executive summary - tellus institute

executive summary

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( A PROSPEROUS PATH TO A CLEAN ENVIRONMENT)

JUNE 1997

A REPORT BY

Alliance to Save Energy

American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

Natural Resources Defense Council

Tellus Institute

Union of Concerned Scientists

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Copyright copy 1997 by Alliance to Save Energy American Councilfor an Energy-Efficient EconomyNatural Resources Defense Council Tellus Institute and Union of Concerned Scientists

Suggested citation

Energy Innovations 1997 Energy Innovations A Prosperous Path to a Clean EnvironmentWashington DC Alliance to Save Energy American Councilfor an Energy-Efficient EconomyNatural Resources Defense Council Tellus Institute and Union of Concerned Scientists

FOR FURTHER INFORMATIONADDRESSES OFTHE CONTRIBUTINGORGANIZATIONS ARE

Alliance to Save Energy1200 18th St NW Suite 900Washington DC 20036httpy wwwaseorg


1001 Connecticut Avenue NWSuite 801Washington DC 20036httpy wwwcrestorgyaceee

Natural Resources Defense Council40 West 20th StreetNew York NY 10011httpzwwwnrdcorg

Tellus Institute11 Arlington StreetBoston MA 02116httpZwwwtellusorg

Union of Concerned Scientists2 Brattle SquareCambridge MA 02238httpwwwucsusaorg

For additional copies ofEnergy Innovations A Prosperous Path to a Clean Environmentplease contact the Alliance to Save Energy

bull energylnnovations

AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS

The Energy Innovations study was a nearly two-yeareffort involving several organizations and many individu-als The project was initiated and carried out as a col-laborative effort by the Alliance to Save Energy (ASE)the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy(ACEEE) the Natural Resources Defense Council(NRDC) the Tellus Institute and the Union of ConcernedScientists (UCS)

Steve Bernow of Tellus John DeCicco of ACEEE DanielLashof of NRDC Alden Meyer of UCS and Doug Norlandof ASE comprised the studys steering committee JohnDeCicco and Daniel Lashof with Deborah Gordon (con-sultant) acting as Associate Editor edited the report andwrote the Executive Summary Steve Bernow led theTellus team and with Max Duckworth and others atTellus performed the integrating analyses for the entirestudy and produced the final energy cost-benefit andemissions results Max Duckworth with Bill DoughertyMark Fulmer Charlie Heaps and others on the Tellusteam performed the National Energy Modeling Systemsimulations and supplemental economic analyses SkipLaitner of Economic Research Associates performed themacroeconomic analyses in coordination with Bernowand others at Tellus Principal authors and sector ana-lysts for each chapter were as follows

gt Chapter 1 (Introduction) - Daniel Lashof

gt Chapter 2 (Electricity) - Steve Bernow MaxDuckworth and Bill Dougherty at Tellus withMichael Brower (consultant) and Paul Jefferiss AlanNogee and Michael Tennis of UCS

gt Chapter 3 (Transportation) ~ John DeCicco withJason Mark and Roland Hwang of UCS and MartinThomas of ACEEE

gt Chapter 4 (Industry) - Neal Elliott with contribu-tions by Miriam Pye of ACEEE

gt Chapter 5 (Buildings) - Peter Miller of NRDC AllanChen (consultant) and Robert Mowris (consultant)with contributions by Max Duckworth

gt Chapter 6 (Cross-Cutting Policies) - Daniel Lashofwith contributions by Steve Bernow and Irene Petersat Tellus

gt Chapter 7 (Overall Results) - Steve Bernow andMax Duckworth with Bill Dougherty and MichaelRuth at Tellus

yReport production was supervised by John DeCicco atACEEE with integration and copyediting performed byRenee Nida and editorial assistance by Julia MerchantMary Rubin and Wayan Vota At ASE Doug Norlandcoordinated peer review and along with RozanneWeissman and Kara Saul assisted with productionCover design layout and report publication were han-dled by Paul Allen Moira OLeary Aileen Randolph andtheir colleagues at Ogilvy Adams amp Rinehart

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We are grateful for the critical comments and sugges-tions obtained from individuals who served as peerreviewers for the draft report or particular chaptersBruce Biewald Gale Boyd David Chien Carmen DifiglioDavid Festa Howard Geller John German Eric Hirst JonKoomey Mark Levine Chris Marnay Nathan Martin JimMcMahon Alan Miller Frank Muller Steve Nadel JoeRoop Art Rosenfeld Marc Ross Dan Santini DanSteinmeyer and John Wilson

We would also like to acknowledge the technical assis-tance and information provided to us by Mary HutzlerDirector of the Office of Integrated Analysis andForecasting at the Energy Information Administrationand her staff Joseph Baumgartner Erin BoedeckerCedric Britt David Chien John Cymbalsky Jeff JonesPerry Lindstrom Tom Petersik Scott Sitzer Dan SkellySteve Wade Peter Whitman and others Valuable tech-nical input and suggestions were also received from EricPeterson of the Department of Energy Office of EnergyEfficiency and Renewable Energy and Nancy Kete of theUS Environmental Protection Agency Office ofAtmospheric Programs as well as Maureen Mullen ofEH Pechan amp Associates Inc Sharon Nizich of theOffice of Air Quality Planning and Standards US EPAand Anant Vyas of the Center for TransportationResearch Argonne National Laboratory

Financial support for this project was provided by thethe Alida R Messinger Trust of the Rockefeller FamilyFunds Inc Changing Horizons Charitable Trust theCharles Evans Hughes Foundation the EducationFoundation of America the Energy Foundation theLeighty Foundation the Public Welfare Foundation theSurdna Foundation and the Wallace Global Fund

While we are grateful for the financial critical technicaland moral support of those acknowledged aboveresponsibility for the conclusions and recommendationscontained here rests with the authoring organizationsand the Energy Innovations project team

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYbull


Throughout American history technologicaland institutional innovation has increasedour prosperity Public leadership has

encouraged businesses workers and consumers toinvest in new ideas that meet the challenges of onegeneration paving the path to a better world forthe next generation

The energy system that fuels our 20th centuryeconomy exemplifies such progress through part-nership Most of this system is built upon innova-tions of the 19th century when coal was industrial-ized and oil commercialized electricity was har-nessed and the automobile invented From wild-cat drillers to John D Rockefeller to oil companiestoday savvy deals roughneck work public subsi-dies-and sometimes military might-havepumped petroleum from wells worldwide to neigh-borhood gas stations Government investments inroads and transit then enabled us to get to workand school shop and visit family and friends andconvey goods to and from market ThomasEdisons inventions were connected to public andprivate investments in power plants and powerlines From city to farm and from home to factoryAmericans benefit from reliable electricity plus theappliances and machinery it powers providinglight in the night and air-conditioning in the summer

