Five Things Everyone Should Know About Climate Change

David KaroweDepartment of Biological Sciences

Western Michigan University

The source of information on a slide is indicated by a superscripted number, which refers to a specific citation

in the three slides at the end of the presentation

Tem

per

atu

re A

nom

aly

(o C)

13 warmest years in history: 2002-2013, 1998*

Warming is 10-20 times faster than in at least the last 800,000 years

Since 1900, Earth has warmed ~ 0.8o C

1. Climate change is real, and humans are causing it.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/

- severe rainstorms have become more common

43% increase in Ohio since 19481

Precipitation is a very important component of climate

1950-1959

At the same time, much of the world has been experiencing more frequent and stronger droughts2

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

mild

dro

ught

extr

eme

seve

re

mod

erat

e

exce

ptio

nal

2000-2009

At the same time, much of the world has been experiencing more frequent and stronger droughts2

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

mild

dro

ught

extr

eme

seve

re

mod

erat

e

exce

ptio

nal

Climate predictions are coming true in the U.S.

In 2011, Ohio had its wettest spring on record

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/maps

As a result, much of Ohio experienced extensive flooding

2012 was the warmest year on record for the U.S.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

September 2, 201447% Drought (4% Exceptional)

Since 2011, much of the U.S. has been in severe drought

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/MapArchive.aspx

January 2014 Temperatures

This winter, most of the world was not like the Midwest

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

Three lines of evidence against a meaningful contribution of “natural variation” to current warming

Since 1900, most of the heat added to Earth’s climate is from greenhouse gasses (GHG)3

GHG added ~ 2.98 W/m2

the sun added ~ 0.12 W/m2

Temperature

Solar Irradiance

Temperature data:  http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtSolar irradiance data:  http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun‐climate/data/tsi_1611.txt, 

http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstantGraph:  http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar‐activity‐sunspots‐global‐warming.htm

Recently, while Earth has been warming fastest, solar irradiance has been decreasing4

natural factors only

Models do a good job of replicating past climate change only if they include anthropogenic factors5

- natural factors (the sun and volcanoes) would have caused a slight cooling since 1900

anthropogenic and natural factors

observedmodeledobserved

modeled

Best estimate: ≥ 95% of current warming is due to human activities

In two major ways, current warming is very different than any warming period

in at least the last 800,000 years

1. It’s at least 10 times faster

2. It’s happening while solar input is decreasing

Are Americans aware of the cause?6

“We’re causing it”

“It’s natural”

Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming?

“Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities."

Scientific organizations endorsing this statement7: United States:National Academy of SciencesAmerican Medical AssociationAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceAmerican Meteorological SocietyAmerican Institute of Biological SciencesAmerican Chemical SocietyAmerican Geophysical UnionAmerican Institute of Physics

Geological Society of AmericaAmerican Academy of PaediatricsAmerican College of Preventive MedicineAmerican Public Health AssociationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric ResearchUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchEcological Society of AmericaAmerican Society of AgronomyAmerican Society of Plant BiologistsAssociation of Ecosystem Research CentersBotanical Society of AmericaCrop Science Society of AmericaNatural Science Collections Alliance

American Statistical AssociationOrganization of Biological Field StationsAmerican Physical SocietySociety for Industrial and Applied MathematicsSociety of Systematic BiologistsSoil Science Society of AmericaFederation of American ScientistsNational Research CouncilNational Association of Geoscience TeachersAmerican Quaternary AssociationAmerican Association of Wildlife VeterinariansAmerican Society for MicrobiologySociety of American ForestersAmerican Astronomical Society

Europe:European Academy of Sciences and ArtsEuropean Science FoundationEuropean Geosciences UnionEuropean Physical SocietyEuropean Federation of GeologistsRoyal Society of the United KingdomAcademie des Sciences (France)Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany)Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)Royal Irish AcademyRoyal Swedish Academy of SciencesRoyal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the ArtsRoyal Meteorological SocietyBritish Antarctic SurveyUnited Kingdom Institute of Biology

