export value thai export to major destinations jun 2018 ... · jan 2017 apr jul 2017 oct jan 2018...
TRANSCRIPT
1
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data
Thai Export to Major Destinations
60708090
100110120130140
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Asian Export Performance
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)Ex.gold
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
EUJapan*
China
ASEAN5
ME
TH ex.Gold
TW
ID ex.Oil & Gas
SGMY
CN
KR
* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods
US
Jun 2018 = 21.8 Bn USDEx. Gold = 21.3 Bn USD
May 2018 = 22.3 Bn USDEx. Gold = 21.9 Bn USD
Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.
%YoYShare 2017P 2017P
2017P 2018P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun%MoM
sa
Agriculture 7.6 20.2 20.0 20.4 3.0 -1.6 7.8 -0.3 6.7 5.7Fishery 0.9 4.1 5.3 3.1 -1.4 9.3 -9.7 -9.4 -13.2 -0.1Manufacturing 87.5 10.2 9.0 11.4 12.4 14.1 10.7 11.6 8.6 -0.5
Agro-manufacturing Products
12.3 12.6 10.4 14.7 7.4 6.5 8.4 7.4 9.1 3.9
Electronics 15.0 14.0 13.2 14.8 12.4 13.6 11.3 6.4 12.9 5.3Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 6.7 5.6 6.6 9.6 3.6 4.6 4.7 2.1Automotive 15.0 6.3 2.4 10.0 15.1 15.8 14.4 19.6 7.0 -10.1
Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.2 7.6 6.7 8.7 9.7 7.7 5.6 6.3 -2.2
Petroleum Related 11.5 19.0 18.4 19.6 26.4 26.2 26.5 29.7 23.9 -3.5Total (BOP basis) 100.0 9.8 7.3 12.2 11.1 9.9 12.3 13.1 10.0 -0.1
Ex. Gold - 10.9 9.5 12.2 11.5 11.2 11.9 12.2 10.0 -0.4
Ex. Gold+Petroleum related
- 9.9 8.5 11.2 9.6 9.3 9.9 9.8 8.2 0.1
Export Value
2
Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2017
20172017 2018
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP
No. of tourists (’000)
35,381 17,324 18,058 19,482 10,609 8,873 2,755 3,025
%YoY 8.8 4.9 12.8 12.5 15.4 9.1 6.4 11.6
%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - 5.7 1.4 -1.5 7.7
Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100) Tourists Classified by Nationality
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Total China (share 28%)Malaysia (share 9%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 30%)Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%)
3
Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Semi-durable Index sa,3mmaDurable Index sa, 3mmaDurable Index sa
Jan 2014 = 100
Private Consumption Indicators
%YoY 20172017 2018
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2P May JunP %MoM sa
Non-durable index 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.3
Semi-durable index 0.7 0.6 0.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.3 0.8
Durable index 8.0 6.8 9.0 8.4 6.3 10.4 9.5 10.7 1.2
Service index 7.1 5.6 8.5 7.1 7.2 7.0E 6.7 7.0E 0.9E
(less) Net tourist spending 13.5 10.7 16.3 7.9 10.6 4.5 1.5 7.7 5.0
PCI 2.6 1.8 3.3 3.6 2.9 4.2 4.5 3.4 0.0
* Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index
Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
708090
100110120130140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Service Index sa, 3mmaNon-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index
90
100
110
120
130
140
859095
100105110115120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, saFuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
4
IndexJan 2014 = 100
P = Preliminary Data
Farm Income Real Income
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Farm Income sa
Farm Income sa, 3mma
Transfer of salary through Financial Institutions (Baht/person)*
Total Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma
Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT’s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer.2) Apr-Jun 2018 figures were estimated by the BOT
(%YoY) 20172017 2018
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun
Nominal farm incomeP 2.8 15.7 -7.8 1.7 -2.3 6.2 8.0 4.3
Agricultural productionP 5.7 10.8 2.0 12.0 11.3 12.9 13.5 8.2
Agricultural price -2.8 4.4 -9.6 -9.2 -12.3 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6
Contribution to Growth: Farm Income
4.3
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan2017
Apr Jul2017
Oct Jan2018
Apr
Paddy rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil palmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income
%YoY
Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT
60
70
80
90
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Jun 18 = 82.2
Average 5 years = 76.0
5
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
70
85
100
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011)P = Preliminary data
Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT
MPI Classified by Export Share
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
(%YoY)Share2011 2017
2017 2018
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoMsa
Food & Beverages 20.2 3.6 2.2 5.1 2.8 2.3 3.4 1.3 4.7 2.5Automotive 16.9 3.6 -3.3 10.8 10.6 11.3 10.0 11.4 10.1 0.0- Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 1.2 2.4 6.4 7.7 5.1 2.2 2.7 -3.1
- Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1 -7.8 10.8 12.3 12.4 12.2 15.1 13.5 2.1
- Engine 6.3 7.0 -3.5 18.8 14.8 14.3 15.3 18.7 16.1 0.2Rubbers & Plastics 10.0 7.1 0.8 13.8 -2.5 -1.7 -3.4 -7.9 2.7 4.8Chemicals 8.2 2.4 -0.8 5.7 8.4 8.9 8.0 7.8 7.3 -2.0IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 8.7 2.5 3.3 2.7 3.8 4.3 4.3 1.1Textiles & Apparels 5.5 -5.1 -2.9 -7.4 -6.2 -5.7 -6.8 -9.6 -7.0 1.3
Cement & Construction 4.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 2.9 1.4 4.5 6.9 7.1 4.7
Electrical Appliances 4.1 -6.9 -4.6 -9.7 -0.2 0.8 -1.2 -5.8 7.1 4.6HDD 3.2 14.0 14.2 13.9 13.2 10.2 16.3 18.9 11.7 2.5Petroleum 3.1 5.0 3.7 6.1 11.7 20.6 3.9 2.7 2.7 1.7
Others 16.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 0.3 -0.7 0.5
MPI 100.0 2.5 0.5 4.7 3.8 4.1 3.5 2.9 4.7 -
MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod
100.0 - 0.8 3.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.5 -
Capacity Utilization (SA)
- 67.1 66.1 68.1 68.7 68.2 69.1 69.5 70.0 -
70
85
100
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Export<30%30%<Export<60%Export>60%
6
Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.
