european space weather initiatives - · pdf file– innovative instrumentation/sensor...
TRANSCRIPT
EuropeanSpaceWeatherInitiatives
IanMcCreaSTFCRutherfordAppletonLaboratory
EISCAT_3DKick-OffMeeting,Tromso,06-08/09/2017
Contextofthistalk• ThistalkpartlyrepeatsapresentationgivenbymeattheEUH2020Stakeholders
eventinBrusselslastyear
• TheseareperiodicmeetingswhichaimtosolicitideasaboutmaterialtobecoveredbytheongoingEUworkprogrammein“spacescienceandspaceenvironment”.
• Headingincludesexploitationofscientificspacedataandinstrumentation,andalsospaceenvironmentscience(coveringspaceweatherandspacedebris)
• Mybriefwastocontributetothesecondofthese
• Lookingforareasnotcoveredbyotherorganisations(e.g.ESA)inimplementingaEuropeanstrategy
• NotethattherewasasignificantparticipationinthisactivitybyESA,incontrasttosomesimilareventsinthepast.
DataExploitationSegmentThisactivityaimsto:
• Supporttheexploitationofscientificspacedatadeliveredbyspacescienceandspaceexplorationmissions:– Widevarietyoffieldsidentifiedbystakeholders:astronomyandastrophysics,
exo-planets,solarsystemexploration,cometsandasteroidsmicrogravity,humanspaceflightandroboticexploration
• Fostersynergiesbetweenspace-basedandground-basedobservations
• Developmentofmissionconceptsandscientificintrumentation– Conceptsforfuturescientificandexplorationmissions– Earlystagesofscientificinstrumentationdevelopment– Innovativeinstrumentation/sensordesignanddevelopmentinvolvingmulti-
disciplinaryscientific,engineeringandindustrialteams
DataExploitation:DiscussionIdeasThequestionsaskedtothepanelgivesomeinsightintowhattheCommissionisthinking:
• DoesthescientificuseofspacedatarepresentafundinggapinEurope,ornot?Howtohandleoversubscription?Shouldtopicsbenarrowedtofocusonspecificfields?Whichones?
• Howimportantissupporttocross-bordernetworkingofscientificteamstoincreasescientificproductivityandleadtobreakthroughandinnovation?
• Internationalcooperationwithnon-EUteamsisparticularlyimportant,alsointhecontextofthepreviousquestion.Howcanitbefurtherstimulatedandsupported?
HELCATS:Heliospheric Cataloguing,Analysis&TechniquesService(www.helcats-fp7.eu)
• to catalogue both transient (CMEs) & background (SIRs/CIRs) solar wind structures imaged by the STEREO/HI instruments, including estimates of their kinematic properties based on a variety of established modelling techniques and the prototyping of other, more speculative, approaches;
• to verify these kinematic properties, and thereby assess the validity of these techniques, through comparison both with solar source observations and in-situ measurements at multiple points throughout the heliosphere;
• to assess the potential for initialising advanced numerical models based on the derived kinematic properties of the transient & background solar wind structures;
• to assess the complementarity of using radio observations to detect structures and diagnose processes in the heliosphere (in particular Type II radio bursts and interplanetary scintillation) in combination with heliospheric imaging observations
• to catalogue both transient (CMEs) & background (SIRs/CIRs) solar wind structures imaged by the STEREO/HI instruments, including estimates of their kinematic properties based on a variety of established modelling techniques and the prototyping of other, more speculative, approaches;
• to verify these kinematic properties, and thereby assess the validity of these techniques, through comparison both with solar source observations and in-situmeasurements at multiple points throughout the heliosphere;
• to assess the potential for initialising advanced numerical models based on the derived kinematic properties of the transient & background solar wind structures;
• to assess the complementarity of using radio observations to detect structures and diagnose processes in the heliosphere (in particular Type II radio bursts and interplanetary scintillation) in combination with heliospheric imaging observations
HELCATS:Heliospheric Cataloguing,Analysis&TechniquesService(www.helcats-fp7.eu)
SpaceEnvironmentSegment• SpacedebrisandSpaceControl
• Protection/shieldingagainstdebrisimpacts• Solutionsforpost-missiondisposal• Legal/strategicissueslinkedtospacedebrisremoval
• SpaceWeather• Awareness-raisingamongusers
• Spaceinfrastructure• Powergrids,transportnetworks• Criticalinfrastructure(telecom,financialsystems,etc.)
• ContributeenhancedforecastingmodelstothespaceweatherserviceinfrastructuresdevelopedbyESA(sensors– spaceorground,dataprocessing)
• Science• Understandingthephysics(Sun,Sun-Earthsystems)• Modelling
SpaceEnvironment:DiscussionIdeas
1. Canthespacedebrisproblembeaddressedsolelyby"passive"means(shieldingofspacecraftsandpayloads,anti-collisionmanoeuvres,self-deorbiting/movetodisposalorbit)?
– Whichtechnologiesandlegal/societalissuesneedtobeaddressed?
