fears, vulnerabilities, and precautions over covid-19: a

1

The Program on Governance and Local Development

Fears, Vulnerabilities, and Precautions over Covid-19: A Report on Citizens’ Experiences in Malawi and Zambia

2020-2021

2 3

The Program on Governance and Local Developme-nt is a research program based at the University of Gothenburg, originally founded in 2013 at Yale University by Program Director, Professor Ellen Lust. GLD focuses on the local factors driving governan-ce and development. The program is dedicated to international collaboration and scientifically rigo-rous, policy-relevant research in an effort to promote human welfare globally. Program findings are made available to the international and domestic communities through academic publica-tions, policy briefs, public presentations, and social media, as well as on-the-ground workshops in cooperation with local partners.

About GLD

Contact: Program on Governance and Local Development

Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg

Box 711, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden

Visiting address: Sprängkullsgatan 19, Gothenburg

[email protected]

IntroductionThis report provides key findings on the local

impact of Covid-19 in Malawi and Zambia. In

March 2020, Zambia and Malawi reported

their first cases of Covid-19. Both governments

responded by restricting non-es-

sential travel, banning large public

gatherings, and establishing emergency

committees to try to contain the pandemic at

a national level. These national-level responses

were important, but they did not fully reflect how

individuals and the communities they reside in

responded to Covid-19.

The GLD project, “Developing a Locally Roo-

ted Approach to Covid-19 Response,” sought to

explore citizens’ responses at a local level. In-

itiated in March 2020, it aimed to explore how

issues such as fear of infection, income loss,

social stigma, trust in authorities, and access to

information affect individuals’ daily lives during

the pandemic. To do so, GLD drew on contact

information from respondents gathered in ear-

lier surveys to conduct telephone interviews.

These were implemented In collaboration with

the Institute for Public Opinion and Research

(IPOR) in Malawi and the Ubuntu Research and

Rural Development Company in Zambia. These

interviews allowed GLD to map needs, resour-

ces, and governance practices at the individu-

al, household, and community levels, providing

timely information to government officials, de-

velopment specialists, scholars, and the gene-

ral public.

This report presents infographics of the key

findings from the Malawi and Zambia surveys

(2020-2021). These were originally prepared

and presented in collaboration with IPOR in

Malawi and the Southern African Institute for

Policy and Research (SAIPAR) in Zambia. The

appendix provides more details on the metho-

dology of the study. We hope that the findings

presented in this report continue to lend ac-

tionable insights and are happy to answer any

questions at [email protected].

Acknowledgements: �

This report was supported by the Swedish Research Council Recruitment Grant (Swedish Research Council –E0003801),

PI: Pam Fredman; the Social Institutions and Governance: Lessons from Sub-Saharan Africa grant (Swedish Research

Council–2016-01687), PI: Ellen Lust; The Governance Challenge of Urbanization grant (FORMAS –2016-00228), PI: Ellen Lust.

We would also like to thank the Department of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg for their ongoing support,

and Rose Shaber-Twedt for edting this report.

MFears - p.6

Trust in Authorities - p. 9

Vulnerabilities - p. 10

Response to Illness - p. 14

Social Reactions - p. 17

Economic Impact - p. 18

Malawi Reports2020

4 5

Key Findings from Malawi

The following are summaries of the 1st GLD-IPOR Covid-19 Survey. Data was

collected from May 7 to June 2, 2020, with a final sample size of N = 4,658. The

map below shows the number of observations in each district. More

information about sampling can be found in the appendix.

Number of Observation Per District

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

6 7

Covid-19 FearsMalawians Don't Fear Covid-19 as much as Hunger, Loss of Access to Healthcare and Stigma

The majority of Malawians are not very worried about becoming infected with Covid-19. The percentage varies across districts, with the greatest amount of concern in Chipita and Karonga on the Tanzanian border, but most are not very worried.

Malawians over 55 years old are the least likely to be very worried about becoming infected, even though they face the greatest risk from infection.

18-35 yo 36-55 yo 56+

38 16 19 26 0 37 18 16 28 0 32 17 18 31 0

Very Worried Somewhat Worried Only a Little Worried Not Worried at All

Not Sure

30 36 42 48 54 60

Highest Percent Who are Very Worried About Becoming Infected are in the North

Percent Who Are Very Worried About Becoming Infected Grouped by Age1

Note: All survey questions are listed at the end of this report.

Majority of Malawians Fear They Will Go Hungry Due to

Covid-192

82.74%

16.71%0.55%

Fear They Will Go Hungry

Do Not Fear They Will Go Hungry

Don't Know/Refuse to Answer

Malawians in the Southern region are the most likely to fear going hungry.

Malawians with higher education levels are less likely to fear going hungry.

Older Malawians are less likely to fear going hungry.

80

60

40

20

0

Chitipa

Karong

a

Mzimba

Nkhata

bay

Rumph

i

Dedza

Dowa

Kasun

gu

Lilon

gwe

Mchinj

i

Nkhota

kota

Ntcheu

Balaka

Blantyr

e

Chikwaw

a

Mango

chi

Mulanje

Nsanje

Zomba

About 60% of Malawians Fear Healthcare Will Be More

Difficult to Access Due to Covid-193

Note the higher percentage in Chitipa and Karonga.

