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Fairfax Employment ForecastMay 2013 Edition

IntroductionThe Fairfax Employment Forecast has provided an accurate picture of the current and future Australian employment market since 2003. The report is produced every six months by EMDA, an Australian based Economic and Market Development Consultancy, and sponsored by Fairfax Media.

The report covers the Australian, mainland states, professional and managerial markets as well as key industries. The May 2013 edition finds that the number of jobs continues to grow and that the rate of growth is slowly lifting. In fact, a record level of employment for Australia was reached in early 2013.

There are a number of differences amongst sectors. Both the Mining sector and the Health and Community Service sector are growing strongly, but other areas such as the Public Sector and Manufacturing are declining.

The report also finds that the jobs growth has not been even amongst segments. Twilight Careers remains the fastest growing, with numbers again reaching record levels. On the other hand, the jobs market has been flat for Generation Y. The market overall for Professionals and Managers in Australia has

returned to growth after a weak 2011. At the state level, WA continues to be a standout in terms of jobs growth while SA is in the doldrums. NSW is growing again, while Victoria and Queensland are showing signs of tentative growth.

This edition also finds that a number of indicators are pointing to a better job market. Total hours worked have increased for the fourth month in a row.

The rate of job creation has also started to lift, while business and consumer confidence has started to pick up again.

Turning to the outlook, this report finds there are more positive signs going forward. The European debt situation is stabilising and the US economy is recovering. A contributing factor to the latter is the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of additional monetary measures, basically to lower interest rates further.

In Australia, business and consumer confidence is better. Interest rates have fallen, which should stimulate the market, while business employment intentions remain positive, although subdued in the year to December 2012. The forward indicators therefore are pointing to a more positive outlook with growth picking up through the new year.

In the year to February 2014, 215,000 positions are forecast to be added to the Australian job market. This is an improvement on the year to August 2012, a low point, when just 58,000 new positions were added. However, even this growth would best be described as moderate. By way of contrast, in early 2011, more than 300,000 jobs were being added to the economy.

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Contents

04 Summary

06 Australia

07 New South Wales

08 Victoria

09 Queensland

10 Western Australia

11 South Australia

12 Full Time & Part Time Jobs

13 Australia Professional/Managers

14 NSW Professional/Managers

15 VIC Professional/Managers

16 QLD Professional/Managers

17 WA Professional/Managers

18 SA Professional/Managers

19 Engineering

20 Mining

21 Information & Communication Technology

22 Retail

23 Tourism & Hospitality

24 Media & Marketing

25 Human Resources & Recruitment

26 Health & Community Services

27 Education

28 Government

29 Financial Services

30 Property & Business Services

31 Construction & Property

32 Transport & Storage

33 Manufacturing

34 Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island Employment

35 Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island Employment – States

36 Gen X, Y, Boomers, Twilight Careers

37 Candidate Environment Index – Australia

38 Candidate Environment Index – States

39 Australian Salary Review

40 Retrospective

41 Glossary of Terms

42 Methodology

43 Disclaimer

3


After a flat 2012, 2013 is looking better for VIC.

The NSW economy is growing again after a soft 2011 and early 2012.

Summary

n With business and consumer confidence rising, the Australian job market is forecast to accelerate with 215,000 jobs to be added by February 2014.

n Full time jobs are still growing, with the rate of growth increasing.

After a very weak 2012 in SA, there are signs of a turnaround.

The WA jobs juggernaut rolls on, with this state adding 55,000 jobs.

After a long period of slowing growth in QLD, things are about to pick up.

4


A strengthening job market is forecast for Australia over 2013

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

NEW SOUTH WALES

VICTORIA

QUEENSLAND

5


Salary As the job market picks up, wages growth is also expected to lift, with managers and professionals expected to be better off than the rest of the workforce.

Professional/Managers The Professional/Managers employment market has returned to growth and more is expected over 2013 with jobs forecast to grow 2.2%.

The GenerationsThe job market has slowed for Generation Y but jobs for Twilight Careers are at record levels.

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island EmploymentAboriginal employment growth outpaces the total population.

Engineering

A shortage of engineers continues, especially in mining-related sectors.

MiningAlthough some unprofitable mines are shedding jobs, jobs growth continues overall.

Information & Communication Technology The industry is growing strongly and more growth is expected.

Retail This sector is starting to lift out the doldrums and e-retailing is growing strongly.

Tourism & HospitalityThis sector is turning around, with jobs growing again.

Media & Marketing This sector is well up from the trough of 2011.

Human Resources & Recruitment After a woeful second half of 2012 and a weak first quarter, growth is forecast.

Health & Community Services This sector is the fastest growing sector in total numbers, with more growth forecast.

Education Population growth will see this sector continue to rise.

GovernmentStaff reductions are taking a toll on this sector but the end to cost cutting is in sight.

Financial ServicesWith business confidence picking up again, the outlook in this sector is improving.

Property & Business ServicesThis sector has come back to life after the slump of 2011 and more growth is forecast.

Construction & Property There are signs that this sector is starting to improve again, with a lift in confidence.

Transport & Storage This sector is returning to growth after a soft few years.

Manufacturing This sector is still struggling under competitive headwinds.

AustraliaSolid and rising growth is forecast for Australia overall

DRIVER SUMMARY

Private Consumption

Capital Expenditure

GDP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index

Source: EMDA Model 2013

The Australian economy continues to grow, with GDP growing by 2.9% in the year to December 2012. Although this is a slowdown in the pace of growth, it is nevertheless a very good result in what was generally a weak global market. With the reduction in interest rates, some stabilisation of the European and American debt situations, plus a rise in global equity markets, business and consumer confidence is rising in Australia. Both indicators have been trending up for months now. Within such reasonable conditions, the Australian economy added 128,000 jobs over the year to February 2013 and while this is well below pre-GFC rates, it is still solid enough to keep unemployment at historically quite low levels. Job vacancies, although still softening in February 2013, were even then still at quite high levels, with 149,800 vacancies recorded. Even at the peak of the boom prior to the GFC, 182,900 vacancies were recorded in Australia, showing that the current level is not far behind that.

Total hours worked is another indicator of the current state of the job market and this has started to increase again, with hours

worked up 0.4% in February 2013. This is the fourth month in row of increases and further points to an improving job market.

There are positive signs going forward. The European debt situation is stabilising and although flare-ups can be expected - for example, the Cyprus bank run - the indicators are considerably more positive than they were last report. Domestically, there are signs that lower interest rates are stimulating the retail and housing markets after being in the doldrums for several years.

With employment intentions remaining positive (+4.40 to December 2012), the jobs outlook is positive with growth picking up through the new year. In the year to February 2014, 215,000 jobs are forecast to be added to the Australian job market. This is about two-thirds of the level prior to the GFC and with such low unemployment, skills shortages will re-emerge as a more significant issue. Work/life balance will also start to re-emerge as an issue.

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128 (‘000) additional jobs in the last

12 months

1.1% growth in the last 12 months

40(‘000) additional

jobs since last quarter

0.3%growth since the

last quarter

FORECAST TOTAL JOBS(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH IN JOBS

(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH (%)

QUARTERLY GROWTH IN JOBS

(‘000)

QUARTERLY GROWTH (%)

May 13 11,571 137 1.2 42 0.4

Aug 13 11,622 161 1.4 51 0.4

Nov 13 11,677 188 1.6 55 0.5

Feb 14 11,744 215 1.9 67 0.6

AUS ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS QUARTERLY GROWTH %

ACTUAL (Feb 13) TOTAL JOBS: 11,529 (‘000)

6


F

New South WalesThe largest state economy is growing again after a soft 2011 and early 2012

DRIVER SUMMARY

NSW Consumption

NSW GSP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index


After a fairly soft mid-2011, jobs growth has been picking up slowly in New South Wales. In the year to February 2013, 41,000 jobs have been added to a growing economy. In fact, the NSW economy is the second fastest growing state economy, after WA, with its economy growing 2.7% in December 2012 compared with December 2011. One of the drivers has been continued population growth, showing an increase of 78,900 over the year to June 2012.