2. Wherearethebottlenecksforachievingbetterforecastingofspaceweather?
– Howshouldtheybeaddressed?
3. Inwhichareaswouldinternationalcooperationwithnon-EUteamsbedesirable?
EUSSTProject:2016/17InvolvingthenationalspaceagenciesofFrance,Germany,Italy,SpainandUK
– IntendingfutureparticipantsincludePoland,Romania,Portugal
1SST:EstablishingtheexistingEuropeanSSTnetwork• Usercoordination• Securityissues• Sensorfunction• Processingfunction• Servicefunction
2SST:ImprovingEuropeanSSTcoordination• Projectmanagement• Governance• Consolidationofsensorfunction• Consolidationofprocessingfunction• Consolidationofservicefunctionandusercoordination
3SST:ExpandingthefutureEuropeanSSTcapability• Futureenvironmentevaluationandarchitecturetrade-off• Studiesofsensorandprocessingcapabilities• Upgradesofsensorsandprocessingcapabilities
HowshouldEUfundingfitin?• ESAdeliversmainlyoperationalactivityinSSTandspaceweather
– Looksforcomplementaryresourceforunderpinningscience– NaturalroleforEUH2020todeliverscienceunderpinningtofocus/improveoperations
• Inourarea(upperatmosphere/spaceweather)keyneedtodrivescienceforpredictionservices:– Especiallytrueforspaceweatherimpactprediction/warning– Alsotosomeextentforspacedebrisandsatelliteorbitprediction
• EuropehassignificantassetsoutsidetheESAremit,whichshouldbeintegratedintoa widerframework– Modelsintheresearchcommunity– Ground-basedobservingsystems(andnon-ESAspace-basedassets)fundednationally– Archivesandinfrastructuresforsharing/combiningdata
• OneroleforH2020couldbetoestablish:– Whichofthesecapabilitiesarethebest/mostrelevant– Howtheyshouldbeused– Howtheycouldbedevelopedtobecomemoresignificant– ThedriverforthesefundingschemesmustbeSCIENCE,notoperations
• WhatshouldbeintheoverallEUframework?– Modelling– Eventprecursors– Definitionofobservation/theoryneeds– Dataassimilation/distribution/useofpastdata– Newinstrumentdevelopment– Interpretationofresultsandconsequentco-ordination
Searchingforeventprecursors• Canwespotpotentialeventsbeforetheyevenstarttodevelop?
– SolarFlares/CMEs• PrecursorsinX-rayflux• WeakflareshavenoCMEs,someCMEsdonothaveflares• Significanceofcoronaldimming/coronalwaves
– Energeticparticleevents• Solarflarerelated• Energisationatshocks(Fermiaccelerationandshockdrift)• Differencesbetweenimpulsiveandgradualevents
– Magnetospheric substorms• Wavelikephenomenainthemagneticfield/aurora(KHinstability)• Particularwavefrequenciesandlocationsofinterest?(e.g.McPherron,1980)• Changesincurrentmorphology
• Dataminingapproach– Startwithknownevents– Workbackwardslookingatprecursorcharacteristics– Definewhatobservationsmightbeneededwhere
• Integrateeffortswithsimilarstudieselsewhere
Validation/improvementofmodels• Somemodelsalreadyperformreasonablywell
– e.g.solarwindpropagationmodels– Theycanbefurtherimproved,however,e.g.byassimilationofdata– Whatistherightkindofdataforeachmodel?– Howmuchdatais“enough”?– Whattypesandpositionsarekeyforobservations?
• Somemodelshaveknownshortcomings,buttheseareinsufficientlycharacterised– e.g.highlatitudeionosphericmodels– Whattypesofdataconstraintwouldmakepredictionsbetter?– Whatistherightchoiceofbasismodel?– Concentrateonafewkeymodels(e.g.solarwind,GPSscintillation,atmosphericdragmodelling)
• Sometimesphysics-basedmodelsaremuchworsethanempiricaltechniques– Wheredoempiricaltechniquesfail?– Aretherecommonfactorswhenthishappens?– Isthereanykindofimprovementthatcanmakethisbetter?
• Predictivecapabilitiescanbelostwhenmodelsarejoinedtogether– Whichexistingmodelscanbeeffectivelyintegrated?– Whichparametersarebest/worstreproduced?– Howcanthisbeimprovedbydataconstraint?
• Collaborationwithsimilarinitiativesworld-wide– Mostnotably:NASA/NSFcoupled modellinginitiativeandworkatCCMC
Howcanourdatahelpus?• Someofourmodelsarepurelyempirical
– Physics-basedmodellingtoocomplicated• e.g.inionosphericscintillation
– Insuchcases,moredataoughttodeliverbetterspecification– Sometimeswelackthedata,however!
