“Explosive Economic Growth in the San Francisco Bay Area has Created Significant Job Growth and Opportunity, but at what Cost?”

By: David Woltering, AICP, MPA 53rd International Making Cities Livable Conference, Rome, Italy,

June 13-17, 2016

Land Area:-4.4 million acres

Developed Area:-17.8%

Population:-7.15 million (2010)-7.4 million (2016)

San Bruno

Source: Miyamoto International

Source: Silicon Valley Historical Society

Jobs and Population

307,000 new jobs (2010-2013)

270,000 new residents (2010-2014)

(Significant increases in jobs and population)

Housing Production

2000-2010 – 23,300 units on average annually 2010-2014 – 9,600 units on average annually

(Substantial reduction in housing production since the Great Recession of 2007-2009)

Great Recession Housing Collapse

Housing Demand

700,000 additional housing units for 2,000,000 new residents between 2010-2040

23,000 units a year needed to meet projected demand

(Current housing shortage could get much worse!)

Housing FitFour household income levels in California:Very Low (0-50% of Average Median Income (AMI))Low (51-80% of AMI)Moderate (81-120% of AMI)Above Moderate (>120% of AMI)

(Only 25% of housing production goals were met for Very Low, Low, and Moderate income households, compared to over 80% for Above Moderate income households during period of 2007-14)

Regional Housing Costs (2010-2014)Housing considered affordable if 30% or less of household income

Rents increased by - 44% in Santa Clara County 43% in San Mateo County 36% in San Francisco County (Not affordable for 49% of rental households)

Median sales prices increased by 49% in the overallnine-county Bay Area

(Not affordable for 32% of owner households)

Aspects of Housing Crisis Tech Industry Expansion and resulting increases in

jobs and population Jobs being created across the full income spectrum Impact of Great Recession on housing production Housing production goals for Very Low, Low, and

Moderate Income housing are 75% below targets Escalating housing costs are making affordable

housing increasingly scarce

Housing Challenges

Declining WagesGlobal Investment in HousingLagging Housing ProductionBarriers to DevelopmentDeclining Public Resources

What are San Francisco Bay Area Communities Doing to Address the Housing Crisis?

Just Cause Eviction Ordinances

Rent Stabilization Ordinances

Relocation Assistance Ordinances

What could Communities do to Address the Housing Crisis?

Public/Private Partnerships

Social Housing

Identify and secure permanent funding sources

What could Communities do to Address the Housing Crisis?

Density

Streamline permitting processes

Allow more efficient use of existing housing

Lessons Learned!!

Comprehensive approach needed: Supply Fit Protections Transitions

Adaptable to local needs

Certainty

Needed Attributes for Success

Creativity

Innovation

Entrepreneurship

Successes

Successes

Call to Action!!!Creativity, innovation and entrepreneurship

have been used widely in the region to generate significant commercial success and prosperity for some; now, these attributes need to be used to address the significant

human hardship associated with this housing crisis to achieve and maintain a San Francisco

Bay Area that is healthy, sustainable and just for all!!!

Thank you!