Fisheries (and Aquaculture) in the face of Climate Change: to adapt or not to adapt

Manuel Barange Director Fisheries and Aquaculture Division

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Rome, Italy

Manuel.barange@fao.org @Manu_FAO

HungerPoverty

Sustainability

Oct 1945, Quebec- 40 nations formed FAO

1950 - The World Census of Agriculture 1951- Headquarters move to Rome

1965 – COFI established

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Population

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Animal proteins by annual amount

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Undernourished people (Million)

2 billion experience moderate or severe

food insecurity

© FAO 2019

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t

Marine Capture

Inland Capture

Marine Aquaculture

Inland AquacultureFAO SOFIA 2018

• in 2017 = 153 million tonnes for direct human consumption

• 7-fold increase from 1950

t

2015 Paris Agreement includes a long-term adaptation goal, in a manner that does not threaten food production, alongside mitigation goals

2050

2050

Free et al. 2019. “maximum catch potential from 235 fish stocks worldwide from 1930 to 2010 decreased by 4.1%”

Bindoff et al. 2020. SROCC

Changes in Productivity

Affects caps

on future yields

Pinsky et al. 2018. Science 360

Changes in Range

Affects where

fish are caught

and who can

catch them

27% in profit

29% inbiomass

16% in harvest

Compared to TODAY, Full Adaptation could

lead to:

Gaines et al. 2018. Science Advances 4

Climate change risk VulnerabilityImpact on marine

fisheries

Impact on fisheries score is equivalent to the average estimate for % change in catch potential under the projection scenarios outlined in Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture (FAO 2018)

Country climate change indicatorsApproach

Nutritional dependence on fish

Economic dependence on fisheries

Development score

- Fish in diet- Food insecurity

- Fish in GDP- Fish in Trade- Fish in employment

- Social and economic- Governance indicator

Results – DBEM 2050 2.6

Overall Climate Change Risk (on Fisheries)

• Bangladesh• Benin• Cambodia• Cameroon• Gambia• Guinea• Guinea Bissau• Haiti• Kiribati• Liberia• Madagascar• Marshall Is.• Mauritania• Mozambique• Salomon Is.• Sao Tome and Principe• Senegal• Sierra Leone• Timor Leste• Togo• Vanuatu

Climate change riskPriority Countries for Adaptation

Countries with inland catch >30,000 t /yr (94% of total production)

Future Stress > Current Stress Bold – High to Very High Future stress

146 countries and 6 river basins assessed.Of the top producing countries:

Pakistan, Morocco, Turkey – Stressors will move from High to Very High in future

Turkmenistan, China, Mexico, Malawi, Iran, Kazakhstan – Stressors will move from Medium to High

Myanmar, Cambodia, Kenya, Chad, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Congo, South Sudan under low stress and projected to remain low in the future Barange et al. 2018. FAO TP. 627

Vulnerability of Freshwater farming systems

Unfavorable impacts predominate in developing countries, but adaptation measures are available. Vulnerability reduction depends on broader adaptation measures beyond the aquaculture sector. Higher risk countries:

Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, China (Freshwater); Viet Nam, Ecuador, Egypt, Thailand (Brackish); Norway, Chile (Marine)

Barange et al. 2018. FAO TP. 627

• Adaptation is placed and context based

• On-going and iterative

• Adapt to the possible rather than the probable

• Adaptation is not a zero-sum game: it can have very positive results

• Coordinated adaptation essential

• Political commitment + Societal support + Industry leadership

Institutional Adaptation

Livelihoods Adaptation

Risk Reduction and

Resilience

FAO Adaptation Toolbox

Eastern Caribbean

BenguelaCurrent

Chile

Myanmar

Malawi

GEF-funded Adaptation

FAO and partners Adaptation

St Lucia

S. Africa

Philippines

Bangladesh

NAP support

Kenya

Thailand

Uganda

Uruguay

Viet Nam

Zambia

EAF Nansen Programme

FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture – Climate Change Adaptation Portfolio

1. Transformative adaptation

2. Focus on attain robustness to variability rather than stability

3. Develop spatial management mechanisms able to adapt to the fast pace of climate change

4. Negotiate trade-offs and build on climate justice and equity considerations

5. Promote value-adding to compensate for decreasing productivity

6. Account for gender differences in terms of vulnerability

7. Invest in innovation

Session 6 – Fisheries Management in the face of a changing climate - MESSAGES

RISK vs REWARD

Thank you