1Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

FINAL PROGRAM

7th Innovations in Travel Modeling ConferenceJune 24-27, 2018

Grand Hyatt AtlantaAtlanta, GA

Organized byTransportation Research Board

Sponsored by Traveler Behavior and Values (ADB10)

Effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on Travel Choices (ADB20)

Transportation Network Modeling (ADB30) Transportation Demand Forecasting (ADB40)

Transportation Planning Applications (ADB50)Special Committee for Travel Forecasting Resources (ADB45)

PowerPoint Presentations are Linked to the Presentation Titles. Please Click to View

2 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

CONFERENCE PATRONS

Thank You!

GOLD

PLATINUM

SILVER

UNIVERSITY

COPPER

TRB sincerely appreciates and thanks the following organizations for their generous patronage of the ITM Conference

BRONZE

WELCOME

Welcome to ITM2018!

With the dawn of a new era of transformative disruptions in transportation – characterized by automa-tion and connectivity, autonomy and sharing, and on-demand mobility and delivery – the need for innova-tions in travel modeling has never been greater. Transport modelers are being challenged every day to explore new frontiers in big data analytics and harness the power of machine and deep learning algorithms to simulate and forecast mobility demand and travel patterns under a wide range of future scenarios of automation and connectivity. When the Innovations in Travel Modeling conference series was founded through a collaborative effort among several committees of the Transportation Research Board Travel Analysis Methods Section a dozen years ago, many of the disruptive innovations that are being talked about today did not even appear in the conference program. Within a short span of just 12 years, the field is experiencing a tectonic shift, thanks to the many changes in the economic, demographic, technological, and attitudinal landscape of mobility. It is against this backdrop of change that we bring you ITM2018 and welcome you to Atlanta, a vibrant metro area steeped in history and culture that is experiencing rapid growth and change of its own. The ITM conference series has become the leading venue for researchers and practitioners to come together and collectively shape the future of transport modeling. Following the tradition of past ITM conferences that have brought modeling innovations to life, ITM2018 showcases the latest and greatest methods, data, and tools that are potentially ready for prime time. The conference program includes presentations on such hot topics as modeling autonomous vehicle futures, using and fusing big data for modeling applications, and comparing machine learning algorithms with statistical methods for modeling traveler behavior. The program committee has assembled workshops dedicated to addressing risk and uncertainty in travel forecasts, plenary sessions featuring thought leaders in the field, and parallel sessions providing critical insights on modeling diverse modes and markets. In addition, the conference program offers many exciting opportunities for experiencing Atlanta and networking with fellow modelers. On behalf of the conference organizing committee, we sincerely thank our ITM2018 patrons and exhibitors, whose generous support makes events like this possible. We are also very grateful to the Transportation Research Board staff for their tireless efforts behind the scenes in conference organization and logistics. And, of course, we thank you for joining us at ITM2018; it is your presence that makes for an intellectually stimulating and satisfying conference experience. We hope you enjoy ITM2018 and all that it has to offer.

Ram M. Pendyala, Arizona State UniversityITM2018 Committee Co-Chair

Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional CommissionITM2018 Committee Co-Chair

Ram Pendyala, Co-Chair, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZGuy Rousseau, Co-Chair, Atlanta Regional Commission, Atlanta, GA

Rebekah Anderson, Ohio Department of Transportation, Columbus, OHChandra Bhat, The University of Texas, Austin, TX

Ken Cervenka, Federal Transit Administration, Washington, D.C.Cynthia Chen, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Giovanni Circella, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GARick Donnelly, WSP, Inc., Albuquerque, NM

Julie Dunbar, Dunbar Transportation Consulting, Bloomington, ILSong Gao, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA

Brian Gardner, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.Konstadinos Goulias, University of California, Santa Barbara, CAHabte Kassa, Georgia Department of Transportation, Atlanta, GA

Josie Kressner, Transport Foundry, Atlanta, GADavid Kurth, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Denver, CO

Vladimir Livshits, Maricopa Association of Governments, Phoenix, AZSubrat Mahapatra, Maryland State Highway Administration, Baltimore, MD

Michael Mahut, INRO, Quebec, CanadaRolf Moeckel, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany

Patricia Mokhtarian, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GAMaren Outwater, Resource Systems Group, Inc., San Diego, CA

Joan Walker, University of California, Berkeley, CALisa Zorn, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, San Francisco, CA

TRB StaffJennifer Weeks

Bruce MillarMary KissiTed Jamele

The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to increase the benefits that trans-portation contributes to society by providing leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied committees, task forces, and panels annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation.www.TRB.org

CONFERENCE PLANNING COMMITTEE

5Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

Sunday, June 24

11:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Registration Lower Lobby, Prefunction

1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Workshop 1A

1A: Risky Business (Travel Forecasting – Not the Movie) Buckhead I

3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. Concurrent Workshops 2A, 2B

2A: An Approach to Better Understanding Forecasting Uncertainty - Exploratory Modeling and Analysis Workshop

Buckhead I

2B: Model Validation with Mobile Device Data Buckhead II

5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m. Social Event: Walking Tour (free) of the Path 400 trail(path400greenway.org)

Monday, June 25

7:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Registration Lower Lobby, Prefunction

7:30 a.m. – 8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast Lower Lobby, Prefunction

