export value thai export to major destinations asian ... · -1.57% jun ( ) share in core inflation...
TRANSCRIPT
1
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Thai Export to Major Destinations
5565758595
105115125135145155
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100) Ex.gold
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
EU
Japan*
China
ASEAN5
* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods** ex other manufacturing products
US**
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunJun
(%MoM)
Agriculture 6.8 -8.4 -3.6 -13.4 -3.1 -10.5 4.2 24.4 -17.8 -38.4Fishery 0.8 -6.5 -12.0 -1.2 -9.9 -6.7 -12.7 -21.6 -15.5 3.4Manufacturing 87.8 -3.9 -3.5 -4.2 -11.6 -3.0 -20.6 -31.7 -16.5 13.1
Agro-manufacturing 12.8 0.2 -2.2 2.7 0.5 3.3 -2.2 -11.5 2.7 5.4Electronics 14.1 -6.7 -10.4 -3.0 -0.8 5.3 -6.6 -17.0 -4.6 12.8
Electrical Appliances 5.5 1.0 -1.4 3.9 -6.4 5.9 -18.8 -28.2 -7.7 17.7
Automotive 15.1 -3.1 -3.2 -3.1 -27.0 -7.2 -48.1 -57.2 -38.3 43.4Machinery & Equipment 8.4 -6.2 -4.8 -7.5 -15.9 -8.9 -23.4 -34.0 -22.7 10.5
Petroleum Related 11.4 -15.1 -10.5 -19.4 -17.8 -9.9 -25.7 -31.4 -15.9 7.1Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -23.6 -24.6 0.9
Ex. Gold -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -12.3 -3.2 -21.4 -29.0 -18.4 7.6Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related -3.4 -4.0 -2.7 -11.5 -2.3 -20.8 -28.7 -18.7 7.6
Export Value
1) ( ) represents export share in 20182) Firm size is classified by their export share in 2013-2018;
Large Exporter (> 0.1%), Medium (0.01% - 0.1%), Small (< 0.01%)3) Data include only firms that registered to the Department of Business Development
Export by Firm SizeIndex sa (2015=100)
CLMV
Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
PH
ID
MYTH
TWCN
SGKR
707580859095
100105110115120125130
Jan-
15
Jun-
15
Nov-
15
Apr-1
6
Sep-
16
Feb-
17
Jul-1
7
Dec-
17
May
-18
Oct-1
8
Mar
-19
Aug-
19
Jan-
20
Jun-
20
TotalLarge Exporter (52%)Medium Exporter (32%)Small Exporter (16%)
Jun 20
ME
May 2020 = 15.9 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 14.6 Bn USD
Jun 2020 = 16.1 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 15.8 Bn USD
2
Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Value Quantity Price
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunJun
(%MoM)
Consumer 11.2 3.0 1.4 4.6 -8.6 -1.6 -15.5 -22.2 -5.7 2.2Raw material & Intermediate 54.6 -7.2 -3.3 -10.9 -11.8 -0.1 -23.4 -37.3 -19.6 3.7
o/w Fuel 14.7 -12.4 -1.3 -22.1 -21.3 4.9 -47.3 -72.5 -32.6 61.9o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel 39.9 -5.1 -4.1 -6.2 -8.2 -2.1 -14.2 -21.5 -15.4 -5.4
Capital 23.5 -2.2 -7.1 2.9 -11.2 -4.1 -18.3 -27.5 -8.8 3.4
Others 10.7 -5.6 6.5 -15.7 -23.5 -6.4 -46.0 -48.3 -43.6 -1.0
Total (BOP Basis) 100.0 -5.6 -3.5 -7.6 -12.3 -1.0 -23.4 -34.2 -18.2 2.0
Ex. Gold -4.1 -2.3 -5.9 -11.6 -1.6 -21.5 -32.9 -16.7 0.5
Ex.Gold&Fuel -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -9.5 -3.0 -16.0 -23.0 -13.9 -4.6
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
Import ValueJun 2020 = 13.8 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 13.4 Bn USD
May 2020 = 12.7 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 12.6 Bn USD
3
75
85
95
105
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20
(%YoY)Share2016R 2019
2019 2020
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoM sa
