european logistics in 2050ec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/... · % of truck...

EU Green Week

Transport and Spatial Planning in a Decarbonised World

European Logistics in 2050

Professor Alan McKinnonLogistics Research Centre

Heriot-Watt UniversityEDINBURGH, UK

25th June 2009

Forecast Growth of Freight Transport Activity by Region 2000-2050

Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development - Mobility 2030 report

CO2 emissions per tonne-km also increasing due to switch from rail and water-borne transport to trucks and planes

+150%

freight transport = 8% of energy-related CO2 emissions worldwide

Decoupling of Freight and GDP Trends?

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

freig

ht in

tens

ity in

dex

(200

3 =

100)

BelgiumCzech RepublicDenmarkGermanyIrelandSpainFranceHungaryNetherlandsFinlandUnited Kingdom

Ratio of road and rail tonne-km to GDP

Source: Eurostat

Retail distribution centre assembly plant supplier warehouse

Pre off-shoring Post off-shoring

Export of carbon-generating activities reducing EU’s ‘carbon footprint’

Embedded carbon in imported products

Weight of goods produced / consumed

Weight of goods transported by road

Road tonnes-lifted

Road tonne-kms

Total vehicle-kms

carbon intensity of energy

energy consumption

CO2

modal split

average handling factornumber of links

average length of haullength of links

average load on laden trips

average % empty running

Vehicle operation / fleet managemnet

energy efficiency

Similar analyses for other modes

timing of deliveries

aggregate key parameter - decarbonisation lever

Decarbonisation Framework for Logistics

supply chain structure

asset utilisation

energy efficiency

carbon content of energy

modal splitmodal split

warehousing / materials handling

space / equipment use

Decarbonisation Scenario for UK Road Freight in 2050

Total tonne-kms stable at 2007 level

Road share of freight tonne-kms reduced from 64% to 50%

% of truck kilometres run empty reduced from 27% to 17%

Average weight-based load factor up from 59% to 70%

40% improvement in energy efficiency

30% reduction in the carbon content of the energy

76% reduction in CO2 emissions

Combination of radical changes in key parameters required

Ignores complex inter-relationship between freight transport and other activities

Analysis by Maja Piecyk

External Influences

LOGISTICS2050

Economic trends• @ 2.5% average annual growth

• 190% income growth by 2050

• 1-2% GDP loss for 80% CO2 cut• services = large % of extra spend• higher energy costs

Energy mixswitch to low carbon energydecarbonises logistics BUT:

development of renewables, nuclear power and CCS will

be transport-intensive

Pattern of consumption• population growth• redistribution of population• changing demographics

Production systems• ‘near-shoring’ / relocalising• re-zoning of agriculture• clustering in low carbon regions• digitisation• 3D printing / ‘fabbing’

Climate change adaptation• flood protection• water supply constraints• realigning infrastructure• reconfiguring supply chains at risk• growth of humanitarian logistics

Negative feedbacks:Adaptation measures generate extra CO2

Decreasing Carbon Intensity of Electricity Generation

2006 20202010 2030 2050

gCO

2 pe

r kW

h

Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2008

Projection for the UK

Direct transmission to freight transport services:

Increase in % of electrified rail infrastructure (from 52% in EU in 2005)

Trolley trucks for inter-urban road network?

Electrification of Freight Transport

Batteries - improving storage capacity, life, performance, recharge times etc- development of new value chain for batteries

Hybrids Plug-ins

Hydrogen – heavy energy use in production, compression, liquification etc- expensive development of new hydrogen infrastructure

Energy Storage and Carrier Systems for Vehicles

‘Renewable energy is better distributed by electrons than by hydrogen’ (Bossel, 2004)

Biodiesel and biogas: for long haul trucks, non-electrified rail and inland waterways

Stabilisation Wedges

applied to freight transport operations

Adapted from Pacala and Socolow, 2004

Business-as-Usual trend

Car

bon

emis

sion

s

2050

electrification of transport with

low / zero carbon electricity

80%

improved fuel efficiencyincreased vehicle utilisationfreight modal shift

reduced transport intensity

Stabilisation Wedges

applied to freight transport operations

Adapted from Pacala and Socolow, 2004

Business-as-Usual trend

Car

bon

emis

sion

s

2050

electrification of transport low / zero carbon electricity

80%

improved fuel efficiency

increased vehicle utilisation

freight modal shift

reduced transport intensity

Supply Chain Decarbonisation Measures

Source: World Economic Forum / Accenture

Reduction in congestion13

Increased home delivery12

Near-shoring / relocalisation11

Reverse logistics / recycling10

Freight modal shift9

Training and communications8

Enable low carbon production7

Improved packaging design6

Increased energy efficiency of buildings5

Optimisation of logistics networks4

Localised sourcing of agricultural produce3

Slowing down product flow2

Clean vehicle technology1














Advances in Vehicle Technology

Teardrop Dolphin

Drag coefficient 0.35 (average car)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Engine