8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. Opening Session: Welcome to the World of Innovations in Travel Modeling

Grand Ballroom I & II

10:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. Break Lower Lobby, Prefunction

10:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Exhibit Lower Lobby, Prefunction

10:30 a.m. – Noon Concurrent Sessions: 1A, 1B, 1C

1A: Moving the Goods for the Good of All Grand Ballroom I

1B: Yes We Can Model AVs Buckhead I

1C: Sketching a Vision with VisionEval Buckhead II

Noon – 1:30 p.m. Lunch Grand Ballroom II & III

Noon – 1:30 p.m. Meeting of ADB45: Special Committee for Travel Forecasting Resources (Mandatory for Committee Members; All are Welcome)

Cascade

1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Concurrent Sessions: 2A, 2B, 2C

2A: The Joy of Modeling Methods Grand Ballroom I

2B: Are We Ready for the AV Future? Buckhead I

2C: Quantum Leaps in Measuring Behavior Buckhead II

3:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. Break Lower Lobby, Prefunction

3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. Interactive Panel Session: Understanding, Modeling, and Steering Mobility Future Session

Grand Ballroom I & II

5:30 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. Welcome Reception Grand Ballroom III

CONFERENCE AT A GLANCE

6 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

7:00 p.m. Social Event: Dine Around Lower Lobby, Prefunction

Tuesday, June 26

7:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Registration Lower Lobby, Prefunction

7:30 a.m. – 8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast Lower Lobby, Prefunction

7:30 a.m. – 8:30 a.m. Meeting of the ITM2018 Conference Steering Committee (by invitation only)

Cascade

7:30 a.m. – 5:00 .m. Exhibit Lower Lobby, Prefunction

8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. Concurrent Sessions: 3A, 3B, 3C

3A: Lightning Talk Session: Modeling Across Modes and Markets Grand Ballroom I & II

3B: The True Theory of Modeling Buckhead I

3C: This is Huge! Passive Big Data Applications Buckhead II

10:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. Break Lower Lobby, Prefunction

10:30 a.m. – Noon Interactive Panel Session: Data and Methods Fusion in a new TDM Landscape

Grand Ballroom I & II

Noon – 1:30 p.m. Lunch on Your Own

1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. Concurrent Sessions: 4A, 4B, 4C

4A: Lightning Talk Session: Modeling Potpourri Grand Ballroom I & II

4B: Advancing Modeling Practice to Make it Perfect Buckhead I

4C: The Battle of the Methods – Machine/Deep Learning vs Econometric/Statistical Modeling

Buckhead II

3:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. Break Lower Lobby, Prefunction

3:30 p.m. – 5:00 p.m. Plenary Session: Soft and Powerful: On Incorporating Values and Perceptions into Travel Forecasting

Grand Ballroom I & II

5:30 p.m. onwards Social Event: Optional Baseball Game at the New SunTrust Park, Home of the Atlanta Braves (Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:35 PM). See website for details about ticket purchase and logistics

Lower Lobby, Prefunction

Wednesday, June 27

7:30 a.m. – Noon Registration Lower Lobby, Prefunction

7:30 a.m. – 8:30 a.m. Continental Breakfast Lower Lobby, Prefunction

7:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. Exhibit Lower Lobby, Prefunction

7Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. Concurrent Sessions: 5A, 5B, 5C

5A: Lightning Talk Session: Data Come in All Sizes – Let’s Use it Wisely

Grand Ballroom I & II

5B: It’s All About Traveler Behavior Buckhead I

5C: Integrated Modeling of Modes and Markets Buckhead II

10:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. Break Lower Lobby, Prefunction

10:30 a.m. – Noon Concurrent Sessions: 6A, 6B, 6C

6A: Lightning Talk Session: Getting a Handle on Future Mobility Technologies

Grand Ballroom I & II

6B: Cool Model Applications Buckhead I

6C: Developing and Implementing Sustainable Strategies and Solutions for Multimodal Travel Behavior Data – NextGen NHTS and Beyond

Buckhead II

Noon – 12:30 p.m Grab a Box Lunch and Reconvene Lower Lobby, Prefunction

12:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. Closing Session: Looking Ahead – The Future of Innovations in Travel Modeling

Grand Ballroom I & II

2:00 p.m. Adjourn - See You at ITM2020

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11:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionRegistration

1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. Workshop 1A - Buckhead I Risky Business (Travel Forecasting – Not the Movie)Moderator: Habte Kassa, Georgia Department of Transportation

Agency Perspectives Regarding Quantifying Uncertainty in Travel ForecastsBrian Gardner, FHWAGreg Giaimo, Ohio Department of Transportation Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission

Technical Approaches for Quantifying Uncertainty in Travel Forecasts

California High Speed Rail Approach Rachel Copperman, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

VisionEval/Regional Strategic Planning Model (RPSM) & Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR) Brian Gregor, Oregon Systems Analytics LLC

Exploratory ModelingBen Stabler & Mark Bradley, RSG

University PerspectiveJimi Oke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Panel Discussion / Q&A

3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m.Concurrent Workshops

Workshop 2A - Buckhead IAn Approach to Better Understanding Forecasting Uncertainty - Exploratory Modeling and Analysis WorkshopModerator: Brian Gardner, Federal Highway Administration

