Evalua&on  of  gaseous  and  par&culate  emission  inventories  over  the  Eastern  Mediterranean  basin

Luca  Pozzoli1,  Alper  Ünal1,  Tayfun  Kındap1,  and  Ulaş  Im2  [1]  Eurasia  Ins-tute  of  Earth  Sciences,  Istanbul  Technical  University,  Turkey.    [2]  Environmental  Chemical  Processes  Laboratory,  University  of  Crete,  Greece.  (Contact:  pozzoli.ist@gmail.com)  

1.OBJECTIVES   A   good   es3mate   of   anthropogenic   emissions   is   crucial   for   simula3ng   ozone   and  aerosol   concentra3ons.   Although   high-­‐resolu3on   European   emission   inventories  exist   and   they   have   been   applied   in   several   studies,   their   quality   has   not   been  evaluated  uniformly  for  all  the  regions.  

 The  Eastern  Mediterranean  is  expected  to  be  affected  significantly  by  climate  change  and  it  is  a  region  in  which  the  emission  inventories  have  higher  uncertainty    due  to  lack  of  informa3on.  

 In   this   study   three   exis3ng   emission   inventories   are   evaluated   over   the   Eastern  Mediterranean   basin.   We   evaluate   the   effect   of   different   resolu3on   and   spa3al  distribu3on  of  emission  fluxes  on  the  ozone  and  aerosol  concentra3ons.  

2.METHODS   Model domain: 30 x 30 km horizontal

resolution covering all Europe (Fig.1)  High resolution nested domain (d02 Fig.1):

10 x 10 km horizontal resolution  Meteorological fields reproduced with WRF

model  Chemical composition of the atmosphere

calculated with CMAQ4.7.1  2 months simulated: January and July 2009  3 different emission inventories Fig.   1:  Model   domain   used   for  WRF  meteorological   and   CMAQ   air   quality  

simula3ons  

3.EMISSION  INVENTORIES   Inventories   for   10   anthropogenic   emission  sectors   (CORINAIR)   of   gases   (CO,   NOx,   SOx,  NMVOC,  NH3)  and  aerosols  (PM2.5  and  PMcoarse)  representa3ve  of  year  2005  (Fig.2,  3):  

1. EMEP  (Fig3a):  0.5°  Lat  x  0.5°  Lon  

2.  INERIS/EMEP  (Fig3b):  0.1°  Lat  x  0.1°  Lon  

3. TNO/MACC  (Fig3c):  1/8°  Lat  x  1/16°  Lon  

Fig.  2:  Total  annual  emissions  of  CO,  NOx,  SOx,  and  PM2.5  [Mg/year]  by  sector  for  Turkey  (TK),  and  other  countries  of  the  Balkan  Peninsula  (Greece,  GR;  Bulgaria,  BG;  Romania,  RO;  Cyprus,  CY;  Macedonia,  MK;  Serbia  and  Montenegro  ,  YU;  Albania,  AL;  Hungary,  HU;  Bosnia  Herzegovina,  BH;  Croa3a,  HR).  E=EMEP,  I=INERIS/EMEP,  T=TNO/MACC.  

a)  

b)  

c)  

Fig.   3:   Total   annual   NOx   [Mg/km2/year]   emissions   from   the   3   inventories   in  their  original  horizontal  resolu3ons:  a)  EMEP;  b)  INERIS/EMEP;  c)  TNO/MACC.    

 At   30   x   30   km   resolu3on,   the   O3   and  PM2.5   concentra3ons   simulated   with    INERIS/EMEP   preserves   the   general  geographical   pajerns   of   EMEP  simula3on.   TNO   simula3on   show   large  differences  in  par3cular  over  Turkey.    

 At  10  x  10  km  resolu3on,  large  differences  between  TNO/MACC  and  INERIS/EMEP  O3  concentra3ons   (Fig.4)   are   found   over  Central   Anatolia   (>10   ppbv),   and   in   the  South   Eastern   Mediterranean   region   (>8  ppbv).   Over   Istanbul   and   Izmir   we   have  lower   concentra3ons   (up   to   -­‐12   pbbv).  Distribu3on   of   NOx   emissions   is  par3cularly  important  in  winter.  

 At   10   x   10   km   resolu3on,   TNO/MACC  simula3on   shows   a   large   number   of   PM  sources  which  are  not  present   in   INERIS/EMEP   (Fig.5).   The   differences   in  monthly  mean  PM2.5  are   up   to   5  µg  m-­‐3,   both     in  winter  and  summer.    Fig.  4:  Monthly  mean  O3  surface  concentra3ons  (ppbv)  calculated  by  the  CMAQ  model  at  10  x10  km  resolu3on  for  January  (top  row)  and  July  

(bojom   row)  of   year  2009.   In   the  first   column  are   shown   the   results  using  TNO/MACC  emissions.   The   second   column   shows   the  differences  between  the  TNO/MACC  and  INERIS/EMEP  experiments.  

