export value thai export to major destinations asian ... · -1.57% jun ( ) share in core inflation...

12
1 70 80 90 100 110 120 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Jan 2020 Thai Export to Major Destinations 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 Jan 2015 Jul Jan 2016 Jul Jan 2017 Jul Jan 2018 Jul Jan 2019 Jul Jan 2020 Asian Export Performance Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) EU Japan* China ASEAN5 * ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods ** ex other manufacturing products US** %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data. Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data %YoY Share 2019 2019 P 2019 P 2020 P H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun Jun (%MoM) Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -3.1 -10.5 4.2 24.4 -17.8 -38.4 Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -9.9 -6.7 -12.7 -21.6 -15.5 3.4 Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -11.6 -3.0 -20.6 -31.7 -16.5 13.1 Agro-manufacturing 12.8 0.2 -2.2 2.7 0.5 3.3 -2.2 -11.5 2.7 5.4 Electronics 14.1 -6.7 -10.4 -3.0 -0.8 5.3 -6.6 -17.0 -4.6 12.8 Electrical Appliances 5.5 1.0 -1.4 3.9 -6.4 5.9 -18.8 -28.2 -7.7 17.7 Automotive 15.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.1 -27.0 -7.2 -48.1 -57.2 -38.3 43.4 Machinery & Equipment 8.4 -6.2 -4.8 -7.5 -15.9 -8.9 -23.4 -34.0 -22.7 10.5 Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.1 -10.5 -19.4 -17.8 -9.9 -25.7 -31.4 -15.9 7.1 Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -23.6 -24.6 0.9 Ex. Gold -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -12.3 -3.2 -21.4 -29.0 -18.4 7.6 Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related -3.4 -4.0 -2.7 -11.5 -2.3 -20.8 -28.7 -18.7 7.6 Export Value 1) ( ) represents export share in 2018 2) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018; Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%) 3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development Export by Firm Size Index sa (2015=100) CLMV Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand PH ID MY TH TW CN SG KR 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Total Large Exporter (52%) Medium Exporter (32%) Small Exporter (16%) Jun 20 ME May 2020 = 15.9 Bn USD Ex. gold = 14.6 Bn USD Jun 2020 = 16.1 Bn USD Ex. gold = 15.8 Bn USD

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Page 1: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

1

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Thai Export to Major Destinations

5565758595

105115125135145155

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EU

Japan*

China

ASEAN5

* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods** ex other manufacturing products

US**

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunJun

(%MoM)

Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -3.1 -10.5 4.2 24.4 -17.8 -38.4Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -9.9 -6.7 -12.7 -21.6 -15.5 3.4Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -11.6 -3.0 -20.6 -31.7 -16.5 13.1

Agro-manufacturing 12.8 0.2 -2.2 2.7 0.5 3.3 -2.2 -11.5 2.7 5.4Electronics 14.1 -6.7 -10.4 -3.0 -0.8 5.3 -6.6 -17.0 -4.6 12.8

Electrical Appliances 5.5 1.0 -1.4 3.9 -6.4 5.9 -18.8 -28.2 -7.7 17.7

Automotive 15.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.1 -27.0 -7.2 -48.1 -57.2 -38.3 43.4Machinery & Equipment 8.4 -6.2 -4.8 -7.5 -15.9 -8.9 -23.4 -34.0 -22.7 10.5

Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.1 -10.5 -19.4 -17.8 -9.9 -25.7 -31.4 -15.9 7.1Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -23.6 -24.6 0.9

Ex. Gold -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -12.3 -3.2 -21.4 -29.0 -18.4 7.6Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related -3.4 -4.0 -2.7 -11.5 -2.3 -20.8 -28.7 -18.7 7.6

Export Value

1) ( ) represents export share in 20182) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018;

Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%)3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development

Export by Firm SizeIndex sa (2015=100)

CLMV

Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

PH

ID

MYTH

TWCN

SGKR

707580859095

100105110115120125130

Jan-

15

Jun-

15

Nov-

15

Apr-1

6

Sep-

16

Feb-

17

Jul-1

7

Dec-

17

May

-18

Oct-1

8

Mar

-19

Aug-

19

Jan-

20

Jun-

20

TotalLarge Exporter (52%)Medium Exporter (32%)Small Exporter (16%)

Jun 20

ME

May 2020 = 15.9 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 14.6 Bn USD

Jun 2020 = 16.1 Bn USD

Ex. gold = 15.8 Bn USD

Page 2: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

2

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Value Quantity Price

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

%YoYShare 2019

2019P

2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunJun

(%MoM)