Project BackgroundSarah Sun, Federal Highway Administration

Exploratory Modeling & Analysis Project, Phase 1 & 2 EffortsBen Stabler & Mark Bradley, RSG

Exploratory Modeling and Analysis - Developing a Practical ApproachMartin Milkovits, Rachel Copperman & Thomas Rossi, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Sarah Sun & Brian Gardner, Federal Highway Administration

Exploratory Modeling and Analysis “Hands-on” Workshop Martin Milkovits, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

• Introduction to Buffalo Case Study• Scoping Breakout Session• Simulation Results Overview• Risk Analysis Breakout Session• Exploratory Analysis Breakout Session

CONFERENCE AGENDA

Sunday, June 24

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Workshop 2B - Buckhead IIModel Validation with Mobile Device DataModerator: Vladimir Livshits, Maricopa Association of Governments

IntroductionVladimir Livshits, Maricopa Association of Governments

Innovative Validation/Calibration of Dynamic Traffic Simulations Daniel Morgan, Caliper Corporation

Utilization of Mobile Device Data for Model Validation and Development Bill King, AirSage

Model Validation Using Novel Big Data Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission

5:30 p.m. - 6:30 p.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionWalking Tour (free) of the Path 400 trail (path400greenway.org)

10 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Registration

7:30 a.m. - 8:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m., Grand Ballroom I & II Opening Session: Welcome to the World of Innovations in Travel ModelingModerator: Rolf Moeckel, Technical University of Munich

WelcomeGuy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission & Ram M. Pendyala, Arizona State University

Keynote: Economic, Technology and Mobility Trends Shaping Transport ModelingCatherine Ross, Harry West Professor and Director of Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development, School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology

Keynote: Did Someone Say Teleportation? The Power of New Spatial Narratives Derek Woodgate, President and Chief Futurist, The Futures Lab, Inc.

10:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionBreak

10:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

10:30 a.m. - NoonConcurrent Sessions

Session 1A - Grand Ballroom IMoving the Goods for the Good of AllModerator: Greg Giaimo, Ohio Department of Transportation

Portland, Oregon Behavior-based Freight and Commercial Vehicle ModelColin Smith, RSG

A Multi-Scale Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Urban Freight DistributionAndré Romano Alho, Takanori Sakai, Bhavathathran B. K., & Diem-Trinh Le, Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and TechnologyMoshe Ben-Akiva, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Behavioral Freight Model for the United StatesMaren Outwater, Colin Smith, Kaveh Shabani & Erica Wygonik, RSG Birat Pandey, Federal Highway AdministrationAnne Goodchild, University of WashingtonMatthew Roorda, University of Toronto

Session 1B - Buckhead I Yes We Can Model AVsModerator: Josie Kressner, Transport Foundry

Incorporating Connected and Autonomous Vehicles and Ride-Hailing Services in the Traditional Four Step ModelChandra Bhat, Felipe Dias, Gopindra Nair, James Kuhr & Natalia Ruiz Juri, The University of Texas at Austin Arash Mirzaei, North Central Texas Council of Governments

Monday, June 25

11Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

Using an Activity-Based Model with Dynamic Traffic Simulation to Explore Scenarios for Private and Shared Autonomous Vehicle Use in JacksonvilleMark Bradley & Ben Stabler, RSGHoward Slavin & Daniel Morgan, Caliper Corporation

Modeling Connected and Automated Vehicles in a Four-Step Travel Demand Model for the Chittenden County RegionBenjamin Swanson, Vincent Bernardin & Sumit Bindra, RSGJason Charest, Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission

A Framework for Modeling Connected and Autonomous Vehicles in the New Michigan Statewide Model Vincent Bernardin, Stephen Tuttle & Steven Trevino, RSGJesse Frankovich, Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT)

Session 1C - Buckhead II Sketching a Vision with VisionEvalModerator: Ram M. Pendyala, Arizona State University

An Operational Open-Source Model System and Software Framework Supporting Agile Model Development of Strategic Planning ModelsBrian Gregor, Oregon Systems Analytics LLC

Piloting a Contribution Review Process for the VisionEval Strategic Planning Modeling Framework Ben Stabler, RSGTara Weidner, Oregon Department of TransportationKristin Hull, Jacobs CH2M

Capturing the Built Environment - Travel Connection for Strategic Planning: Development of a Multi- Modal Travel Module for VisionEvalLiming Wang & Huajie Yang, Portland State UniversityBrian Gregor, Oregon Systems Analytics LLCTara Weidner, Oregon Department of Transportation

Modeling in the Open: Best Practices and Lessons Learned for Development of VisionEval, an Open Source Strategic Planning ProjectDan Flynn & Erika Sudderth, Volpe National Transportation Systems CenterBrian Gardner & Jeremy Raw, Federal Highway Administration

Noon - 1:30 p.m., Grand Ballroom II & III Lunch

Noon - 1:30 p.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

Noon - 1:30 p.m., CascadeMeeting of ADB45: Special Committee for Travel Forecasting Resources(Mandatory for Committee Members; All are Welcome)

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1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.Concurrent Sessions Continue

Session 2A - Grand Ballroom ILightning Talk Session: The Joy of Modeling MethodsModerator: Sara Khoeini, Arizona State University