About 76% of Malawians Believe Others Will Think Poorly of

Them if They Have Covid-194

Will Think Poorly of Me Will Not Think Poorly of Me

Covid-19: Trust in Authorities

Malawians have a lot of trust in their healthcare providers (64% Head of District Hospitals) and are unlikely to say they do not trust healthcare providers at all (6% Head of District Hospitals)

Malawians Trust Health Professionals Most with Covid-19

Crisis, Wary It Will Become a Political Football 1

80

60

40

20

0

Head of DistrictHospital

The WHO Government Special CabinetCommittee on

Covid-19

Perc

ent

How much do you trust each of the following?

A lot

Somewhat

Just a little

Not at all

Unsure

No Answer

Malawians Recognize Importance of Medical Expertise

Survey Experiment[1] Shows That When Directives Come from the Head of a District Hospital:

Do you think the head of the district hospital best undertands

the novel coronavirus?2

Yes 83.59% No 16.41%

Malawians are more likely to comply with the directive (compared to directives from a religious leader).Malawians are more likely to believe this person has the right to make such a request (compared to a religious leader).

8 9

Grey districts do not

have sufficient data.

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Support of Presidential Election Occurring as Scheduled

75% of Malawians Think Presidential Election Should

be Held as Scheduled3



Looking Ahead: Malawians Fear Corruption in Covid-19 Management and Think the Presidential Election Should be Held as Scheduled

67% of Malawians Fear Corruption in Covid-19

Management4

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Percent Who Fear Corruption in Covid-19 Management

[1] –Kao, Kristen; Lust, Ellen; Dulani, Boniface; Ferree, Karen E.; Harris, Adam and Metheney, Erica Ann. (2020). "The ABCs of Covid-19 Prevention in Malawi: Authority, Benefits, and Costs of Compliance," World Development, 137 (105167). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105167

10 11

Covid-19 Vulnerabilities

Percent with Insufcient Income

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Household Density = # of people in house/ # of rooms in housePresence of Household Member > 55 Years OldMulti-Generational Household = Children and Someone > 55 years Not Enough Water to Wash Hands FrequentlyNo Soap/Sanitizer Within the HomePre-existing Health Conditions

This report examines 6

vulnerabilities to Covid-19

0 1 2 3+

Distribution of Number of

Vulnerabilites Per Household

82% of Malawians Say Income Doesn't Meet Needs, Opens Door

to Covid-19 Vulnerabilities1

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20302941?via%3Dihub

Vulnerabilities in the Home:

Need for soap is greater in Southern and Central Regions than in Northern Region.

Lack of soap is associated with insufficient income.

Percent Without Soap/Santizer

6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34

Lack of Soap is the Greatest Challenge to Frequent Handwashing in Malawi

94% of Malawians have access to enough water for their entire family

to wash hands frequently.5

26% of Malawians do NOT have access to soap or sanitizer to wash

hands.6

Dark grey areas had insufficient data.

About 24% of Malawians live in a Household with Someone with a Pre-existing Condition4

About 23% of Malawians live in a Multi-Generational Household2

About 34% of Malawians live in a Household with More than 2 People Per Room3

Prevalance of Self-Reported Symptoms Varies Greatly by District7

Karonga, Mchinji, and Mangochi have the highest percentages of self-reported cases, each around 25%.

In addition to having some of the highest percentages of self-reported cases, Mchinji and Mangochi report nearly 30% of households do not have soap/sanitizer in the home.

Percent Reporting Symptoms

0 6 12 18 24 30

Dark grey areas had insufficient data.

12 13

Covid-19 Response to IllnessAre Malawians Waiting Until Symptoms are Prevalent to Take Precautions?

Percent

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Highest in Chitipa (67%), Mulanje (64%) and Nsanje (64%).

About 1 in 3 Malawians Say They Would Not Stay Away from Public Gatherings if They Had Covid-19 Symptoms

Yes 54%No 31%

No Answer 14%

Would you stay away from public

gatherings if you were sick?1

Willingness to Avoid Public Gatherings

NORTHERN REGIONChitipa

KarongaMzimba

NkhatabayRumphi

CENTRAL REGIONDedzaDowa

KasunguLilongwe

MchinjiNkhotakota

NtcheuSOUTHERN REGION

BalakaBlantyre

ChikwawaMangochi

MulanjeNsanjeZomba

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Percent with Self-Reported Symptoms

Karonga, Mchinji, Mangochi, and Chitipa Have Highest

Percentage of Self-Reported Covid-19 Symptoms2

Despite high levels of self-reported symptoms and lack of access to soap, only about a third of the Malawians in the Mangochi district are willing to avoid public gatherings when sick. Furthermore, 55% of people feel they have no one they could count on for help if they got sick.

A Closer Look at the Mangochi District

14 15

45% of Malawians Report Not Having Someone

to Help Them if Sick from Covid-193

Where are Malawians Getting Help?

Northern districts have lowest percent of people with no one to

help them.