Consumer 11.2 3.0 1.4 4.6 -8.6 -1.6 -15.5 -22.2 -5.7 2.2Raw material & Intermediate 54.6 -7.2 -3.3 -10.9 -11.8 -0.1 -23.4 -37.3 -19.6 3.7

o/w Fuel 14.7 -12.4 -1.3 -22.1 -21.3 4.9 -47.3 -72.5 -32.6 61.9o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel 39.9 -5.1 -4.1 -6.2 -8.2 -2.1 -14.2 -21.5 -15.4 -5.4

Capital 23.5 -2.2 -7.1 2.9 -11.2 -4.1 -18.3 -27.5 -8.8 3.4

Others 10.7 -5.6 6.5 -15.7 -23.5 -6.4 -46.0 -48.3 -43.6 -1.0

Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -5.6 -3.5 -7.6 -12.3 -1.0 -23.4 -34.2 -18.2 2.0

Ex. Gold -4.1 -2.3 -5.9 -11.6 -1.6 -21.5 -32.9 -16.7 0.5

Ex.Gold&Fuel -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -9.5 -3.0 -16.0 -23.0 -13.9 -4.6

%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data

Import ValueJun 2020 = 13.8 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 13.4 Bn USD

May 2020 = 12.7 Bn USD

Ex.Gold = 12.6 Bn USD

Page 3: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

3

75

85

95

105

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20

(%YoY)Share2016R 2019

2019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoM sa

Food & Beverages 19.9 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -8.7 -11.0 -5.7 -6.5 -3.8 2.9Automotives 13.9 -5.6 2.1 -12.9 -42.4 -18.8 -68.5 -69.0 -57.3 30.2- Passenger Cars 4.8 -5.4 3.6 -13.6 -43.8 -19.9 -70.1 -69.1 -59.9 25.8- Commercial Vehicles 7.2 -5.6 2.4 -13.4 -42.0 -18.8 -67.8 -67.1 -55.0 31.1- Engine 1.3 -7.5 -4.7 -10.2 -40.6 -14.4 -69.7 -76.7 -62.3 50.9Petroleum 9.6 -5.7 0.2 -11.4 -9.9 -4.4 -15.5 -16.8 -10.0 1.7Chemicals 9.2 0.2 -0.6 1.1 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -2.0 -3.2 -0.4Rubbers & Plastics 8.9 -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -10.5 -5.4 -16.3 -21.6 -17.7 3.7Cement & Construction 5.5 -1.2 0.2 -2.6 -1.2 1.2 -3.7 -9.1 -7.7 -0.5IC & Semiconductors 5.5 -5.8 -3.1 -8.4 -1.8 3.6 -7.2 -15.6 -9.9 7.0Electrical Appliances 3.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 -13.3 6.8 -32.9 -44.6 -16.3 50.4Textiles & Apparels 3.5 -7.2 -4.8 -9.5 -16.1 -4.5 -28.5 -37.0 -25.3 12.8Hard Disk Drive 3.4 -5.3 -14.3 3.8 0.6 6.9 -5.4 -4.4 -3.1 0.5Others 16.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -11.0 -4.4 -17.9 -24.1 -20.0 3.9MPI 100.0 -3.6 -1.8 -5.5 -12.9 -6.4 -20.0 -23.8 -17.7 5.7MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

100.0 - -2.7 -3.1 -9.8 -0.7 -16.3 -6.8 5.7 -

Capacity Utilization (SA) - 66.0 67.3 64.7 59.2 64.1 54.4 52.2 56.0 -

** Index of work hours in manufacturing is not available from April to June 2020

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

455565758595

105115125

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Jul Jan 2019

Jul Jan 2020

Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand

Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand

3.7 %

17.5 %

3.8 %

%MoM sa

%MoM sa

2.5 %

0.2 %

Mar = -1.1 %**

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

Page 4: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

4

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100) Index sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

% YoY 20192019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2P May JunP %MoM

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -3.9 -1.2 -6.5 -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6

Construction Materials Index -0.6 1.4 -2.6 1.1 -0.3 2.7 -2.5 -3.3 0.6Real Imports of Capital Goods -0.9 0.1 -1.9 -14.5 -9.2 -19.6 -26.8 -13.7 -0.1Real Domestic Machinery Sales -5.4 -3.7 -7.2 -10.8 0.6 -22.5 -28.5 -22.6 3.4Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment -3.0 2.4 -8.7 -17.8 -11.7 -24.5 -34.7 -12.6 16.3

Private Investment Index -2.7 -1.2 -4.0 -10.0 -6.5 -13.5 -18.2 -12.1 5.7

Private Investment Indicators

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)

Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;