On an annual basis, a very solid 32,000 full time jobs have been added to the state’s economy. This compares to just 13,000 full time positions added in the year to June 2012. In contrast, just 8,400 part time positions were added, indicating that employers are becoming more confident in taking on full time staff.

The unemployment rate in NSW remains at 5.2%, a level that has hardly changed from January 2012. Still, this does equate to 198,800 people looking for work. The unemployment rate amongst men and women is similar, running at 5.2% amongst males and 5.1% amongst females. Due to unemployment being still relatively low and jobs growth picking up, labour shortages will increase.

With business and consumer confidence improving, the job market is forecast to gather more momentum. The annual rate of jobs growth is forecast to increase by 70,000 by February 2014, featuring a strong component of full time growth.

3.5

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NSW ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. NSW QUARTERLY GROWTH %


12 months





last quarter



(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH (%)


(‘000)


May 13 3,635 49 1.4 15 0.4

Aug 13 3,652 59 1.7 17 0.5

Nov 13 3,668 65 1.8 16 0.4

Feb 14 3,690 70 1.9 22 0.6

7



F

VictoriaVictoria is emerging from the doldrums

DRIVER SUMMARY

VIC Consumption

VIC GSP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index


The Victorian economy can be characterised as an economy in a holding pattern with State Final Demand - an estimate of the level of spending by private and public sectors - softening 0.3% in the year to December 2012. However, despite the flat economy, the economy added 22,000 jobs in the year to February 2013. Since Christmas the rate of jobs growth has increased, with February 2013 recording a 2% gain for the month alone. Over the year, 33,000 part time positions have been added, versus a loss of 11,000 full time positions. The reduction in full time positions reflects the flat state of the economy.

A major factor contributing to the overall jobs growth is population growth. This element continues to be strong in Victoria, with the population growing by 89,000 (+1.6%), the highest of any state,

including NSW. This surge, however, has not been significant enough to stem the growth in unemployment, which is at a rate of 5.7%. Prior to the GFC, Victoria’s unemployment rate was below 5%.

From an outlook point of view, business confidence is lifting from the mid-2012 trough, retail spending is improving and the Melbourne housing market is showing signs of growth post-Christmas. The EMDA model is forecasting a continued and solid pick-up in jobs growth as the economy gathers some momentum thanks to lower interest rates and improved confidence. By February 2014, annual jobs growth is forecast to reach a very solid 52,000 positions, with a switch back to full time jobs growth.

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Feb

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(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH (%)


(‘000)


May 13 2,895 29 1.0 11 0.4

Aug 13 2,907 36 1.3 12 0.4

Nov 13 2,921 46 1.6 14 0.5

Feb 14 2,936 52 1.8 15 0.5

VIC ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. VIC QUARTERLY GROWTH %

8


12 months





last quarter



F

QueenslandAfter a long period of slowing growth, growth is about to pick-up

DRIVER SUMMARY

QLD Consumption

QLD GSP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index


The Queensland economy has rebounded strongly from the floods of early 2012, with the economy growing 2.5% in the December 2012 quarter compared to the same time last year. The employment market is showing signs of responding to this activity, with jobs growth increasing in the February 2013 quarter. Population growth has also helped maintain some jobs growth, with the population rising 86,000 (+1.9%) in the year to June 2012.

Full time jobs growth, while positive at 13,400, has been very subdued by Queensland standards. By way of contrast, just prior to the GFC the state added 93,000 full time jobs in 2007 alone. Unusually for a soft economy, part time positions fell over the 12 months by 5,000 jobs.

This soft economy has seen a significant rise in unemployment, reaching 5.8%. Prior to the GFC, it was below 4%. The unemployment rate amongst males is slightly higher at 5.9%, whereas amongst females it is 5.6%.

Nevertheless, the outlook is brighter, with the EMDA model forecasting a rising jobs market, its growth accelerating to 1.5% in the year to February 2014. This translates into an additional 36,000 jobs for the state. Improved business and consumer confidence will be key drivers backed by continued population growth. Business confidence has already been lifting from the mid-year trough of 2012.

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QLD ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. QLD QUARTERLY GROWTH %



(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH (%)


(‘000)


May 13 2,343 6 0.3 4 0.2

Aug 13 2,351 11 0.5 8 0.3

Nov 13 2,361 24 1.0 10 0.4

Feb 14 2,375 36 1.5 14 0.6

9


12 months





last quarter



F

Western AustraliaThe WA jobs juggernaught continues

DRIVER SUMMARY

WA Consumption

WA GSP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index


The Western Australian economy hardly missed a beat with its incredibly strong growth. In the December 2012 quarter, the economy grew by 11.1% compared to last year. To put it in perspective, this is even faster growth than in China. NSW is the next fastest growing state, but WA dwarfs its rate of 2.7%. Not surprisingly, jobs have been growing spectacularly in WA, with the annual rate of jobs growth up 4.4% in the year to February 2013. The continued growth in the Mining sector has been the biggest contributor, backed by strong population growth. The state’s population grew by 78,000 (+3.3%) in the year to June 2012, the actual numerical growth in numbers on a par with NSW, Queensland and Victoria.

As a further sign of the strength of its economy, WA added 48,700 full time jobs over the year to February 2013. This is a rate of growth of 5.5%, a spectacular achievement in a soft world economy. Only 6,200 part time jobs were created, highlighting the preference by employers for full time workers.

The WA unemployment rate is still very low, down at 4.4%, the lowest of all the states. Amongst males it is still at a very low 4.2%.

Business confidence is growing again in WA and remains the highest of any state. With a still solid Mining sector, business confidence rising and low interest rates, the EMDA model is forecasting continued strong growth in the job market. Jobs are expected to rise by 3.5% in the year to February 2014.

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(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH (%)


(‘000)


May 13 1,313 50 4.0 10 0.8

Aug 13 1,324 48 3.8 11 0.8

Nov 13 1,336 45 3.5 12 0.9

Feb 14 1,349 46 3.5 13 1.0

WA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. WA QUARTERLY GROWTH %

10


12 months





last quarter



F

South AustraliaAfter a very weak 2012, there are signs of a turnaround

DRIVER SUMMARY

SA Consumption

SA GSP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index


For South Australia, the impact of the GFC has hit much later than the other states. However, there are signs that the worst is behind as business confidence continues to rise from the trough of mid-2012. The economy overall has been fairly flat, neither really growing nor shrinking for about a year now. Population growth has also been soft in SA, growing by just 16,500 (+1.0%). This situation has resulted in a slight decline in the total jobs in the state, down by 2,000 over the year to February 2013.

Part time positions grew by 5,000 over the year, but full time opportunities suffered from the weak economy, down 7,000 over the year. The last quarter has seen a slight turnaround, with total jobs growing by a few hundred.

With the weak economy, it is perhaps no surprise that the unemployment rate has risen in SA to 5.9%, the highest of the mainland states. Unemployment is higher amongst males, reaching 6.0%, versus the female rate of 5.7%.

On a brighter note, lower interest rates are starting to have an impact and business confidence is improving, lifting from the trough of mid-June last year. On the back of better confidence, the job market is forecast to start recovering with an annual employment growth of 7,000 by February 2014.

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SA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. SA QUARTERLY GROWTH %



(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH (%)


(‘000)


May 13 817 -1 -0.2 1 0.1

Aug 13 819 3 0.3 2 0.2

Nov 13 821 5 0.7 2 0.2

Feb 14 823 7 0.9 2 0.2

11

-2 (‘000) jobs in the

last 12 months

-0.3% growth in the last 12 months

0(‘000) jobs since

last quarter


last quarter

ACTUAL (Feb 13) TOTAL JOBS: 816 (‘000)


F

Full Time & Part Time JobsFull time jobs are continuing to grow and more is expected

DRIVER SUMMARY

Private Consumption

Capital Expenditure

GDP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index


Full time employment continues to grow, with the annual rate of growth increasing. In the middle of last year, 62,700 full time jobs were added. By the beginning of this year, however, the annual rate had increased to 75,400. Nevertheless, this is still well down from the peak days when more than 200,000 full time jobs were added in a year. The slowdown in growth has seen a rise in the full time unemployment rate to 5.5%, but at least, relative to other parts of the world, this is still very low. Full time wages are growing at 3.6%, slightly below the long-term average.