Achieving Massively Parallel Agent-Based Microsimulations Through the Actor Model of Computation Sidney Feygin, Colin Sheppard, Rashid Waraich & Andrew Campbell, University of California at Berkeley Michael Zilske & Anand Gopal, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

A Time-Dependent Intermodal A* Algorithm for Heterogeneous Travelers with Efficient Heuristics Omer Verbas, Joshua Auld, Hubert Ley & Randy Weimer, Argonne National Laboratory

The Integration of Regional MPO Models in the Georgia Statewide Travel Demand ModelAli Etezady, Alyas Widita, Giovanni Circella, Timothy Welch & Habte Kassa, Georgia Institute of Technology Ram Pendyala, Arizona State University

Investigating Car Ownership and Commuting Travel in the UK Through Gaussian Process Latent Variable ModelsKaveh Jahanshahi & Ying Jin, University of Cambridge

Travel Demand Modeling Using a Randomized Bayesian Network (RBN) Model Ismail Saadi, Ahmed Mustafa, Jacques Teller & Mario Cools, University of Liège

Successes in Multi-Resolution Modeling – Case Study 1: Streamlining Transportation Investment District EvaluationsScott Thompson-Graves, Ashley Tracey & Jonathan Avner, WRA, LLP

Successes in Multi-Resolution Modeling Case Study 2: Project Ranking and Prioritization using Maryland Department of Transportation’s State Highway Administration’s Multi-Resolution Modeling System Jonathan Avner & Scott Thompson-Graves, WRA, LLPSubrat Mahapatra, Maryland State Highway Administration

Development of Virginia Statewide Transportation Model Feng Liu, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Peng Xiao, Virginia Department of TransportationPatrick Coleman, AECOM Consult, Inc.

Georgia Express Lane Modeling Using Activity-Based Model Jennifer Zhan, Modern Mobility Partners, LLC

An Integrated Model System of Transport Demand and Household Energy Consumption Ram Pendyala, Sara Khoeini & Shivam Sharda, Arizona State University

Empowering Virtual Agents with the Freedom to Choose: Embedding Modal Choice Models into BEAM, the Agent-Based Framework for Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and MobilityColin Sheppard, Rashid Waraich, Sid Feygin, Andrew Campbell, Michael Zilske, Tom Wenzel, & Anand Gopal, Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryJoan Walker, University of California, Berkeley

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Session 2B - Buckhead IAre We Ready for the AV Future?Moderator: Giovanni Circella, Georgia Institute of Technology and the University of California at Davis

A Time-space-speed Network Model for Trajectory Optimization of Connected Automated VehiclesXiaopeng Li & Yu Wang, University of South Florida

Development and Application of a Model to Estimate Driverless Autonomous Vehicle TripsSteve Ruegg, WSP, Inc.Jonathan Ehrlich, Metropolitan Council of the Twin Cities

Modeling the New Mobility: Integrating Autonomous Vehicles, the Sharing Economy and the Impacts of E-Commerce into a Model FrameworkEric Petersen, Metrolinx

Modeling Willingness-to-Share Trips in an Autonomous Vehicle Future: A Stochastic Psychological Latent Construct ApproachChandra Bhat & Patricia Lavieri, The University of Texas at Austin

Session 2C - Buckhead II Quantum Leaps in Measuring BehaviorModerator: Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission

Revealing Freight Vehicle Tours and Tour Patterns from GPS Vehicle Tracking and Driver Survey Data André Romano Alho, Takanori Sakai & Bhavathathran B. K., Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and TechnologyKyungsoo Jeong & Moshe Ben-Akiva, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Bridging Survey Response and Revealed Behavior in a Quantum Cognition Model Jiangbo Yu & R. Jayakrishnan, University of California at Irvine

When Neutral Responses on a Likert Scale Do Not Mean Opinion Neutrality: Accounting for Unsure Responses in a Hybrid Choice Modeling FrameworkMichael Maness, Parvathy Sheela & Suryaprasanna Balusu, University of South FloridaAbdul Pinjari, Indian Institute of Science

3:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionBreak

3:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m., Grand Ballroom I & II Interactive Plenary Session: Understanding, Modeling, and Steering Mobility FuturesModerator: Maren Outwater, RSG

Jon Petersen, Uber ElevateYoram Shiftan, Technion, Israel Institute of TechnologyPatricia Lavieri, The University of Texas at AustinHani S. Mahmassani, Northwestern University

5:30 p.m. - 7:00 p.m., Grand Ballroom III Welcome Reception

7:00 p.m. onwards - Lower Lobby, PrefunctionConference Organized Dine-AroundJoin fellow ITM attendees and enjoy great conversation over a nice dinner at a fine dining establishment near the venue; sign-up onsite

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7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Registration

7:30 a.m. - 8:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Continental Breakfast

7:30 a.m. - 8:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

7:30 a.m. - 8:30 a.m., CascadeMeeting of the ITM2018 Conference Steering Committee (by invitation only)

8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. Concurrent Sessions

Session 3A - Grand Ballroom I & II Lightning Talk Session: Modeling Across Modes and MarketsModerator: Thomas Rossi, Cambridge Systematics

Incorporating Infrastructure Characteristics and Vehicular Interactions into an Agent-Based Transport Simulation Framework for a Realistic Simulation of Bicycle TrafficDominik Ziemke & Amit Agarwal, Technische Universität Berlin