Food & Beverages 19.9 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -8.7 -11.0 -5.7 -6.5 -3.8 2.9Automotives 13.9 -5.6 2.1 -12.9 -42.4 -18.8 -68.5 -69.0 -57.3 30.2- Passenger Cars 4.8 -5.4 3.6 -13.6 -43.8 -19.9 -70.1 -69.1 -59.9 25.8- Commercial Vehicles 7.2 -5.6 2.4 -13.4 -42.0 -18.8 -67.8 -67.1 -55.0 31.1- Engine 1.3 -7.5 -4.7 -10.2 -40.6 -14.4 -69.7 -76.7 -62.3 50.9Petroleum 9.6 -5.7 0.2 -11.4 -9.9 -4.4 -15.5 -16.8 -10.0 1.7Chemicals 9.2 0.2 -0.6 1.1 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -2.0 -3.2 -0.4Rubbers & Plastics 8.9 -7.2 -5.6 -8.8 -10.5 -5.4 -16.3 -21.6 -17.7 3.7Cement & Construction 5.5 -1.2 0.2 -2.6 -1.2 1.2 -3.7 -9.1 -7.7 -0.5IC & Semiconductors 5.5 -5.8 -3.1 -8.4 -1.8 3.6 -7.2 -15.6 -9.9 7.0Electrical Appliances 3.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 -13.3 6.8 -32.9 -44.6 -16.3 50.4Textiles & Apparels 3.5 -7.2 -4.8 -9.5 -16.1 -4.5 -28.5 -37.0 -25.3 12.8Hard Disk Drive 3.4 -5.3 -14.3 3.8 0.6 6.9 -5.4 -4.4 -3.1 0.5Others 16.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 -11.0 -4.4 -17.9 -24.1 -20.0 3.9MPI 100.0 -3.6 -1.8 -5.5 -12.9 -6.4 -20.0 -23.8 -17.7 5.7MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod
100.0 - -2.7 -3.1 -9.8 -0.7 -16.3 -6.8 5.7 -
Capacity Utilization (SA) - 66.0 67.3 64.7 59.2 64.1 54.4 52.2 56.0 -
** Index of work hours in manufacturing is not available from April to June 2020
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
MPI Classified by Export Share
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
455565758595
105115125
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand
Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand
3.7 %
17.5 %
3.8 %
%MoM sa
%MoM sa
2.5 %
0.2 %
Mar = -1.1 %**
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
4
Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100) Index sa
(Jan 2014 = 100)
% YoY 20192019 2020
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2P May JunP %MoM
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -3.9 -1.2 -6.5 -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6
Construction Materials Index -0.6 1.4 -2.6 1.1 -0.3 2.7 -2.5 -3.3 0.6Real Imports of Capital Goods -0.9 0.1 -1.9 -14.5 -9.2 -19.6 -26.8 -13.7 -0.1Real Domestic Machinery Sales -5.4 -3.7 -7.2 -10.8 0.6 -22.5 -28.5 -22.6 3.4Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment -3.0 2.4 -8.7 -17.8 -11.7 -24.5 -34.7 -12.6 16.3
Private Investment Index -2.7 -1.2 -4.0 -10.0 -6.5 -13.5 -18.2 -12.1 5.7
Private Investment Indicators
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
70
80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)
Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;
(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET
Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht
-150-100-50
050
100150200
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA
2017 2018 2019 2020
5
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
010203040506070
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020
State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht
Jun-11.8%
Billion baht FY2018 FY2019FY2019 FY2020
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Apr May JunRevenue 2,513 2,540 551 777 597 648 537 537 154 134 249(%YoY) (6.8) (1.1) (2.3) (2.5) (-11.1) (5.4) (-2.5) (-30.9) (-18.8) (-35.0) (-34.8)Expenditure1/ 2,882 2,975 719 654 679 796 758 788 337 189 261(%YoY) (3.1) (3.2) (19.9) (-10.5) (11.9) (-13.9) (5.4) (20.6) (28.5) (15.4) (15.2)Budgetary B/L -368 -435 -168 124 -81 -148 -221 -251 -183 -55 -12Non-Budgetary B/L -28 125 -21 123 52 -125 -15 -164 -17 -126 -21Cash B/L (CG) -396 -310 -190 247 -30 -273 -236 -416 -201 -181 -34Primary balance 2/ -258 -159 -178 313 -20 -207 -227 -346 -198 -178 30Net Financing 506 190 99 -38 45 76 111 540 162 294 84Treasury B/L 633 513 289 497 513 316 191 315 152 266 315
Jun0.6%
Jun27.9%
6
%YoY 20192019 2020
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoM sa
Non-durables index 2.3 3.1 1.4 -2.8 1.1 -7.0 -6.4 -3.2 2.9Semi-durables index 0.5 1.2 -0.1 -3.7 -1.6 -5.9 -7.8 -4.4 2.7Durables index -2.0 2.7 -6.2 -20.4 -12.0 -29.1 -32.0 -18.9 22.1Services index 2.8 3.1 2.6 -19.0 -9.9 -28.2 -28.6 -24.3 6.4(less) Net tourist expenditure 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -59.7 -41.0 -88.6 -86.8 -89.7 -21.8