Percent Without Someone to Help Them

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Family Neighbor

Village Head Religious Leader

52% 33%

27% 33%

Covid-19 Social ReactionsStigma, Stereotypes, and Symptoms Affect Malawians' Response

77%

19%4%

Yes

No

No Answer

Stigma

Malawians are Less Likely

to Help Those with Covid-

19 Symptoms than Those

with Other Problems2

Symptoms

3 out of 4 Malawians Fear

Others Would Think

Poorly of Them if They

Were Suspected to Have

Covid-191 .

Stereotypes

Malawians are More Likely to Think that Zambians and Malawians of Indian Descent Have Covid 19 and Are Less Likely to Help Them.

16 17

Covid-19 Economic Impact

81.63%

6.37%10.87%

1.13%

Neither

Lost Job

Reduction inHours

Don'tKnow/Refuseto Answer

Malawians Experiencing Increasing Economic Stress, Receiving Little Aid

Percent Experiencing a Reduction in Income

30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84Dark grey areas had insufficient data

Majority are experiencing reduction in income across Malawi.

While Malawians see a loss of income, only about 17% have lost a job or are working

reduced hours. 2

Number of Malawians experiencing a reduction in income varies greatly by district, ranging from 35% (Karonga) to 82%

(Nsanje).1

In the Northern region, fewer Malawians report a reduction in income.

Malawians Worry about Future Economic Hardships 5,6

NORTHERN REGION

Chitipa

Karonga

Mzimba

Nkhatabay

Rumphi

CENTRAL REGION

Dedza

Dowa

Kasungu

Lilongwe

Mchinji

Nkhotakota

Ntcheu

SOUTHERN REGION

Balaka

Blantyre

Chikwawa

Mangochi

Mulanje

Nsanje

Zomba

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Fear of Loss of Future Income Fear of Future Hunger

18 19

ZPercent in Need ofAssistance Due to Covid-19

30 36 42 48 54 60

Percent Who ReceivedAssistance Given They Had

Need

0 10 20 30 40 50

Number of Malawians in need of assistance due to Covid-19 varies greatly across districts, ranging

from 29% to 60%3.

Despite high numbers of people in need, in most districts, people are not

receiving assistance4.

There are three notable exceptions: Balaka (46%), Zomba (44%), and Karonga (24%).

In the remaining districts, only 9.33% are receiving assistance. Dark grey areas had insufficient data Dark grey areas had insufficient data

Despite High Levels of Need, Few Receive Aid

Fears - p. 24

Response to Illness - p. 27

Trust in Authorities- p. 29

Vulnerabilities and Aid - p. 32

Precautionary Behviours- p. 35

Economic Impact - p. 37

Community Restrictions - p.39

Zambia Reports

2021Needs and Assistance - p. 41

Life Changes and Fears - p. 44

Social Challenges and Precautions - p. 47

Community Restrictions - p. 51

2020

20 21

Key Findings from Lusaka and

the Zambia-Malawi Border

The following are summaries of the 1st and 2nd GLD-SAIPAR Covid-19 Surveys.

Data was collected from July 2 to August 13, 2020 and from November 26,

2020 to January 22, 2021. The final sample sizes were N = 2142 and N = 1782

respectively. The maps below shows the number of observations in each

province. More information about sampling can be found in the appendix.

1st GLD-SAIPAR Covid-19 Survey: Number of Observations Per Province

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

2nd GLD-SAIPAR Covid-19 Survey: Number of Observations Per Province

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

22 23

Fears of Hunger,2 Income Loss,3 and Increased Crime4 Widespread

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Fear Hunger Fear IncomeReduction

Fear Crime andor Violence

Perc

ent

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82

The Northern and Eastern Districts have the highest share of people who fear going hungry due to Covid-19.

Zambians with higher education are less likely to fear going hungry but more likely to fear income reduction due to Covid-19 than those with little or no education.

Of people who fear crime and violence, 31% only fear crime, 4% only fear violence and 65%

fear both.5



Zambians above the age of 55 are less likely than younger people to fear going hungry, or experience crime or violence as a result of Covid-19.

24 25

Covid-19: Fears

Higher Education

People with higher education are more worried than people with little or no education about becoming infected.

Knowledge about Infection

People who know how Covid-19 is transmitted are more worried about becoming infected.

People above 55 are less worried than younger people about becoming infected with Covid-19.

People Over 55

Nearly 2 out of 3 Fear Infection1

Most are very worried about becoming infected with Covid-19. The share of people who are very worried varies across age groups, provinces, educational levels, and knowledge about Covid-19.

ZAMBIANS FEAR INFECTION, HUNGER AND CRIME, BUT THESE FEARS MAY INSPIRE PRECAUTIONARY BEHAVIOR

The Eastern Province has the highest share of people very worried about infection.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76



About 60% of Zambians Fear Others will Think Poorly of

Them if They have Covid-196

Does Fear of Covid-19 Infection Prompt Precautionary

Behavior?7

We find those who are very worried about Covid-19 infection are more likely to take precautionary measures than those who are less worried.

