european logistics market · property report q4 2017. real estate for a changing world. 2. property...

11
RESEARCH EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET Property Report Q4 2017 Real Estate for a changing world

Upload: others

Post on 28-May-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

R E S E A R C H

EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKETProperty Report Q4 2017

Real Estatefor a changing

world

Page 2: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

2

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe leading logistics occupier markets have all now accomplished historic volumes of transactions. First the UK and Germany in 2016. In 2017, France, the Netherlands and Spain concluded the year with all-time highs stimulated by a favourable economic backdrop plus strong demand from e-commerce and the retail sector.

The investment market achieved new record levels outperforming offices and retail despite an overall lack of high grade assets. Market drivers include GDP growth, new entrants such as Asian investors, large corporate deals and further yield compression.

Logistics take-up for warehouses over 5,000 sqm: +9% in 2017 vs 2016

• Retail and e-commerce contributed to market growth in most countries.

• Supply remained tight and new development barely keeps up with demand.

• Rents increased by 2 % in 2017.

Industrial and logistics investment: €40 billion, +62% in 2017 vs 2016

• Historic industrial and logistics investment volumes boosted by corporate deals and portfolio transfers.

• Investor interest for logistics is not fading.• Prime yields are at their lowest level and further compression

can still be anticipated in some countries reflecting the lack of investment products.

Vincent Robion Head of Research - Logistics Europe

February 2018

CONTACTS

EUROPEAN LOGISTICS COVERAGE

Logan SMITH Head of Logistics, Senior Director [email protected]

Anita SIMAZA Director European Logistics [email protected]

Oliver WISSEL Director European LogisticsLettings & [email protected]

RESEARCH

Vincent RobionHead of Research – Logistics Europe [email protected]

Page 3: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

3

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1918

Manufacturing (year-on-year change)

%

Source: Oxford Economics, BNP Paribas

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

UKSpain Netherlands Poland

Germany France

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 15 16 18(f)

19(f)

171413

GDP and employment growth in Europe%

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

GDP

Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden Switzerland, UKSource: Oxford Economics, BNP Paribas

Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19(f)

18(f)

Retail sales (year-on-year change)

%

Source: Oxford Economics, BNP Paribas

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

UKSpain Netherlands Poland

Germany France

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18(f)

19(f)

Consumer spending (year-on-year change)

%

Source: Oxford Economics, BNP Paribas

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

UKSpain Netherlands Poland

Germany France

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

The global economic recovery is in full swing and is expected to gain significant momentum in 2018. BNP Paribas forecasts that the world economy will increase by 3.7% in 2018 and this will be broad-based with growth in the advanced economies reaching 3.2%. At the Eurozone level, economic growth is forecast to be 2.4% in 2018 having posted at 2.7% in 2017. The UK, after a period of strong performance, is beginning to slow and likely to see growth of 1.5% in 2018. This however will pick up in 2019.

What is different in this recovery is that growth is more universal and faster across European nations. The fastest growth can be found in the CEE with Romania posting growth of 7% in 2017. Poland is expected to increase by 3.5% in 2018 and 2.7/5 in 2019. Despite the smaller economies growing strongly, acceleration in the big countries such as Germany (2.6%) and the Netherlands (2.4%) is really important for the overall health of the European economy.

Recent gyrations in the equity markets are a foretaste of one of the issues that is likely to appear over 2018: volatility. With restored growth comes the prospect of high inflation, followed by normalisation of monetary policy. We believe that central banks will begin to raise policy rate in 2018.

The US is likely to raise rates, two or three times, further this year, in combination with reduction in its balance sheet. However the hike is expected to be at a slower pace. Moreover, European long term rates are likely to remain under upward pressure as they are pulled up by US interest rate. We envisage interest rates on German 10yr bund, the benchmark for European governments, to be above 1% by the end of the year.

Domestic demand is playing an important role in the current European growth story, and remains a key driver of the on-going economic expansion in most countries. BNP Paribas expects consumption to grow at around 2% over the next few years. A development that is positive for the logistics sector in European real estate.

Retail sales growth has been heavily correlated with the economy. The expansion in e-commerce as a channel for retail sales yields further channels to link the fortunes of the logistics market to the national economies. According to e-commerce Europe, on-line sales in Europe are likely to reach 10% growth in 2018, providing further boost to the logistics sector.

Manufacturing, the historic client base of logistics, remains important too. Industrial output in the European Union increased steadily over 2018 and currently stands at 4.8% pa as at December 2017.

THE WHOLE EUROPEAN ECONOMY IS MOVING FORWARD

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

Page 4: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

4

000 sqm

Take-up - Warehouses over 5,000 sqmQ4 2016 Q4 2017

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Birm

ingh

am

Grea

ter P

aris

Barc

elon

a

Lond

on &

Sou

th E

ast

Fran

kfur

t

Ham

burg

Lyon

Leed

s

Man

ches

ter

Lille

Bris

tol

Mad

rid

Berl

in

Leip

zig

Düss

eldo

rf

Mun

ich

Colo

gne

Mar

seill

e

New

cast

le

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

Take-up for warehouses over 5,000 sqm recorded another significant increase of 9 % in 2017 in the 21 cities regularly monitored by BNP Paribas Real Estate. The volume of transactions increased for the third year in a row, contributing to a 50% growth over the past five years. This can be attributed to several market drivers. First, the logistics market is following the upturn of European economies, further pulled by world economies in 2017. GDP growth has been revised upwards in the major European economies during the year, supported by domestic demand, manufacturing output and international trade. Another strong market driver is the sustained growth in internet sales, more specifically e-commerce activities, boosting demand for large warehouses. This sector is expected to further increase by at least 10 % in 2018.

Overall, the European logistics market has been thriving even though supply remained scarce in most places across Europe. Take-up doubled in Paris to reach a historic level nearing the 2 million sqm threshold. It also doubled in Madrid and in Düsseldorf and reached record volumes in the Dutch market of Breda and Venlo during 2017. Following an outstanding pace of activity in 2016, demand for logistics weakened but remained strong in 2017.

Supply is still barely keeping pace with demand, especially for large units. Speculative projects remain limited and are not sufficient to offset the demand for new warehouse space. As a result, demand for owner-occupier deals is still high in most countries and the favourable financing conditions and low interest rates are still encouraging occupiers to consider this alternative solution.

After two years of general stability rents evolved slightly, growing by 2 % in Europe during 2017. Over the past five years, prime headline rents rose by 7 % in the main European markets whilst between 2012 and 2017 inflation increased by just 3.8 %.

Down by just 9 %, Germany recorded its second highest volume of transactions with 5.5 million sqm of transactions in 2017. This downward trend is mostly reflecting the variation of large deals from one year to another rather than a loss in demand. Indeed, the market remained dynamic in all industrial sectors and in all market segments.

New supply is scarce and users still turn to build-to-suit solutions. Owner-occupier solutions accounted for more than 40% of take-up in 2017. Prime rents have stabilized year-on-year in most markets.

In France the volume of transactions reached yet another record year over 4 million sqm. The French logistics market was boosted by a stronger economic environment and a greater visibility since the presidential elections. The market was supported by demand from large distributors in the food industry and e-commerce. Turnkey deals accounted for nearly 2 million m² in 2017. Grade A supply stabilized with few developments underway, whilst prime rents range from €53-56 in Greater Paris to €42-47 in the regions.

The UK market remained dynamic with 2.8 million sqm taken up in 2017. Demand for logistics space remained relatively healthy during 2017, whilst it was down from the extraordinary levels seen in 2016. This was in line with the volumes recorded in 2014 and 2015. Whilst some occupiers are still struggling to find suitable available space, some others seem to have rationalised their expansionary plans due to the recent political and economic uncertainties. Retailers and third-party logistics providers accounted for the largest share of the market.