Todays energy systems did not arise just throughthe hidden hand of market forces though marketshave played an important role They are as much a

product of strategic visions wherein private invest-ments melded with government incentives andpolicies to create the complex networks and indus-tries that dominate the energy scene Public policyguidelines were developed to ensure that benefitsare broadly shared to minimize the side effects ofenergy production and use and to prevent undueharm Such is the case with a fuel and power sup-ply system now dominated by fossil sources

Three concerns-our environment our economyand our security-compel us to rethink USenergy strategy

Burning fossil fuels harms our health and damagesthe planet Oil and coal combustion in particularcontribute to smog and acid rain and are thelargest source of sooty fine particles that lodge inour lungs and shorten the lives of tens of thou-sands of Americans each year

Fossil fuel consumption is also the chief source ofthe pollutants that are disrupting the earths cli-mate Carbon dioxide (C02) is the inherent by-product of burning coal oil and (to a lesser extent)natural gas As a result concentrations of this gashave increased by 30 percent since the industrialrevolution and scientists have concluded that ahuman influence on global climate is already dis-cernible Continued buildup of carbon dioxide andother greenhouse gases threatens human healthand well-being with many adverse consequences

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ii including increased spread of infectious diseasesmore frequent and severe heat waves stormsdroughts and floods rising sea levels and coastalinundation and damage to ecosystems riskingserious social and economic disruptions

Governments from around the world are currentlynegotiating an agreement to set binding limits onemissions of C02 and other greenhouse gasesThese talks are scheduled to conclude in December1997at the Kyoto Climate Summit As the worldslargest contributor to global warming the UnitedStates must take the lead in forging an internationalagreement that will put the world on track towardachieving the goal of the Rio Climate Treaty-pre-venting dangerous climate change Because naturalprocesses are very slow to remove excess C02 fromthe atmosphere a commitment to substantial time-ly and continuous emissions reductions is essen-tial This study provides an independent analysis ofpolicies that can reduce US greenhouse gas emis-sions over the coming decades in order to helpinform policy makers and the public in evaluatingthe wide variety of proposals that are on the table

In addition to causing environmental damageAmericas use of fossil fuels is costly Our nationalenergy bill amounts to over $500billion per year ormore than $5400per household (all costs are givenin constant 1993dollars) Too much of this bill ispaid to foreign corporations and governments littletrickles back to provide jobs in our communitiesThe net energy import bill last year was $56billionalmost all of which was for oil Energy waste andoverreliance on fossil resources now past theirprime imply economic inefficiency with lostopportunities for higher employment as well asinequitable distributions of income and wealth

Moreover the economic and security risks-partic-ularly of oil dependence-are very real Oil priceshocks have already provoked two major reces-sions Since the time of the first oil crisis themonopoly cartel nature of the oil market has costthe US economy over $4 trillion nearly equal to ayears worth of economic income With our oilimport share now at nearly 50percent and risingand with burgeoning demand in Asia and else-


where around the world a continued failure toenact prudent energy policies places our nation atan ever greater risk of future economic crises andperhaps military conflict over oil

Thus the 19th century contrivances that seemed toserve our parents and grandparents so well arecausing problems for us today Without a newdirection our children and grandchildren will beless prosperous healthy and secure than they canand should be The fact is the way we use energytoday is not sustainable Now is the time tochoose a new path marrying private innovationwith public leadership to invest in new ways ofproducing and using energy

The Energy Innovations study analyzes a bal-anced national strategy that can put the UnitedStates on an innovative prosperous path leading toan economically and environmentally sustainableenergy future This Innovation Path is markedby a set of programs and policies that would guideour economy toward lower cost less pollutingmore secure and more sustainable ways of pro-ducing and using energy The approach involvessetting fair performance standards creating incen-tives providing better information and reducingtransaction costs in order to foster investments inclean and efficient technologies Policy packagestailored to each economic sector would providethe push to get us onto the Innovation Path

The policy set on which this reports results arebased does not include an economy-wide carbontax or energy tax Rather sector-specific marketmechanisms would guide consumer and businessdecisions toward greater efficiency Examplesinclude an electric generation emissions allowanceand tradable permit system a revenue-neutralindustrial investment tax credit which can offsetincreases in energy costs by reductions in the costof capital and transportation pricing reforms suchas pay-as-you-drive insurance which would shift aportion of auto insurance premiums to a cost thatvaries with miles driven Each such policy reallo-cates costs in order to motivate higher energy effi-ciency and lower emissions while avoiding a netincrease of taxes or fees within the sector

KEY ENERGY INNOVATIONS POLICY APPROACHES

gt RENEWABLES CONTENT STANDARDSThese provisions would require an increasing per-centage of electricity and motor fuels to come fromrenewable resources such as wind biomass geo-thermal and solar The standards would be imple-mented through a credit-trading market mechanismthat allows each producer flexibility to meet thestandard or buy credits from another source thathas a higher renewables content than required

~ EMISSIONS PERFORMANCE ALLOWANCESThese provisions would establish a level playingfield for competition in the electricity market byestablishing appropriate caps on emissions of sul-fur dioxide nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxidewith emission allowances allocated to generators inproportion to their electrical output Flexibility isprovided with an emissions credit trading systemsimilar to that for renewables content

~ ADVANCED VEHICLES INITIATIVEThis initiative includes a balanced set of programsanchored with stronger fuel economy and emissionsstandards to move advanced clean and efficientvehicle designs into the showrooms and onto theroad Standards would be backed by rebates on

efficient vehicles paid for by fees on gas guzzlersplus market introduction programs and technologyresearch and development

~ INVESTMENT TAX CREDITThis incentive would speed up the process ofmodernizing the industrial capital stock by provid-ing a 10 percent tax credit for investments in newmanufacturing equipment paid for by fees on pur-chased energy Fees collected would be rebatedto firms so the system would be revenue neutralwhile encouraging investment in new efficient pro-duction equipment that would increase productivitywhile reducing energy consumption and pollution

~ MARKET INTRODUCTION INCENTIVESTechnology demonstrations would be combinedwith manufacturer incentives consumer educa-tion and market innovations to reduce transactioncosts lowering a key hurdle between potentialand realized energy savings by helping to moveproducts from prototype designs into mass pro-duction Once markets are established minimumefficiency standards would improve the perfor-mance of similar products

This sector-based approach is not intended todownplay the potential value of a broad-basedapproach rooted in fundamental changes to thefederal tax system Revenue-neutral tax reformcould establish pollution charges to enable cuts inexisting taxes on various forms of income Sustain-able economic development can be stimulated byequitably shifting some taxes from goods tobads Thus this study also examines how equiv-alent energy savings and emissions reductions canbe achieved through charges on carbon or otherforms of pollution as might be developed in thecontext of tax reform Such an approach stillrequires a full range of technology-oriented pro-grams and policies targeted to each sector

Moreover economy-wide energy or pollution taxesshould be developed only as part of a fundamentaltax reform effort that is premised on the need toenhance equity as well as efficiency In practicepolitical factors such as congressional committeejurisdictions and the extent of pressure for over-hauling the federal tax system would determine theapproach or combination of approaches selected

