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  • 8/8/2019 f5707

    1/1

    160

    12010080

    605040

    30

    2015

    Percentsharestraded

    1284

    Target Price Range2013 2014 2015

    MCDONALDS CORP. NYSE-MCD 72.72 15.916.816.0 1.14 3.2%

    TIMELINESS 2 Raised 4/2/10

    SAFETY 1 New 7/27/90

    TECHNICAL 4 Lowered 9/3/10BETA .65 (1.00 = Market)

    2013-15 PROJECTIONSAnnl Total

    Pr ice Gain Ret urnHigh 105 (+45%) 12%Low 85 (+15%) 7%

    Insider DecisionsO N D J F M A M J

    to Buy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Options 2 1 2 2 5 2 3 1 0to Sell 3 2 2 2 6 3 3 1 0

    Institutional Decisions3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010

    to Buy 620 623 591to Sell 480 502 531Hlds(000) 763637 766530 749614

    High: 49.6 43.6 35.1 30.7 27.0 33.0 35.7 44.7 63.7 67.0 64.8 73.9Low: 35.9 26.4 24.8 15.2 12.1 24.5 27.4 31.7 42.3 45.8 50.4 61.1

    % TOT. RETURN 7/10T HI S V L ARI TH.

    S TO CK I ND EX

    1 yr. 31.0 25.33 yr. 61.9 3.45 yr. 159.8 26.3

    CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 6/30/10Total Debt $10626.2 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $3935 mill.LT Debt $10291.3 mill. LT Interest $565.0 mill.(LT interest earned: 15.9x; total interestcoverage: 14.1x) (44% of Capl)Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $1119 mill.

    No Defined Benefit Pension PlanPfd Stock None

    Common Stock 1,064,338,416 shs.(Options exercisable: 9.0%)

    MARKET CAP: $77 billion (Large Cap)

    CURRENT POSITION 2008 2009 6/30/10($MILL.)

    Cas h A ss ets 2063.4 1796.0 1665.5Receivables 931.2 1060.4 964.1In ven to ry (FI FO) 11 1. 5 1 06 .2 94 .4Other 411.5 453.7 442.5

    Current Assets 3517.6 3416.3 3166.5Accts Payable 620.4 636.0 578.0Debt Due 31.8 18.1 3 34.9Other 1885.7 2334.6 1669.9Cur rent Liab. 2537.9 2988.7 2582.8

    ANNUAL RATES Past Past Estd 07-09of change (per sh) 10 Yrs. 5 Yrs. to 13-15Revenues 8.5% 8.5% 6.0%C ash Flo w 9 .0 % 14 .0 % 7.5%Earnings 11.0% 17.5% 9.0%Dividends 25.5% 34.0% 9.5%Book Value 6.5% 6.0% 7.0%

    Cal- Fullendar Year

    QUARTERLY REVENUES($ mill.)Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31

    2007 5293 5839 5901 5754 227872008 5615 6075 6267 5565 235222009 5078 5647 6047 5973 227452010 5610 5946 62 00 60 69 2 382 5 2011 5750 6200 6600 6450 25000

    Cal- Fullendar YearEARNINGSPER SHAREA

    Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31

    2007 .63 .72 .83 .73 2.912008 .81 .94 1.05 .87 3.672009 .83 .97 1.15 1.03 3.982010 1 .0 3 1 .1 3 1.25 1.12 4.53 2011 1.08 1.22 1.35 1.25 4.90

    Cal- Fullendar Year

    QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID B

    Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.312006 - - - - - - 1.00 1.002007 - - - - - - 1.50 1.502008 .375 .375 .375 .50 1.632009 .50 .50 .50 .55 2.052010 .55 .55

    1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    6.00 7.00 7.69 8.32 9.16 9.82 10.92 11.61 12.15 13.58 15.01 16.20 17.93 19.551.30 1.49 1.63 1.76 1.95 2.15 2.29 2.23 2.16 2.36 2.88 2.98 3.43 4.06

    .84 .99 1.11 1.15 1.26 1.39 1.46 1.36 1.32 1.43 1.93 1.97 2.30 2.91

    .12 .13 .15 .16 .18 .20 .22 .23 .24 .40 .55 .67 1.00 1.501.11 1.47 1.71 1.54 1.39 1.38 1.49 1.49 1.58 1.04 1.12 1.27 1.45 1.674.48 5.36 6.02 6.45 6.98 7.14 7.05 7.41 8.11 9.50 11.18 11.99 12.84 13.11