Aerody

namics

Tyres

Auxilia

ry eq

uipmen

tTrans

mission

Total

Ener

gy (k

Wh)

base level after target reduction

Source: US 21st Century Vehicle Partnership

In US – potential for 30% improvement in energy efficiency of new trucks

Less for European trucks given their higher average efficiency and different driving conditions

Shipping

3.3% of greenhouse gases today

Forecast growth of CO2 from ships(with 33-50% increase in fuel efficiency)

69% reduction in CO2 per container carried

relative to current average container ship

NYK Super-Eco Ship 2030

1bn

2008 2050

2.4bn3.6bn

Source: Committee on Climate Change 2008

15-30% in carbon constrained world of 2050

Forecast Growth of Air Freight Traffic

Revenue tonne-kms

Source: Boeing (2008)

Little or no potential for electrification

Limited switch from kerosene to biofuels

Air freight demand will be very sensitive to high carbon price / tax

Targets for CO2 Reduction Per Unit-km in Aviation

Source: ACARE

Air freight traffic

CO2 emissions per unit of traffic

net increase in CO2

emissions

+100%

-50% +50%

2020 projections

Decelerating Material Flow: JIT RIP?

Corporate CO2 Benefits from Just-in-Time DeliveryLower inventory levels:

less energy use in storage (heating, refrigeration, lighting etc.) less wastage of product

Less storage space required: less CO2 in construction, operation and maintenance

More efficient production process – lower energy wastage

Some suppliers have adapted better than others to the disciplines of just-in-time delivery

Relaxation of JIT

Switch to slower, lower carbon modes

Greater load consolidation

Lower speed limits

Need for low carbon consumers to be more patient

Benefits at consumer level?

Decarbonisation of Warehousing

‘eco-friendly mega shed’

• Can now design DC emitting 70% less CO 2 than typical 15 year-old DC in the UK (Prologis)

• development of the carbon neutral warehouse

• renewal of warehouse stock by 2050

Warehousing = 7-10% of logistics-related CO2

Ultra-low / zero carbon materials handling equipment by 2050

Product AProduct BProduct CProduct DDistribution

Nationally-based

Production

FocusedProduction

in pan-European

plants

Source: Cooper 1993

Reversal of Centralisation / Wider Sourcing Trends?

CO2 Trade-offs

warehousing CO2

transport CO2

total logistics CO2

CO2

Emissions

no.of warehousesMinimum

CO2 footprint

Inventory-related CO2

Need full Life Cycle Analysis - minimising freight transport need not minimise CO2

CO2 trade-offs in logistics

Comparative Carbon Auditing: Online and Conventional Book Retailing

SortationCentre

FulfilmentCentre

Distributors

Retailers

Printers

Local DepotSortationCentre

Conventional 669g CO2

SortationCentre

FulfilmentCentre

Online 426g CO2

170km

21g

21g17g

21g

192g

11g

99g

99g

192g

323g

23g

76g

Forward flow

Returns

shop

depot

home

van 181g

car 4340gbus 1270g

last link %of total

87%75%

70%

Assumptions: no return of unwanted product no trip-chaining by shoppersshopper buys one productno travel substitution for shopping trip successful first time delivery

Online’s CO2 advantage:Over car: 8.3 xOver bus: 2.8 x

Analysis by Dr. Julia Edwards

87%

Congested Transport Infrastructure

UK trunk roads relative to 2003 traffic conditions

Source: UK DfT

+37%+32%2025

+17%+17%2015

+1%+4%2010

Congestion (lost time / vehicle km)

Traffic volume (vehicle-kms)

year

+37%+32%2025

+17%+17%2015

+1%+4%2010

Congestion (lost time / vehicle km)

Traffic volume (vehicle-kms)

year

By 2050 European road network likely to have:comprehensive road pricing

slot allocation on trunk routesspeed control

‘Imagine if all those people acted to cut carbon in all they did…The supply chain, and gradually the economy as a whole, would begin to turn to green…We will begin to create a mass movement in green consumption.’

Sir Terry Leahy, Tesco CEO – Beijing 22nd August 2008

• Product level carbon auditing will be hugely expensive in time, effort and cost.

• Will require elaborate verification system

• Will induce very limited behavioural response

Voluntary Consumer Response

Imposition of personal carbon quotas

Personalised carbon trading

‘We cannot shop our way out of climate change’

Mark Lynas

Carbon Policy Agenda

• Voluntary consumer response

• Advice, exhortation and accreditation

• Cap and trade systems: extended to logistical activities

standardised and verifiable carbon measurement systems

‘getting the carbon price right’

• Imposition of carbon taxes

• Regulation: fuel / carbon economy standards for freight vehicles

tight carbon standards for logistics buildings

Combination of all actions required to decarbonise logistics

Visions of Britain 2050

Aberdeen London

Logistics Research Centre Heriot-Watt University

EDINBURGH UK

[email protected]

http://www.sml.hw.ac.uk/logistics

Contact details

www.greenlogistics.org

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.sml.hw.ac.uk/logistics

european logistics in 2050ec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/... · % of truck...

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