Whichever types of market mechanisms areinvolved the Energy Innovations strategy willhelp us get more value and less pollution fromeach ton of coal barrel of oil or cubic foot of nat-ural gas that we bum while effecting a determinedand orderly shift away from fossil fuels and towardsafe and secure energy resources for the 21st cen-tury Technological progress would be the corner-stone of such an achievement

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

iii

ivTECHNOLOGY HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INNOVATION PATH

~ FUEL CELLSOriginally developed for the space program thesedevices convert the hydrogen in fuel directly intoelectricity without combustion Recent advancesmake fuel cells very promising for achieving ultra-high efficiencies in electric-drive vehicles and for on-site electricity generation in buildings and industryIn the long-run fuel cells supplied with hydrogen pro-duced from renewable resources offer the potentialof a truly zero-emissions energy system

~ ADVANCED GAS TURBINESThese devices use combustion gases directly(rather than steam) to propel turbine bladesApplying materials and designs developed for jetengines has greatly increased gas turbine efficiencyin recent years Combined cycle systems (whichuse the turbine exhaust to produce steam for a con-ventional turbine) are the technology of choice fornew power plants Commercially available systemsgenerate electricity at an efficiency of 50 percent(compared to conventional power-plant efficienciesof 30-35 percent) while efficiencies approaching70 percent appear to be within reach

~ INTEGRATED GREEN BUILDING DESIGNSDramatic reductions in energy requirements areachievable by using high-efficiency components inintegrated designs that exploit synergies amongbuilding elements For example incorporating pas-sive solar features and efficient lighting allows areduction in the size of space conditioning equip-ment incorporating whole-building control systemscan further reduce operating costs while improvingoccupant comfort and productivity

~ MEMBRANE TECHNOLOGYMembranes represent an exciting alternative to tra-ditional separation technologies which are amongthe most energy-intensive industrial processes

~ energylnnovations

Membranes can be used to treat wastes torecover products as mundane as salt or as pre-cious as silver to purify chemicals to producecorn syrup or to concentrate orange juice-all athigher quality and with less energy and pollutionthan conventional processes

~ FUELS AND ELECTRICITY FROM BIOMASSStarting with wastes from agricultural and forestproducts and eventually using high-yield energycrops advanced biomass conversion technologiescan cost-effectively produce fuels and electricitywhile offering important opportunities for ruraldevelopment New biological and enzymaticprocesses can greatly boost the efficiency ofethanol production a biomass gasifier coupled toan advanced gas turbine can generate electricitywith much higher efficiency and lower pollutionthan direct combustion

~ ADVANCED WIND TURBINESThe wind industry is already booming internation-ally with more than 1200 megawatts of capacityadded globally in each of the last two yearsAdvanced variable-speed designs and mass pro-duction can further reduce costs from 4-6 centsper kilowatt-hour today to 3-5 cents after the turnof the century

~ PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULESThese solid-state devices (solar celis) convertsunlight directly into electricity and are alreadycost-effective in many applications remote fromthe power grid Improved efficiencies andreduced production costs promise to cut the costof solar electricity by half within the next decadethin film technology allows photovoltaics to beintegrated into building materials such as roofingshingles and facades further reducing net systemcosts

ResultsTo evaluate the Innovation Path it was ana-

lyzed in comparison to a Present Pathdefined by a continuation of current US

energy trends Table 1 summarizes the principalresults from the analysis of the two pathsFollowing the Innovation Path yields immediatedividends of energy savings pollution reductionand decreased oil consumption

Figure 1 compares US primary energy use by fuelfor the two paths Along the Innovation Pathprimary energy consumption is 15percent lowerthan the Present Path by 2010 and 42 percentlower by 2030 Oil and coal use decline and anincreasing share of our energy is supplied fromrenewable sources Figure 2 shows the breakdownof renewable energy sources for the Innovation

TABLE 1 ENERGY AND ECONOMIC RESULTS PRESENT PATH VS INNOVATION PATH

Present PathPrimary Energy (Quads)Petroleum (Quads)Renewables (Quads)Carbon Emissions (MTc)Nations Energy Bill (B$)Energy Intensity (kBtu$)Carbon Intensity CMTcQuad)

Innovation PathPrimary Energy (Quads)Petroleum (Quads)Renewables (Quads)Carbon Emissions (MTc)Nations Energy Bill CB$)Energy Intensity (kBtu$)Carbon Intensity (MTcQuad)

Economics of Innovation PathIncremental Investments (B$)Fuel Cost Savings (B$)Net Savings per Household ($)Avoided Petroleum Imports (B$)Cumulative Investment (B$)Cumulative Savings (B$)Cumulative BenefitCost Ratio

1990 2000 2010 2030

846 954 1045 1194335 370 406 48265 78 91 128

1338 1482 1621 1892540 556 648 nla140 125 112 86158 155 155 158

846 886 889 688335 345 324 23265 87 127 222

1338 1287 1207 728540 542 563 nla140 1l6 96 64158 145 136 82

28 7338 131100 5305 21

89 58896 100511 l7

All economic results are in constant 1993 dollarsQuads = Quadrillion (1015

) British Thermal UnitsMTc =Million tonnes (metric tons) of carbonB$ = Billion dollarskBtu = Thousand British Thermal Units

--------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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v

I RGURE lA TOTALPRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUELI ALONG THE PRESENT PATH (1990-2030)

140 Energy Consumption (Quads)

Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

FIGURE lB TOTALPRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUELALONG THE INNOVATION PATH(1990-2030)

100

80

60L-~ ----~~0 7 940 bullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbull

20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

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-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

FIGURE 2 TOTALPRIMARY RENEWABLEENERGY BY FUELTYPEUNDER THE INNOVATION PATH (1990-2030)

Energy Production (Quads)

25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020

Path along which renewables would come to sup-ply 14 percent of US energy needs by 2010 and 32percent by 2030

Moreover with the Innovation Path our air willbe healthier to breathe Compared to 1990 levels a64 percent reduction in sulfur dioxide (S02) emis-sions (a primary precursor of fine particles) wouldbe achieved by 2010 along with a 27 percent reduc-tion in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions (a key pre-cursor of ground-level ozone) Emissions of otherdamaging pollutants including fine particles toxicmetals and hydrocarbons would also be greatlyreduced

Figure 3 contrasts rising C02 emissions along thePresent Path with the decreases projected for theInnovation Path Increases in energy efficiencyand changes in fuel mix combine to reduce USC02 emissions to 10 percent below 1990 levels by2010 compared to a 21 percent increase in thePresent Path Such C02 emissions reductionscoupled with carefully defined international trad-ing protocols would allow the United States tocomply with the European Unions proposal for aninternational agreement requiring that by 2010industrialized countries reduce greenhouse gasemissions by 15 percent compared to 1990 levelsGiven the restrictive assumptions built into thisanalysis we believe that even greater reductionswould be feasible in this time frame

