World Bank Assistance to Low-Income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Anis Dani, Lead Evaluator, IEGCC International Launch Seminar

Nairobi, December 2, 2013

Outline

  Evaluation Approach

  Portfolio outcomes

  Country level outcomes

  Internal drivers of quality

  Three dimensions of results

  Gender in FCS

  Concluding remarks

Evaluation Approach   Scope:

  Assessment of the relevance and effective of World Bank Group country strategies and assistance programs to FCS

  Focus is on low-income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

  This is an evaluation of WBG performance, not of the performance of partner countries

  Methodology:

  Comparative analysis of 33 IDA-only FCS with 31 non-FCS – portfolio and country results, budget, staffing, and aid flows

  Comparison across time – FY07-12 compared with FY01-12

  6 case study countries (Cameroon; Congo, DR; Nepal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Republic of Yemen)

  3 Country Program Evaluations (Afghanistan, Liberia, Timor-Leste)

  Other countries with fragile and conflict-affected situations will be the subject of a separate evaluation

Portfolio outcomes in IDA FCS have improved

Scope of work

  The World Bank Group has a long history of engagement in FCS – exemplified in the name IBRD

  Historically, portfolio performance in FCS lagged significantly behind other countries

  Since 2007, results in IDA FCS indicate a turnaround

  FCS IDA countries perform better than non-FCS IDA, and are almost at par with Bankwide average

Outcomes by number of projects

However, results in the private sector have been weaker Late start and weak results in FCS

  IFC investments in IDA FCS lag behind that in non-fragile countries.

  One third of the FPD projects evaluated in FCS were MS+, compared to two-thirds in non-fragile IDA countries.

  IFC’s Advisory Services in FCS perform at par with projects in countries that are not fragile.

  MIGA’s portfolio growth recent, with few guarantees evaluated to draw meaningful conclusions. SIPs struggle financially & operationally.

IFC commitments grew faster in non-FCS

Project outcomes not matched by outcomes at country level

  The Bank is most responsive to fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) in the immediate aftermath of conflict

  FCS classification is inaccurate

  Country assistance strategies are not well adapted to FCS

  Prolonged use of ISNs, which are not evaluated, is problematic

  Recent CASs reflect greater attention to fragility/conflict drivers but effects on operations not yet evident

  Sustained budget support in FCS is positively correlated with policy and institutional results

Share of ODA to FCS from donors

The share of overall official development assistance (ODA) flows in IDA-only countries has changed in favor of FCS

However, the share of IDA flows to FCS remains below 30% of total IDA commitments

Positive effects of internal drivers on results need to be sustained   FCS classification based on CPIA ratings is no longer

consistent with fragility and conflict risks in many FCS. Classification leads to errors of omission and too rapid graduation from FCS list

  Fragility analysis for CAS needs to be taken into account in design of operational programs

  Internal drivers of quality since 2007 need to be sustained:

  increased staff and project budgets

  huge increase in TA financed by Trust Funds

  Incentives at IFC and MIGA need more attention

  Despite increased field presence, IFC HR incentives not fully aligned with Bank incentives, and performance incentives are not aligned with strategy for FCS

  MIGA faces similar challenges due to smaller size and complexity of underwriting projects in FCS.

Results assessed along three strategic dimensions

Building capacity of the state

Building capacity of citizens

Supporting inclusive growth and jobs

Building state capacity

  Relatively good progress on public financial management where sustained support has been most effective

  Recent attention to public expenditure reviews of security sector draws on Bank’s comparative advantage

  Efficiency of revenue mobilization also improved in FCS

  Civil service reform has been more challenging; of necessity, reliance on PIUs and externally-funded consultants leads to sustainability issues

  On decentralization, more effort and results in AFR than in other regions where lack of consensus within government and among donors affects progress

Building capacity of citizens

  WB investments in FCS widely acknowledged as increasing access to education and health services

  Most FCS are likely to achieve at least one of the MDG targets, although FCS lag behind non-fragile IDA states

  State capacity strengthened by outsourcing to private and non-profit service providers, especially in health

  Results monitoring is mixed, with more focus on outputs than outcomes

  Increased attention to voice, accountability and third party monitoring, which can be an

CDD and citizen capacity

  CDD growth in IDA FCS to build local institutions and provide public goods and services

  Especially useful in countries with diverse populations, where governments previously lacked outreach to all communities and ethnicities due to weak infrastructure and public services (e.g., Afghanistan)

  Where large-scale programs exist, CDD has enhanced reach of the state and enhanced its legitimacy

  But CDD programs in FCS have not evolved over time and in many countries have not yet developed plans for sustainability

Inclusive Growth and Jobs

  Support for inclusive growth and jobs has been slow and faces continued challenges in IDA FCS

  Investment climate support necessary but not sufficient. Other PSD constraints—power, transport, land not adequately addressed

  WBG support for agriculture not commensurate with its effects on food security and employment in FCS

  Support for natural resources focused on regulatory reform with less attention to local economic development and fragility risks

  WBG synergies in telecom, power sector, and microfinance have played transformational role, but only found in a few countries

  WBG lacks a strategic and effective framework for job creation in FCS: short-term jobs and skills development programs lack synergies with education and the private sector

Gender in FCS

  In several FCS, women and girls have been deliberately targeted to humiliate, intimidate, punish, and forcibly displace members of a community or ethnic group

  Demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration (DDR) programs were not gender-sensitive and focused primarily on ex-combatants; few programs for victims of violence

  Ffew good examples in FCS (AFG, Nepal) of linkages from analytical work to strategy, to project interventions.

  Overall, despite recognition of gender disparities in some CASs, very few programs addressed these constraints beyond health, education and CDD projects.   No evidence of measures to address gender-based violence or

the constraints identified by IFC Women, Business, and the Law database

  Lack of targeted programs for economic empowerment of women in FCS affected by gender-based violence, despite increase in female-headed households

Concluding Remarks

Operationalizing the 2011 WDR

  Progress made but this effort needs to be sustained and, in some areas, intensified

  CASs in FCS more fragility focused but operations need to adapt accordingly

  Community of Practice and knowledge management

  Partnerships with UN have improved at corporate level; results more mixed at country level

  Security—support for DDR and PERs in security sector

  Justice—J4P not well integrated in CAS or operations; and lack of clarity of niche and comparative advantage

  Jobs—need a framework and WBG synergies

  Risks and results—need more realistic risk assessment and monitoring, and contingency planning.

Recommendations

  The Bank Group should develop a more suitable and accurate mechanism to define FCS status

  CASs should be tailored better to FCS, with clear articulation and monitoring of risks and contingencies for rapid adjustment if those risks materialize

  Provide increased support to reform-oriented FCS for capacity building through predictable, programmatic budget support, complemented by TA and Ils

  Develop and implement a plan to ensure the institutional sustainability of CDD programs

  programs need to be more responsive to the conflict context and help address effects of violence against women and the legal constraints on economic empowerment

  develop a more realistic medium- to long-term framework for inclusive growth and jobs in FCS and ensure synergies across WBG

  IFC and MIGA should adapt their business models, risk tolerances, product mix, sources of funds, staff incentives, procedures, and processes to be more responsive to the special needs of FCS

https://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/evaluations/

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URL for the full report released on December 2, 2013