fewer hippos more lab coats compressed - r . …...fewer hippos more lab coats highest paid...
TRANSCRIPT
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Catherine Leigh
Fewer HiPPOs
More Lab Coats
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Highest paid person’s opinion Data driven decisions
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Change is a constant
Change is a constant
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2 months ago
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Today
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Some Examples
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BlockbusterReal world examples
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Ford EdselReal world examples
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Ford EdselReal world examples
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OJ SimpsonReal world examples
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Probabilities can changeReal world examples
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OJ SimpsonReal world examples
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Medicine
http://www.alzheimersresearchuk.org/
Real world examples
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Where do you sit?
Bad Good
Misinterpretation
Getting it right
Ignoring data
No data
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How to Get it Right
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Change is a constant
Change is a constant
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Hypothesis testing is a tool for managing uncertainty
Change is a constant
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Hypothesis generalisation:
H0: nothing is different(the null hypothesis)
H1: something is different(the alternative hypothesis)
Change is constant
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Hypothesis example with coins:
H0: this coin is unbiased (the null hypothesis)
H1: this coin is biased(the alternative hypothesis)
Change is constant
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Hypothesis example with coins:Change is constant
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If H0 was true, what is the chance of seeing a result this extreme?
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Hypothesis example with coins:Change is constant
> pbinom(9, size=20, prob=0.5) * 2[1] 0.8238029
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Hypothesis example with coins:Change is constant
> pbinom(9, size=20, prob=0.5) * 2[1] 0.8238029
82%
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Hypothesis example with an AB test:
H0: a new logo will not affect bounce rate*(the null hypothesis)
H1: a new logo will affect bounce rate(the alternative hypothesis)
Change is constant
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Hypothesis example with an AB test:Change is constant
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Hypothesis example with an AB test:Change is constant
Bounces
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Hypothesis example with an AB test:Change is constant
> library(stats)> amazingLogoTest <-+ matrix(c(1000, 4000, 1152, 3853),+ nrow = 2,+ dimnames = list(visitorAction = c("Bounce", "Stay"),+ logo = c("Boring", "Best Logo Ever")))> fisher.test(amazingLogoTest, alternative = "less")Fisher's Exact Test for CountDatadata: amazingLogoTestp-value = 0.0001316alternative hypothesis: true odds ratio is less than 195 percent confidence interval:0.0000000 0.9070399sample estimates:odds ratio0.8361718
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Hypothesis example with an AB test:Change is constant
> library(stats)> amazingLogoTest <-+ matrix(c(1000, 4000, 1152, 3853),+ nrow = 2,+ dimnames = list(visitorAction = c("Bounce", "Stay"),+ logo = c("Boring", "Best Logo Ever")))> fisher.test(amazingLogoTest, alternative = "less")Fisher's Exact Test for CountDatadata: amazingLogoTestp-value = 0.0001316alternative hypothesis: true odds ratio is less than 195 percent confidence interval:0.0000000 0.9070399sample estimates:odds ratio0.8361718
0.01%
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Change is a constant
Hypothesis testing is a tool for managing uncertainty
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You will need...
34
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You will need...
35
> install.packages(“stats”)> library(stats)
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