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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vii

FIGURE 3 TOTAL CARBON EMISSIONS FROM DIRECT FUEL USE BY SECTORPRESENT PATH VS INNOVATION PATH

viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport

1500 bull Electricity Generation6000

Present Path bull iiWll1iraquo

1000

500

o1990 2010 2030

The Innovation Path also saves consumersmoney with net savings reaching $58 billionnationwide equivalent to $530 per household by2010 These savings are the difference betweentotal energy bill savings and increased investmentcosts on an annualized basis Figure 4 showsannual costs and benefits averaged over five-yearintervals between now and 2010 Investments incleaner and more efficient buildings appliancesautomobiles equipment and power plants average$29 billion per year over the whole period Bycomparison savings from reduced expenditures oncoal oil natural gas and other fuels would average$48 billion per year Moreover as illustrated in thefigure net benefits grow each successive year sothat the benefits of the Innovation Path equal 17times its costs for the 2006-2010 time periodThese net savings dont even include the benefitsto society of air pollution avoided by theInnovation Path

bullbullbull energylnnovations

1990 2010 2030

Compared to the Present Path following theInnovation Path starts us down a road ofreduced petroleum dependence Oil use dropsfrom the 1990 level of almost 34 quadrillion BritishThermal Units (Quads) to 32 Quads in 2010instead of rising to 41 Quads reducing the US oilimport bill that year by $21 billion

Investing in a new generation of energy-efficientlow-pollution technologies also enhances USemployment By 2010 following the InnovationPath creates nearly 800000 additional jobsbeyond the baseline growth embodied in thePresent Path Consumer savings on fuel costswill allow greater spending on non-energy sectorsof the economy which entail a greater number ofjobs per dollar of purchases than the capital-intensive energy sectors Reduced oil imports alsocontribute to expanded employment here at homeAs illustrated in Figure 5 our macroeconomic

o

FIGURE 4 THE ANNUAL COSTS ANDBENEFITS OF THE INNOVATION PATH

Billions of 1993 Dollars

120

100

80o Average Annual Benefitsbull Average Annual Costs

60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010

modeling based on detailed analysis of shifts ininvestment and energy demand projects a modestincrease ($14 billion) in wage and salary income aswell as a slightly higher GDP (up nearly $3 billion)for the Innovation Path compared to thePresent Path

These economic results contrast sharply with theconclusions of analyses sponsored by fossil fuelinterests Such analyses have examined unrealisticpolicies using misleading assumptions that excludemany proven cost-effective energy efficiencyopportunities neglect the potential for technologi-cal innovations and often fail to count the net sav-ings of reduced energy bills

FIGURE 5 MACROECONOMICBENEFITS OF THE INNOVATION PATH

ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP

Although our full economic analysis is limited to2010 we did extend the energy analysis to 2030Following the Innovation Path for the additionaltwo decades yields much greater benefits as sav-ings from efficiency investments compound tech-nology innovation provides yet greater payoffs andrenewable energy technologies corne into exten-sive use Instead of Present Path primary energyconsumption reaching 119 Quads in 2030 theInnovation Path would cut it to 69 Quads ofwhich 22 Quads would corne from renewableresources Petroleum dependence declines to 23Quads rather than rising to 48 Quads Air pollutionfrom energy use would be a fraction of what it istoday


By 2030moreover the United States would bewell along the way to a sustainable future withC02 emissions cut to 45 percent below the 1990level and dropping further with each successiveyear Then as todays first graders reach their 40swe would have bequeathed them a better world-healthier more stable and secure-where they canmeet the new challenges of the next century ratherthan be saddled with the risks costs and unsolvedproblems of fossil fuels from the century past

ABOUT THE ANALYTIC TOOLS

The results described here are based largely on theNational Energy Modeling System (NEMS) devel-oped by the Energy Information Administration(the statistical arm of the US Department ofEnergy) as the primary analytical tool Experts onthe technologies for the residential commercialindustrial transportation and electricity genera-tion sectors reviewed the detailed specificationsused in NEMSand updated them as appropriate

For the industrial sector a more sophisticatedmodel (Long-range Industrial Energy ForecastingLIEF) was employed because the structure ofNEMSdoes not provide sufficient flexibility toallow for meaningful analysis Some parts of thetransportation sector and of renewable technolo-gies analyses were also developed separately and


then incorporated into NEMS Moreover since theNEMSmodel used here provides outputs onlythrough 2010 our long-run results are based onsector-specific models that estimate resultsthrough 2030

NEMSwas chosen for this study to facilitate com-parison to government studies and because it pro-vides an independent framework for energy fore-casting However NEMSalso entails some restric-tions that limit the completeness of its results The1995version of the model used for this study couldnot calculate energy price and economic activityfeedbacks with the up-to-date economic and priceinputs needed for the study Furthermore themodels basis in mainly short-term responses caus-es it to underestimate long-term shifts in the com-position of economic output and opportunities tointroduce new technology

In order to examine the impacts on the overalleconomy details on investment costs and changesin energy expenditures from NEMSand the supple-mental models were fed into a macroeconomicmodel known as IMPLANalso developed by thefederal government This model represents interac-tions among all parts of the economy in order toproduce projections of changes in employmentwage income and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)implied by the changes in energy use

From the Bottom UpThe sections below highlight key elements of

the policy strategies needed to follow theEnergy Innovations path in each of the

major sectors of the economy The sector-by-sectorresults that form the basis of the integrated nation-al results described above are also presented

PLUGGING INTO CLEAN POWER

New technologies are the motivating force behindthe current restructuring of our electricity supplysystem Combined with efficiency improvementswherever power is used and expanded cogenera-tion of heat and electricity we have before us thechoice to cut pollution and decrease costs by pur-suing fair and balanced policies in a newly config-ured industry In contrast a myopic pursuit of thelowest possible short-run electricity commodityprices poses a great threat that the windfall fromrestructuring would accrue to a few large industri-al customers while vested interests in dirty anddangerous power plants thwart true competitionresulting in excess pollution and rapidly rising C02emissions

Despite considerable progress since the originalClean Air Act of 1970 electricity generationremains our largest source of air pollution In 1990power plants emitted 21 percent of airborne mer-cury 37 percent of NOx81 percent of 802 and36 percent of C02 emitted in the United StatesMost of this pollution comes from older coal-firedpower plants exempted from meeting the cleaneremissions standards that apply to newer units

For the electricity supply sector the issue ofbusiness-as-usual is moot The rules of the gameare already changing the real issue is how theywill change Thus the Present Path for electricityreflects not so much the absence of new policiesbut rather the risks of new rules that evade fair envi-ronmental standards ignore the need for equitableservices and lack adequate incentives for investingin energy efficiency and renewable technologies

