fire behavior and smoke transport from extreme...
TRANSCRIPT
Fire Behavior and Smoke Transport from Extreme Events
David Peterson National Research Council – Monterey, CA
Edward Hyer, Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey, CA James Campbell, Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey, CA Jeremy Solbrig, Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey, CA Mike Fromm, Naval Research Laboratory – Washington, DC Johnathan Hair, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA Carolyn Butler, SSAI, Hampton, VA Marta Fenn, SSAI, Hampton, VA
NASA Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (AQAST 8), 12-02-2014, Atlanta, GA
1. Can we use fire observations to identify potential for high-altitude smoke injection and extreme fire spread?
2. How can we use weather information to improve automated short-term forecasts of smoke emissions?
3. How can we combine fire observations and weather information to improve smoke emission estimates?
Motivation and Goals
Aqua MODIS Fire Pixels
Rim Fire
Goal: Short-term, regional forecasts of smoke emissions in near real-time!
2
Previous Work in the North American Boreal Forest
3
Alaska
Smoke
Smoke
MODIS 1 July 2004
Study Year Advancement Peterson et al.
Atmos. Chem. & Phys. 2010 Assessment of conditions favorable for
dry lightning strikes and fire ignition
Peterson et al. Atmos. Env.
2013 Automated 24-hour prediction of large fire growth and decay
Peterson et al. J. Geophys. Res.
2014 Quantifying potential for high-altitude smoke injection using MISR and MODIS
Highest Smoke
MISR
5
4
3
2
1
0
(km)
The 2013 Rim Fire
4
Fire Details • Third largest fire in California's history
• Burned 30,000 ha in Yosemite National Park
• Endangered San Francisco’s power and water supply
• Two extreme fire spread events
• Two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events Air Quality and Visibility Impacts • Regional: Smoke plume reached across
North America!
• Local: Nearby cities/attractions had unhealthy air quality for days
AOD at Reno, NV frequently > 2 Smoke Emission/Transport Forecasts • Typically assume persistent fire activity!
• Impacts from extreme fire behavior?
Downtown Reno, 23 August 2013
Photo: Reno Gazette-Journal
Aqua MODIS: 23 August ~2100 UTC
Reno, NV
Rim Fire
Extreme Fire Spread & Pyroconvection
5
USFS Fire Progression: 8/17 (Ignition) – 9/22
8/26
8/22-8/23 ~35% of total
Fire Evolution from Airborne and Satellite Observations • USFS National InfraRed OPerationS (NIROPS, Red)
• GOES Fire Radiative Power (FRP, Black)
Instantaneous fire intensity plotted hourly
Related to biomass consumed, smoke released, and possibly burn severity
6 http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/news/3660/
• Two extreme fire spread and pyroCb events
• Fire weather indices (e.g. Haines Index) indicated extreme fire danger for entire primary burning period!
• Can we build an improved predictor?
PyroCbs
Peterson et al. (2014, BAMS)
Extreme Spread
L H
Moving to the NE
Upper-Level Meteorology (500 hPa)
NARR 500 hPa Heights & Wind Barbs, 22 August 2013, 00Z (5 PM PDT, 21 August)
Can we use upper-air analyses to forecast extreme spread & pyroconvection?
Rim Fire
7 GOES West
Identifying Extreme Fire Spread
Wind Speed • Most intense when a disturbance
was near the fire
• Remained strong at night!
Relative Humidity
• Below 35% for two nights during spread event #1
• Higher during spread event #2
• A reason for reduced spread? Implications • Fire weather indices are limited by
not including nocturnal and upper-level info!
• Top-down approach required for extreme spread forecasts?
• Nocturnal smoke emissions much higher than climatology! (Saide et al., in review, GRL) 8
Smoke Plume Characteristics: Extreme Fire Spread • Extreme FRP, but atmospheric column was dry
• Large smoke plume, only a few capping pyroCu
• Unstable lower-atmosphere (Haines Index = 6) and deep mixed layer (3-5 km AGL).
• Produces a positive feedback loop for spread
• Enhanced by upper-level/nighttime conditions!
Plume Dominated Fire 9
Aircraft Observations of the Rim Fire Smoke Plume
10
NASA Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys
(SEAC4RS)
• Two flights using the NASA DC-8 8/26 (Houston, TX to Spokane, WA) 8/27 (Spokane, WA to Houston, TX)
• Map contains smoke emitted over 4-5 days (23-27 August)
• SEAC4RS likely sampled 48-50 hours of smoke (~24-26 August)
https://espo.nasa.gov/home/seac4rs/
NASA DC-8 Flights Pink: 8/26 Orange: 8/27
Terra 8/27/13
Smoke Plume Altitude During Extreme Fire Spread
• DIAL/HSRL lidar sampled smoke emitted over 48-50 hrs (24-26 Aug.)
