Five Key Findings from Why Forests? Why Now? The Science, Economics, and Politics of Tropical Forests and Climate Change

Frances Seymour and Jonah Busch

n Achieving climate stability requires conservation of tropical forests.

n Protecting tropical forests could lower the overall costs and

accelerate the achievement of global climate stability.

n Forests generate many non-climate goods and services that are

essential to meeting sustainable development goals.

n Advances in technology have made stopping forest loss feasible.

n Rich countries and international organizations should act now to

scale up REDD+ payment-for-performance agreements.

CGD Brief June 2017

Frances Seymour is a distinguished senior fellow at the World Resources Institute and a former senior fellow at the Center for Global Development

Jonah Busch is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development

Key numbers on tropical forests and climate change

24–30 percent The fraction of annual global greenhouse gas emissions that could be reduced by halting tropical deforestation entirely and letting damaged tropical forests regrow

28 percent The estimated reduction in the cost of meeting the global 2 degrees C temperature target if tropical forests are included in the world’s portfolio of mitigation actions alongside actions to reduce fossil fuel use

10+ The number of Sustainable Development Goals tropical forests contribute to

30 meters The resolution at which satellites now track deforestation worldwide

50+ The number of tropical countries that have formally expressed willingness to reduce emissions in exchange for external performance-based finance (REDD+)

Five Key Findings from Why Forests? Why Now? The Science, Economics, and Politics of Tropical Forests and Climate Change2

1. Achieving climate stability requires conservation of tropical forests.

At the landmark Paris climate conference in 2015, countries unanimously pledged to keep global temperature rise to well below two degrees Cel-sius. Realistic hopes of achieving such goals will depend on a dramatic reduction in tropical defor-estation. Forest loss is currently a major contributor to overall global greenhouse gas emissions, and protecting tropical forests is among the quickest and most affordable ways to decrease emissions. Ending tropical deforestation and letting damaged forests recover could reduce current annual global greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 24 to 30 percent. Forests are also a safe and natural carbon capture and storage technology. Halting tropical deforestation while allowing damaged forests to recover could secure an amount of car-bon equivalent to almost one-third of current an-nual emissions from all sectors.

2. Protecting tropical forests could lower the overall costs and accelerate the achievement of global climate stability.

Early forest-related agreements between industri-alized and developing countries have been con-cluded at a price per ton of avoided emissions far lower than the costs of alternative options to reduce emissions. In particular, forests offer a path to achieving the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration called for in the Paris Agreement that is dramatically cheaper than other carbon capture and storage technologies.

By reducing tropical deforestation, a cooler climate can be achieved more cheaply and quickly

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

Without Forests With Forests

$450

$400

$350

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

Without Forests With Forests

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

Without Forests With Forests

CHEAPER FASTERCOOLER

°C US billion/year year

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE COST OF ACHIEVING 2 °C YEAR OF PEAK EMISSIONS

Source: Busch, Engelmann, and Lépissier (2016).

“With Forests” refers to emission reductions from gross tropical forest cover loss and peat conversion; does not include emission reductions from forest degradation or forest regrowth.

CGD Brief June 2017 3

3. Forests generate many non-climate goods and services that are essential to meeting sustainable development goals.

On average, rural communities in and around forests derive more than one-fifth of household income from gathering wild forest products such as fuelwood, food, and medicinal plants. Forested watersheds constitute a green infrastructure that supplies the water for irrigating agricultural crops, generating hydroelectric power, and providing clean drinking water and sanitation. Intact forest vegetation increases resilience to the impacts of extreme weather events, including those exacer-bated by climate change, such as landslides on steep slopes and storm waves that batter coast-lines. Forests thus contribute to health and safety as well as to food and energy security.

FORE

STS

DEV

ELO

PMEN

T

GOODS & SERVICES

GOODS & SERVICES

INCOME

FOOD

ENERGY

HEALTH

SAFETY

GLOBALPUBLICGOODS

timber

non-timber products

tourism

wild foods, bush meat

freshwater and coastal fish

forage and fodder

erosion control

irrigation

rainfall patterns

pollination

less dam siltation

fuelwood and charcoal

clean drinking water

clean air

medicine

mosquito control

recreation

fire control

landslide prevention

tsunami wave attenuation

biodiversity

flood control

carbon storage

Tropical forests’ goods and servicescontribute to development

local temperatures

4. Advances in technology have made stopping forest loss feasible.

The last decade has witnessed a revolution in tech-nology to monitor changes in forest cover. Rapid advances in remote-sensing technology and com-puting power and new norms of transparency have changed everything. It is now possible not only to assess global changes in tree cover annu-ally at a resolution of 30 meters, but also to detect deforestation events (such as clearing and fires) with sufficient frequency to enable response in a matter of days.

5. Rich countries and international organizations should act now to scale up REDD+ payment-for-performance agreements.

Rich countries and international organi-zations should aggressively develop new sources of forest finance outside of de-velopment assistance budgets and institu-tions. To do this, they should:

n Allow international forest offsets in current and future compliance markets

n Pursue using their creditworthiness to attract private sector finance to forest protection

n Within existing flows of climate fi-nance, dedicate a larger share to forests, and allocate more of that share to results-based finance

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Frances Seymour is a distinguished senior fellow at the World Resources Institute and a former senior fellow at the Center for Global Development

Jonah Busch is a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development

More than 50 countries have initiated REDD+ programs, but only a few have access to performance-based finance with international funding

COUNTRIES THAT HAVE INITIATED REDD+ PROGRAMS

COUNTRIES WITH PERFORMANCE-BASED FINANCE AGREEMENTS SIGNED

“Countries that have initiated REDD+ programs with international funding” refers to countries that have signed a Preparation Grant with the World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, have active, closed or pipeline national programs with the UN-REDD Program, and/or participate in the Forest Investment Program, but did not yet have a payment-for-performance agreement in place as of December 2015. “Countries with performance-based finance” refers to countries that had a payment-for-performance agreement in place as of December 2015.

Sources: Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (2016); Forest Investment Program (2016); United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degration (2016).

BRAZIL (2008)

GUYANA (2009)

INDONESIA (2010)

LIBERIA (2014)

PERU (2014)

COLOMBIA (2015)ECUADOR (2014)