Sources of Corporate Financing Bn baht
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-
17Fe
b-17
Mar
-17
Apr-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
n-17
Jul-1
7Au
g-17
Sep-
17Oc
t-17
Nov-
17De
c-17
Jan-
18Fe
b-18
Mar
-18
Apr-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
n-18
Business Credits (SA) EquityDebt 3MMA
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
70
80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)
Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction 1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100) Index sa
(Jan 2014 = 100)
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
% YoY 20172017 2018
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2P May JunP %MoMsa
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -0.8 -1.9 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.3E 1.6 -2.0E -3.2E
Construction Materials Index -0.9 -1.8 0.0 -0.7 -1.8 0.5 3.6 -0.8 -0.6
Real Imports of Capital Goods 3.2 2.0 4.3 4.7 2.8 6.6 1.5 8.8 -0.1
Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.0 0.9 1.2 5.3 3.1 7.6E 4.8 5.5E 3.0E
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 5.7 2.8 9.0 4.9 3.0 6.8 4.4 5.3 -2.6
PII 1.6 0.8 2.3 3.3 2.0 4.6 2.6 4.0 0.4
Capacity Utilization (SA) 67.1 66.1 68.1 68.7 68.2 69.1 69.5 70.0 -
Private Investment Indicators
7
Sources: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office
Billion bahtCentral Government Current Expenditure
(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)Billion baht
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018
010203040506070
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018Note: P = Preliminary data
1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)
Billion Baht FY2016FY2017FY2017P FY2018P
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 May Jun
Revenue 2,412 2,354 697 617 545 537 760 203 347
(%YoY) (9.3) (-2.4) (-6.9) (2.3) (-0.8) (9.5) (9.0) (-6.4) (8.5)
Expenditure1/ 2,736 2,795 641 593 945 599 731 185 299
(%YoY) (9.0) (2.2) (-1.3) (7.5) (2.2) (-5.8) (14.0) (-7.2) (33.1)
Budgetary B/L -324 -441 56 24 -400 -62 30 18 47Non-Budgetary B/L
-58 35 19 43 -31 21 51 -1 38
Cash B/L (CG) -382 -406 76 68 -431 -41 81 16 85
Net Financing 397 489 68 171 88 123 83 23 25
Treasury B/L 441 524 285 524 181 263 427 317 427
Jun0.3%
Jun7.1%
8
Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data
Jun 2018 = 18.9 Bn USDEx. Gold = 18.3 Bn USD
May 2018 = 19.6 Bn USDEx. Gold = 18.9 Bn USD
%YoYShare 2017P 2017P
2017P 2018P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun%MoM
sa
Consumer 10.3 7.5 4.7 10.2 16.4 20.3 12.7 9.2 7.5 -0.1
Raw material&Intermediate
53.3 15.7 16.9 14.5 20.4 19.5 21.2 14.6 20.4 1.1
o/w Fuel 13.1 26.1 27.6 24.7 40.6 29.6 51.6 26.2 62.5 1.9
o/w Raw mat&Interm ex. Fuel
40.2 12.6 14.0 11.4 14.0 16.2 12.0 10.8 9.2 0.8
Capital 25.4 8.5 10.0 7.1 5.4 6.7 4.2 5.7 4.7 0.5
Others 11.1 27.9 22.0 32.9 15.1 25.9 4.3 13.3 -16.9 -8.9
Total (BOP basis) 100.0 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 17.9 16.8 12.7 12.9 0.1
Ex. Gold - 10.7 11.0 10.5 17.8 17.7 17.9 12.5 16.1 1.1
Ex. Gold&Fuel - 8.3 8.5 8.2 13.8 15.5 12.2 10.0 9.1 0.9
Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.