Other countries (≥ 35):Chinese Academy of SciencesScience Council of JapanRussian Academy of SciencesIndian National Science AcademyRoyal Society of New ZealandAustralian Academy of SciencesAustralian Medical AssociationPolish Academy of SciencesAcademia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)Royal Society of CanadaAfrican Academy of SciencesCaribbean Academy of SciencesAcademy of Sciences of MalaysiaIndonesian Academy of SciencesAcademy of Science of South Africa

Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion:

American Institute of Petroleum Geologists

Until 2007:

Since 2008:none

Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific consensus6?

“Scientists agree”

“Scientists don’t agree”

In fact, 97.5% of climate scientists agree

What does the future hold?

It depends on our choices

“No fate but what we make”

2o

4o

Depending on choices we make, Earth is likely to warm by

2-5o Cby 21008

“Business as usual”

Alternate energy sources

Actual

2. If we remain on our current course, future climate change will be severe.

5o

Will a 5o temperature rise matter?When Earth was 5o cooler:

http://www.scotese.com/lastice.htm

Warming is likely to cause sea level rise of 1-2 meters by 2100

- up to 300 million people could be flooded each year9

Much of U.S. would be affected by 1 meter rise10

Much of Florida would also be under water

So would much of the east coast

Climate change will also include altered precipitation patterns11

Summer Precipitation

Summer rainfall is predicted to decrease throughout U.S.12

Most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far13

2060-2069

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

mild

dro

ught

extr

eme

seve

re

mod

erat

e

exce

ptio

nal

Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s2

What will this mean for Earth’s species?It depends on the choices we make

3. If we remain on our current course, there will be serious adverse consequences for most species.

With 2o warming: 2,100 of 5,200 African plant species (40%) are predicted to go extinct14

3. If we remain on our current course, there will be serious adverse consequences for most species.

With 2o warming: 2,100 of 5,200 African plant species (40%) are predicted to go extinct

African mammals are likely to be adversely affected

With 3.5o warming: 55 of 275 species (20%) are predicted to go extinct15

Even if suitable future habitat exists, species may not be able to get there in time to avoid extinction

This is the worst time in Earth’s history for climate change

Which species are particularly vulnerable?

1. Species that have nowhere to go2. Species that live in coral reefs 3. Species that live on land in the tropics

High latitude species have nowhere to go

Most, but not all, polar bear populationsare predicted to decline dramatically by 205016

All decline or disappearby 2100

Alaska

Red = decliningBlue = increasing

All ice-obligate species are highly vulnerable

In Antarctica, Emperor and Adelie penguins need ice

but Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins nest on land

High altitude species may also have nowhere to go

All of Earth’s 1,009 montane bird species are predicted to be “climate losers”17

Coral reef species are also particularly vulnerable

because both warming and ocean acidification can cause bleaching

Even 2o warming is likely to cause a massive increase in bleaching events18,19

Acidification alone may make most or all of the ocean unsuitable for corals20

- 650 ppm CO2 may cause near total loss of coral reefs

Low Moderate High

Probability of disappearing climate

Tropical species have narrow temperature ranges, so are very likely to experience “disappearing climates”21

Therefore, tropical species are particularly vulnerable

Where do most species live?

What will happen to plants and animals in Ohio?

