int’l NGO’s 20Local Authority 12Ministries 15UN 5Int’l 3

Number of People Participating by Agency Food Security Field Assessment - Total 88

Gu ’08/09 Assessment Access and

Field Monitoring Locations

A.Sector Analysis

Summary Results

Gu ‘09 Seasonal Rains•Start on time (late March/ early April)•Ended early - in mid May in many parts of the country•Overall Performance - mixed, but largely below normal, especially in key pastoral regions of the north and central•Areas of Poor Rainfall:

Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug, Sool, Nugal, Togdheer, Sanaag and parts of Galbeed Parts of Lower Juba, North Gedo, and northern parts of Bakool

•Areas of Near Normal Rainfall Bay, Middle Juba, Lower and Middle ShabelleParts of Bakool, and south Gedo

Hagaa Seasonal Rains Good hagaa rains in Juba, and Shabelle and parts of Bay regionsJuba and Shabelle planted off season crop (maize and sesame).

Shabelle & Juba River Levels - below normal rainfall in Ethiopian highlands

Rain failure in northern Kenya – leading to abnormal livestock in-migration into Juba

ClimatePerformance of the Gu ’09 Rains

Source: FSAU /FEWSNET

NVDI AVHRR Anomaly June, 2009

Crop/vegetation condition has been good in Bay, Juba and Shabelle

Climate

Nugaal Valley, Vegetation conditions (NDVI) July 1981- June 2009

Emerging Drought in Northern Pastoral Areas

• Three consecutive seasons of below-normal rainfall – emerging drought• Pasture and grazing conditions deteriorated to an alarming degree, • NDVI 36-month average deviation normal; lower than 1990/92 & 2001/03 droughts

Climate

Deepening Drought in Central Pastoral Areas

Climate

Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

Civil Insecurity

Civil Insecurity Trends (Jan. – July ‘09)Precarious and mixed situation (Jan. – April)

• Slight improvement in some areas, but further deterioration in other areas

Deterioration Since May ‘09

1.Worsened in several areas of southern and central Somalia including Mogadishu, Belet Weyne, Elbur and Hara-dhere

2.With significant impact on both urban and rural

3.Fresh fighting exploded in Mogadishu between insurgents and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG),

4.Worst fighting seen in months, causing both civilian deaths and massive displacement within the country and towards refugee camps of Kenya

5.Main impact is in the main towns and on humanitarian operations

Civil Insecurity

Deterioration Since May ‘09

5. Resource-based conflict between clans and sub-clans, especially in drought areas (e.g. Central)

5. Improved Access and security situation of the ordinary people improved in some areas (e.g. L. Shabelle)

6. Continued Incidents of sea piracy have since January, despite multinational naval forces and efforts of the local people

Ongoing & Likely to Increase:

Direct Impacts

•Deaths, Injuries, human rights abuses

•Destruction of Assets (Public & Private)

•Increased Population Displacement – 1.4 million IDPs (40% increase since Jan. ‘09)

•Direct targeting of humanitarian and reduction of aid workers and responses

Indirect Impact:

• Disruptions of trade within the country and across regional borders (for example Ethiopia-Somalia) and likely price increase

• Restrictions of livestock migration between clans boundaries in Central/ Hiran/parts of M. Shabelle and difficult of the natural resource sharing (water, pasture and grazing)

• Further restrictions of humanitarian space

• Declining social support among livelihoods and wealth groups

Civil InsecurityMost Likely Scenario

(July- Dec. ’09)

Increased Likelihood of further Confrontation between different religious forces and TFG and different clans

Increased localized civil insecurity and clan tensions

Increased resource based conflicts, banditry and marine piracy

Kenyan border closure affecting IDP population movement and cross border trade mainly cattle and other commodities

Main Areas of Risk: Mogadishu, Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug including Galkacyo, Gedo and Juba regions

Main Impact: Mainly urban areas and trade movements in conflict areas, more limited direct impact on rural populations.