MOST ZAMBIANS HAVE HELP IF SICK, BUT MANY ENGAGE IN BEHAVIORS THAT RISK SPREADING ILLNESS

90% of Zambians in our Sample Report NOT having Covid-19 Symptoms, but Prevalence Differs Significantly across

Provinces1

Covid-19: Response to Illness

Central

Lusaka

Eastern

Northern

Muchinga

13%

9.4%

8.2%

8%

6.4

65% of Those with Symptoms Visited a Health

Clinic2

Were Engaging with Family and Friends

Were Visiting Public Spaces

40%

For those with symptoms, when they were sick...

Those with Symptoms Less Likely to Take Measures Against Spreading Illness Compared to Expected Behavior of Those

without Symptoms2,3

23%

Would Still Engage with Family and Friends

For those without symptoms, if they were sick...

18%

13%

Would Visit Public Spaces

26 27

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Covid-19: Trust in Authorities



A WIDE VARIETY OF LEADERS CAN PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19

High Confidence that Government and Public Health

System can Handle Covid-191,2

The Northern and Muchinga provinces have the highest confidence in the government's and the public health system's ability to handle Covid-19



50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Share who have confidence in the government's ability to handle Covid-19

Share who have confidence in the public health system's ability to handle Covid-19

The Central Province has the highest share of people with self-reported symptoms but the lowest share of people who say that they would avoid family/friends and stay away from public spaces.

The number of individuals with self-reported Covid-19 symptoms in our sample is 198 while the number who report to have no Covid-19 symptoms is 1984.

Results Raise Questions: Do people imagine it is easier to distance from friends, family and others when sick than it actually is? Or are those who are less careful more likely to be sick?

Most Zambians have At Least One Person to Help Them if

They are Sick... 4

Family Neighbor

Village Head Religious Leader

70% 32%

22% 42%

But 1 in 4 Zambians cannot count on any of

these people

28 29

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Government Chief ReligiousLeader

ProvincialMinister

District HealthOfce

Perc

ent

How much do you trust each of the following?

A lot Somewhat Just a little Not at all

Haven't Heard Enough to Say

High Trust in Authorities Overall, but Lowest for the

Provincial Minister3

District HealthOffice

Religious Leader

Chief

None

Nearly 90% of Respondents think the District Health office knows Covid-19 best.

People with little or no education have greater trust in the government and their chief than those with more education.

Despite Trust in Authorities, Many Fear Politicians Will

Exploit Covid-19

71 % of Zambians fear that politicians will use Covid-19 to gain power or to enrich themselves6

Yes No Don't Know/Refuse To Answer

Zambians: Chiefs and District Health Offices have More Right than Religious Leaders to Request Covid-19

Restrictions5

Has Right Will Comply

However, we find that ONLY Chiefs gain extra compliance, compared to religious leaders.

30 31

Covid-19 Vulnerabilities and Aid

41.15%

25.81%

17.00%

16.04%

0

1

2

3+

Distribution of Number of Vulnerabilities Per Household

28% Live in a Household with Someone with a Pre-

existing Condition4

Almost 60% Have at Least One Covid-19 Vulnerability

20 % Live in a Multi-

Generational Household2

24 % Live in a Household with More than 2 People

Per Room3

VULNERABILITIES FAR OUTPACE ASSISTANCE

Household Density = # of people in house/ # of rooms in house1

Presence of Household Member > 55 Years Old2

Multi-Generational Household = Children and Someone > 55 years 2

Not Enough Water to Wash Hands Frequently3

No Soap/Sanitizer Within the Home4

Pre-existing Health Conditions5

6 Sources of Vulnerability to Covid-19

Those who lack sufficient income are also more likely to have large numbers of people per room; lack water, soap and sanitizer; and have pre-existing health conditions.

68% of Zambians Say Income Does NOT Meet Needs7

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76

Nearly 1 in 10 Lack Access To Sufficient Water, Soap and Hand Sanitizer

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Families in the Eastern Province are most likely to report shortage of water.

Those in the Eastern Province are also most likely to lack access to soap or sanitizer.

9% do NOT have access to enough water for their family to wash

hands frequently.4

10% do NOT have access to soap or sanitizer to wash

hands.5

The Eastern Province faces the greatest challenges regarding access to water, soap and sanitizer.

32 33

Needed AssistanceEastern

MuchingaLusakaCentral

Northern

Received AssistanceEastern

MuchingaLusakaCentral

Northern

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Percent

Those who have higher education are more likely than those with less education to receive assistance, although only equally likely to need it.

43 % of Zambians in Need of Assistance; Only 16% Report Receiving Help

More Educated Benefit Most

Significant Gap between Need and Assistance8,9

Family and Friends Remain Single Most Frequent Source

of Assistance10

Family/ Friends

31%

Healthcare Worker

18%

Employer

15%

Member of ParliamentLocal CSO/NGO

Religious Organization

Local Councillor

9%

8% 7% 7%

Higher Numbers of People

Attending Funerals and

Religious Services Likely

Reflects Social Expectations

We find that those who are very

worried about being infected with

Covid-19 are taking more

precautionary measures than

those who worry less.

