Geopolitics of Transnational Organized Crime: Future Challenges

and ThreatsAmbassador Dr Ugljesa Ugi Zvekic

Geography of Transnational Criminal Flows

• Latin America to North America; West/Central Europe;West Africa

• Asia (Afghanistan) to West/Central Europe; Central Asia/RF

• North Africa to West Europe;South/Central Africa to SouthEast Asia/China/Japan

• Eastern Europe to West Europe;South/Central Africa

• West Europe to Eastern Europe/Afghanistan• West Europe - within

Geopolitics of Transnational Criminal Flows

• Suppliers of criminal flows: mostly from developing world and countries in transition

• Receivers: North America and West/Central Europe; Asia

• But• Europe/North America: Suppliers of illegal

arms, precursors, illicit capital flows, money laundering, corruption, female trafficking victims

Geopolitics of Transnational Organized Crime Flows vs. Markets

• Disparity between the geography of criminal flows and criminal markets

• Criminal Flows: from developing to developed• Criminal Markets : developed (but

increasingly developing)• Is geopolitics opportunity framed ?

United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime

(Palermo Convention)• Adopted by GA Resolution 55/25 of 15

November 2000• Entered into force on 29 November 2003• Parties: 179• Serbia: 6 September 2001

Trafficking in Persons and Smuggling of Migrants

• Destinations: North America/West Europe• Origins: Latin America/Eastern

Europe/Asia/AfricaBut

• From Eastern Europe to Africa• From Asia (China/Korea) to Africa• Within EU: more than ½ from EE and the Balkans• Within EU: Ease of movement

Criminal Markets for Persons

• Sexual exploitation: 79%• Forced Labour: 18%• Markets mostly located in North

America/West Europe increasingly in Africa and Asia

• Increased labour exploitation in developed markets due to “making the labour closer to the capital” and demand for counterfeiting

Protocols supplementing UNTOC (1)

• The Protocol to Prevent, Supress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, especially Women and Children: in force as of 25 December 2003; Parties: 159

• Serbia: 6 September 2001• The Protocol against Smuggling of Migrants by

Land, Sea and Air: in force as of 28 January 2004; Parties: 138

• Serbia: 6 September 2001

Protocols supplementing UNTOC (2)

• The Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, their Parts and Components and Ammunition: in force as of 3 July 2005; Parties:107

• Serbia: 20 December 2005

Drugs: Flows

• Heroin: 90% from Afghanistan to Russia and Europe (via the Northern and the Balkan routes)

• Cocaine: vast bulk from the Andean region to North America and Europe (via Central America; West Africa) and Southern Cone of Latin America

• Cannabis: From Africa (Morocco) and Asia (Afghanistan) to Europe; from Central America to North America but increased domestic production; the challenges of legalization (Dutch; Uruquay; Colorado; Washington State)

• New Psychoactive Substances: worldwide production and trafficking

Drugs: Markets

• The largest world market is for cannabis: increased supply from foreign and domestic production – an increasing world market

• Cocaine: decline in the USA market but Europe becoming the largest world market; emerging cocaine market in Southern Cone of Latin America

• Heroin: increasing Russian market but stable European market

• NPS: the fastest growing production, trafficking and world market

International Drugs Conventions

• Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961 as amended by the 1972 Protocol

• Convention on Psychotropic Substances of 1971

• United Nations Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances of 1988

• Serbia (ex-Yugoslavia) party to all three

Cigarette Smuggling

• One of the biggest and the oldest TOC business• Out of estimated USD 16 billion global cigarette trade 25%

is illict• Traditional OC (e.g. Italian Mafia; the Balkan OC; Polish OC;

Russian and CA OC; )• Non-European: Turkish OC; Arabian OC (North

Africa/Middle East)• Within EU: Dutch, Belgium, UK• Hard-core “drug traffickers” but also migrants and elderly

living from a social security allowances (informal economy)• Big multinational companies (e.g. R.J.Reynolds in breach of

the UN and the US embargo on Iraq): Puerto Rico – EU ports – Cyprus – Lebanon – Turkey - Iraq

Cigarette Smuggling: Why still there ?

• One of the oldest smuggling activities• State control vs. unpaid duties and tax evasion

(VAT)• Cigarette smuggling flow: towards markets

with the highest excise rate (UK; Ireland; France; Germany; Nordics) – the Northern trade belt

• Western Balkans considered one of the most dyamic areas for cigarette smuggling

Tobacco Convention• WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco

Control• Adopted in 2003• Entered into force: 19 September 2013• Parties: 177• Serbia: 9 May 2006• Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco

Products• Signed by 56; Nicaragua ratified (Serbia: not

signed yet)

Organized Corruption: Flows

• Corruption flows: gains from corruption trafficked from developing world and countries in transition to investment companies and banks in the developed world

But• Companies from developed world corrupting

partners and public administration in the developing world and countries in transition

Organized Corruption: Markets

• Increasingly becoming organized as it requires many actors to design, effect, launder and legalize/invest

• Less distinction between active and passive corruption

• Less distinction between public and private sector corruption

• Increase due to developmental disparities and investment opportunities

United Nations Convention against Corruption (Medina Convention)

• Adopted by the GA Resolution 58/4 of 31 October 2003

• Entered into force: 14 December 2005• Parties: 170• Serbia: 20 December 2005

Geopolitical Configuration of Transnational Organized Criminal Flows and Markets (1)

• Most criminal flows go то and most criminal markets locate in the world major economic/demographic and political powers: G8 and BRIC(S)

• Most criminal flows eminate from the devloping world

But• criminal markets are increasingly global with

worldwide geographic spread

Geopolitical Configuration of Transnational Organized Criminal Flows and Markets (2)

• Increasing global trend of the TOC to gain (and maintain) licit position through merging legal and illegal flows and markets: the legalization of profit

• Ownership of enterprises or holding of executive/managerial positions : the control over the profit legalization process

• Investments in economic sectors (e.g. entertainment/hotels; construction; waste disposal;) difficult to control

• Links with political parties/trade unions• Increased use of e-technology for criminal enterprise

Italian Criminal Markets• One of the oldest TOC Mafia but also Camorra

and ‘Ndrangheta• Today it is not the control of the territory but the

market control• Criminal market annual value: 170 billion EURO

or 10% GDP• Drug Trafficking: 7.7 b; Extorsion: 4.7 b;

Prostitution 4.6; Counterfeiting 4.5• Construction; Special Litter Disposal; Restaurants;

Hazard Games; Gold exchange

East Asia• East Asia, in particular China, will become the

most prosperous criminal market both in terms of demand and supply:

• Drug trafficking, production, consumption;• Human trafficking/smuggling of migrants• Trafficking in human body parts• Cyber crime• Fraud and corruption• Counterfeiting• Wild life/ivory illicit import

Balkans (1)

• Origins of OC in the Balkans (profit and opportunity driven crime export and import)

• Boom during the 90s Yugoslav conflict and sanctions

• Connections among criminal networks, para-military, local leaders and sometimes security services; connections with ex-Yugoslav and foreign OC groups

• Link between organized crime and corruption

Balkans (2)

• Drug trafficking but also cannabis and NPS production

• Cigarettes smuggling• Extortion• Smuggling of migrants/human trafficking• Corruption• Small arms trafficking• Money laundering• Counterfeited goods production and trafficking

THANK YOU