fertility decline in uzbekistan:
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Fertility decline in Uzbekistan:. persistent early motherhood during economic crisis . David Clifford, University of Southampton [email protected]. Central Asia’s demographic interest. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Fertility decline in Uzbekistan:persistent early motherhood during economic crisis
David Clifford, University of [email protected]
Central Asia’s demographic interest
Muslim population invites comparisons with the demography of the Arab Middle East (Rashad 2000), or with Iran (Hakimian 2006)
Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991 Dramatic social, political and economic
changes Countries of FSU - ‘rich material’ for
examining the impact of these changes on fertility behaviour (Agadjanian 1999:426)
Central Asia ‘neglected’ in fertility transition literature
(Barbieri et al. 1996:69, Agadjanian 1999)
Post-socialist fertility change Have to rely on literature on C and E European experience
dramatic decreases in fertility (Sobotka 2004 Fig 7.1)
How was this fertility decline achieved?
Sobotka (2004) – diversity of experience Central Europe:
• postponement; ‘ageing’ of fertility• Low TFR1• TFR decline largely driven by tempo effects
Ex-Soviet: • retained early pattern of first births • High TFR1, dramatic decline at higher orders (e.g.
Perelli-Harris 2005-Ukraine)• TFR decline reflects change in fertility quantum
Reasons for decline?
Economic crisis vs. new opportunities/ values Sobotka (2004)-importance varies
C Europe- impact of new opportunities Post-Soviet –impact of economic crisis
Relationship between extent of crisis and extent of postponement: Severe crisis: ‘slower deconstruction of
socialist greenhouse environment’ (Sobotka 2002:61)
Wages-postponement relationship (Sobotka 2004, Fig.7.11)
(Uzbekistan: 81.1% decline in real wages)
TFR in Uzbekistan, 1990-2003Sources: UNICEF Transmonee,
ORC Macro
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
TFR
Survey estimates Official
Economic Crisis in Uzbekistan
Source: UNICEF TransMonee
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Inde
x va
lue
(198
9=10
0)
Real GDP growth Real wages
Source: UNICEF Transmonee
post-Soviet Uzbekistan
Expectation of maintained early age pattern of births during fertility decline
Data
Official fertility data unreliable Surveys most helpful Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey,
2002Part of Demographic and Health
Survey projectNationally Representative5588 women, aged 15-49
Trends
I.e. maintenance of early childbearing.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Med
ian
Age
at E
vent
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Median Age at First BirthMedian Age at First Marriage
Period: change in MAFM and MAFB
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
010
020
030
0B
irths
per
1,0
00 w
omen
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44Age group
1991-93 1994-96
1997-99 2000-02
Period
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)Period: Trends in ASFR
Results
0
20
40
60
80
100
% M
arrie
d in
coh
ort
16 18 20 22 24Age in completed years
1973-77
1978-82 1968-72
1963-67
Birth cohorts
Cohort: Age at First Marriage Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
0
20
40
60
80
% G
iven
Birt
h in
Coh
ort
18 20 22 24 26Age in completed years
1973-77
1978-82 1968-72
1963-67
Birth cohorts
Cohort: Age at First Birth
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
0
1
2
3C
hild
ren
ever
bor
n
20 22 24 26 28 30Age in completed years
1973-77
1978-82 1968-72
1963-67
Birth cohorts
Cohort: Cumulated fertility
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
Economic crisis and fertility decline Economic crisis specifically reducing higher
order births in Uzbekistan
First order births not affected by postponement a strategy for uncertainty reduction? ‘impetus
for parenthood the greatest amongst those whose alternative pathways for reducing uncertainty are blocked’ - Friedman et al (1994)
Women with no prospect of pursuing education or employment may choose to have children early (Sobotka 2002, Perelli-Harris 2005)
Too simplistic to consider economic crisis alone..
Conservative attitudes; re-emergence ofIslam?
May have role to play in persistence of early motherhood; less so in stopping behaviour
An unfair comparison..?
..with post-socialist change in C and E Europe? At time of independence
C Asia –high fertility Vs C and E Europe - low fertility
Different culture, history, level of development
On the other hand, despite these differences.. post-Soviet countries have tended to maintain early age pattern
of first birth Well documented (Perelli-Harris 2005, Steshenko 2000 –
Ukraine, Bulgaru et al. 2000 – Moldova, Ivanov and Echenique (2000) – Russia)
Specifically those countries most affected by economic crisis
Trends
I.e. maintanance of early childbearing.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Med
ian
Age
at E
vent
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Median Age at First BirthMedian Age at First Marriage
Period: change in MAFM and MAFB
Source: Analysis of UHES (2002)
MAFB in Central and Eastern Europe
FSU
Just another developing country transition?
Not an unusual pattern of fertility decline Just another developing country experiencing
decline? Substantive reasons to doubt it, particularly 1990-7
lack of modernisation ‘Gendered’ post-socialist transition Declines in education
Mason (1997)- different fertility declines have different causes. Different stories of change
References
Agadjanian, V (1999) Post-soviet demographic paradoxes: Ethnic differences in marriage and fertility in Kazakhstan. Sociological Forum. 14(3): 425-446.
Barbieri M, Blum A, Dolkigh E and Ergashev A (1996) Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in Uzbekistan Population Studies 50:69-88
Bulgaru M, Bulgaru O, Sobotka T and Zeman K. (2000). Past and present population development in the Republic of Moldova, in Kučera T, Kučerová O, Opara O and Schaich E (eds.) New Demographic Faces of Europe. Berlin: Springer, pp. 221-246.
Friedman, D, Hechter M, et al. (1994). A theory of the value of children Demography 31(3): 375-401.
Hakimian, H (2006) From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s. Development and Change 37(3): 571-597.
Ivanov, S and Echenique V (2000) Demographic Situation and Mortality Trends in Russia. in T. Kučera, O Kučerová, O Opara and E Schaich (eds). New demographic faces of Europe: the changing population dynamics in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Springer.
Mason K O (1997) Explaining Fertility Transitions Demography 34(4):443-454Perelli-Harris (2005) The path to lowest-low fertility in Ukraine. Population Studies 59(1):55-70. Rashad, H (2000) Demographic Transition in Arab Countries: a New Perspective Journal of
Population Research 17(1): 83-101.Sobotka, T (2002) Ten years of rapid fertility changes in the European post-communist countries.
Population Research Centre Working Paper Series 02-01.Sobotka, T (2004) Postponement of childbearing and low fertility in Europe. Dutch University Press.UNICEF (2005) TransMONEE Database, UNICEF IRC, Florence.
e-mail: [email protected]
How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 1989 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)
How was this fertility decline achieved? ASFR, 2000 (Sobotka 2004 Fig. 7.4)