Covid-19: Precautionary BehaviorZAMBIANS KNOW PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES ARE IMPORTANT, BUT SOCIAL PRESSURE MAY MAKE THEM HARD TO IMPLEMENT

Most Zambians taking Measures against Covid-19

57% less likely to go to work outside their home

77% less likely to attend religious service

85% less likely to visit family & friends

81% less likely to attend funerals

92% more likely to wash hands

34 35

Almost Half of Respondents Think It Is Difficult to Not Gather in Groups

Difcult to Stay Home Except for Essentialsby Province

30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Difcult to Avoid Gathering in Groups byProvince

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Poses the QuestionDoes social pressure to say they would get tested mask stigma associated with Covid-19?

TA92% of Zambians say that they would get tested if they had Covid-19 symptoms and test was given for free.

But only 50% say that they think all or most others would get tested under the same conditions.

Most Zambians Say They Would be Tested if Sick but Doubt Others Would...

Who Was Working Before Covid-19?

Cash Job Non-Cash Job No Job

Men

Women

Covid-19 Economic Impact

Data from the 2019 LGPI[1] shows that, when compared to men, women are half as likely to have a cash paying job and almost 1.5 times as likely to not have a job.

WOMEN AND THE MORE HIGHLY EDUCATED EXPERIENCING MORE ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO COVID-19

How has Covid-19 Impacted Zambians Financially?

20% 42%

27% 44%16%

14%

Lost Hours1 Lost Income2Lost Job1

Women are half as likely to have a job compared to men. This means... While it seems that men and women are having similar experiences regarding lost jobs and lost income, in reality, women are experiencing more negative financial impacts from Covid-19.

36 37

Higher Educated3 Zambians More Likely Experience Reduced Hours and Loss of Income

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Little or NoSchool

Primary School SecondarySchool

PostSecondary

School

35 40 44 48Perc

ent L

ost I

ncom

e D

ue to

Cov

id-1

9

Education Level

Higher educated individuals are more likely to have cash-

paying4 and hourly work that allows for a reduction in hours.

Something to Think About

How to Cite LGPI Data: [1]- Lust, Ellen; Kao, Kristen; Landry, Pierre F.; Harris, Adam; Dulani, Boniface; Metheney, Erica; Nickel, Sebastian; Carlitz, Ruth; Gakii Gatua; Josephine, Jöst; Prisca, Mechkova; Valeryia, Mujenja; Maxim Fison; Tengatenga, John; Grimes, Marcia; Ahsan Jansson, Cecilia; Alfonso, Witness; Nyasente, Dominique; Ben Brahim, Nesrine; Jordan, Jenna; Bauhr, Monika; Boräng, Frida; Ferree, Karen; Hartmann, Felix; and Lueders, Hans. “The Local Governance and Performance Index (LGPI) 2019: Kenya, Malawi, Zambia.” The Program on Governance and Local Development: 2020. www.gld.gu.se

Covid-19 Community Restrictions

Closed

Marketplaces1

ONLY ABOUT HALF OF CITIZENS REPORT THEIR COMMUNITIES IMPLEMENT RESTRICTIONS; BUT WHEN THEY DO, THEY SAY THEY ARE ENFORCED

We Asked Respondents about Three Types of Community Restrictions

Curfews2 Limits on Large

Gatherings3

51% of Respondents Reported Their Community Imposed at Least One Restriction

None 1 2 3

49 28 158Pe

rcen

tage

Breakdown of the Number of Restrictions Taken by Communities

22% 23% 36%

Percentage of Communities Imposing Each Restriction

38 39

http://glu.gu.se

Few Communities have Curfews or Gathering Restrictions, but Most are Enforced

Gatherings

Yes No Unsure

Curfew

Yes No Unsure

Are Restrictions

Enforced?4

Citizens View Local and National Leaders as Requesting Measures, but Local Leaders are Primarily Responsible for

Enforcing Restrictions5

Local Non-State 21% 28%

Local State 24 44%

National State 51% 22%

Other Response 5% 6%

Leader Type Request Enforce

Local Non-State 18% 15%

Local State 39% 60%

National State 36 18%

Other Response 6% 7%

Leader Type Request Enforce

CURFEWLARGE

GATHERINGS

MOST NEEDS UNMET, BUT IMPORTANT URBAN-RURAL DIFFERENCES IN NATURE OF NEEDS AND PERCEPTIONS OF FAIRNESS SUGGEST NEED FOR DIFFERENT APPROACHES

Covid-19 Needs and Assistance

Overall, 2 out of 3 Zambians surveyed reported

needing assistance.1

No 25%

RuralUrban

Yes 75%

Yes 61%

No 39%

Urban vs. Rural Reported Needs

Rural respondents are less likely to report significant life changes due to Covid-19, but more likely to report needing assistance.

Perhaps this is because rural areas had greater needs for assistance even before the pandemic?

40 41

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Masks Medicine Soap/handsanitizer

Food Money

% y

es

If you needed ... did you recieve it?

Urban Rural

Over half of those who need assistance do not receive it; rural respondents were half as likely to report receiving assistance with food and money than urban respondents.

Rural dwellers report needing masks and soap about twice

as often as urban dwellers.2

Money

Urban 40% Rural 36%

Handsanitizer/soapUrban 19% Rural 40%

Food

Urban 9% Rural 7%

Masks Urban 21% Rural 38%

MedicineUrban 6% Rural 8%

Family and friends provide most of the help with food, money, and cultivation, while health care workers supplied

most medical assistance.4

Of those who needed assistance, urban respondents were nearly twice as likely as rural respondents to think that many less needy Zambians received

assistance before them.5

Family and friends help most with food, money,

and cultivation.4

Health care workers supply most Covid-19 info, masks, medicine, and soap.