Part time jobs are also increasing, with the annual rate increasing to 52,100 jobs. This compares with the market growing 33,200 part

time jobs over the year to December 2012. There are now 190,000 unemployed looking for part time work, a 5.5% increase from the same time last year.

With the economy expected to pick up steam again, now that the global economic situation appears improved, full time jobs are forecast to grow by 1.6% by the beginning of 2014. Part time and casual jobs are also predicted to continue to grow, with employees valuing the flexibility this option offers and increasing numbers of people preferring to take up part time positions to suit their work/life balance.

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FORECAST TOTAL FULL TIME JOBS

(‘000)

ANNUAL GROWTH IN FULL TIME JOBS

(%)

TOTAL PART TIME JOBS

(000’S)

ANNUAL GROWTH IN PART TIME JOBS

(% p.a)

May 13 8,122 1.0 3,448 1.6

Aug 13 8,151 1.2 3,471 1.9

Nov 13 8,197 1.4 3,480 2.1

Feb 14 8,233 1.6 3,511 2.4

FULL TIME % p.a. PART TIME % p.a.

12

8,099 (‘000) total FT jobs in the last

12 months

0.9% growth in FT in the

last 12 months

3,430(‘000) total PT jobs in the last

12 months

1.5%growth in PT jobs

in the last 12 months


F

Australia Professional/Managers Growth in this category is trending up after a weak end to 2012

DRIVER SUMMARY

Business Cap EX

Aus. GDP

Composite Index

Source : ABS / EMDA Model 2013

The Professional/Managers employment market in Australia has improved since mid-2011, but by historical standards it is still subdued. In the year to February 2013, jobs increased by 2.0%. Nevertheless, positions in this category reached a record level, topping the 4,000,000 mark.

The employment market has been mixed for Professionals and Managers. On the one hand, positions for managers have softened slightly, with jobs declining 0.2% over the year. On the other, jobs for professionals continue to grow quite strongly, with positions up 3.4%. Positions for more senior level managers are growing quite well, while positions for all types of professionals continue to grow. As an

example, jobs for professionals in ICT are up 2.4%. In health they are up 1.7%, and in business and marketing they are up 2.3%.

Remuneration in this category continued to outpace inflation. Managerial and professional salaries are now growing at similar levels, with professional salaries increasing by 4.1% and managerial salaries by 4.6% in the year to December 2012.

With the economy continuing to grow and pick up pace, jobs for professionals and managers are also forecast to continue to grow. The pace of growth is also predicted to pick up, increasing to 2.2% by the end of November 2013.

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Nov

07

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08

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07

AUS. ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS. QUARTERLY GROWTH %



(%)


(%)

May 13 4,033 1.5 0.5

Aug 13 4,063 1.7 0.7

Nov 13 4,104 2.2 1.0

13


2.0%growth in the last 12 months

0.0% growth since the

last quarter


F

NSW Professional/Managers The market is forecast to recover

DRIVER SUMMARY

NSW Business Cap. Ex

NSW GSP

Composite Index


Despite the growth in the New South Wales economy overall, this sector has been sluggish, with positions barely growing over the year and the last quarter proving to be quite weak. The uncertainty in the global situation prior to Christmas took its toll on the market.

Managerial positions are static, with jobs down just 0.4%, although this is mainly due to a softening in farm management positions. Demand for specialist managers has been weaker, with jobs down by 3.1%.

Professional positions continue to grow, although even this sub-sector has not been immune from the slowdown, with jobs growing now at

just 0.5%, whereas pre-GFC they were growing at just under 6%. The demand for business professionals has been stronger, with positions up 0.5%, while accountants and human resources professional positions are growing again. Positions for health professionals took a dip, which is unusual for this sub-category. Positions for ICT professionals continue to grow, with jobs up 2.2% over the year.

With the NSW economy gathering momentum during the first half of 2013, the outlook for the Professional/Managers sector is quite good, with positions forecast to grow by 1.7% p.a. by November 2013. The professional market is still expected to be the stronger of the two markets, thanks to a recovery in the Health sector.

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Nov

07

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08

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07



(%)


(%)

May 13 1,302 0.1 0.4

Aug 13 1,312 0.7 0.8

Nov 13 1,328 1.7 1.2

NSW ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. NSW QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.

14



-0.7% growth since the

last quarter


F

VIC Professional/Managers Despite the soft economy, jobs are growing in this category

DRIVER SUMMARY

VIC Business Cap EX

VIC GDP

Composite Index


Despite the relatively weak Victorian economy, positions in this market have grown quite strongly. Over the year to February 2013, positions are up 4.0%. Unlike other states, positions for both managers and professionals have been growing.

Managerial positions are growing solidly (5.2%) after declining since the middle of last year. Positions for specialist managers continue to rebound, with jobs rising by 3.7% after falling for more than a year. Management positions in the hospitality area have turned around, with jobs up 3.1%. Positions for more senior management are also growing strongly.

Professional positions are growing again, with jobs up 3.3%. Positions for business, human resources and marketing are growing at 3.1%. Positions for ICT professionals are also growing (1.6%), while roles for education professionals have rebounded strongly.

With the economy expected to gather momentum after a flat year, managerial and professional positions are forecast to continue to grow, with jobs up 3.3% by November 2013.

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0

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Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

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09

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09

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11

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May

07

VIC ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. VIC QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.



(%)


(%)

May 13 1,068 4.0 0.7

Aug 13 1,076 3.9 0.7

Nov 13 1,086 3.3 0.9

15




last quarter


F

QLD Professional/Managers After a weak first half the outlook is better

DRIVER SUMMARY

QLD Business Cap. Ex

QLD GSP

Composite Index


With the Queensland economy still growing, positions in this sector are increasing as well, up 1.0% p.a. However, during the last half of the year the market was weaker, reflecting the uncertainty in the world economy.

There has been a big difference in outcomes for the managerial and professional categories in this state. In the year to February 2013, managerial positions fell 4.7%. Roles for specialist managers and hospitality managers were softer, as were farm management positions.

On the other hand, demand for professional positions is growing at 4.7% p.a. Business, human resources and sales/marketing positions

are all growing more than the overall job market (+4.0%). Design, engineering and science professionals are growing again, reflecting the growth in the economy. Jobs for education professionals are up 5.0% and, as always, jobs for health professionals continue to grow. These positions are up 2.6%. Jobs for ICT professionals are increasing by just over 10%.

With the Queensland economy expected to return to better times due to the improved global situation, more growth is expected in the managerial and professional job areas. By November 2013, jobs are forecast to be growing at a solid 1.3% on an annual basis, with quarterly growth picking up.

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 751 -0.6 0.3

Aug 13 755 -0.4 0.5

Nov 13 762 1.3 0.9

QLD ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. QLD QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.

16




last quarter


F

WA Professional/Managers Thanks to a strong economy, this market is growing strongly

DRIVER SUMMARY

WA Business Cap EX

WA GSP

Composite Index


With the Western Australian economy growing very strongly, jobs for professionals and managers continue to increase, rising 6.4% in the year to February 2013. Notably, the February 2013 quarter was very solid. Jobs for both managers and professionals are increasing, although professional jobs are growing at a much faster rate.

With the improved economic growth, managerial positions are up 2.0%. Jobs for specialist managers are up 1.5% and positions for senior management are growing strongly.

Professional positions are growing, with jobs increasing at 9.0% in the year ended February 2013. Demand for business-related professionals

is growing strongly as it is for health-related professionals. Skills shortages continue in that area.

With the Mining sector still forecast to grow, thanks to commodity prices remaining solid and large mine expansions underway, the forecast for the WA Professional/Managers sector is for increased growth. Jobs are expected to rise by 1.4% in the quarter ended November 2013, with an annual growth rate of 4.7%. Skills shortages will continue to be a feature of this market, especially in the mining and mining support related areas.

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07

WA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. WA QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.