A simplistic drive to retail competition could meanthe elimination of incentives to invest in end-useefficiency for all consumers research and develop-ment and renewable energy supplies that had beenestablished in many states during the last decadeWithout such public guidance highly-pollutingpower plants are likely to be used more intensivelyand annual C02 emissions from power plantswould climb to 580 million metric tonnes of carbon(MTc) per year by 201022 percent higher than in1990

xi

We can follow a better path plugging into cleanpower-and plugging into it with energy-efficientproducts and equipment-by enacting a set of sen-sible safeguards when writing the ground rules fora competitively restructured industry TheInnovation Path would address the above con-cerns through a set of policies that preserve incen-tives for equity efficiency renewables and lowerpollution

gt A system benefits charge levied on access tothe transmission system would generate feder-al matching funds for state programs thatensure the delivery of crucial public servicesincluding end-use efficiency (modeled in theend-use sectors) low-income services andresearch and development

gt A renewables portfolio standard would ensurecontinued expansion of the share of electricitycoming from emerging clean technologiessuch as wind geothermal and solar energyAlternatively funds from a systems benefitscharge could be used to ensure this result(which is how the modeling was conducted)

gt Caps on NOxparticulate matter and C02emissions from electric generation and a morestringent S02 cap lowered to less than 4 mil-lion tons by 2010 would ensure that emissiongoals were met Such pollution allowancescan be allocated in a competitively neutralmanner by distributing them based on uniformoutput-based (pounds per megawatt-hour)generation performance standards


xii Following the Innovation Path energy efficiencyimprovements in industry homes and offices trimUS electricity generation 17 percent by 2010 froma Present Path level of 3780 billion kilowatt-hour(kWh) down to 3120 billion kWh Incrementalinvestments in new electric supply technologiesaverage $11 billion annually through 2010 partlyoffset for power plant fuel cost savings averaging$4 billion per year over the same period Althoughthe average price per kWh would rise the nationspower bill would drop saving consumers $41 bil-lion in 2010

As illustrated in Figure 6 the Innovation Pathstarts a clear transition toward renewable and sus-tainable sources of electric power providing ameasured but progressive phaseout of both coaland nuclear power by 2030 As discussed below for

the industrial sector investments in combined heatand power facilities contribute to the steady dropin demand for purchased electricity that occursafter 2010 By 2030 the industrial sector meetsall of its net electric power needs through self-generation and cogeneration

Lower electricity usage combined with cleanerpower sources produces substantial cuts in airpollution and carbon emissions Following theInnovation Path electric sector NOx emissionsare cut 48 percent by 2010 S02 emissions are cut77 percent and direct particulate emissions are cut38 percent compared to the 1990 levels C02 emis-sions from power plants fall to 346 MTc in 201027 percent below 1990 levels By 2030 C02 emissionsfrom power generation are cut to 80 MTc morethan an 80 percent reduction compared to 1990

FIGURE 6 ELECTRIC GENERATION BY SOURCE UNDER THE INNOVATION PATH(1990middot2030)

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500

Generation (Billion kWh)

2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports

CogenerationSales to Grid

--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables

-bullbullbull=--I~Hydro

TT7~h=~~~ Nuclear(c-+-f-f-- Natural Gas

ott-r-l-l-l-_ Petro leu m

~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO

As the 20th century rushes to a close we stand atthe threshold of promising changes in how wetransport products services and ourselves fromplace to place Ongoing progress in vehicle tech-nology cleaner fuels insights in urban planningand pricing reforms offer hope that the US trans-portation system can one day provide its amenitiesat lower social and environmental cost

Aided by microprocessors and computer-aideddesigns for building better power trains and struc-tures and with electric drivetrains entering themarket and fuel cells on the horizon progress inautomotive engineering can lead to a new genera-tion of vehicles far safer cleaner and more effi-cient than those of today Combined with newfuels (ultimately derived from renewableresources) advanced vehicles can greatly reducepetroleum imports cut carbon emissions andreduce air pollution

Fresh approaches to planning greater emphasis oninterconnecting different transportation modesand pricing reforms can support more balancedtransportation choices Strategic investments ininfrastructure ranging from renewed transit sys-tems that are better coordinated with land use tohigh-speed rail systems linking major cities couldcreate new transportation choices

Yet our transportation future is far from certain Inmany ways and in spite of the great potential forprogress the US transportation system is in a rutthe well-worn track of growing traffic by oil-guzzling cars and trucks Technology advances arenot by and large applied to address problems ofpetroleum dependence and environmental damageThe car and light truck market pushes ever moremass and horsepower unable to balance marketdesires with environmental concerns Federal andstate transportation dollars are too often squan-dered in vain attempts to pave our way out of con-gestion Family transportation choices are chokedoff by sprawl development that mandates car usefor work school shopping recreation and everyerrand in between

America finds itself today with a transportationsystem that is 97 percent dependent on oil andresponsible for 77 percent of carbon monoxide45 percent of NOx38 percent of volatile organiccompounds 27 percent of fine particles (PMlO)and 32 percent of C02 nationwide With a road-dominated system and fuel prices failing toaccount for true costs transportation fuel demandand its associated adverse impacts are growingsteadily The Present Path anticipates both ener-gy use and carbon emissions from transportationrising 29 percent above the 1990 level by 2010 and60 percent by 2030

xiii

Public policy leadership is essential for putting thecountry on a path that can avoid the growing costsand risks of our currently unsustainable trans-portation energy system The Innovation Pathfor transportation involves a set of policy packagescovering the major factors influencing this sector

~ An advanced vehicle strategy including fueleconomy standards to raise the new car andlight truck fleet average by 15 miles per gallonper year stronger emissions standards incen-tives to encourage purchase of advanced vehi-cles market introduction programs and better-focused research and development for next-generation vehicle technologies

~ A greener trucking initiative providing incen-tives and voluntary programs backed byresearch and development demonstration andinformational efforts leading to significant effi-ciency improvements and emissions reduc-tions for freight trucks

~ Ongoing research and development and othermeasures to accelerate the adoption of techno-logical and operational energy efficiencyimprovements in commercial aircraft plusstrategic investments in intercity high-speedrail links to alleviate airport congestion anddisplace shorter flights


~ Renewable fuels incentives comprising fuelcomposition standards or a motor fuels carboncontent cap with tradable credits linked to fullfuel cycle greenhouse gas impacts ineennvesfor commercialization of and infrasrmemreprovision for low greenhouse gas fuels plusresearch and development of renewable fuelsupply technologies

~ Strengthening the intermodal efficiency plan-ning and public participation provisions ofnational transportation legislation to enhancetransit and other mode choice opportunitiesfoster mixed-use transit-oriented bicycle- andpedestrian-friendly community designsencourage intermodal shipping and redirectspending away from road expansion toward aricher set of mobility choices

Energy Consumption (Quads)

40

FIGURE 7 TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE AND OIL DEPENDENCEPRESENT PATH VS INNOVATION PATH (1990-2030)

