evolution of more than moore the 4 waves of...

Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved. © 2012 1

Christophe Fitamant

[email protected]

Evolution of

More than Moore

The 4 waves of semiconductor business

© 2012• 2

Fields of Expertise

• Yole Developpement is a market, technology and strategy consulting company, founded in 1998. We operate in the following areas:

• Our expertise is based on research done by our in-house analysts, conducting open-ended interviews with most industry players.

MEMS & image sensors

Photovoltaic

Advanced Packaging

Microfluidic

& Med Tech

Power Electronics

HB LED, LED & LD Equipment and materials

© 2012• 3

Content of the presentation

• Introduction to the 4 waves of the semiconductor business

• The first wave: – Only a couple of companies can afford the next technology evolutions

• The second wave: – Re-use of semiconductor process to make non IC devices is creating

totally new opportunities.

• The third wave: – How module manufacturing is becoming the future of device makers.

• The forth wave: – A supply chain evolution to maximize the added value and provide

complete services to customers.

• Conclusion: What is happening?

© 2012• 4

First wave: Only a couple of companies can

afford the next technology evolutions

© 2012• 5

2008 Copyrights © Yole Développement SARL. All right reserved.

You know it…

© 2012• 6


What’s happening?

• Moore’s law is still there, but:

– Process R&D costs have been x4 in 6 nodes (90nm-22nm), that means only few companies

can pay for it, most of the others have to share the R&D costs

– Fab start-up costs have been x2 to 3 in 6 nodes (90nm-22nm), only 3 to 4 companies can pay

for it

– Design costs have been x4 to 5 in 6 nodes

– …

• The transitions to 450mm and to the next lithography nodes will clearly further

increase the reduction of the number of companies able to stay at the leading edge

of semiconductor:

– Intel, Samsung, TSMC will be able to afford it

– IBM will develop it with its partners

– Toshiba, GF may be involved

• What will be the reaction of the others?

– Need to find sweet spots in other part of the semiconductor business, but are series of

sweet spots a sustainable strategy?

– For the companies outside the Moore’s law, innovation has to come outside R&D and

process development…

– Not every company will be able to make it…

© 2012• 7

THE SECOND WAVE: RE-USE OF SEMICONDUCTOR

PROCESS TO MAKE NON IC DEVICES IS CREATING

TOTALLY NEW OPPORTUNITIES.

© 2012• 8


Beyond Moore’s law…

“All-in-One chip system

integration Euphoria” Higher Value !!!

© 2012• 9


Evolution of sales of selected

More Than Moore markets

$0M

$10,000M

$20,000M

$30,000M

$40,000M

$50,000M

$60,000M

$70,000M

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MEMS Market LED market Power devices market Microfluidic market Printed electronic Market

© 2012• 10


Generic MEMS Processes by Device Type

Si µphones Acceleros Gyros Magnetom

eters Pressure RF MEMS Oscillators µmirrors µbolometers IJ Heads

Si

µfluidics

Surface

MM

AAC, ADI,

Epcos,

Knowles

(Sony),

Omron (HF

Release for

membrane)

ST, Bosch,

ADI …

(consumer

apps)

ST, Bosch,

ADI …

(consumer

apps)

BSAC,

Tsinghua

U, VTT,

Leti (R&D)

Bosch,

Freescale

(TPMS)

WiSpry SiTime,

Discera TI

All (Ulis,

FLIR, DRS

…)

Ink cavity:

hp

Bulk MM

AAC, ADI,

Epcos,

Knowles

(Sony),

Omron,

Wet

(Omron)/

DRIE for

cavity

VTI

Invensense,

Sensonor,

SSS (bulk

DRIE),

Epson

Toyocom,

Matsushita

(quartz),

VTI

Nozzles:

hp, Canon,

hp

Ion

Torrent

CMOS-

MEMS

Akustica

(but not

only)

Memsic,

ADI (but not

only)

ADI (but not

only)

All (AKM,

Yamaha,

Aichi MI,

Honeywell

…)

X Fab Baolab Sand9 Above IC

for All

Above IC for

All

hp, Canon,

Seiko

Epson,

Kodak,

Silverbroo

ke: Above

IC

MEMS manufacturing can be split between surface micromachining, bulk micromachining and CMOS MEMS approaches.