(%)


(%)

May 13 424 5.7 1.0

Aug 13 429 4.6 1.2

Nov 13 435 4.7 1.4

17




last quarter


F

SA Professional/Managers The outlook is a little better

DRIVER SUMMARY

SA Business Cap. Ex

SA GSP

Composite Index


With a fairly weak economic environment, the South Australian managerial and professional market has been soft over the last year or so. Overall, positions in these occupations fell 1.1% across the year. However, there is a big difference between professional and managerial positions.

Managerial positions decreased 7% over the year, one of the biggest declines in the last 15 years. Roles for farm managers and senior managers fell, although amongst this gloom, opportunities for specialist managers increased.

The professionals market has been much better, with employment up 3.0%. One area that has been particularly strong is roles for

health professionals, which have grown 8%. Roles for ICT and business professionals have been weaker.

The SA economy is forecast to continue to recover and business confidence is rising after the trough of mid-2012, but growth is expected to be at a slow pace. As a consequence, positions for professionals and managers are expected to grow, with jobs rising by 0.4% in the November 2013 quarter. This would take annual growth to 0.1% by that time, a very subdued growth rate by historical standards.

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 270 -1.4 0.0

Aug 13 271 -0.5 0.4

Nov 13 272 0.1 0.4

SA ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. SA QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.

18


-1.1%growth in the last 12 months


last quarter


F

EngineeringThis sector is growing strongly and shortages are apparent

DRIVER SUMMARY

Construction Cap EX

Residential Building

Aus. GDP

Composite Index


The Engineering sector had a stronger quarter in February 2013, thanks to a swag of major engineering projects underway. Positions grew 3.4 % in this quarter alone, making it one of the fastest growing segments in the economy.

Reflecting the continued strength in the Mining sector, positions for mining engineers grew 23.6% over the year, broadly in line with the total increase in jobs in that sector. Demand also picked up for engineering managers over the year while jobs for electrical engineers are growing strongly again. However, it is not all good news. In the civil engineering sub-sector, positions have fallen as a response to a weaker civil construction program, while growth has slowed in the chemical engineering sub-sector, reflecting the difficulty in finding suitable people.

In WA, hydrologists continue to be in strong demand, as do senior environmental advisors with mining project experience. Mechanical engineers with experience working on resources processing and materials handling projects are also being sought. The significant size of several gas extraction (LNG) projects underway, including the Gorgon project off the north-west coast of WA, will see demand remain strong for engineers specialising in this area.

With the economy gathering pace, the Mining sector remaining solid and the Construction sector recovering, the demand for engineers will only grow. The EMDA model is forecasting that engineering positions will be growing at 7.7% p.a. by November 2013. This growth will mean that skills shortages in this category will worsen, more pressure will be applied to salaries, and there will be an increase in the need to recruit engineers from overseas.

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07

AUS. ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. AUS. QUARTERLY GROWTH % p.a.



(%)


(%)

May 13 163 8.1 1.1

Aug 13 166 8.9 1.8

Nov 13 168 7.7 1.2

19




last quarter


F

Mining Although some unprofitable mines are shedding jobs, overall growth continues

DRIVER SUMMARY

Engineering Construction

Trade Weighted Index �

Mining Confidence

Composite Index


The Mining sector continues to be a very strong performer for Australia, with jobs growing at an annual rate of 15.1% to the year ended February 2013. Growth over the last 10 years has been spectacular, with this sector adding 183,000 jobs. It has grown more than 300% in that time.

However, growth has slowed in recent times, due to a number of reasons. Commodity prices have become more volatile - forcing some unprofitable mines to shed staff - and may well have peaked. Further, the political landscape in Australia is less certain with mining-related taxes, industrial relations issues and the need for government investment in infrastructure all high on the agenda. Competition from overseas is also expanding as other mines come into operation or expand, while salary levels are generally very high, placing pressure on costs. These factors mean that overall,

the industry is still experiencing solid demand but costs are higher. Despite these issues, planned investment is 33% higher in the December 2013 quarter than it was in December 2012. This will provide a foundation for continued jobs growth, although at a slower pace.

Mining has the lowest share of part time jobs of any sector. Part timers comprise just 3% of the workforce, a level that has remained largely unchanged for years.

With commodity prices trending up, business confidence in this sector is growing again. But the issues outlined above mean that growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace. Even so, the EMDA model shows growth of 2.2% in the November 2013 quarter, meaning mining will remain one of Australia’s fastest growing industries.

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 273 9.8 1.6

Aug 13 278 6.7 1.7

Nov 13 284 7.1 2.2


STATE ANNUAL GROWTH % p.a. (YE February 2013)

WA 15.9

SA 44.7

QLD 17.5

VIC 6.3

NSW 8.7

20




last quarter


F

Information & Communication Technology This sector is picking up some steam

DRIVER SUMMARY

GDP

Business Cap-Ex

Employment Intentions

Composite Index


The Information and Communication Technology occupations grew a healthy 5.5% in the year to February 2013, adding 25,000 jobs to the sector. Positions for professionals grew 3.4% while management roles have recovered and continue to grow strongly (10.7). After a decline in 2012 amongst web designers, this sub-sector is growing again, while jobs for trainers are also growing following a dismal 2011.

State-wise, the ICT sector is growing solidly in all states other than in WA, which is a little softer and more a reflection of finding suitable staff. Organisations across the board often have trouble attracting eastern seaboard professionals to WA, and that is the case in this category. In SA, jobs have recovered after some steep reductions last

year. NSW is experiencing growth in line with the overall economic growth of that state, while in Victoria the growth points to better times soon as business confidence grows and the willingness to commence new projects increases. In Queensland, jobs continue to grow after steep declines in 2010.

Overall, the outlook for this sector continues to be quite bright. Major upgrade work is underway in corporate Australia, the rollout of the National Broadband Network and better business confidence are all positive aspects. The result is the ICT industry is forecast to continue to grow, with jobs growing at 4.2% p.a. by the year ended November 2013.

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07




(%)


(%)

May 13 491 5.2 0.8

Aug 13 496 5.2 0.9

Nov 13 501 4.2 1.0


WA -3.4

SA 7.4

QLD 2.9

VIC 8.2

NSW 4.7

21




last quarter


F

RetailThis sector is starting to lift out the doldrums

DRIVER SUMMARY

Private Consumption

Imports

Retail Confidence

Composite Index


Jobs have started to grow again in this sector during the last quarter, with clear signs the market is turning. Now that the European debt situation has stabilised somewhat, consumer confidence has improved to a point where it is only just below what it was prior to the GFC. Reductions in interest rates have also contributed and savings levels have reached their peak. Retail sales are starting to grow again and this has supported the growth in jobs in the last quarter. Currently, retail sales are growing at 3.4% over the year to January 2013, an increase from 2.1% at the beginning of last year. Retail positions based around e-retailing are growing strongly, whereas store-based positions are still softening.

Retail sales in NSW have lifted slightly but are still fairly subdued and so the job market is still soft. In Victoria, sales growth is

expanding, albeit at a slow rate, yet the job market has improved. In Queensland, spending has softened, and although the rate of decline has slowed, the job market is still weaker. In WA, retail sales are still powering along but growth has slowed and this has resulted in a slowdown in the growth of jobs. In SA, retail sales are falling and so are jobs. This reflects the weak economy in that state.

With input continuing to be more positive, plus business and consumer confidence maintaining improvement, combined with lower interest rates, the outlook for this sector has improved. The EMDA model is forecasting growth of 1.5% on an annual basis by November 2013.

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 1,220 0.6 0.3

Aug 13 1,226 1.3 0.4

Nov 13 1,231 1.5 0.4



WA 2.3

SA -2.4

QLD -1.3

VIC 4.4

NSW -3.2

22




last quarter


F

Tourism & Hospitality This sector is turning around with jobs growing again

DRIVER SUMMARY

Aus. GDP, Private Consumption

OECD Economic Growth

Exchange Rate �


Composite Index


Jobs growth has returned to this sector after a poor 2012, with positions growing at 2.1% p.a. in the year to February 2013.

The domestic tourism market is better, improving in the year to December 2012 with an eighth consecutive quarter of increased domestic visitors. Over the year, there were 2.5 million additional domestic overnight visitors across Australia. This generated increased spending of 3% by Australians in Australia in the year to December 2012. The trend towards holidaying close to home plus continued growth in more affordable forms of travel - such as Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) and the least expensive of all forms of domestic travel, the day trip – unfolded further in 2012 as consumers continued to look for ways to save.