~ Transportation pricing reforms including park-ing subsidy reform and uniform commuterbenefits shifting hidden fixed or indirectcosts to road user fees pay-as-you-drive autoinsurance and more equitable and environ-mentally sound road use cost allocation

Automobile efficiency improvement is a criticalpart of the Innovation Path which would pushthe fuel economy of new cars to 45 miles per gal-lon (mpg) and new light trucks to 35 mpg with 10years of lead time (by 2008) As advanced nextgeneration technologies replace conventionaldesigns this rate of improvement can be continuedso that by 2030 the combined new car and lighttruck fleet reaches 75mpg meeting the tripled-efficiency goal of the governmentindustryPartnership for a New Generation of Vehiclesannounced in 1993

Million Barrels Oil-Equiv per Day

Present Path remains over90 petroleum dependent

20

Innovation Pathbull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull bull Total Energybullbullbullbullbullbullbullbull ~~~ bullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbulldbullbullbullbull bullbullbullbullbull bullbullbullbullbullbullbull

Innovation Path Petroleum bullbullbullbullbullbullbullbullbull

30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030

Developing a new fuels infrastructure requires along lead time so more dramatic impacts occurpost-201O By 2030 the Innovation Path com-bines a 19percent reduction in travel demandtripled light vehicle efficiency plus improvementsin other modes and increasing use of low-carbonfuels to push C02 emissions down to 270MTcor35 percent below the 1990level

The benefits of this Innovation Path for trans-portation far outweigh the costs Guided by thepolicy strategy annual investments in improvedvehicle technology average $5 billion per yearthrough 2010but fuel saving benefits average $19billion per year The societal benefits would beeven larger due to avoided air pollution and oilimport costs The sector also begins to wean itselfaway from oil dependence As illustrated in Figure7 following the Innovation Path cuts transporta-tion oil use to less than half of what it would bealong the Present Path by 2030

INVESTING IN INDUSTRIAL INNOVATIONAND EFFICIENCY

Industry accounts for 36 percent of total US pri-mary energy consumption amounting to nearly 32Quads in 1990 This sector is more diverse thanthe others encompassing agriculture mining con-struction and manufacturing The processes usedenergy requirements and pollution from eachindustry are as different as the products they pro-duce Electricity accounts for about one-third ofthe primary energy consumed by industries withnatural gas and oil each comprising 26 percentMoreover many industries use fossil fuels as theirfeedstocks also accounting for a significant shareof consumption

Historically the overall energy intensity of the USindustrial sector has dropped at an average rate ofjust over 1percent per year The rapid increases inenergy prices of the early 1970saccelerated thisrate of decline to 25 percent per year through themid-1980s This rate could not be sustained how-ever since the easy and inexpensive efficiencyopportunities were implemented leaving the more

difficult opportunities Thus with the decreases inenergy prices that began in the late 1980sand con-tinue today (in inflation-adjusted terms) the trendof declining energy intensity has slowed Techno-logical innovation has continued however and isthe underlying reason for reduced industrial energyintensity Production processes and equipmenthave become more energy efficient and productshave also changed reflecting a trend toward theuse of less physical material to make productsDespite these improvements expanding output haspushed total industrial energy consumption upsteadily since 1991

One way to revitalize energy efficiency progress isfor firms to embrace these issues from a financialperspective It is critical that all the savings relat-ed to industrial projects both energy and non-energy (such as reduced waste and improved pro-ductivity) be included in the financial analysis sothat decision makers know the complete costs andbenefits Many cost-effective efficiency opportuni-ties remain unimplemented today because industri-al resource allocation procedures often fail to sys-tematically seek out such projects or to accountfor the full benefits

As indicated by recent increases in energy con-sumption in this sector the current marketplacecannot be expected to mobilize to fully capturesuch innovations without policy support Thusfour types of policies are needed to help placeindustry on the Innovation Path

gt Establish revenue-neutral tax incentives witha 10percent investment tax credit for invest-ment in new production equipment and otherrebates to firms paid for with fees on pur-chased energy equivalent to $25per ton of C02($92 per ton of carbon)

gt Double research development and demonstra-tion investment (public and private) andenhance information and education activitiesto accelerate adoption of efficient technologies

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv

xvi ~ Promote increased availability and use of recy-cled feedstocks

~ Remove barriers to combined heat and powertechnologies by establishing full and fair com-petition in electricity markets with output-based environmental standards that recognizethe efficiency gains from cogeneration

Estimating the magnitude of potential energy sav-ings in the industrial sector is difficult becausemanufacturing processes account for a large por-tion of industrial energy consumption Since tech-nologies and processes vary not only from industryto industry but from plant to plant the potentialfor energy efficiency improvement is unique toindividual plants Cost-effective technologicalopportunities exist but they have to be sought outby knowledgeable industrial experts While manyof the largest energy-consuming industries have

FIGURE 8 TOTALPRIMARY INDUSTRIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONAND MANUFACTURING ENERGY INTENSITY


60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull

the resources needed to carry out the appropriateassessments smaller firms have been less success-ful in this regard This is problematic Smallermanufacturers (with fewer than 500 employees)account for almost 99 percent of US manufactur-ing facilities and consume 42 percent of all indus-trial energy use Thus a tremendous energy sav-ings opportunity remains untapped

The potential for renewable energy sources toreplace fossil fuels in this sector is less clearexcept in the wood products industries where thepromise is great The combination of cheap con-ventional sources of energy and the potential forfurther efficiency improvements is likely to dis-courage the use of alternative fuels in the nearterm Nevertheless opportunities exist for innova-tions especially for replacement of petroleum-based feedstocks with biomass and for combined-cycle combustion turbines that can generate elec-tricity and heat on-site

Energy Intensity (MBtu per $1987)

Energy Intensity

3

- Historical DataPresent PathInnovation Path

197025~--------------------------------------------

2020

bullbull energyInnovations

1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1

While research and development influences thesupply of new technologies the pace of investmentin modernizing manufacturing processes and thepriority put on energy costs by corporate financialand technical staff will drive the rate at whichenergy efficiency and renewables are adopted inthe industrial sector The availability of recycledmaterials and the emphasis placed on recycling asa means of reducing feedstock volumes and wastestreams will also influence overall energy require-ments In addition institutional and technicalarrangements that allow the fulfillment of heat andpower needs to be combined (cogeneration) cansubstantially reduce energy use pollution and car-bon emissions

On the Present Path industrial energy consump-tion is expected to rise with growing economicactivity even with an assumed 1 percent per yearaverage decline in energy intensity reaching 40Quads of primary energy by 2010 If this trend is tochange aggressive energy efficiency policies mustbe implemented that reflect the unique characteris-tics of American industries As illustrated in Figure8 the policies included in the Innovation Pathreduce primary energy use by 14 percent comparedto the Present Path in 2010 boosting the rate ofenergy-intensity decline to 2 percent per year

