Food insecurity in Africa

State, Challenges and opportunities, policy options

Adama Ekberg

Chief, FSSDD/APSS

Seventh Session of the Committee on Food Security and Sustainable Development (CFSSD-7)

Expert Segment of the Africa Regional Preparatory Conference for the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20)

20-22 October 2011Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

State of food security in 2010• 2007-2008 food crisis added 148 million undernourished

people o/which 52.7 million from Africa (28 % of global stock), FAO.

• The number of food insecure people (2010, USDA) at 390 mil., despite a slight improvement (11 % decline from 2009) in the response to the massive registered food security policy responses.

• Change in prevalence of undernourishment (% of undernourished people ~total) in Africa more than double from 14.9 % (1990-1992)-1995-1997 to 24.8% for (2004-2006)- 2009 period. i.e the highest registered proportionate change ~ to other regions (prevalence of undernourishment terms)

• Almost 1/3 to ½ depending, of total population still suffering from hunger, food insecurity not a marginal issue on the ground.

High and varying degree of fuel to food prices transmission

globally, regionally and locally…

Deflated Food and Petroleum Price indices, 1980-2010

3

Source: IMF (www.imfstatistics.org)

Why high and volatile fuel, feed, food prices a

real concern ?

Region Hunger, Proportion of population (%)

1990-1999 2000-2005 Change (%)

Northern Africa 5.0 3.0 -40%Sub-Saharan Africa 57.0 51.0 -10%Source: MDG Report 2009

SSA exception: Progress toward meeting hunger-reduction MDG 1 target goals by 2015 is becoming a great challenge with persistent rise and volatility in food prices, if nothing is done now…

Challenges & opportunities (1)

• Fast changing Global market environment and dynamics “Complexities req. rethinking strategically, build analytical

tools and databases, analyze current and anticipate future situations, to generate knowledge for timely decisions and informed FS debate. agriculture no more ‘a brute force economy’ ”

● Climate Change to pose a threat to emerging production systems, especially smallholders

Need to adapt African producers to the detrimental effects of climate change

Early warning and market surveillance systems ● High and volatile food prices to stay as well

Food security related responses for Africa need to take into account specific local conditions.

Challenges & opportunities (2)• Biotechnology, Green economy, to open up new

frontiers opportunities if…. Need for a new paradigm shift, to produce, add value and

grow in a more robust, efficient, equitable, sustainable manner.

• Increasing trends of FDI in land and water resources for food, water, energy security to pose increasingly new threats to Africa agriculture

Need to implement Land policy framework and guidelines to maximize the benefits of FDI while minimizing the risks of increased large scale land based investments in Africa

Shift from a period of global, cheaper food prices to

much higher and volatile ones…

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1980

-198

9

1990

-199

9

2000

-200

9

Source:UNCTAD

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Soybeam oil

Palm oil

Crudepetroleum

Domestic food price volatility significant

Ric

e Wh

eat

Ric

e

Mai

ze

Mai

ze

Wh

eat

Cas

sava

Sorg

hu

m

Mil

let

Cas

sava

Sorg

hu

m

Sorg

hu

m

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Benin Ethiopia Mali Mozambique Nigeria Sudan

Domestic Prices

volatility (%)

High and volatile prices unsustainable for the poor Uncertainty in prices and high volatility hinder growth and investment into agriculture Need for regionally based Early warning systems and markets surveillance and price and income stabilization instruments for robust, stable, sustainable food security system

Relying on imports in tight and thin global grain markets, a risky proposition into the future

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20

01

/02

20

02

/03

20

03

/04

20

04

/05

20

05

/06

20

06

/07

20

07

/08

20

08

/09

20

09

/10

20

10

/11

Source: USDA, 2010. Note: Right axis (production), left axis (consumption, ending stocks), in million Tons

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

Consumption Ending stocks Production

Need for regionally and nationally based solidarity grain reserve systems + fundRelying more on the regional common market for strategic food products

Continued, high dependence on food aid receipts another risky, costly

proposition to address

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(e)

Central Africa

East Africa

Southern Africa

North Africa

West Africa

Need for structural food aid reform

Food and nutrition security policy options, …Priority actions going forward ? (1)• Strengthen at all levels African governance and

coordination structures and mechanisms, as well as monitoring and evaluation structures and systems in food and nutrition security matters.

“Need to redouble efforts to implement 2006 Abuja food security

summit resolution: harmonize food security and cross border investment policies to reduce barriers to intra food trade expansion, stabilize food prices through establishing of regional solidarity instruments, community markets to create a larger Africa-wide marketplace”

Policy options,… Priority actions going forward ? (2)

• Strengthen at all levels African emergency and humanitarian intervention, but reform food aid.

• “priority to targeted food safety nets and social protection tailored to needs of the poor

Policy options,… Priority actions going forward ? (3)

● To feed about 1 billion people and more in the future, need to act efficiently at all levels and on all scales to reduce food waste[1].

1] ►Post harvest and post production losses due to inadequate infrastructure, poor storage facilities, inadequate technical capacity and under-developed markets are the main causes of waste.

► Food losses in the field (between planting and harvesting) may be as high as 20 to 40 per cent of the potential harvest in developing countries (UN, 2010).

Post- consumption food waste should no longer be overlooked as well.

“Invest to reduce post harvest + post consumption waste and losses

Policy options, …Priority actions going forward ? (4)

• Invest massively to increase agricultural output thru productivity growth, also into supply and value chains to scale up food security related best registered pilot schemes and practices through active information sharing and exchanges of experiences among RECs and countries and all others concerned.

“Need to draw lessons from China, North Africa (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) , Malawi, Mauritius, Ethiopia, Ghana, in the areas of price stabilization, water management, input subsidization, Structural transformation, …

It is doable: increase in crop production from 2007/2008 to 2009/2010: (+500 %, rice; more than 2000%, maize; 400%+, sorghum; 250%+, millet)

Policy options,… priority actions going forward ? (5)

• Invest more responsibly at all levels into African agriculture to strengthen quality data collection, fast-track regional integration efforts: scale up regionally based joint cross border agricultural investments in support of agricultural and rural transformation, and well integrated, well-functioning, competitive strategic regional commodity and food supply and value chains.

“Need to reduce barriers to intra trading in more value added manufactured products to fast track the establishing of the African common market for agriculture products (2006 Abuja food security summit resolution), to achieve more domestically driven robust and stable growth

Policy options, Priority actions going forward ? (6)

• ‘Where there is a strong political commitment and will to the right policy as in China, there is a way’.

• It is not too late to act.

• Doing all of the above alone is perhaps smarter, so as to go much faster, but doing all of the above together is to think big, and go much farther’.

Where to stay collectively focused into the future ?

1. Agricultural and rural transformation 2. Structural transformation

Composition of exports in (monetary units) by world regions, 2006

• ‘‘Stop exporting low value, raw produce individually, jointly add more local value with increasingly more local content’’.

Share of Natural resources in total value of Africa’s

exports

Source: Aryeetey

1995 2000 2006

Manufactured goods 24.3 21.5 18.0

Natural resources 60.7 68.9 74.9

Food items 15.0 9.6 7.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Natural resources

Manufactured goods

Food products

• ‘‘Stop exporting low value, raw produce alone, jointly add more local value with increasingly more local content’’.