    1387.4 1399.4 1389.2 1371.4 1356.2 1350.8 1304.9 1280.7 1268.2 1261.9 1269.9 1263.2 1203.7 1165.317.1 19.0 21.5 21.0 24.7 30.4 22.9 20.9 18.3 14.1 14.4 16.2 16.0 17.61.12 1.27 1.35 1.21 1.28 1.73 1.49 1.07 1.00 .80 .76 .86 .86 .93.8% .7% .6% .7% .6% .5% .7% .8% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.7% 2.9%

    14243 14870 15406 17141 19065 20460 21586 2278729.1% 27.2% 26.1% 25.6% 26.3% 26.2% 26.4% 22.3%1010.7 1086.3 1050.8 1148.2 1201.0 1249.5 1249.9 1214.11977.3 1772.6 1692.0 1831.4 2458.6 2509.8 2873.0 3522.63 1.4% 2 9.9% 3 2.7% 3 3.5% 2 8.3% 3 1.5% 3 1.0% 1.4%13.9% 11.9% 11.0% 10.7% 12.9% 12.3% 13.3% 15.5%d698.5 d429.0 d706.9 d600.4 d662.7 1813.4 617.2 d916.67843.9 8555.5 9703.6 9342.5 8357.3 8937.4 8416.5 7310.09204.4 9488.4 10281 11982 14202 15146 15458 152801 2.8% 1 1.1% 9.4% 9.5% 1 1.6% 1 1.1% 1 2.8% 1 6.4%21.5% 18.7% 16.5% 15.3% 17.3% 16.6% 18.6% 23.1%18.4% 15.6% 13.6% 11.1% 12.4% 11.0% 10.7% 11.5%

    14% 16% 18% 27% 28% 34% 42% 50%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 VALUE LINEPUB., INC. 13-15

    21.09 21.12 22.50 23.80 Revenues per sh 29.004.85 5.22 5.70 6. 10 Cash Flow per sh 7.353.67 3.98 4.53 4. 90 Earnings per sh A 5.901.63 2.05 2.25 2. 45 Divds Decld per sh B 3.001.92 1.81 2.25 2. 30 Capl Spending per sh 2.50

    12.00 13.03 12.75 13.45 Book Value per sh C 19.001115.3 1076.7 1060.0 1050.0 Common Shs Outstg D 1000.0

    15.8 14. 4 Bold figures areValue Line

    estimates

    Avg Annl P/E Ratio 16.0.95 .97 Relative P/E Ratio 1.05

    2.8% 3.6% Avg Annl Divd Yield 3.2%

    23522 22745 23825 25000 Revenues ($mill) 2900032.5% 34.2% 33.5% 33.5% Operating Margin 32.3%1207.8 1216.2 12 60 12 75 Depreciation ($mill) 14254201.1 4405.5 48 00 51 45 Net Profit ($mill) 590031.8% 30.4% 30.2% 30.5% Income Tax Rate 30.5%17.9% 19.4% 20.2% 20.6% Net Profit Margin 20.4%979.7 427.6 500 500 Working Capl ($mill) 650

    10186 10560 10300 10200 Long-Term Debt ($mill) 950013383 14034 13500 14100 Shr. Equity ($mill) 1900018.8% 18.8% 20.0% 21.0% Return on Total Capl 20.5%31.4% 31.4% 35.5% 36.5% Return on Shr. Equity 31.0%17.8% 15.5% 18.0% 18.0% Retained to Com Eq 15.5%

    43% 51% 50% 50% All Divds to Net Prof 51%

    Companys Financial Strength A++Stocks Price Stability 100Price Growth Persistence 70Earnings Predictability 100

    (A) Based on avg. shares through 96; dilutedafter. Excl. nonrecur. gain/(loss): 95, (1); 98,(8); 01, (11); 02, (55); 03, (25); 04, (6);05, 3; 06, 53; 07, (93); 08, 9; 09, 13;

    10, (3). Excl. cum. effect of accting change:02, (7); 03, (3); 04, (8). Incl. tax benefit:04, 7. Excl. tax benefit 05, 4. Next egs. rpt.mid-Oct. (B) Beginning 3/08 divds expected to

    be paid mid Mar., Jun., Sep., Dec. Divd.reinvestment plan available. (C) Incl. intang. At12/31/09: $2,425.2 mill. $2.25/share.(D) In mill., adj. for split.