There was also improvement on the international visitor front. In the year to December 2012, the number of international visitors to

Australia grew by 4%. VFR travel delivered the strongest growth at 8%, however holiday visitation also increased by 4%. China grew as a global force in tourism with significant increases in visitors and expenditure across the world, including Australia. There are also signs that the high yield European markets have started to turn around recent declines.

At the state level, Queensland is showing small growth, while WA and SA are still soft. Victoria and NSW are also growing again. With the domestic and international tourism improving, the outlook for the states is better as well.

The number of Australians travelling out of Australia continues to be a dampener, although growth is slowing. However, the net result is this market is forecast to continue to expand, with an annual growth rate of 3.8% expected by November 2013.

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07




(%)


(%)

May 13 788 3.3 0.7

Aug 13 793 3.8 0.5

Nov 13 798 3.8 0.7


WA -2.4

SA -5.3

QLD -0.3

VIC 6.7

NSW -4.7

23




last quarter


F

Media & Marketing This sector is well up from the trough of 2011

DRIVER SUMMARY

Aus. GDP


Composite Index


The Media and Marketing sector employed 293,000 people in the year to February 2013 and grew an impressive 3.1% over the year after a terrible 2011. This sector is one of the most responsive to the state of the economy. As the economy and business confidence improves, jobs growth is anticipated to return.

In a sign of some improvement in conditions, positions for advertising and marketing professionals are growing again after a very weak 2011 and first half of 2012, although management positions in this sector are weak. In a surprising turnaround, positions for journalists and other writers continue to grow, thanks to the spurt in on-line content at the expense of more traditional media.

At the state level, positions in NSW are growing again on an annual basis (1.7%) after a woeful 2011. Victoria is also experiencing a return to growth (10.9%) after a very slow 2011. Positions are growing again in Queensland (7.1%), while in SA conditions are soft. WA has also been strong, but finding suitable candidates has been an issue.

The outlook for this sector is better as economic uncertainty starts to fade and business confidence grows. The EMDA model is forecasting that the sector will continue to grow, with jobs increasing over the next six months. Growth of 1.5% is forecast by the November 2013 quarter.

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07




(%)


(%)

May 13 294 0.4 0.2

Aug 13 298 1.0 1.3

Nov 13 302 1.7 1.5

24




last quarter


F

Human Resources & RecruitmentAfter a woeful second half of 2012 and weak first quarter, growth is forecast

DRIVER SUMMARY

Aus. GDP

Employment Confidence

Composite Index


The Human Resources and Recruitment sector is very responsive to the state of business play. As confidence stalled in mid-2012, due to new concerns about the European debt situation, so also did recruitment in this sector. In the year to February 2013, jobs fell by 7.0%, a rate not much lower than the depths this sector reached at the start of the GFC. Positions for managers grew, although the rate slowed down considerably. This growth is a result of businesses focusing more on the bottom line, with HR managers in high demand to work directly with senior executives on streamlining policies, adjusting procedures and managing human resources in the most efficient manner. While positions for training/development professionals and human resources professionals fell, the good news is that with business confidence rising, this sector is forecast to turn around.

At the state level, jobs are trending upwards in NSW as the economy expands further. In Victoria, positions have contracted as the economy has softened, diminishing the demand for recruitment services. In a direct correlation with the strength of their economies, positions are flat in Queensland, while in WA jobs are still growing strongly, although the rate of growth has declined. In SA, jobs are increasing a little, but after a very weak year in 2012.

As for the future, with the economy picking up and business confidence improving, the jobs outlook is better after a poor February 2013 quarter. Growth is forecast to increase to a solid 2.5% by the November 2013 quarter. This is a reasonable rate but still below pre-GCF levels.

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 134 -8.0 0.8

Aug 13 137 -5.2 2.2

Nov 13 141 0.7 2.5


25




last quarter


F

Health & Community Services This sector continues to grow as it usually does

DRIVER SUMMARY

GDP

Popn. Aged 65+

Unemployment

Composite Index


This sector continues to grow as per usual, and is expanding at a rate well ahead of the overall average, with jobs up 3.4%. Jobs in hospitals continue to grow (0.8%). Reflecting the ageing of the population, jobs in the residential care sector are also growing (0.5%) although slowing a little. Jobs in Community Services are also growing (4.1%) despite the continued growth in the economy, highlighting that for some segments of the population conditions are still tough.

There are continual shortages of medical staff. In WA, health care professionals are in strong demand due to the robust population growth in that state. Nurses are in short supply, a situation that has existed for years.

This sector has a high proportion working part time – currently 42.8% of workers. Nevertheless, part time roles continue to increase, with jobs up 3.8%. Full time jobs are growing at a lower pace, at just over 3%.

Jobs are growing in all states other than Victoria, where there has been a slight decline. In SA, positions are growing and this is one of the few growth sectors in that state. In Queensland and NSW, jobs are growing as well.

With skills shortages still apparent in some areas and a reasonable level of vacancies, the job outlook in this sector remains solid. By November 2013, jobs are expected to be growing at an annual rate of 3.4% with a continued shortage of suitable staff and candidates.

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07




(%)


(%)

May 13 1,381 2.8 0.6

Aug 13 1,392 2.8 0.8

Nov 13 1,407 3.4 1.0


WA 2.8

SA 9.9

QLD 3.7

VIC -0.3

NSW 3.8

26




last quarter


F

EducationPopulation growth will see this sector continue to rise

DRIVER SUMMARY

Real GDP

Popn. Aged 14–65

Composite Index


The Education sector has shrugged off the weakness in the international student sub-sector to record continued jobs growth, with positions up 4.6%. A notable surge is in pre-school teacher positions. However, with many preferring to seek primary qualifications, in order to gain higher salaries and more holidays, there is a significant shortage of early childhood teachers. Meanwhile, other sectors are growing as well, with school education jobs up 4.0% and positions in the tertiary education sector up 3.4%. One area of weakness is in the TAFE sub-sector, where state budget cutbacks are having a dampening influence. Nevertheless, all states are recording jobs growth again, despite Government cutbacks.

Full time jobs are growing strongly in this sector, rising 5.2% over the year. This is another sector that has a relatively high level of part timers, with 38.3% of the workforce now working part time.

Although the international student sub-sector has been weak, it is expected to return to growth as the world economic situation improves. A recent Government report indicates it could grow by 30% by the end of the decade. This would generate $19 billion, making it one of our largest markets. Continued population growth in Australia and the investment in skills and training programs means that the outlook for this sector is one of optimism over the next year, with jobs growth rising to 4.1% annually by November 2013.

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 911 4.8 1.0

Aug 13 917 4.4 0.7

Nov 13 925 4.1 0.8



WA 4.3

SA 5.4

QLD 2.5

VIC 5.8

NSW 4.5


WA 2.8

SA 9.9

QLD 3.7

VIC -0.3

NSW 3.8

27




last quarter


F

Government Public Sector cuts are taking a toll on this sector

DRIVER SUMMARY

Non-farm GDP

Private Consumption


Composite Index


The much talked about Public Sector staff level reductions are getting some traction, with jobs down 3.8% in the year to February 2013. This is a reduction of 28,000 staff over the course of the year and further cutbacks can be expected, although not at the same rate. Continued economic growth will begin to help all governments balance the books.

Despite the spending reductions at the Federal Government level, jobs are growing, but only by 0.9% annually. The main decrease in job numbers comes via the State Governments, where jobs are down 2.1%. Meanwhile, Local Government continues to grow, with positions up 2.2%.

The cuts in spending are most apparent in NSW, where job numbers have fallen by 8.8%. Not even WA has been immune, with its government enforcing job reductions. In Queensland the announced cuts are impacting and more can be expected. Only SA is recording growth, but this comes after large reductions in the first half of 2012.

Although more cuts can be expected in the short term, renewed growth in the economy will mean a boost in government revenue, reducing the need for further trimming. This should lead to jobs starting to increase again by the end of the year. A key driver will be the overall population growth and the necessity for services that such growth generates.

