Farming Futures: The agriculture sector in the South West to 2020 and beyond

Matt Lobley

E-mail: m.lobley@exeter.ac.ukWeb: www.centres.ex.ac.uk/crpr/

“The prospects for humanity and for the world as a whole are somewhere between glorious and dire. It is hard to be much more precise” (Colin Tudge, 2004)

• Not trying to predict farming futures

• Identify factors likely to influence agriculture in the South West in mid-term future (2025/30)

Objectives

Recent agricultural trends

• Long term trend of declining labour • Loss of dairy farms but until now, not much

change in dairy production levels• Increasing farm size but also large &

expanding small farm/lifestyle sector• Low and volatile incomes• Dependency on public funds• Development of local food cultures

Climate change

• Warmer, dryer summers• Wetter, warmer winters• New opportunities for farmers – new varieties, new

crops (e.g. nuts)• New pests and diseases• Agriculture’s role in carbon capture & storage

Population change

• Population projected to grow from 6 to 9 billion by 2050.

• Population distribution: Climate change migrants?

• Not just population growth. Changing patterns of demand.

• Together, require world food production to double.

• Expansion of farmed area?• Intensification of production?

Policy change – CAP reform

• Impact of global recession• Public good arguments for supporting

agriculture remain strong• Phasing out of direct payments, particularly

post 2020?• Many farmers in SW vulnerable to loss of

CAP funds

Food security

• Linked to population growth & climate change

• End of period of food & land ‘surpluses’• New era of volatile food commodity

prices?• Self-sufficiency or access to safe,

nutritious food via trade?• Likely to see greater emphasis on

increasing domestic production

Food security

• “the UK has a moral duty to make the most of its position in the globe and its natural advantages for producing certain types of food. ... it should aim to increase its production of those fruit, vegetables and cereals that are suited to being grown here” (EFRA Com 2009)

Food security

• The return of productivism?

• Food v fuel debate

• Strategic need to support regional/local agricultural infrastructure?

• Climate Change - risks of new agricultural pests and diseases.

• Speed of change makes for greater severity of some diseases.

• Blue Tongue: extended range northwards into areas of Europe further north than this virus has ever previously occurred anywhere in the world.

• Who should shoulder responsibility as number of notifiable diseases increases – tax payers, farmers, insurance companies?

Bio-security

• The energy inefficiency of contemporary agriculture

• Peak oil• Search for efficiency gains & alternatives• Min till, low input systems• Biomass rather than biofuels?• Implications for land use and landscape

Energy security

Water security

• Globally, freshwater per person forecast to have declined by 43% in 2025 compared to late 1980s

• EA defines SW as having ‘moderate’ water stress• During summer months no additional water available

in much of region• Agriculture significant consumer of water• Estimated 700L of water embedded in 1L of milk &

15,000L in 1kg of beef

So what?

• ‘Perfect storm’ of increasing demand for food, energy & water at same time as adapting to and mitigating climate change – Implications for size/shape of sector – less oil

more labour?– Implications for how land is used and managed –

reduced soil disturbance– Implications for protected areas– Implications for research and intelligence