By 2030 the industrial sector could be a net elec-tricity producer rather than a net consumer (there-by also reducing generation requirements and pol-lution from the electricity sector) Combined withend-use efficiency improvements this developmentreduces primary consumption by over 50 percentcompared to the Present Path in 2030 In termsof carbon emissions these policies reduce directreductions from industry by 12 percent comparedto the Present Path in 2010 and by one-third in2030 Incremental investment costs and fuel sav-ings are almost equal in the industrial sector eachaveraging about $8 billion per year through 2010

SAVING ENERGY IN HOMES AND OFFICES xvii

When the first oil crisis put the spotlight on energyproblems in 1973 much attention was devoted tolooking for ways to make residential and commer-cial buildings use less energy while providing com-parable services in terms of heating cooling andlighting Improved designs and equipment havebeen successful not only in terms of enhancedenergy efficiency but also in delivering other bene-fits such as improved fire safety lower mainte-nance costs quieter operation more durable mate-rials faster cooking times and greater use of nat-ural lighting to please the senses

Today American homes consume substantially lessenergy per square foot than they did 25 years agoYet residential and commercial buildings stillaccount for 37 percent of US primary energy usemostly due to their appetite for electricity Indeedgrowth in electricity demand has caused total pri-mary energy use attributable to buildings toincrease by 36 percent even while direct fuel con-sumption has fallen compared to 1973

Many efficient new products have been introducedover the past decade including compact fluores-cent lights and efficient electronic ballasts moreefficient refrigerators and other appliances solarheat pumps passive cooling systems multipanedwindows and spectrally selective window glazingsThese innovations are just the beginning

New means of getting these technologies into themarketplace have also been advanced Govern-ments and utilities have learned how to encourageor require energy-efficient retrofit of existing build-ings researchers have transferred advanced tech-nology to builders and public and private entitieshave found ways to finance improved efficiencyFor example energy efficiency standards for appli-ances were adopted and a Super EfficientRefrigerator Program was established to encouragemanufacturers to develop an even more advancedproduct Manufacturers public interest groupsand the government recently negotiated a thirdround of minimum efficiency standards for refrig-erators and freezers


xviii Despite readily available innovations with favor-

able economics market failures continue to existslowing the adoption of even highly cost-effectivemeasures to save energy in buildings Furthermorederegulation of the utility industry threatens to haltnew investments in energy efficiency as utilitiesthat were once leading the charge for efficiencycut their demand-side management programs dras-tically as they slash costs to position themselvesfor competition under rules that remain uncertainin most of the country

The Innovation Path to comfortable and efficientbuildings lies primarily in fostering market accep-tance of the many technologies that already existMany policies that encourage energy efficiencyupstream pollution abatement and carbon emis-sion reductions in residential and commercialbuildings are poised for action Promising strate-gies include the following

gt Set strong guidelines for quality and efficiencyby developing progressive standards forenergy-efficient appliances and equipmentadopting and refining flexible building codesand assisting code conformity and complianceefforts by state and local officials

gt Enhance the power of markets to spur innova-tion and adoption of products and servicesproviding greater efficiency through informa-tion and outreach programs (such as EPAsGreen Lights and Energy Star programs) andtax incentives for the adoption of renewabletechnologies for space conditioning and waterheating


gt Provide public sector leadership by improvingthe efficiency of federal state and local gov-ernment buildings

gt Increase research development and demon-stration of energy-efficient technologies forbuildings and equipment and develop bettertools for measuring building energy use

The Innovation Path reflects the effect of thesepolicies on over two dozen highly efficient buildingtechnologies-ranging from furnaces and boilers toair-conditioners and chillers The result is a reduc-tion of primary energy consumption in buildings by11 percent compared to the Present Path in 2010and 22 percent in 2030 Most of these reductionswould occur in commercial buildings Technologicalinnovations in space heating water heating spacecooling and lighting account for the greatest gainsin energy efficiency and carbon savings Moreoverthe use of renewable fuels increases significantlyin the Innovations Path for buildings By 2010C02 emissions from fuels used directly in buildingsdrops 27 percent compared to 1990 levels and by2030 emissions are reduced by 30 percent To pro-duce these reductions in energy consumptionincremental investment costs average about $5 bil-lion per year through 2010 producing energy costreductions of $17 billion per year

ConclusionInthe United States today our system of energy

supply and use dampens the economy anddamages the environment Inefficient use of

energy and reliance on polluting energy sourcessuch as coal and oil reduces our productivity andharms our health that of our children and that ofour planet

But past need not be prologue As shown on thenext page the Innovation Path is the rightchoice for Americas energy future With publicpolicy guidance we can cut energy costs increaseemployment and protect the environment By 2010the United States would have a national energysystem that compared to the Present Pathreduces net costs by $530 per household reducesglobal warming C02 emissions to 10 percent below1990 levels and has substantially lower emissionsof other harmful air pollutants

This study demonstrates that the InnovationPath is also the prosperous path Maintaining thePresent Path with antiquated technologies andinefficient use of fossil fuels means lost opportuni-ties for new jobs and higher incomes greater risksof economic loss from rising oil imports as well ashigher pollution both global and local But if we sochoose the United States can take a path to a trulysustainable energy future with reliance on energyefficiency and renewable resources rising andwith pollution and energy bills falling each succes-sive year TheEnergy Innovations strategy willlead to the sustainable energy future thatAmericans want and deserve

xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf

A PROSPEROUS PATH TO A CLEAN ENVIRONMENT

CHOOSING OUR ENERGY FUTURE

THE PRESENT PATH

National energy consumption rises from 85 Quads in 1990 to105 Quads in 2010 and 119 Quads in 2030

Economic growth averages 22 per year under Present Pathassumptions

In spite of economic growth many job opportunities arelost due to energy waste and rising oil imports

National energy bill rises to $650 billion in 2010 from $540billion in 1990

Fossil fuels which account for 85 of US energy use todaystill account for 85 in 2010

The United States remains fossil-fuel dependent for the fore-seeable future with renewable resources meeting only 11of our energy needs in 2030

Petroleum use rises from 17 Mbd (million barrels of oil perday) to 21 Mbd in 2010 and 25 Mbd by 2030

US oil import bill rises to $104 billion annually by 2010continuing to add to our trade deficit and drain the economy

Energy intensity of the US economy declines at 11 peryear

Air pollution from nitrogen oxide (NOx)emissions persists withlittle change from present level of 20 million tons per year

Sulfur dioxide (S02) emissions decline only slowly from 19million tons annually today to 13 million tons by 2010

Global warming emissions of carbon dioxide (C02) rise steadi-ly from 1338 MTc(million metric tons of carbon per year) in1990 to 1621 MTc in 2010 and 1892 MTc in 2030

bullbullbullenergylnnovations

THE INNOVATION PATH

National energy consumption held to 89 Quads in 2010 andis cut to 69 Quads in 2030

Economic growth averages 22 per year under theInnovation Path

Energy savings result in job creation with a net employ-ment boost of nearly 800000 jobs nationwide by 2010