Shared Autonomous Vehicles as a Replacement for Buses: A Simulation Study in Berlin Gregor Leich & Joschka Bischoff, Technische Universität Berlin

An Accessibility-Driven Transit Network Design Timofey Volotskiy & Kai Nagel, Technische Universität Berlin Jaroslav Smirnov, ITMO University

An Innovative Transport Model Architecture Aiming at Forecasting a Passenger Railway's Future Wolfgang Scherr, Swiss Federal Railways

Measuring Disruption by Ridesourcing Services on Taxi Operations in Chicago Cemal Ayvalik & Kimon Proussaloglou, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

Estimating Transit Fare Elasticity Using Panel Models, Metro Vancouver Case Study Mohamed Salah Mahmoud, TransLink

Techniques for Assessing Transportation Gaps of Environmental Justice PopulationsStephen Mattingly, Ziaur Rahman, Noelle Fields, Courtney Cronley, Vivian Miller & Saeed Reza Ramezanpour Nargesi, The University of Texas at Arlington

Development of a Model of Activity-Travel Well-Being to Assess Impacts of System Changes on Quality of LifeRam M. Pendyala, Denise Capasso da Silva, Shivam Sharda & Sara Khoeini, Arizona State University

Annual Estimation of Vehicle Miles Traveled in San FranciscoDan Tischler, Joe Castiglione, Drew Cooper & Bhargava Sana, San Francisco County Transportation Authority

Impacts of Transit-Oriented Compact-Growth on Air Pollutant Concentrations and Exposures in the Tampa RegionSashikanth Gurram & Amy Stuart, University of South FloridaAbdul R. Pinjari, Indian Institute of Science

Tuesday, June 26

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Session 3B - Buckhead IThe True Theory of ModelingModerator: Greg Erhardt, University of Kentucky

Bridging Discrete Mode Choice Modelling and Microsimulation in MATSim Sebastian Hörl, Milos Balac & Kay Axhausen, ETH Zurich

A “True” Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) Choice Model Chandra Bhat, The University of Texas at Austin

Computational Approaches for Efficient Estimation of Discrete Choice Models Jeffrey Newman & Laurie Garrow, Georgia Institute of Technology

A Spatial Multiple Discrete-Continuous Model with a Multivariate Skew-Normal Distribution for the Kernel Error Term and Unobserved HeterogeneityChandra Bhat & Sebastian Astroza, The University of Texas at Austin

Session 3C - Buckhead IIThis is Huge! Passive Big Data ApplicationsModerator: Michael Mahut, INRO

Using Big Data to Develop a Profile of TNCsDrew Cooper & Joe Castiglione, San Francisco County Transportation Authority Christo Wilson & Alan Mislove, Northeastern University

Overview of Methods for Validation and Expansion of Passively Collected Origin-Destination Data Vincent Bernardin, RSG

Understanding Regional Travel Patterns With Big Data Hadi Sadrsadat & Vincent Bernardin, RSGDan Avery, Northeastern Indiana Regional Coordinating Council

10:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Break

10:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

10:30 a.m. - Noon, Grand Ballroom I & IIInteractive Panel Session: Data and Methods Fusion in a New TDM LandscapeModerator: Rick Donnelly, WSP, Inc.

Josie Kressner, Transport FoundryDavid Ory, WSP, Inc.Greg Erhardt, University of Kentucky

Noon - 1:30 p.m. Lunch on Your Own

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1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.Concurrent Sessions Continue

Session 4A -Grand Ballroom I & II Lightning Talk Session: Modeling PotpourriModerator: Vince Bernardin, RSG

A Transition to Cloud Model UseSuzanne Childress, Stefan Coe & Brice Nichols, Puget Sound Regional Council

Open Source Sparse Matrix Implementation of Least Squares Matrix Estimation Chetan Joshi, PTV Group

Measuring the Impact of Technology-related Disruptions on Future Supply Chains and Freight Travel DemandArun Kuppam, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Vladimir Livshits, Sreevatsa Nippani & Daehyun You, Maricopa Association of Governments

A Multi-Resolution Index for Intermodal Freight ConnectivitySamuel Jordan, Ahmadreza Talebian, Sabyasachee Mishra & Mihalis Golisas, University of Memphis

Why Should I Care: Innovative Performance Measures That Matter to Non-Modelers Scott Thompson-Graves, Ross Buchan & Ashley Tracy, WRA LLP

Tolls and Trolls: Analyzing Sentiments from 17 Years of Toll Road Survey Comments Rachel Schmidt & Tristan Cherry, RSG

Prospector: An Open Source Data Visualization FrameworkBhargava Sana & Joe Castiglione, San Francisco County Transportation AuthorityBilly Charlton, Because LLC

After MATSim Has Finished Running: Presenting Some New Visualizations Billy Charlton, Technische Universität Berlin

Using a Population Synthesizer to Derive Robust and Consistent Weights for Survey Sample Data Ram M. Pendyala & Taehooie Kim, Arizona State UniversityDaehyun You, Maricopa Association of GovernmentsAnurag Komanduri, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Karthik C. Konduri, University of Connecticut

Generating Detailed Multimodal Choice-Sets Using Distributed Parallel Computing Anson Stewart & Andrew Byrd, Conveyal

Session 4B - Buckhead I Advancing Modeling Practice to Make it PerfectModerator: David Ory, WSP, Inc.