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07




(%)


(%)

May 13 700 -3.9 -0.3

Aug 13 699 -2.5 -0.1

Nov 13 701 -0.9 0.2


WA -4.7

SA 1.9

QLD -0.3

VIC -3.4

NSW -8.8

28




last quarter


F


WA -4.7

SA 1.9

QLD -0.3

VIC -3.4

NSW -8.8

29

Financial ServicesA return to jobs growth is forecast by the end of the year

DRIVER SUMMARY

Housing Cap-Ex

Non-residential building

Construction

Finance Confidence

Composite Index


The Financial and Insurance Services sector softened after very strong growth in 2011. The reduction in numbers can be attributed to the ‘Big Four’ banks reducing staff. Full time job numbers are flat, while part time positions are falling. In this sector, the proportion of part time workers has remained fairly constant in recent times, at 17%.

Despite the fairly soft market overall, there are pockets of activity. There is demand in the financial and wealth management areas, specifically for senior financial planners, multilingual financial planners and financial paraplanners. On the insurance side, there is strong demand for life insurance claims assessors, brokers and account managers.

NSW still has the largest Financial Services sector, but with the major employers trimming numbers, jobs fell slightly. Queensland has returned to growth after numbers were reduced in 2012. In Victoria, job numbers are still falling, although the rate of decline has slowed considerably. WA, with its rapidly expanding economy, has seen further growth in positions, whereas in SA jobs are down, reflecting the challenging economic environment in that state.

Business confidence in this sector has improved considerably since the middle of June 2012. Combined with stronger economic growth, this means that the outlook is better for the sector, with jobs rising by 0.2% in the November 2013 quarter.

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 418 -2.1 -0.4

Aug 13 419 -1.5 0.1

Nov 13 420 -0.8 0.2



WA* 2.2

SA* -3.4

QLD 8.7

VIC -2.8

NSW -2.2

*2 year average shown due to sample size




last quarter


F

Property & Business Services This sector is growing solidly again

DRIVER SUMMARY

Non-farm GDP

Private Consumption

Finance Confidence

Composite Index


This sector is continuing to grow, with positions climbing 4.6% in the year to January 2013. Legal and accounting positions have been growing again, with jobs up 7.7% after a fairly dismal first half of 2012. In a further sign that business confidence is improving, advertising service positions are growing again, with jobs up 5.4%. Management consulting positions are also on the rise again, with jobs growing 8.6% after some reduction in workforce levels in 2012.

There are a number of areas where there is quite strong demand for people. This includes project managers, assistant development managers, property analysts and - especially in WA - residential and commercial property managers. Other areas in demand include landscape architects, health care planners and architects. WA is also generating strong demand for legal workers such a commercial property lawyers, workers’ rights lawyers and lawyers specialising in mining.

All states are showing some growth in this sector. In Victoria, positions are growing despite the relatively weak economy. The strength of the WA economy is evident with jobs continuing to grow strongly, property and business professionals notably in demand to support the Mining sector and related activities. SA is recovering after a dismal 2012 and in Queensland a recovery in jobs growth is underway.

With business confidence improving, jobs growth is forecast to continue with positions increasing by 1.0% in the November 2013 quarter.

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07




(%)


(%)

May 13 1,126 2.8 0.4

Aug 13 1,134 2.3 0.6

Nov 13 1,145 2.2 1.0


WA 7.3

SA 9.2

QLD 2.2

VIC 5.5

NSW 2.5

30




last quarter


F


WA 7.3

SA 9.2

QLD 2.2

VIC 5.5

NSW 2.5

31

Construction & PropertyAt last jobs are turning around in this sector

DRIVER SUMMARY

Non-Farm GDP

Private Consumption

Residential Investment

Construction Confidence

Composite Index


This sector has been feeling the effects of the renewed uncertainty, starting from the middle of 2011. But in the last quarter, the industry has started to turn around, with jobs increasing by 0.4%, thanks to an improvement in the home building and apartment construction areas. With the value of residential building approvals increasing again (+3.0% in the year to January 2013), compared with the value of approvals declining 13% early last year, the outlook is improving for this sector. Lower interest rates have helped stimulate the market.

At the state level, NSW has experienced a decline but that is turning around with the value of building approvals trending up a substantial 20%. Jobs are still weakening in Victoria and the value

of building approvals is still soft, indicating a turnaround will be slow. In Queensland, jobs are returning but with building approvals flat, growth is expected to be moderate. SA is in a mild recession and the decline in jobs is consistent with the softening economy. On the other hand, WA is about to turn around thanks to a huge 29% surge in the value of building approvals in that state.

Considering the outlook, business confidence in this sector has really started to improve from the trough of 2011. This, combined with the lower interest rates, will see an improvement in the job market, particularly in the resource states. The EMDA model is forecasting that jobs will be increasing by 2.1% in November 2013.

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 1,008 -1.3 0.5

Aug 13 1,014 0.9 0.6

Nov 13 1,020 2.1 0.6



WA -3.6

SA -2.9

QLD 0.6

VIC -6.1

NSW -1.9




last quarter


F

Transport & Storage This sector is returning to growth after a soft few years

DRIVER SUMMARY

Business Cap Ex

Exports

T and S Confidence

Composite Index


With the economy still growing and confidence improving, jobs in the Transport and Storage sector have returned to growth, buoyed by a strong start to the year. Reflecting some weakness in parts of the economy, road freight transport is still softening, while positions in air transport are also still soft. On the other hand, rail freight positions are growing and jobs in the storage sub-sector are also improving strongly.

This sector returned to full time jobs growth, with these positions growing 1.0% in the year to February 2013. However, part time positions are falling, albeit only just, down 0.2%. Currently, part time roles comprise just under 20% of the workforce in this sector.

Jobs at the state level are more mixed. WA and Queensland are still growing jobs, thanks to the still strong Mining sector. In SA, jobs are weakening in line with the overall weakness in that state’s economy. NSW and Victoria are still losing jobs but the rate of decline has slowed. Six months ago, both states were losing jobs at an annual rate of more than 8% but now they are falling by just 0.7%, indicating that a turnaround is imminent.

Since June 2012, business confidence in this sector has improved significantly as the global situation settles and interest rate reductions kick in, stimulating the economy. The EMDA model is showing that growth will continue with an annual rate of 4.6%.

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07




(%)


(%)

May 13 581 2.7 0.7

Aug 13 586 4.9 0.8

Nov 13 589 4.6 0.7


WA 2.5

SA -0.7

QLD 3.4

VIC -0.7

NSW -0.7

32




last quarter


F


WA 2.5

SA -0.7

QLD 3.4

VIC -0.7

NSW -0.7

33

ManufacturingThis sector is still struggling under competitive headwinds

DRIVER SUMMARY

Private Business CapEX

Machinery & Equipment �

Exhange Rate

Manufacturing Confidence

Composite Index �


Over the years, the Manufacturing sector has declined in its importance to the Australian economy, yet it still accounts for 8% of the workforce. And while it continues to bravely battle against the buffeting headwind of the high Australian dollar, it is seeing some benefit of stronger domestic demand. These two counteracting forces have resulted in something of a stable job market recently, although the last quarter was weaker.

Despite the ongoing pressures, there continue to be success stories. Positions in machinery and equipment manufacturing rose 3.8%, while roles in food product manufacturing were up 2.6% over the year. Jobs in petroleum and coal product manufacturing are also growing.

This sector has a very low level of part time roles, with just 14% of its work force being part timers. Although this share is growing, growth is slow, at just 0.9%. Full time jobs are falling.

Turning to the outlook, business confidence in this sector has fallen recently due to the high dollar and the soft demand conditions and this in turn will impact on jobs. However, confidence is still higher than during the depths of the GFC. The net result is that the EMDA model is showing continued job losses, with positions falling by 0.1% by the November 2013 quarter.