Fig.  5:  Monthly  mean  PM2.5  surface  concentra3ons  (µg  m-­‐3)  calculated  by  the  CMAQ  model    at  10  x10  km  resolu3on  for  January  (top  row)  and  July  (bojom  row)  of  year  2009.  In  the  first  column  are  shown  the  results  using  TNO/MACC  emissions.  The  second  column  shows  the  differences  between  the  TNO/MACC  and  INERIS/EMEP  experiments.  

6.OMI  SATELLITE  OBSERVATIONS:  NO2     7.CONCLUSIONS  

Acknowledgements:   We   would   like   to   thank   EMEP   (www.emep.int)   for   providing   the   emissions   inventory.   The   con-nental   scale   EMEP/INERIS  emissions  inventory  was  provided  by  G.  Siour  (LISA/IPSL/INERIS)  and  B.  Bessagnet  (INERIS)  and  the  CItyZen  project.  The  TNO/MACC_2005  emissions  inventory  was  provided  by  H.  Denier  van  der  Gon  at  TNO.    

Fig.  6:  Total  column  NO2  concentra3ons  averaged  for  January  2009  from  OMI  satellite  observa3ons.  

Fig.  7:  Monthly  mean  anomaly  (January  2009)  of  total  column  NO2  concentra3ons  expressed  as  the  ra3o  over  the  standard  devia3on,  ([NO2]-­‐mean[NO2]reg)/SDreg.  a)  NO2  OMI  satellite  data;  b)  NO2  simulated  using  TNO/MACC_2005  emissions;  c)  NO2  simulated  using  INERIS/EMEP  emissions.    

a)   b)   c)  

 All   the   three   emission   inventories  largely   underes3mate   NO2  concentra3ons   as   compared   to  OMI  (Fig.6).  

 NO2  geographical  distribu3on  is  not  captured   for   many   regions   of   the  Balkans  and  Turkey  (Fig.7).    

 NO2   distribu3on   from   TNO/MACC  are   slightly   bejer   over   Turkey  (larger   Istanbul   plume,   Izmir)   and  Greece  (Athens  and  Thessaloniki).  

Istanbul  

Ankara  

Izmir  

Athens  

Thessaloniki  

Adana  Mersin  

Bucharest  

4.MODEL  RESULTS  

Janu

ary  2009  

July  2009  

PM2.5  OZONE    

 The   three   inventories   provides   similar   total   annual   emissions,   the   main   difference  consists  in  the  geographical  distribu3ons.  

 The  variability  of  monthly  mean  O3  concentra3ons  due  to  different  emission  inventory  is  in  the  range  of  ±12  ppbv  (Fig.4),  ±5  µg  m-­‐3  for  PM2.5  (Fig.5).    

 Over  the  Eastern  Mediterranean  the  3  emission  inventories  underes3mate  the  pollutant  concentra3ons.   TNO/MACC   shows   slightly   bejer   results   in   terms   of   geographical  distribu3on  of  the  pollutants,  however  a  bejer  emission  inventory  for  Turkey  is  needed.  

 “Development  of  Na3onal  Air  Pollu3on  Emissions  Management  System”:  

 Funded  by  the  Turkish  Ministry  of  Environment  (4M  Euro),  36  months  (2012-­‐2015)    

 Define  ac3vi3es  and  emission  factors  for  anthropogenic  emission.  

 Pilot  region:  Marmara  (Istanbul,  Bursa,  >60%  popula3on  and  GDP  of  Turkey).  

 On-­‐line  system  for  the  Turkish  Ministry  of  Environment  and  emissions  for  AQM.  

EMISSION  PROCESSING  SOFTWARE  

EMISSION  INVENTORY  DATABASE  

DATA  SOURCES  

ACTIVITIES  

EMISSION  FACTORS  

OTHER  DATA  (popula&on,  roads,  …)  

EMISSION  CALCULATION  SOFTWARE  

POINT  SOURCES  

AREA  SOURCES  

MOBILE  SOURCES  

NATURAL  SOURCES  

QUALITY  CONTROL  

INTEGRATION  

AIR  QUALITY  MODEL  

Time  profiles  

Vert.  profiles  

Gridding  

Chem.  Spec.  

WEB  PORTAL  (GIS)  

REPORTS: