european mhcv outlook - markitconfidential. © 2017 ihs markittm.all rights reserved. sales outlook...
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Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany
Christiane Stein, Principal Research Analyst,
+49 89 895 269 035, [email protected]
EuropeanMHCV Outlook
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
• Sales Outlook
• Global Truck Markets
• European Drivers
• European Top Truck Markets
• Production Outlook
• Global Truck Output
• Global Bus Output
• European Output
• Technology Outlook
• Emission Standard overview
• Global fuel type overview
• European Regulations
• IHS Automotive view of autonomous driving, connectivity and
alternative fuels
2
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Sales Outlook
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
3
Christiane Stein, Principal Research Analyst, +49 89 895 269 035, [email protected]
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Mixed Outlook in 2018 – Vanishing Special Effects in China Shrink the Global
Truck Demand – Eastern Europe & North America on the rise
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
4
World Truck Sales >6t
Source: IHS Markit
© 2018 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. Provided “as is”, without any warranty. This map is not to be reproduced or disseminated and is not to be used nor cited as evidence in connection with any territorial claim. IHS Markit is impartial and not an authority on international boundaries
which might be subject to unresolved claims by multiple jurisdictions.
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
AsiaChina India Rest
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
EuropeWE CE EE
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
AmericasNA SA
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
World
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Drivers of the European Truck market
Brexit
• UK triggered Art. 50 on 29 Mar 2017
• High degree of uncertainty around
the future relations of the UK with the
EU not good for business
• Hard Brexit:
• Independent trade deals
• Losing full access to single market
• Reverting to WTO rules
• Applying new rules within the UK
• Soft Brexit:
• Remaining close to the existing
arrangements with the EU
• Accepting free movement of
goods, services, people and capital
• Britain’s exports would not be a
subject to border’s checks
Political
5
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
Elections
• Presidential in
• Czech Republic
• Cyprus
• Finland
• Ireland
• Russia
• General/ Parliatmentary in
• Hungary
• Italy
• Latvia
• Slovenia
• Sweden
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Drivers of the European Truck market
Exports to the UK
6
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
• The relative importance of the UK market for
exports varies across the EU
• Currently, around 44% of UK exports of goods
and services go to the EU
• Future trade impact will depend on UK/EU
negotiations
Share of merchandise exports to the UK (%)
Source: IHS Markit
Western Europe – Merchandise Export Growth (%)
Source: IHS Markit
15,0
10,28,3
7,2 7,1 7,0 6,5 6,1 5,3 4,83,6
0
5
10
15
20
IRL NLD BEL FRA SPA DEU POL PRT ITA CZE GRC
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Drivers of the European Truck market
• Freight transport in Europe
Freight Transport in Europe
7
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
EU Freight Land Transport (tkm)
Source: EU Commission
EU Land Transport
Source: IHS Markit
Russian Freight Land Transport (tkm)
Source: Invest Russia
Russia Land Transport
Source: IHS Markit
Inland Waterway; 6,3%
Oil Pipeline; 4,7%
Road; 71,9%
Rail; 17,1%
-6,0%
-3,0%
0,0%
3,0%
6,0%
-80,0
-40,0
0,0
40,0
80,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Performance ($real) %cha. y/y
Inland Waterway; 3,2%
Air; 0,2%
Road; 9,9%
Rail; 86,8%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
-800,0
-400,0
0,0
400,0
800,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Performance ($real) %cha. y/y
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Most TOP Markets remain stable in 2018, Russia’s and Turkey’s growth carry
the European demand to the 500,000 mark in 2019
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
8
European Truck Sales >6t
Source: IHS Markit
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
France Germany Italy Poland Russia Spain Turkey UnitedKingdom
2017 2018 2019 2020
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Europe
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Model Level Sales Forecast – New Truck Product Launches ahead and after
Euro VI Introduction Reached nearly 50% of Western European Market
• IHS Markit tracks introductions of major new
systems in trucks, including cabs and frames,
as well as engines
• Changes aimed at meetings needs of drivers
and fleets
• New Model Level Sales will forecast
introduction of new model generations
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
9
New vehicles, percent total (>= model year 2011)
Source: IHS Markit
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
old new
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Production Outlook
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
10
Christiane Stein, Principal Research Analyst, +49 89 895 269 035, [email protected]
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Output Follows Demand – Chinese Downturn Decreases Output,
World Production Remains above 3 Million Trucks
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
11
World Truck Production >6t
Source: IHS Markit
© 2018 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. Provided “as is”, without any warranty. This map is not to be reproduced or disseminated and is not to be used nor cited as evidence in connection with any territorial claim. IHS Markit is impartial and not an authority on international boundaries
which might be subject to unresolved claims by multiple jurisdictions.
