Evolution and Impact of Transnational Organized Crime

in Latin America

Phil Williams Seminar on “Transnational Organized Crime and the Palermo Convention: A

Reality Check”International Peace Institute

October 6, 2010

Overall Global Impact

• In spite of divergent forms, violent armed groups share certain characteristics.

• “As surprising as it may seem, pirate attacks off Somalia, militias in Lebanon, and criminal armies in Mexico are part of a global pattern and not anomalies.” (Godson and Shultz)

• Organized crime activities are appropriated by Violent Armed Groups around the world

• Major impact in conflict and post-conflict situations

• Results include:– perpetuation of violence – hollowing out of weak states– rise of alternative forms of governance

• Cannot confine ourselves to traditional criminal enterprises

Impact in Latin America

• Some positive economic consequences– Mexican economy helped by money laundering

during recession– Colombia never had foreign exchange crisis

• But devastating political and social consequences – Threats to public security – Increased marginalization of populations – Undermine legitimacy of state – Serious spillover consequences

Trends in Latin America

• Growing consumption of drugs• High levels of violence by both organized

crime and disorganized crime • Change in center of gravity of drug violence • Growing connections between organized

crime and the youth gang phenomenon– Linkages and gang services for TCOs– Graduation of gangs into criminal enterprises

Colombia

• Morphing of former paramilitaries into “new criminal groups”

• FARC’s transformation from insurgency into a set of trafficking organizations

• Mix of competition and cooperation• The move into less violent markets – Europe

and West Africa• Possible decline in cocaine production (Peru+)

Brazil

• Organized crime in Favelas participates in novel/alternative forms of governance (Desmond Arias)

• Drugs in the favelas have lead to increased marginalization according to Janice Perlman

• Capacity to disrupt major cities

Spillover victims

• Venezuela– High levels of corruption – Extreme levels of violence – Colombian operational space– Facilitates African connection

• Guatemala – Weak institutions– Culture of impunity– Gangs, Zetas, Kaibiles

Center of Gravity:Mexican Drug Trafficking

Organizations• Facilitating impact of NAFTA• Unintended consequences of takedown of

Medellin and Cali• Mexicans took over drug markets in United

States – started in west and extended eastward

• Mexico – suffers from location curse between drug producers and a major consumer market

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Submarines

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Tunnels

• Tunnel discovered in January 2006

• 2477 feet long• “very, very

sophisticated”– Ventilation – Cement– Electricity– Pumps

DTO Locations in U.S.

The Profits

• Police found $206 million in house in Mexico City in March 2007

• Profits from imports of pseudoephedrine

• Arrest of Zhenli Ye Gon from Shanghai

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Mexican Drug Violence

• Violence is inherent in organized crime• Criminals live in Hobbesian world outside the law• Confront acute security dilemmas• Force is used defensively and offensively • Criminals and trafficking organizations operate like

medieval barons (betrayals and defections)• Being adept in violence is form of social capital • Charismatic leadership in criminal world is ruthless

leadership

• Nostalgia for the “good old days of Mexican drug trafficking

• In fact, violence from the outset– Astorga – 1950s Sinaloa – to the towns and cities – Culiacan “New Chicago with gangsters in sandals” – DEA agent Camarena kidnapped killed in 1985– October 1985 22 policemen killed in Vera Cruz state – Hector Palma’s wife murdered - decapitated

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• Death of Amado Carillo Fuentes – Juarez • August 1997 4 traffickers in restaurant kill 3

men and 2 women, and kill a policeman. • “Although score settling among rival narco-

trafficantes was commonplace…rarely had it spilled over into public places.”

• Foretaste of things to come!

