facts on future energy 110717

8/6/2019 Facts on Future Energy 110717

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By 2030, Global Demand forBy 2030, Global Demand forElectricity w ill be EnormousElectricity w ill be Enormous

More People x More Money x

Higher Living Standards =Exponentially Higher Demand for Electricity


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World Population is IncreasingWorld Population is Increasing3B3B 19501950

6B6B 20072007

8B8B 20302030

9B9B 2050205011 2050: 1B in the developed world, 1.4B in China,2050: 1B in the developed world, 1.4B in China,1.8B in India, 5.3B in developing world.1.8B in India, 5.3B in developing world.22

2007: 83% of growth (2.5B of 3B) was in2007: 83% of growth (2.5B of 3B) was in

developing countries.developing countries.33

2030: 95% of growth (60M people per year)2030: 95% of growth (60M people per year)will be in developing countries.will be in developing countries.33

2030: US will add 50M people, growing to 355M.2030: US will add 50M people, growing to 355M.

India will add 320M, China 170M.India will add 320M, China 170M.44

35% of 2050 growth in China and India60% of 2050 growth in rest of developing world.2


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Energy Needs Double by 2030Energy Needs Double by 203055

If (1) Americum is one unit of energy:If (1) Americum is one unit of energy:

as of 2007, we consume (2) Americums per year.as of 2007, we consume (2) Americums per year. China will soon consume (1) then add another (1)China will soon consume (1) then add another (1)

India will soon consume (1) then add another (1)India will soon consume (1) then add another (1)

Asia will move to (1)Asia will move to (1) Russia will move to (1)Russia will move to (1)

By 2030, the world will consume (8) AmericumsBy 2030, the world will consume (8) Americumsof energy per year.of energy per year.66

Each American consumes enough energy to sustain 100Each American consumes enough energy to sustain 100

people.people.77

1B people live a lifestyle comparable to US citizens.1B people live a lifestyle comparable to US citizens.2B are moving up, 3B are in poverty, and 3B will be born by2B are moving up, 3B are in poverty, and 3B will be born by

2050. Energy today meets the needs of 3B2050. Energy today meets the needs of 3B notnot9B.9B.


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Electricity Needs Double by 2030Electricity Needs Double by 203088

Developing world electricity needs willDeveloping world electricity needs will

more than double by 2030.more than double by 2030. Households rise by 900M, 90% in developing world.Households rise by 900M, 90% in developing world.

Global demand for AmericanGlobal demand for American--style electric appliances:style electric appliances:air conditioners, lights, tv, dryers, computers, phones.air conditioners, lights, tv, dryers, computers, phones.

US Electricity needs will increase 35% by 2030.9

40M plug-in electric cars in the US by 203010


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Supply Cannot Meet DemandSupply Cannot Meet Demand By 2050, the world will need 30TW of electricBy 2050, the world will need 30TW of electric

power.power.1111 The world generates 12TW now (4TW in US).The world generates 12TW now (4TW in US).

18TW are needed = 18,000 1GW nuclear power18TW are needed = 18,000 1GW nuclear power

plants. (1,000GW = 1TW)plants. (1,000GW = 1TW)

Global Electricity production will be unable to meetGlobal Electricity production will be unable to meet

exponential increases in demand.exponential increases in demand.

By 2020, more than 350GW of new electricity

will be needed in the U.S.12

Far higher by 2030.


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Demand is anDemand is an ExponentialExponentialProductProductDemand is more people multiplied

by more money multipliedby higher living standards.

Billions of people with more moneyBillions of people with more money1313 Billions of people improving their lives:Billions of people improving their lives:

Electricity enables economy and government.Electricity enables economy and government. Electricity enables technology and services.Electricity enables technology and services.

Electricity enables industry and education.Electricity enables industry and education.

Electricity powers computers, medicine, homes,Electricity powers computers, medicine, homes,businesses and communications.businesses and communications.


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How U.S. Generates Electricity:How U.S. Generates Electricity:50%

20%

15%7% 3% 2%

2007 U.S. Electricity Production by Source Fuel

Coal

Nuclear

Natural

Gas

H

ydro

Oil

Wo

od,

Geo,

Solar,Wind

TotalProduction

(%)

50

40

30

20

10

All solutions to generate electricity especially

under-developed alternatives will be needed.

Although coalAlthough coal

meets 50% ofmeets 50% of

current needs,current needs,it probably willit probably will

notnotmeet 50%meet 50%

of our futureof our futureneeds.needs.1414


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Prediction:Prediction:The Centralized Grid will be maxedThe Centralized Grid will be maxed--out.out.AADecentralized GridDecentralized Gridwill fill the demand.will fill the demand.

Decentralized Grid: Everyone generates electricity.Everyone stores electricity. Everyone trades

electricity. Enabledby new SmartGrid technology.

Residential and commercial buildings generateResidential and commercial buildings generate

electricity. Homes, vehicles and businesses storeelectricity. Homes, vehicles and businesses storeelectricity. Microelectricity. Micro--grid neighborhoods and newgrid neighborhoods and new

business models provide local electricity, closer tobusiness models provide local electricity, closer to

the consumer, with backthe consumer, with back--up from the main grid.up from the main grid.


