feasibility study on urgent water …unavailability of local water sources. the panjshir fan aquifer...

INDEPENDENT BOARD FOR NEW KABUL CITY DEVELOPMENT (DEHSABZ-BARIKAB CITY DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY) THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON URGENT WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPLY FOR

KABUL METROPOLITAN AREA THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME 1: SUMMARY

MARCH 2013

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA)

CTI ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD. YACHIYO ENGINEERING CO., LTD. SANYU CONSULTANTS INC.

GE

JR

13-076

Currency Exchange Rate as of January 2012:

1.00 AFN = 1.552 JPY

1.00 AFN = 0.0202 USD

1.00 USD = 76.81 JPY

Location Map of the Study Area

Location Map of Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project Facilities

COMPOSITION OF THE REPORT

Volume 1: Summary

Volume 2: Main Report (1/2) Part 1: Common Context

Part 2: Feasibility Study on Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development

Appendices: Appendix A Test of Infiltration Gallery

Appendix B Preliminary Design of Contingency Plans for Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development

Appendix C Interview Survey on Awareness of Water Users

Appendix D Preliminary Study on Renewable Energies

Appendix E Draft EIA Report for Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development

Volume 3: Main Report (2/2) Part 3: Pre-Feasibility Study on Salang Dam

Part 4: Review of Feasibility Study on Gulbahar Dam

Volume 4: Summary in Dari

Annexes (CD) Part 2: Feasibility Study on Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development

ANNEX PART 2_1 COST BREAKDOWN OF INTAKE FACILITY

ANNEX PART 2_2.1 PUMP CALCULATION SHEET

ANNEX PART 2_2.2 DESIGN CALCULATION OF PUMP FACILITIES

ANNEX PART 2_2.3 SODIUM HYPOCHLORITE DOSAGE CALCULATTION

ANNEX PART 2_2.4 PUMP CALCULATION SHEET (ALONG BAGRAM ROAD)

ANNEX PART 2_2.5 DESIGN CALCULATION OF PUMP FACILITIES (ALONG BAGRAM ROAD)

ANNEX PART 2_2.6 PUMP CALCULATION SHEET (THREE-STEP DEVELOPMENT)

ANNEX PART 2_2.7 DESIGN CALCULATION OF PUMP FACILITIES (THREE-STEP DEVELOPMENT)

ANNEX PART 2_3.1 WAGE (OPERATION & MAINTENANCE COST)

ANNEX PART 2_3.2 COST OF ELECTRIC POWER (OPERATION & MAINTENANCE COST)

ANNEX PART 2_3.3 AMOUNT OF BILLED / DISTRIBUTED WATER (OPERATION & MAINTENANCE COST)

ANNEX PART 2_4 BASIC DATA OF HYDROGEOLOGICAL INVESTIGATION IN THE PANJSHIR FAN

ANNEX PART 2_5 DRAWINGS

ANNEX PART 2_6 COST ANALYSIS BREAK DOWN

Part 3: Pre-Feasibility Study on Salang Dam ANNEX PART 3_1 LITHOLOGY

ANNEX PART 3_2 LANDSLIDE

ANNEX PART 3_3 GEOLOGIC LOG AND DRILLHOLE CORE PHOTO

ANNEX PART 3_4 DATA OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL

ANNEX PART 3_5 LUGEON TEST RESULTS

ANNEX PART 3_6 LABORATORY TEST RESULTS

ANNEX PART 3_7 PHOTO OF DRILLING WORK

ANNEX PART 3_8 GEOLOGIC MAPS

ANNEX PART 3_9 GEOLOGIC PROFILES

Part 4: Review of Feasibility Study on Gulbahar Dam ANNEX PART 4_1 GEOLOGIC LOG AND DRILLHOLE CORE PHOTO

The Feasibility Study on Urgent Water Resources Development and Supply for

Kabul Metropolitan Area

Executive Summary

CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. and

Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd.

Sanyu Consultants Inc.

ES-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

<Change of Names of Panjshir Fan Aquifer and Gulbahar Dam>

It was agreed at the Steering Committee Meeting on October 7, 2012 that the names of Panjshir Fan Aquifer and Gulbahar Dam would be changed to Sayad Fan Aquifer and Panjshir Dam respectively to more precisely indicate their site locations. In this Final Report, however, the old names are still used.

1. Part 1: Common Context

1.1 Objectives of the Study

The objectives of the Study are:

1) To conduct the Feasibility Study on the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project;

2) To review the Feasibility Study on the Gulbahar Dam currently being prepared by the Afghan Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW);

3) To execute the Pre-feasibility Study on the Salang Dam;

4) To review the water resources development plan for the new city of Dehsabz based on the above items 1), 2) and 3); and

5) To perform technology transfer to the Afghanistan counterpart personnel in the course of the Study.

1.2 Revision of Water Demand and Water Resources Development Scenario

The water demand proposed by Master Plan for the Kabul Metropolitan Area (KMAMP) has been modified, taking into consideration the population projection proposed by Dehsabz-Barikab Development Authority (DCDA), modification of the master plan of the existing Kabul City and the unavailability of local water sources. The Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project is to be implemented in two phases. The Water Phase-1, of which completion is required as early as May 2016, needs 22.3 MCM/year of domestic and industrial water. The Water Phase-2 needs an additional of 30.5 MCM/year by the beginning of 2019. Moreover, the Gulbahar Dam or the Salang Dam is expected to develop 52.4 MCM/year by 2022 (Water Phase-3). The following table shows the development of the service population and the water demand.

Table-1 Development of Service Population and Water Demand

Service Area Purpose

2016 2019 2022 2025

Service Population

Water Demand (MCM/y)

Service Population


Service Population

Water Demand

(MCM/y)

Service Population


Kabul New City (KNC)

Domestic 610,000 19.8 950,000 39.6 1,500,000 82.2 1,500,000 82.2 Industrial - 2.5 - 5.0 - 14.0 - 14.0

Kabul City (17 District)

Domestic - - - 8.2 - 9.0 - 9.0

Total 22.3 52.8 105.2 105.2 Note: Water demand is supply volume.

1.3 Revision of Water Resources Development Plan for KABUL NEW CITY (KNC)

Based on the study results of Parts 2, 3 and 4, the Water Resources Development Scenario proposed by KMAMP has been reviewed. In conclusion, the same development priority order as KMAMP; namely, First: Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project; Second: Gulbahar Dam Project; and Third: Salang Dam Project, has been confirmed in due consideration of their economic, environmental and social aspects.

Executive Summary The Feasibility Study on Urgent Water Resources Development and Supply

for Kabul Metropolitan Area

ES-2 CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. and



The Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project is much superior to the two dam projects in economic, environmental and social aspects. The Gulbahar Dam which has a high potential as a multipurpose dam, has critical problems of quaternary faults and huge number of house relocations. Gravity conveyance of the Salang Dam is very attractive, but the huge construction costs of the dam and the long conveyance pipeline are discouraging. However, the priority order of the two dams could be reversed, depending upon the results of further survey on the two critical issues of the Gulbahar Dam.

1.4 Conclusion and Recommendation

1.4.1 Conclusion

JICA Water Team (JWT, the JICA Consultant Team for this Study) had conducted a feasibility study on the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project, a pre-feasibility study on the Salang Dam Project, and a review on the feasibility study on Gulbahar Dam Project conducted by an Iranian Consultant, and found that the Panjshir Project is economically feasible but grant funds and/or subsidies from international financial institutions and/or the central government are indispensable for its sustainability.

Regarding the Salang Dam, the economic viability as the total water supply system with the dam as the water source, including treatment, transmission and distribution systems additionally necessary for the Water Phase-3, is low because of its high investment cost.

As for the Gulbahar Dam, JWT has found two critical issues: the possibility of existence of quaternary faults and the huge number of house relocations.

1.4.2 Recommendation

JWT recommends that the Afghan side should set up a steering committee as shown in Figure 1 as soon as possible, to start the preparations for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project.

The Afghan side is also recommended to conduct a further survey on the quaternary faults and to revise the RAP, as well as to conduct a further detailed EIA study based upon international guidelines. JWT also recommends that the Afghan side should conduct a further survey on the active faults and to revise the RAP for the Gulbahar Dam.

The priority of the Salang Dam Project is the lowest among the three projects. However, it is still worth to be studied at the feasibility study level if the implementation of the Gulbahar Dam is found difficult.

An idea that the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Project is a temporary project of which the Phase-1 only should be implemented and be replaced by the Gulbhahar Dam has been raised among agencies concerned. In studying feasibility of this idea the Afghanistan Government should take it into consideration that international donors never provide any funds for facilities that will be abandoned in a short time.

2. Part 2: Feasibility Study on Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project

2.1 Water Intake Facility and Water Development Potential

As a result of hydrogeological investigation, numerical simulation and comparative studies on alternative intake facilities, JWT recommends the “Infiltration Gallery” as the intake facility, which is very economical and likely to be accepted by the local people. JWT has judged that the total maximum design discharge of 2.39 m3/s of Water Phase-1 and Phase-2, which corresponds to 52.8 MCM/year of the annual average supply volume, is available for the infiltration gallery that will be laid under the riverbed of Ghorband River.



Executive Summary




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2.2 Preliminary Design of Water Supply Facilities

A preliminary design of water supply facilities including intake facilities (infiltration gallery, collection pipes, intake pumps, and river bank and bed protection works), conveyance facilities (conveyance station, booster pump station, and conveyance pipeline), turbidity reduction facilities (slow filter treatment plant), and transmission facilities (transmission station, booster stations, transmission pipelines) and distribution facilities (reservoirs) has been conducted.

2.3 Cost Estimate

Based upon the preliminary design and a price survey on local and international companies for construction, material/equipment supply, initial investment costs have been estimated for the proposed facilities (from the intake to the reservoirs) of the two phases. In addition, costs for distribution mains and branch pipelines also have been roughly estimated to assess the total cost for the entire water supply system from the intake to the end users, as follows:

Table-2 Initial Investment Cost Unit: million US$

Facilities Phase-1 Phase-2 Total Remarks Intake to Reservoirs 174 163 337 Based upon preliminary design Distribution mains 55 28 83 Rough estimate

Distribution branches 273 143 416 Rough estimate; This cost is borne by developers.

Connection of service pipes 4 2 6 50US$ per connection is assumed. This cost is borne by developers or end-users.

Total 506 336 842

The annual operation and maintenance cost will increase from 12 million US$ in 2015 to 41 million US$ in 2025 as the service population increases and the water supply facilities develops. The unit cost per 1 m3/s of billed water (Revenue Water) is between 0.85 US$ (42Afs/m3) and 0.91 US$ (45Afs/m3).

2.4 Project Evaluation

2.4.1 Economic Evaluation

Economic Analysis has been conducted to confirm the economic viability of the Panjshir Aquifer Development Project in terms of EIRR (Economic Internal Rate of Return). The EIRRs for Phases 1 and 2 are greater than the opportunity cost of capital of 12%, and it is said that the Project is economically viable.

2.4.2 Financial Evaluation

Following the economic analysis, financial analysis has also been made. Due to high costs of the initial investment and operation and maintenance, it is very difficult to attain full cost recovery. It is so financially difficult that grant funds and/or subsidies from international financial institutions and/or the central government are indispensable for the sustainability of the project.

2.4.3 Technical Evaluation

Operation and maintenance of the infiltration gallery, the treatment plant and the big pumps are new or less experienced technologies for AUWSSC. It is recommended to outsource capacity development of AUWSSC staff, as well as the operation and maintenance, to contractors of these facilities or to international water service providers in a few years immediately after the completion of construction.






2.4.4 Environmental and Social Considerations

The EIA report was prepared using the hydro-geological study results and other information obtained in this study. Although it was judged that the water intake for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 would not cause significant impacts on the groundwater table, stepwise development with careful monitoring is proposed considering the unpredictable factors. At the same time, local people living in the water source area requested that they should be prioritized for the water supply rather than the new city. Considering their request, a monitoring plan for groundwater management is proposed, including three new test wells for the monitoring purpose to be dug in the area where enough water had not been supplied. It is proposed that the test wells shall be operated by the local people including maintenance because they will use them for their own purposes. Additionally, through local stakeholder meetings which were held three times mainly with the people in the water source area, participants requested benefits for locals instead of taking water to the new city although they almost agreed with the project. It is therefore necessary to consider some beneficial projects such as building social infrastructures and providing training programs in the next stage to meet the people’s requirements.

2.5 Implementation, Operation and Maintenance Plan

2.5.1 Organizational Set-up for Implementation

This project will be such a gigantic water resources development and supply project that Afghanistan has not ever implemented before. It should therefore be regarded as a national project that the Government should tackle by inputting its resources as much as possible.

Considering strength and weak points of related organizations, an organizational setup is proposed for the implementation of the Project, as shown in Figure-1.

Steering CommitteeDCDA (Chair), MoE, MoF, MEW, MUDA, Mom, MPW,

AUWSSC, NEPA, Kabul Municipality, Kabul Province,

Parwan Province, etc.

Project Office

Sub-Project

Office 1

(Intake)

Sub-Project

Office 2

(Conveyance pipelines)

Sub-Project

Office 3

(Conveyance Pump,

Booster stations)

Sub-Project

Office XX

(Disribution Mains)

Sub-Project

Office X

(Reservoirs)

Project Manager

(DCDA)

Technical

Coordination Division

Construction

Management DivisionFinancial Division

Administration

Division

Figure-1 Organizational Setup for Project Implementation

2.5.2 Operation and Maintenance Plan

AUWSSC is outstanding for almost all the work components from the intake to the distribution. This government and biggest WSP (Water Service Operator) in Afghanistan has experiences and high potentials to become the entity for the operation and maintenance of the Project, although further capacity development is indispensable. It is deemed that there is no substitute at present except for private WSPs



Executive Summary




ES-5

for the distribution system. Therefore, AUWSSC should be the entity to basically operate and maintain the total water supply system.

Water Rate

The water rate for KNC should be determined probably between 50 Afs/m3 and 85 Afs/m3, depending upon the availability of funds for initial investment and annual subsidy. AUWSSC is required to take necessary procedures for the special rate immediately after the Steering Committee determines the rate.

Ownership of Facilities

If all the construction cost is covered by grant funds, DCDA, the project owner, can transfer the facility ownership to AUWSSC, the O&M entity, free of charge as being done between MEW and AUWSSC for Andkhoy Town in Faryab Province. In case loans are made, DCDA shall transfer responsibility on the facilities to AUWSSC together with the loans, or DCDA shall keep ownership and rent the facilities to AUWSSC.

Risk of Delay of Settlement

It should be noted that the above-said financial analysis was based on an optimistic scenario that the settlement population in KNC would increase as planned. It was assumed that as many as 410,000 people are already there when the Phase-1 starts to operate in 2016. In reality, however, it is possible that the population would not increase as rapidly as planned. If not, the delay of settlement could affect very much the business of the water service provider because a certain part of the operation and maintenance cost have to be incurred from the beginning of the operation even if the number of consumers is very small. The longer delayed, the more the deficit is accumulated.

Reservation of Funds for the Start of Operation Stage

Even if the settlement population grows as planned, deficit is still likely to be generated especially at the start of operation, because water charge collection will be delayed for a few months after the commencement of operation. Therefore, a certain fund should be reserved as the running fund of the beginning stage.

Control of Well in KNC

A special ordinance, applied to KNC only, that would regulate the construction of wells should be created to prevent overexploitation of groundwater and not to damage the water service business in KNC.

3. Part 3: Pre-feasibility Study on Salang Dam Project

3.1 Consideration on Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station

At about 10 to 20km below the candidate sites for the Salang Dam, there is an historical run-of-the-river hydropower station, the Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station, which is the oldest in Afghanistan. It was constructed in 1919 and is now being rehabilitated by Parwan PRT. Hopefully, the rehabilitation will be completed within this year 2012. Therefore, the Salang Dam shall be examined as a multipurpose dam with water supply and hydropower generation purposes in combination with the Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station.






3.2 Geotechnical Investigation

Five candidate dam sites have been narrowed down into three sites, C, D and E, based on a preliminary comparison of water storage efficiency and the number of houses affected. For each of the three sites, a geotechnical investigation composed of core drilling, lugeon test and laboratory test was conducted between November and December 2011. As a result of the investigation, it was confirmed that all of the dam sites, C, D and E, are applicable as foundation of dam construction.

3.3 Preliminary Planning of Salang Dam

3.3.1 Selection of Optimum Site

The three dam sites, C, D and E, which passed the first screening in the Interim Report, are hardly different from each other in terms of dam geology and social impact. In conclusion, the uppermost dam site E, which has the highest water storage efficiency, was selected as the optimum site.

3.3.2 Design and Cost Estimate

Concrete gravity dam, zoned rockfill dam and facing rock-fill dam are conceived as dam types probable for the Salang Dam. These types are characterized with high dam height (more than 100m), medium-hard rock foundation and not narrow valley. Finally, the center core rock-fill dam is selected from technical and economic points of view.

The capacity of the dam reservoir depends upon how much water is released for the controversial Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station that is now being rehabilitated. Therefore, the preliminary design of the Salang Dam is made in three cases of water release discharges for the Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station, 8 m3/s (maximum discharge), 4 m3/s (half of maximum discharge), and 0 m3/s (suspension of operation), as shown below.

Table-2 Major Features of Salang Dam

Item Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Release Water for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station 8.0 m3/s 4.0 m3/s 0.0 m3/s

Water Security Level 10 year return period

10 year return period

10 year return period

Water Use Capacity 101 MCM 41 MCM 26 MCM Sediment Capacity 20 MCM 20 MCM 20 MCM Reservoir Storage Capacity 121 MCM 61 MCM 46 MCM Volume of Dam Body 15.9 MCM 8.13 MCM 7.00 MCM Normal Water Surface EL. 2115 m EL. 2085 m EL. 2075 m Dam Height 155 m 125 m 115 m Initial Investment Cost (million US$) 465 302 279 Annual O&M Cost (million US$) 1.0 0.66 0.62

3.4 Preliminary Planning of Water Conveyance

An option of 97-km long gravity conveyance along the western mountain side that requires less operation and maintenance cost is the most economical, and is recommended as the optimum plan. Its investment cost is estimated at 434 million US$. The annual operation and maintenance cost is as small as 0.126 million US$ because of its gravity conveyance capacity.



Executive Summary




ES-7

3.5 Cost Estimate

The initial investment cost of the total Water Phase-3 with the three cases of the Salang Dam has been estimated, as shown in Table-3.

Table-3 Project Cost (Initial Investment Cost) for Phase-3 with Salang Dam

Cost Item Financial Price (x 1,000 US$)

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Dam, Hydro-power Generation and Water Conveyance 924,158 757,324 729,081

Construction Cost (Direct Cost) 690,230 569,246 547,877 Dam Construction 337,530 220,814 204,763 Hydro-power Station 29,834 25,566 20,248 Electricity Transmission & Distribution Facility 5,994 5,994 5,994 Water Conveyance 316,872 316,872 316,872 Indirect Cost 233,928 188,078 181,204 Water Treatment, Transmission and Distribution 739,108 739,108 739,108 Treatment Plant incl. Transmission Pumps 186,176 186,176 186,176 Transmission incl. Booster & Reservoir 190,052 190,052 190,052 Distribution Mains 60,480 60,480 60,480 Distribution Branches 302,400 302,400 302,400 Grand Total 1,663,266 1,496,432 1,468,189

Note: Cost of “Water Treatment, Transmission and Distribution” is roughly estimated because these facilities are out of the scope of this Study.

The operation and maintenance (O&M) cost has also been roughly estimated for the three cases. In view of the gravity conveyance, the unit cost per 1m3 of revenue water is about 22 Afs/m3 for the three cases, about half of 42 to 45 Afs/m3 of Phases 1 and 2 with the development of Panjshir Fan Aquifer.


3.6.1 Economic Evaluation

An economic analysis has been conducted to examine the economic viability of a water supply system to be developed with the Salang Dam as the Phase-3 of the water resources development and supply for KNC. Since the Salang Dam is designed as a multipurpose dam, benefits generated from electric power generation by the dam and the Jabul Saraj Hydropower Plant, as well as water supply, have been taken into consideration.