Urban 34%

Rural 16%

42 43

Covid-19 Life Changes and FearsINCREASING FEARS COMPOUND CHALLENGES OF COVID IN ZAMBIA, CALLS FOR SAFETY NETS

Nearly 2/3 of Zambians surveyed feel their life changed a fair amount or a great deal since the start of the

pandemic.1

Perceptions of how much life has changed varies across subgroups.

Urban dwellers, people with higher education and who are more well-off economically are more likely to feel that life has changed a great deal due to Covid

Not at all 10%

A little bit 28%

A fair amount 20%

A great deal 42%

How much has your daily life changed since the outbreak of Covid-19?

22% said they lost their job44% said they had a reduction in income.

28% said they have gone to bed hungry

12% said they have experienced violence and

crime

Asked if they had experienced various changes since March

2020...2

Most who had experienced life changes attribute them to

Covid.3

100

80

60

40

20

0

Reduction inincome

Lost job Gone to bedhungry

Experiencedcrime/violence

Yes

%

Do you believe you ... due to Covid?

Many who have not experienced the difficulties presented

above fear they will in the future.4

50% fear they will go

to bed hungry

59% fear an increase in violence/

crime

41% think healthcare access

will become more difficult

43% fear losing jobs or a reduction in

income

.

44 45

Zambians fear the worst is yet to come.5

When asked what they think is likely to happen in Zambia over the next few months, people answered:

Results highlight Zambians' increasing fears over the impacts of Covid. What safety nets can be put in place to cushion these negative impacts?

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

%

Worst passed/things will being to improve Worst is yet to comeSituation remain the same

Nov 26 - Dec 2

N = 348

Dec 10 - Dec 16 N = 244

Jan 7 - Jan 13

N = 190

Dec 24 - Dec 30 N = 93

Dec 3 - Dec 9

N = 422

Dec 17 - Dec 23 N = 210

Dec 31- Jan 6

N = 96

Jan 14 - Jan 20 N = 137

We asked people what measures they thought were effective against COVID-19.

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Washing hands Staying away fromlarge gatherings

Staying away fromothers if sick

Wearing mask

Very Effective Somewhat effective Not effective/don't know

The vast majority believe common precautions are effective.1

Covid-19 Social Challenges to Precautions DOES A CLASH BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY AND SOCIAL OBLIGATIONS CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPREAD OF COVID-19?

46 47

Most Zambians report practicing individual precautionary measures...2

86% of respondents report washing their hands & 47% use hand sanitizer

83% report wearing masks

23% of people stay at home

41% practice social distancing

& 30% avoid crowds

23% avoid shaking hands

2% avoid religious gatherings

...but far fewer report adopting social distancing measures.

Among the households that have established rules, the rules were usually made by the head of the household.

45% of households have established their own precautionary rules. The most common ones are handwashing and wearing masks.3

Many with Covid symptoms do not stay away from others.4

When those who had symptoms are asked what they did when sick...

When those without symptoms are asked what they would do if sick...

58% stayed away from friends and family

41% got tested

75% stayed away from public gatherings

92% would stay away from friends and family

93% would get tested

97% would stay away from public gatherings

Those who had experienced symptoms were less likely to avoid social contact than those without symptoms estimated they would they would do if sick.

A difference between those who get sick and those who don't,or a sign that it's harder to social distance than one might expect?

48 49

Around half of respondents think almost all, or a majority, of people in their village would get tested.

Fear of social stigma

Fear of isolation centre

Covid-19 is not real

No space for self-isolation

Cannot afford medical…

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

%

Fear of social stigma and isolation are also obstacles to

testing.5

Asked why they thought people would not get tested, respondents cite:

Effectively combatting the spread of Covid-19 requires encouraging communities to reward behaviours that run counter to social obligations.

Covid-19 Community RestrictionsRURAL COMMUNITIES MORE LIKELY TO COMPLY WITH COMMUNITY RESTRICTIONS, HIGHER COMPLIANCE WHERE CONSEQUENCES MORE PREVALENT

Type something

Type something

We asked respondents about implementation of restrictions:1

Urban 73%Rural 69%

Urban 73%Rural 72%

Urban 72%Rural 60%

Urban 71%Rural 66%

Urban 86%Rural 79%

Some public places

require mask

Large gatherings forbidden

Transport reduced or

altered

MarketplaceClosures

Limited hours of

operation*

If implemented, are these restrictions enforced in your community?

Are these restrictions implemented in your community?