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Centralized grid will support fixed sites inCentralized grid will support fixed sites indeveloped countries.developed countries.

Decentralized grid will support mobile platforms:Decentralized grid will support mobile platforms:vehicles and individual devices.vehicles and individual devices.

Decentralized grid will supportDecentralized grid will support allallsites insites indeveloping countries that lack an installed grid.developing countries that lack an installed grid.1616

In developing countries, decentralized electricityIn developing countries, decentralized electricitywill surpass centralized grid.will surpass centralized grid.17,1817,18

Just like ATMs, email, and cell phones already have.Just like ATMs, email, and cell phones already have.

Prediction:Decentralized Grid market will be enormous.15Most electricity will NOT come from utilities.


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ConclusionConclusion More PeopleMore People xx More MoneyMore Money xx Higher LivingHigher Living

StandardsStandards = Exponentially Higher Demand for= Exponentially Higher Demand forElectricityElectricity

Centralized generation will not meet DemandCentralized generation will not meet Demand

New decentralized sources of Electricity willNew decentralized sources of Electricity willaugment the Centralized Grid, especially toaugment the Centralized Grid, especially tosupport new technologies.support new technologies.

Electricity will compete on cost AND availability.Electricity will compete on cost AND availability.

By 2030, the New Market for Decentralized

Electricity Sources, Products and Services will be enormous.


11/17
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html


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NotesNotes FiveFive18.18. Every problem of the developing world is also an energy problemEvery problem of the developing world is also an energy problem. Electricity can solve a huge number of. Electricity can solve a huge number ofproblems in developing countries. Developing countries need elecproblems in developing countries. Developing countries need electricity for government (phones, fax,tricity for government (phones, fax,

computers, internet), medical clinics (refrigeration, computers,computers, internet), medical clinics (refrigeration, computers, internet), travel and communicationsinternet), travel and communications

(phones, computers, internet), schools (lights, computers, inter(phones, computers, internet), schools (lights, computers, internet), industry (phones, motors, computers),net), industry (phones, motors, computers),

homes (lights, phones, refrigeration), news media (computers, inhomes (lights, phones, refrigeration), news media (computers, internet, phones) and farms (pumps).ternet, phones) and farms (pumps).Competition in the global economy needs electricity. Fighting poCompetition in the global economy needs electricity. Fighting poverty, AIDS/HIV, and providing clean waterverty, AIDS/HIV, and providing clean water

needs electricity.needs electricity.

19.19. Renewable solutions do NOT compete with utilities solelyRenewable solutions do NOT compete with utilities solely

on cost. Average 2009 costs to generate electricityon cost. Average 2009 costs to generate electricity1919

CoalCoal .05.05 -- .07.07 kWhkWh

Natural GasNatural Gas .05.05 -- .08.08 kWhkWh NuclearNuclear .07.07 -- .09.09 kWhkWh

WindWind .06.06 -- .09.09 kWhkWh

SolarSolar .12.12 -- .18.18 kWhkWh

But note:But note:

Laptop batteryLaptop battery 4.004.00 kWhkWh AAA batteryAAA battery 1000.001000.00 kWh (at $1.50 per battery)kWh (at $1.50 per battery)20, 2120, 21

Energy costs are not just source fuel costs, but alsoEnergy costs are not just source fuel costs, but also availabilityavailability. We spend far more for the availability and. We spend far more for the availability and

portability of gasoline and batteries. Theportability of gasoline and batteries. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030, p24., p24.

20.20. AAA BatteryAAA BatteryPhysics for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the HeadlinesPhysics for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines..


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NotesNotes SixSix21.21. Units of Electricity. A kilowatt Hour (kWh) is a unit of energy:Units of Electricity. A kilowatt Hour (kWh) is a unit of energy: 1000 Watts expended over one hour.1000 Watts expended over one hour.In ten hours, a 100W light bulb consumes 1 kWhIn ten hours, a 100W light bulb consumes 1 kWh

1B people x 1 60W light bulb = 60,000 MW (or (120) 500MW coal po1B people x 1 60W light bulb = 60,000 MW (or (120) 500MW coal powered electric plants)wered electric plants)

1,000,000,000 (101,000,000,000 (1099

) people x 60W = 60,000,000,000W = 60GW) people x 60W = 60,000,000,000W = 60GW

1 kW1 kW == 1,0001,000 101033 WattsWatts

1 MW1 MW == 1,000,0001,000,000 101066 WattsWatts == 10001000 kWkW

1 GW1 GW == 1,000,000,0001,000,000,000 101099 WattsWatts == 10001000 MWMW == 1,000,0001,000,000 kWkW

1 TW1 TW == 1,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000 10101212 WattsWatts == 10001000 GWGW == 1,000,0001,000,000 MW = 1,000,000,000 kWMW = 1,000,000,000 kW


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http://www.sciam.com/http://www.google.org/http://www.cet.berkeley.edu/http://www.exxonmobil.com/https://us.jfcom.mil/sites/j5/j59/default.aspx

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