American beechWhite ash

10 of the 20 most abundant Ohio tree species are predicted to decline by at least 50%22-24

Sugar mapleBigtooth aspen

Black cherry

-91%

-89% -79% -78%

-100%White pine-100%

Three of the 20 most abundant Ohio tree species are predicted to increase22-24

+150-fold+112%Post oakBlack oakBlack gum

+14%

Several rare tree species are predicted to increase dramatically in Ohio22-24

Sweetgum+43-fold

- and many southern species are predicted to arrive

Shortleaf pine+104-fold

Winged elm+6-fold

Today

2o warming

Ohio forests are predicted to change fairly dramatically22-24

4o warming

But forests are more than just trees

36 Ohio bird species are predicted to decline by >90%25-26

Cedar Waxwing

-96%

Bobolink

-99%

Bank Swallow

-99%

Veery

-99%

House Wren

-99%

Savannah Sparrow

-100%

Willow Flycatcher

-98%Tree Swallow

-98%

Another 19 species are predicted to decline by 50-90%25-26

Rose-breasted Grosbeak

-69%

song sparrow

-89%

Yellow Warbler

-88%

American Redstart

-81%

Cerulean Warbler

-74%

Ovenbird

-56%

American Goldfinch

-53%

Blue-winged Warbler

-82%

32 species are predicted to increase by >50%

Loggerhead Shrike*

Pine Warbler*

Yellow-billed Cuckoo

+77%

+660-fold

+58%Summer Tanager

+5-fold

Chuck-will’s Widow*

Black Vulture*

Carolina Wren

+113-fold +104-fold +7-fold

Northern Bobwhite

+103%

10 new species are predicted to occur in Ohio25-26

Brown-headed Nuthatch

Snowy EgretLittle Blue Heron

Cattle Egret

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher

Bachman’s Sparrow

Mississippi Kite

Painted Bunting

4. If we remain on our current course, there will beserious adverse consequences for human health.

1. Increased heat stress

2. Increased disease

3. Increased malnutrition

4. Change in air quality

5. Change in frequency and/or severity of conflict

Major ways in which climate change is likely to affect human health:

and decreased cold stress

Record hot summers are likely to result in dramatic increases in heat stress13

Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade

2o C 4o C

For many cities, the number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves (~700 deaths) will increase dramatically28,29

Climate change is likely to increase vector-borne diseases

Malaria: World Health Organization estimates 250,000,000 cases and 1,000,000 deaths annually

- every 30 seconds a child dies from malaria30

+ 2o C

Malaria is generally predicted to increase, but change depends on climate scenario31

+ 4o C

With 2-4o warming:

200-400 million more people at risk worldwide by 208032

About 450 million of the world’s poorest people depend entirely on agriculture

- grains provide ~ 2/3 of the total human protein intake

1950-19592000-20092060-2069

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

Much more frequent and stronger droughts will decrease crop yields substantially

Future U.S. corn and soybean yields are likely to decrease dramatically33

20-25% decrease by 2050

55-60% decrease by 2100

Coal-fired power plants kill people34

Climate change is predicted to increase civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa by 50% in the next 20 years35

Most worrisome scenario: India and Pakistan start a “water war”36

- Indus supplies83% of Pakistan’sirrigationwater

Climate change is a major U.S. national security threat

“The effects of climate change in the world’s most vulnerable regions present a serious threat toAmerican national security interests. Washingtonmust lead on this issue now.”37

Partnership for a Secure America, February 2013

Developed countries are causing the problem, but developing countries suffer most of the effects38

Countries proportional to CO2 emissions through 2002:

Countries proportional to climate-related health effects:

What can I do to minimize climate change?

5. We don’t have to remain on our current course. We can change the future by implementing

multiple solutions that already are available.

Stop deforestation: great idea, but not a solution

Unfortunately, energy conservation is not a solution

- really just delays the outcome

This can only happen through aggressive expansion of alternate energy sources

Solar Wind

To limit warming to 2o C, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050

Globally, we generate only 0.2% of our energy from wind,and only 0.1% from solar39

23x

183x

18x3x8x

8x3x

30x183x

Global wind potential is >40 times worldwide use40

All 9 highest CO2-emitting countries could use wind alone

e.g. Luddington pumped storage plant

The “intermittency problem” can be solved easily

Solar energy has even greater potential Three main technologies:

photovoltaicssolar thermal parabolic trough

Global potential estimated at up to 100 times total current use41,42

A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all of the world’s electricity43

A solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide all of US energy needs today44

Again, “intermittency problem” can be solved easily

- store excess heat during day, generate electricity at night

solar thermal parabolic trough

Educate others

Encourage policymakers to make smarter choices

What would we gain by switching to green energy?