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

Nov

02

May

03

Nov

03

May

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07



(%)


(%)

May 13 955 0.1 -0.3

Aug 13 953 -0.7 -0.2

Nov 13 952 --1.4 -0.1



WA 5.5

SA -7.1

QLD -7.2

VIC -1.0

NSW 5.4




last quarter


F

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island Employment Aboriginal employment growth outpaces the total population

DRIVER SUMMARY

Aus GDP

NAB Confidence

Mining Employment

Composite Index


Employment of Indigenous Australians has grown steadily since 2005, reaching a figure of 173,800 by 2011. In fact, in that year - the latest data available - total Indigenous employment grew 4.8%, nearly double the rate of total Australian employment of 2.5%.

This steady growth is due to a number of factors, including improved access to education and training, government programs and development of employment initiatives in organisations such as large mining companies. Growth in the Mining sector overall, providing opportunities to nearby population centres, has also sparked impetus. A good example of this trend is the approach of Rio Tinto. In the mid-1990s, less than 0.5% of Rio’s workforce was Indigenous, whereas now 11% of its Western Australian workforce

is Indigenous and growing strongly, making it the largest private employer of Indigenous people. BHP also employs significant numbers of Indigenous people in the Pilbara region, about 10% of its workforce there.

Despite this growth, the rate of Indigenous labour force participation is lower, and the unemployment rate higher, than for non-Indigenous Australians. Indigenous Australians are nearly four times more likely to be unemployed and tend to remain in that situation for longer. They are also more likely to be employed part time, with a greater proportion not in the labour force - 35.5% of working age Indigenous Australians compared to 21.7% of the non-Indigenous working age population.

200

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

20

13

20

14

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12


TOTAL JOBS(‘000)

CHANGE(% p.a.)

2012 Estimate 180.5 3.8

2013 Forecast 185.7 2.9

2014 Forecast 190.8 2.7

34

173.8(‘000) total jobs

in the last 12 months

4.8% growth in jobs in

the last 12 months to 2011


NB: Figures reflect latest ABS data available

F

35

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Island Employment – StatesQueensland employs the most Indigenous people

Source : ABS

Indigenous Australians are less likely to be self-employed than non-Indigenous Australians. They are also under-represented in professional, managerial, technical and trades based occupations. These circumstances are reflected in overall income levels and financial security. On average, Indigenous Australians earn just over half as much as non-Indigenous Australians – a median income of $400 per week compared to a median income of $608 per week.

Significantly, although unemployment is higher than the overall average, the rate fell in 2011 to 16.2%, dropping from 29.3% to 24.2% amongst young people. Unemployment is highest in regional areas, rather than in the capital cities or the remote areas. In remote areas such as the Pilbara, mining employment opportunities have contributed to the lower unemployment rate.

At the state level, Queensland employs the most Indigenous people, its level growing by 1.9% in 2011. NSW has the second highest rate, also growing very strongly during 2011. WA is similarly a big employer and thanks to the Mining sector Indigenous employment grew strongly there. In SA, Indigenous employment bucked the state’s overall low growth to record a big jump in jobs. However, Victoria’s weak economy and lack of mining related jobs resulted in a reduction in its Indigenous employment levels.

Turning to the outlook, with the Australian economy continuing to grow, business confidence improving and the Mining sector still buoyant, the outlook for Indigenous employment is for solid growth, with jobs rising 2.7% in 2014. Government assistance programs will also help growth, as will improved education and skills programs.

QLD 53,400/+1.9%

NT 17,700/-3.8%

NSW 50,100/+13.1%

SA 9,100/+16.7%

WA 22,100/+3.8%

VIC 12,000/-4.0%

TAS 7,600/+4.1%

STATE/TERRITORY TRENDS

TOTAL EMPLOYED % GROWTH FROM 2010


JOBS GROWTH % p.a.

TWILIGHT CAREERS (63+) BOOMERS (43—63) GEN Y (16-29) GEN X (30-42)

Aug

12

Feb

13

Aug

01

Feb

01

Aug

02

Feb

02

Aug

03

Feb

03

Aug

04

Feb

04

Aug

05

Feb

05

Aug

06

Feb

06

Aug

07

Feb

07

Aug

08

Feb

08

Aug

09

Feb

09

Aug

10

Feb

10

Feb

11

Feb

12

Aug

11

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Gen X, Y, Boomers, Twilight CareersTwilight Careers notch up another record job level

Source : ABS

The long-term revolution in the employment segments continues with Twilight Careers notching up another job record. The renewed concern about the economic outlook has resulted in the job market being flat for Gen Y. Other segments are recovering again.

The market has steadied for Generation Y overall, with jobs falling just 0.1% in the year to February 2013. However, there is a big difference between occupations. Amongst managers, positions are down 1.5%, whereas amongst professionals jobs are growing 4.0%.

Overall, jobs are still growing for Generation X, at a rate of 1.5%, but managerial positions are down 2.3%. Professional positions are growing quite strongly, with jobs up 5.1%.

For the Boomers, jobs are growing by 1.1%, with 4.4 million in this segment. Managerial positions are growing at 0.6% while jobs for professionals are expanding at 1.2%. However, positions for ‘tradie’ boomers are falling, down 1.2%.

Once again, the fastest growing segment continues to be Twilight Careers. A record 551,000 workers are in this segment and it is growing at 9.3%. Such has been the growth in this segment, that since the GFC one in five jobs have gone to Twilight Careers. Managerial positions are growing at 6.3% and professionals jobs at 9.3%. There are now 118,000 professionals classified as Twilight Careers. Trade positions are growing at 11.9%, making this segment the fastest growing. There are now 59,000 ‘tradies’ in this group.

36


37

Candidate Environment Index – AustraliaThe Candidate Environment Index is starting to show signs of life

Source : EMDA Model 2013

To help recruiters better understand the candidate market, Fairfax Employment developed a mathematical index of labour demand and supply for Australia and the mainland States - the Candidate Environment Index (CEI). The CEI measures the strength of the candidate environment by combining employment intentions, full time jobs change and job vacancies. It gives the recruitment industry an invaluable insight into the state of the labour market as measured by the availability of candidates.

When the index is above zero, the labour market is classified as ‘candidate short’. In these circumstances, recruiters will experience greater difficulty finding qualified candidates. When the index falls below zero, the labour market is classified as ‘candidate rich’,

whereby candidates outnumber jobs. However, even at these times there are often certain skills that are still in short supply. An example of this is in the area of specialist health care staff.

The CEI is showing signs of life as the reduction in interest rates helps stimulate the non-mining sectors. Improved business and consumer confidence is also helping, an aspect which in turn has been fuelled by the improved equity market. This is starting to signal that the holding pattern seen in the job market in the last half of 2012 is beginning to move into a candidate short market, although the level is a far cry from the numbers seen prior to the GFC and the ‘phantom’ recovery of 2010.

AUSTRALIA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

Feb

03

Aug

02

Feb

04

Aug

03

Feb

05

Aug

04

Feb

06

Aug

05

Feb

07

Aug

06

Feb

08

Aug

07

Feb

09

Aug

08

Feb

10

Aug

09

Feb

11

Aug

10

Feb

12

Aug

11

Aug

12

Feb

13

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40


Candidate Short (index above zero)

Candidate oversupply (index under zero)

Candidate Environment Index – StatesThe Candidate Environment Index at state levels are mixed

The Candidate Environment Index (CEI) at the state level is mixed. The good times in WA keep rolling along, although the CEI is not at the level of the peak of the boom times. NSW and Queensland are both showing a positive CEI, meaning that these markets are starting to tilt toward a shortage. SA and Victoria, although still experiencing index levels pointing to an oversupply of candidates, are showing signs of turning to a short market.