Somalia: Rangeland Conditions and

Livestock MigrationJuly ‘09

Livestock

Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Conception (Gu ‘09)

Calving/kidding (Gu ‘09)

Milk production (Gu ‘09)

Expected calving/ kidding July- Dec ’09

Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘09)

Livelihoods Livestock species

Gedo Camel & Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats: Medium

Camel: LowCattle: None Sheep/Goats: Low

Below Average for All species

Camel: low Cattle: NoneSh/goats: Medium

Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Same (Above Baseline)Sheep/goats: Slight decreased (Below Baseline)

Southern Agro-pastoral Camel: Same (Above Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Slight Decrease (Below Baseline)

Dawa Pastoral Camel: Same (Near Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Slight decrease (Below Baseline)

Juba Camel: Low Cattle: Low to NoneSheep/Goats: Medium

Camel: LowCattle: mediumSheep/Goats: Medium

Camel: lowCattle: NoneSheep/Goat: None

Camel: Medium Cattle: Low to NoneSh/goats: Medium

Southeast Pastoral Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)

Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Increase (Above Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)

Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)

Bakool

Camel: Low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Medium

Camel: NoneCattle: NoneSh/Goats: Low to Medium

Camel: LowCattle: NoneSh/Goats: Low

Low for All species

Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline)Sheep/goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)

B/Bakool Agro-pastoral Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)

Bay Camel: LowCattle: LowSh/Goats: Medium

Camel: LowCattle: Medium Sh/Goats: Medium to High

Camel: AverageCattle: LowSh/Goats: Average

Medium for all species

Southern Agro-pastoralCattle: Increase (Same as Baseline)Sheep/goats: Increased (Same as Baseline)

M/L Shabelle

L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: Low for all species

L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: Cattle, camel: Low Sh/goats: Medium to Low

M/Sh: Cattle, Goats: Below average Camel: AverageL/Sh: Average

M/Sh: Camel : MediumSh/goats: lowCattle: LowL/Sh: Average

Shabelle Agro-pastoral L/Shabelle: Increased all speciesM/Shabelle: Camel: increase Cattle &Sheep: Decreased (high deaths resulted from poor pasture & endemic disease)

Livestock SectorTrends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

Region Conception (Gu ‘09)

Calving/kidding (Gu ‘09)

Milk production (Gu ‘09)

Expected calving/ kidding July – Dec ‘09

Heard Size Recovery Projected at (Dec ‘09)

Livelihoods Livestock species

Hiiran Camel: Low Cattle: NoneSh/Goats: Medium to high

Camel: None to lowCattle: NoneSh/Goats: Medium to High

poor all species Camel: LowCattle: NoneGoat/sheep: Medium to High

Hawd Pastoral Camel: Same (Below Baseline)Sh/Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)

Southern Inland Pastoral

Camel: Same (Below Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)

Galgaduud & south Mudug

None for All species

Camel: NoneCattle: NoneSheep/goats: None to low

Very poor for all species

Camel: None Cattle: NoneSheep/goats: None

Addun Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline)Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)

Hawd Pastoral Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline)Goats: Increased (Below Baseline)

Northeast Camel: None to LowSh/Goats: Medium to Low

Camel: none to LowSheep/Goats: Medium to Low

Camel: Poor (Bari), Very poor in Mudug & Nugal regionsSh/Goats: Avearge (Bari), Poor (Mudg & Nugal)

Camel: Medium(Bari), None ( Mudug & Nugal)Sh/Goats: Medium to Low

Hawd Pastoral Camel: decrease ( Below Baseline) Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)

Nugal Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Same as Baseline) Sh/goats: Increased (Above Baseline)

Sool Pastoral Camel: increase (below baseline) Sh/goats: Increase (Above Baseline)

Addun Pastoral Camel: Decrease ( Below Baseline)Sh/goats: Slight increase ( below Baseline)

Northwest Camel: NoneSh/Goats: Nugal Valley/Sool Plateau: LowHawd/Golis Guban: Medium