EIRRs of all the cases with 50 Afs/m3 and 85 Afs/m3 of willingness/affordability to pay are in the ranges of 6.7 to 7.6% for 50 Afs/m3 and 8.0 to 9.1% for 85 Afs/m3, respectively, much lower than the opportunity cost of capital, 12%. The high construction cost of the high dam and the long conveyance pipeline, in particular, overwhelms the advantage of the low operation and maintenance cost by the gravity conveyance. In conclusion, the entire Water Phase-3 with the Salang Dam as the water source seems hardly economically feasible.

Regarding the three cases, the medium capacity case of 62 MCM that releases 4 m3/s of water to the hydropower plant is preferred from economic, social and environmental points of view.

3.6.2 Financial Evaluation

The financial analysis reveals that about 68% of the investment cost of 1,194 million US$ has to be covered by grant funds in the case of 50 Afs/m3 of water rate for sustainable operation, although it is not easy to raise this large amount.







The geological condition of the selected dam site is suitable for dam construction. Dam construction materials are available in and around the vicinity of the dam site. No fatal obstruction, e.g., large active fault, has been found during the prefeasibility study. However, further detailed geological survey is indispensable. Therefore, the dam type and details of the dam facilities shall be reconsidered and designed according to a detailed geological survey results.

MEW has basic technologies on the operation and maintenance of dams and their appurtenant facilities. However, it is recommended to improve their capacity for operation and maintenance in a few years before the completion of construction works to keep the dam in a good condition.

3.6.4 Initial Environmental Evaluation (IEE)

Environmental and social impacts are assessed on the IEE level. Based on population data obtained through interview survey, the affected population to be relocated for the created reservoir is estimated as one to three thousand (several hundred families) depending on the size of the reservoir. Through the three local stakeholder meetings during the study period, the affected local people almost agreed with the dam project, and based on their opinions in the said meetings, their agreement will depend on whether or not the government will provide proper compensation, ensure downstream water flow, and supply electricity to the local people. Therefore, the details for responding to their requests need to be discussed in the next study stage.

4. Part 4: Review of Feasibility Study on Gulbahar Dam

4.1 Review of Feasibility Study on Gulbahar Dam

4.1.1 Features of Gulbahar Dam

According to the Technical Report on the Feasibility Study by the Iranian Consultant, the Gulbahar Dam is proposed as a multipurpose dam with two alternative types, concrete arch gravity type and embankment (rock fill). Both types are evaluated to be feasible and the most economical normal water depth is estimated as 175m. Salient features of the Gulbahar Dam are as summarized below.

Table-4 Major Features of Gulbahar Storage Dam

Item Concrete Arch Gravity Embankment (Rock fill)

Purposes Domestic Water Supply: 100 MCM/y Irrigation Area: 53,700 ha (69,810 ha with double cropping) Hydropower Generation: 116,000 kW (748,000 MWh/y)

Dam Crest Elevation EL. 1770 m EL. 1770 m Dam Height 175 m 175 m Crest Width 5 m 10 m

Volume of Dam Body Approx. 1,800,000 m3 Approx. 26,200,000 m3

Rock: 20,300,000 m3, Core: 4,700,000 m3, Filter: 1,200,000 m3

Slope Gradient V:H = 1:0.4(Downstream) V:H = 1:2.5(Upstream) , V:H =1:3.0(Downstream)

Reservoir Features Surface Area:9.42 km2, Storage Capacity: 490,390,000 m3, Dead Volume: 85,210,000 m3 Reservoir Features

Direct Construction Cost 431million USD 512 million USD

EIRR Greater than 11.06% 11.06%



Executive Summary




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4.1.2 Review of Gulbahar Dam

JWT considers that there is still a high possibility of existence of faults in and around the proposed dam site and reservoir areas. JWT has updated the number of relocation houses to be about 2,000 with a 13,000 population. The Afghan side should therefore conduct a further survey on the quaternary faults and revise the RAP, as well as a further detailed EIA study based upon international guidelines such as the ones of JICA.

4.2 Preliminary Design on Water Conveyance


The 81-km long Charikar Road is proposed as the conveyance route from the Gulbahar Dam to the Paymonar Treatment Plant because the other option, the route along the Sayad and Barikab roads, has a longer length and also because of the difficulty of laying more pipelines under the roads.

Since the Paymonar area is about 170m higher than the dam site, a booster station is necessary to convey water to the treatment plant from the dam. The direct construction cost and the annual operation and maintenance cost are estimated at 422 million US$ and at 12 million US$ respectively.

4.2.2 Initial Environmental Evaluation

Environmental and social impacts are assessed on the IEE level for two options of water conveyance line. Since both options are to lay the pipelines under the existing roads, significant environmental impacts are not expected in both options.



Table of Contents

Summary




i

Feasibility Study on Urgent Water Resources Development and Supply for Kabul Metropolitan Area

Final Report

Summary

Table of Contents

Study Area Location Map

Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Facilities Location Map

Executive Summary 1.1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1.2 Objectives of the Study ...................................................................................................... 1-2 1.1.3 Study Schedule ................................................................................................................... 1-2 1.2.1 Responsibilities of Government Institutions ...................................................................... 1-3 1.2.2 New Organizations ............................................................................................................. 1-3 1.2.3 Water Right and Permit/License ......................................................................................... 1-4 1.3.1 General Description of KMAMP ....................................................................................... 1-4 1.3.2 Projection of Population and Water Demand ..................................................................... 1-5 1.3.3 Water Resources Development Plan ................................................................................... 1-5 1.3.4 Water Supply Plan .............................................................................................................. 1-7 1.5.1 Comparison of Three Water Resources Development Projects .......................................... 1-8 1.5.2 Prioritization of Three Projects ........................................................................................ 1-10 1.6.1 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 1-10 1.6.2 Recommendations ............................................................................................................ 1-11 1.6.3 Recommendations on Dam Projects ................................................................................. 1-12 2.1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1.2 General Description of the Project ..................................................................................... 2-1 2.2.1 Hydrogeological Investigation ........................................................................................... 2-2 2.2.2 Intake Facility and Turbidity Reduction Facility ................................................................ 2-2 2.2.3 Water Development Potential ............................................................................................. 2-3 2.3.1 Component of Water Supply Facilities ............................................................................... 2-6 2.3.2 Preliminary Design of Facilities ......................................................................................... 2-9 2.4.1 Organizational Structure for Implementation, Operation and Maintenance ..................... 2-12 2.4.2 Water Rate ........................................................................................................................ 2-14 2.4.3 Operation and Maintenance Plan ...................................................................................... 2-14 2.5.1 Investment Cost ................................................................................................................ 2-15 2.5.2 Operation and Maintenance Cost ..................................................................................... 2-16 2.6.1 Economic Analysis ........................................................................................................... 2-17 2.6.2 Financial Analysis ............................................................................................................ 2-18 2.6.3 Technical Evaluation ........................................................................................................ 2-19 2.7.1 Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures ............................................................ 2-19 2.7.2 Environmental Management Plan .................................................................................... 2-20 2.8.1 Project Cost ...................................................................................................................... 2-21 2.8.2 Implementation Schedule ................................................................................................. 2-22 2.8.3 Organizational Setup ........................................................................................................ 2-24 2.8.4 Preparation of Phase-1 ...................................................................................................... 2-26 3.1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................ 3-1 3.1.2 General Description of Project ........................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.1 Preliminary Selection and Screening of Alternative Dam Site ........................................... 3-1 3.2.2 Geology of Dam Site .......................................................................................................... 3-2

Table of Contents

Summary

The Feasibility Study on Urgent Water Resources Development and Supply


ii CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. and



3.2.3 Selection of Optimum Dam Site among Dam Site C, D and E .......................................... 3-3 3.2.4 Cases of Pre-Feasibility Study of the Salang Dam ............................................................. 3-3 3.2.5 Reservoir Water Capacity ................................................................................................... 3-4 3.2.6 Dam Type ............................................................................................................................ 3-5 3.2.7 Summary of Preliminary Planning of Salang Dam ............................................................ 3-5 3.2.8 Hydropower Generation ..................................................................................................... 3-7 3.2.9 Implementation Schedule of Dam Construction ................................................................. 3-8 3.2.10 Implementation Organization ............................................................................................. 3-8 3.3.1 Options of Routes ............................................................................................................... 3-8 3.3.2 Comparison of Options ....................................................................................................... 3-9 3.3.3 Small-Scale Hydraulic Power Plant .................................................................................. 3-10 3.3.4 Optimum Option ............................................................................................................... 3-10 4.2.1 Location of Gulbahar Dam ................................................................................................. 4-1 4.2.2 Features of Gulbahar Dam .................................................................................................. 4-1 4.2.3 Hydrology ........................................................................................................................... 4-2 4.2.4 Review of Dam Operation .................................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.5 Geologic Condition ............................................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.6 Dam Type ............................................................................................................................ 4-5 4.2.7 Review on Dam Structure of Gulbahar Dam ...................................................................... 4-6 4.2.8 Environmental and Social Considerations .......................................................................... 4-6 4.3.1 Route and Profile ................................................................................................................ 4-7 4.3.2 Conveyance Pipe and Valves .............................................................................................. 4-8 4.3.3 Preliminary Cost and O&M Estimate ................................................................................. 4-8 4.3.4 Initial Environmental Evaluation ........................................................................................ 4-8



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List of Tables

Table ‎1.2.1 Responsibilities of Government Institutions ........................................................... 1-3 Table ‎1.3.1 Projection of Water Demand for Kabul NEW CITY .............................................. 1-5 Table ‎1.4.1 Summary of Water Demand Plan (Average) ........................................................... 1-8 Table ‎1.5.1 Features of Three Water Resources Development Projects .................................... 1-9 Table ‎2.1.1 Phased Development of Panjshir Fan Aquifer Project ............................................ 2-1 Table ‎2.2.1 Conclusion of Hydrogeological Investigation ........................................................ 2-2 Table ‎2.2.2 Comparison of Intake Facilities .............................................................................. 2-2 Table ‎2.2.3 Selection of Turbidity Reduction Method ............................................................... 2-3 Table ‎2.3.1 Zoning for Water Supply Service ............................................................................ 2-6 Table ‎2.3.2 Main Specifications of Water Supply Facilities ...................................................... 2-9 Table ‎2.5.1 Initial Investment Cost of PH-1 ............................................................................ 2-15 Table ‎2.5.2 Initial Investment Cost of PH-2 ............................................................................ 2-16 Table ‎2.5.3 Initial Investment Cost for Entire Water Supply System ...................................... 2-16 Table ‎2.5.4 Summary of Operation and Maintenance Cost ..................................................... 2-17 Table ‎2.6.1 With- and Without-Project and Expected Benefits ............................................... 2-18 Table ‎2.6.2 Summary of Results of Economic Analysis .......................................................... 2-18 Table ‎2.6.3 Necessary Annual Subsidy by Water Rate and Grant Rate ................................... 2-18 Table ‎2.7.1 Summary of Impact Assessment ........................................................................... 2-20 Table ‎2.7.2 Observation Method and Frequency at Designated Points ................................... 2-21 Table ‎2.8.1 Proposed Implementation Schedule ...................................................................... 2-23 Table ‎2.8.2 Role of Three Organizations ................................................................................. 2-25 Table ‎3.2.1 Main Features of Dam Site C, D and E .................................................................. 3-3 Table ‎3.2.2 Hydropower Planning at the Salang Dam ............................................................... 3-7 Table ‎3.4.1 Project Cost (Initial Investment Cost) for Phase-3 with Salang Dam ................... 3-10 Table ‎3.4.2 Operation and Maintenance Cost for Phase-3 with Salang Dam .......................... 3-11 Table ‎3.5.1 Summary Results of Economic Analysis .............................................................. 3-11 Table ‎3.6.1 FIRR Improvement by Grant Input Rate .............................................................. 3-12 Table ‎4.2.1 Major Features of Gulbahar Storage Dam .............................................................. 4-2 Table ‎4.2.2 Main Purposes of Gulbahar Storage Dam ............................................................... 4-2

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List of Figures

Figure 1.1.1 Study Schedule .......................................................................................................... 1-2

Figure 1.3.1 Water Demand and Resources Development for KNC ............................................. 1-6

Figure 1.3.2 Recommended Water Resources Development for New City .................................. 1-6

Figure 1.4.1 Development Steps of Water Supply Capacity according to Demand ...................... 1-8

Figure 2.2.1 Water Flow near Infiltration Gallery ......................................................................... 2-3

Figure 2.2.2 Calculated Drawdown for Phase 2 – Severest Drought Year .................................... 2-4

Figure 2.3.1 Location of Water Supply Service Zones .................................................................. 2-7

Figure 2.3.2 Key Components of Water Supply Facilities ............................................................ 2-8

Figure 2.3.3 Site Altitudes of Key Facilities ............................................................................... 2-10

Figure 2.3.4 Location Plan of Pump Stations and Water Reservoirs ........................................... 2-11

Figure 2.3.5 Recommended Route of 20kV Lines ...................................................................... 2-12

Figure 2.8.1 Organizational Setup for Implementation ............................................................... 2-24

Figure 3.2.1 Location of Alternative Dam Sites ............................................................................ 3-2

Figure 3.2.2 Reservoir Capacity Allocation at Dam Site E ........................................................... 3-4

Figure 3.2.3 Typical Cross Section of Center Core Rockfill Dam ................................................ 3-5

Figure 3.2.4 Layout Plan of Dam and Appurtenant Structures (in case of “Case 2”) ................... 3-6

Figure 3.2.5 Plan of Dam Body and Reservoir Area at Dam Site E .............................................. 3-6

Figure 3.2.6 Concept of the Hydropower at the Salang Dam ........................................................ 3-7

Figure 3.2.7 Project Implementation Schedule for Salang Dam Construction .............................. 3-8

Figure 3.3.1 Water Conveyance Route from Salang Dam ............................................................. 3-9

Figure 3.3.2 Conceptual Longitudinal Profile of Conveyance Line from Salang Dam ................ 3-9

Figure 4.2.1 Location of the Proposed Gulbahar Dam .................................................................. 4-1

Figure 4.2.2 Daily Discharge Trend on Panjshir River (1980) ...................................................... 4-2

Figure 4.2.3 Long-Term Monthly Discharge (Observed Data) ..................................................... 4-2

Figure 4.2.4 Upstream View of “Gulbahar Dam Site E” ............................................................... 4-3

Figure 4.2.5 Proposed Dam Sites and Quaternary Fault around the Gulbahar Dam-Site ............. 4-4

Figure 4.2.6 Plan and Profile of Arch Gravity Dam for Gulbahar Dam ........................................ 4-5

Figure 4.2.7 Plan and Typical Cross Section of Embankment Dam for Gulbahar Dam ............... 4-6

Figure 4.3.1 Location of Water Conveyance Route from Gulbahar Dam ..................................... 4-7

Figure 4.3.2 Longitudinal Profile of Selected Water Conveyance Route from Gulbahar Dam..... 4-8

The Feasibility Study on Urgent Water Resources Development and

Supply for Kabul Metropolitan Area

Abbreviation, Glossary and Measurements

Summary




v

Abbreviations and Acronyms

ADB : Asian Development Bank AMA : Afghanistan Meteorological Authority ANDS : Afghanistan National Development Strategy AUWSSC : Afghanistan Urban Water Supply and Sewerage Corporation CAS : Central Asian Region CAWSS : Central Authority for Water Supply and Sewerage CDC : Community Development Council CSO : Central Statistics Office DCDA : Dehsabz-Barikab Development Authority DCIP : Ductile Cast-Iron Pipe DDA : District Development Assembly DEM : Digital Elevation Model DSS : Decision Support System EIA : Environmental Impact Assessment EIRP : Emergency Infrastructure Reconstruction Project EIRR : Economic Internal Rate of Return FAO : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FIRR : Financial Internal Rate Of Return F/C : Foreign Currency FRP : Fiber Reinforced Plastic GOA : Government of Afghanistan GTI : Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GTZ : Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit IA : Irrigation Association IBRD : International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IEE : Initial Environmental Examination IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JICA : Japan International Cooperation Agency JWT : JICA Water Team (The Study Team of this Study) KfW : Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau KMA : Kabul Metropolitan Area KMAMP : Master Plan for the Kabul Metropolitan Area KNC : Kabul New City LC : Local Council L/C : Local Currency MACCA : Mine Action Coordination Center of Afghanistan MAIL : Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock MBTA : Ministry of Border and Tribal Affairs MEW : Ministry of Energy and Water MoF : Ministry of Finance MoH : Ministry of Health MoM : Ministry of Mines MPW : Ministry of Public Welfare MUDA : Ministry of Urban Development Affairs MRRD : Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development NEPA : National Environmental Protection Agency NGO : Non-Governmental organization NOAA : National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration NPV : Net Present Value PET : Potential Evapotranspiration PH : Phase PRT : Provincial Reconstruction Team RAP : Resettlement Action Plan RBA : River Basin Agency RBC : River Basin Council SC : Steering Committee SCoW : Supreme Council on Water SRBA : Sub-River Basin Agency SRBC : Sub-River Basin Council TWG : Technical Working Group USAID : United States Agency for International Development USGS : United States Geological Survey WB : The World Bank WMO : World Meteorological Organization WUA : Water Users Association

Abbreviation, Glossary and Measurements

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vi CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. and



Glossary

Shura : Village governing body (its members are elected by vote) Sharia : Islamic doctrine on human behaves and activities Malik : Village chief (an elder person leading the village) Mirab : Water master (a person entrusted to oversee the irrigation network, and distribute the water to farmlands based

on respective water rights

Measurement Units (Length) (Time) mm : millimeter(s) s, sec : second(s) cm : centimeter(s) min : minute(s) m : meter(s) h, hr : hour(s) km : kilometer(s) d, dy : day(s) y, yr : year(s) (Area) mm2 : square millimeter(s) (Volume) cm2 : square centimeter(s) cm3 : cubic centimeter(s) m2 : square meter(s) m3 : cubic meter(s) km2 : square kilometer(s) l, ltr : liter(s) ha : hectare(s) MCM : million cubic meter(s) (Weight) (Speed/Velocity) g, gr : gram(s) cm/s : centimeter per second kg : kilogram(s) m/s : meter per second ton : ton(s) km/h : kilometer per hour

(Electricity) (Others) kW : kilo watt(s) LCD, lcd : liter per capita per day kWh : kilo watt hour (s) MW : megawatt(s) MWh : megawatt hour(s)



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CHAPTER 1 COMMON TEXT

<Change of Names of Panjshir Fan Aquifer and Gulbahar Dam>

It was agreed at the Steering Committee Meeting on October 7, 2012 that the names of Panjshir Fan Aquifer and Gulbahar Dam would be changed to Sayad Fan Aquifer and Panjshir Dam respectively to more precisely indicate their site locations. In this Final Report, however, the old names are still used.

1.1 Introduction

1.1.1 Background

Kabul is the capital city of the Islamic Republic Afghanistan and it has been experiencing rapid population growth with annual rate of 4.0 % and over since 1990, which is mainly due to the inflow of people from rural areas and refugees from neighboring countries. However, the improvement of infrastructures in Kabul is quite incomplete to cope with such a rapid population growth, and, consequently, the city if facing a number of challenges such as shortage of housing and fresh water supply, deterioration of public hygiene, heavy traffic jams and urban sprawl. In order to tackle such challenges, urban development in an orderly and efficient manner is urgently required.

The Government of Afghanistan had planned to construct a new city at Dehsabz area north of Kabul in order to resolve such challenges, and requested the Government of Japan to prepare the master plan for the development of Kabul metropolitan area in 2006. In response to the request, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) conducted a development study entitled as “The Study for the Development of the Master Plan for the Kabul Metropolitan Area in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan” to prepare the Master Plan for Kabul New City Development. A part of the master plan referring to the new city development was subsequently approved by the Government of Afghanistan in March 2009.

It is fundamental and a significant challenge to secure the domestic and industrial water supply to the new city in order to materialize the development of Kabul metropolitan area. The master plan covered the water resources development plan to secure the water supply to the Kabul metropolitan area, in which groundwater in the Panjshir fan aquifer at the eastern part of Charikar (hereinafter referred to as “Panjshir Fan”) was proposed to be pumped to the new city (Dehsabz new city) through a pipeline. The Government of Afghanistan which perceived that the water resource development at Panjshir Fan was urgently required for the development of the Kabul new city, requested JICA to implement a feasibility study on this scheme.