NSW CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

VIC CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

QLD CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

WA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

SA CANDIDATE ENVIRONMENT INDEX

80

30

-20

-70

Nov

02

May

04

Aug

03

Nov

05

Feb

05

May

07

Aug

06

Nov

08

Feb

08

May

10

Aug

09

Nov

11

Feb

11

Aug

12

Feb

13

CANDIDATE SHORT

CANDIDATE OVERSUPPLY

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Aug

12

Feb

13

Aug

03

Nov

02

Feb

05

May

04

Aug

06

Nov

05

Feb

08

May

07

Aug

09

Nov

08

Feb

11

May

10

Nov

11

CANDIDATE SHORT


80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

Aug

12

Feb

13

Aug

03

Nov

02

Feb

05

May

04

Aug

06

Nov

05

Feb

08

May

07

Aug

09

Nov

08

Feb

11

May

10

Nov

11


CANDIDATE SHORT

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Aug

12

Feb

13

Aug

03

Nov

02

Feb

05

May

04

Aug

06

Nov

05

Feb

08

May

07

Aug

09

Nov

08

Feb

11

May

10

Nov

11

CANDIDATE SHORT


80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

Aug

12

Feb

13

Aug

03

Nov

02

Feb

05

May

04

Aug

06

Nov

05

Feb

08

May

07

Aug

09

Nov

08

Feb

11

May

10

Nov

11


CANDIDATE SHORT

38



39

Australian Salary Review4% average growth in wages is forecast for Australia

DRIVER SUMMARY

GDP

NAB Confidence

Composite Index


Wages and incomes continue to grow steadily, increasing by 4.2% in the year to November 2012. Full time incomes grew a little less at 3.6%, while part time and casual wages grew slightly more, at just over 5%, as hours worked increased.

Wage and income growth varied across occupations. Amongst full time managers, incomes rose by 4.6%, while amongst full time professionals the increase was 4.1%. This reflects the recovery in the overall economy although this growth is still behind the levels achieved prior to the GFC. Incomes for small business owners have also improved, up 2.9%, but on average they only earn a third of what professionals and managers earn. Amongst the trades, full

time incomes have fallen 2.9%, largely as a result of the weakness in the construction industry. Unskilled workers continue to feel the brunt of the economic situation, with wages falling 1.5%.

With business confidence trending up and the economy continuing to grow, the wages outlook is one of growth. The annual rate of wages growth is anticipated to reach 4.3% by May 2014. This growth is slightly above the long-term average for Australia but the growth is not expected to be even. Incomes for managers and professionals are expected to grow at above average rates as the demand for these types of roles continues to grow.

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Nov

07

May

08

Nov

08

May

09

Nov

09

May

10

Nov

10

May

11

Nov

11

May

12

Nov

12

May

13

Nov

13

May

14

May

04

Nov

04

Nov

05

May

06

Nov

06

May

07

FORECAST TOTAL WAGES($ per week)

ANNUAL GROWTH IN WAGES

(%)

May 13 1,125 4.1

Nov 13 1,173 4.2

May 14 1,224 4.3


ACTUAL (Nov 12) TOTAL: $1,080 per week

4.2% annual growth

in wages


F

Retrospective

ABS DEFN. (12 Month moving average in 1,000s)

NOV 12 ACTUAL

FEB 13 ACTUAL

FEB 13 FORECAST

% VARIANCE FROM ACTUAL

AUSTRALIA 11,489 11,529 11,519 0.1

NEW SOUTH WALES 3,603 3,620 3,617 0.1

VICTORIA 2,875 2,884 2,887 -0.1

QUEENSLAND 2,338 2,339 2,348 -0.4

WESTERN AUSTRALIA 1,292 1,303 1,284 1.5

SOUTH AUSTRALIA 815 816 815 0.1

AUSTRALIA FULL TIME 8,081 8,099 8,080 0.2

AUSTRALIA PART TIME 3,408 3,430 3,439 -0.3

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS — AUS 3,994 4,014 4,058 -1.1

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS — NSW 1,306 1,297 1,318 -1.6

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS — VIC 1,052 1,061 1,050 1.0

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS — QLD 752 749 775 -3.4

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS — WA 416 420 419 0.2

PROFESSIONAL/MANAGERS — SA 272 270 276 -2.2

ENGINEERING 156 161 151 3.9

INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY

481 487 479 1.7

RETAIL 1,213 1,216 1,211 0.4

PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES 1,120 1,122 1,117 0.4

MANUFACTURING 965 958 954 0.4

HEALTH & COMMUNITY SERVICES 1,361 1,372 1,378 -0.4

CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY 1,000 1,003 997 0.6

EDUCATION 888 902 885 1.9

TRANSPORT & STORAGE 564 577 553 4.3

FINANCIAL SERVICES 424 420 427 -1.6

MINING 266 269 258 4.3

GOVERNMENT 708 703 708 -0.7

TOURISM & HOSPITALITY 769 783 770 1.7

MEDIA & MARKETING 295 293 298* -1.7

HUMAN RESOURCES & RECRUITMENT

145 133 131 1.5

AUS. WAGES ($) 1,080 n.p. 1,060** n.a.

* ABS revised the historical actual data forecasts, reweighted to take this into account ** November 2012 data

40


41

Glossary of Terms

FULL TIME

People who work at least 35 hours per week.

PART TIME

People who work less than 35 hours per week.

OECD ECONOMIC GROWTH

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s economic growth forecast.

GDP (AUSTRALIA)

Value of goods and services produced by the Australian economy.

NON-FARM GDP

Value of goods and services produced by the Australian economy but excluding agriculture.

GSP (STATES)

Value of goods and services produced at the state level.

UNEMPLOYMENT

People looking for either full time or part time work.

PRIVATE CONSUMPTION

Value of services and products bought by consumers.

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Value of investment in capital items such as buildings, machinery, etc.

CONSTRUCTION CAP. EX.

Value of investment in such items as roads, buildings, etc.

BUSINESS CAP. EX.

Value of investment by business in capital items such as plant and equipment.

HOUSING CAP. EX.

Value of investment in housing.

MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT

Value of investment in machinery and equipment.

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

Value of investment in residential buildings, including renovations.

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

Value of investment in buildings, excluding residential.

ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION

Value of investment in items such as mines, roads, bridges, etc.

TRADE WEIGHTED INDEX

An index of the average value of the $AUD compared with the currencies of Australia’s major trading partners.

IMPORTS

Value of overseas goods and services bought by Australians.

EXPORTS

Value of goods and services sold overseas by Australia.

NAB JOB INTENTIONS

Measure by NAB of businesses’ intentions to employ.

NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE

Measure by NAB of business confidence.


MethodologyBy analysing the key drivers contributing to overall state and sector employment changes, the Fairfax Employment Forecast provides employers and recruiters with the best gauge of employment prospects

EMDA employs a four-step process (see diagram), using EMDA proprietary methods to build employment forecasts for Australia and states. Forecasts are also built for key industries as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The Fairfax Employment Forecast is different from other market sentiment forecasts because it forecasts the actual job market in terms of total jobs. Rather than providing an index unrelated to the actual level of jobs, our forecasts give the industry a real gauge of future business intentions expressed in terms of actual persons employed.

HOW IT WORKS

First, a systematic analysis is undertaken at the national level for each industry sector and the market overall. This analysis identifies the macro-factors that contribute to the industry and total employment — these are termed “industry drivers”.

These drivers include macro-economic variables and business confidence inputs such as:

• Private Consumption• Gross Domestic Product• Business Confidence by sector• Population forecasts

INDUSTRY DRIVERS

Using EMDA’s proprietary method, the expected employment is mathematically derived from a combination of industry drivers. This involves the development of a composite index of relevant macro-economic drivers and real business inputs. In this way our forecasts combine the power of macro-economic forecasting with real business inputs.

• Australia• States• Industries• Expectations• Economic Forecasts

Identify using econometric methods and mathematical “drivers” for each industry and total overall.

Derive National, State and Industry forecasts.

Full report available via fairfaxemploymentnetwork.com.au

42

STEP 1Data Assembly

STEP 2Driver Analysis

STEP 3Industry Forecasts

STEP 4Copy


43

Disclaimer

FAIRFAX EMPLOYMENT FORECAST

Published by the Marketing Department of Fairfax Employment.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or stored in a retrieval system without the prior permission of Fairfax Media.

While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, Fairfax Media has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or business decisions based on this information.

©EMDA

This report is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of private study, research or review, as permitted under the copyright act, no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission. Inquiries should be made to EMDA.

Ownership of EMDA’s intellectual property (including EMDA Consumer Positioning Maps, EMDA Economic Modelling Methods) remains with EMDA. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or business decisions based on this information.

©EMDA 2013

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Research and forecasts by Michael Emerson, Economic and Market Development Advisers.

Project management, design and production by the Marketing Department of Fairfax Employment.


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