FarmlandLoss– Trends,PredictionsandPotential

Action

By:WayneCaldwellandSaraEpp

GoldenHorseshoeFoodandFarmingAlliance– September26,2017

PresentationOutline

• FarmlandinOntario• Whyprotectfarmland?• Startingpremise• Challengeswithexistingmeasurementtools

• Researchmethod• Initialfindings• Challenges• Nextsteps• Discussion

FarmlandinOntario

• Only0.5%ofCanada’slandareaisClass1farmland• Overhalfoftheclass1farmlandisinSouthernOntario• AllofCanada’s2bestagri-climaticzones• 70-85%oflandbeingurbanizedisclass1

AgriculturalUncertainty

Past Present Future

Climate Change

Water Use

Peak Oil

DiaryEntry:June1,1877

DiaryEntry:5generationslater,June1,2017

So… whyProtectFarmland?

• Foodproduction• Foodsecurity• Economiccontributionsofagriculture• Stewardship&amenityofthecountryside• Aresourceforfuturegenerations

EvolvingRationaleforProtectingFarmland

• Traditionalreasons• Theamenityoffood• Globalresponsibility• Energy• FutureOptions

• LocalFood• Connectionstohealth• Localeconomies• Amenityvalue• Necessity• Other…

FarmlandPreservation:WhatarethePositivesinOntario?• Relativelyhighurbandensities• Somemunicipalities- verysoundpolicies• Arelativelyhighacceptanceofplanning(andstatebasedrestrictions)• Highcapabilityfarmlandandtheeconomicsofpreservation• Urbanintensification,downtownrenewal,etc.• Activeprovincialinvolvement

FarmlandPreservation:AreasofConcern• Expansionofurbanareas&lossoffarmland(4millionmorepeopleanticipatedin30years)• Untilrecently,farmlandpreservationhashadalowprofile• Farmlandlossisoftenseenasinevitable• Lossoffarmers…butprotectionoffarmland• Somemunicipalities- poortrackrecord(ruralseverances)

WhataretheImpactsofNon-farmLandusesonAgriculturalLand?• Introducesrestrictionsonfarmland• Fragmentlandbase&consumefarmland• Potentialconflictwithagriculture• Canleadtochangesintheruralcommunity• Detractfromruralaesthetic• Environmentalandservicingimpacts

MeasuringFarmlandConversion:StartingPremise

Wearechallengedbytheabsenceofdatatoaccuratelydocumentchangestofarmlandavailabilityovertime

Source:GeoOttawa

ExistingMethodsComeWithChallenges

• Census – Onlydocumentslandinproduction(e.g.commodityprices).Itmaybedecadesbeforelandcomesoutofproductionfollowingalandusedecision.

• Aerialimagery– Variesacrosstheprovinceandmayormaynotdocumenttheimpactoflandusedecisions.

LandApprovalsandDevelopment

• Delaybetweenapprovalsandlanddevelopment• Landoftencomesoutofproductionyearsafterapprovalshavebeengranted

• Whennewhousesarebuiltaformeragriculturaluseisvisiblylost

• AssumedpolicyfailureofGreenbeltorCountyorRegionalPlanning• Peopleseehousesbuiltonprimelandor“sprawl”andassumethattheplanninginstrumentisn’tworking

OfficialPlanAmendments1973to1981

Underconstruction- 2017 Constructioncompleted- 2014

Underconstruction- 2017

ResearchMethods

Thisresearchspecificallylookedatapprovedofficialplanamendmentsbyregion/countytoidentifythe

amountoflandlosttourbanexpansionandothernon-agriculturallanduses.

ResearchMethods

• Includedreviewingplanners'reports,officialplanpoliciesandprovinciallegislation• 100soffileswerereviewedon-siteorwhenavailable,electronically• Region/countystaffhavebeenconsultedforaidininterpretingindividualfileswhennecessary.

Timeframe– ResearchParameters

• Startwiththeyear2000to2014• Capturedbothdatabeforethe2005PPSandbeforetheGreenbelt

StudySites

Redesignations byCounty/Region

County/Region

NumberofapprovedOPAs

relatedtothelossofprime

agricultureland

Prime agricultureredesignated for:

Developmentdesignation(Ha)

Ruraldesignation

(Ha)

Non-farm usesthroughsite-specificpolicyamendments (Ha)

Brant 4 47 0 0

Durham 5 1,723 56 18

Halton 12 2,656 0 287

Huron 2 25 0 0

Niagara 42 944 240 851

Peel 4 3,274 0 127

Perth 57 217 0 415

Simcoe 47 2,100 82 162

Waterloo 9 1,088 400 0

Wellington 27 812 0 86

York 16 5,233 1,755 0

Redesignations byCounty/Region

County/Region

NumberofapprovedOPAs

relatedtothelossofprime

agricultureland

Prime agricultureredesignated for:

Developmentdesignation(Ha)

Ruraldesignation

(Ha)

Non-farm usesthroughsite-specificpolicyamendments (Ha)