Camel: NoneSh/goats: High to Medium

Extremely Below Average for all species

Camel: High to Medium except Nugal and Sool Plateau: LowSh/Goats: Medium (Hawd, Golis/Guban) Low (Sool Plateau/Nugal valley

Hawd Pastoral Camel: Increase (Above Baseline)Sh/goats: Decreased (Near Baseline)

Guban/Golis Pastoral

Camel: Increase(Above Baseline) Sh/goats: Slight Increase (Below Baseline)

Sool Pastoral Camel: same (below baseline)Sh/goats: Decrease (Near baseline)

LivestockWater Availability

Water trucked in Hawd Hargeisa Early depletion of water–SIP AfmadowEmpty Communal Dam in Hawd AbudwaK

Dasa empty water catchment – Elwaq - Gedo

Empty Berkads– Sool Plateau - Qardho

Empty Teed communal water catchment- North Huddur

LivestockPastoral Migration Using Different Means of Transport

Motorized out migration from Nugal ValleyIn migration from Gedo Using Pack camels

Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Gedo

Middle Shebelle migrating from to L/Shebelle

Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Ox

LivestockLivestock Body Conditions & Pasture: Camel & Cattle

Emaciated camel body condition in Dh/mareeb

Poor pasture & camel body condition in Nugal Valley

Average cattle body condition in Juba

Dead sheep Agropastoral W/Galbeed Good camel calving at Qorioley/L. Shebelle Poor camel body condition–B/Jajdid/Tayeglow

Livestock

Livestock

Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (SoSh/SLSh)

Trends in Local Cattle Prices

Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of Trade

Livestock

LivestockTrends in Livestock Exports – Berbera & Bossaso

Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 year Average

Berbera & Bossaso: Trend in Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

LivestockCarcass Meat Exported: Jan – Jul. 2009

Month Burao Beletweyne Mogadishu Galkayo

January 7030 Data not available Data not available 5,086

February 7100 Data not available Data not available 4,143

March 7000 Data not available Data not available 5,511

April 5700 Data not available Data not available 4,200

May 6,300 Data not available Data not available 4,387

June 6,410 Data not available Data not available 5,060

July 6.700 Data not available Data not available 3,110

Total 46.240 Data not available Data not available 31,497

AgricultureGu ‘09 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia

Regions

Gu 2009 Production in MTGu 2009 as

% of Gu 2008

Gu 2009 as % of Gu PWA(1995-2008)

Gu 2009 as % of 5 year average

(2004-2008)Maize Sorghum Total Cereal

Bakol 100 400 500 484% 23% 76%Bay 3,800 34,500 38,300 113% 106% 167%Gedo 1,300 100 1,400 148% 26% 67%Hiran 300 500 800 38% 20% 38%

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

10,300 10,100 20,400 817% 242% 727%

Juba Hoose (Lower)

600 0 600 12% 10% 29%

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)

5,200 1,800 7,000 129% 44% 50%

Shabelle Hoose (Lower)

64,100 8,300 72,400 218% 118% 170%

Gu 2009 Total 85,700 55,700 141,400 170% 102% 158%

Gu’07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern Somalia

AgricultureRice and Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Southern Somalia

Regions

Off Season : Sept – Oct. 2009

Maize (MT) Total Cereal

Juba Dhexe (Middle) 1,625 1,625

Juba Hoose (Lower) 12,509 12,509

Total 14,134 14,134

Region Gu ‘09 Rice

Production Estimates (MT)

Gu ‘09 Rice production as % of Gu

‘08 Rice Production

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) – Jawhar Only

2,400 120%

Total 2,400 120%

AgricultureCereal Production Plus Off-Season in Southern Somalia

Regions

Gu 2009 Production in MT Gu 2009 as % of Gu

2008

Gu 2009 as % of Gu

PWA(1995-2008)

Gu 2009 as % of 5 year

average(2004-2008)Maize Sorghum Total Cereal

Bakol 100 400 500 484% 23% 76%

Bay 3,800 34,500 38,300 113% 106% 167%

Gedo 1,300 100 1,400 148% 26% 67%

Hiran 300 500 800 38% 20% 38%

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

11,900 10,100 22,000 882% 256% 665%

Juba Hoose (Lower)