Recent Developments in Population Synthesis Gaurav Vyas & Peter Vovsha, WSP, Inc.

Adapting an Existing Activity Based Modeling Structure for the New York Region Rachel Copperman, Jason Lemp & Thomas Rossi, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Chandra R. Bhat, Sebastian Astroza & Abhilash Singh, The University of Texas at Austin Ram M. Pendyala & Sara Khoeini, Arizona State University

Estimation of Telecommuting Impact with the Atlanta Activity-Based Model Kyeil Kim & Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional CommissionJonathan Nicholson, AtkinsRosella Picado, WSP, Inc.

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Gaussian Process Regression for Risk Analysis of Travel Demand ForecastsJeffrey Newman, Rachel Copperman, Jason Lemp & David Kurth, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Boris Lipkin, California High-Speed Rail AuthorityMatt Henley & John Helsel, WSP, Inc.

Session 4C - Buckhead IIThe Battle of the Methods – Machine/Deep Learning vs Econometric/Statistical ModelingModerator: Mark Bradley, RSG

A Comparative Analysis of Utility Maximization and Machine Learning Models to Predict Number of Vehicle Body Types Owned by a HouseholdYi Hou, Venu Garikapati & Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Comparison of Logit Models to Machine Learning Algorithms for Modeling Individual Daily Activity Pattern TypesDaniel Fay, Gaurav Vyas & Peter Vovsha, WSP, Inc.

A Machine Learning Approach to Travel Modeling Liming Wang, Portland State University

Crossroads of Travel Modeling Today Peter Vovsha, WSP, Inc.

3:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Break

3:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m., Grand Ballroom I & II Plenary Session: Soft and Powerful: On Incorporating Values and Perceptions into Travel ForecastingModerator: Chandra R. Bhat, The University of Texas at Austin

Patricia L. Mokhtarian, Georgia Institute of Technology Suzanne Childress, Puget Sound Regional Council Arun R. Kuppam, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

5:30 p.m. onwards - Lower Lobby, PrefunctionOptional Baseball Game at the New SunTrust Park, Home of the Atlanta Braves (Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:35 PM). (See website for details about ticket purchase and logistics)

18 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

7:30 a.m. - Noon, Lower Lobby, Prefunction Registration

7:30 a.m. - 8:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Continental Breakfast

7:30 a.m. - 8:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. Concurrent Sessions

Session 5A - Grand Ballroom I & II Lightning Talk Session: Data Come in All Sizes – Let’s Use it WiselyModerator: David Kurth, Cambridge Systematics

External System for the MCCOG Regional Model Stephen Tuttle & Vincent Bernardin, RSGRobert Wertman, Madison County Council of Governments

Use of Big Data to Calibrate and Validate Travel to Special Travel Destinations Joel Freedman & Nagendra Dhakar, RSGRick Curry & Wu Sun, San Diego Association of Governments

Insights from Big and Small Data: Which Trips and Travelers are Captured by Location-Based Services Data?Leah Flake, Vince Bernardin, Elizabeth Greene & Jeffrey Dumont, RSGRebekah Anderson, Ohio Department of Transportation

Incorporating Big Data in an Activity-Based Travel Model: The Chattanooga Case Study Jason Chen & Vince Bernardin, RSGYuen Lee, Chattanooga-Hamilton County Planning Agency

Predictive Model to Estimate Rideshare TripsZeina Wafa & Anurag Komanduri, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

I-295 Truck Corridor Study in Richmond Region using Streetlight OD Data Srin Varanasi, The Corradino GroupSulabh Aryal, Richmond Regional Transportation Planning Organization

A Suite of Model Updating and Validation Procedures Using Third Party Origin-Destination Data Gregory Giaimo, Ohio Department of Transportation

Development of an Agile, Data-Driven, Hybrid Trip-Based Model Framework Steven Trevino, RSGVincent Bernardin, RSG

Big Data "Triage" Before Modeling Laura Schewel, StreetLight Data

Using Real-World Traffic Incident Data in Transport Modeling Ihab Kaddoura & Kai Nagel, Technische Universität Berlin

Wednesday, June 27

19Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

Estimation of Truck Counts with Multiple Truckload Categories: A Data-Fusion Approach and a Case Study in Florida for the Estimation of Empty Truck CountsAbdul R. Pinjari, Indian Institute of Science, BangaloreDongfang Zhao, Suryaprasanna Balusu, Parvathy Sheela & Xiaopeng Li, University of South FloridaNaveen Eluru, University of Central FloridaFrank Tabatabaee, Florida Department of Transportation

Truck Data Collection to Understand Curb Usage and E-Commerce Impacts in Downtown LA Anurag Komanduri & Arun R. Kuppam, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

Session 5B - Buckhead IIt’s All About Traveler BehaviorModerator: Konstadinos G. Goulias, University of California at Santa Barbara

Improving the Spatial Transferability of Travel Demand Forecasting Models: An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Incorporating Attitudes on Model TransferabilityMichael Maness, Divyakant Tahlyan & Parvathy Sheela, University of South FloridaAbdul R. Pinjari, Indian Institute of Science

Analysis of Habitual Travel Patterns and Conventional Mobility Expenses on Emerging Mobility ChoicesHamidreza Asgari & Xia Jin, Florida International University