• Interactionofphysics-basedmodelswithdata– Ensembleforecasting– Dataassimilationtoconstrainmodels– Thisisbeingdonetosomeextent,e.g.ENLILforheliosphere– Canextendintootherareas,e.g.atmosphericdragmodelsforSST– Verificationofmodelcoupling(helpingtomaketherightjoin)
• Someimportantgeneralprinciples– Maybenotallmodelscanbewell-enoughconstrainedbythisapproach– Whataretherightkindsofdataforconstraint?– (Howmuch)doesitmatterwherethesedatacomefrom?– Howmuchdata(ofeachkind)is“enough”?– Curationofthesedataisvital– HPCcapabilities??
Validatingandsharingdata• Wearearguablynotmakingthebestuseofthedatawehave
– Especiallyintheground-basedsector,whereESAtakesabackseat– Bigsensors,developedwithEUfunds,arenotwellconnectedtowider
strategicpicture(e.g.EISCAT_3D)– Dataneedtobeopenandaccessible!– Smalldistributedsensorsareveryvaluable
• Mayneedmorecoordination• Needhelptopooltheirdataandmakeitavailable• Afewgenerictechnologiesmayhelpmultiplegroups• Some,likeSuperDARN andSuperMAG havedonethisinspiteoflackofresources
– EUFP7hasdevelopedtechnologiesfordata-sharingwithnofollow-on• (e.g.ESPAS,HELIO)• Whatisthelegacyfortheseproject?
– Datacalibration/validationisanissueforeveryone
• Datadistributionneedstobegearedtomodels– Ifanimportantmodelneedsdataassimilation,shouldprioritisethatdataset– Notalldatashouldbeassimilated!
• Someshouldbereservedforvalidation
Improvingourinstrumentcapabilities(I:Space)
• Needformultipledistributedsensors
• Highcapabilitybutsmallsize:– Smallopticsinstruments– Miniaturisedparticleinstruments/dosimeters– Hostedpayloads(perhapsnotjustinspace)– Morecompactlargeinstruments(reducingmassbudget)
• Nicheinstruments,withnewtechnologies– Polarisationimagers(Hanle effectonINSTANT)– Ground-basedradiotechniquesformagneticfield(Faradayrotation)and
interplanetaryscintillation– Pulsecompressionupgradesforimprovedobjectranginganddetection
• SomeofthesethingsalreadybeingconsideredbyESA,butneedunderpinningtechnologydevelopmentandresearch
Improvingourinstrumentcapabilities(II:Ground)
• Needformultipledistributedsensors
• Smalldistributedsensors– Densernetworksofhigh-latitudeGPS– Magnetometers,radioinstruments– Polarandequatorialregions
• Workwithpartnersathighandlower-latitudes• Increaselatitudinalcoverage
• Betterintegrationofglobalsensors– Globalopticalsensorsfortrackingandtransients– Networkingofinstrumentsinremotelocations– Developmentandproofofalert/taskingcapabilities– Datasharingbystandardmethodsisvital!
• Newlargeinstruments– DefiningarelevantSW/SSTprogrammeforEISCAT_3D– Spaceweatherapplicationsonotherinstruments(LOFAR,SKA…)
• IntegrationwithobservingsystemsoutsideoftheEU– Participationinalready-definedinternationalframeworks– WorkwiththeNorthAmericancommunity– COSPARSpaceWeatherRoadmapisSCIENCE
TheGround-BasedInfrastructureproblem
• GroundbasedinstrumentsforSTPinEuropeareoftennationally/institutionallyfunded
• Suchfundingisoftentime-limitedandpiecemeal
• Hardwareanddataarenotstandardised,evenforinstrumentsofthesameclass
• Somelevelofdatacollectionandcombinationhasbeenfunded,asone-offprojects,withoutsufficientassuranceofcontinuity
• ThismightbeOKforlargeinstruments(EISCAT)butthereisarealproblemforsmallerones
• Thereisoftennoframeworkforconnectinginstrumentdatawithmonitoringandmodellinginitiatives.
• Allofthisgreatlyinhibitsthevaluethatwegetfromourground-basedinstrumentsandrestrictstheiruserbase.
SynergieswithINFRADEV• EISCAT_3DcameaboutwithEUsupportfromINFRADEV,ultimatelyleadingto
inclusionintheESFRIroadmap
• ThisbringsupthequestionofwhetherthereshouldbeadedicatedEuropeanspaceweatherinfrastructure,asanumbrellaforthesmallerinstruments
• Suchaninfrastructurewouldfacilitatecontinuityoffunding,instrumentdevelopmentandcoordination
• ItwouldcomplementtheESAactivitiesbyprovidingasustainablebasisforinstrumentoperationsanddatasharing
• Itwouldcollaboratewithexternalinstrumentinitiatives(SuperMAG,MAPGPS,GLORIAetc.)
• ItwouldfacilitateinteractionwiththemodellingandHPCcommunities
• ThiswasdiscussedtosomeextentattherecentIAUsymposiuminExeter:seeIngrid’sforthcomingpaper“ChallengesandStrategicResearchPlansforEarthandHeliosphere: ResearchInfrastructures,ProjectsandInitiatives”