fall 2012 early enrollment estimates

Highlights: 2012 Early Enrollment Estimates

Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 16, 2012

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2012 Early Enrollment Estimates

System Trend Compared to WICHE High School Graduation EstimatesMA High School Graduates vs.

MA Public Higher Ed First-Time and All Undergraduate Students

• Undergraduate enrollment continues to climb, though first-time student enrollment is slowly dropping along with declines in the estimated high school graduation cohorts.

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Segment Summary of Undergraduate Enrollment

• New enrollment highs across all segments, but growth is not as dramatic as in recent years.

• Growth at the four-year institutions is similar to national trends (1.1%).

• Community college growth runs counter to the national trend, where enrollment declined 2.2% from fall 2010 to fall 2011.

Fall 2012

Estimate

Change from

Fall 2011

Percent Change

Community Colleges

100,866 424 0.4%

State University

42,127 495 1.2%

UMass 53,943957

1.8%

System 196,936 1,876 1%

Undergraduate Headcount

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Campus Highlights: Fall ‘11 to Fall ‘12 Increases in Undergrad. Headcount

The campuses with the greatest fall-to-fall increases in undergraduate enrollment were :

▪ Framingham State University 6.2%▪ University of Massachusetts Lowell 5.0%▪ Fitchburg State University 4.3%▪ Bunker Hill Community College 4.0%▪ Northern Essex Community College 3.9%

•UMass Lowell and Bunker Hill had the highest enrollment increases in their segments for at least the past three years. Framingham State had the highest enrollment increases over the past two years.

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Segment Summary of Undergraduate Enrollment

Fall-to-Fall Trend in Undergraduate Headcount Growth

• Every year has brought growth in the state universities and UMass. Community colleges have only had one year without growth. • However, amount of growth has varied.• The start of the recession and large high school graduating classes inspired impressive year-to-year growth rates from fall 2007 to fall 2009. Growth has moderated since then.

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Fall Enrollment Long-Term Trend at a Glance

• Slower growth in recent years should not cloud the tremendous 23% growth in undergraduate enrollment over the last ten years.

26%

21%

19%


What does the slowing growth in enrollment imply?• Meeting the degree production goals of the Vision Project

will rely heavily on graduating more students already in the system.

• However, increases in graduation rates alone are unlikely to enable us the fully achieve the Vision Project goals.

• In order to effectively boost enrollments in the coming years, we will need to recruit larger cohorts of non-traditional students or students from frequently underserved populations, e.g.:

• Latino Students• Older Students

Implications of Enrollment Trends


Latino Students

2011 to 2022

Total Latino

Projected Change in High School Graduates

-9% +37%

Projected Changes in Massachusetts High School Graduates

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door

College-Going Rate of Massachusetts Public High School Graduates

White Latino

Percent of 2009 High school Graduates Enrolling in College in Fall 2009

72% 51%

Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, National Student Clearinghouse


Older Students

Fall 2008 to Fall 2011

Under 25 25 and over

Community Colleges 7% 23%

State Universities 6% 7%University of Massachusetts 4% 20%

System 6% 21%

Growth in New Student Undergraduate Enrollment by Age

Note: “New” means entered institution for the first time as a freshman, transfer, readmitted or non-degree-seeking student.

• Approximately 25% of our new students were 25 or older in 2011, which likely reflects the increasing economic pressure to obtain a college degree.


Adults with high school diplomas and the labor market.• According to the Center for Education and Workforce

(Georgetown): During the recession, the unemployment rate for high school graduates rose to 13.4% and remains at 9.4%.

• During the post-recession recovery, people with high school diplomas or less continued to lose jobs (-230,000) whereas those with some college education or higher gained jobs (1.6–2 million)

Older Students

Massachusetts public higher education is the education gateway for working-age adults.• In fall 2011, 74% of undergraduate students age 25

and over enrolled in higher education in Massachusetts were enrolled in Massachusetts public higher education.

QuestionsJonathan Keller: [email protected] or (617) 994-6941

mailto:[email protected]