In the Netherlands, take-up doubled in one year to reach a historic volume of 2.2 million sqm in 2017. The market was supported by a strong economy with 3.0 % GDP growth in 2017 and a significant increase in exports. The market was particularly concentrated in the South Netherlands, in the regions of Breda and Venlo.

In Spain, take-up rose by 6 % in the three main markets to reach over 1.3 million sqm in 2017. This represents the highest volume ever recorded in Spain. Take-up doubled in Madrid over last year boosted by strong domestic demand and large transactions including a turnkey deal for 120,000 sqm in Marchamalo.

In the Czech Republic and Poland, e-commerce and distribution for retailers remain the principal market driver. Low vacancy rates in Poland (5.1 %) and the Czech Republic (4.2 %) have been a motivator for new development schemes and build-to-suit.

TAKE-UP: THRIVING ACTIVITY IN 2017 WITH HISTORIC VOLUMES

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

Page 5: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

%

Net prime rents - warehouses over 5,000 sqmPrime rentHigh point (Since 2010) Secondary rent

Lond

on &

Sou

th E

ast

Oslo

Hels

inki

Stoc

khol

m

Dubl

in

Mun

ich

Birm

ingh

am

Fran

kfur

tVi

enna

Barc

elon

a

Man

ches

ter

Mad

rid

Ham

burg

Buch

ares

t

Düss

eldo

rf

Amst

erda

mRo

tter

dam

Colo

gne

War

saw

Talli

nn

Berl

in

Grea

ter P

aris

Leip

zig

Rom

e

Viln

ius

Mila

n

Prag

ue

Riga

63

4876

6385

46

47

6755

48

45

60

74

97

65

76

56

68

120

38

45

67

5346

42

38

194

47

70

70

46

51

57

82

43

67

133

38

53

50

53

62

67

87

54

58

47

51

72

53

66

54

72

43

Edinburgh

Manchester

Birmingham

Lille

Paris

Lyon

Marseille

BarcelonaMadrid

Lisbon

Milan

Warsaw

Berlin

Hamburg

Cologne

Düsseldorf

FrankfurtMunich

EdinburghGlasgow

Bristol

Newcastle

AmsterdamAmsterdam

Glasgow

Manchester

Birmingham

LondonHeathrowLondon

HeathrowBristol

Newcastle

Lille

GreaterParis

Lyon

Marseille Rome

BarcelonaMadrid

Lisbon

Milan

Warsaw

KatowiceKatowiceLodz

Poznan

Berlin

Hamburg

RotterdamRotterdam

Cologne

Düsseldorf

Frankfurt

Leipzig

Munich

Helsinki

Stockholm

Vienna

Tallinn

Vilnius

Riga

Bordeaux

ToulouseToulouse

Nantes

Budapest

LeedsLeeds

Prague

Le HavreLe Havre

Bucharest

AthensAthens

BrusselsBrussels BratislavaBratislavaBratislava

Oslo

CopenhagenCopenhagen

GothenburgGothenburg

WroclawWroclaw

Moscow

St Petersburg

DublinDublin

BelgradeBelgrade

Valencia

250 km0 125

©BN

PPR

E D

&A 2

018

Rents in €/sqm/year

≥ 90

70 - 89

50 - 69

<50

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

PRIME RENTS IN Q4 2017 – WAREHOUSES OVER 5,000 SQM

Page 6: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

6

United Kingdom

German

yFra

nce

Netherl

ands

Sweden

Industrial* investment volume

€ bn

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

* Industrial premises and warehouses

Q4 2017 2010-2017 average

20082007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 20172013

Industrial* investment volumeWestern Europe

€ bn

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

*Industrial premises and warehouses

Average 2007-2017Industrial & logistics investment

BelgiumSpain

Finlan

d

NorwayIta

lyIre

land

Austria

Portuga

l

Industrial investment

€ bn

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

Q4 2017 2010-2017 average

Commercial real estate investment* in 2017(€ million)