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
AsiaChina India Rest
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
EuropeWE CE EE
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
AmericasNA SA
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
17 18 19 20
Mill
ion
s
World
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Worldwide Bus Output is increasing 1-2% annually.
Compared to Trucks the Production has only 12-14% of the Size.
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
12
World Bus Production >6t
Source: IHS Markit
© 2018 IHS Markit. All rights reserved. Provided “as is”, without any warranty. This map is not to be reproduced or disseminated and is not to be used nor cited as evidence in connection with any territorial claim. IHS Markit is impartial and not an authority on international boundaries
which might be subject to unresolved claims by multiple jurisdictions.
0
100
200
300
17 18 19 20
Tho
usands
AsiaChina India Rest
0
20
40
60
80
17 18 19 20
Tho
usands
EuropeWE CE EE
0
20
40
60
80
100
17 18 19 20
Tho
usands
AmericasNA SA
0
100
200
300
400
500
17 18 19 20
Tho
usands
World
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
IHS Markit forecasts Western European Truck Production to Remain Stable in
2018, Majority of Suppliers Show Optimism
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
13
Forecast Q1/2018
Source: IHS Markit
Supplier Survey
Source: IHS Markit
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Significantly Optimistic (> +5%; > 480k)
Optimistic (> +3% to +5%; > 471k to 480k)
Somewhat Optimistic (> +0.5% to 3%; > 459k to471k)
Output remains stable (- 0.5% to 0.5%; 455k to459k)
Somewhat Pessimistic (> -0.5% to 3%; >443k to<455k)
Pessimistic (> -3% to -5%; > 434k to 443k)
Significantly Pessimistic (> -5%; < 434k)
Truck Production 2018 - Western Europe
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Turkish Truck Production Expected to Increase by less than 5% in 2018,
Output hike in 2020
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
14
Forecast Q1/2018
Source: IHS Markit
Supplier Survey
Source: IHS Markit
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Significantly optimistic (>10% y/y or >24,640 units)
Optimistic (+5-10% y/y)
Somewhat optimistic (+0-5% y/y)
Stable
Somewhat pessimistic (>-10% y/y or <20,160units)
Pessimistic (-5-10% y/y)
Significantly pessimistic (-0-5% y/y)
Truck Production 2018 - Turkey
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Russian Truck Production is back on a Growth Track as Economy and Truck
Demand are recovering
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
15
Forecast Q1/2018
Source: IHS Markit
Supplier Survey
Source: IHS Markit
0 1 2 3 4 5
Significantly optimistic (>10% y/y or >96,580 units)
Optimistic (+5-10% y/y)
Somewhat optimistic (+0-5% y/y)
Stable
Significantly pessimistic (-0-5% y/y)
Pessimistic (-5-10% y/y)
Somewhat pessimistic (>-10% y/y or <79,000units)
Truck Production 2018 - Russia
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Suppliers are influenced mainly by demand volatility, customer forecast
accuracy and cost and availability of raw materials
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
16
Business Influences
Source: IHS Markit
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Brexit OE customerforecastaccuracy
Demandvolatility
Lack of pricingpower
Production(tool) Capacity
Regulatory &Legal issues
Direct &indirect labor
concerns
Cost of rawmaterials
Availability ofraw materials
Insignificant Somewhat significant Highly significant
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Technology Outlook
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
17
Christiane Stein, Principal Research Analyst, +49 89 895 269 035, [email protected]
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Most of the Major MHCV markets will have switched to Euro VI by the
beginning of the next decade
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
18
Emission Standards 2005-2025
Source: IHS Markit
Country/ Region 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
China
India
Indonesia Euro V
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
South Korea
Thailand
Russia
Turkey
Europe (WE/CE)
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Mexico
United States
USA/Canada (CO2)
Argentina Euro IV
Brazil
Euro VIChina V=EuroV
Euro V
Euro V
GHG 2GHG 1
EPA 2004 = Euro IVEPA 2007 = Euro V
Euro IV
Euro V
Euro III
Euro V Euro VIEuro II
Euro VI
Euro IV/ V
Euro VI CO2 Legislation
EPA 2010 = Euro VI
Euro III
Euro VI
Euro I Euro IV Euro V Euro VI