Brant 4 47 0 0

Durham 5 1,723 56 18

Halton 12 2,656 0 287

Huron 2 25 0 0

Niagara 42 944 240 851

Peel 4 3,274 0 127

Perth 57 217 0 415

Simcoe 47 2,100 82 162

Waterloo 9 1,088 400 0

Wellington 27 812 0 86

York 16 5,233 1,755 0

Redesignations byCounty/Region

County/Region

NumberofapprovedOPAs

relatedtothelossofprime

agricultureland

Prime agricultureredesignated for:

Developmentdesignation(Ha)

Ruraldesignation

(Ha)

Non-farm usesthroughsite-specificpolicyamendments (Ha)

Brant 4 47 0 0

Durham 5 1,723 56 18

Halton 12 2,656 0 287

Huron 2 25 0 0

Niagara 42 944 240 851

Peel 4 3,274 0 127

Perth 57 217 0 415

Simcoe 47 2,100 82 162

Waterloo 9 1,088 400 0

Wellington 27 812 0 86

York 16 5,233 1,755 0

Redesignations byCounty/Region

County/Region

NumberofapprovedOPAs

relatedtothelossofprime

agricultureland

Prime agricultureredesignated for:

Developmentdesignation(Ha)

Ruraldesignation

(Ha)

Non-farm usesthroughsite-specificpolicyamendments (Ha)

Brant 4 47 0 0

Durham 5 1,723 56 18

Halton 12 2,656 0 287

Huron 2 25 0 0

Niagara 42 944 240 851

Peel 4 3,274 0 127

Perth 57 217 0 415

Simcoe 47 2,100 82 162

Waterloo 9 1,088 400 0

Wellington 27 812 0 86

York 16 5,233 1,755 0

GreenbeltAreaTotalsOutsidethe

GreenbeltPlanAreaWithinthe

GreenbeltPlanArea Total

pre-2005 2005- 2014 pre-2005 2005-2014

PrimeAgricultureLandLost(Hectares) 8,127 11,709 649 0 20,485ha

SiteSpecificNon-AgriculturalUses

(Hectares)342 808 400 0 1,550ha

Total 8,469ha 12,517ha 1,049ha 0ha 22,035ha

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

HECTAR

ES

COUNTY/REGION

PrimeAgriculturalLandRedesignated(2000-2014)byCounty/RegionwithintheGreaterGoldenHorseshoe

SiteSpecific

Rural

Development

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

HECTAR

ES

COUNTY/REGION

PrimeAgriculturalLandRedesignated(2000-2014)byCounty/RegionwithintheGreaterGoldenHorseshoeas

aProportionofthe2016CensusFarmArea

SiteSpecific

Rural

Development

12.1%

0.48%

9.98%

2.33%

10.6%

1.57%

0.07%

1.16%1.8%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

HECTAR

ES

YEAROFAPPLICATIONADOPTION

SumofFarmlandConvertedperYearwithinGreaterGoldenHorseshoe

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

HECTAR

ES

YEAROFAPPLICATIONADOPTION

SumofFarmlandConvertedperYearwithintheGreaterGoldenHorseshoe

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

NUMBE

ROFAM

ENDM

ENTS

AMENDMENTYEAR

NumberofOfficialPlanAmendmentsbyYear

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

NUMBE

ROFAM

ENDM

ENTS

AMENDMENTYEAR

NumberofOfficialPlanAmendmentsbyYear

*ExcludesSimcoeandWaterloo

PopulationChangefrom2011- 2016

Source:StatisticsCanada,2017

AgriculturalDesignationsOvertheYears:2005

ApprovedbyRegionJune2005AppealedtotheOMBApprovedbyOMBDecember2006

AgriculturalDesignationsOvertheYears:2006

NorthwestBramptonUrbanDevelopmentArea– 2,428Hectares(6,000Acres)

AgriculturalDesignationsOvertheYears:2014

MayfieldWestPhase2SecondaryPlanSettlementAreaBoundaryExpansion-207.5Hectares(512.5Acres)

Thelossoffarmlandhasoccurredinincrementalstages

AgriculturalDesignationsOvertheYears:FutureGrowthExpectations

RedboxindicatestheMayfieldWestRuralServiceStudyAreaofapproximately2,000hectares

Challenges

• Regionalvariation• Sitespecificpolicies

• Permitteduses

• Aggregateresults• Developmentdelays• Definitionoffarmland• Secondaryagricultureandruraldesignations

NextSteps

• CompletecasestudieswithintheGreaterGoldenHorseshoe• Dufferin,Peterborough,Northumberland,KawarthaLakes,HamiltonandHaldimand

• Analysis/report• Toolkit• Outlineofmethodology• Ecouraging practices• Focusgroupwithplanners,farmersandotherstakeholders

• Accesstodata• Willbeavailableonwww.waynecaldwell.ca

AnunwrittendiaryentryforJune1,2047:

ThankYou

• Questions?