Fertility Decline over the Past 35 Fertility Decline over the Past 35 years: What Have We Learned?years: What Have We Learned?

Shareen JoshiShareen JoshiGeorgetown University Georgetown University

Rachel Nugent Rachel Nugent Center for Global DevelopmentCenter for Global Development

April, 2010 April, 2010

Since 1970, fertility rates have Since 1970, fertility rates have fallen everywherefallen everywhere

TFR > 8 TFR>6 TFR>4.5 TFR<3.5

Number of countries, 1970 4 84 122 54

Number of countries, 2005 0 12 39 131

Note: Analysis is based on a sample of 188 countries for whom fertility data is available in 1970 and 2005. We also exclude from our sample, all those countries for whom data on TFRs is missing in 1970.

Source: World Development Indicators Online, 2009.

There are two major groups of There are two major groups of countries…countries…

Fertility Trends

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

YR

19

70

YR

19

72

YR

19

74

YR

19

76

YR

19

78

YR

19

80

YR

19

82

YR

19

84

YR

19

86

YR

19

88

YR

19

90

YR

19

92

YR

19

94

YR

19

96

YR

19

98

YR

20

00

YR

20

02

YR

20

04

YR

20

06

Years

Fe

rtili

tiy

Ra

tes

High-Low Countries

High-High Countries

Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

One group has experienced a One group has experienced a dramatic fall in fertilitydramatic fall in fertility

High-Low Countries

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

YR1

97

0

YR1

97

2

YR1

97

5

YR1

97

7

YR1

98

0

YR1

98

2

YR1

98

5

YR1

98

7

YR1

99

0

YR1

99

2

YR1

99

5

YR1

99

7

YR2

00

0

YR2

00

2

YR2

00

5

YR2

00

6

Year

Ferti

lity

Rat

e

Algeria

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Belize

Bhutan

Botswana

Brunei Darrussalam

Dominica

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

India

Indonesia

Iran Kuwait

Krygzic Republic

Libya

Maldives

Mexico

Mongolia

Morocco

Myanmar

Nicaragua

Peru

Qatar

South Africa

St. Lucia

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Tunisia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

United Arab Emirates

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

The other has had much less The other has had much less fertility declinefertility decline

High-High Countries

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

YR19

70

YR19

72

YR19

75

YR19

77

YR19

80

YR19

82

YR19

85

YR19

87

YR19

90

YR19

92

YR19

95

YR19

97

YR20

00

YR20

02

YR20

05

YR20

06

Year

Ferti

lity

Rate

AngolaBeninBurkina Faso

BurundiCameroonCentral African RepublicChadCongo

Cote D'IvoireEquitorial GunieaEritreaEthiopia Gambia

Guinea BissauKenyaLiberiaMadagascarMalawai

MaliMauritianaMozambiqueNiger

NigeriaRwandaSenegalSierra LeoneSomalia

TanzaniaTimor LesteTogoUgandaWest Bank/Gaza

YemenZambia

Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

Most of these are in Sub-Saharan Most of these are in Sub-Saharan AfricaAfrica

Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

24

68

TF

R

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Sub-Saharan Africa South AsiaMiddle East & North Africa Latin America & CaribbeanEast Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia

Drivers of fertility decline in HL Drivers of fertility decline in HL countriescountries

• Increases in income • Expansion of education (particularly for women) • Decreases in infant and child mortality • Diffusion of information • Urbanization

• Increased use of modern contraceptives • Increases in age at marriage

There is no “perfect” recipe, no critical threshold for any

of these variables

Lets look at the income variableLets look at the income variable

The relationship between fertility and income The relationship between fertility and income has remained negative for a long timehas remained negative for a long time

1970

1990

2005

02

46

TF

R

0 10000 20000 30000

GNI per-capita

But in 1970, HH countries were similar But in 1970, HH countries were similar to HL countries in terms of both fertility to HL countries in terms of both fertility

and income per-capita… and income per-capita…

CARCameroon

Kenya

Malawi

NigerRwanda

Dem. Rep. Congo

Zambia

Brazil

Botswana

China

Gabon

Honduras

India

Iran

Korea

Kuwait

NepalThailand Venezuela

02

46

810

TF

R, 1970

2 4 6 8 10 12

Log of GNI per-capita, 1970

……they diverged significantly in the they diverged significantly in the years that followedyears that followed

CAR Cameroon

EritreaEquatorial Guinea

Kenya

Malawi

Niger

Rwanda

Uganda

Yemen

Dem. Rep. Congo

Zambia

Bangladesh

Brazil

Botswana

China

GabonHonduras

India

Iran

Cambodia

Korea

Kuwait

Nepal

Thailand

Venezuela

02

46

810

TF

R, 2005

2 4 6 8 10 12

Log of GNI per-capita, 2005

An interesting comparison from the most recent data

• There are many examples of HL countries that achieved fertility decline under lower per-capita incomes than many of today’s HH countries

HL countries

GNI per-capita (current US $)

TFR HH countries

GNI per-capita (current US $)

TFR

Bangladesh $440 2.9 Mali $450 6.6Lao PDR $480 3.3 Zambia $500 5.3Nepal $300 3.1 Uganda $290 6.8

Another variable: EducationAnother variable: Education

Madagascar

Yemen

MaliBurundi

Kenya

NigerUganda

Malawi

MoroccoMaldives

BrazilBhutan

IndiaEgypt

Iran24

68

TF

R

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Primary school completion, percent

The variation is even more The variation is even more significant for female educationsignificant for female education

AfghanistanBurundi

Burkina Faso

Kenya Madagascar

Mali

Malawi

Niger

Rwanda

Uganda

Yemen

Brazil

BotswanaIndia

Iran

LibyaMorocco

Oman

24

68

TF

R

40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Female gross enrolment rates, percent

Some interesting comparisonsSome interesting comparisons

• All countries with less than 90% gross enrolment rates All countries with less than 90% gross enrolment rates tend to be HL countries tend to be HL countries

• But there is still lots of variation at higher gross But there is still lots of variation at higher gross enrolment rates: enrolment rates:

• Many countries achieved fertility decline with low levels of educationMany countries achieved fertility decline with low levels of education• Bangladesh Bangladesh • Vietnam Vietnam

HH countries

Primary school enrolment

TFR HL countries

Primary school enrolment

TFR

Nigeria 96% 5.5 Lebanon 95% 2.2

Cameroon 108% 4.5 India 114% 2.6

What is the role of policy?What is the role of policy?

Population Policy• Direct policies • Indirect policies

Economic Policies

Health + Education

Policy

Population policies have been shaped Population policies have been shaped by both domestic and international by both domestic and international

trendstrends

International population policy has International population policy has shown several shiftsshown several shifts

1950—1970

1970—1990

1990—Now

For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming

Domestic population policies vary Domestic population policies vary significantlysignificantly

Lessons on what works:

• Strong national leadership

• An evidence-based approach

• A focus on the poorest and most marginalized

For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming

Conclusion: No perfect recipe but lots Conclusion: No perfect recipe but lots of options available to policy-makers! of options available to policy-makers!

Population Policy•Direct policies • Indirect policies

Economic Policies

Health + Education

Policy