13,100 0 13,100 261% 227% 554%

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)

5,200 1,800 7,000 129% 44% 50%

Shabelle Hoose (Lower)

64,100 8,300 72,400 140% 115% 156%

Gu 2009 Total 99,800 55,700 155,500 153% 111% 166%

AgricultureTrends in Cereal Production (no off season) , Southern Somalia

Gu Cereal Production Trends

(1995 – 2009)

Annual Cereal Production

Trends (1995 – 2009)

Regional Contribution Gu ’09 Cereal Production

Maize Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution

AgricultureRegional Cereal Contributions

Sorghum Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution

AgricultureGu Karan Crop Establishment Estimates

Regions

Gu 2009 Production in MTGu-Karan

2009 as % of Gu-Karan

2008

Gu-Karan 2009 as % of

Gu-Karan PWA

(1998-2008)

Gu-Karan 2009 as % of 5 year average(2004-2008)Maize Sorghum Total Cereal

Awdal 15 720 735 47% 23% 19%

Togdheer 3 202 205 23% 36% 21%

Woqooyi Galbeed 25 5,640 5,665 38% 38% 33%

Gu-Karan 2009 Total

43 6,562 6,605 38% 36% 30%

AgricultureTrends in Gu-Karan Cereal Production, Somaliland

AgricultureGu ‘09 Poor Crops

1. Poor Sorghum Establishment. Garabis, Hargeysa, W. Galbeed, July ’09

2. Sorghum Crop Failure with limited fodder harvested by the Owner. Bulo Burte, Hiran, July ‘09.

3. Poor Riverine Maize Crop due to water stress. Moyka village, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July ‘09

1

2

3

AgricultureGu ‘09 Off-Season Good Crops

1. Good Sorghum Crop. Finka Weer, Sakow,M. Juba, July,’09

2. Good Rainfed Maize Crop. K50, Marka, L. Shabelle, July 2009

3. Good Sorghum Crop. Boodaale, Burhakaba, Bay, July ‘09.

1

2

3

AgricultureCash Crop Production Estimates in Southern Somalia

Regions Gu 2009 Production in MT

  Cowpea SesameGround

NutOff-Season

CowpeaOff-Season

SesameTotal

Bakol - - - - - -

Bay 2,060 1,073 1,725 - - 4,858

Gedo 25 - - - - 25

Hiran - - - - - -

Juba Dhexe (Middle)

312 3,012 - 140 660 4,124

Juba Hoose (Lower)

32 29 - 662 1,240 1,964

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)

380 300 - - - 680

Shabelle Hoose (Lower)

3,200 890 - - - 4,090

Gu 2009 Total 6,009 5,304 1,725 802 1,900 15,740

AgricultureGu ‘09 Cash Crops and Other income Activities

Good Rain-fed Sesame Crop. Sakow, Middle Juba, July ‘09

Vegetable production_Middle shabelle

Fodder Collection, Jowhar,

M. Shabelle, July ’09.

Fodder Market. Jowhar. Miiddle Shabelle, July ‘09

Good Lettuce and Rice Crop behind. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, July ‘09.

Good Banana and Cucumber Crops. Jilib, Middle Juba, July ‘09.

Agriculture

Cereal Flow Map

AgricultureCommercial Cereal Import Trends (2005-2008)

MT 2009 (Jan. –July)

• 417,534 MT

• 118% of year 2008 (352,385MT)

• 99% of 3-year average (423,085MT)

Local Cereal Production and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions

AgricultureAnnual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2009 to May 2010

Annual Cereal Balance Sheet for Somalia

(June 2009 to May 2010)

CEREAL BALANCE SHEET AT JULY ‘09

100% Net Commercial Imports(‘000MT)

75% Net Commercial Imports(‘000MT)