Table below shows, by device type, which approach corresponds to which device. Red indicates the dominant

manufacturing approaches. In some cases, the three approaches can be mixed (e.g. IJ Heads are done on CMOS while

cavity is done by surface while nozzles can be done by bulk).

© 2012• 11


Testing and

Binning: Wafer

Level, Higher

throughputs

Encapsulation

Materials and Optics:

Ageing and optical

properties

20 Key Technologies & Research Areas Relative Impact on SSL cost of ownership

Contacts/Electrodes:

Transparent

contacts/Electrode

materials and patterns

Contacts &

Electrodes:

p to n layer VIAS

Epitaxy – MOCVD:

Higher yields and

Throughputs - Improved

Material quality

Epitaxy: Cluster tools - New

Epi Technologies

Wafer Level

Packaging:

Silicon TSC,

Wafer Level

Optics

Lithography:

Dedicated

tools, Higher

Throughput

Mirrors: Improve

reflectivity/electrical

properties

Mirrors:

Resonant

Cavities

Phosphors:

Conversion efficiency,

Color Rendering – “IP

free” phosphors

Phosphors:

Quantum dots

Phosphors

Die Singulation

Increased

throughputs and

yields

Substrate

Separation: Laser Lift

Off, other separation

techniques

Thermal

Management:

New materials

for packaging

LED Performance*

Manufacturing

Cost

Surface Texturation:

Patterned substrates /

Roughening

Surface Texturation:

Photonic and Quasi

Photonic Crystals

Current Droop

/ Green Gap /

LED

Structures

Alternative

substrates

#2: Si Large

Diameters

Substrates:

4”, 6”, 8”

Alternative

substrates #1: GaN, ZnO, Si,

Engineered substrates

*: Efficiency, Lumen/package, Color Rendering, Lifetime…

© 2012• 12

MEMS EXAMPLE

© 2012• 13


What is Mems?

• Mems is « just » a way to put into silicon existing non

silicon functions…:

– From bulky mechanical gyro to silicon gyroscope

– From ECM to silicon microphone

– …

• … And to take full benefit of the silicon manufacturing

infrastructure:

– Miniaturization

– Batch manufacturing

– Wafer size scalability

– …

© 2012• 14


Mems business in a few words

• The MEMS market is on a growing curve again and many changes are happening on

the technical side, business model side and supply chain side.

– 20% CAGR in units

– 13% CAGR in revenues

– To become a $21 billion market by 2017.

• Every year brings new business to the MEMS landscape.

– Today, combo sensors are reshuffling the cards in the motion sensing business

– But the MEMS market is still very fragmented, with a number of high volume MEMS

applications still limited today

• However, a whole range of new MEMS devices has now reached the market and new

“emerging MEMS” devices are coming as well:

– Some of them have the possibility to ramp up to large volumes quickly: those that can be

applied to mobile devices (RF MEMS switches, oscillators, auto-focus…)

– Both sensors (humidity, touchscreen,…) and actuators (switches, energy harvesting…) are

driving future growth

– In addition to those emerging MEMS, growth of the MEMS market will come from existing

sensors that are expanding into new market spaces, sometimes using new types of

integration: e.g. pressure sensors for consumer.

• Companies have totally different strategies to address such business…

© 2012• 15

ADVANCED PACKAGING EXAMPLE

© 2012• 16


Evolution of advanced packaging: Mixing the technologies…

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

DIP

QFP

LCC

PGA WL CSP

WB BGA

QFN SOT /

TSOP

FO WLP

FC BGA /

CSP

SiP

PoP / PiP

2.5D interposer

3DIC

Embedded SiP

3D WLP

FO PoP

FO SiP

Heatsink

Thermal grease

Substrate

S

B

D

I

G

B

T

Baseplate

MEMS

Packaging

LED Packaging

Power module

Packaging

Applicative

Packaging Moving to high

performance, low cost,

application driven

packaging techniques

Advanced

Packaging Moving to

high-

performance,

high-density, low

cost, collective

wafer-level-

packaging

technique

standards

Camera module

Packaging

© 2012• 17


MOTHERBOARD &

SUBSTRATE

“Mid-end” Infrastructure Outlook by 2017

DIE (FE) PACKAGE (BE)

