evolution (2014-2035-2050) of solar electricity (pv, csp): lcoe costs, annual and total co 2 saved,...
DESCRIPTION
International Energy Agency (IEA) Scenarios Blue Map Scenario (also called 2D Scenario): The most relevant Scenario in our opinion. Tries to limit the global warming to 2ºC, equivalent to a CO 2 concentration of 450 ppm and half the 2005 emissions. PV and CSP would represent 6% and 5%, respectively, of the 2050 electricity mix (total for solar: 11%) Roadmap Scenario: This IEA Scenario is the most optimistic Scenario, with a total implementation of 22% for the electricity mix in 2050; however, it is not a global Scenario for all technologies. New Policies Scenario: It is the Scenario with more limitations. It is based on the compromises on renewables made by some countries and it is defined only until 2035.TRANSCRIPT
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Evolution (2014-2035-2050) of Solar Electricity (PV, CSP): LCOE Costs, Annual and Total CO2 Saved, and Financial
Extra-costs, Based on the IEA Scenarios
José M. Martínez-Duart, Univ. Autónoma MadridJorge Hernández-Moro, Univ. Autónoma Madrid
Meeting Energy Group, European Physical SocietyLisbon, November 13-14, 2014
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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REFERENCES
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
[1] J. M. Martinez-Duart, Photovoltaics firmly moving to the terawatt scale, J. Nanophotonics, 2013, 7, 078599.
[2] J. Hernandez-Moro, and J. M. Martinez-Duart, Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2013 119-132.
[3] J. Hernandez-Moro, and J. M. Martinez-Duart, Main parameters influencing present solar electrici[ty costs and their evolution (2012-2050), JRSE 5, 023112 (2013).
[4] R. Guerrero-Lemus, and J. M. Martinez-Duart: Renewable Energies and CO2: Cost analysis, environmental impacts and technological trends, 2013 Springer-Verlag, London.
[5] J. Hernández-Moro, and J. M. Martinez-Duart, Economic analysis of the contribution of photovoltaics to the decarbonization of the power sector, RSER, 41, 1288-1297 (2015).
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International Energy Agency (IEA) Scenarios
Blue Map Scenario (also called 2D Scenario):The most relevant Scenario in our opinion. Tries to limit the global warming to 2ºC, equivalent to a CO2 concentration of 450 ppm and half the 2005 emissions. PV and CSP would represent 6% and 5%, respectively, of the 2050 electricity mix (total for solar: 11%)
Roadmap Scenario:This IEA Scenario is the most optimistic Scenario, with a total implementation of 22% for the electricity mix in 2050; however, it is not a global Scenario for all technologies.
New Policies Scenario:It is the Scenario with more limitations. It is based on the compromises on renewables made by some countries and it is defined only until 2035.
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Mathematical Techniques
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
1.- Input: PV and CSP global targets of cumulative installed power and annual electricity, through 2050, according to several IEA Scenarios.
2.- Development of a mathematical model (closed-form expressions) for the calculation of the future (2013-2050) annual and total C- emissions avoided due to the PV and CSP deployment.
3.- Calculation of the financial extra-costs incurred in the implementation of PV and CSP systems replacing the traditional power generation mixes
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
PV cumulative power and annual electricity production (2003-2012)
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
Learning Curve for PV modules (1976-2013)
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CSP systems: Trough and Tower
IV WMS, Council of Europe, Strasbourg, Oct. 14, 2013
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T. 1: IEA targets: annual electricity and cumulative powerT. 2: Mathematical expressions for E(t) and Q(t), (2013-2050)
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Simulation of PV annual electricity productionfor the three IEA Scenarios considered
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
Simulation of CSP annual electricity production for the three IEA Scenarios considered
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C Cost of the system I Insurance cost
C(0) Initial cost N Lifetime of the system
Q(t) Cumulative installed capacity evolution r Discount rate
Q(0) Initial cumulative installed capacity S Solar resource
LR Learning rate TF Tracking factor
L Land costs η Performance factor
OPEX Operation & Management costs d Degradation rate
Analytical equations for the LCOE model
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
PV: LCOE costs evolution (2013-2050)
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
CSP: LCOE costs evolution (2013-2050)
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CO2 emissions saved
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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PV CSP
E(t): Annual electricity production
F(t): Annual emissions saved per kWh produced
Calculation of annual and total avoided CO2 emissions by PV and CSP technologies deployment
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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Scenario Mix A Mix B UE-27 USA China
New Policies (GTon CO2) 1.97 1.31 1.11 1.68 2.46
Blue Map (GTon CO2) 6.58 4.38 3.80 5.72 8.40
Roadmap (Gton CO2) 9.60 6.39 5.44 8.18 12.01
CSP: Avoided annual emissions (2013-2035) and total CO2 abatement
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
Total CO2 emissions saved (Gton) by PV: Global, EU, USA and China, three IEA Scenarios
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
Total CO emissions saved (GTon) by CSP for several electricity mixes and Scenarios (2013-2035)
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Calculation of annual and total extra-costs for PV and CSP deployment, repowering included
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 20480
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2DS 0%
Roadmap 0%
New Policies 0%
Ann
ual e
xtra
-cos
ts (
US
D b
illion
)
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 20350
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130 New Policies
Blue Map
Roadmap
Ann
ual e
xtra
-cos
ts (
US
D b
illion
)
PV CSP
If “t<2043” and “x-t<30”:
If “t<2043” and “x-t≥30”:
If “t≥2043”:
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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Unitary costs per avoided ton of emissions for PV and CSP (2013-2050)
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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CSP: unit avoided emissions costs (2013-2035) for three electricity mixes
European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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European Energy Group Meeting, EPS, Lisboa, Nov. 13-14, 2014
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