June 05 1

European Fertilizer Manufacturers Association

The EFMA Forecast

Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use

In the European Union

Methodology

June 05 2

Agenda :

The methodology for the EFMA forecast :

» The objectives.

» The principles.

Assumptions and scenario :

The National approach.

Forecast in NMS.

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 3

The objectives, principles and main stages

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 4

Objectives & principles.

Long term consumption forecast : Parallel and convergent with sales forecast (ISC) :

>> « Full convergence » by campaign n-2/n-3.

A « down-up » procedure, step by step :» Per country.» Crop acreage forecast, considering :

Global and European Agro-economic trends. Agricultural policies.

» Application rate forecast, considering : Evolution of technologies and agricultural practices. Environmental policies.

Short term to long term forecast :5 Campaigns : n-2/n-1, n-1/n, n/n+1, n+4/n+5, n+9/n+10

Based on « scenarios for the future » :» General trends, global and European.» National projections.

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 5

Various stages of the process : an expert approach

1/ Building a scenario : March» The « European context », prepared by the leader of the WG :

Agro-economic series & trends, world & Europe. Agricultural & Environmental policies.

2/ The EFMA scenario for a European agriculture. April>> The impact on fertilizer use, as foreseen by the forecast WG.

3/ Adapting the EFMA scenario to national level. MayThe impact of national situation and policies >> the « country report ».

4/ Making the national forecast. May- June

5/ Finalizing the European approach. JuneCritical approach of the forecast WG on each national scenario.

6/ Finalizing the European forecast : integration of all nationals. July

7/ Publishing and circulating the forecast. September

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 6

Assumptions and scenario

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 7

Building the EU scenario.

Back-ground information :» Quantitative.

Global : FAPRI, USDA & OECD EU : EU Commission and EEA.

» Qualitative. Contact with EU experts (Agri & Env).

Building the scenario :» Selecting relevant information for EFMA forecasters.» Proposing a draft scenario.» Discussing the scenario in plenum.

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 8

The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario

June 05 9

EU 15EU 15

The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 05 10

The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

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The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

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The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

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EU 25 CAP ReformEU 25 CAP Reform

E U prospectsE U prospects

The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 05 14

The EFMA forecast : Back ground information for the EU scenario :

June 05 15

Scenario for the forecast

( Example ) Impact of the CAP reform :

the impact assessment.

Full decoupling :

(single payment per ha, whatever crop is grown)

>> decrease of COPs area, crops with high application rate.

but limited : safety net of the intervention price.

Cross compliance :

(stricter implementation of environmental regulations)

>> slight decrease of N application rate to be expected.

June 05 16

The National approach :

developing the Expertise

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 17

Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources). Advisory service, consultants. Publications (scientific, “Farmers weekly”). Your control calculation. Watch “other nutrient sources” (National budget !) :

» farmyard manure, slurry

» sewage sludge» others» efficiency

The National approach.

Sources of information for Application rate :

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 18

Statistical yearbook. Newspapers, journals, etc… News agencies e.g. Agra Europe. Press releases :

- Ministry of Agriculture.- Growers associations.- Newspaper / journal for merchants.- International produce traders.- Plant breeders / -associations.

The National approach.

Sources of information for Crop area planted :

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 19

Implementation of EU-rules and –programmes. National programmes. National / regional limitations. points of discussion (conferences, media). Intensity of discussions (conferences, media). Direct contacts (ministry, n.g.o., administration).

The National approach.

Sources of information for Environmental policy :

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 20

Agriculture does not jump ! Watch out for crucial political decisions. Never believe just one source … Regular amendments of the set of data lead to

a stable and reliable base. You are the best one to judge and to decide ! Accept that you can’t be (always) right !

The National approach.

Some bits of experience :

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 21

Methodologies developed

for the New Member States

The EFMA forecast :

June 05 22

The New Member States

A transition period for the forecast exercise :

EU 15 and EEC 10 still separated.

Three methodologies used, all “desk research” :» Trends of consumption volumes (2001 & 2002):

>> Crossed with historical comparison (France).

» First crop based approach (2003): First developed for Poland : EU model for areas + “expert model” for rates. Extended to 4 countries : Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia.

» Second crop based approach (2004): Crop areas : EU model + extension to other crops. Rates : Crossing previous model, sales and local information. Extended to 8 countries.

>> Time to use the “full method”, with Experts.

June 05 23

Thank you !

The EFMA forecast :