PCI 2.5 3.5 1.6 -4.4 1.7 -10.3 -11.5 -4.7 6.0
90100110120130140150160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma
Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Semi-durable Index sa,3mma
Durable Index sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100
Private Consumption Indicators
Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad
Source: Bank of Thailand
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index
Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
1030507090110130150170
8090
100110120130140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100
Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**
Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Source: Bank of ThailandNote: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
7
30405060708090
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Average 5 years = 76.2
Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand
-1.9-20-10
01020304050
Jan2017
Apr Jul2017
Oct Jan2018
Apr Jul2018
Oct Jan2019
Apr Jul2019
Oct Jan2020
Apr
Paddy Rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil PalmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income
Farm Income
Contribution to Growth: Farm Income%YoY
(%YoY) 20192019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun
Nominal farm incomeP 1.5 2.1 1.2 3.7 -0.1 -6.7 -6.2 -6.0 -3.2 -1.9
Agricultural productionP -0.4 1.2 -1.6 1.4 -3.5 -10.0 -13.8 -4.7 -0.3 2.7
Agricultural price
1.8 0.8 2.9 2.3 3.5 3.6 8.8 -1.4 -2.9 -4.5
Nominal Farm Income
Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Source: NSO, Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Non-Farm Real Total Earning%YoY
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)
2019 2019 2020YTD
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP
No. of tourists (’000) 39,797 19,769 20,028 6,692 6,692 0 0 0 6,692
%YoY 4.2 1.8 6.8 -66.2 -38.0 -100.0 -100.0 -100.0 -66.2
%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - -41.0 -100.0 n.a. n.a. -
Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)
Tourists Classified by Nationality
Note: ( ) denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2019 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
9
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 22% of total jobless claims**
Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33*%, SA %, SA
Jobless Claims
Note: * Employees who contribute to social security system (Section 33) account for 31% of total employment.** 2020, 5-month average
Source: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY
Jun-1.57%
Jun-0.05%( ) Share in Core Inflation
( ) Share in Headline Inflation
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
- 50
100 150 200 250 300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
OtherTransportationTradeHotel & TourismRestaurant & RecreationOther ManufacturingElectronicRubbers & Plastics
Lost Working Hours Index (Man-Month*) from the
Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75**)
Man
-Mon
th (1
,000
Wor
kers
-Mon
th)
Note: * Man-Month = Number of workers x ( Number of missing working days in a month / Number of days in a month)** The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees
reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour, calculated by Bank of Thailand
10
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2019P2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE YTDTrade Balance 26.7 12.7 14.0 16.1 8.0 8.0 3.2 2.3 16.1
Exports (f.o.b.) 242.7 120.6 122.1 110.7 60.9 49.8 15.9 16.1 110.7