Location Choice Including Intervening Opportunities Stefan Mabit, Technical University of Denmark

A Discrete Choice Model of Change in Departure Time in Response to the BART Perks Social-Media-Based Incentive ProgramMark Bradley, RSGJoe Castiglione, San Francisco County Transportation Authority Ryan Greene-Roesel, Bay Area Rapid TransitCamille Guiriba, San Francisco County Transportation Authority

Session 5C - Buckhead IIIntegrated Modeling of Modes and MarketsModerator: Billy Charlton, Technische Universität Berlin

A Proposed Tool for Transit Fare Structure Evaluation: Integration of Smart Card Data with Regional Demand ModelsAli Darwiche & Jacob Fox , TransLink

Integrated Land Use/Transport Models: The Use of Microsimulation to Better Account for Low-Income Households and People with DisabilitiesRolf Moeckel & Ana Moreno, Technical University of Munich

Incorporating Long-Distance, Visitor, and Summer Travel into the New Michigan Statewide Model Stephen Tuttle & Vincent Bernardin, RSGJesse Frankovich, Michigan Department of Transportation

10:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Break

10:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m., Lower Lobby, PrefunctionExhibit

20 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

10:30 a.m. - NoonConcurrent Sessions Continue

Session 6A - Grand Ballroom I & II Lightning Talk Session: Getting a Handle on Future Mobility TechnologiesModerator: Ian McIntyre, Colorado Department of Transportation

Estimating the Potential Impacts of AVs and TNCs using an Activity-Based Travel Demand Model in MTP/SCS Scenario DevelopmentYanmei Ou, Sacramento Area Council of Government

Connected Vehicle Pilot Project Performance Monitoring and Emission Analysis Jing Xu, HNTB CorporationHabte Kassa, Georgia Department of Transportation

Exploring the Relationship Between the Emergence of Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) and Growing Congestion in San FranciscoSneha Roy, Jacob Brashear, Alex Mucci, Greg Erhardt & Mei Chen, University of KentuckyDrew Cooper, Bhargava Sana, Dan Tischler & Joe Castiglione, San Francisco County Transportation Authority

Analyzing TNC Usage in San Diego Using Data from a Smartphone-Based Household Travel Survey Mark Bradley & Christopher Coy, RSG

Impact Assessment of Autonomous DRT SystemsJoschka Bischoff & Michal Maciejewski, Technische Universität Berlin

Model-based Optimal Control of Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems in Multi-modal Transportation NetworksRamon Iglesias, Federico Rossi, Matthew Tsao & Marco Pavone, Stanford University

Forecasting in an Era of High Uncertainty: Predicting the Geographic Spread of Car-Sharing Eric Petersen, MetrolinxAli Darwiche, TransLink

Analyzing the Impact of Zero Occupancy Vehicle Miles Traveled in a Shared Private Mobility EnvironmentMahmoud Javanmardi, Joshua Auld & Omer Verbas, Argonne National Laboratory

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Scenarios using a VisionEval model in OregonTara Weidner, Brian Gregor, Dejan Dudich & Alex Bettindardi, Oregon Department of Transportation

Discovering Robust Urban Mobility Futures via Agent Based Simulation in Prototype CitiesJimi Oke, Eytan Gross, Carlos Azevedo, P. Christopher Zegras, Joseph Ferreira & Moshe Ben-Akiva, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Agent-Base Simulation of Autonomous Electrified Transportation Network CompaniesColin Sheppard, Rashid Waraich, Sid Feygin, Michael Zilske, Tom Wenzel & Anand Gopal, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

21Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

Session 6B - Buckhead I Cool Model ApplicationsModerator: Peter Vovsha, WSP, Inc.

A DTA Framework for Analyzing Managed Lanes Daniel Morgan & Janet Choi, Caliper Corporation

Innovative Assignment Process for a Statewide Model William Allen, Citilabs, Inc.

Sample Enumeration Model for Airport Ground Access Surabhi Gupta & Peter Vovsha, WSP, Inc.

Integrating Travel and Epidemic Models for Vector Borne Disease SurveillanceKrishnan Viswanathan, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.Ashok Srinivasan, Meysam Ghaffari, Judy Wang, Anunth Chari, Anuj Mubayi & Hongmei Chi, Florida State University

Session 6C - Buckhead IIDeveloping and Implementing Sustainable Strategies and Solutions for Multimodal Travel Behavior Data – NextGen NHTSModerator: Stacey Bricka, MacroSys & Julie Dunbar, Dunbar Transportation Consulting

NextGen NHTS opportunitiesWenjing Pu, Federal Highway Administration

Data Analytics and Modeling Methods for Tracking and Predicting Origin-Destination Travel Trends based on Mobile Device Data Lei Zhang and Sepehr Ghader, University of Maryland

Passive Data Modeling: A Method for Fusing Passive Data and Survey Data Josie Kressner & Greg Macfarlane, Transport Foundry

Beyond NextGen… What’s Next? David Ory, WSP, Inc.

Noon - 12:30 p.m., Lower Lobby, Prefunction Grab a Box Lunch and Reconvene

12:30 p.m. - 2:00 p.m., Grand Ballroom I & II Closing Session: Looking Ahead – The Future of Innovations in Travel ModelingModerator: Patricia L. Mokhtarian, Georgia Institute of Technology

Emerging Travel Modeling Needs under Autonomous and Connected TechnologiesSrinivas Peeta, Purdue University

Open Forum: Discussion Facilitated/Moderated by Rick Donnelly, WSP, Inc.