Higher Emissions Lower Emissions

3.5o Warming

Low Moderate High

Probability of disappearing climate

Switching to green energy sources would improve the fate of most species on Earth

2o Warming

Bottom Line:

1. We’re causing climate to change at an alarming rate.

2. If we continue on our current path, the future is very likely to include unprecedented hardships for all of Earth’s species, includinghumans.

3. We can change our path by using smarter choices we have available today.

Sources of information used in this talk1. Madsen, T. and E. Figdor. 2007. When it rains, it pours: Global warming and the rising frequency of extreme

precipitation in the United States. Environment Rhode Island Research and Policy Center. www.environmentrhodeisland.org.

2. Dai, A. 2011. Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2: 45-65. 3. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 2, Changes in

Atmospheric Constituents and Radiative Forcing, Section 2.9.2. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-9-2.html

4. Lockwood, M. and C. Froehlich. 2008. Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale. Proc. Roy. Soc. A 464: 1367-1385.

5. IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Chapter 9, Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Section 9.4.1.2. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch9s9-4-1-2.html

6. Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Howe, P. (2014) Climate change in the American mind: Americans’ global warming beliefs and attitudes in April, 2014. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.

7. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus; Cook et al. 2013. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environmental Research Letters 8 024024 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

8. IPCC AR4 WG1. 2007. Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections, G. A. Meehl and T. F. Stocker, Co-ordinating Lead Authors.

9. Stern, Nicholas. 2006. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. Chapter 3: How Climate Change Will Affect People Around The World. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

10. Weiss, A. and J. Overpeck. 2003. Climate Change and Sea Level. Environmental Studies Laboratory, Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona. www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm

11. IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, Section 10.3. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3.html

12. Walsh, J. and D. Wuebbles (Convening Lead Authors). 2013. National Climate Assessment Draft Report. Chapter 2: Our Changing Climate. http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-chap2-climate.pdf

13. Battisti, D. and R. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323: 240-244

14. McClean, C.J., J. Lovett, W. Kuper, L. Hannah, J. Sommer, W. Barthlott, M. Termansen,G. Smith, S. Tokumine, and J. Taplin. 2005. African plant diversity and climate change. Ann. Missouri Bot. Gard. 92:139-152.

15. Thuiller, W. et al. 2006. Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions. Global Climate Biology 12: 424-440.

Sources of information cited in this talk (cont.)16. Durner, G. et al. 2009. Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models. Ecological

Monographs 79: 25-58.17. LaSorte, F. and W. Jetz. 2010. Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming. Proc.

R. Soc. B 277: 3401-3410.18. Donner, S.D. 2009. Coping with commitment: Projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future

scenarios. PLoS ONE 4(6): e5712.19. Burke, L., K. Raytar, M. Spalding, and A. Perry. 2011. Reefs at Risk Revisited. World Resources Institute,

Washington D.C.20. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. 2007. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.” Science 318: 1737–

1742. 21. Williams, J., S. Jackson, and J. Kutzbach. 2007. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100

AD. Procedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104: 5738-5742. 22. Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson., S. Matthews., M. Peters. 2007-ongoing. A Climate Change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree

Species of the Eastern United States [database]. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree_atlas.html

23. Prasad, A. M., L. R. Iverson., S. Matthews., M. Peters. 2007-ongoing. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/ft_summary.html

24. Iverson, L. R., A. M. Prasad, S. N. Matthews, and M. Peters. 2008. Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management. 254:390-406. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/13412

25. Matthews, S.N., L. R. Iverson, A.M. Prasad, A. M., and M.P. Peters. 2007-ongoing. A Climate Change Atlas for 147 Bird Species of the Eastern United States [database]. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/bird, Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio.