In January 2010, JICA dispatched a preparatory study team to Afghanistan to collect fundamental information for forming the above feasibility study. During their stay in Afghanistan, it was suggested by the Afghan side that feasibility of the Gulbahar Dam and the Salang Dam as medium-term or long-term water sources be also examined as well as the Panjshir Fan aquifer in order to establish the most optimal water resource development plan for the new city.

Taking the suggestion into consideration, JICA dispatched another preparatory study team in June 2010 to Afghanistan to discuss the Scope of Work for the feasibility study that includes the two dams. Through a series of discussions, the Scope of the Work entitled as the “Feasibility Study on Urgent Water Resources Development and Supply for Kabul Metropolitan Area” (hereinafter referred to as “the Study”) was concluded in June 17 between DCDA and the JICA preparatory study team.

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1-2 CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. and



Finally, JICA selected a joint-venture group consisting of CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd., Yachiyo Engineering Co., Ltd. and Sanyu Consultants Inc., which formed the JICA Water Team (JWT) to commence the Study in the middle of October 2012.

JWT had prepared and submitted to the Afghan side five reports since the commencement of the Study; namely, the Inception Report in October 2010, the Progress Report 1 in March 2011, the Interim Report in January 2012, the Progress Report 2 in March 2012 and the Progress Report 3 in July 2012. This Final Report includes all study results obtained in the course of the Study.

1.1.2 Objectives of the Study

Objectives of the Study are:

1) To conduct the feasibility study on the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project;

2) To review the feasibility study on the Gulbahar Dam Projectcurrently being conducted by the Afghan Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW);

3) To execute the pre-feasibility study on the Salang Dam Project;

4) To review the water resources development plan for the Dehsabz new city based on the above items 1), 2) and 3); and

5) To perform technology transfer to the Afghanistan counterpart personnel in the course of the Study.

1.1.3 Study Schedule

The tentative study schedule is shown in Figure 1.1.1

The duration of the Study is about 2.5 years from October 2010 to March 2003.

Study Item 2010 2011 2012 2013 12 3 6 9 12 3 6 9 12 3

1. Basic Study

2. Feasibility Study of Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development

3. Review of the Feasibility Study on Gulbahar Dam

4. Pre-Feasibility Study on Salang Dam

5. Revision of Water Resources Development Plan for the Dehsabz New City

6. Reporting *

IC

*

PR1

*

IT

*

YP2

*

PR3

*

DF

*

FR

IC: Inception Report, PR1: Progress Report 1, IT: Interim Report, PR2: Progress Report 2, PR3: Progress Report 3, DF: Draft Final Report, FR: Final Report

Figure 1.1.1 Study Schedule

1.2 Water Law

The Water Law was published in the Ministry of Justice Official Gazette No. 980 on 26 April 2009 for the purposes of conservation, equitable distribution, and efficient and sustainable use of water resources, to strengthen the national economy and secure the rights of the water users, in accordance with the Islamic jurisprudence and the praiseworthy customs and traditions of the people. This law requires Integrated



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Water Resources Management (IRBM) and development for the purpose of sustaining supply and conserving water resources and protecting the environment.

Regulations and new organizations to be required by the law have not been established yet. Therefore, it is deemed that it takes some more years to actually implement and enforce the Water Law.

1.2.1 Responsibilities of Government Institutions

With respect to the management and development of water resources, the Water Law stipulates responsibilities of government institutions as follows:

Table 1.2.1 Responsibilities of Government Institutions Institution Contents

MEW

Planning, management and development of water resources in cooperation with other relevant line ministries and institutions.

Determination of Rights-of-way (ROW) for water resources in light of the principles of Islamic jurisprudence in cooperation with MAIL, MoM, MRRD and related departments.

Management and planning for the trans-boundary waters between Afghanistan and its neighboring countries and changes of watercourses with agreements from the MFA, MoI and MBTA.

MoM Planning for and implementing activities to survey, explore, investigate, research and assess the groundwater

reserves and their protection from pollution including identification of chemical and bacteriological contents of the groundwater.

MUDA Provision of a water supply for drinking and livelihood, including construction of water treatment plants,

water conveyance facilities, sewerage systems and sewage treatment plants in accordance with accepted standards in urban settings in cooperation with MEW, MoM, MPH, MAIL, and NEPA.

NEPA Protection and control of surface water from pollution and monitoring of its quality in cooperation with MAIL, MEW, MUDA, MRRD, MPH and MoM.

MAIL Determination of irrigation norms in different river basins, irrigation drainage systems and other related research for water use for agriculture and irrigation in cooperation with MEW, MTA, MPH and NEPA.

MRRD

Provision of drinking water supplies and sewage treatment systems in the villages by governmental and non-governmental organizations and construction of small water infrastructures for various uses in villages according to the accepted health standard practices in the country in cooperation with MEW, MPH, MoM, MAIL, MUDA and NEPA.

1.2.2 New Organizations

The Water Law requires the establishment of the following organizations:

(1) Supreme Council of Water Affairs Management

The Supreme Council on Water (SCoW) was established for better coordination and provision of facilities in the implementation of water affairs programs, development and operation of water resources programs. The Vice-President chairs the council consisting of high-ranking officials from related ministries and institutions. Its technical secretariat chaired by MEW consisting of practical members from MEW, MAIL, MoM, MRRD, MoH, MUDA, MoE, NEPA, Kabul Municipality and AUWSSC meets every week.

(2) River Basin Council, River Basin Agency, Sub-River Basin Council and Sub-River Basin Agency

In accordance with the IWRM concept, the Water Law aims at introducing decentralized and river basin based management of water resources. The whole territory of Afghanistan is divided into five river basins, each of which is further divided into several sub-river basins. For every river basin a River Basin Council (RBC) and a River Basin Agency (RBA), for every sub-river basin a Sub-River Basin Council (SRBC) and a Sub-River Basin Agency (SRBA) will be established.

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RBC and SRBC will be organized by representatives from water users, related government organizations and other stakeholders, but RBA and SRBA are government agencies under MEW. While RBC and SRBC have a role of decision-making on water resources management including policies making, allocation of water resources, etc., RBA and SRBA are execution agencies to implement things decided by RBC and/or SRBC in principle. According to MEW, RBAs are now in the process of formation.

The entire Study Area covering the Panjshir Fan, the catchment areas of the Gulbahar Dam and Salang Dam and KNC area falls in the Ghorband and Panjshir Sub-River Basin of the Kabul River Basin.

(3) Water User Association

Water User Association is a voluntary assembly of real and legal persons to be formed according to the provisions of this law with the objectives of meeting social, economic and vocational use of water. MAIL may delegate the responsibility for the distribution of water within irrigation networks in a designated area to registered Irrigation Associations. These associations will be members of RBC and will participate in decision-making processes. However, they have not been established yet.

1.2.3 Water Right and Permit/License

The Water Law introduced water activity permits and water usage licenses. The activity permit is an officially written document issued to undertake construction activities related to storage and other associated uses, and the usage license is an officially written document issued for usage of water resources.

The procedures for the issuance of the permits and the licenses have not been established yet. Although it is written that MEW issues the water usage license in accordance with the provisions of the Water Law, it is guessed that RBC will be involved in the decision of issuance of the license considering the IWRM concept of the Law.

1.3 Master Plan for Kabul New City Development

1.3.1 General Description of KMAMP

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) conducted a study for urban development of Kabulto prepare a master plan for urban development of the Kabul Metropolitan Area (hereinafter referred to as Kabul Metropolitan Area Master Plan (KMAMP)) from March 2008 through July 2009. In October 2009 a part of KMAMP referring to the new city development was acknowledged by the Cabinet meeting. Subsequently the preparation for the implementation of the master plan is now in the process toward the commencement of construction as early as next year.

The Kabul New City (KNC) with a total gross area of 722 km2 will be developed in Dehsabz, Paymonar and Barikab areas north of the existing Kabul City. According to the KMAMP, the population of the new city will increase from the current population of 100,000 to approximately 1.5 million in 2025, the target year of the master plan, up to when the total population of Kabul city and the new city is projected to be approximately 6.5 million.

The development of KNC is a viable response to many challenges that the existing Kabul city is facing today. KNC has been planned to overcome many of existing and upcoming urban problems such as rapidly increasing population, proliferating informal housing areas, unemployment in urban areas, lack of proper infrastructure, water shortages and mismanagement of urban land development and use on the one side, and to play an important role in keeping stable and self-reliant economic growth on the other side.



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1.3.2 Projection of Population and Water Demand

A water resources development and water supply plan for the Kabul Metropolitan Area has been proposed in KMAMP. The outline of the master plan is summarized here focusing on the new city area that is the target area of this study.

Population of Kabul Metropolitan Area (KMA) is projected to be 6.74 million by 2025 with 1.5 million in the new city. All households in the new city will be equipped with piped water connection, and design daily average consumption of 120 LCD will be provided through this system. Water demand of the new city by 2025 is projected to be 96.1MCM/year including industrial water use as shown in Table 1.3.1.

Table 1.3.1 Projection of Water Demand for Kabul NEW CITY

Item

2015 2020 2025

Pop. (mil.)

Unit water supply (LCD)

Unit water consumption (LCD)

Demand (MCM/y)

Pop. (mil.)



Demand (MCM/y)

Pop. (mil.)



Demand (MCM/y)

Zone 2: Kabul New City

Total 0.48 －－ 9.8 0.99 － 42.7 1.50 －－ 96.1

Piped water

House connection 0.15

125 105

6.8 0.55 138 115

37.7 1.50 150 120

82.1 Public tap 0.00 － 0.44 63 50 0.00 －－ Shallow well 0.33 25 25 3.0 －－ 0.00 －－

Industrial water －－－ 0.0 －－－ 5.0 －－－ 14.0 Source: JICA Master Plan Study, 2009

1.3.3 Water Resources Development Plan

KNC is a desert area where scarce water is available. Its local groundwater is not enough for socio-economic activities expected in the new urban area. Therefore, KNC will have to depend upon external water resources for its urban water.

Potentials of several candidate water sources in and around KMA proposed in previous studies were examined through a water balance simulation in the JICA master plan study. In conclusion, four sources, the Panjshir Fan Aquifer (subsurface water and/or groundwater), the Panjshir River (river water), and two dam storages, the Gulbahar Dam and the Salang Dam, were considered as potential water sources for urban water supply for KNC. Regarding the two water sources in the fan area, the Panjshir Fan Aquifer that takes subsurface and/or groundwater is preferred to the direct water taken from the Panjshir River because of less treatment cost. Since dam projects generally take a longer time for implementation mainly due to resettlement issues and the total cost for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development is far less than those of the dam projects, the fan development project was considered to be more suitable for early implementation than the dam storage options. The Shah-Wa-Arus Dam, which is now being constructed by MEW on a tributary of the Barikab River, was planned to provide domestic water to District 17 of Kabul City.

The JICA master plan study also proposed a stepwise water resources development plan that meets the increasing water demand for KNC as shown in Figure 1.3.1

The external water sources will be developed in the order of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer, and then the Gulbahar Dam or the Salang Dam. In addition to the external water sources, groundwater of the Shomali area (refer to the Study Area Location Map in the opening page) that will be exclusively provided to an ongoing urban development project called “26th Dalwa Project” and locally available groundwater is also expected to be developed earlier than the external water sources, although the local groundwater is a tentative water source that should be gradually replaced by the Panjshir Fan Aquifer water because of its limited water resources.

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Therefore, the total water demand in 2025 of 96.1MCM/y will be shared by the Shomali groundwater, the Panjshir Fan Aquifer, and one of the dam reservoirs. The Shomali groundwater is expected to provide 6.8MCM/y, and the rest of 89.3MCM/y will be shared evenly by the Panjshir Fan Aquifer (44.6MCM/y) and the dam reservoir (44.7 MCM). In order to monitor impacts of the aquifer development to surrounding hydrological environments, the Panjshir Fan Aquifer was proposed to be developed in two phases. Accordingly the water development volume of each phase is 22.3MCM/y, and the commissioning year of each phase was set so as to cover the increasing water demand as shown in Figure 1.3.1; namely, 2016 for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Phase-1 (Water Phase-1), 2019 for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Phase-2 (Water Phase-2) and 2022 for the Gulbahar/Salang Dam (Water Phase-3) respectively.

(1) Until 2016

Groundwater around the Shomali area that was under investigation by the 26-Dalwa Project could be used in addition to minimum amount of local groundwater that could be used tentatively before the external water is available in 2016.

(2) Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Phase-1: 2016-2018 (Water Phase-1)

In addition to groundwater resources for the initial development, the New City is expected to have the first phase of Panjshir Aquifer (22.3 MCM) be completed by the beginning 2016.

(3) Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Phase-2: 2019-2021 (Water Phase-2)

The entire new city area should be covered by the piped water supply system by the beginning of 2019 in order to conserve local groundwater. Additional water by the Panjshir fan aquifer development Phase-2 with 22.3MCM/year will be secured for this stage of settlement in addition to the Phase-1 water and existing groundwater resources. Though operation and maintenance cost would be higher than other alternatives, the Panjshir fan aquifer development seems to be the most practical alternative to meet water demand of 2021, since dam construction process is likely to take more than a decade. Water from Panjshir fan aquifer will be received in Dehsabz North, and water distribution system should be constructed to serve the new city area.

(4) Long Term: 2022-2025 (Water Phase-3)

Domestic water demand of 82.1MCM/year and industrial water demand of 14MCM/year

0102030405060708090

100110120

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Dem

and

and

Supp

ly (M

CM

)

Year

Demand and Supply for Domestic and Industrial WaterZone 2: New city

96.1: Gulbahar dam (44.7)

51.4: Panjshir fan aquifer (22.3), LGW(-1.5)

9.8:LGW(3.0),Shomali_GW(6.8)

30.6: Panjshir fan aquifer (22.3), LGW(-1.5)

*LGW: Local groundwater

Source: JICA Master Plan Study, 2009

Figure 1.3.1 Water Demand and Resources Development for KNC

44.6MCM/yFrom Panjshir fan aquifer

44.7MCM/yAlt-1: Gulbahar damAlt-2: Salang damAlt-3: Panjshir fan aquifer

Dehsabz North

Paymonar

For 26 Dalwa Porject6.8MCM/yFrom groundwater in Shomali area

Source: JICA Master Plan Study, 2009

Figure 1.3.2 Recommended Water Resources Development for New City



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will be secured by 2025 with a new storage dam, the Gulbahar Dam or the Salang Dam, in addition to the above-mentioned water sources. The water from the dam is planned to be conveyed to Paymonar for distribution to the new city after treatment.

The master plan study also noted that water demand is highly dependent on population growth of the new city, and water resources development plan should be carefully reviewed and revised based on updated population projection. In this Study the above water demand projection and development scenario proposed in KMAMP is reviewed and updated as described in Section 1.4.

1.3.4 Water Supply Plan

In parallel with the abovesaid water resources development, water supply system also will be developed. The first water supply development is the system for 26-Dalwa. The groundwater should be supplied after chlorination at a reservoir. This system should be completed by 2015.

The second one should be along the Bagram Road from the Barikab sub-zone to the Dehsabz South S sub-zone. Sub-surface and groundwater of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer (Phase-1) should be conveyed to the new city. Since no water treatment is supposed to be required, a water transmission station should be constructed to receive the water and to transmit it to different directions in the new city. Commencement of operation should be scheduled for 2016.

The western side of Dehsabz located far from the Bagram Road, i.e. Dehsabz North W and Paymonar, should be developed at a later stage. In 2020, the whole area should be covered by piped water supply, and then house connections should be accelerated. The sub-surface water will cover the whole new city as a transitional system. This development is categorized as the third development. This third development includes the Panjshir fan aquifer development Phase-2 and extension of water transmission station.

In 2025, house connections should cover the whole area. To achieve the target, the water transmission network should be expanded as well as the development of new water resources, i.e., surface water of the Gulbahar Dam/Salang Dam. Finally, both the sub-surface and surface water will be supplied to serve the new city. This development is categorized as the fourth development. This fourth development includes the construction of a water treatment plant.

Coverage by house connections should be gradually extended to reach 100% by 2025. While the unit water supply by public taps should be maintained at 62.5LCD (including 20% loss), it should be gradually increased from 125LCD to 150LCD (including 20% loss) for house connections.

1.4 Review of Water Demand Projection

As described in Subsection 1.3.2, the water demand for KNC and development scenario was once proposed in 2009 under KMAMP. Since then, the development scenario related to water resources development has been changed a little. For example, DCDA developed a more detail development schedule of the new city. The water resources for 26-Dalwa area of 6.8 MCM/y is not promising at all, and it was found that a plan to provide water from the Shah-Wa-Arus Dam to District 17 of Kabul City was cancelled. The Panjshir Aquifer Fan became required to provide water to the two areas additionally. Then, the water demand proposed in KMAMP are adjusted and modified in accordance with these changes, as shown in Table 1.4.1 and Figure 1.4.1.

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Table 1.4.1 Summary of Water Demand Plan (Average)

Target City Item Allocation to Domestic Customers (MCM/y) 2016 2019 2022 2025

New City Domestic & Miscellaneous Water 19.8 39.6 82.2 82.2 Industrial Water 2.5 5.0 14.0 14.0 Kabul City (District 17) Domestic & Miscellaneous Water 8.2 9.0 9.0

Total 22.3 52.8 105.2 105.2 Source: JICA Water Team

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

year

Ave

rage

dem

and

& s

upp

ly (

MC

M/y)

22.3MCM Water PH-1Panjishir fan�

30.5MCM Water PH-2Panjishir fan (total 52.8MCM)

52.4MCM Water PH-3Gulbahar/Salang (total 105.2MCM)

Remark: Water demand is assumed to be increased gradually. Source: JICA Water Team

Figure 1.4.1 Development Steps of Water Supply Capacity according to Demand

1.5 Review of Water Resources Development Scenario

1.5.1 Comparison of Three Water Resources Development Projects

As described in Subsection 1.3.3, KMAMP proposed three water resources development projects for KNC; namely, the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development, the Salang Dam and the Gulbahar Dam. In the preceding section the water demand for the three projects were revised, and then in the following chapters these projects were examined, by using the revised water demands, from technical, economic/financial and/or environmental and social points of view, although the study levels are very different by project. The water resources development scenario by KMAMP is reviewed and updated with feedback of the study results, as follows:

Based on the study results in Chapters 2, 3 and 4, the three projects are compared as presented in Table 1.5.1. As an indicator of economic and financial aspect, the unit-costs of the three projects necessary only to develop the water resources (water intake) and to convey it to the transmission station/the treatment station are presented in this table. Regarding the full multi-purpose dam, the Gulbahar Dam, its cost in the table is the one related to water supply that was estimated through simple cost allocation based upon release water volume by purpose.



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1-9

Table 1.5.1 Features of Three Water Resources Development Projects

Category Item Panjshir Fan Aquifer

Development (Phases 1+2)

Salang Dam Gulbahar Dam

Technical Aspect

Water Supply Volume (MCM/y) 52.8 52.4 100

(52.4<1) Distance of Conveyance (km) 39 97 81

Type of Intake Infiltration Gallery Dam Reservoir Multipurpose Dam Reservoir

Type of Conveyance Pump Conveyance Gravity Pump Conveyance Period of Construction 3 years 5 years 5 years<3

Water Quality Low Turbidity High Turbidity, Possibility of Eutrophication

High Turbidity, Possibility of Eutrophication

Critical Issue Nothing specific Nothing specific Possibility of existence of quaternary faults

Economic and Financial Aspect

Investment Cost (million US$) Intake: 24

Conveyance: 117 Total: 141

Intake: 302 Conveyance: 424 Total: 726

Intake: 28 Conveyance: 448 Total: 476

Annual O&M Cost (million US$)

Annual O&M: 22.1 Renewal: 29.0



Unit Cost (US$/m3) 0.48 0.93 0.75

EIRR (%) 19.6% (Water PH-1&2 for KNC)

7.6% (Case-2,Water PH-3)

More than 11%<2 (Multipurpose Dam)

Environment and Social Considerations

Number of Families to be relocated 0 About 200 About 2,000

Anticipated Major Negative Impacts None

Impacts rated “A” Involuntary Resettlement Local economy Land use and utilization of

local resources Social institution Existing social

infrastructures and services

Misdistribution of benefit and damage

EIA is insufficient. Negative Impacts assessed

by Iranian Study Physical Environment

(soil quality, soil fertility, soil erosion, soil organic content, hydrologic regime)

Social Environment (Communication and transportation, land ownership and tenancy, population and settlement, community impact)

Priority 1 3 2 <1: The water supply volume proposed in the Iranian study is 100MCM/y. However, costs in this table were adjusted to those for 52.4 MCM to

match with the Salang dam. <2: This EIRR was estimated for only the multipurpose dam with three purposes, irrigation, hydropower and domestic water supply. Neither

water conveyance nor transmission/distribution was included. <3: Although the Iranian Study proposes 3 years of construction period, JWT considers that it takes at least 5 years to complete the 175m-high

Gulbahar Dam.

The Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project is superior to the dam projects in many aspects such as less cost, environmental and social soundness. It is deemed that these advantages theoretically make possible commencement of the project implementation as early as 2013 if necessary fund is ensured. The only concern is high energy cost for pumps that raises the water rate for users. Nevertheless, this project is the most economical in terms of unit cost and EIRR, and it is reasonable to prioritize this project.

High investment cost for both of the dam and the conveyance is the problem of the Salang Dam that made very low cost-effectiveness (high unit cost of 0.93US$/m3 and low EIRR of 7.6%). The low annual operation and maintenance cost due to its gravity conveyance is very attractive, but the huge investment cost is overwhelming and is a critically negative factor of the Project. The number of house relocation of some 200 is also another negative factor.

Regarding the Gulbahar Dam, it is difficult to evaluate the viability of the dam project at present, when only the Iranian study is available. There are two critical issues, the possibility of existence of quaternary faults and the huge number of relocation houses. The Iranian environmental and social studies are basically insufficient for requirements of world standards such as the JICA Guidelines. JWT reviewed the

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Iranian report carefully, and concluded that it is impossible to deny the possibility of the existence of quaternary faults in and around the dam axis and the reservoir area. If existing, the project might be totally undermined. The 2,000 house relocation is also so important that donors could shrink from investing.

As for the economical aspect, the unit cost of the Gulbahar Dam Project is 0.75 US$/m3, significantly lower than that of the Salang Dam. The Gulbahar Dam is a real multipurpose dam with three purposes of irrigation, hydropower generation and water supply. According to the Iranian Study, the Gulbahar Dam is supposed to irrigate 69,810ha (with double cropping) and to generate 748GWh/y in addition to 100MCM/y of domestic water supply. The Iranian consultant roughly estimated its EIRR at more than 11%, considering the three benefits. The benefit from the water supply of 100 MCM/y occupies only 9% of the total benefit. It can be said that the Gulbahar Dam is important for the national economy of Afghanistan rather than Kabul New City. However, it is needless to say that the above-said critical issues should be settled first.

1.5.2 Prioritization of Three Projects

Based on the above discussions, JWT proposes to set the priority order for the water resources development for the new city, taking into consideration their economic aspects in particular, as follows:

First Priority: Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development

Second Priority: Gulbahar Dam Project

Third Priority: Salang Dam

However, the Gulbahar Dam Project is tentatively put prior to the Salang Dam because of its critical issues, the active faults and the huge house relocation number. Depending upon further study, the order might be reversed.

The water resources development scenario is not changed and remains the same as KMAMP.

1.6 Conclusion and Recommendations

1.6.1 Conclusion

1) JWT conducted a feasibility study on the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project. JWT proposed infiltration gallery as the intake facility and slow sand filtration as the treatment method. A preliminary design was also conducted for the intake, conveyance, turbidity reduction facility and transmission facilities. The total investment cost including those for the distribution systems (mains and branch pipeline networks) was estimated at 506 million US$ for Phase-1 and additional 336 million US$ for Phase-2. The annual operation and maintenance cost will increase from 12 million US$ in 2015 to 41 million US$ in 2025 as the service population increases and the water supply facilities develops. The unit cost per 1 m3/s of billed water (Revenue Water) is between 0.85 US$ (42Afs/m3) and 0.91 US$ (45Afs/m3).

2) The project is economically feasible with EIRR of 19.6% for both Phase 1 and Phase-2, but grant funds and subsidies from international financial institutions and/or the central government are indispensable for the sustainability of the project as described in Subsection 7.2.3 of Part 2. It can be concluded that the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project requires no house relocation and therefore more environmentally and socially sound than the two dam projects, while the high investment, operation and maintenance costs are still a big issue.

3) JWT conducted a pre-feasibility study on the Salang Dam Project. Based on results of a geotechnical investigation and social studies, the dam was proposed on the uppermost candidate site, some 20 km away from Jabul Saraj settlement. The Salang Dam was preliminarily designed as a center-core rockfill dam with a subordinate hydropower plant. Three cases of reservoir capacities



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1-11

were examined in relation to the Jabal Saraj hydropower plant, and the medium capacity case of 62 MCM that releases 4 m3/s of water to the hydropower plant was preferred from economic and social and environmental points of view. The total investment cost for Phase-3 with the Salang Dam including water conveyance, treatment and distribution mains and branches and service pipes is estimated at 1,496 million USD, and the annual operation and maintenance cost is estimated at 19 million US$ (corresponding to 25 Afs/m3). However, the economic viability as the entire water supply system including treatment, transmission and distribution systems additionally necessary for the Water Phase-3 is very low with EIRR of 7.6% because of its high investment cost (757 million US$) of the dam and the conveyance pipeline. In addition, the financial analysis disclosed that this project also requires grant funds and/or annual subsidy for sustainable operation.

4) JWT reviewed the feasibility study report of the Gulbahar Dam by the Iranian Consultant and found that there is still a high possibility of existence of active faults in and around the proposed dam site and reservoir areas. JWT also updated the number of relocation houses to be about 2,000 with 13,000 populations. As a result of the review, JWT recommends that the Afghan side should conduct a quaternary fault survey and analysis of fault movement, and revise and finalize the RAP (Resettlement Action Plan) as well as a further detail EIA study based on international guidelines such as the ones of JICA. In addition, JWT preliminarily designed the conveyance pipeline from the dam to the Paymonar treatment plant. The 81km-long conveyance pipeline with a booster pump along the Charikar Road was proposed with direct construction cost of 317 million US$ and annual operation and maintenance cost of 12 million US$.

1.6.2 Recommendations

(1) Measures to be taken by the Afghan Side for the Implementation of Phase-1

The Afghan side is required to take the following actions towards the implementation of the Phase-1 project:

1) This project will be such a gigantic water resources development and supply project that Afghanistan has not ever implemented before. This project should be regarded as a national project that the Government should tackle by inputting its resources as much as possible. Therefore, a three-tier organizational setup is proposed for the implementation of the Project as shown in Figure 2.8.1. The Steering Committee will be chaired by the Chair of the Board of DCDA and composed of representatives from line ministries such as MoE, MoF, MEW, MUDA, MoM, MPW, NEPA, AUWSSC, Kabul Municipality, Kabul Province, Parwan Province, etc. This Steering Committee shall be set up, first of all, to make a national consensus for the implementation of the Project.

2) The estimated total investment cost for the entire water supply system is 506 million US$ for Phase-1. Out of this 506 million US$, the cost for the distribution branch networks and service pipes of 277 million US$ will be borne by developers and/or end-users. However, the remainder, 229 million US$, has to be raised by the Government. The amounts seem to be too large for a single institution to shoulder. Co-financing among international financial institutions and the Afghanistan Government will be inevitable. It is urgently required to raise funds from international donors and the Afghanistan Government. Taking into consideration the sustainability of the Project, the grant portion is preferred to be as big as possible.

3) It is deemed that AUWSSC, the governmental and biggest WSP (Water Service Operator) in Afghanistan is the most favorite entity for the operation and maintenance of the Project. It is required to start necessary preparations so that AUWSSC could get ready to take over the Project, including implementing a capacity development program of AUWSSC.

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4) The water rate for KNC should be determined, probably between 50 Afs/m3 and 85 Afs/m3, depending upon the availability of funds for initial investment and subsidy as shown in Table 2.6.3. In order to propose a special water rate only for the new city, approvals of the board of AUWSSC as well as the Cabinet are necessary, and the process takes a long time. Therefore, AUWSSC is required to take necessary procedures for the special rate immediately after the Steering Committee determines the rate.

5) Deficit is likely to be generated especially at the beginning of the operation stage because water charge collection is delayed a few months behind the commencement of the operation. If the population of the new city does not increase as planned, the financial situation will become much worse. A certain fund should be reserved as a running fund of the beginning stage, and smooth implementation of whole the urban development of the new city is indispensable..

6) A special ordinance, applied to KNC only, that regulates construction of wells should be created. Otherwise, people will construct wells in their house compounds in KNC if no measure is taken against this. This will cause overexploitation of the remaining scarce groundwater that is very precious for the existing villagers living in the outskirts of the KNC area. In addition, this might lead to reduction of consumption of the piped water and finally harm the financial condition of the water supply service.

7) In addition, the following actions should be taken in order to ensure early implementation of the Phase-1 Project:

To obtain approval of the EIA report from NEPA;

To obtain agreements for land acquisition from land owners,

To obtain a water activity permit and a usage license for the water source development by the infiltration gallery,;

To obtain an approval for pipe-laying under the roads from MPW;

To obtain an agreement with DABS on power supply;

To conduct detailed design; and

To proceed with urban development in the water service areas.

1.6.3 Recommendations on Dam Projects

1) Regarding the Gulbahar Dam Project, it has two critical problems, the possibility of existence of quaternary faults and the large number of relocation houses. The Afghan side is required to conduct a further survey on the quaternary faults and to revise the RAP, as well as to conduct a further detailed EIA study based upon international guidelines such as the ones of JICA.

2) The priority of the Salang Dam project is the lowest among the three projects. However, it is still worth being studied at a feasibility study level if the implementation of the Gulbahar Dam is found difficult.

3) An idea that the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Project is a temporary project of which the Phase-1 only should be implemented and be replaced by the Gulbhahar Dam was raised in the Steering Committee Meeting for this Study in October 2012. However, this development scenario might make useless the intake facilities and some of the pump stations of the Phase-1 after the replacement. In studying feasibility of this scenario, therefore, Afghanistan Government should take it into consideration that international donors never provide any funds for facilities that will be abandoned in a short time.



Chapter 2

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2-1

CHAPTER 2 FEASIBILITY STUDY OF PANJSHIR FAN AQUIFER DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 Background

The Panjshir Fan is an alluvial fan located 60 to 80 km north of Kabul City and formed by the Panjshir, Ghorband and Salang rivers. The abundant surface water and the widely extended alluvial fan promise a high potential of groundwater development in this area. Since the resettlement of people is not necessary, early implementation of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project seems possible. Thus, the Panjshir Fan Aquifer was proposed as a short term water source for the new city.

2.1.2 General Description of the Project

(1) Development Schedule

As described in Sections 1.3 and 1.4, the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project will be implemented in two phases. The Phase-1, of which completion is required as early as May 2016, needs 22.3 MCM/y of domestic and industrial water. The Phase-2 needs additional 30.5 MCM/y by the beginning of 2019.

Table 2.1.1 Phased Development of Panjshir Fan Aquifer Project Phase Main Water Supply Area Water Intake Volume Service Population Completion Year

Phase-1 Barikab, 26-Dalwa, Dehsabz South 22.3 MCM/year 610,000 May 2016

Phase-2 Barikab, Deh Sabz North, 26-Dalwa, Deh Sabz South, Paymonar, District 17 of Kabul City

30.5 MCM/year (52.8 MCM/year) 950,000 2019

Number in parentheses is accumulated number of Phases 1 and 2.

(2) Water Development Potential and Intake Facility

Based on a hydro-geological investigation, an optimal intake facility is selected out of four different intake types, deep well, radial collection well, infiltration gallery and intake weir in combination with a turbidity reduction facility. Water development potential is also discussed, focusing on available water budget and influence to neighboring and downstream water users.

(3) Water Transmission and Conveyance

The 38.2 km long conveyance pipeline will be laid along “Sayad Road” and “Bagram Road” to the Dehsabz Transmission Station. Transmission pipelines will be extended from the transmission station to the water supply areas. Routes of the conveyance and transmission pipes proposed in KMAMP are shown in the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Facilities Location Map in the opening page.

(4) Objective Facilities for Planning

It is noted that objective facilities that are subject to planning in the feasibility study are limited to those of an upper portion of the entire water supply system, namely, from intake to transmission including reservoirs. Those of the remaining lower portion; namely, distribution mains, distribution branch pipelines, and service pipes, are out of the scope of this Study.

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2.2 Water Development Potential

2.2.1 Hydrogeological Investigation

A variety of tests and observations of hydrogeological investigation including groundwater level observation, vertical electric sounding, test-pit excavation, test-well digging, water quality analysis have been conducted since February 2012 to assess groundwater development potential in the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Area. Conclusions of the assessment focusing on five factors are summarized as follows:

Table 2.2.1 Conclusion of Hydrogeological Investigation Item Conclusion

Water Budget It was confirmed that more than 4.0 m3/s excessive water is available even in 2011, a drought year with 1/6 probability in annual precipitation. This amount is larger than the development target of 2.39 m3/s (1.01m3/s in the 1st stage).

Water Quality

Quality of water distributed in the area is basically good enough for drinking water if proper disinfection and turbidity reduction facilities are provided. It is noted that turbidity of the Ghorband River increases as high as from 100 FTU to more than 1,000 FTU in the flood season from April to June.

Hydraulic Ability

The main aquifer in the area, the Younger gravel, has 10-2 to 10-1 cm/s order permeability and 25 to 50m thickness. This corresponds to or exceeds the ability of the Logar Aquifer in Kabul Basin which is most promising aquifer in the basin. In addition, the test infiltration gallery proved its water collection ability (36 liter/s with 1.5m drawdown). Therefore, it is judged that the aquifer has enough hydraulic ability to develop water.

2.2.2 Intake Facility and Turbidity Reduction Facility

In consideration of the results of the hydrogeological investigation and potential social impacts, three types of intake facility are conceived: (1) taking groundwater by deep well; (2) taking subsurface water by infiltration gallery; and (3) taking surface water by intake weir, as compared in Table 2.2.2. Putting special emphasis on social impacts and operation and maintenance cost, the infiltration gallery is finally proposed for the intake facility of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Project, although this facility still needs a turbidity reduction facility because there is a possibility that water in the galley will be higher than 5NTU (FTU) during the flood season.

Table 2.2.2 Comparison of Intake Facilities Intake

Method Evaluation Item

Deep Well Infiltration Gallery （with Sand Filter）

Intake Weir （with Sand Filter）

Land (Farmland) Occupation

Considerable farmland is occupied by well, conveyance pipe and patrol road.

Land occupation is minimized since the water collection facility is located within the river channel.

Adjacent farmland and commercial facilities are submerged by heading-up of water.

Evaluation × Evaluation ○ Evaluation ×

Social Environment

Considerable impact on the surrounding environment since reduction in groundwater table may be recorded within the zone of influence of the well discharge.

Low impact on the surrounding environment since no aboveground structure is constructed.

Greater impact on surrounding environment since above-ground structures are constructed. Existing resort will be affected.

Evaluation × Evaluation ○ Evaluation ×

Economic Efficiency

Initial cost is low. The power facilities such as submersible pumps are dispersed, thus operation efficiency is low and electricity expenses become higher.

As compared to deep well option, initial cost is much higher, but O&M cost is reasonably low.

As compared to other options, initial cost and O&M cost is much higher.

Initial Cost: 29 mil USD OM Cost: 4.8 mil USD



Evaluation ○ Evaluation ◎ Evaluation ○ Evaluation Result Adopted

Note: ◎:Excellent, ○:Good, △:Fair, ×:No Good



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2-3

As the turbidity reduction facility, slow sand filter and rapid sand filter are considered and compared as shown in Table 2.2.3. In conclusion, the slow sand filter is proposed as the turbidity reduction facility because operation and maintenance of this facility is much easier than the rapid sand filter that needs non-available materials in Afghanistan.

Table 2.2.3 Selection of Turbidity Reduction Method Intake Facility

Evaluation Item

Alternative A Infiltration Gallery + Slow Sand Filter

Alternative B Infiltration Gallery + Rapid Sand Filter

Operation Method

Under both normal and flood conditions, raw water is treated at the slow sand filter facility.

Under normal conditions, turbidity is low and direct filtration (suitable for treating raw water with low turbidity and color) is conducted by adding the reduced amount of coagulant right before the sand filter. Under flood conditions, the conventional treatment is conducted.

Characteristics of Filtration System

Filtration rate is 4 to 8 m/day. Suitable for raw water with low turbidity and stable water quality. Microbes reproduced on the surface or in the layer of fine sand decompose dissolution materials and un-dissolved substances.

Filtration rate is 120 to 150 m/day. The filter bed consists of sand coarser than the bed material used for the slow sand filter. The conventional treatment facility consists of flocculation with a chemical coagulant and sedimentation before the filtration.

Range of Turbidity Treatment

Approximately lower than 10degrees (20NTU). It is applicable for the raw water turbidity in the infiltration gallery in this project site.

No limitation.

Description of Facility (Intake Volume: 207,000 m3/day)

Receiving well, Sedimentation Basin, Slow Sand Filter, Water Reservoir, Sludge Bed, Chlorination, Control Building (laboratory)

Receiving well, Mixing Basin, Flocculation Basin, Sedimentation Basin, Rapid Sand Filter, Water Reservoir, Sludge Bed, Chlorination, Control Building (laboratory)

Land (without Intake Facility)

The area of sand filter is larger in order to treat the intake flow of 207,000 m3/day at the low filtration speed (6m/day).

about 15.5ha

The land area of this method can be reduced compared with the area of slow sand filter.

about 7.3ha

Operation and Maintenance

To maintain a suitable filtration function, filtration sand needs to be replaced periodically. Dosing volume control of coagulant is not necessary.

This is a flexible turbidity reduction system which can deal with turbidity fluctuation. Requires additional electricity cost to operate facilities for chemical pouring and backwashing which requires periodical maintenance. Dosing volume control of coagulant by jar test is necessary.

Adoptability of this Project

Operation and maintenance of this method is much easier than rapid sand filter, although periodical surface sand excavation is necessary.

Coagulation reagent and the filter sand for rapid filter method is not available in Afghanistan and cannot be procured locally. Therefore, there is a possibility that daily operation could not be performed properly.

Project Cost Preliminary Cost: 24.4 mil USD O&M Cost: 0.5 mil USD/year

Preliminary Cost: 17.5 mil USD O&M Cost: 1.6 mil USD/year

Evaluation Result Adopted

2.2.3 Water Development Potential

The next step after the selection of the intake facility is to examine if the design water discharge is available at the site and if it is allowed to take such amount of water. (Water Budget at Gallery Site)

(1) Water Budget for Infiltration Gallery

Figure 2.2.1 illustrates the water flow near the proposed infiltration gallery that will be installed under the riverbed of the Ghorband River just upstream of the confluence with the Panjshir River. River water from the upstream once disappears under the riverbed and appears again after it flows underground several kilometers in dry season. Spring

Riverbed Water

(from the Ghorband river

basin and groundwater

basin)

Irrigation Water from

Ghorband R

iver

groundwater recharge

Spring Water

(from groundwater basin)

River Water

(from the Ghorband river basin)

Sayad .Bridge

: boundary of river basin

: expected boundary ofgroundwater basin

LEGEND





LEGEND

This river section is

dried up in dry season.

Infiltration Gallery

Panjshir River

Figure 2.2.1 Water Flow near Infiltration Gallery

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water generated in the lower terraces on the riverbank gathers via canals to this lowest river stretch of the Ghorband River where the infiltration gallery will be installed. The water is regarded as remaining water that was left after water uses in the Panjshir Fan area.

In order to know how much water is available for the infiltration gallery, JWT tried to roughly estimate the Ghorband River water discharge at the gallery site where river water and spring water gathers, by using observed river discharge data. In conclusion, the minimum discharge was estimated at 6.3m3/s in 17 years. In other words, at least 6.3m3/s is available at the infiltration gallery site with a water security level of once in 17 years. Accordingly it might be concluded that at least the design intake discharge 2.39m3/s1 (corresponding to 52.8 MCM/y of water supply volume) is available at the gallery site.

(2) Groundwater Drawdown

Groundwater will be drawn down by the infiltration gallery. If it is significant in the neighboring terrace areas, it might affect water uses for irrigation, domestic use, hunting, etc. Although it is expected that the infiltration gallery that will be buried under the riverbed of the Ghorband River will not cause such significant drawdown of groundwater in the surrounding agricultural areas, a numerical simulation was carried out to estimate areal drawdown near the infiltration gallery.