2:00 p.m. Adjourn – See You at ITM2020

22 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

ABOUT OUR PATRONS

Mobility VisualizationTraffic SimulationTransportation Planning

BringYour Cityto LifeDiscover how INRO software can help you develop multimodal travel models, citywide traffic simulations and engaging visualizations for your city.

23Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

WORLD-CLASS DEMAND MODELING

& STRATEGIC PLANNING

Find out more at ptv.to/visumsld

PTV Visum is a comprehensive, flexible software for strategic transportation planning. Around the globe, PTV Visum is used for metropolitan, regional and state-wide infrastructure planning.

• Multimodal network modeling with tour-based and 4-step demand model calculations

• Static and dynamic assignment methods, including simulation-based dynamic assignment

• Distinct public transportation assignment procedures and operational planning modules

• Big Data integration through partnerships with TomTom and StreetLight Data

• Seamless integration with PTV Vistro and PTV Vissim

PTV Visum – the world’s leading software for transportation forecasts, analyses, and GIS-based data management.

24 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

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27Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

AirSage is Traveling in the ‘Fast Lane’ atTRB Innovations in Travel Modeling Conference

(Immediately following the last session)Gordon Biersch - 3242 Peachtree Road NE, Atlanta, GA

Join us for a Happy Hour Sunday, June 24

For more information about AirSage, please visit www.AirSage.com or call 404-809-2499.

AirSage, a leading provider of population movement data and analytics, is proud to sponsor TRB’s 7th Annual Innovations in Travel Modeling Conference. Boasting the widest coverage of any location-based service provider in the country, AirSage collects and analyzes location data and mobile signals that produce billions of anonymous activity points daily. AirSage provides unmatched scale and accuracy, while fully protecting user privacy.

Airsage - ITM Tradeshow Ad.indd 1 5/7/18 9:04 AM

28 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

EXHIBITORS

Aimsun is an international team of technologists, scientists, and transportation

engineers with a singular focus on solving the world’s most complex mobility problems: The team brings its experience to projects as diverse as modeling the interaction of public and private vehicles to simulating the role of artificial intelligence and machine learning, testing autonomous vehicles, or offering insights into smarter multi-modal transportation choices. Thousands of mobility professionals worldwide in gov-ernment, research institutions and private companies are successfully using Aimsun software and services to model tomorrow’s smart mobility networks, today.

Caliper Corporation is the developer of TransCAD, the predominant and premier

software package for travel demand modeling in North America. Caliper is also the developer of TransModeler, a micro-simulation software package that provides unprecedented capability, usability, and capacity for mi-croscopic traffic modeling and dynamic traffic assign-ment. Both applications are extremely flexible, extensi-ble, and fully-integrated with Caliper’s full-featured and user-friendly geographic information system are often deployed in tandem for a complete integration of macroscopic and microscopic modeling environments. Both packages are extremely high performing and represent the state of the art in modeling software technology.

At Citilabs, we build robust solutions that empower mean-

ingful change for the betterment of communities and organizations by understanding the movement of people, goods and vehicles. Citilabs’ solutions allow us-ers to measure, manage and predict how people move and goods flow, advising the transportation, advertis-ing, insurance, real estate, retail, mobility services and automotive industries. Headquartered in Sacramento, with offices in Atlanta, Tallahassee, Abu Dhabi, Milan, and Singapore, Citilabs has a 40-year history as a global industry leader and supports more than 2,500 clients in more than 70 countries. For more information, visit www.citilabs.com.

Discover how INRO software can help you develop multimodal

travel models, citywide traffic simulations and engaging visualizations for your city. Emme multimodal trans-portation forecasting, Dynameq multiscale traffic simu-lation and CityPhi mobility visualization and analytics software are collectively used in over 1000 organiza-tions in more than 80 countries, including half of the world’s largest cities. INRO has brought leading-edge research and software to the transportation planning field for over three decades, and today continues to innovate in the field it helped define with a strong tradition of research and new product development.

MS2 has developed cloud-based software which maps, manages

and analyzes crash data, vehicle volume data, turning movement count data and more. Our clients are public sector traffic engineers or transportation planners who need a more modern way to manage and analyze these complex data sets.

PTV Group plans and optimizes everything that moves people and goods worldwide – whether

it’s transport routes, distribution structures, or private and public transport - all integrated, and in real-time. PTV America, Inc. is the North American subsidiary of PTV Group. We help cities, companies, and people, save both time and money. We’re leaders in delivering and supporting innovative transportation and logistics solutions, and for the application of our state-of-the-art transportation software. Our main focus is to provide expertise in transportation planning, traffic operations, traffic engineering, routing, mapping and optimization for our customers.

StreetLight Data makes it easy, affordable, and efficient

to use real-world transportation data. We bring mobil-ity patterns to light by providing on-demand access to the best Big Data resources and processing software for transportation. Our online platform, StreetLight InSight®, lets you turn locational mobile device data into customized, actionable analytics. Visit our exhibit for a live demo with our team.

29Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

SPECIAL THANKS TO OUR LOCAL HOSTS

30 Innovations in Travel Modeling - 2018

Notes

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Notes

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