26. Matthews, S. N., Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A. M. and Peters, M. P. 2011. Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change. Ecography, 34: no. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06803.x Published online: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06803.x/full

27. Patz, J., D. Campbell-Lendrum, T. Holloway and J. Foley. 2005. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438: 310-317.

28. Hayhoe, K., S. Sheridan, L. Kalkstein, and J. S. Greene. Climate change, heat waves, and mortality projections for Chicago. Journal of Great Lakes Research 36, no. Supplement 2 (2010): 65-73.

29. Hayhoe, K., J. VanDorn, N. Vaishali, and K. Wuebbles. Midwest: Projections of future temperature and precipitation.Cambridge, MA. Union of Concerned Scientists. http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/midwest-climate-impacts.pdf

Sources of information cited in this talk (cont.)

30. World Health Organization. 2012. World Malaria Report 2012. http://www.who.int/malaria/publications/world_malaria_report_2012/report/en/index.html

31. Tonnang, H., R. Kangalawe, and P. Yanda. 2010. Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa. Malaria Journal 9:111.

32. van Lieshout, M., R.S. Kovats, M.T. Livermore, and P. Martens. 2004. Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14: 87–99.

33. Schlenker, W. and M. Roberts. 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 15594-15598.

34. Schneider, C. and J. Banks. 2010. The Toll From Coal. Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA.35. Burke, M., E. Miguelc, S. Satyanathd, J. Dykemae, and D. Lobell. 2009. Warming increases the risk of civil war in

Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 20670–20674. 36. Center for Naval Analysis. 2007. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. 37. Partnership for a Secure America. 2013. The Cost of Inaction.

http://www.psaonline.org/downloads/PSAClimateChange_NationalSecurity%20Handout.pdf38. Costello, A. et al. 2009. Managing the health effects of climate change. The Lancet 373 (9676): 1693-1733.39. IPCC. 2011. Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change

Mitigation. O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlomer, and C. von Stechow (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

40. Lu, X., M. McElroy and J. Kiviluoma. 2009. Global potential for wind-generated electricity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 10933-10938.

41. Arvizu, D., P. Balaya, L. Cabeza, T. Hollands, A. Jager-Waldau, M. Kondo, C. Konseibo, V. Meleshko, W. Stein, Y. Tamaura, H. Xu, and R. Zilles. 2011. Direct Solar Energy. Chapter 3 in IPCC Special Report on Renewable EnergySources and Climate Change Mitigation [O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S.Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlomer, C. von Stechow (eds)], Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

42. National Academy of Sciences of the United States. 2010. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millenia. http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Stabilization-Targets-Final.pdf

43. Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar Power Final Report. German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Section Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment.

44. America's Solar Energy Potential. http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/solarenergy.aspx.

The next few slides were not part of the lecture, but have information about personal behaviors that

can help you reduce your carbon footprint.

1. Next time, buy a more fuel-efficient car

20 mpg 30 mpg

50 mpg34 mpg

How can I conserve energy?

Increasing by 10 mpg saves $585 and 1.6 tons of CO2 per year

2. Weatherize your home

weather-strip

insulate attic

single-pane windows → triple-pane windows

Would reduce U.S. CO2 emissions by 23 million tons/year

3. Next time, buy energy star appliances

Would reduce U.S. CO2 emissions by 15 million tons/year

4. When necessary, replace older furnace and central air conditioning unit with Energy Star model

Would reduce U.S. CO2 emissions by 14 million tons/year

5. Change to compact fluorescent light bulbs

One per household would have the same effect as taking 6 million cars off the road

- can save 7 tons of CO2 per year for a family of four

6. Turn the thermostat down (winter) or up (summer)

One GreenBlock costs $1.50/month and is equal

to driving 3,300 fewer miles

7. Offset what you can’t (or don’t want to) reduce

To offset all of my driving costs me $22/year

Can visit www.care2.com/click-to-donate/ daily to offset computer use