According to the simulation result shown in Figure 2.2.2, the Phase-1 development will not cause significant impact to the present groundwater use, though the total discharge from the alluvial terrace next to the river stream is calculated to reduce by 10 to 14%. As for the Phase-2 development, the drawdown in the Jamshedkhel settlement is calculated to be 7 cm to 10 cm in maximum in drought years. This order of drawdown would not give significant impact to wells but some impact to spring discharge. The total discharge from Tr-1 was estimated to decrease by 25 to 32%.

Figure 2.2.2 Calculated Drawdown for Phase 2 – Severest Drought Year

1 The design intake discharge of 2.39 m3/s is obtained as follows:

Design Intake Discharge = Design Maximum Daily Supply x 1.1 Design Maximum Daily Supply = Design Average Daily Supply x 1.3 Therefore, the design intake discharge = 52.8 x 106 / (365x60x60x24) x 1.3 x 1.1 = 2.39 m3/s



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2-5

(3) Influence to Downstream

Since the water intake volume of 52.8 MCM is as small as 0.3 to 1.8% of the annual discharge volumes at the downstream hydrological stations, the influence to the downstream water users seems negligibly small.

(4) Conclusion of Study about Water Development Potential

Through the above discussions, JWT concludes the water development potential of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer, as follows:

1. JWT recommends as the intake facility the “Infiltration Gallery” with a slow sand filter.

2. JWT judges that the total maximum design discharge of 2.39 m3/s of Water PH-1 and PH-2 (corresponding to 52.8 MCM/year) is available at the Panjshir Fan Aquifer.

3. It is deemed that the design discharge water will be able to be taken by the proposed infiltration gallery without significant influences to the surroundings and the downstream. According to the numerical simulation, however, the drawdown of the groundwater around the infiltration gallery made by the full development plan (Phases 1 and 2) might affect the existing water uses in a small extent in a severe drought year. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that real drawdown be continuously monitored after the construction of the infiltration gallery, because there are still various unknown factors such as change of the river course and hydraulic conditions of the aquifer.

4. It is recommended that the development be implemented stepwisely in two phases as KMAMP proposed in order to carefully monitor the environmental impacts, especially drawdown of the groundwater.

5. The decision on the implementation of Phase-2 (30.5MCM/year) shall be made only after it is confirmed that no significant adverse impact is generated in Phase-1.

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2.3 Preliminary Planning of Water Supply Facilities

2.3.1 Component of Water Supply Facilities

(1) Water Supply Zone

In consideration of population distribution and manageable size of service zones, the service zones of Phases 1 and 2 are recommended as shown in Table 2.3.1 and Figure 2.3.1.

Table 2.3.1 Zoning for Water Supply Service

Category Zone Reservoir by KMAMP

Water PH-1 Water PH-2

Remarks Service Population

Service Population

Domestic

Barikab 1A 60,000 60,000

26-Dalwa Da (26-Dalwa) 150,000 150,000 To be constructed by MUDA.

Dehsabz South N 4B 200,000 200,000

Dehsabz South S 5A 200,000 200,000

Paymonar E 6A + 6B 170,000 To modify reservoir name to 6A hereinafter.

Paymonar C 7B1 85,000

Paymonar W 7B2 85,000

Kabul District 17 273,551 Out of scope of reservoir design.

Industrial Dehsabz-2 (South) N/A Out of scope of reservoir design.

Dehsabz-3 (Paymonar) N/A Out of scope of reservoir design.

Source: JWT



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2-7

Source: JWT

Figure 2.3.1 Location of Water Supply Service Zones

(2) Key Components of Water Supply Facilities

The water in the infiltration gallery may exceed 5 NTU of turbidity in flood season. A facility to reduce the turbidity should be necessary before transmission. JWT proposes a simple system of sand filtration for the turbidity reduction. System of the facilities is presented in Chapter 5.4 hereafter. JWT also recommends installing the sand filters at the site of water conveyance booster station, where a vacant and flat land may be easier for acquisition.

Water supply zone covered by one key reservoir Reservoir to be installed by Water PH-1 Reservoir to be installed by Water PH-2

0 2 4 6 8 10km

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Due to difference of land elevation between Panjshir fan and Dehsabz, the water should be conveyed in two steps. After the conveyance, the water is further transmitted to all destinations of the new city.

Accordingly, to transmit the water obtained at Panjshir fan, the components illustrated in Figure 2.3.2 will be necessary.

Source: JWT

Figure 2.3.2 Key Components of Water Supply Facilities

(a) Water Intake Facilities

Along the Ghorband River, screen pipes should be installed. From the screen pipe, the water will be conveyed to water collection well by water collection pipe. In the water collection well, submergible pump (water intake pump) should be installed to deliver the water to water conveyance station.



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(b) Water Conveyance Facilities

Water conveyance station should be located in Sayad and near the Ghorband River. At the station, the water will be pumped to the direction of the new city. The water should be transported by pipelines (water conveyance pipelines). Since the elevation difference between the water conveyance station and the north edge of Dehsabz reaches approximately 240m, booster station should be necessary in a middle of the route. It should be in Barikab area. As described before, the conveyance booster station should be equipped with sand filter. Then, the water will be further pumped to water transmission station located at north edge of Dehsabz North.

(c) Water Transmission Facilities

The conveyed water should be received by the water transmission station. From the station, the water will be further transported to various zones in the new city by pipelines (water transmission mains). The water will be pumped up to zones, where gravity transmission is difficult. According to topographical conditions, booster pumps should be installed for some pipelines.

(d) Water Reservoirs in Zones

The transmitted water will be received by water reservoirs. The water reservoir should be located in each water supply zone in the new city.

2.3.2 Preliminary Design of Facilities

A preliminary design was carried out for water supply facilities. Their main specifications are summarized in Table 2.3.2, and their drawings are compiled in the enclosed CD-ROM.

Table 2.3.2 Main Specifications of Water Supply Facilities

Type of Facility Facility

Main Specifications Phase 1 Phase 2

Water intake Facilities

Infiltration Gallery

Screen Pipe: D=900mm (L=556m); Laying Depth=4m; 2 galleries

Screen Pipe: D=900mm (L= 700m); D=1,000m (L=60m); Laying Depth=4m; 2 galleries

Collection Pipe Ductile Cast Iron Pipe (DCIP): D=700mm, Total length = 2,960m

Ductile Cast Iron Pipe (DCIP): D=800mm, Total length = 1,390m (Ph-2)

Intake Pump Submersible Pump: not less than 132 kW x 4 units Submersible pump: not less than 132 kW x 4units Mattress Basket Works

Mattress basket works for bank and riverbed protection

Mattress basket works for bank and river bed protection

Water Conveyance Facilities

Conveyance Station

Centrifugal pump: not less than 1,000 kW x 4 units Centrifugal pump: not less than 1,000 kW x 4units

Booster Pump Station Centrifugal Pump: not less than 900 kW x 4 units Centrifugal pump: not less than 900 kW x 4units

Conveyance Pipeline

Ductile Cast Iron Pipe (DCIP): D=900mm (L=200m), D=1,100mm( L= 29,700m) and D=800mm (L=3,500m)

Ductile Cast Iron Pipe (DCIP): D=900mm (L=200m), D=1,100mm( L= 29,700m) and D=800mm(L=3,500m)

Turbidity Reduction Facility

Slow Sand Filter Capacity: 90,000 m3/day Capacity: 120,000 m3/day

Water Transmission Facilities

Transmission Station

Reservoir and Tank Capacity Tanks for drinking water: 3,360m3; Tanks for industrial water: 400m3; Reservoir 1A: 3,000m3 Centrifugal Pump To Dalwa Reservoir: Not less than 220 kW x 3 units; To Booster PS: Not less than 800 kW x 3 units; To Industrial Park : Not less than 110 kW x 3 units Disinfection System (Sodium Hypochlorite Dosing)

Reservoir Tank Capacity Tanks for drinking water: 3,360m3, Tanks for industrial water: 400m3 Centrifugal Pump To Dalwa Reservoir: Not less than 220 kW x 1 unit; To Booster PS: Not less than 800 kW x 3 units; To Industrial Park : Not less than 110 kW x 1 unit Disinfection System (Sodium Hypochlorite Dosing)

Booster Pump Station

Centrifugal Pump To 4B Reservoir: Not less than 132 kW x 3 units To 5A reservoir: Not less than 150 kW x 3 units

Centrifugal Pump To 4B Reservoir: Not less than 132 kW x 1 unit To 5A Reservoir: Not less than 150 kW x 4 units

Booster Pump None Centrifugal Pump

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Type of Facility Facility

Main Specifications Phase 1 Phase 2

Station (Paymonar)

To Paymonar Reservoirs (7B1/7B2): Not less than 160 kW x 3 units

Transmission Pipeline

Ductile Cast Iron Pipe (DCIP): D=600mm (L=17,800m), D=800mm (L=21,170m), D=900 (L=13,300m) and D=1,100mm (L=9,500m)

Ductile Cast Iron Pipe (DCIP): D=500mm (L=11.980m), D=600mm (L=17,800m), D=800mm (L=33,400m), D=900 (L=27,420m), D=1,100mm (L=9,500m) and D=1,200mm (L=5,770m) for Ph-2

Reservoir

Reinforced Concrete Reservoirs for Ph-1 4B (7,800m3) and 5A (7,800m3) Disinfection System (Sodium Hypochlorite Dosing)

Reinforced Concrete Reservoirs for Ph-2 4B (11,700m3), 5A (11,700m3), 6A (8,600 m3), 7B1 (4,400m3) and 7B2 (4,400m3) Disinfection System (Sodium Hypochlorite Dosing)

Power Receiving System

Exclusive Line of 20kV

In order to avoid voltage drop in long distance of electric distribution, it is recommended for DABS and DCDA to provide exclusive line of 20kV to each site of pump station as shown in Figure 2.3.5.

Site altitudes of water conveyance facilities as well as transmission facilities and locations of pump stations as well as reservoirs are presented in Figure 2.3.3 and Figure 2.3.4 respectively.

5A +1,904m

4B +1,895m

7B1 +1,840m '26-

Dalwa +1,852m

+1,799m 6A +1,808m 7B2 +1,810m

+1,780m

1A

LegendConveyanceTransmission Phase-1Transmission Phase-2Transmission Phase-3Gravity

Pumping

Kabul City 17

+1,885 Water Transmiss ion Booster Station

Wate r Transmission

Booste r Stat ion

PymonarDehsabz S Industry

Note:Res.6A and 6B are integrated and newly named as 6A.

+1,460m Conveyance Station

Water Resources

Paymonar Industry

+1,739m Transmission Station

Note:Res.1A is recommended tobe constructed in the site ofwater transmission station.

+1,595mConveyance Booster Station incl Sand Filter

Source: JWT

Figure 2.3.3 Site Altitudes of Key Facilities



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Source: JWT

Figure 2.3.4 Location Plan of Pump Stations and Water Reservoirs

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Source: JWT

Figure 2.3.5 Recommended Route of 20kV Lines

2.4 Preliminary Study on Operation and Maintenance Plan

2.4.1 Organizational Structure for Implementation, Operation and Maintenance

The Kabul New City Area is still a desert where there is neither water facility nor population. It is required to set up, from scratch, entities that will construct the water facilities and/or operate and maintain



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them as water service provider. This section discusses possible organizational structures for the implementation and operation and maintenance of the Panjshir Fan Development Project.

(1) Entities involved in Water Resources Development and Supply

In Afghanistan there are several entities involved in the water resources development and supply. In the government sector, MEW, MoM, MUDA and AUWSSC are the main players. Regarding the private sector, there are several WSPs (Water Service Providers) operating where AUWSSC is not operating.

In accordance with the Water Law, MEW is responsible for water resources development, and MUDA is responsible for water supply in urban areas. MoM is concerned in groundwater.

AUWSSC is a government corporation which is responsible for the provision of water supply and sewerage services to urban areas. AUWSSC has five SBUs (Strategic Business Units), which are actually operating water supply services in their designated areas. Among them, Kabul SBU is the biggest. It has about 50,000 connections in Kabul and neighboring urban centers, and produces about 45,000 m3/d (corresponding to 16.4 MCM/y).

Private WSPs are also operating under license from MUDA in areas where AUWSSC is not operating. They are generally small in business size, and the number of connections is in the range of 120 to 1,100. Entrance of international water business companies like the so-called water majors has not been seen in Afghanistan yet, probably because of high risks caused by its undeveloped legal system and the war.

DCDA is not directly involved in water resources development and supply, but as the responsible agency for the new city development DCDA will be one of the important stakeholders.

(2) Study on Entities for Implementation, Operation and Maintenance

Under the above-mentioned situation, it seems realistic that existing water players in Afghanistan are considered as candidate entities for implementation, operation and maintenance of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project. They are probably MEW, AUWSSC, private water service providers, and land developers. DCDA which will implement the new city project also can be an implementer of the Project.

(a) Entities for Implementation (Construction)

This project will be such a gigantic water resources development and supply project that Afghanistan has not ever implemented before. The Phase-1 project alone needs some 300 million US$ of the investment cost. Therefore, this project should be regarded as a national project that the Government should tackle by inputting its resources as much as possible.

DCDA, MEW and AUWSSC will be main players for the water resources development and supply for KNC. DCDA which is responsible for the new city development seems to have a strong intention to be the owner of the project. However, DCDA has neither experience nor technical expertise to do so at present. MEW holds experiences and expertise for construction management of the intake and conveyance facilities and it now is getting interested in this project. AUWSSC, a public corporation and the biggest water service provider in Afghanistan, has experiences and basic expertise necessary for the operation and maintenance as well as the implementation of the project.

Considering the above strengths and weak points of the three organizations, it seems desirable that these three organizations will cooperate together for the implementation. DCDA and AUWSSC have started to discuss the implementation early this year. The two organizations confirmed that

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DCDA would construct the project facilities, and then AUWSSC would take them over after the completion, although there is neither written document.

MEW which has also should be involved in the cooperative framework as soon as possible. MEW is now constructing an intake facility and a 100km-long conveyance pipeline for Andkhoy Town in Faryab Province, which are supposed to be transferred to AUWSSC after the completion. This experience of collaboration will also be useful for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development.

(b) Entities for Operation and Maintenance

As for operation and maintenance, AUWSSC is outstanding for almost all the work components from intake to distribution. The governmental and biggest WSP in Afghanistan has experiences and high potentials to become the entity for the operation and maintenance of the Project, although further capacity development is necessary. It is deemed that there is no substitute except for private WSPs for the distribution system. Therefore, AUWSSC should be the entity to basically operate and maintain the total water supply system.

Entrance of the private sector might be also possible. By purchasing water at reservoirs from AUWSSC, private WSPs will be able to distribute the purchased water to end-users (Bulk Sale). At present the existing WSPs are all of small scale with some 1,000 connections at the maximum, but they will develop capacity enough to manage the water service for a subdivided water distribution system in future.

2.4.2 Water Rate

Considering the existing water rates of private service providers in Kabul and results of an interview survey that was conducted for 640 households in Kabul City in July 2011, JWT proposes two water rates for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project, a conservative rate: 50 Afs/m3 and an optimistic rate: 85 Afs/m3. The conservative rate of 50 Afs/m3, which is based on IRBD’s “Project Appraisal Manual” that says a household’s maximum affordability to pay for water service is 4% of its disposable income is still in the range of the existing rates, 15 to 85 Afs/m3. The optimistic rate, 85 Afs/m3 is the existing maximum rate in the unplanned area of Kabul.

Increasing block tariffs in which the rate per unit of water increases as the volume of consumption increases are being practiced in many countries, although a single average rate has been discussed in this section. This kind of tariff allows poor people who use less water a lower rate. For KNC also, introduction of increasing block tariffs should be examined in future stages when attributes of migrants to KNC are made clear.

2.4.3 Operation and Maintenance Plan

Principal activities for operation and maintenance of the entire water supply system are summarized as follows:

Operating and maintaining all pump stations and treatment plant.

Operating and maintaining all pipeline networks including water reservoirs.

Maintaining quality of water to be distributed.

Managing all operation data.

Planning and improving services as well as extension of facilities and water volume.

Managing customers as well as sales development and customers’ opinions.

Collecting tariff.



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Managing all labors and auxiliary affairs.

Financing and accounting necessary budget/expenditure as well as procurement of parts, tools, equipment and construction/installation service.

Assuming that one entity administers directly all activities without subcontracting, a four-department system is recommended for the organization of the entity. The four departments are Administration, Sales and Customer Management, Information and Planning, and Operation and Maintenance. JWT has estimated the total necessary number of staff at about 380 for Phase-1 and 600 for Phase-2 respectively.

2.5 Cost Estimate

2.5.1 Investment Cost

Based on a price survey on local and international companies for construction, materials/equipment supply, trading and transportation, JWT estimated the investment costs for Phases 1 and 2 respectively as shown in Table 2.5.1 and Table 2.5.2.

Table 2.5.1 Initial Investment Cost of PH-1

No. Facility Cost (1,000US$) Remarks Direct Cost 1 Intake (Infiltration Gallery, Collection Pipe, Collection

Well) 8,889

2 Water Conveyance Pipes 26,592 3 Conveyance Station and Conveyance Booster Station 21,189 4 Turbidity Reduction Facility (Slow Sand Filter) 8,682 5 Water Transmission Station including Reservoir 1A 14,992 6 Transmission Booster Station [BTS (T)] 9,069 7 Transmission Pipes 36,110 8 Reservoirs 4B and 5A 3,049 Sub-Total 128,572

Indirect Cost A Administration Cost 12,857 10% of Direct Cost B Engineering Cost 12,857 10% of Direct Cost C Physical Contingency 12,857 10% of Direct Cost D Land Acquisition and Compensation 2,554 E Security Cost 1,286 1% of Direct Cost F Sales Taxes 3,419 2% of (Direct Cost+A+B+C+D+E) Sub-Total 45,829 Grand Total 174,401

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Table 2.5.2 Initial Investment Cost of PH-2 No. Facility Cost (1,000US$) Remarks Direct Cost 1 Intake (Infiltration Gallery, Collection Pipe, Collection

Well) 8,978

2 Water Conveyance Pipes 26,592 3 Conveyance Station and Conveyance Booster Station 12,152 4 Turbidity Reduction Facility (Slow Sand Filter) 8,554 5 Water Transmission Station 5,731 6 Transmission Booster Stations [BTS(T) and Paymonar] 11,528 7 Transmission Pipes 44,262 8 Reservoirs 4B, 5A, 6A, 7B1 and 7B2 4,335 Sub-Total 122,132

Indirect Cost A Administration Cost 12,213 10% of Direct Cost B Engineering Cost 12,213 10% of Direct Cost C Physical Contingency 12,213 10% of Direct Cost D Land Acquisition and Compensation 302 E Security Cost 1,221 1% of Direct Cost F Sales Taxes 3,205 2% of (Direct Cost+A+B+C+D+E) Sub-Total 41,367 Grand Total 163,499

The total investment cost for the entire water supply system of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Project including the distribution mains and branches and connection pipes, of which designing is out of scope of this Study is estimated as follows:

Table 2.5.3 Initial Investment Cost for Entire Water Supply System (mil. US$)

Facilities Phase-1 Phase-2 Total Remarks

Intake to Reservoirs 174 163 337 Estimated based upon preliminary design.

Distribution Mains 55 28 83 Roughly estimated.

Distribution Branches 273 143 416 Roughly estimated. This cost is borne by developers.

Connection of Service Pipes 4 2 6 50US$ per connection is assumed.

This cost is borne by developers or end users. Total 506 336 842

2.5.2 Operation and Maintenance Cost

The Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Cost is estimated, by assuming that NRW including leakage for the domestic water for KNC will increase from 5% in 2016 and 20% in 2025, as shown in Table 2.5.4. The annual operation and maintenance cost will increase from 12 million US$ in 2015 to 41 million US$ in 2025 as the service population increases and the water supply facilities develops. The unit cost per 1 m3/s of billed water (Revenue Water) is between 0.85 US$ (42Afs/m3) and 0.91 US$ (45Afs/m3).



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Table 2.5.4 Summary of Operation and Maintenance Cost by Year

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Item (US$/y) (US$/y) (US$/y) (US$/y) (US$/y)

Wages 1,665,600 1,719,600 1,773,600 2,581,800 2,643,000 Energy 7,465,412 9,207,342 11,073,695 23,076,337 25,845,497 O&M Cost 583,240 583,240 583,240 1,043,260 1,043,260 Miscellaneous Cost 832,800 859,800 886,800 1,290,900 1,321,500 Chemicals for Disinfection 1,206,319 1,487,793 1,789,373 3,628,749 4,064,199

Total 11,753,371 13,857,775 16,106,708 31,621,046 34,917,456

Ave supply water amount (MCM/y) 13.433 16.600 19.905 39.423 44.199 Ave billed water amount (MCM/y) 12.886 15.613 18.339 37.299 41.067 NRW ratio (%) for Total 4% 6% 8% 5% 7% NRW ratio (%) for Domestic Water for KNC 5% 7% 9% 8% 10%

Ave cost / supply water (US$/m3) 0.87 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.79

Ave cost /billed water (US$/m3) 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.85 0.85

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Item (US$/y) (US$/y) (US$/y) (US$/y) (US$/y)

Wages 2,700,600 2,700,600 2,700,600 2,700,600 2,700,600 Energy 28,614,657 29,230,026 29,845,395 30,153,080 30,768,449 O&M Cost 1,043,260 1,043,260 1,043,260 1,043,260 1,043,260 Miscellaneous Cost 1,350,300 1,350,300 1,350,300 1,350,300 1,350,300 Chemicals for Disinfection 4,499,649 4,596,415 4,693,182 4,741,565 4,838,332

Total 38,208,466 38,920,601 39,632,737 39,988,805 40,700,941

Ave supply water amount (MCM/y) 49.230 50.071 50.952 51.857 52.789 Ave billed water amount (MCM/y) 44.869 44.869 44.869 44.869 44.869 NRW ratio (%) for Total 9% 10% 12% 13% 15% NRW ratio (%) for Domestic Water for KNC 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Ave cost / supply water (US$/m3) 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.77

Ave cost / billed water (US$/m3) 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.91 Source: JWT


2.6.1 Economic Analysis

Economic analysis is conducted to confirm economic viability of the entire water supply system of the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project (Phases 1 and 2) from the intake (infiltration gallery) to the end users including distribution main and branch pipelines of which designing is out of scope of this Study.

The Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project aims to supply water to District 17 of the existing Kabul City as well as the new city. However, this economic analysis focuses only on the water supply to the new city including domestic and industrial water, and excludes that for the existing city because it is out of the study area and details of the water supply for the existing city have not been fixed yet at all. It is also assumed that developed industrial water will be sold to an industrial estate in a manner of bulk sale.

Economic benefits are generally composed of incremental benefits and those for cost reduction from without-project situations to with-project situations. It is assumed that KNC will be developed as scheduled even without the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Project. It is also assumed that water for the

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development areas is ensured by water supply by tank lorry, bottled water and the water supply system for the Parcel-1 Area in Dehsabz South. Thus, the expected benefits are assumed as follows:

Table 2.6.1 With- and Without-Project and Expected Benefits With/Without

Project Situations Expected Benefits Incremental Benefit Cost Reduction

Without Project

KNC is developed as scheduled with water supply as follows: Parcel-1 Area in DehSabz South is

continued to be provided with water from the temporary water source, Pol-e-Charkhi.

The other areas are provided with water by tank lorry and bottled water for drinking and cooking.

Water Supply for 610,000 people for Phase-1 and 950,000 people for Phase-2.

Industrial water supply of 2.5MCM/y for Phase-1 and 5.0MCM/y for Phase-2.

Cost reduction from water supply by tank lorry to water supply by the Panjshir project.

Cost reduction from bottled water to water supply by the Panjshir project.

Cost reduction from water supply for Parcel-1 Area to water supply by the Panjshir project. With Project Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development

Project is implemented as planned. The EIRRs for Phases 1 and 2 are greater than the opportunity cost of 12%, and it can be said that the Project is economically viable.

Table 2.6.2 Summary of Results of Economic Analysis Case B/C (12% Discount) NPV (12% Discount) EIRR

Case 1 (50 Afs/m3) 1.54 256.1 million US$ 19.6% Case 1 (85 Afs/m3) 1.62 296.3 million US$ 20.7% Case 2 (50 Afs/m3) 1.53 368.3 million US$ 19.6% Case 2 (85 Afs/m3) 1.64 441.6 million US$ 20.9% Case 1: Phase 1 (Facility Capacity in Population of 610 thousand) Case 2: Phase 1 & Phase 2 (Facility Capacity in Population of 950 thousand)

2.6.2 Financial Analysis

Following the economic analysis, financial analysis was also made. Due to high costs of the initial investment and operation and maintenance, it is very difficult to attain full cost recovery.

In the case of the conservative water rate of 50Afs/m3, the project is financially very difficult. Not only grant funds but also annual subsidies have to be provided to recover the cost. Even the optimistic rate of 85Afs/m3 alone cannot solve the financial problem. Depending upon the amounts of the grant funds for the initial investment cost, annual subsidy for the operation and maintenance cost are also indispensable for ensuring financial feasibility, as presented in Table 2.6.3.

Table 2.6.3 Necessary Annual Subsidy by Water Rate and Grant Rate

Case

Necessary Subsidy per Year (million US$) *1

Water Rate Water Rate 50Afs/m3 85Afs/m3

Case 1-Phase 1 (Grant rate: 0%) 16 6 Case 1-Phase 1 (Grant rate: 25%) 13 2 Case 1-Phase 1 (Grant rate: 50%) 10 - Case 1-Phase 1 (Grant rate: 75%) 6 - Case 1-Phase 1 (Grant rate: 100%) 3 - Case 2-Phase 1&2 (Grant rate: 0%) 21 1 Case 2-Phase 1&2 (Grant rate: 25%) 17 - Case 2-Phase 1&2 (Grant rate: 50%) 12 - Case 2-Phase 1&2 (Grant rate: 75%) 8 - Case 2-Phase 1&2 (Grant rate: 100%) 4 - *1: Necessary subsidy per year is subsidy for B/C = 1 under 4% discount



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Operation and maintenance of the infiltration gallery, the treatment plant and the big pumps are new or less-experienced technologies for AUWSSC. It is recommended to outsource capacity development of AUWSSC staff as well as the operation and maintenance to contractors of these facilities or international water service providers in a few years immediately after the completion.

2.7 Environmental and Social Considerations

An EIA study was conducted for the proposed Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project in accordance with the JICA Guidelines. The study results are compiled into an EIA Report and summarized as follows:

2.7.1 Environmental Impacts and Mitigation Measures

Assessed environmental impacts rated “B” (some negative impacts are expected) are tabulated in the following table together with their mitigation measures.

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Table 2.7.1 Summary of Impact Assessment

No. Impacts Rating

Results of Impact Assessment Mitigation Measures Scoping Stage

Final Results

Social Environment

1 Involuntary resettlement C B

Preparation Phase: In total, 41.05ha of land needs to be acquired for intake facilities, pump facilities and reservoirs although resettlement of residents will not be needed.

Preparation Phase: The land shall be compensated in conformity with the national law.

5 Existing social infrastructures and services

B B Construction Phase: Since the pipeline will be laid under the existing road, the road traffic will be disturbed during construction works.

Construction Phase: The other side of the road shall be kept open with safety control for securing the traffic.

7 Misdistribution of benefit and damage

C B Operation Phase: Even though the water resources will be preserved, local people state some benefits need to be provided to them instead of taking their water to the new city.

Operation Phase: Some beneficial projects need to be planned for the local people.

9 Local conflict of interests C B

Operation Phase: Even though the water resources will be preserved, it is necessary to plan some beneficial projects for the local people to prevent social conflict.

(same as No. 7)

10 Water Usage or Water Rights and Rights of Common

C B Operation Phase: Results of hydro-geological analysis showed that designed water intake will not cause significant impacts to the water use; however, uncertainty needs to be considered.

(same as No. 15)

11 Sanitation B B Construction Phase: Sanitation condition may become worse in case of inflow of large number of construction workers.

Construction phase: Local people shall be hired for the construction works as much as possible. Sanitation facilities shall be provided.

12 Hazards (Risk) Infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS

B B Construction Phase: Although HIV/AIDS affection has not been reported around the project area, the risk of infectious diseases may increase in case of inflow of large number of construction workers.

Construction Phase: Local people shall be hired for the construction works as much as possible.

Natural Environment

15 Groundwater C B

Operation Phase: Results of hydro-geological analysis showed that designed water intake will not cause significant impacts to the groundwater (water volume, groundwater drawdown and reduction of spring discharge.); however, uncertainty needs to be considered.

Operation Phase: Stepwise development with careful monitoring of groundwater level and discharge volume shall be carried out.

16 Hydrological Situation C B (same as No .15) (same as No. 15)

Pollution

22 Air Pollution B B Construction Phase: Emission of construction vehicles will affect residential area along Sayad road.

Construction Phase: Proper construction vehicles with good condition shall be used.

25 Waste B B

Construction Phase: Construction surplus soil will be generated. However, most of them will be used for burying the pipes and backfilling the river bank. Therefore, the impact is deemed to be tentative. Operation Phase: Sludge will be generated for water treatment (3,600 m3/year); however, it can be utilized or disposed with little environmental impacts.

-

26 Noise and Vibration B B

Construction Phase: Construction noise will affect hunting activities around the site for water intake. The noise for laying pipeline will disturb residents along Sayad Road. Operation Phase: Pump station will not generate large noise to the surroundings.

Construction Phase: For the construction works adjacent to the hunting pools, consultation shall be made with the hunting people to obtain their consensus. For the works adjacent to the residential area (e.g. Sayad Road), works during nighttime shall be restricted.

30 Accidents B B Construction Phase: There are risks of construction accidents as well as traffic accidents by construction vehicles.

Construction Phase: Safety control and announcement to the local people shall be secured.

Rating: A: Significant negative impact is expected; B: Some negative impact is expected. C: Extent of impact is unknown; D: No impact is expected.

2.7.2 Environmental Management Plan

Two items, construction works and groundwater tables near the infiltration gallery, should be managed very carefully.



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(1) Environmental Management of Construction Works

The following should be included in the TOR for the construction works:

To hire local people as workforce; To prepare sanitation facility at the construction site; To use construction vehicles with good condition; To secure safety control; To announce to the surrounding villages schedule and location of the construction works and

precautions such as road restriction and passage of heavy equipment; To coordinate with the hunting activities (Construction of intake facility); To secure road traffic; and To restrict works in the nighttime.

(2) Monitoring of Groundwater Table

Although the results of the hydro-geological analysis showed that the proposed water intake (infiltration gallery) for both Phases 1 and 2 would not cause significant impacts on the groundwater table, stepwise development with careful monitoring is required considering the uncertainty of the prediction.

The monitoring shall be conducted at the existing monitoring points of groundwater level and discharge. In addition, three new points are proposed by digging new test wells. The observation method and frequency at each point and the location are shown in Table 2.7.2.

Table 2.7.2 Observation Method and Frequency at Designated Points

Observation Items

Type of Monitoring Point

Number of Points Name of Point Method Frequency

Groundwater Level

Existing well 9 QB4, QH1, KD9, T11, SnU2, TB1, ZB1, Sne1, JM1

Handy groundwater level meter Monthly

Existing test well* 4 TW1, TW4, TW5, TW6

Automatic or handy groundwater level meter

Hourly or monthly

Proposed new test well 3 - Automatic groundwater

level meter Hourly

Discharge

Existing test well* (Flowing) 1 TW2 Bucket and stopwatch Hourly

Spring 2 JS3, JS13 Bucket and stopwatch Twice a week

Canal 9 Q1-Q9 Digital flow meter and section measurement Monthly

Total 28 - - - * Existing test wells are dug during this study and the master plan study.

2.8 Implementation Plan

Based on all the above study results, JWT proposes the implementation plan as follows:

2.8.1 Project Cost

(1) Initial Investment Cost

The estimated total investment cost for the entire water supply system is 506 and 336 million US$ for Phase-1 and 2 respectively as shown in Table 2.5.3. According to the DCDA business plan, the cost

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for the distribution branch networks will be borne by developers and that for service pipe connection will be borne by developers or end-users. However, the remainder, 229 million US$ for Phase-1 and 191 million US$ for Phase-2 have to be raised by the Government. The amounts seem to be too large for a single institution to shoulder. Co-financing among international financial institutions and the Afghanistan Government will be unavoidable.

(2) Operation and Maintenance Cost

The annual operation and maintenance cost will increase from 12 million US$ in 2015 to 41 million US$ in 2025 as the service population increases and the water supply facilities develops. The unit cost per 1 m3/s of billed water (Revenue Water) is between 0.85 US$ (42Afs/m3) and 0.91 US$ (45Afs/m3).

2.8.2 Implementation Schedule

A tentative implementation schedule is proposed as shown in Table 2.8.1. It is noted that the implementation schedule is only for the works that were subject to this feasibility study. It is needless to say that the construction works of distribution mains and branch pipeline networks should be implemented at the same time for the water service to get ready in May 2016.



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2-23

Table 2.8.1 Proposed Implementation Schedule

Facilities Track

Phase-1 →Phase-1 Service Start

Pipe Install(4 party)


Facility ConstructionPipe Install

EarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallPipe Install(1 party)



EarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallPipe Install(2 party)





EarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe Install

Facilities Track

Phase-2 Phase-2 Service Start →



Facility ConstructionPipe Install











EarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe InstallEarthworkFacility ConstructionPipe Install

Number of Labors and Equipments (/day) Construction Period2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sand Filter

Number of Labors and Equipments (/day) Construction Period2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Reservoir 5A

Water Conveyance Pipe (CW → WCS）

Water Conveyance Pipe (WCS → BPS）

Water Conveyance Pipe (BPS→WTS）

Water Transmission Station & Reservoir 1A

Water Transmission Booster Station

Infiltration gallery

Collection Pipe

Collection Well

Water Conveyance Station

Water Conveyance Booster Station

Water Transmission Pipe （WTS → TBS)

Water Transmission Pipe （WTS → Res.26D）

Water Transmission Pipe （TBS → Res.4B）

Water Transmission Pipe （TBS → Res.5A）

Water Transmission Pipe（WTS → Dehsab South Industry）

Reservoir 4B

Water Transmission Booster Station for Paymonar(TBS(Py))

Infiltration gallery

Collection Pipe

Collection Well

Water Conveyance Station

Water Conveyance Booster Station

Sand Filter

Water Conveyance Pipe (CW → WCS）

Water Conveyance Pipe (WCS → CBP）

Water Conveyance Pipe (CBP→WTS）

Water Transmission Station & Reservoir 1A

Water Transmission Booster Station

Reservoir 7B2

Water Transmission Pipe （WTS → TBS）

Water Transmission Pipe （TBS → Res.5A）

Water Transmission Pipe （Dehsab South Industry → Paymonar）

Water Transmission Pipe （5A → 6A）

Water Transmission Pipe（6A → TBS(PY)）

Water Transmission Pipe（TBS(PY) → 7B1）

Water Transmission Pipe（7B1 → 7B2）

Reservoir 4B

Reservoir 5A

Reservoir 6A

Reservoir 7B1

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2.8.3 Organizational Setup

Based upon the discussion in Section 2.4, an organizational setup for implementation, operation and maintenance is proposed as follows:

(1) Implementation (Construction)

This project will be such a gigantic water resources development and supply project that Afghanistan has not ever implemented before. This project should be regarded as a national project that the Government should tackle by inputting its resources as much as possible.

Considering strengths and week points of related organizations, an organizational setup is proposed for the implementation of the Project as shown in Figure 2.8.1.

Steering CommitteeDCDA (Chair), MoE, MoF, MEW, MUDA, Mom, MPW,

AUWSSC, NEPA, Kabul Municipality, Kabul Province,

Parwan Province, etc.

Project Office

Sub-Project

Office 1

(Intake)

Sub-Project

Office 2

(Conveyance pipelines)

Sub-Project

Office 3

(Conveyance Pump,

Booster stations)

Sub-Project

Office XX

(Disribution Mains)

Sub-Project

Office X

(Reservoirs)

Project Manager

(DCDA)

Technical

Coordination Division

Construction

Management DivisionFinancial Division

Administration

Division

Figure 2.8.1 Organizational Setup for Implementation

The Steering Committee will be chaired by the Chair of the Board of DCDA and composed of representatives form line ministries such as MoE, MoF, MEW, MUDA, MoM, MPW, NEPA, AUWSSC, Kabul Municipality, Kabul Province, Parwan Province, etc. Its main function is decision making and coordination for the preparation and implementation of the project.

The Project Office will be managed and operated by DCDA which is the owner of the project, supported by staff temporarily transferred from the line ministries. The entire Project (Phases 1 and 2) are divided into several sub-project packages by financial source and/or project component. The sub-projects include those for the distribution branches that are to be constructed by developers. For each sub-project, a Sub-Project Office is set up to execute and manage the work package. MEW and AUWSSC will provide their technical staff to the Sub-Project Offices. Details of roles of the three organizations are presented in Table 2.8.2. Since water can be delivered to people in KNC only when all the sub-project packages from the intake to the service pipes become ready, the management of the progress of the sub-projects is very important.



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2-25

Table 2.8.2 Role of Three Organizations Agency Preparation Stage Implementation Stage

Steering Committee

Make a consensus among members for implementation of the entire Project (Phase-1 and/or Phase-2).

Determine water rate. Determine entity for operation and maintenance. Coordinate with related organizations for

preparation of the Project. Create an ordinance to regulate construction of

wells in KNC.

Coordinate with related organizations for implementation of the Project.

Project Office

Raise funds for the Project Execute preparation works (See Section 9.5) as

directed by Steering committee). Make coordination among sub-projects Monitor progeess of urban development

Execute implementation works as directed by Steering Committee.

Make coordination among sub-projects. Monitor construction of distribution branch

pipelines by developers. Monitor groundwater near the intake. Monitor progress of sub-projects. Monitor progress of urban development.t

Sub-Project Office Execute preparation works with Project Office Implement sub-project.

(2) Operation and Maintenance

AUWSSC is outstanding for almost all the work components from the intake to the distribution. The governmental and biggest WSP (Water Service Operator) in Afghanistan has experiences and high potentials to become the entity for the operation and maintenance of the Project, although further capacity development is indispensable. It is deemed that there is no substitute at present except for private WSPs for the distribution system. Therefore, AUWSSC should be the entity to basically operate and maintain the total water supply system.

It is proposed that a new Sub-Strategic Business Unit (SSBU) will be created in KSBU (Kabul Strategic Business Unit of AUWSSC) for the operation and maintenance of the water supply system of Parcel-1, which are about to be implemented prior to the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development under assistance of JICA. It might be reasonable to have this SSBU cover the other service areas that are supposed to be developed one after another in the new city. When this SSBU has grown up enough as the service areas expands, it will be removed from KSBU and be transformed into a new SBU, which will be dedicated to the new city. However, it is needless to say that capacity development programs should be carried out under assistances of donors to support operation and maintenance by AUWSSC.

In the operation stage, the quality of the water service and the financial conditions by AUWSSC will be monitored and controlled by its board members (MUDA, MoF, MoE, NEPA and Kabul Municipality).

(a) Water Rate

The water rate for KNC should be determined probably between 50 Afs/m3 and 85 Afs/m3, depending upon the availability of funds for initial investment and subsidy. For the sustainability of the water supply service, the water rate should be as high as affordable for the customers. In order to apply a special rate only for the new city, approvals of the board of AUWSSC as well as the cabinet are necessary, and the process takes a long time. Therefore, AUWSSC is required to take necessary procedures for the special rate immediately after the Steering Committee determines the rate.

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(b) Ownership of Facilities

If all the construction cost is covered by grant funds, DCDA, the project owner can transfer the facility ownership to AUWSSC, the O&M entity, free of charge as being done between MEW and AUWSSC for Andkhoy Town in Faryab Province. In case loans are borrowed, DCDA will transfer the facilities to AUWSSC together with loans, or DCDA will keep their ownership and rent them to AUWSSC.