(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET

Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht

-150-100-50

050

100150200

Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan

Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA

2017 2018 2019 2020

Page 5: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

5

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

010203040506070

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020

Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Billion baht

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020

State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht

Jun-11.8%

Billion baht FY2018 FY2019FY2019 FY2020

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Apr May JunRevenue 2,513 2,540 551 777 597 648 537 537 154 134 249(%YoY) (6.8) (1.1) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.1) (5.4) (-2.5) (-30.9) (-18.8) (-35.0) (-34.8)Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 719 654 679 796 758 788 337 189 261(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (20.6) (28.5) (15.4) (15.2)Budgetary B/L -368 -435 -168 124 -81 -148 -221 -251 -183 -55 -12Non-Budgetary B/L -28 125 -21 123 52 -125 -15 -164 -17 -126 -21Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -416 -201 -181 -34Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -346 -198 -178 30Net Financing 506 190 99 -38 45 76 111 540 162 294 84Treasury B/L 633 513 289 497 513 316 191 315 152 266 315

Jun0.6%

Jun27.9%

Page 6: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

6

%YoY 20192019 2020

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoM sa

Non-durables index 2.3 3.1 1.4 -2.8 1.1 -7.0 -6.4 -3.2 2.9Semi-durables index 0.5 1.2 -0.1 -3.7 -1.6 -5.9 -7.8 -4.4 2.7Durables index -2.0 2.7 -6.2 -20.4 -12.0 -29.1 -32.0 -18.9 22.1Services index 2.8 3.1 2.6 -19.0 -9.9 -28.2 -28.6 -24.3 6.4(less) Net tourist expenditure 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -59.7 -41.0 -88.6 -86.8 -89.7 -21.8

PCI 2.5 3.5 1.6 -4.4 1.7 -10.3 -11.5 -4.7 6.0

90100110120130140150160

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma

Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Semi-durable Index sa,3mma

Durable Index sa, 3mma

Jan 2014 = 100

Private Consumption Indicators

Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad

Source: Bank of Thailand

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

1030507090110130150170

8090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100

Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**

Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Bank of ThailandNote: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand

Page 7: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

7

30405060708090

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Average 5 years = 76.2

Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand

-1.9-20-10

01020304050

Jan2017

Apr Jul2017

Oct Jan2018

Apr Jul2018

Oct Jan2019

Apr Jul2019

Oct Jan2020

Apr

Paddy Rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil PalmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income

Farm Income

Contribution to Growth: Farm Income%YoY

(%YoY) 20192019 2020

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun

Nominal farm incomeP 1.5 2.1 1.2 3.7 -0.1 -6.7 -6.2 -6.0 -3.2 -1.9

Agricultural productionP -0.4 1.2 -1.6 1.4 -3.5 -10.0 -13.8 -4.7 -0.3 2.7

Agricultural price

1.8 0.8 2.9 2.3 3.5 3.6 8.8 -1.4 -2.9 -4.5

Nominal Farm Income

Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

Source: NSO, Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Non-Farm Real Total Earning%YoY

Page 8: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

8

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)

2019 2019 2020YTD

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP

No. of tourists (’000) 39,797 19,769 20,028 6,692 6,692 0 0 0 6,692

%YoY 4.2 1.8 6.8 -66.2 -38.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -66.2

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - -41.0 -100.0 n.a. n.a. -

Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)

Tourists Classified by Nationality

Note: ( ) denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2019 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Page 9: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

9

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 22% of total jobless claims**

Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33*%, SA %, SA

Jobless Claims

Note: * Employees who contribute to social security system (Section 33) account for 31% of total employment.** 2020, 5-month average

Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

Jun-1.57%

Jun-0.05%( ) Share in Core Inflation

( ) Share in Headline Inflation

Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand

- 50

100 150 200 250 300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

OtherTransportationTradeHotel & TourismRestaurant & RecreationOther ManufacturingElectronicRubbers & Plastics

Lost Working Hours Index (Man-Month*) from the

Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75**)

Man

-Mon

th (1

,000

Wor

kers

-Mon

th)

Note: * Man-Month = Number of workers x ( Number of missing working days in a month / Number of days in a month)** The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees

reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour, calculated by Bank of Thailand

Page 10: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

10

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2019P2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE YTDTrade Balance 26.7 12.7 14.0 16.1 8.0 8.0 3.2 2.3 16.1

Exports (f.o.b.) 242.7 120.6 122.1 110.7 60.9 49.8 15.9 16.1 110.7

%YoY -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -23.6 -24.6 -8.2

Imports (f.o.b.) 216.0 107.9 108.1 94.6 52.8 41.7 12.7 13.8 94.6

%YoY -5.6 -3.5 -7.6 -12.3 -1.0 -23.4 -34.2 -18.2 -12.3Net Services, Income & Transfers 11.6 5.2 6.5 -8.0 0.9 -8.9 -3.1 -2.6 -8.0Current Account 38.4 17.9 20.5 8.1 8.9 -0.8 0.1 -0.2 8.1Capital and Financial Account -15.0 -7.6 -7.4 4.5 -6.9 11.4 2.3 2.7 4.5Overall Balance 13.6 5.6 8.0 15.4 4.5 11.0 1.1 3.5 15.4