Import Value
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Value Quantity Price
9
Labor Market Indicators EmploymentThousand persons
sa, 3mmaThousand persons
sa, 3mma
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Thou
sand
s
Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS)Agriculture (sa) (RHS)
Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT
Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT
Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Raw food (15.69%)
Energy (11.75%)
Core (72.56%)Jun
1.38%
Jun0.83%
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
% 20172017 2018
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun
Unemployment rate (sa)
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.21.2
(1.2)1.1
(1.0)1.0
(0.9)1.1
(1.1)
Employed persons (%YoY)
-0.6 -0.1 -1.1 0.4 -0.2 0.9 2.3 0.1
Underemployment rate
0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
10
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2017P2017P 2018P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE
Trade Balance 34.2 16.6 17.6 12.4 6.6 5.8 2.7 2.9
Exports (f.o.b.) 235.3 112.3 122.9 124.8 61.8 63.0 22.3 21.8
%YoY 9.8 7.3 12.2 11.1 9.9 12.3 13.1 10.0
Imports (f.o.b.) 201.1 95.8 105.3 112.4 55.2 57.2 19.6 18.9
%YoY 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 17.9 16.8 12.7 12.9Net Services, Income & Transfers
16.9 7.7 9.2 8.9 8.3 0.6 -1.7 1.2
Current Account 51.1 24.2 26.8 21.4 15.0 6.4 1.0 4.1Capital and Financial Account
-19.2 -12.8 -6.5 -10.5 -3.4 -7.1 0.1 -7.0
Overall Balance 26.0 10.2 15.8 7.6 12.0 -4.3 0.1 -5.3
11
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Net Financial Flows
Millions of USD 2017P 2017P 2018P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE
1. Assets -36,039 -20,273-15,766 -8,454 -5,003 -3,450 490 -4,960TDI -20,292 -9,016 -11,276 -7,088 -4,753 -2,335 -850 -990
- Equity -9,582 -2,788 -6,794 -2,366 -1,821 -545 -424 -51Thai Portfolio investment -11,968 -6,493 -5,475 2 -1,363 1,364 609 788
- Equity security investment -7,784 -3,656 -4,128 -3,604 -2,925 -679 351 -822- Debt security investment -4,184 -2,837 -1,347 3,606 1,563 2,043 259 1,610
Loans -1,007 -567 -440 -1,186 -28 -1,158 -35 -637Other Investments -2,771 -4,196 1,425 -181 1,140 -1,321 765 -4,122
- Trade credits -5,093 -798 -4,295 -2,357 -1,501 -856 -643 -5212. Liabilities 16,933 7,516 9,417 -1,399 2,230 -3,628 -425 -2,035FDI 7,944 3,999 3,945 7,495 4,601 2,894 1,391 845
- Equity 4,827 1,891 2,935 3,128 1,449 1,679 508 612Foreign Portfolio investment 9,401 3,808 5,593 -6,053 -884 -5,169 -1,853 -1,949
- Equity security investment 598 630 -32 -4,628 -696 -3,932 -1,671 -1,621- Debt security investment 8,802 3,178 5,624 -1,426 -188 -1,237 -182 -327
Loans 5,106 1,446 3,659 -1,624 -1,707 83 -113 -407Other Investments -5,518 -1,738 -3,780 -1,217 219 -1,436 149 -525
- Trade credits -1,750 -71 -1,679 -330 92 -422 85 -76Total Financial Flows (1+2) -19,106 -12,757 -6,349 -9,853 -2,774 -7,079 65 -6,995
12
Jun105.4
Jul110.9
Jul99.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Q120
18Q2
2018
Apr-1
8M
ay-1
8Ju
n-18
Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes
Jun 2018E
3.4
-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
THB CNY KRW IDR SGD JPY PHP TWD MYR INR GBP EUR
end of Jun 2018 compared to end of May 2018
20 Jul 2018 compared to end of Jun 2018
Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg
Exchange Rate Movement
(Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD)
% p.a.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
30-D
ec-1
522
-Jan-
1612
-Feb
-16
7-M
ar-1
628
-Mar
-16
22-A
pr-1
618
-May
-16
9-Ju
n-16
30-Ju
n-16
26-Ju
l-16
17-A
ug-1
67-
Sep-
1628
-Sep
-16
19-O
ct-1
610
-Nov
-16
1-De
c-16
26-D
ec-1
618
-Jan-
178-
Feb-
172-
Mar
-17
23-M
ar-1
718
-Apr
-17
11-M
ay-1
71-
Jun-
1722
-Jun-
1714
-Jul-1
77-
Aug-
1729
-Aug
-17
19-S
ep-1
710
-Oct
-17
3-No
v-17
24-N
ov-1
719
-Dec
-17
11-Ja
n-18
1-Fe
b-18
22-F
eb-1
816
-Mar
-18
9-Ap
r-18
3-M
ay-1
824
-May
-18
15-Ju
n-18
6-Ju
l-18
Latest data 20 Jul 2018
Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)
Index (Jan 2014 = 100)
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul
NEER REER USDTHB
Jul 2018(Average data until 20 Jul)THB Appreciation