(c) Risk of Delay of Settlement

It should be noted that the above-said financial analysis was based on an optimistic scenario that the settlement population in KNC would increase as planned. It was assumed that as many as 410,000 people are already there when the Phase-1 starts to operate in 2016. In reality, however, it is possible that the population would not increase as rapidly as planned. If not, the delay of settlement could affect very much the business of the water service provider because a certain part of the operation and maintenance cost have to be incurred from the beginning of the operation even if the number of consumers is very small. The longer delayed, the more the deficit is accumulated.

(d) Reservation of Funds for the Start of Operation Stage

Even if the settlement population grows as planned, deficit is still likely to be generated especially at the start of operation, because water charge collection will be delayed for a few months after the commencement of operation. Therefore, a certain fund should be reserved as the running fund of the beginning stage.

(e) Control of Well in KNC

Since the Water Law allows construction of wells to meet drinking and livelihood needs, people will construct wells in their house compounds in KNC if no measure is taken against this. This will cause overexploitation of the remaining scarce groundwater that is very precious for the existing villagers living in the outskirts of KNC area. In addition, this might lead to reduction of consumption of the piped water and finally harm the financial condition of the water supply service. A special ordinance, applied to KNC only, that regulates construction of wells should be created.

2.8.4 Preparation of Phase-1

JWT recommends that the Afghan side should take the following actions towards the commencement of implementation of the Phase-1 project:

To organize the Steering Committee and the Project Office as shown in Figure 2.8.1; To organize a campaign to raise funds for the project from the central government and

international financial institutions; To obtain approval of the EIA report from NEPA; To obtain agreements for land acquisition from land owners; To obtain a water activity permit and a usage license for the water source development by the

infiltration gallery; To obtain approval for pipe-laying under the roads from MPW; To obtain an agreement with DABS on power supply; To conduct detailed design; and To proceed with urban development in the water service areas



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3-1

CHAPTER 3 PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY OF SALANG DAM PROJECT

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 Background

Two storage dams were proposed in KMAMP; namely, the Gulbahar Dam and the Salang Dam. One of the two dams is supposed to shoulder water demand of 2022 and thereafter. The Salang Dam, of which candidate sites are located about 10 to 20 km upstream of Jabul Saraj Town on the Salang River, was proposed as an alternative to the Gulbahar Dam in KMAMP.

3.1.2 General Description of Project

(1) Target Development

The Salang Dam is supposed to develop 52.4 MCM/year for the new city by 2022.

(2) Objective Facilities for Pre-feasibility Study

The Salang Dam and the conveyance pipeline from the dam to the Paymonar Treatment Plant are objective facilities for this pre-feasibility study.

3.2 Preliminary Planning of Salang Dam

3.2.1 Preliminary Selection and Screening of Alternative Dam Site

Five (5) alternative dam sites were identified in the lower reach of Salang River through site reconnaissance and topographic examination. Through the comparison of main features of alternative dam sites, it was considered that Dam Sites C, D and E had advantages and were selected as alternative sites to be studied further.

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Figure 3.2.1 Location of Alternative Dam Sites

3.2.2 Geology of Dam Site

Conditions of geology in all dam sites are good for the foundation of concrete gravity dam and rockfill dam.

(1) Quaternary Fault

Eight (8) Quaternary faults are written in literatures in the radius of 10km from dam sites and 39 Lineaments were read in the radius of 10km from dam sites by preliminary areal photo interpretation. No fault that may cause a serious problem to any dam had been confirmed at all dam sites.

0 1km

N

Dam Site E

Dam Site D

Dam Site A

Dam Site B

Dam Site C

Dam-axis EL.2000m



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3-3

(2) Landslide around the Project Area

Small scale landslides were observed at the eight sites. The largest landslide was found at Dam Site D. Detailed investigation would be necessary in case Dam Site D is selected as the optimum dam site. Landslides at the other seven sites are relatively small; they will not cause serious problems.

(3) Geologic Problem for the Reservoir

Relatively thick bedded crystalline limestone is distributed in the northern project area, but there is low possibility of leak from reservoir to another river.

(4) Construction Material of Dam

Concrete aggregate and rock/coarse materials can be obtained from the neighborhood of dam site and reservoir. Core material of rockfill dam can be obtained in the area about 10km south from dam site.

3.2.3 Selection of Optimum Dam Site among Dam Site C, D and E

Dam Site C, D and E have been compared in terms of geology, environmental and social impact and construction cost. There were no crucial differences among three dam sites in terms of geology and social affect. The optimum dam site was therefore selected based on the main features of each dam site.

Table 3.2.1 Main Features of Dam Site C, D and E

Dam Site Feaures Dam Site C Dam Site D Dam Site E Case 1 : Reservoir Storage Capacity: 121 MCM (Release 8.0 m3/s for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station) Dam Height 180 m 140 m 155 m Reservoir Surface Area 2.25 km2 2.35 km2 2.70 km2 Volume of Dam Body 19.4 MCM 18.3 MCM 15.9 MCM Water Storage Efficiency (Ranking) 6.2 (3) 6.6 (2) 7.6 (1) Case 2 : Reservoir Storage Capacity: 62 MCM (Release 4.0 m3/s for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station) Dam Height 145 m 110 m 125 m Reservoir Surface Area 1.33 km2 1.52 km2 1.62 km2 Volume of Dam Body 10.17 MCM 9.44 MCM 8.13 MCM Water Storage Efficiency (Ranking) 6.1 (3) 6.6 (2) 7.6 (1) Case 3 : Reservoir Storage Capacity: 43 MCM (Release 0.0 m3/s for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station) Dam Height 135 m 105 m 115 m Reservoir Surface Area 1.11 km2 1.42 km2 1.38 km2 Volume of Dam Body 8.68 MCM 7.91 MCM 7.00 MCM Water Storage Efficiency (Ranking) 5.0 (3) 5.4 (2) 6.1 (1)

Note: MCM: Million Cubic Meters, Water storage efficiency = Reservoir storage capacity / Volume of dam body

As the result, Dam Site E had been selected as the optimum dam site because its work volume is the least among the alternatives in any case.

3.2.4 Cases of Pre-Feasibility Study of the Salang Dam

(1) Consideration on Water Uses in the Downstream

The dam construction gives significant hydrological impacts especially to water uses in the downstream. There are about 3,000 ha of agricultural areas and a hydropower plant along the Salang River. The Salang Dam is planned not to decrease irrigation water to the agricultural areas.

The Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station is a run-of-the-river hydropower station located about 10 to 20km downstream of the dam sites. It was found that the historic Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station is being reconstructed to generate 2.2MW of power at the maximum. If the Salang Dam releases water as much as the hydropower station requires, the dam needs a huge reservoir capacity, resulting in a very high

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cost. Therefore, possibility of the Salang Dam as a multipurpose dam (water supply and hydropower generation) was also studied as an alternative that might replace the Jabul Suraj Hydropower Station.

In addition to the existing water uses, the water intake (infiltration gallery) for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer development that will be placed under the riverbed of the Ghorband River should be taken into consideration. Since the Panjshir Fan project is implemented prior to the Salang Dam, the dam project should not affect the water intake of the Panjshir project.

(2) Study Cases

The Salang Dam is preliminarily designed at Dam Site E. The following three cases were studied in the pre-feasibility study for the Salang Dam. Water security level was set at 10-year return period, because Salang River does not have enough water resource to satisfy the “No Drought” security level.

Case 1: Release Water for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station = 8.0 m3/s



3.2.5 Reservoir Water Capacity

Reservoir storage capacity of the Salang Dam consists of two (2) components; namely, (1) sediment capacity and (2) water use capacity. Electric power generation has no exclusive capacity because power generation will be dependent on water supply.

Major features of pre-feasibility study cases of the Salang Dam are summarized in Figure 3.2.2. Case-1(Release Water for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station = 8.0 m3/s) Case-2

EL 2120 m (Dam Crest Level) (Release Water for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station = 4.0 m3/s)

EL 2117.4 m (High Water Level) Case-3EL 2115 m (Normal Water Level) (Release Water for Jabul Saraj Hydropower Station = 0.0 m3/s)

EL 2090 m (Dam Crest Level)

EL 2087.4 m (High Water Level)

EL 2085 m (Normal Water Level)EL 2080 m (Dam Crest Level)

EL 2077.4 m (High Water Level)

EL 2075 m (Normal Water Level)

Water Use Capacity Water Use Capacity Water Use Capacity101 MCM 42 MCM 23 MCM

EL 2045 m (Lowest Water Level) EL 2045 m (Lowest Water Level) EL 2045 m (Lowest Water Level)

Sediment Capacity Sediment Capacity Sediment Capacity20 MCM 20 MCM 20 MCM

(500 m3/km2/year) (500 m3/km2/year) (500 m3/km2/year)

EL 1965 m (Dam Foundation) EL 1965 m (Dam Foundation) EL 1965 m (Dam Foundation)

Dam

Height 155 m

Dam

Height 125 m

Gross C

apacity 43 MC

M

Gross C

apacity 121 MC

M

Gross C

apacity 62 MC

M

Dam

Height 115 m

Figure 3.2.2 Reservoir Capacity Allocation at Dam Site E



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3-5

3.2.6 Dam Type

Zoned rockfill dam and concrete gravity dam can be applied to the Salang Dam. From the technical and economical points of view, the zoned rockfill dam (center core rockfill dam) is adopted as the most suitable alternative dam type for the Salang Dam in this pre-feasibility study due to its cost advantage.

According to the result of slope stability analysis of dam body, upstream slope and downstream slope of embankment body of the Salang Dam are designed at 1.0 vertical to 3.0 horizontal and 1.0 vertical to 2.0 horizontal, respectively.

Figure 3.2.3 Typical Cross Section of Center Core Rockfill Dam

3.2.7 Summary of Preliminary Planning of Salang Dam

(1) Reservoir Item Case 1 Case 2 Case 3

Reservoir Surface Area 2.70 km2 1.62 km2 1.38 km2 Maximum Design Flood Surface EL. 2117.4 m EL. 2087.4 m EL. 2077.4 m Normal Water Surface EL. 2115 m EL. 2085 m EL. 2075 m Low Water Surface EL. 2045 m EL. 2045 m EL. 2045 m Gross Storage Capacity 121 MCM 62 MCM 43 MCM Effective Storage Capacity (Water Use Capacity) 101 MCM 42 MCM 23 MCM Sediment Capacity 20 MCM 20 MCM 20 MCM

(2) Dam Body Item Case 1 Case 2 Case 3

Height above Foundation 155 m 125 m 115 m Crest Elevation EL. 2120 m EL. 2090 m EL. 2080 m Foundation Elevation EL. 1965 m EL. 1965 m EL. 1965 m Upstream / Downstream Slope 1 : 3.0 / 1 : 2.0 1 : 3.0 / 1 : 2.0 1 : 3.0 / 1 : 2.0 Crest Length / Width 650 m / 10m 470 m / 10m 430 m / 10m

(3) Spillway Item Case 1 Case 2 Case 3

Design Flood (Probable Maximum Flood) 460 m3/s 460 m3/s 460 m3/s Design Discharge for Energy Dissipater (100-year) 150 m3/s 150 m3/s 150 m3/s Crest Elevation / Width of Overflow Weir EL. 2115 m / 60.0 m EL. 2085 m / EL. 2075 m / 60.0 m Total Length of Spillway 464 m 469 m 456 m Stilling Basin 20.0 m wide, 60.0 m long

(4) Outlet Facilities Item Case 1 Case 2 Case 3

Maximum Design Discharge 14.9 m3/s 13.0 m3/s 9.3 m3/s Minimum Design Discharge 3.6 m3/s 3.6 m3/s 2.8 m3/s Intake Structure Multi-step Girder Gate Type Tunnel Length for Conduit Pipe 909 m 751 m 751 m Steel Conduit Pipe Dia. 2.0 m, L=940 m Dia. 1.9 m, L=776 m Dia. 1.6 m, L=776 m

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(5) Diversion Facilities Item Case 1 Case 2 Case 3

Design Discharge 120 m3/s (30-year return period) Tunnel Section (Horseshoe) 2r = 4.0 m Longitudinal Gradient, Tunnel Length 1/41, 978 m 1/38, 914 m 1/38, 914 m Tunnel Inlet Elevation EL. 1988 m Crest of Temporary Cofferdam EL. 1998 m

(6) Layout Plan of Dam and Appurtenant Structures (in case of “Case 2”)

Figure 3.2.4 Layout Plan of Dam and Appurtenant Structures (in case of “Case 2”)

(7) Plan of Reservoir Area

Reservoir area at Dam Site E for each study case of Case 1, Case 2 and Case 3 are shown in Figure 3.2.5.

Case 1: Reservoir Area km2 Case 2: Reservoir Area km2 Case 3: Reservoir Area km2

Figure 3.2.5 Plan of Dam Body and Reservoir Area at Dam Site E



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3-7

3.2.8 Hydropower Generation

All of water discharge from the dam reservoir, including water for irrigation, etc., is assumed through the proposed intake, headrace and penstock and utilized for hydropower under the normal condition. Water from the tailrace of hydropower plant shall be separated into two direction, i.e., (1) discharge into the Salang River; and (2) conveyance to Paymonar of the new city.

Figure 3.2.6 Concept of the Hydropower at the Salang Dam

In this preliminary study, Dam site E is selected to further study the feasibility of hydropower development. The study results of hydropower planning are summarized in the following table.

Table 3.2.2 Hydropower Planning at the Salang Dam

Item Description Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Water Discharge to JSHP(*) (Qmax) 8.0 m3/s 4.0 m3/s Nil Dam Reservoir Normal Water Level EL = 2115 m EL = 2085 m EL = 2075 m Dam Foundation EL EL = 1965 m EL = 1965 m EL = 1965 m Dam Reservoir Storage Volume V = 121 MCM V = 62 MCM V = 43 MCM Tailwater Level EL = 1972 m EL = 1974 m EL = 1976 m

Water Discharge (m3/s) max 14.89 m3/s (June) - 12.96 m3/s (June) - 9.32 m3/s (June) - min 3.58 m3/s (Jan) 3.55 m3/s (Jan) 2.75 m3/s (Jan)

Effective Head (m) max 126.6 m (Aug) - 101.8 m (July) - 91.2 m (July) - min 104.3 m (Apr) 69.4 m (Apr) 72.5 m (Apr)

Output (MW) max 12.59 MW (June) 8.95 MW (June) 5.82 MW (June) min 2.82 MW (Jan) 1.99 MW (Feb) 1.59 MW (Jan)

Power Production (GWh/yr) 47.98 GWh/yr 33.87 GWh/yr 26.04 GWh/yr Plant Factor 43.5 % 43.2 % 51.1 % (*) JSHP: Jabul Saraj Hydropower Plant

Construction cost of the hydropower plant is estimated in accordance with the “cost estimation criteria at the F/S phase published in March 2005 by the New Energy Foundation in Japan. Construction cost of water course from intake structure to the penstock up to 16 meters from the powerhouse was included in the construction cost of Salang Dam.

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Electricity generated at the hydropower plant is planned to be transmitted and distributed to the nearby villages affected by the construction of the Salang Dam and also the neighboring towns and villages of the existing Jabul Saraj Hydropower Plant. Approximate length of transmission lines (33 to 66kV) of 5.0 km and distribution lines (3.3 to 6.6kV) of 10 km were roughly estimated. No consideration was made for the distribution lines to individual factories and houses in this study.

3.2.9 Implementation Schedule of Dam Construction

The implementation schedule is prepared as a reference to achieve the commencement of water distribution to the new city in Dehsabz by 2022.

With the assumption that a loan agreement between a donor(s) and the Government of Afghanistan is made in March 2013, the major items for project implementation including the construction stage and initial reservoir filling are scheduled as shown below. Considering the remaining time before the commencement of construction work, which is expected in 2016, it is too tight to carry out the preparation process.

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Pre-Construction Stage

Construction Stage

Initial Reservoir Fillingand Test Operation Stage

Operation andManagement Stage

2021 2022Item 2017 2018 2019 20202013 2014 2015 2016

Figure 3.2.7 Project Implementation Schedule for Salang Dam Construction

3.2.10 Implementation Organization

The implementing organization for the Salang Dam Development Project shall be responsible for the administration of construction works during the construction stage, and shall operate and manage all facilities related to the Salang Dam, including major repair/rehabilitation/improvement, such as dam body, appurtenant structures, hydropower station and road around the reservoir. Considering the scale of tasks of the implementing organization and capability of the existing governmental organizations, the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) seems to be the most suitable as the implementing organization.

3.3 Preliminary Planning of Water Conveyance

The route from the site of Salang Dam to the Paymonar Water Treatment Plant was verified by means of aerial photographs after submission of the Interim Report.

3.3.1 Options of Routes

In principle, there are two selectable options. Option-1 is the route in the western mountainous area. It is recommended by KMAMP as the possible route to secure gravity conveyance from dam to Paymonar. It is advantageous to reduce the running cost of water conveyance although difficult for construction. Option-2 is the route along the existing road (Charikar Road). Although it requires a booster pump station, the construction work is easier. The options are as shown in Figure 3.3.1.

Option 1 is divided further into two, i.e., Option 1-1 and Option-1-2, by the provision of hydraulic power plant. The concept of the options is shown in Figure 3.3.2.



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3-9

Option 1-1: Gravity conveyance via the west mountainous area (97km in length). To avoid extremely high pressure, a pressure reducing reservoir should be installed at 1,920m of altitude.

Option 1-2: Same as Option 1-1 but has a small-scale hydraulic power plant.

Option-2: Booster Station via Charikar Road (88km in length) and has a small-scale hydraulic power plant.

3.3.2 Comparison of Options

The dam site and the Paymonar Treatment Plant are at EL 1,975m and 1,812m respectively. The elevation difference will allow gravity conveyance. However, all routes should cross over Salang and Ghorband rivers, which are located at around 1,650m or less in altitude. Moreover, there is a hill (1,850m in altitude) before the treatment plant. This geographical feature makes the gravity conveyance difficult.

Small-scale hydraulic power plant contributes to increase of income for the water service provider.

GH=1975GH=1,920(Reducing reservoir)

SALANG DAM FRP 1,100 L=7kmGH=1850

GH=1,900 (Hydraulic power plant)FRP1,100 Option-1-2L=5.5km

DCIP 1800 L=90kmMontainous area Py W.T.P

GH=1,778DCIP 1600 L=91.5km

Option-1-1

GH=1975GH=1850

SALANG DAM Booster Station

　　 DCIP1,100 L=10.8km GH=1,700DCIP 1200

(Hydraulic power plant) Charical road L=24.2km Py W.T.P GH=1,775 GH=1,778

DCIP 1,500 L=53km

Option-1

Option-2

Figure 3.3.2 Conceptual Longitudinal Profile of Conveyance Line from Salang Dam

Figure 3.3.1 Water Conveyance Route from Salang Dam

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To convey the water by gravity, Option-1 requires special care against high internal pressure (3MPa) of pipeline. Ductile cast iron pipe (DCIP) and special high pressure type valves should be installed on the pipeline.

Since the route of Option 2 has a large elevation difference between the dam and the lowest point by 450m, water pressure should be controlled (relieved) and a booster pump should be installed to push the water up to the treatment plant. The pressure relief would be made at the hydraulic power plant.

3.3.3 Small-Scale Hydraulic Power Plant

The gravity power of water generates the electricity at a small-scale hydraulic power plant. The small-scale hydraulic power plant is expected to generate from 805kW to 2,586kW of electric power in Option 1-2 or Option 2.

3.3.4 Optimum Option

Although Option 2 is the most advantageous in terms of initial cost due to shorter length of pipeline, this option requires a higher O&M cost, especially the electricity for the booster station. Option 1 requires less O&M cost although the initial investment is higher.

In the simple accumulation of lifecycle cost, Option 1-2 is advantageous since a certain amount of revenue is expected. In case the discount rate of 8% is taken into account for the selection, Option 1-1 becomes the best option in cost.

3.4 Summary of Project Cost

This section summarizes the project cost required to supply water to the Dehsabz New City from the reservoir of Salang Dam. Summary of the project cost as the initial investment covers both direct and indirect costs intended for construction items. The construction items consist of dam and its appurtenant facilities, hydropower station, transmission and distribution facility for electricity generated at the Salang Dam, water conveyance facility, water treatment plant, water transmission pumps, water transmission mains, water transmission booster, water transmission reservoir, water distribution mains and water distribution branches.

Table 3.4.1 Project Cost (Initial Investment Cost) for Phase-3 with Salang Dam

Cost Item Financial Price (x 1,000 US$)

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Dam, Hydropower Generation and Water Conveyance 924,158 757,324 729,081 Construction Cost (Direct Cost) 690,230 569,246 547,877 Dam Construction 337,530 220,814 204,763 Hydro-power Station 29,834 25,566 20,248 Electricity Transmission & Distribution Facility 5,994 5,994 5,994 Water Conveyance 316,872 316,872 316,872 Indirect Cost 233,928 188,078 181,204 Water Treatment, Transmission and Distribution 739,108 739,108 739,108 Treatment Plant incl. Transmission Pumps 186,176 186,176 186,176 Transmission incl. Booster & Reservoir 190,052 190,052 190,052 Distribution Mains 60,480 60,480 60,480 Distribution Branches 302,400 302,400 302,400 Grand Total 1,663,266 1,496,432 1,468,189

Note: Cost of “Water Treatment, Transmission and Distribution” is roughly estimated because these facilities are out of the scope of this Study.

The operation and maintenance (O&M) cost is also estimated roughly for the three cases as summarized in Table 3.4.2. Thanks to the gravity conveyance, the unit cost per 1m3 of revenue water is about



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3-11

22 Afs/m3 for the three cases, half of 42 to 45 Afs/m3 of Phases 1 and 2 with the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project.

Table 3.4.2 Operation and Maintenance Cost for Phase-3 with Salang Dam

Cost Item Cost (x 1,000 US$/Year)

Remarks Case 1 Case 2 Case 3

Dam 1,013 662 614 Hydropower Station 524 490 448 Water Conveyance Facilities 126 126 126 Water Treatment, Transmission and Distribution 17,777 17,777 17,777 Grand Total 19,440 19,055 18,965 Water Supply Volume (MCM/y) 52.4 52.4 52.4 Unit cost per 1m3 of water supply volume (US$/m3) 0.37 0.36 0.36

Unit cost per 1m3 of billed water (revenue water) (US$/m3)

0.46 (23Afs/m3)

0.45 (22Afs/m3)

0.45 (22Afs/m3)

20% of leakage loss is considered.

3.5 Economic Evaluation

Economic analysis has been conducted to examine the economic viability of the water supply system to be developed with the Salang Dam as the Phase-3 of the water resources development and supply for KNC. This analysis covered the entire water supply system from its intake facility (dam reservoir) to the water service pipes at the end-users, although the distribution mains, branch pipelines and service pipes were out of the scope of this pre-feasibility study. Since the Salang Dam was designed as a multipurpose dam, benefits generated from electric power generation by the dam and the Jabul Saraj Hydropower Plant as well as water supply has been taken into consideration.

In estimating benefits from water supply, it was assumed, in the same way as the economic analysis for the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development Project, that the Kabul New City (KNC) will be developed as scheduled by being provided with water by tank lorries and bottled water even if the Salang Dam Development Project is not implemented. Regarding the benefits from power generation, it is assumed that the power generated from the Salang Dam is firstly provided to Jabul Saraj to make up for the power reduction of the hydropower plant, and that the rest of the power is transmitted/distributed to villages near the dam reservoir.

EIRRs of all the cases with 50Afs/m3 and 85Afs/m3 of willingness/affordability to pay are in the range of 6.7 to 7.6% for 50Afs/m3 and 8.0 to 9.1% for 85 Afs/m3 respectively, much lower than the opportunity cost of capital, 12%. The high construction cost of the high dam and the long conveyance pipeline in particular overwhelms the advantage of the low operation and maintenance cost by the gravity conveyance. In conclusion, the entire Water Phase-3 with the Salang Dam as the water source seems hardly economically feasible.

Table 3.5.1 Summary Results of Economic Analysis

Willingness/Affordability to Pay Case B/C (12% Discount) NPV (12% Discount) (Million

US$) EIRR

50 Afs/m3 Case 1 0.60 -293 6.7% Case 2 0.67 -219 7.6% Case 3 0.68 -211 7.6%

85 Afs/m3 Case 1 0.69 -229 8.0% Case 2 0.76 -156 9.0% Case 3 0.77 -147 9.1%

Regarding the three dam cases, the EIRRs of Cases 2 and 3 are meaningfully higher than that of Case 1, although still 3.0 to 4.4% lower than the target EIRR of 12%. The EIRRs of the two smaller dams are

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almost the same. If impacts on the downstream are considered, Case 2 that provides a certain discharge to the Jabul Saraj Hydropower Plant is preferred as the optimum plan.

3.6 Financial Evaluation

Following the economic analysis, a financial analysis was also conducted. Table 3.6.1 shows how much the FIRR is improved by inputting grant to the capital investment cost. According to this table, the FIRR increases to 1.4% in the case of 50Afs/m3 of water rate if 50% of the capital investment cost is covered by grant funds, although the FIRR of 2.0% is still lower than the target FIRR of 4%. To heighten the FIRR to 4%, about 68% of the investment cost of 1,194 million US$ has to be covered by grant funds. In the case of 85Afs/m3, 26% of the investment cost is enough. However, these grant amounts are as big as 810 and 310 million US$ respectively, and it is not easy to raise this big grant money from international donors and the Afghanistan Government in addition to the remaining loan money of some 380 and 880 million US$.

Table 3.6.1 FIRR Improvement by Grant Input Rate

Water Rate Input Grant Rate B/C NPV (Million US$) FIRR

50 Afs/m3

0% 0.85 -348 -1.2% 25% 0.98 -49 -0.2% 50% 1.14 249 1.4% 75% 1.37 548 5.1%

100% 1.71 846 -

85 Afs/m3

0% 1.40 962 2.5% 25% 1.61 1,261 3.9% 50% 1.87 1,559 6.4% 75% 2.25 1,858 12.2%

100% 2.82 2,156

3.7 Technical Evaluation

The geological condition of the selected dam site is suitable for dam construction. Dam construction materials are available around or at the vicinity of the dam site. No fatal obstruction, e.g., large active fault, had been found during the pre-feasibility study. Further detailed geologic survey is indispensable. Dam type and details of dam facilities shall be reconsidered and designed according to the detailed geological survey result.

The Ministry of Energy and Water has basic technologies on the operation and maintenance of dams and appurtenant facilities. It is recommended to improve its capacity on operation and maintenance in a few years before the completion of construction works, to keep the dam in good condition.

3.8 Initial Environmental Evaluation (IEE)

Environmental and social impacts have been assessed on the IEE level. Based on the population data obtained through interview survey, the affected population to be relocated for the created reservoir have been estimated as one to three thousand (several hundred families) depending on the size of the reservoir. Through the three local stakeholder meetings during the study period, the affected local people almost agreed with the dam project. They will agree provided the government will provide proper compensation, secure downstream water flow and supply electricity to the local people. The details for responding to their requests need to be discussed in the next study stage.



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4-1

CHAPTER 4 REVIEW OF FEASIBILITY STUDY ON GULBAHAR DAM PROJECT

4.1 Introduction

Under KMAMP, the Gulbahar Dam, which had been originally proposed by MEW, was evaluated as the first priority water resources development project over the Salang Dam following the Panjshir Fan Aquifer Development. A feasibility study on the Gulbahar Storage Dam Project that started in 2008 was completed in October 2010 by an Iranian consultant (Yekom Consulting Engineers) under a contract with MEW. JWT reviewed the study report very closely and also clarified several questions by sending a questionnaire to the Iranian consultant.

In addition to the review of the feasibility study, JWT also conducted a pre-feasibility study on the water conveyance from the dam to the Paymonar Water Treatment Plant.

4.2 Review of Feasibility Study on Gulbahar Dam

4.2.1 Location of Gulbahar Dam

The Gulbahar Dam is to be built for the purpose of domestic water supply of KNC, irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. To attain this aim, a feasibility study has been carried out by Yekom Consulting Engineers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the study results were reported in October 2010. The proposed site of the Gulbahar Dam is as shown in Figure 4.2.1. The dam is to be constructed on the Panjshir River Basin in the east of the Salang River Basin, and designed to provide water of 100MCM/y to Kabul New City, which is in accordance with the instructions of the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW).

Source: JICA Water Team

Figure 4.2.1 Location of the Proposed Gulbahar Dam


According to the Technical Report of the Feasibility Study, two types, concrete arch gravity type and embankment (Rock fill) type were proposed for the Gulbahar Dam, although there is no description about which is better. Both the cases were evaluated feasible in terms of B/C and the most economical normal water depth is estimated as 175m. Salient features of the Gulbahar Dam are summarized as below.

Proposed Dam site (35°9’33” N, 69°17’21” E)

Omraz hydrological station (Catchment Area: 2,223km

2)

Gulbahar hydrological station (Catchment Area: 3,530km

2)

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Table 4.2.1 Major Features of Gulbahar Storage Dam

Item Concrete Arch Gravity Embankment (Rock fill) Dam Crest Elevation EL. 1770 m EL. 1775 m Dam Height 185 m 190 m Crest Width 5 m 10 m

Volume of Dam Body Approx. 1,800,000 m3

Approx. 26,200,000 m3 Rock: 20,300,000 m3, Core: 4,700,000 m3,

Filter: 1,200,000 m3 Slope Gradient V:H = 1:0.4(Downstream) V:H = 1:2.5(Upstream) , V:H =1:3.0(Downstream) Reservoir Features Surface Area:9.42 km2, Storage Capacity: 490,390,000 m3, Dead Volume: 85,210,000 m3 Direct Construction Cost 431 million USD 512 million USD

EIRR Greater than 11.06% 11.06%

The Gulbahar Dam is a multipurpose dam, and three purposes are proposed as follows:

Table 4.2.2 Main Purposes of Gulbahar Storage Dam

Concrete Arch Gravity Contents Water Supply 100 MCM/y Irrigation Irrigation Area: 53,700 ha (69,810 ha with double cropping)

Hydropower Generation Power Plant Discharge: 69.5 m3/s Power Plant Capacity: 116,000 kW Annual Power Generation: 748,000 MWh

4.2.3 Hydrology

Daily discharge data at Omraz and Gulbahar hydrological stations have been collected, as shown in Figure 4.2.2, and long-term monthly discharges are as shown in Figure 4.2.3. The shape of hydrograph at the Gulbahar Hydrological Station is similar to that of the Bagh-i-lala Hydrological Station on the Salang River since water resources of both rivers are dominated by snow melted water.

Source: Gulbahar Storage Dam Project Feasibility Studies, October 2010

Fig- Observed Discharge

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Oct

.

Nov

.

Dec

.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar

.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Aver

age

Mon

thly

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

Gulbahar (Panjisir)

Bagh-i-lala (Salang)

Data source: Afghanistan Metrological Authority

Figure 4.2.2 Daily Discharge Trend on Panjshir River (1980)

Figure 4.2.3 Long-Term Monthly Discharge (Observed Data)

The discharge data at the Gulbahar Hydrological Station corresponds to the inflow to the dam. Although average annual runoff depth at the Gulbahar dam site is 474mm, which is smaller than the 668mm of Bagh-i-lala in the Salang River, catchment area of the dam is approximately ten times larger than that of the Salang Dam, hence the Panjshir River Basin has a sufficient quantity of water resources.

10/1

River: Panjshir Catchment Area: 3,530 km2

(Panjshir)



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4-3

4.2.4 Review of Dam Operation

As an indicator for the water security level in drought, fulfillments factor were employed in this Iranian study. Irrigation water is 74% satisfied, power plant is 73% satisfied and water supply to KNC is 100% satisfied by the proposed dam operation. Fulfillment factors of irrigation and hydropower would decrease under dry condition, which may cause an unfairness of water usage among stakeholders. It is necessary to discuss this matter with the stakeholders and decide on the extraction rules or policies in case of severe drought condition.

4.2.5 Geologic Condition

(1) Alternative Dam Sites and Quaternary Faults

Five alternative sites (A, B, C, D and E) were nominated along the Panjshir River. Figure 4.2.5 shows locations of the five sites and faults nearby. Since dam sites A, B and C are located above the Panjshir Fault, and these areas are covered by serpentine and limestone, they are not so suitable for dam site. On the other hand, the alternative dam sites D and E are 1km or more away from Panjshir Fault, and then, massive and hard gneiss is distributed over this area.

Dam Site E was selected as the optimum dam site due to the high water storage efficiency. However, this dam site E is located on the northwestern extension line of Sorubi Fault (Quaternary fault), and the downstream stretch of dam site E has straight shaped valley. The straight valley is one of the geomorphic characteristics made by Quaternary fault. These facts seem to show that it is premature judgment to deny the existence of Quaternary fault in the dam site E.

Figure 4.2.4 Upstream View of “Gulbahar Dam Site E”

Proterozoic hard gneiss crops out, and makes steep gorge.

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Figure 4.2.5 Proposed Dam Sites and Quaternary Fault around the Gulbahar Dam-Site

In view of the issues on the Quaternary fault, the present geologic survey data is insufficient to agree with the conclusion that Dam Site E is the best site for Gulbahar Dam. Further detailed geological surveys are necessary to determine the optimum dam site. The range between the dam sites D and E may be worth the further geologic study site.

Hard and massive gneiss crops out on the right bank and left bank of the dam site E. Bedrock of dam site E seems to be good for dam foundation, but the result of seismic prospection and drilling survey do not show so good condition. Drilling cores show that there should be faults at the river bed and right bank of dam site E. Furthermore these faults might be Quaternary fault extended from Sorubi Fault.

(2) Land Slide

Panjshir Fault runs in reservoir area along the Panjshir River. There is the tendency of occurrence of landslide and rock collapse along the Quaternary fault in general, but landslide survey around the reservoir was not executed. If large scaled landslide exists in the reservoir area, countermeasure against landslide is necessary. Landslide survey is therefore necessary in the early survey stage.

(3) Construction Material

Construction materials of dam body can be obtained from the neighboring area of dam site and reservoir.

Panjshir Fault

N

Sorubi Fault

0 5km

A

B

D

E

C

LEGEND Quaternary fault （Thrust fault）（Strike-slip fault） Proposed dam-site Elevation of top of dam （EL.1770m）



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4-5

(4) Recommendation of Further Investigations

It might be said that the Feasibility Study of Gulbahar Dam is premature because the problems of Quaternary fault and landslides in the reservoir are not cleared. Therefore, it is recommended to conduct the Quaternary faults survey and landslide survey in the reservoir area.

4.2.6 Dam Type

Two alternative dam types; namely, embankment dam and arch gravity dam, were selected because of availability of construction material, durability and smaller construction cost.

(1) Arch Gravity Dam

Static and dynamic loads are considered in structural calculations. Static loads include dead load, hydraulic load under normal or flood conditions, forces from flowing water changing direction, uplift, forces from ice expansion, and internal stresses caused by temperature changes. Dynamic loads include earthquake-induced forces, blast-induced forces, fluttering nappe forces, or forces caused by the impact of ice, debris, or boats. Finite element method is adopted for stability calculation of body and abutments for selected dam site under static loads condition. A finite element model consists of portion of dam body and portion of rock mass around dam body.

Source: Technical Report, Gulbahar Storage Dam Project Feasibility Studies, October 2010, Ministry of Energy and Water

Figure 4.2.6 Plan and Profile of Arch Gravity Dam for Gulbahar Dam

(2) Embankment Dam

The dam body was designed as Center Core Type Rockfill Dam under different loading conditions. Standard safety factors of dam according to the U.S. Corp of Engineers were adopted. Stability analysis against sliding in different loading and conditions were carried out. Seepage analysis was also carried out for steady seepage condition. Analysis of seepage and slope stability was done using two softwares to assure earthquake condition different levels of lateral acceleration corresponding to various frequencies and definitions were applied.

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Source: Technical Report, Gulbahar Storage Dam Project Feasibility Studies, October 2010, Ministry of Energy and Water

Figure 4.2.7 Plan and Typical Cross Section of Embankment Dam for Gulbahar Dam

4.2.7 Review on Dam Structure of Gulbahar Dam

According to the Technical Report, both the Concrete Arch Gravity Type and the Embankment (Center Cored Rockfill) Type are evaluated as feasible in terms of B/C and the most economical normal water depth is estimated as 175m.

Both types of dam structure were analyzed by the proper way and proper conditions, such as load, safety factors and stability calculations.

Considering the high procurement cost of cement, Embankment Dam (Rock-fill Dam) has an advantage. On the other hand, Arch Gravity Dam has an advantage in terms of low cost. Further detailed study will be necessary to determine the final dam type.

Considering possibility of presence of Quaternary fault at dam site E, detailed geologic survey shall be further carried out to determine the final dam type. Especially, detailed geologic survey at abutments is necessary to study the Arch Gravity Dam.

In case the presence of Quaternary fault is confirmed at/near dam site, selecting the Arch Gravity Dam is risky because it is weak against deformation of bedrock. Besides the study on the Embankment Dam (Rock-fill Dam), the Gravity Concrete Dam shall be reconsidered.

4.2.8 Environmental and Social Considerations

MEW prepared two reports for environmental and social considerations, Environmental Studies which corresponds to EIA and Social Studies mainly focusing on involuntary resettlement.

(1) Environmental Studies (EIA)

The Environmental Study Report was issued in November 2010. However, the EIA study conducted in the Feasibility Study seems not to comply with world standards; for example, there is hardly any



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quantitative/qualitative description on predicting and assessing the impacts in the report. In addition, the baseline survey seems to be limited around the project site without considering the need of impact analysis for the downstream area. According to the report, it has been concluded that the project can be environmentally sound and sustainable when the mitigation measures are adopted; however, it is recommended that the impacts should be assessed more carefully using objective survey results collected from a broader area covering the downstream.

(2) Social Studies

The Social Study Report was also issued in November 2010. Since the affected population by the proposed dam reservoir in the report was unclear, JWT had in June 2012 updated the number of relocation houses to about 2,000 with 13,000 of population.

The Social Study Report had presented the outline of the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) with Resettlement Policy Framework in accordance with the World Bank’s safeguard policies. However, the estimated population to be relocated is deemed to be larger than the actual one. JWT has updated the estimation to be about two thousand households with thirteen thousand populations. As mentioned in the Social Study Report, the RAP shall be revised and finalized in the future based on a more detailed survey that shall include compensation. It is also expected to revise the number based on the detailed survey.

4.3 Preliminary Design of Water Conveyance

4.3.1 Route and Profile

Two options of route from the dam site to Paymonar are shown in Figure 4.3.1.

Option-1 is planned along Charikar Road and total length is about 81km. Option-2 is planned along Sayad and Bagram roads and total length is about 89km.

Option-1 is selected as optimum route because of length and difficulty of more pipelines for the route of Option-2.

The ground elevations of the dam site and the Paymonar Water Treatment Plant are +1,685m and +1,778m respectively. Since the Paymonar area is higher than the dam site, a booster station is necessary to convey water to the treatment plant from the dam.

Since there is a hill (ground elevation: +1,850m) on the route before arrival at Paymonar Water Treatment Plant, a booster pump station shall be located at just before the hill. The booster pump station requires an area of around 3.0ha. The route should be, therefore, divided into two sections, i.e., gravity and pumping sections.

The longitudinal profile is provided in Figure

P

Figure 4.3.1 Location of Water Conveyance Route from Gulbahar Dam

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4.3.2.

Figure 4.3.2 Longitudinal Profile of Selected Water Conveyance Route from Gulbahar Dam

4.3.2 Conveyance Pipe and Valves

For the gravity section between Gulbahar Dam and the booster pump station, 2,100mm is appropriate for diameter of pipe. For the other gravity section just before Paymonar Treatment Plant, 1,200mm is good for diameter of pipe. For the pumping section, 1,500mm diameter pipeline is selected as the optimum diameter because of less lifecycle cost. In view of high pressure and easiness of construction, ductile cast iron pipe (DCIP) is selected for piping material.

Gate valves, wash-out valves and air valves should be installed at appropriate locations according to longitudinal profile of pipeline.

4.3.3 Preliminary Cost and O&M Estimate

The direct construction cost and the annual operation and maintenance cost were estimated at 335 million US$ and 12 million US$ respectively.

4.3.4 Initial Environmental Evaluation

Environmental and social impacts were assessed on the IEE level for two options of water conveyance line. Since both options are to lay the pipeline under the existing road, significant environmental impacts are not expected for both options.

feasibility study on urgent water …unavailability of local water sources. the panjshir fan aquifer...

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