Of�ces

Retail

Industrial

Hotels

Other

44%

15%

7%

19%

15%

* Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands, UK

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

The sale of major portfolios and large corporate deals generated outstanding volumes of investment over €40bn during 2017. Indeed, the investment market for industrial and logistics premises increased by 62 % in 2017, skewed by the sale of a single deal for more than €12bn euros. This impacted on most European countries with record volumes achieved in the major markets. Financial liquidity remains abundant and, besides pure players, the logistics market is attracting investors who continue to consider logistics assets to extend their portfolio offer. During the last 18 months, new entrants such as Asian investors have shown a great interest to the logistics market. Logistics prime yields reached their lowest level in most countries but are still well above the 10-year government bonds which bottomed out to historic lows in 2016. Logistics prime yields remain attractive compared to other assets. The UK market increased sharply with €12.2 bn invested in 2017, up 80 % on 2016, despite the scarcity of products and a context of political and economic uncertainties. The market was greatly impacted by the sale of logistics platforms and large portfolios. Logistics prime rents remained fairly stable during the year whilst prime yields stabilised in the main hubs to 4.5 % in London and the South East and 4.75 % in Birmingham.In Germany, industrial and logistics investment nearly doubled the latest record set in 2015 to reach €9.2 bn in 2017. Portfolio sales accounted for just over two thirds of total investment with some major transactions involving pan-European platforms including the sale of Blackstone’s logistics platform Logicor and the acquisition

of Geneba Properties by Frasers Centrepoint (FCL) of Singapore. After a strong compression that started in 2015, yields have further decreased to 4.5 % in the main markets.In France, the investment market amounted €4.4 bn in 2017 boosted by corporate deals accounting for €2 bn. It is worth noting that if we exclude corporate deals, investment for distribution warehouses still increased by 16 %, illustrating the return of business confidence following the presidential elections. The prime yield decreased below 5 % for the first time in France to 4.9 %.In the Netherlands, industrial and logistics investment doubled to €2.8 bn in 2017, representing 17% of total commercial real estate investment. The market was supported by large pan-European portfolio deals (Logicor, Grammercy, Geneba). The scarcity of products in the Dutch market is exerting a downward pressure on yields. The prime yield declined to 5.35 % in Amsterdam and 5.0 % in Venlo. In Spain, investment exceeded €1 bn, up 12 % on 2106. The market continued to be thriving, following the massive rebound in 2015 and 2016. Strong investor demand continued to push yields down to 5.9 % in Madrid and 5.85 % in Barcelona.In Poland, investment activity for industrial and logistics went up by more than 40 % to €1.2 bn and the prime yield stabilised at 5.5 % in Warsaw. In the Czech Republic, after a strong activity in 2015 and 2016 supported by portfolio transfers, industrial and logistics investment naturally adjusted down to €450 million in 2017.

EUROPEAN INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS INVESTMENT REACHED NEW RECORD LEVELS

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

Page 7: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

7

3

5

7

9

11

%

Net prime yields - warehouses over 5,000 m²Q4 2016Q4 2017

Lond

on &

SE

Birm

ingh

am

Dubl

in

Brat

isla

va

Buda

pest

Man

ches

ter

Düss

eldo

rf

Fran

kfur

t

Berl

in

Ham

burg

Lille

Lyon

Grea

ter P

aris

Stoc

khol

m

Rott

erda

m

War

saw

Leed

s

Barc

elon

a

Mad

rid

Prag

ue

Range since 2007

5.35

11

5.85

4.54.65

4.9

7

5.25

6.25

8.59.75

8

4.5

6.5

5.5

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.5

6

6

7.5

5.75

4.9

4.9

6.75 6.75

7

4.5

4.9

5.9

5

4.9

5.75

4.5

7

5.85

5

5.5

5.5

6

8

6.4

5.4

6

5.48

4.9

5.8

8

5.5

5.5

LondonHeathrow

Edinburgh

DublinManchester

Birmingham

Lille

Paris

Lyon

Madrid

Lisbon

Milan

Warsaw

Berlin

Hamburg

Amsterdam

Cologne

Düsseldorf

FrankfurtMunich

Edinburgh

Newcastle

Glasgow

Bristol

Newcastle

DublinManchester

Glasgow

Birmingham

Lille

GreaterParis

Lyon

MarseilleMarseille Rome

BarcelonaBarcelona

Madrid

LisbonValencia

Milan

BucharestBelgradeBelgrade

Warsaw

Berlin

Leipzig

Hamburg

Amsterdam

Cologne

Düsseldorf

FrankfurtMunich

RotterdamRotterdam

Bristol

Helsinki

StockholmOslo

ViennaVienna

Tallinn

Vilnius

Riga

KatowiceKatowice

WroclawWroclaw

Lodz

Poznan

GothenburgGothenburg

LondonHeathrow

Toulouse

NantesNantes

Budapest

Bordeaux

LeedsLeeds

Le HavreLe Havre BrusselsBrussels BratislavaBratislavaBratislava

Prague

CopenhagenCopenhagen

AthensAthens

250 km0 125

©BN

PPR

E D

&A 2

018

Yields

≤ 5%

6% - 7%

7% - 8%

>8%

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

NET PRIME YIELDS IN Q4 2017 – WAREHOUSES OVER 5,000 SQM

Page 8: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

8

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

OCCUPIER LOGISTICS MARKET - WAREHOUSES OVER 5,000 SQM

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET IN EUROPE

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

City

Take-up (000 m²) Rents (€/sqm/year) Prime

2017 2016 Variation y-o-y (%) Q4 2017 Q4 2016

Greater Paris 1,922 976 97% 56 55

Birmingham 1,099 1,303 -16% 85 82

Madrid 828 342 142% 70 70

London & South East 630 826 -24% 194 194

Frankfurt 555 493 13% 76 76

Venlo-Venray-Eindhoven* 504 298 69% 45 48

Breda-Moerdijk-Roosendaal* 443 178 149% 48 50

Lyon 432 483 -11% 47 45

Lille 427 393 9% 46 46

Barcelona 381 521 -27% 76 72

Düsseldorf 373 193 93% 65 65

Manchester 369 423 -13% 70 70

Prague 360 368 -2% 53 50

Bristol 337 437 -23% 67 67

Berlin 292 242 21% 63 59

Marseille 273 149 83% 46 44

Hamburg 266 466 -43% 68 68

Munich 192 191 1% 82 81

Cologne 171 156 10% 60 60

Newcastle 89 44 101% 67 67Leipzig 74 208 -64% 53 53Leeds 71 409 -83% 67 67Rotterdam* 66 134 -51% 62 60Amsterdam* 24 72 -67% 63 63*Take-up estimates

Country

Commercial real estate investment (€ million) Industrial investment (€ million) rolling year

2017 2016 Variation y-o-y (%) 2017 2016 Variation

y-o-y (%)

United Kingdom 72,083 58,273 24% 12,221 6,855 78%

Germany 58,219 52,583 11% 9,179 4,436 107%

France 26,433 31,922 -17% 4,394 2,997 47%

Netherlands 16,797 10,335 63% 2,791 1,412 98%

Italy 11,071 8,964 24% 1,262 720 75%

Spain 10,727 10,328 4% 1,057 993 6%

Sweden 10,271 13,684 -25% 1,902 1,490 28%

Finland 9,160 4,507 103% 1,520 500 204%

Norway 8,770 7,801 12% 1,116 1,446 -23%

Poland 5,141 4,616 11% 1,167 821 42%

Austria 4,800 2,750 75% 105 75 40%

Czech Republic 3,567 3,661 -3% 386 882 -56%

Belgium 3,183 3,349 -5% 327 157 109%

Ireland 2,170 4,238 -49% 145 99 46%

Portugal 1,997 1,611 24% 325 72 355%

Page 9: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

9

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

NET PRIME YIELDS - WAREHOUSES OVER 5,000 SQM

BNP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e -

Rese

arch

- F

ebru

ary

2018

CityNet prime yields

Q4 2017 Q4 2016 Variationy-o-y (%)

Amsterdam 5.35% 5.60% -25

Athens 11.00% 11.50% -50

Barcelona 5.85% 6.00% -15

Belgrade 9.75% 10.25% -50

Berlin 4.50% 5.20% -70

Birmingham 4.65% 4.70% -5

Bordeaux 4.90% 7.00% -210

Bratislava 7.00% 7.25% -25

Bristol 5.25% 5.15% 10

Brussels 6.25% 6.50% -25

Bucharest 8.50% 8.75% -25

Budapest 8.00% 8.50% -50

Cologne 4.50% 5.10% -60

Copenhagen 6.50% 6.50% 0

Dublin 5.50% 6.00% -50

Düsseldorf 4.50% 5.10% -60

Frankfurt 4.50% 5.10% -60

Greater Paris 4.90% 5.50% -60

Hamburg 4.50% 5.10% -60

Helsinki 6.00% 6.60% -60

Katowice 6.00% 6.00% 0

Leeds 5.75% 5.75% 0

Leipzig 4.90% 5.70% -80

Lille 4.90% 5.60% -70

Lisbon 6.75% 7.00% -25

Lodz 7.00% 7.00% 0

London & South East 4.50% 4.75% -25

Lyon 4.90% 5.60% -70

Madrid 5.90% 6.10% -20

Manchester 5.00% 4.90% 10

Marseille 4.90% 5.60% -70

Milan 5.75% 6.50% -75

Munich 4.50% 5.05% -55

Newcastle 5.85% 5.85% 0

Oslo 5.00% 5.50% -50

Poznan 5.50% 5.50% 0

Prague 6.00% 6.00% 0

Riga 8.00% 8.50% -50

Rome 6.40% 6.50% -10

Rotterdam 5.40% 5.60% -20

Stockholm 5.40% 5.50% -10

Tallinn 8.00% 8.25% -25

Venlo-Venray-Eindhoven 5.00% 5.50% -50

Vienna 5.80% 6.20% -40

Vilnius 8.00% 8.50% -50

Warsaw 5.50% 5.50% 50

Page 10: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

10

GLOSSARY

Design & Build: construction of a bespoke building for an occupier.• Owner-occupier development: construction of a building for an occupier

who has signed a bill of sale on a property still to be built. • Lease turnkey: construction of a building for an occupier who has signed a

lease on a property still to be built.

Distributive trade: it is measuring the volume of material goods to consumers distributed through retailing and wholesale trade.

Light industrial buildings: individual buildings intended for production or small-scale distribution and able to accommodate all the company departments under one roof.

Logistics: the process of planning, implementing, and controlling procedures for the efficient and effective transportation and storage of goods, and related information from the point of origin to the point of consumption. Includes inbound, outbound, internal, and external movements.

New supply: all building restructuring that adds to the existing stock. These are analysed according to progress. • Completed new supply: buildings on which construction work is finished. • Under construction: buildings on which construction has effectively begun.

Prior demolition work is not taken into account. • Planning permission granted: authorisation to build obtained, generally

booked after settlement of third party claims. • Planning permission submitted: planning permission requested, being

processed. • Projects: identified intention of a building operation for which no request

has been filed.

Portfolio: group of several assets located in different places.

Rent: common annual headline rent, expressed per square metre per year, and excluding taxes and charges. Prime rent: represents the top open-market rent at the survey date for a real estate unit: • Over 5,000 m² suitable for logistics uses• Of the highest quality and specification • In the best location in a market Secondary rent: represents a market rent at the survey date for a real estate unit: • Over 5,000 m² suitable for logistics uses • Of good quality and specification • In a good location in a market

Second hand premises: premises that have been previously occupied by an occupier or vacant for more than five years.

Speculative / Non speculative operation: • Speculative: construction launched without prior rental or sale to the

occupier. • Non-speculative: construction launched after partial or complete sale or

rental to an occupier.

Supply chain: all the elements in the process of supplying a product to a customer. The chain begins with the sourcing of raw materials and ends with the delivery of finished merchandise to the end-user. It embraces vendors, manufacturing facilities, logistics service providers, distribution centres, distributors, wholesalers, other intermediaries, etc.

Supply chain management: Encompasses the planning and management of all activities involved in sourcing and procurement, conversion, and all logistics management activities.

Transaction (Take-up): rental or sale to an occupier of a real estate asset, sealed by the signature of a lease or deed, including turnkey and owner-occupier operations. The transaction is only taken into account once any existing conditional clauses have been lifted. • Pre-let refers to take-up that was either in the planning or construction

stage • All deals (including pre-lets) are recorded in the period in which they are

signed • Contract renewals are not included • Sales and leasebacks are not included as there had been no change in

occupation

Vacant Space: all completed buildings actively seeking rental or sale to occupiers.

Warehouses: buildings intended for storage, distribution or packaging.

Yield: • Net initial yield: ratio between net income (excl. operating costs) and the

acquisition price including all acquisition costs. • Prime yield: net lowest yield obtained for the acquisition of a unit:

- of standard size, - of the highest quality and specification, - in the best location in each market.

BNP Paribas Real Estate Disclaimer clause

BNP Paribas Real Estate cannot be held responsible if, despite its best efforts, the information contained in the present report turns out to be inaccurate or incomplete. This report is released by BNP Paribas Real Estate and the information in it is dedicated to the exclusive use of its clients. The report and the information contained in it may not be copied or reproduced without prior permission from BNP Paribas Real Estate. Should you no longer wish to receive this report, or wish to modify the conditions of reception of this report, please send an e-mail to: [email protected]

Definitions from A to Z…

The numerical data used by BNP Paribas Real Estate for its statistics feature all the information at the group’s disposal when compiling them. These statistics may change according to new information brought to our knowledge that is often confidential to begin with.

PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - FEBRUARY 2018

Page 11: EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET · Property Report Q4 2017. Real Estate for a changing world. 2. PROPERTY REPORT - EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET ... positive for the logistics sector in European

Non contractual document - Research department – February 2017BNP Paribas Real Estate: Simplified joint stock company with capital of € 383.071.696 - 692 012 180 RCS Nanterre - Code NAF 7010 Z - CE identification number FR 666 920 121 80

Headquarters: 167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad - 92867 Issy Les Moulineaux Cedex - BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Banking Group

Real Estatefor a changing

world

6 BUSINESS LINESin Europe

A 360°vision

P R O P E R T Y D E V E L O P M E N T | T R A N S A C T I O N | C O N S U LT I N G | V A L U AT I O N | P R O P E R T Y M A N A G E M E N T | I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E M E N T

EUROPE

FRANCEHeadquarters 167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad92867 Issy-les-Moulineaux Tel.: +33 1 55 65 20 04

BELGIUM Avenue Louise 235 1000 Brussels Tel.: +32 2 290 59 59

CZECH REPUBLIC Pobřežni 620/3 186 00 Prague 8 Tel.: +420 224 835 000

GERMANYGoetheplatz 460311 FrankfurtTel.: +49 69 2 98 99 0

HUNGARY117-119 Vaci ut. A Building 1123 Budapest,Tel.: +36 1 487 5501

IRELAND20 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4Tel.: +353 1 66 11 233

ITALYPiazza Lina Bo Bardi, 3 20124 MilanoTél. : +39 02 58 33 141

JERSEY3 Floor, Dialogue House2 - 6 Anley StreetSt Helier, Jersey JE4 8RDTel.: +44 (0)1 534 629 001

LUXEMBOURGAxento BuildingAvenue J.F. Kennedy 441855 LuxembourgTel.: +352 34 94 84 Investment ManagementTel.: +352 26 26 06 06