Euro I Euro II Euro III
post JP09 = Euro VIJP09 = Euro V
China IV=Euro IV
Euro III
China II = Euro II
Euro I
China III = Euro III
Euro II Euro III
Euro II
Euro III Euro IV
Euro III
Euro IV
Euro I (assumed) Euro II
Euro I (not enforced) RSA CF1 = Euro II RSA CF2 = Euro IV
Euro V Euro VI
Euro V
Euro IV
Euro IV
Euro IV Euro VI
Euro I Euro II Euro IV
JP05 = Euro V
Euro II
Euro III Euro VI
Euro II
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Alternative Drivelines are Significantly Higher in the Bus Market –
Electric Trucks are expected to penetrate the market in the next decade
World
19
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Truck
DIESEL E100 GAS GAS CNG LNG LPG ELECTRICITY Hydrogen
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Bus
DIESEL DIESEL LNG GAS GAS CNG LNG LPG ELECTRICITY Hydrogen
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Europe – Powertrain Split
Diesel continues to be the primary fuel for Heavy-duty vehicles
MHCV Outlook / February 2018Powertrain split based upon industry estimates & PT production
2020
99.1% 0.2%
0.6% <0.1%
DIESELELECTRIFIED
HYBRID/PLUG-IN
NATURAL GAS GASOLINE
52%
MHCV fuel types
14%
34% 0%
DIESELELECTRIFIED
HYBRID/PLUG-IN
NATURAL GASGASOLINE
Current 2040
Diesel
Gasoline
Hybrid
Natural Gas (CNG/LNG)
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Low Emission Zone Access regulation Charging scheme
Athens
Barcelona
Berlin
Bratislava
Copenhagen
Frankfurt
Glasgow
Helsinki
London
Lyon
Madrid
Milan
Munich
Oslo
Paris
Prague
Rome
Stockholm
Stuttgart
Turin
Vienna
Bologna
Bucharest
Budapest
Dublin
London
Madrid
Milan
Munich
Paris
Poznan
Prague
Riga
Rome
Rotterdam
Sofia
Toulouse
Warsaw
Wroclaw
Bergen
Durham
Gothenburg
Kristiansand
London
Milan
Oslo
Palermo
Stockholm
Trondheim
Valetta
European Cities use different options to limit trafic and increase air quality
for their inhabitants – several make use of more than one
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
21
Source: http://urbanaccessregulations.eu/
• Transport causes 25% of green-house gas emissions
• Heavy-duty vehicles account for 5%
• CO2 Legislation to become effective for 2020+
CO2
• Entrance limits or additional charge for vehicles with higher emissions
Low emission zones (LEZ)
• Congestion charges are already in place in many Cities in Europe –among them Stockholm & London
Congestion charges
Urban Access Regulations
Safer Lorries• Many European cities have already
begun to roll out local policies to
support the introduction of safer lorries
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous Driving, Connectivity, Electricity –
Where we are and where we go?
Autonomous Driving
• Expected to swiftly follow the US
example (2022/2023), and under
going fleet tests in other regions.
• It is imperative to create enabling
regulations
• Application: long-haul
(platooning), short-haul (closed
off areas, garbage collection)
Connectivity
• V2V and V2Infrastructure
communication
• Radically changes the logistic
system and transport process:
efficient use of vehicles,
manpower and infrastructure
• Enables platooning and other
autonomous driving options
Electricity
• Battery EV fits to urban and
short haul usage:
• Zero Emission
• Zero Noise
• Easy system integration to
autonomous drive
• FuelCell commercial vehicles on
the verge
• Need to develop Infrastructure
and energy management
22
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Coming soon: our new Commercial Vehicle Trend Study!
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
23
Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Key takeaways
MHCV Outlook / February 2018
24
• Mixed outlook in 2018: vanishing special effects in China shrink the global truck demand – Eastern
Europe & North America on the rise, Western European truck sales expected to face cyclical
downturn in 2018-2020
• Output follows demand: Chinese downturn decreases output, world production remains above 3
million trucks, Western European output expected to be stable in 2018, gaining from 2019
• Worldwide bus output is increasing 1-2% annually. Compared to trucks only 12-14% of the size.
• Most of the major MHCV markets will have switched to Euro VI by the beginning of the next
decade, Europe will introduce CO2 legislation
• Alternative drivelines are significantly higher in the bus market – electric trucks are expected to
penetrate the market in the next decade
• The power of autonomous driving, connectivity and electricity lies in the combination of the three
technologies
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MHCV Outlook / February 2018