WAFER FOUNDRY ASSEMBLY SUBCON

IDMs

Embedded die in PCB &

3D Glass / Silicon interposers

OE

M / E

MS

Flip-chip wafer bumping,

WLCSP, 3D WLP, WLOptics,

2.5D Silicon & Glass interposers,

3DIC with TSV

Value flow Value flow

3D TECHNOLOGIES (STACK DIE, POP, SiP)

Value flow 2000 - 2012

2011 - 2017 2005 - 2017

~ $400B ~ $40B

> $10B

~ $40B

> $1.5B

PCB

IC D

esig

n

Fabless

“Mid-end”

© 2012• 18


Who is taking benefit of this new

business?

• Several players of the supply chain are looking at this business

opportunity:

– Independant companies like CWLCSP, Jcap, Teramikos…

– Large players like TSMC from the front end business but also ASE from

the back end fields

– PCB / PWB houses are moving to embedded die package with assembly

capabilities (Epcos-TDK, Fujikura and Taiyo-Yuden…)

• The re-use of front end semiconductor process for packaging

services is clearly a game changing trends:

– TSMC is willing to get the most added value part of the advanced

packaging fields and be a one stop shop for its customers

– ASE is using it to cut the competition in back end and strengthen its

position of leader

– Independant companies are trying to find a profitable business…

© 2012• 22

LED Lighting Supply Chain Overview

Material /

Substrate Die / Chip

Packaged

LED Module

Lamp /

Light

Engine

System /

Solution

• Assembly of LED package(s) on Printed Circuit Board (PCB)

• Integration of optic, heat sink / thermal management, IC driver / power supply and case

• Enhancement of the lighting fixture

by attaching external lighting

control units

• Combination of module and ballast with a

fixture (additional optics, heat sink and case)

• Encapsulation and deposition of contact

• Coating with phosphor (for white LED)

• Growth of epilayer on wafer

• Structuring and doping of the substrate

Dis

trib

uto

rs

Co

nsu

mers

Luminaire

• Combination of module with additional

optics, heat sink and case

© 2012• 23

LED Lighting Value Chain Trends - Value Transfer

Based on the model “LED for Display Applications”, standardization should also occur for LEDs used in General Lighting applications inducing manufacturing commoditization and value transfer along the

value chain.

Material /

Substrate Die / Chip

Packaged

LED Module

Lamp /

Light

Engine

System /

Solution Luminaire

• New Asian players should enter the business, especially for low- and

middle-end applications

• Despite commoditization, profit can stay high for high-end

applications

• Adding functionality

should increase

margins

• Add functionality

• New designing of

fixtures and

improvement of system

size should increase

margin

• Commoditization of chip manufacturing

• New entrants should also

professionalize the epitaxy process

1

Co

mm

od

itiz

ati

on

/

Sta

nd

ard

iza

tio

n

Pro

fit

Dis

trib

uti

on

&

Va

lue

Tra

nsfe

r

2

Value will go upstream on the value chain!!!

→ To LED module and LED-based lighting products levels

10% 30% 40% 3% 7% 10% Today

In the

Future

© 2012• 24

THE FOURTH WAVE: A SUPPLY CHAIN EVOLUTION

TO MAXIMIZE THE ADDED VALUE AND PROVIDE

COMPLETE SERVICES TO CUSTOMERS.

© 2012• 25


Supply chain evolution

• This wave is more the last impact of all the changes we

have seen:

– Downstream and upstream integration can really provide a

stronger added value, which is new in the semiconductor

business

• Due to the end of the Moore’s law for more than 90% of

the semiconductor manufacturers, new strategies have

to be found in order to maintain a competitive

advantage, evolution along the supply chain is one of

the possibility.

© 2012• 27


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