DOMESTIC AVAILABILITY 276Opening Stocks 16Domestic Cereal Supply ’09/10 260Gu 2009 144Gu Karan 2009 Northwest 7Off-season Gu 2009 14Estimated Deyr 09/10 95DOMESTIC UTILISATION

Cereal Utilization Requirements 636IMPORT REQUIREMENTS

Anticipated Commercial Imports 423 317ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL 63 -43Stocks, Transit and Pipeline

WFPICRC

119 119

1163

1163

ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL

182 76

AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade

Regional Trend in

Cereal Prices

(SoSh/SLSH)

Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor

(kg of cereal/daily wage)

Trends in Exchange Rates

Factors Affecting:

Depreciation – Since Jan. ’07 to Sept ‘08

• Excessive printing of SoSh

•High demand of USD

• Low remittance

• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling

• Speculation and expectations

Appreciation – Since Oct. ‘08

•Significant increase in USD

o Piracy

o Proceeds from livestock sales

• Cessation SOSH printing

• Slowdown of business activities and exports

Markets

Monthly Exchange Rates - SoSh and SlSh to USD

Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates

Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices

• Devaluation of SoSh (Imports expensive)

• Increased Global Prices

• High Importation Costs (Piracy/Fuel/Taxes)

• High Transportation Costs

• Low Supply

• Disrupted Market Activities

• Reduced Trade Flows

• Low Substitute Commodity

• Trade Collusion

• Tariffs and Taxations

Markets

Shabelle Region: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate

Central: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate

MarketsConsumer Price Index (Min. Expenditure

Basket)

MarketsTrends in Cereal Prices, Wage Rates and TOT (SoSh)

Northeast

South

Comparison of Rice Price in Mogadishu and International Asia Markets; January 2007 – July 2009

Markets

Impact of Gu ’09 Performance on Gender

• During normal seasons most pastoral activities (e.g. looking after animals, fetching water and firewood, sale of livestock products and food purchase) are done by women, while these are managed by men during dry seasons

• Huge livestock migration (including lactating animals) in search of pasture and water resulted in family splitting with women and children remaining behind

Abandoned women and children in the drought affected settlements, Hawd of Sool, July ‘09

Jidbaale, July‘09Qandhicilay, July‘09Jidbaale, July‘09

Main effects on women:

• Lack of milk production/consumption, affecting the nutritional status of women and children as evidenced by nutritional surveys (‘ critical to very critical’ situation in Gedo, Central/Hiran, northern Bakool)

• Loss of control on the income from productive activities, such as livestock product & crop sales

• Lack of access to the social support for women left behind

• Increased burden due to fetching water, fuel and wood from long distances

Continued…

%

Nutrition Overview Gu ’09

NutritionNutrition Information Sources Gu ’09 (April – July)

Nutrition Surveys• 33 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (All FSNAU includes, 23 SMART, 4 LQAS, 5 exhaustive)• 17 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central • 3 focused on concerning areas in northwest / northeast from Deyr analysis • 4 focused on district / regional (Belet Weyne, Adale, Galgadud & Mudug)• 8 focused on IDP populations (Hargeisa, Berbera, Burao, Garowe, Gardo, Galkahyo, Bossasso, Afgooye & Merka) • 1 focused on vulnerable urban populations (Bossasso)

Rapid Assessments using MUAC: (137 sites & 11,904 children 6-59months) Predominantly, NW. NE, Mogadishu & Belet Weyne Conducted in 46 urban centres (n=4740) Conducted in 91 rural settlements (n=7164)

Health Centre Monitoring• Collected from 100 health centres from all regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool)

Related Selective Feeding Centre Data• Information from partners: Central, Hiran, Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu –patchy and limited due to interrupted

programming e.g. IMC, ACF

Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioration)• Disease outbreaks e.g. malaria, AWD outbreaks, Hiran, Central, NE, NW• Programme access disruption: Bakool, Bay, Central, Gedo• Displacement; in and out of Mogadishu

Summary of Key FindingsNorthwest :

Confirmation of improvement in West

Golis from Very Critical to Serious. Critical in East

Golis and Guban & Karkar. Serious with risk to deterioration in other

areas, still concerns IDP. Hot spot in south

Toghdeer

Northeast: Deterioration to Critical in

Guban & Karkar and Serious in Nugal. IDP

populations remain Very Critical.