NETHERLANDS Antonio Vivaldistraat 54 1083 HP Amsterdam Tel.: +31 20 305 97 20

POLANDAl. Jana Pawła II 25 Atrium Tower00-854 WarsawTel.: +48 22 653 44 00

ROMANIABanul AntonacheStreet n°40-44Bucharest 011665Tel.: +40 21 312 7000

SPAIN C/ Génova 17 28004 Madrid Tel.: +34 91 454 96 00

UNITED KINGDOM 5 Aldermanbury Square London EC2V 7BP Tel.: +44 20 7338 4000

MIDDLE EAST / ASIADUBAIEmaar SquareBuilding n° 1, 7th FloorP.O. Box 7233, DubaiTel.: +971 44 248 277

HONG KONG25 /F Three Exchange Square,8 Connaught Place, Central,Hong KongTel.: +852 2909 2806

ALGERIA

AUSTRIA

CYPRUS

DENMARK

ESTONIA

FINLAND

GREECE

HUNGARY **

IVORY COAST

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

MOROCCO

NORTHERN IRELAND

NORWAY

PORTUGAL

SERBIA

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

TUNISIA

USA

* January 2017** Coverage In Transaction, Valuation & Consulting

Main locations* Alliances*

www.realestate.bnpparibas.com@BNPPRE

Real Estatefor a changing

world

W

BUSINESS LINESin Europe6

A 360°vision

P R O P E R T Y D E V E L O P M E N T | T R A N S A C T I O N | I N V E S T M E N T M A N A G E M E N T | P R O P E R T Y M A N A G E M E N T | V A L U AT I O N | C O N S U LT I N G

EUROPE

FRANCEHeadquarters167, Quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad92867 Issy-les-MoulineauxTel.: +33 1 55 65 20 04

BELGIUMAvenue Louise 2351050 BrusselsTel.: +32 2 290 59 59

CZECH REPUBLICPobřežni 620/3186 00 Prague 8Tel.: +420 224 835 000

GERMANYGoetheplatz 460311 FrankfurtTel.: +49 69 2 98 99 0

HUNGARY117-119 Vaci ut.A Building1123 Budapest,Tel.: +36 1 487 5501

IRELAND20 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4Tel.: +353 1 66 11 233

ITALYPiazza Lina Bo Bardi, 3 20124 MilanoTel.: +39 02 58 33 141

LUXEMBOURGAxento BuildingAvenue J.F. Kennedy 441855 LuxembourgTel.: +352 34 94 84Investment ManagementTel.: +352 26 26 06 06

NETHERLANDSAntonio Vivaldistraat 541083 HP AmsterdamTel.: +31 20 305 97 20

POLANDAl. Jana Pawła II 25Atrium Tower00-854 WarsawTel.: +48 22 653 44 00

ROMANIABanul AntonacheStreet n°40-44Bucharest 011665Tel.: +40 21 312 7000

SPAINC/ Emilio Vargas, 428043 MadridTel.: +34 91 454 96 00

UNITED KINGDOM5 Aldermanbury SquareLondon EC2V 7BPTel.: +44 20 7338 4000

MIDDLE EAST / ASIADUBAIEmaar SquareBuilding n° 1, 7th FloorP.O. Box 7233, DubaiTel.: +971 44 248 277

HONG KONG25 /F Three Exchange Square,8 Connaught Place, Central,Hong KongTel.: +852 2909 2806

ALGERIA

AUSTRIA

CYPRUS

DENMARK

ESTONIA

FINLAND

GREECE

HUNGARY **

IVORY COAST

JERSEY

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

MOROCCO

NORTHERN IRELAND

NORWAY

PORTUGAL

SERBIA

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

TUNISIA

USA

* November 2017** Coverage In Transaction, Valuation & Consulting

Main locations* Alliances*

www.realestate.bnpparibas.com@BNPPRE

ContactsEUROPEAN LOGISTICS COVERAGELogan SMITH Head of Logistics, Senior [email protected] Anita SIMAZA Director European Logistics, Investment [email protected]

Oliver WISSEL Director European Logistics,Letting & [email protected]

RESEARCH Vincent Robion Head of Research – Logistics [email protected]