Page 11: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

11

Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE YTD1. Assets -17,762 -9,348 -8,414 7,248 -2,845 10,092 1,781 709 7,248TDI -14,920 -8,256 -6,664 -8,211 -6,410 -1,800 -1,578 -1,871 -8,211- Equity -4,583 -3,176 -1,408 -4,689 -1,781 -2,908 -2,547 -182 -4,689- Reinvestment of earnings -1,051 -752 -299 -630 -312 -318 -126 -67 -630

Thai portfolio investment -8,060 -1,873 -6,188 2,179 52 2,128 -20 1,256 2,179- Equity security investment -2,542 -121 -2,420 -1,270 389 -1,659 -504 -781 -1,270- Debt security investment -5,519 -1,751 -3,767 3,449 -337 3,787 484 2,037 3,449

Loans 822 1,237 -415 -2,540 -703 -1,837 184 -1,050 -2,540Other investments 4,396 -457 4,853 15,818 4,217 11,602 3,195 2,374 15,818- Trade credits -832 -590 -242 3,854 531 3,323 1,088 516 3,854- Deposits abroad -435 -3,702 3,267 9,479 2,845 6,634 1,739 1,320 9,479

2. Liabilities 2,757 1,708 1,049 -2,710 -4,059 1,349 507 1,941 -2,710FDI 6,130 2,744 3,386 4,844 3,642 1,202 530 -64 4,844- Equity 3,143 775 2,368 2,350 1,332 1,018 329 244 2,350- Reinvestment of earnings 3,682 2,629 1,053 2,292 1,974 318 267 -217 2,292

Foreign portfolio investment -946 1,287 -2,233 -8,986 -7,281 -1,705 -1,187 1,600 -8,986- Equity security investment 56 840 -784 -6,779 -3,651 -3,128 -987 -734 -6,779- Debt security investment -1,002 447 -1,449 -2,207 -3,630 1,423 -200 2,333 -2,207

Loans 1,852 -1,064 2,916 3,321 725 2,596 1,728 -308 3,321Other investments -4,280 -1,260 -3,020 -1,888 -1,144 -744 -564 713 -1,888- Trade credits -1,701 -623 -1,078 165 -135 299 -278 289 165- Deposits abroad 945 838 107 461 664 -203 -282 505 461

Total financial flows (1+2) -15,005 -7,640 -7,365 4,538 -6,903 11,441 2,287 2,650 4,538

Net Financial Flows

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Page 12: Export Value Thai Export to Major Destinations Asian ... · -1.57% Jun ( ) Share in Core Inflation -0.05% ( ) Share in Headline Inflation Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated

12

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul Jan2019

Jul Jan2020

Jul

NEER REER USDTHB

Sources: Bank of Thailand and Reuters

% p.a. Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

July 2020(Average data

until 24 Jul 2020)THB Appreciation

Jun-20109.9

Jul-20120.1

Jul-20104.8

Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand

5.0%

3.3%2.8%

2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%1.0% 1.0%

0.5% 0.4%

-0.1% -0.2%

-2.7%

1.0%

-0.9%

0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

1.2%0.6%

0.1%

1.0% 0.9%0.3%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

IDR EUR THB GBP KRW SGD MYR PHP TWD VND CNY INR JPY

Avg of Jun 20 compared to avg of May 20

Avg of Jul 20 compared to avg of Jun 20

Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD

Exchange Rate Movement

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

29-D

ec-1

723

-Jan-

1813

-Feb

-18

7-M

ar-1

828

-Mar

-18

23-A

pr-1

815

-May

-18

6-Ju

n-18

27-Ju

n-18

18-Ju

l-18

10-A

ug-1

83-

Sep-

1824

-Sep

-18

16-O

ct-1

87-

Nov-

1828

-Nov

-18

21-D

ec-1

815

-Jan-

195-

Feb-

1927

-Feb

-19

20-M

ar-1

911

-Apr

-19

8-M

ay-1

930

-May

-19

21-Ju

n-19

12-Ju

l-19

5-Au

g-19

27-A

ug-1

917

-Sep

-19

8-Oc

t-19

31-O

ct-1

921

-Nov

-19

16-D

ec-1

98-

Jan-

2029

-Jan-

2020

-Feb

-20

12-M

ar-2

02-

Apr-2

024

-Apr

-20

20-M

ay-2

011

-Jun-

202-

Jul-2

024

-Jul-2

0

Latest data 24 July 2020July 2020(Average data

until 24 Jul 2020)

Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes

0

1

2

3

4

5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Q1-2

0

Q2-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jun 2020E

3.8