five timeless insights for investing through challenging markets · 2020. 11. 3. · forecasting is...
TRANSCRIPT
During this presentation and subsequent questions and answers, Davis Advisors’investment professionals may make candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, individual securities and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct. These comments may also include the expression of opinions that are speculative in nature and should not be relied on as statements of fact.For Broker/Dealer use only. Not for use with the public.
Five Timeless Insights for Investing through Challenging Markets
Chris Davis Chairman & Portfolio Manager, Davis Advisors
Price is What You Pay, Value is What You Get
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Source: Davis Advisors as of 10/29/20
Tale of Two MarketsReturn for the S&P 500 vs. Return for S&P 500 Minus Top 5 Contributors
4.0%
-3.5%S&P 500 S&P 500 minus Top 5
Contributors
AppleAmazonMicrosoft FacebookNvidia
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Source: Davis Advisors as of 10/29/20
Tale of Two MarketsYTD Total Return
23.1%
4.0%-12.6%
Russell 1000 Growth S&P500 Russell 1000 Value
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Source: Davis Advisors. Bloomberg and Company Filings. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. The companies in Group 2 represent the five growth securities discussed in an independent, third-party article (https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/06/18/market-cap-madness/) that was focused on the significant increase in market capitalization of these growth stocks. Group 1 represents current Davis New York Venture Fund holdings with a market value that was approximately equal to that of Group 2 as of June 30, 2020.
Price is What You Pay, Value is What You Get
Group 1 Group 2
ShopifySpotifyTeslaSquareZoom
Raytheon Wells FargoApplied Materials ChubbAmerican Express Carrier Corp Intel Capital OneBank of New York
Market Cap $676.5 billion $673.2 billion
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Source: Davis Advisors. Bloomberg and Company Filings. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. The companies in Group 2 represent the five growth securities discussed in an independent, third-party article (https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/06/18/market-cap-madness/) that was focused on the significant increase in market capitalization of these growth stocks. Group 1 represents current Davis New York Venture Fund holdings with a market value that was approximately equal to that of Group 2 as of June 30, 2020.
Price is What You Pay, Value is What You Get
Group 1 Group 2
ShopifySpotifyTeslaSquareZoom
Raytheon Wells FargoApplied Materials ChubbAmerican Express Carrier Corp Intel Capital OneBank of New York
Market Cap $676.5 billion $673.2 billion
Revenue $38.3 billion $389.1 billion (10x greater)
Earnings -$1.2 billion $70 billionP/E 9.6x
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Avoid Growth Pretenders, Buy Growth Stalwarts
Avoid Value Traps, Buy Resilient Value
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Cloud Computing, Software, On-Line Search
Semiconductor Related
E-Commerce, Social Media, On-Line Education
Opportunities in Today’s Market
Lab Diagnostics
Leading Industrials
Select Financials
The securities listed above represent holdings from the Funds discussed in this presentation as of Sept. 30, 2020. The holdings are not in every Fund and are subject to change. You should review the most recent shareholder report for a full schedule of investments for each Fund.
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Source: Credit Suisse. As of 8/31/20
Financials are the Most Attractively Priced Sector Today
14.316.5 18.1
20.4 21.3 21.6 22.6 23.9 24.427.9
31.4
37.7
44.3
Fin H.C. Utilities REITs Cons.Stap.