National energy bill held to $560 billion in 2010 Net sav-ings amount to $530 per household per year in 2010

Fossil fuel dependence drops to 79 by 2010 and down to68 by 2030

The country starts a clear transition toward renewableresources which meet 14 of US energy use needs by2010 and 32 by 2030

US petroleum use trimmed to 16 Mbd by 2010 and thendrops to 12 Mbd by 2030

Oil import bill cut to $83 billion by 2010 saving $21 billionper year that would be otherwise largely lost to the economy

US energy intensity declines at 19 per year falling 32by 2010

NOxair pollution is reduced 24 below the 1990 level by2010 falling to 15 million tons per year

S02 pollution is reduced 64 below the 1990 level by 2010dropping to 7 million tons per year

US C02 emissions are cut to 1207 MTc 10 below the1990 level by 2010 and reductions continue pushing emis-sions down to 728 MTc or 45 below the 1990 level by2030

Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23

Copyright copy 1997 by Alliance to Save Energy American Councilfor an Energy-Efficient EconomyNatural Resources Defense Council Tellus Institute and Union of Concerned Scientists

Suggested citation

Energy Innovations 1997 Energy Innovations A Prosperous Path to a Clean EnvironmentWashington DC Alliance to Save Energy American Councilfor an Energy-Efficient EconomyNatural Resources Defense Council Tellus Institute and Union of Concerned Scientists

FOR FURTHER INFORMATIONADDRESSES OFTHE CONTRIBUTINGORGANIZATIONS ARE

Alliance to Save Energy1200 18th St NW Suite 900Washington DC 20036httpy wwwaseorg


1001 Connecticut Avenue NWSuite 801Washington DC 20036httpy wwwcrestorgyaceee

Natural Resources Defense Council40 West 20th StreetNew York NY 10011httpzwwwnrdcorg

Tellus Institute11 Arlington StreetBoston MA 02116httpZwwwtellusorg

Union of Concerned Scientists2 Brattle SquareCambridge MA 02238httpwwwucsusaorg

For additional copies ofEnergy Innovations A Prosperous Path to a Clean Environmentplease contact the Alliance to Save Energy













ACKNOWLEDGMENTS















EXECUTIVE SUMMARY




















EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

iii






~ energylnnovations













1990 2000 2010 2030

846 954 1045 1194335 370 406 48265 78 91 128

1338 1482 1621 1892540 556 648 nla140 125 112 86158 155 155 158

846 886 889 688335 345 324 23265 87 127 222

1338 1287 1207 728540 542 563 nla140 1l6 96 64158 145 136 82

28 7338 131100 5305 21

89 58896 100511 l7



--------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

v



Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal


100

80


20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

bull ~ ~ gt

-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23












ACKNOWLEDGMENTS















EXECUTIVE SUMMARY




















EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

iii






~ energylnnovations













1990 2000 2010 2030

846 954 1045 1194335 370 406 48265 78 91 128

1338 1482 1621 1892540 556 648 nla140 125 112 86158 155 155 158

846 886 889 688335 345 324 23265 87 127 222

1338 1287 1207 728540 542 563 nla140 1l6 96 64158 145 136 82

28 7338 131100 5305 21

89 58896 100511 l7



--------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

v



Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal


100

80


20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

bull ~ ~ gt

-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23










EXECUTIVE SUMMARY




















EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

iii






~ energylnnovations













1990 2000 2010 2030

846 954 1045 1194335 370 406 48265 78 91 128

1338 1482 1621 1892540 556 648 nla140 125 112 86158 155 155 158

846 886 889 688335 345 324 23265 87 127 222

1338 1287 1207 728540 542 563 nla140 1l6 96 64158 145 136 82

28 7338 131100 5305 21

89 58896 100511 l7



--------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

v



Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal


100

80


20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

bull ~ ~ gt

-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23




















EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

iii






~ energylnnovations













1990 2000 2010 2030

846 954 1045 1194335 370 406 48265 78 91 128

1338 1482 1621 1892540 556 648 nla140 125 112 86158 155 155 158

846 886 889 688335 345 324 23265 87 127 222

1338 1287 1207 728540 542 563 nla140 1l6 96 64158 145 136 82

28 7338 131100 5305 21

89 58896 100511 l7



--------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

v



Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal


100

80


20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

bull ~ ~ gt

-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23






~ energylnnovations













1990 2000 2010 2030

846 954 1045 1194335 370 406 48265 78 91 128

1338 1482 1621 1892540 556 648 nla140 125 112 86158 155 155 158

846 886 889 688335 345 324 23265 87 127 222

1338 1287 1207 728540 542 563 nla140 1l6 96 64158 145 136 82

28 7338 131100 5305 21

89 58896 100511 l7



--------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

v



Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal


100

80


20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

bull ~ ~ gt

-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23









1990 2000 2010 2030

846 954 1045 1194335 370 406 48265 78 91 128

1338 1482 1621 1892540 556 648 nla140 125 112 86158 155 155 158

846 886 889 688335 345 324 23265 87 127 222

1338 1287 1207 728540 542 563 nla140 1l6 96 64158 145 136 82

28 7338 131100 5305 21

89 58896 100511 l7



--------------------------------

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

v



Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal


100

80


20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

bull ~ ~ gt

-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23



Nuclear120

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal


100

80


20 =~~~~s--r~~7-~-rr~~i 7 ~~~ - -

bull ~ ~ gt

-- o1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030

~ energylnnovations

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23



25

20

15

10

5

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Solar

Biomass

2005O~--==~--=-=p~-=~-=~~~~--~~~~~~~~~~1990 2025 20301995 2000 2010 2015 2020




EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

bullbull

vii


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23


viii

2000 8000Buildings

sect Industry

0 Transport



1000

500

o1990 2010 2030



1990 2010 2030



o



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23



120

100


60

40

20

o1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010




ix

05I I

+ 773000

04

+ $28 billion

02

03 + $14 billion

01

00Income JobsGDP



















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23

















xi











5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23






5000

4500

4000

3500

3000 ~~~~~L~rlt2500


2000 ~------r-r-r-

1500

1000

500

deg1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 20301995 2000

etagylnnovations

Net Imports


--+-- Non-Hydro

Renewables




~=~-Coal

2025

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23

A GREENER WAY TO GO






xiii









40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23




40






20



30

20

10

o

15

10

5

o1995 2000 2005 20201990

~ energylnnovations

2010 2015 2025 2030











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23











EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A

xv






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23






60

55

50 -

45 -

40 -

35

30

Energy Consumption

bullbull




Energy Intensity

3


197025~--------------------------------------------

2020


1980 1990 2000o

20302010

5

4

2

1
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23
























xix


fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23

fxx

InriiifjatiDnsf



THE PRESENT PATH














THE INNOVATION PATH













Energy Innovations

EI pg7

EI pg17

EI pg21

EI pg23

executive summary - tellus institute

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