Urban 89%Rural 86%

Urban 66%Rural 61%

Urban 19%Rural 25%

Urban 17%Rural 24%

Urban 27%Rural 36%

50 51

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Limited hours Market closures Gatherings forbidden Mask requirements Transport altered

Com

ply

%

Urban Rural

Percentages who believe people comply completely/a great deal:

Rate of consequences vary across restrictions, with rural dwellers reporting more prevalent punishment for non-

compliance.3

Restrictions are implemented and enforced to similar degrees, but rural dwellers are more likely to comply with restrictions.2

50

40

30

20

10

0

Limited hours Market closures Gatheringsforbidden

Maskrequirements

Transportaltered

%

People think poorly of Fines/material loss Physical punishment

Percentages reporting different consequences for non-compliance:

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Limite

d hou

rs

Market

closu

res

Gatheri

ng fo

rbidd

en

Mask r

equir

emen

ts

Trans

port

altere

d

diff

eren

ce in

% (r

ural

- ur

ban)

People think poorlyof

Fines/material loss

Physical punishment

Urban-Rural differences in prevalence of reported consequences:

With one exception, rural dwellers face more frequent consequences for breaking community restrictions.

This could shed light on why rural communities have higher rates of compliance

52 53

54 55

How to cite this report:

Ahsan Jansson, Cecilia; Bergman, Jennifer; Bjurnevall, Sara; Dulani, Boniface; Ferree, Karen; Fischer

Madsen, Lucas; Harris, Adam; Hinfelaar, Marja; Kao, Kristen; Lust, Ellen; Metheney, Erica Ann.

(2021). “Fears, Vulnerabilities, and Precautions over Covid-19: A Report on Citizens’ Experiences in

Malawi and Zambia.” The Program on Governance and Local Development, University of

Gothenburg: http://www.gld.gu.se

Survey QuestionsMalawiCOVID-FEARS, Full Survey Questions:

1. How worried are you about getting infected with Covid-19? Would you say you are:

Very worried, somewhat worried, only a little worried, not worried at all, not sure, refuse to answer

2. Do you fear that you will be hungry/go without food because of the Covid-19 pandemic?

3. Do you think it will be more difficult to get access to healthcare because of Covid-19?

4. Do you think others would treat you poorly if they believed you had Covid-19?

TRUST IN AUTHORITIES, Full Survey Questions:

1. How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough to say?

2. Which of the following do you think best understands the coronavirus?

3. Do you think the presidential elections should be held on July 2nd as scheduled, given

Covid-19?

4. In some countries, some politicians have used the crisis to increase their power/authority or

enrich themselves. Do you worry that this is happening or could happen here in Malawi?

VULNERABILITIES, Full Survey Questions:

1. I will read out a few statements about your income. Please tell me, which of the following

statement is closest to you situation:

Our household income covers the needs well – we can save.

Our household income covers the needs alright, without much difficulty.

Our household income does not cover the needs, there are difficulties.

Our household income does not cover the needs, there are great difficulties.

Don’t know/Refuse to answer.

2. Are children under the age of 18 currently living in this household?, What is the age of the

oldest member of your household?

3. How many people currently live with you in your household?, How many rooms are in your

house?

4. Does anyone in your household have diabetes, high blood pressure, lung disease, or other

chronic health problems?

5. Do you have enough water for everyone in your household to wash their hands frequently?

6. Do you have access to soap or hand sanitizer in your home for washing hands?

7. Have you had a dry cough, shortness of breath, or fever during the past two weeks?

http://www.gld.gu.se

56 57

SOCIAL REACTIONS, Full Survey Questions:


2. Preliminary results from survey experiment by Dulani, Boniface; Ferree, Karen; Harris, Adam;

Kao, Kristen; Lust, Ellen; Metheney, Erica. Details available upon request.

ECONOMIC IMPACT, Full Survey Questions:

1. Have you experienced a reduction in income/salary due to the Covid-19 pandemic?

2. Have you lost a job or experienced a reduction in hours due to the Covid-19 pandemic?

3. Have you needed assistance during the Covid-19 crisis?

4. [if assistance was needed] Have you received assistance during the Covid-19 crisis?

5. Do you fear a reduction in future income/salary due to the Covid-19 pandemic?


NEEDS AND ASSISTANCE, Full Survey Questions:


2. Have you lost a job or experienced a reduction in hours due to the Covid-19 pandemic?


4. [if assistance was needed] Have you received assistance during the Covid-19 crisis?



ZambiaCOVID FEARS, Full Survey Questions:

1. How worried are you about getting infected with Covid-19? Would you say you are: Very worried,

somewhat worried, only a little worried, not worried at all, not sure, refuse to answer



4. Do you fear an increase in crime or violence in your community due to the Covid-19 pandemic?

5. Do you fear crime or violence or both?


RESPONSE TO ILLNESS, Full Survey Questions:


2. Given your symptoms did you: Go to a traditional healer, Stay away from public funtions like church

meetings or funerals, Stay away from friends and family, Go to a health clinic

3. If you had these symptoms would you: Go to a traditional healer, Stay away from public functions

like church meetings or funerals, Stay away from friends and family, Go to a health clinic

4. If you were sick from Covid-19, could you count on help from:

Your Family, Your Neighbors, Your Village Head, Your Religious Leader

TRUST IN AUTHORITIES, Full Survey Questions:

1. Do you have confidence in the government’s ability to handle the Covid-19 crisis?

2. Do you have confidence in the public/government health system’s ability to handle the

Covid-19 crisis?