    BUSINESS: McDonalds Corporation operates or licenses over32,465 fast-food restaurants in the United States, Canada, andoverseas, under the McDonaldsbanner (as of 6/30/10). About 81%are operated by franchisees or affiliates, with the remainder underthe control of the company. Foreign operations contribute around65% of systemwide sales and about 53% of consolidated operating

    profits. Sold stake in Pret A Manger in 2008. Spun off ChipotleMexican Grill in 2006 and Boston Market in 2007. Has about385,000 employees. Officers/directors own less than 1% of com-mon stock (4/10 Proxy). President & CEO: Jim Skinner. Inc.: DE.Addr.: One McDonalds Plaza, Oak Brook, Illinois 60523. Tele-phone: 630-623-3000. Internet: www.mcdonalds.com.

    Mc D o n a ld s C or p or a ti o n d e l iv e r e ds o l i d s e c o n d -q u a r t e r r e s u l t s . Earningswere $ 1. 13 a sh a re , a cou p le of p e n n i esabove our $1.11 estimat e and 16% highert h a n t h e ye ar -e ar lie r figu r e. G lob alcomp a ra b l e-st ore sa l es i n cre a se d 4 .8 %,w it h E u r op e s h ow in g t h e m os t s t r en gt h(comp s we re u p 5 .2 % o n t h e con t i n en t ).Hi gh e r comp s a n d l owe r food cost s su p -ported mar gins.Th e t h ir d q u a rt e r g o t o ff t o a g oo ds ta r t. In d e ed , g lob a l sa me -st ore sa l es

    jumped 7% in July, with the United Statesposting a 5.7% increase. Beverages, espe-cially the companys coffee drinks and a

    new line of fruit smoothies, led the chargei n t h e U .S . T h e h ot w ea t h e r w a s l ik el yr e sp on s ib le for s om e of t h e icy d r in k s b r is k s a le s, a t r e n d t h a t m a y w e ll h a v econ tin ued in to Au gu st . Over sea s,re st a u ra n t re mod e li n gs, e xt e n d ed h ou rs,a n d b re a k fa st offe rin g s a l l h e lp e d d ri vest ron g comp a ra b l e-re st a u ra n t sa l es. As aresult of this momentum, we now look fort h e c o mp a n y t o e a rn a b o u t $ 1 . 2 5 a sh a rei n t h e Se pt e mb er p e riod , 9 % h i gh e r t h a nthe year-earlier figure.R es u lt s s h ou ld b e s tro n g b ot h t hi s

    y e ar a n d n e x t. MCDs convenience an dv a l u e a re l u ri n g d i n e rs a n d i n c re a si n g i t smar ket shar e. Too, we look for beverages,b re a k fa st , cl a ssi c me a l s, a n d t h e Dol la rMenu to remain popular. Lower food costsand positive comps ought to support m ar-gins in the near term, but foreign currencymovements are a bit of a wild card. Over-all, we look for share net to increase 10%-15% this year. Additionally, we added an i ck e l on t o ou r 2 011 e a rn i n gs e st ima t e ,which now stands at $4.90 a share.T h e s e s h a r e s a r e b e s t s u i t e d f o r c o n -s e rv at iv e i n ve s to rs w i t h a p e n ch a n tf o r i n c o m e . The stock garners top scores

    for S a fe t y a n d P r i ce S t a bi li ty, a n d t h ecomp a n y s Fi n a n ci a l St re n gt h ra t i n g i stop-notch. Too, the dividend yield is abovet h e Va l u e L i n e m e di a n, a n d r e gu la r i n-cr e a se s t o t h e p a you t a r e t h e n or m . M o-m en t u m in ve st or s w ill a p pr ecia t e t h estocks Above-Average Timeliness ran k,though long-term accounts may be turnedoff b y t h e fa ct t h a t t h e s t ock i s t r a d i n gn e a r i ts a ll -t i m e h ig h, l ea v in g i t w it hbelow-average capital appr eciation poten-tial over the pull to 2013-2015. M a t th ew E . S p en cer S e p tem b er 3 , 2 01 0

    LEGENDS12.0 x Cash Flow p sh

    . . . . Relative Price Strength2-for-1 split 3/99Options: Yes

    Shaded area: prior recessionLatest recession began 12/07

    2010, Value Line Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.

    THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscribers own, non-commercial, internal use. No partof it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product. To subscribe call 1-800-833-0046.

    RECENTPRICE

    P/ERATIO

    RELATIVEP/E RATIO

    DIVDYLD( )Trailing:Median: VALUELINE