Bay/ Bakool: Bay agropastoral deterioration to

Very Critical, Bakool agropastoral improvement to Serious and Bakool Pastoral

sustained Very Critical.

Shabelles:Sustained Serious in IDPs and riverine slight deterioration (not sig) to Critical in Agropastoral.

Rapid MUAC assessment shows Very Critical in

Mogadishu.

Central & Hiran:Sustained Critical in

Addun, and Hawd (slight improvement in Hawd but not sig.) Cow pea belt and

Coastal Deeh stable at Serious.

Hiran sustained Critical in riverine and Very Critical

(deterioration) in agro pastoral.

Gedo: Sustained Very Critical in pastoral &

riverine. Slight improvement to Critical

in agropastoral

Juba – Deterioration to Very Critical in agropastoral and

pastoral – likely linked to disease outbreak – stable in riverine at

Serious

Gu 2009 Nutrition Survey Results Overview

Crude and Under 5 yrs mortality rates generally stable with exception of Shabelle AP, Juba AP & Riverine and Gedo AP

which were at alert levels

NutritionTrends in levels of Global Acute Malnutrition

(WHO GS) – Gu 2009

The national median rate is 19% GAM and

4.6% SAM , which means almost 1 in 5

children acutely malnourished and 1 in

20 severely malnourished.

NutritionTrends in levels of Stunting and Wasting (WHO GS) – Gu 2009

Consider the difference in NW

(11%) and Sth Central (32%) !!!

Nutrition Situation Estimates - MapsNutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009

SummarySouth / Central:

•Overall mixed picture, still high levels of nutritional vulnerability,

• Particular concern over areas with Very Critical, Gedo, Juba, Bay, Bakool, parts of Hiran and Mogadishu – in many areas more likely linked to disease rather than food access

•Lack of further deterioration in Central likely linked to humanitarian interventions – however populations still vulnerable

• However significant decreasing humanitarian space for agencies to meet to provide programmes, fewer partners – risk factor for further deterioration – e.g. Central & Bakool

Northwest/ Northeast populations:

•Overall mixed picture

•West Golis recovery likely linked to returning livestock, increased access to milk and humanitarian interventions

• East Golis & Guban/ Karkar now of concern due to Critical rates

•Deterioration in Sool, Nugal and Hawd likely as a result of decreasing food security

•All IDP populations continue to be very nutritionally vulnerable

•More opportunities for response – improvement in vaccination coverage due to CHD

Major contributing cases continue to be disease

(esp AWD) –due to WASH deficiencies, poor IYCF, and limited health services –exacerbated by poor dietary quality

Major contributing cases for IDPs continue to be disease,

poor IYCF, and limited health services –

exacerbated by poor dietary quality - for rural areas

more linked to food insecurity

B. Current Food &Livelihood Security

Phase Classifications

Summary Results

Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Rural IPC PopulationsJuly – December 2009

Rural IPC PopulationsJanuary – June 2009

Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Urban and IDP IPC PopulationsJanuary – June 2009

Urban and IDP IPC PopulationsJuly – December 2009

Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC PopulationsJanuary – June 2009

Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC PopulationsJuly – December 2009

Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis, July - December 2009

RegionUNDP 2005

Total Population

UNDP 2005 Urban

Population

UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Urban in Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Rural in Acute Food and

Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)

Urban in Humanitarian

Emergency (HE)

Rural Humanitarian

Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC and HE as % of Total

population

North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 5,000 25,000 0 0 10Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 55,000 30,000 0 0 12

Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 55,000 75,000 20,000 5,000 39Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 20,000 75,000 5,000 15,000 43Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 15,000 35,000 5,000 0 37Bari 367,638 179,633 202,737 80,000 0 25,000 0 29Nugaal 145,341 54,749 75,860 25,000 15,000 0 5,000 31

Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 255,000 255,000 55,000 25,000 25

Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 30,000 40,000 0 110,000 51Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 15,000 35,000 10,000 200,000 79

Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 45,000 75,000 10,000 310,000 65South Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 25,000 35,000 5,000 160,000 68

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 95,831 419,070 25,000 60,000 0 160,000 48

Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 50,000 10,000 5,000 12

Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 25,000 65,000 0 70,000 52Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 20,000 5,000 0 5,000 5Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 30,000 80,000 0 40,000 46

Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 54,739 184,138 10,000 5,000 0 0 6

Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 124,682 261,108 20,000 10,000 0 0 8

Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 190,000 310,000 15,000 440,000 27

Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 30,000 - 55,000 - 9Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 520,000 640,000 135,000 775,000 28

Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE Number affected% of Total population

Distribution of populations in crisis

Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE 655,000 9 17%

Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE 1,415,000 19 38%

Estimated number of new IDPs-updated 2nd Aug 2009 (UNHCR) 1,420,000 19 38%

Estimated number of protracted IDPs 275,000 4 7%

Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis 3,765,000 50 100.0%

Jan-Jun '08

(A)

RevisedApr-Jun '08

(B)

Jul-Dec '08

(C)

Jan-Jun '09

(D)

Jun –Dec ’09

(E)

% Increase or decrease

(D to E)

Urban - 576,000 705,000 705,000 655,000 -7%

Rural 850,000 921,000 1,395,000 1,170,000 1,415,000 16%

New IDPs 705,000 855,000 870,000 1,020,000 1,419,000 39%

Protracted IDPS 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 0

Total 1,830,000 2,627,000 3,245,000 3,170,000 3,764,000 17%

Somalia IPC TableTrends in Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis

Somalia IPC TableDistribution of Rural Populations in Crisis

Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09•HE increased – from 680,000 to 775,000 (13% increase)

Primarily due to increase in HE in Central, Hiran and Bakool Off-set by reduction of HE in L. Shabelle

•AFLC increased – from 535,000 to 640,000 (19% increase)

Primarily due to increase in AFLC in north

Zone UNDP 2005 Total Population

UNDP 2005 Rural Population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC & HE

% of Total in AFLC & HE

Central 680,156 526,774 75,000 310,000 385,000 27

North East 1,213,324 488,510 15,000 5,000 20,000 1

South 4,480,780 2,792,965 310,000 440,000 750,000 53

North West 1,128,394 798,837 240,000 20,000 260,000 18

Grand Total 7,502,654 4,607,086 640,000 775,000 1,415,000 100

Somalia IPC TableDistribution of Urban Populations in Crisis

Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09

•HE slight decreased – from 140,000 to 135,000

Due to slight decrease in HE L. Shabelle

•AFLC decreased – from 565,000 to 520,000

Due to decrease in AFLC South (L. Shabelle, Bay, & M Juba) Off-set by increase in AFLC in north

Zone UNDP 2005 Total Population

UNDP 2005 Urban Population

Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis

(AFLC)

Humanitarian Emergency (HE)

Total in AFLC & HE

% of Total in AFLC & HE

Central 680,156 153,382 45,000 10,000 55,000 8

North East 512,979 234,382 105,000 25,000 130,000 20

South 4,480,780 1,687,815 220,000 70,000 290,000 44

North West 1,828,739 819,989 150,000 30,000 180,000 27

Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 520,000 135,000 655,000 100

Implications for Actions

Humanitarian Access

• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that growing number of populations in need, receive assistance

Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition

• Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response

• Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool)

• IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition

• Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer Agro-pastoral & Sool Plateau Pastoral)

Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE

• Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE

• Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (L & M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool)

• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas

• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged high food and nonfood prices

Humanitarian Access

• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that growing number of populations in need, receive assistance

Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE

• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition

• Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response

• Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool)

• IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition

• Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer Agro-pastoral & Sool Plateau Pastoral)

Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE

• Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE

• Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (L & M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool)

• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas

• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged high food and nonfood prices