‒ Mixing with Idaho smoke? ‒ Idaho fires were decaying
Peterson et al. (2014, BAMS) NASA DC-8 aircraft during SEAC4RS (John Hair)
• Despite extreme FRP and pyroCu, nearly all smoke is below 3-5 km AGL!
• High enough for long distance transport.
11
PyroCb Impact on Smoke Altitude
• Most efficient avenue for lofting smoke ‒ Aided by latent heat release
• Different meteorological conditions from extreme fire spread?
12
J. Campbell, NRL - Monterey
L
CALIOP, beginning at 1039 UTC on 20 August 2013
Observation PyroCb Spread
Smoke Altitude > 8 km < 5 km
FRP Mod/High* Extreme
Haines Index 6 6
Toward the Prediction of PyroCbs
Extreme Plume Dominated Fire Fromm et al., 2010, BAMS
Pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) Development • How much FRP?
• Low-level instability (Haines Index = 6)
• Moisture/latent heat release is required!
• What is the primary moisture source? ‒ Combustion ‒ Ambient atmosphere
• Recent modeling studies disagree!
• Hypothesis: pyroCb environment similar to traditional high-based dry thunderstorms?
‒ Ahead of approaching disturbance ‒ Mid-level moisture advection ‒ Upper-tropospheric lapse rate (UTLR)
> 7.5 oC/km ‒ Upper-level dynamics favorable for
rising motion e.g. Rorig and Ferguson, 1999; Nauslar et al., 2013
Tropopause
Surface
13
Presence of Mid-Level Moisture Primary Burning Period Relative Humidity (Peterson et al., 2014, BAMS)
Ambient mid-upper level moisture seems necessary
for pyroCbs!
14 http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/#narr_datasets
GOES-14 Aqua MODIS
Favorable Meteorology for PyroCb Development 8/19/2013 8/21/2013
• Located well ahead of approaching cutoff low
• Extreme fire danger (Haines Index = 6)
• Unstable/moist mid-upper troposphere
• In the vicinity of traditional dry T-storms
• Divergence at 250 hPa
15
8/19: 250 hPa Heights, Wind Barbs, & Convergence 1x10-5 s-1
No PyroCb on 25 August?
16
Aqua MODIS: 2 PM PDT
PyroCu?
GOES 14: 5 PM PDT
Rim Fire
Convection • Located in vicinity of approaching short wave
• Extreme fire danger (Haines Index = 5)
• Unstable/moist mid-upper troposphere
• Devoid of traditional dry T-storms
• Convergence at 250 hPa
1x10-5 s-1
8/25: 250 hPa Heights, Wind Barbs, & Convergence
Extreme Fire Spread • Initiated by the passage of an upper-level disturbance (e.g. cutoff/shortwave) • Upper-level info may be useful for regional applications using NWP data • Effect on nighttime wind speed and relative humidity is key! • Likely corresponds to highest FRP, no large pyroCbs observed!
PyroCb Hypotheses • Requires entrainment of ambient mid-level moisture • Meteorological environment is similar to high-based dry thunderstorms • Upper-level dynamics/thermodynamics are key! • More important for lofting of smoke particles, less important for fire spread
Future Work • Examine additional pyroCb and extreme spread events • Conduct tests over a variety of regions using global NWP input data. • Ultimate goal: produce a global fire and smoke altitude prediction tool that
can be used for operational smoke emissions modeling (e.g. NRL’s FLAMBE).
Conclusions and Future Work
17
Thank You!
Acknowledgements and Related Publications Ralph Kahn (NASA), Jeff Reid (NRL), Mark Schug (USFS)
Brad Quayle (USFS), Bob Yokelson (U. Montana), Shelly Crook NASA SEAC4RS Science Team, DIAL/HSRL Lidar Group National Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship
*Peterson, D., Hyer, E., Campbell, J., Fromm, M., Hair, J., Butler, C., Fenn, M.: The 2013 Rim
Fire: Implications for Predicting Extreme Fire Spread, Pyroconvection, and Smoke Emissions, BAMS, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00060.1.
Peterson, D., Hyer, E., & Wang. J.: Quantifying the Potential for High-Altitude Smoke Injection in the North American Boreal Forest using the Standard MODIS Fire Products and Sub-Pixel-Based Methods, Journal of Geophysical Research, 2014.
Peterson, D., Hyer, E., & Wang. J.: A short-term predictor of satellite-observed fire activity in the North American boreal forest: toward improving the prediction of smoke emissions, Atmospheric Environment, 71, 304-310, 2013.
20
Near Surface Meteorology (850 hPa)
8/19 NNE, 5 kts Downhill
PyroCb #1
8/20 S, 5-10 kts
Uphill
8/21 SSW, 15-20 kts
Uphill
PyroCb #2
8/22 SW, 15-20 kts
Uphill Spread Event #1
No PyroCb!
