evaluation of wrf and ecmwf forecasts for spain iea 4th ciemat v2
TRANSCRIPT
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
Evaluation of WRF and ECMWF forecasts for Spain
L. Ramírez, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, L. Martín, A. Navarro, J. Navarro, P. Jiménez, A. Araujo, E. Garcia-Bustamante
CIEMAT (Energy department – Solar Platform of Almería)
E. Lorenz, A. Sood, K. Suselj
Oldenburg University, GermanyEnergy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory
Energy Meteorology Group
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
Objetive
1. Validate ECMWF Analisis Data (ERA-40) Global
Model.
2. ERA-40 is used as initial conditions for Mesoescale
Models for dynamic downscaling.
3. Validate Mesoescale Model with higher temporal
and spatial resolution.
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 3
ECMWF ERA-40 VALIDATION
•Data Period:1994-2004•Reanalisis data of daily Goblal Solar Radiation•Global Model•Resolution 1º ≈ 100Km
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation Granada
MBE:-21.67% RMSE:27.20%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
ECMWF ERA-40 Daily ValidationOviedo
MBE:-7.52% RMSE:39.55%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 8
•Data Period:1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005•#Data: 59 days of data 1416 values.•Reanalisys of Hourly Goblal Solar Radiation•Domain Europe•Resolution 27km
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
40
45
50
55
60
65
WRF DAILY & HOURLY VALIDATION
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 9
WRF RESULTS: HOURLY
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100RMSE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting
% R
MSE
Latitude
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20MBE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting
% M
BE
Latitude
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 10
WRF RESULTS: DAILY
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90RMSE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
% R
MS
E
Latitude
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20MBE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
% M
BE
Latitude
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 11
HOURLY VALIDATION: GRANADA 37.14º
0 500 1000 1500-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MBE: 7.46% RMSE: 34.39%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 12
DAILY VALIDATION: GRANADA 37.14º
Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE:9.14% RMSE:24.36%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 13
HOURLY VALIDATION: OVIEDO 43.35º
0 500 1000 1500-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MBE: -14.56% RMSE: 75.45%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 14
DAILY VALIDATION: OVIEDO 43.35º
Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE: -16.01% RMSE: 64.01%
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 15
SINOPTIC SITUATION 11/2/2005
12:00
Granada
OviedoWRF GHi MAP
CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO
WRF LAND/SEA
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 16
SINOPTIC SITUATION 26/2/2005
12:00
Granada
OviedoWRF GHi MAP
CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO
WRF LAND/SEA
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 17
9/2/200512:00
Granada
OviedoWRF GHi MAP
CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO
WRF LAND/SEA
SINOPTIC SITUATION 3
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 18
SINOPTIC SITUATION 422/2/2005
12:00
Granada
OviedoWRF GHi MAP
CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO
WRF LAND/SEA
4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007
Thank you