3. How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough to say?

The Government of Zambia, Your Chief, Your Religious Leader, Your Provincial Minister, District Health

Office

4. Which of the following do you think best understands the Novel Corona/Covid-19 virus?

Your Chief or Similar Leader, Your Religious Leader, District Health Office

6. In some countries, some politicians have used the crisis to increase their power/authority or

enrich themselves. Do you worry that this is happening or could happen here in Zambia?

VULNERABILITIES AND AID, Full Survey Questions:

1. How many people currently live with you in your household?, How many rooms are in your

house?

2. Are children under the age of 18 currently living in this household?, What is the age of the

oldest member of your household?

3. Does anyone in your household have diabetes, high blood pressure, lung disease, or other

chronic health problems?

4. Do you have enough water for everyone in your household to wash their hands frequently?

5. Do you have access to soap or hand sanitizer in your home for washing hands?


7. will read out a few statements about your income. Please tell me, which of the following

statement is closest to you situation: Our household income covers the needs well – we can save. Our

household income covers the needs alright, without much difficulty. Our household income does not

cover the needs, there are difficulties. Our household income does not cover the needs, there are great

difficulties. Don’t know/Refuse to answer

58 59


9. Have you received assistance during the Covid-19 crisis?

10. From whom?

PRECAUTIONARY BEHAVIOURS, Full Survey Questions:

1. How worried are you about getting infected with Covid-19? Would you say you are: Very Worried,

Somewhat worried, only a little worried, not worried at all, not sure, refuse to answer



4. Do you fear an increase in crime or violence in your community due to the Covid-19 pandemic?

5. Do you fear crime or violence or both?


ECONOMIC IMPACT, Full Survey Questions:

1. Have you lost a job or experience a reduction in hours due to the Covid-19 pandemic?


3. What is your highest level of education?

4. Do you have a job that pays a cash income/salary?

COMMUNITY RESTRICTIONS, Full Survey Questions:


2. Given your symptoms did you: Go to a traditional healer. Stay away from public functions like church

meetings or funerals. Stay away from friends and family. Go to a health clinic.

3. If you had these symptoms would you: Go to a traditional healer. Stay away from public functions

like church meetings or funerals. Star away from friends and family. Go to a health clinic.

4. If you were sick from Covid-19, could you count on help from: Your Family. Your Neighbors. Your

Village Head. Your Religious Leader.

NEEDS AND ASSISTANCE, Full Survey Questions:

1. Have you needed assistance (including health care, financial assistance, masks, soap, or other

help) during the Covid-19 crisis?

2. What type of assistance have you needed?

3. Follow up question to 2: Have you received assistance with {0} with during the Covid-19 crisis?

4. From whom did you receive assistance with {0}?

5. Do you believe that there are household that have received such assistance but were not in as

much need as you? If so, would you say there are none, a few, or many such cases?

LIFE CHANGES AND FEARS, Full Survey Questions:

1. Since the outbreak of the virus, how much has your daily life changed? Not at all, a little bit, a

fair amount, a great deal, don’t know/refuse to answer

2. Have you ever experienced a reduction in income/salary since March of this year?-Have you or anyone in your household ever gone to bed hungry since March of this year?

-Have you lost your job since March of this year?

-Have you or anyone in your household ever been a victim of crime or violence since March of

this year?

3. Do you believe that the reduction in income/salary was due to the Covid-19 pandemic?-Would you say that this was a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic (follow up question to

hunger)

-Do you believe that you lost your job due to the Covid-19 pandemic?

-Do you believe that this was due, at least in part, to the Covid-19 pandemic? (follow up

question to crime/violence)

4. Do you fear losing your job or experiencing a future reduction of income/salary due to the

Covid-19 pandemic?- Do you fear that in the future you will be hungry/go without food due to the Covid-19

pandemic?

- Do you fear an increase in crime or violence in your community due to the Covid-19

pandemic?

-Do you think in the future it will be more difficult to get access to healthcare because of

Covid-19?

5. When thinking about the Coronavirus here in Zambia, which of the following do you think is

most likely to happen over the next few months? Do you think that...?

SOCIAL CHALLENGES TO COVID-19 PRECAUTIONS, Full Survey Questions:

1. For each of the following actions, would you say it is a very effective, somewhat effective, not

very effective or not effective at all way to prevent the spread of Covid-19?

2. What measures, if any, have you adopted to protect yourself from the virus?

3. Has your household established any additional rules – such as household curfew,

mask-wearing, or other protective practices – apart from those we have already discussed?

4. Given your symptoms did you.../If you had these symptoms, would you... Did you get tested for

Covid-19? If you had these symptoms, would you get tested for Covid-19?

5. Do you think that almost all, a majority, some, or just a few others in your neighborhood would

go to be tested if they were sick and free testing was available?

6. Why do you think some people would NOT want to get tested?

60 61

COMMUNITY RESTRICTIONS, Full Survey Questions:

1. In the past week, have any local marketplaces in your village/neighborhood been closed due to

coronavirus?

2. In the past week, has a curfew been imposed in your village/neighborhood?

3. At this time, have church services or other large gatherings been forbidden?

4. Has the curfew been enforced?, Is this restriction being enforced?

5. By whom?

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