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Evidence based STI Policy formulation, strategy and planning. The SA case and
why indicators matter
Michael KahnCentre for Research Evaluation of Science and Technology,
University of Stellenbosch, South AfricaRoundtable Meeting for the preparation of the
Science, Technology, Innovation and Global Assessment ProgrammeUNESCO, Paris. 4-5 July, 2011
1885 – Kongokonferenz; “Scramble for Africa’
1945 – 1989 Decolonization; consolidation of states; elite formation
1989 – The multi-polar world+ ICT revolution
Bio- & Nanotechnology revolutions accelerate
Doha stutters; global insecurity; inequalities grow, MDGs beckon
Population decline in the North; mobility for survival
Financial imbalances, innovation & greed: 2008 meltdown with nationalization of banks, insurers, auto makers …
Rise of liberation technology: Facebook, texting and Twitter
1. A new ‘Great Game?’
Whence development?
• Some prescriptions reach sell-by date; others revived– Washington vs “BeST” Consensus (Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo); – World Bank “now agnostic with respect to the role of the
State” (Jan 2009); Deregulation no longer the panacea– Higher education investment for all countries (already from
2000)– The challenge of Dutch Disease –the resource curse
• Lessons from the Asian Tigers – Prior investment in people– Learning by doing; develop absorptive capacity through
reverse engineering & technology transfer; export at all costs
• WTO rules, OK?
2. A primer on the political economy of South Africa
Developmental state I (1920 -1980) Apartheid Constructed Crisis; minerals-energy complex + inward industrialization. Lean state (1980 – 2010) adopted under pressure
UNIVERSITIES+
ACADEMIES?
BUSINESS
GOVT. DEPTS INSTITUTES &
MUSEUMSS&T SERVICES
UTILITIES
PUBLIC
SECTOR
Regulatory, ethical & legal, environmental,
IPR
Cultural-
Political norms
Associations
EDUCATION
TRAINING
SKILLS DEV
STANDARDS
WORLD SYSTEM
S.O.E.sNGOs
INFORMAL
SECTOR
ECONOMIC &FINANCIAL SYSTEM
EUROPEANS
ONLY
Social innovation !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1994 - Democracy - Inclusion Constructed Crisis Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP)
then Growth, Employment and Redistribution strategy Establishment of social safety netWide usage of development indicators
2009 – Developmental state II. Agric 3% (9); Manufacturing 32% (26); Services 65%
(65)High HIV, Gini, high unemployment; low skills World class financial system with large carry trade.Domestic TNCs trade in Africa, Middle and Near
East- Sun, Multichoice, Grindrod, Shoprite, ABSA, SASOL, AAC, Old Mutual, Nandos, MTN, ESKOM, Mediclinic, Tongaat-Hulett, Makro, SABMiller etc.Open economy with symptoms of Dutch Disease
• R&D Strategy (2002)• Korea, Australia, Malaysia as exemplars• “Foresight study guides” new missions for ICTs and
Biotech ‘Technology for Poverty Reduction’• GERD; GDP 1% by 2008; HRD - SA Research Chairs;
Centres of Excellence; IP law; Tax Incentive; Institutionalized measurement
• Ethical clearance; GMO and clinical trials registers• Biodiversity and IKS legislation
• International networking; NEPAD, ASTII; AU S&T • Infrastructure – Center for High-speed
Computing• Science Councils – representative staff
demographics; contract income; increased science outputs
• OECD Review of Innovation Policy (2007) • Technology Innovation Agency (2008)
Full-time equivalent researchers, 1992 and 2007
Headcount of researchers: 30 000(Korea was at this level around 1982)Systems grow iff they are nurtured
• Ten Year Innovation Plan (2008) • Space Science – remote monitoring & telemetry• Energy, hydrogen economy & new materials -catalysis• Farmer to Pharma-biotech, plant & animal science• Global dynamics – climate change – remote sensing• Human and Social Dynamics – poverty of technology or
poverty of politics?
• The New Growth Path – low growth; under- employment; binding constraints; go green
• Industrial Policy Action Plan – choosing winners?• What prioritization process? How did the Pebble Bed
Modular Reactor get its funding?• What demands for innovation, by who and with what
expected benefit? • How to measure policy impact, intended and
unintended? • New Public Management and Delivery Agreements –
which targets shall apply?
4. Innovation and the Developmental State
Gateway role affirmed as central to New Growth Path
• Innovation policy subordinate to macroeconomic and industrial policy; Bounded Rationality and Silos
• Yesterday’s innovation system lives in the present• Why is there a high-technology innovation barrier?• Department of Science and Technology has
mandate to coordinate S&T budgets, little authority• High level compacts needed to steer a system
Some lessons
• Indicators matter; they underpin dialogue; require careful interpretation and knowledge of metadata
• Do we measure what matters, or what is measurable?
• In emerging economies could STI be understood as “sourcing, trialing, interacting?”
• Spectrum of IP inc. design, plant varieties and impacts
• For South Africa – dynamism of the services sector• Triple bottom line reporting• Footprint across Africa, but vulnerable to takeover
(Barclays, Vodafone, Walmart, SINOCO, CNOOC, Vale.
Beware of BRICs bearing gifts!
“Roaring Lions”
‐
small innovation systems; high growth
Sources: UNESCO World Science Report, 2011; Web of Science; UIS; http://info.worldbank.org/etools/kam2
Country GERD GERD/G
DP Graduates KEI rank Publications Main
PPP USD m (2007)
Sciences; Engineers
(2009)2006-10 Field
Angola - - 17; 7 127 104 HealthChad - - - - 81 Health
Congo (D.R.) 75.2 0.48 - - 378 Health
Ethiopia 106.3 0.17 2440; 2613 141 2366Agric/Heal
th
Mozambique 83 0.74 343; 162 136 573 HealthZimbabwe - 0.13 - 119 1302 HealthRwanda - - - 143 227 HealthZambia 3.8 0.036 - 123 689 Health
Co-publication or “ me academic hunter, you data gatherer”
African Science, Technology & Innovation Indicators initiative
• New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD)• Organization of African Unity African Union• African Ministers Council on S&T (AMCOST) – Africa’s
S&T Consolidated Plan of Action • Various flagship projects: Biotechnology;
Mathematical Sciences … strengthening evidence- based STI policy
• ASTII – seed funding from SIDA; Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia
• Process to build capacity for STI measurement and indicator production
• Part of the process of deepening the understanding and measurement of STI in developing countries.
• Innovation system approach: “to broaden the discussion of identified structural impediments that tend to constrain and inhibit African economic growth and human development … improving institutions, so that they become broadly participative, transparent and universal, is imperative in redressing the failures of the past and ending the inevitable continuities with path dependencies and trajectories.”
• Training workshops in Pretoria; Frascati and Oslo Manual guidelines; surveys instruments adapted from South Africa. Mix of questionnaire and interview techniques.
• 13 countries contributed to African Innovation Outlook
• GERD by source of funds and sector of performance; and R&D personnel by level of formal qualification and occupation, gender, headcount and full-time equivalent, as well as researchers by gender and field of science.
• Malawi, Uganda and South Africa showed GERD: GDP above 1%.
• With the exception of South Africa and Malawi, the public sector is main performer and funder of R&D
• Basic research: Nigeria (36.1%); South Africa (20.6%) and Tanzania (19.2%).
• Good progress on developing the conversation; now include industry
• Challenge will be to institutionalize capacity and ensure dialogue with policy makers