L L
L
Upper-Level Meteorology: Spread Event #2
NARR 500 hPa Heights & Wind Barbs, 25 August 2013, 21Z (2 PM PDT)
Convection
Periods of extreme fire spread initiated by an upper-level disturbance? Second spread event preceded by a shortwave trough…
21
GOES 14
Rim Fire
Data Gap
PyroCu Extreme Spread
GOES PyroCb Detection Algorithm PyroCb #1 PyroCb #2
• BT11 < LCL Temp. (Clouds)
Traditional Convection
Input Data: • 12x12 pixel box (~48 km) • 11 µm min brightness temp. (BT11) • Max 4-11 µm BT difference (BTD) • LCL Temp. (NARR-derived)
PyroCb (ice cloud): • BT11 < -35oC • BTD > 50oC
Marginal PyroCb (non-ice): • -35oC < BT11 < -20oC • BTD > 50oC
General PyroCu (small): • BT11 < LCL Temp. • Confirmed visually by
MODIS/GOES 100% Cloudy!
22
µ µ
Using a 12 x 12 pixel box… Dashed black = 11 um max Solid black = 11 um min Blue = clouds, e.g. min 11 um BT < LCL temp. (mean of 0.85 C) Green = 4-11 um max Red = GOES FRP
No fire data retrieved. Cloud obscuration?
PyroCb threshold for 4-11 um (+50 C)?
Threshold for min 11 um (-35 C)?
This may actually be pyroCu?
Individual PyroCb
23
Fire Weather Index (FWI) Using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR, 32 km)
Extreme
> 6 mm > 1 mm
1. Do fire observations contain information to identify potential for high smoke injection and extreme fire spread?
2. How can we use weather information to improve automated short-term forecasts of emissions for AQ models?
3. How can we combine fire observations and weather information to improve smoke emission estimates in near-real-time and retrospectively?
Toward Building a Fire Prediction Model
Solid black: mean FWI Green: daily precipitation Dashed Black: max or min
Limitations of Fire Weather Indices • Extreme fire danger during
majority of Rim Fire
• Representativeness error near small-scale precip
• Lack upper-level meteorology!
See Peterson et al., 2013, Atmos. Env. 24
Rim Fire PyroCb Synoptic Pattern
8/19 PyroCb 8/21 Marginal PyroCb
25
250 hPa Convergence Upper Trop. Lapse Rate
Tropopause Height
Rim Fire Upper Troposphere
26
700-400 hPa Mean RH
700-400 hPa Mean Theta-e 700-400 hPa Mean Omega
500 hPa Vorticity Advection
Rim Fire Middle Troposphere
27
Mid-Elevation Haines Index
Mid-Elevation Continuous Haines Index
Boundary Layer Height
Rim Fire Lower Troposphere
28
Sfc. RH Sfc. Wind Speed
Sfc. Temp.
Night mean
Day mean
Rim Fire Surface
29
Direction of spread 8/17-8/19
Direction of spread after 8/19
Wind Direction Relative to Topography
5 PM PDT, 8/22 SSW, 15 Kts
L
24-hr Spread: > 40,000 Acres
30
Huntsville, Alabama HSRL, 8/19
Additional PyroCbs & High-Altitude Smoke During SEAC4RS
Date (2013) Fire State 8/8 Beaver Creek Idaho 8/8 McCan Idaho 8/9 Pony, Elk? Idaho
8/10 Elk Idaho 8/10 NA Canada? 8/12 Pony Idaho 8/13 Pony Idaho
HYSPLIT Backward Trajectories
8/16 Gold Pan 8/16 Beaver Creek
Selected PyroCbs
From Mike Fromm, NRL - DC
Time (UTC)
PyroCb impact on smoke properties?
31 http://hsrl.ssec.wisc.edu/by_site/
Highest Smoke
0
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000 Height (m)
1000
MISR Plume Height Data
Radiant heat drives plume height!
Motivation: • Only ~21% of plumes reach the free
troposphere • These are the plumes that will have
widespread impacts
• Most relevant for large-scale smoke transport!
Goal: • Identify fire characteristics related to
high-altitude injections
Key Results: • Combining pixel and sub-pixel fire data
improves plume height characterization
• Sub-pixel fire area and temperature can predict higher injections
Work in Progress:
• Integrate RS and weather info to develop a skillful predictor of pyroconvection!
Mean Fire Temp: 663 K Total Fire Area: 0.17 km2
Radiant Heat Flux: 14.6 kW/m2
Maximum Fire Temp.
Peterson et al. (2014, JGR)
Quantifying Potential for High-Altitude Smoke Injections
32
The 2013 Rim Fire
33
Air Quality & Visibility Impacts
• Regional: Smoke plume reached across North America!
• Local: Reno, NV AOD frequently > 2
Fire Details • Third largest fire in California's history
• Burned 30,000 ha in Yosemite National Park
• Endangered San Francisco’s power and water supply
• Two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events
Terra 8/27/13