Materials S&P500 CommSvcs
Ind. Tech TECH+ Dis. Energy
S&P 500 Forward P/Es by Sector
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12%
18%
24%
2010 2015 2020
Financials Today: A Huge Gap Between Price & Value
Source: Bloomberg and Davis Advisors
Financials Share of S&P 500 Earnings (%) Financials Share of S&P 500 Market Cap (%)
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Emotions Destroy Long-Term Returns
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Advisors Add Enormous Value
6.1%
4.3%
Return Lost Due to Emotional Investing
Emotions Held in Check Driven By EmotionsSource: Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior by Dalbar, Inc. (March 2020) Lipper and Davis Advisors. Dalbar computed the “Return of the Average Stock Fund Investor” by using industry cash flow reports from the Investment Company Institute. The “Average Stock Fund Return” figures represent the average return for all funds listed in Lipper’s U.S. Diversified Equity fund classification model. Dalbar also measured the behavior of an “asset allocation” investor that uses a mix of equity and fixed income investments. The annualized return for this investor type was 1.9% over the time frame measured. All Dalbar returns were computed using the S&P 500 Index. Returns assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. The fact that buy and hold has been a successful strategy in the past does not guarantee that it will continue to be successful in the future. The performance shown is not indicative of any particular Davis investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Average Stock Fund Investor Return vs. Average Stock Fund Return 1999–2019
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Advisors Add Enormous Value
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The Only Function of Economic Forecasting is to Make Astrology
Look Respectable
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Disregard Short-Term Forecasts
-40%
0%
40%
1999
Actual Market ReturnsWall Street Strategists’ Average Predictions
2019
Source: Wall Street Journal Publications. From 1999 through 2005, numbers reflect Dow Jones Industrial Average forecasts. In 2006, the S&P 500 Index was used exclusively. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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Volatility – Emotion = Opportunity
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2,000
3,800
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20
Systematic Investing Can Capitalize on Price Volatility
Source: Davis Advisors and Bloomberg.“Lump Sum” is represented by a one time$35,000 investment in Vanguard 500 Fundon 2/19/20. “Sold at March Low” isrepresented by a one time $35,000investment in the Vanguard 500 Fund on2/19/20, which is then sold to cash on3/23/20. “Weekly Systematic Investment”is represented by a $1000 investment inthe Vanguard 500 Fund at the market peakon February 19 and then again at thebeginning of each week ending on October15, for a total investment of $35,000.Systematic investing does not assure aprofit and does not protect against loss indeclining markets. Systematic investinginvolves continuous investment regardlessof fluctuating prices. You should consideryour financial ability to continue purchasesthrough periods of high or low price levels.Past performance is not a guarantee offuture results.
- Lump Sum Total Return $36,440- Sold at March Low $23,168- Weekly Systematic $40,149
$1,000 Weekly Investments in the Market from Feb 2020 – Oct 2020 (total investment = $35,000)
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EndnotesFor Broker-Dealer use only.
This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, individual securities, and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee thatthese statements, opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct. These comments may also include the expression of opinions that are speculative in nature and should not be relied on asstatements of fact.
Davis Advisors is committed to communicating with our investment partners as candidly as possible because we believe our investors benefit from understanding our investmentphilosophy and approach. Our views and opinions include “forward-looking statements” which may or may not be accurate over the long term. Forward-looking statements can beidentified by words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” or similar expressions. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which are current as of the date of thisreport. We disclaim any obligation to update or alter any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. While we believe we have areasonable basis for our appraisals and we have confidence in our opinions, actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate.
Objective and Risks. The investment objective of Davis New York Venture Fund, Davis Global Fund, and Davis International Fund is long-term growth of capital. There can be noassurance that a Fund will achieve its objective. Some important risks of an investment in the Funds are: stock market risk, common stock risk, financial services risk, foreign country risk,headline risk, large-capitalization companies risk, manager risk, depositary receipts risk, emerging market risk, fees and expenses risk, foreign currency risk, and mid- and small-capitalization companies risk. See the prospectus for a complete description of the principal risks.
The information provided in this material should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security.
Davis Funds has adopted a Portfolio Holdings Disclosure policy that governs the release of non-public portfolio holding information. This policy is described in the prospectus. Holdingpercentages are subject to change. Visit davisfunds.com or call 800-279-0279 for the most current public portfolio holdings information.
Shares of the Davis Funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involveinvestment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Davis Distributors, LLC2949 East Elvira Road, Suite 101, Tucson, AZ 85756800-279-0279, davisfunds.com
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