%YoY -3.3 -4.0 -2.7 -8.2 1.4 -17.8 -23.6 -24.6 -8.2
Imports (f.o.b.) 216.0 107.9 108.1 94.6 52.8 41.7 12.7 13.8 94.6
%YoY -5.6 -3.5 -7.6 -12.3 -1.0 -23.4 -34.2 -18.2 -12.3Net Services, Income & Transfers 11.6 5.2 6.5 -8.0 0.9 -8.9 -3.1 -2.6 -8.0Current Account 38.4 17.9 20.5 8.1 8.9 -0.8 0.1 -0.2 8.1Capital and Financial Account -15.0 -7.6 -7.4 4.5 -6.9 11.4 2.3 2.7 4.5Overall Balance 13.6 5.6 8.0 15.4 4.5 11.0 1.1 3.5 15.4
11
Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P
H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE YTD1. Assets -17,762 -9,348 -8,414 7,248 -2,845 10,092 1,781 709 7,248TDI -14,920 -8,256 -6,664 -8,211 -6,410 -1,800 -1,578 -1,871 -8,211- Equity -4,583 -3,176 -1,408 -4,689 -1,781 -2,908 -2,547 -182 -4,689- Reinvestment of earnings -1,051 -752 -299 -630 -312 -318 -126 -67 -630
Thai portfolio investment -8,060 -1,873 -6,188 2,179 52 2,128 -20 1,256 2,179- Equity security investment -2,542 -121 -2,420 -1,270 389 -1,659 -504 -781 -1,270- Debt security investment -5,519 -1,751 -3,767 3,449 -337 3,787 484 2,037 3,449
Loans 822 1,237 -415 -2,540 -703 -1,837 184 -1,050 -2,540Other investments 4,396 -457 4,853 15,818 4,217 11,602 3,195 2,374 15,818- Trade credits -832 -590 -242 3,854 531 3,323 1,088 516 3,854- Deposits abroad -435 -3,702 3,267 9,479 2,845 6,634 1,739 1,320 9,479
2. Liabilities 2,757 1,708 1,049 -2,710 -4,059 1,349 507 1,941 -2,710FDI 6,130 2,744 3,386 4,844 3,642 1,202 530 -64 4,844- Equity 3,143 775 2,368 2,350 1,332 1,018 329 244 2,350- Reinvestment of earnings 3,682 2,629 1,053 2,292 1,974 318 267 -217 2,292
Foreign portfolio investment -946 1,287 -2,233 -8,986 -7,281 -1,705 -1,187 1,600 -8,986- Equity security investment 56 840 -784 -6,779 -3,651 -3,128 -987 -734 -6,779- Debt security investment -1,002 447 -1,449 -2,207 -3,630 1,423 -200 2,333 -2,207
Loans 1,852 -1,064 2,916 3,321 725 2,596 1,728 -308 3,321Other investments -4,280 -1,260 -3,020 -1,888 -1,144 -744 -564 713 -1,888- Trade credits -1,701 -623 -1,078 165 -135 299 -278 289 165- Deposits abroad 945 838 107 461 664 -203 -282 505 461
Total financial flows (1+2) -15,005 -7,640 -7,365 4,538 -6,903 11,441 2,287 2,650 4,538
Net Financial Flows
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
12
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Jul
NEER REER USDTHB
Sources: Bank of Thailand and Reuters
% p.a. Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)
Index (Jan 2014 = 100)
July 2020(Average data
until 24 Jul 2020)THB Appreciation
Jun-20109.9
Jul-20120.1
Jul-20104.8
Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
5.0%
3.3%2.8%
2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%1.0% 1.0%
0.5% 0.4%
-0.1% -0.2%
-2.7%
1.0%
-0.9%
0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
1.2%0.6%
0.1%
1.0% 0.9%0.3%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
IDR EUR THB GBP KRW SGD MYR PHP TWD VND CNY INR JPY
Avg of Jun 20 compared to avg of May 20
Avg of Jul 20 compared to avg of Jun 20
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD
Exchange Rate Movement
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
29-D
ec-1
723
-Jan-
1813
-Feb
-18
7-M
ar-1
828
-Mar
-18
23-A
pr-1
815
-May
-18
6-Ju
n-18
27-Ju
n-18
18-Ju
l-18
10-A
ug-1
83-
Sep-
1824
-Sep
-18
16-O
ct-1
87-
Nov-
1828
-Nov
-18
21-D
ec-1
815
-Jan-
195-
Feb-
1927
-Feb
-19
20-M
ar-1
911
-Apr
-19
8-M
ay-1
930
-May
-19
21-Ju
n-19
12-Ju
l-19
5-Au
g-19
27-A
ug-1
917
-Sep
-19
8-Oc
t-19
31-O
ct-1
921
-Nov
-19
16-D
ec-1
98-
Jan-
2029
-Jan-
2020
-Feb
-20
12-M
ar-2
02-
Apr-2
024
-Apr
-20
20-M
ay-2
011
-Jun-
202-
Jul-2
024
-Jul-2
0
Latest data 24 July 2020July 2020(Average data
until 24 Jul 2020)
Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Q1-2
0
Q2-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jun 2020E
3.8