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Sources of Increased Violence

• Increase in the stakes and rewards• Mexican DTOs replaced Colombian

organizations in US drug markets • Increased weapons capabilities and expertise• The rise of “private military companies” - the

Zetas “given drug traffickers a bad name”

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• Competition among organizations for control of routes, strategic warehouses

• The violence has its own geography: Nuevo Laredo, Tijuana, Juarez, Reynosa Matamoros

• Seems very instrumental or Clausewitzian• Personal or blood feuds among leaders of

drug trafficking organizations• The breakdown of collusion – from PRI to PAN

– and emergence of a government committed to confrontation

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• Cult of the narco-traffickers:– machismo, Jesus Malverde, Narco-corridos

• Some local fights over Mexican retail markets• Youth bulge – 30% of population 15 or under

– generational shift

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• Inadvertent consequence of strategies

of:–Elimination–Decapitation–Amputation

• “Vacancy chains” (Friman) create feeding frenzies

• Government clamp-down – 42% interdiction of cocaine in2006 (UN)

Increased Levels of Violence

• 2006 - 2,221 • 2007 - 2,561 • 2008 - 5,620 in 2008, Zeta claims 6,756• Concentrated in:– Chihuahua (2,266)– Sinaloa (1,152) – Baja California (1,019)

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Trends in Killings 2009

• Reforma estimate – 6,576• El Universal estimate – 7,724– Chihuahua – 2,079 - 3,250– Sinaloa 767 - 930– Durango 637 – 734– Guerrero 638-672

• Leaked government figure – 8,928

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Monthly Drug-related Killings 2007-9

24Source – David Shirk, Drug Violence in Mexico (Jan 2010) p.4

Changing Patterns of Violence

• Alejandro Schtulmann – 4 dimensions in use of terror– emblematic assassinations – increased use of explosives– targeting of civilians– attacks on law enforcement and journalists

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A Broader Perspective

• “Today they generally prefer short-barreled weapons: the .38 caliber and the Magnum .357 with exploding bullets. For more difficult and complex operations they tend to use foreign weapons such as Kalashnikovs, bazookas, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers; not to mention explosives”

• Assassinations – “the body is dissolved in a barrel of acid which is then poured down a drain or a well, or some other convenient spot”

Source: Judge Giovanni Falcone Men of Honor 1992

Judge Giovanni Falcone, Men of Honor 1992

Killed May 23, 1992 (350 Kg)

Comparisons in Context

Mexico Strong state becoming

weak -end PRI monopoly

Elite exploitation to out of control networks

Socially embedded organized crime

Parallels: Russia, Albania

Russia, Ukraine, Italy

Sicily, South Africa, Nigeria

Portfolio of Activities: Opposite Trajectories

• Mexican drug trafficking organizations – In response to

government pressure placed more emphasis on local extortion and kidnapping, as well as human smuggling and trafficking and counterfeit DVD

• The ‘Ndrangheta in Calabria – Began with local

extortion and kidnapping and expanded to drug trafficking through its ndrines overseas and its alliances with Mexican and Colombian organizations

Comparisons

• Only Colombia has had comparable levels of drug violence with Mexico but in Mexico not political (Juarez 192, Medellin, 1980s 400)

• In Russia Business - In Mexico personal• Takes on quality of Albanian blood feuds

(Guzman and the AFO and the BLO) • Campania (Camorra) 3,600 killings from 1979 to

2005; Chihuahua – 5,000 2008-9

Alternative Explanation: Anomic Violence

• Durkheim/Merton/Passas• In Juarez it has become anomic violence –

behavioral and ethical collapse• Gap between aspirations and means to

achieve them/ social dislocation and shock• “violence …woven into the very fabric of the

community and has no single cause, no single motive and no on off button.”

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The Bottom Line

• Mexico is not facing narco-terrorism • Mexico does not have criminal insurgency• Mexico is not becoming a failed state • Mexico is suffering from powerful DTOs• Mexico is suffering from anomic violence

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Lessons from Elsewhere

• Sicily – need to mobilize outrage• Iraq – presence in streets and on foot • Colombia – large number of small groups

preferable to smaller number of large ones• Mexico’s own history – attack across board • Russia - strengthen state structures• Burma – redefine the problem – trafficking is

OK But violence is not

• Thank you for listening• Questions• Contact - ridgway1@pitt.edu

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