europa-enterprise-thinking ahead for e-skills in...

THINKING AHEAD ON e-SKILLS FOR

THE ICT INDUSTRY IN EUROPE

Harnessing our Strengths and Diversity for the World Stage

Annexes

Council of European Professional Informatics Societies

December, 2006

Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ii - A Glossary of Abbreviations v - A Bibliographic References x - A

Annexes

Annex A: Project Remit: Contract Annex I 1 - AAnnex B: Modelling Approach and Model Design 6 - AAnnex C: The 2006 Thessaloniki Declaration 21 - AAnnex D: Summary of the ‘Rand Europe’ Report: The Supply &

Demand of e-skills in Europe 27 - A

Annex E: ICT Industry employment development in EU Member States

29 - A

Annex F: Summaries of Recent ICT-related Foresight exercises 41 - AAnnex G: The Change Drivers and their Impact 60 - AAnnex H: Stakeholder contributions: persons contacted,

interviews, workshops, meetings 81 - A


Acknowledgements

CEPIS, and the Project Team*, would like to express their appreciation to the following for their time and commitment in providing valuable input into this work:

Liz Addison e-Skills UK Xavier Autexier French ICT Alliance (Alliance-TICS) Björn Axelsson Swedish IT and Telecom Industry Association (IT-Företagen) Pascale Barbolosi CRP Henri Tudor, Luxembourg Jeno Bartalos Hungarian Association of IT Companies (IVSZ)Emma Bluck Cisco CNAP, European and Emerging Markets Elena Bonfiglioli Microsoft EMEA, BrusselsVicente Burillo Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM) Antonello Busetto Italian Federation of Communications and Information Technology Businesses (Federcomin) Dany Buyse The (Belgian) Federation for the Technology Industry (Agoria ICT) Luisella Ciani Federcomin Stephen Darvill LogicaCMG Leo Debecker ETNO, Brussels Irene De Beni CompTIA & e-SCC Jim DeIanni Microsoft Learning, United States Dudley Dolan Trinity College Dublin Juan C. Dueñas Spanish Electronics, Information Technology

and Telecommunications Industries Association (AETIC) Mark East Microsoft Education EMEA Nikolaos Faldamis ex-CIO, Olympic Airways Johannes Foerner Microsoft Learning EMEA Ana Franco-Lopez Eurostat (LFS), Luxembourg Aleksander Frydrych The Polish Chamber of Information Technology and Telecommunications (PIIT) Filip Geerts Agoria ICT Franz Gramlinger CEDEFOP, Thessaloniki Con Gregg Publica Consulting, Ireland Hannah Grene ICT Ireland Anne Hamilton Microsoft, United States Mark Harris Intel, Munich Andrew Harvey-Price e-Skills UK Antonio Herrera Cisco CNAP EMEA, Spain Peter Hounsome e-Skills UK Timo Höykinpuro Federation of the Finnish Information Industries (FFII)Erwin Ihm Deutsche Telekom Mara Jakobsone Latvian Information and Communication Technologies Association (LIKTA) Jüri Jõema Estonian Association of Information Technology and Telecommunications (ITL)Jonny Johansson Eurostat (LFS), Luxembourg John Joliffe Interel

* Julian Seymour, Francois-Philippe Draguet, Matthew Dixon, Ian Miles, Lawrence Green, Paul Skehan and Vincent Tilman

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Sylvain Jouhette Eurostat (LFS), Luxembourg Matija Kariž Association of Informatics and Telecommunications, Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia Todd Korth Sun Microsystems Gerhard Laga Austrian Federal Chamber of Commerce Alessia Leschiutta Federcomin Nigel Lloyd Cambridge Professional Development David Martin Rubio AETIC Lene Mejer Eurostat (Education Statistics), Luxembourg Jane Millar University College London Vilma Misiukoniene Infobalt Association, Lithuania Sebastian Mueller Cisco Systems/Interel Mary Mulcahy ECDL Foundation Henning Never Deutsche Telekom Aoife O’Sullivan ECDL Foundation John O’Sullivan Thames Communications Franco Patini Federcomin Ian D. Pearson British Telecom Stephan Pfisterer German Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media (BITKOM) Axel Pols BITKOM Gurdial Rai Professional Contractors’ Group, UK Volker Rein Federal Institute for VET (BIBB), Germany Beatrice Rogers Intellect UK Gerd Rohde Union Network International (UNI-Europa) David Martin Rubio AETIC Corinna Schulze IBM EMEA, Belgium Markus Schwertel Cisco Systems Peter Skyte AMICUS the union, UK Phil Smith Cisco Systems, Technology and Corporate Marketing Richard Straub IBM Europe Bernd Taselaar ICT Office, The Netherlands David Taylor Cisco Systems Simon Tindall Sun Microsystems Roberto Triola Federcomin Anneleen Vaandrager Microsoft Education EMEA Steven van’t Veld Architecture, Information and Management bv. The Netherlands Pietro Varaldo Federcomin Desiree van Welsum OECD - DSTI Maris Vitins DATI Exigen Group (on behalf of LITTA), LatviaChristine Wenzel SAP AG Rob Wilson IER, University of Warwick Peter Winkelmayer Austrian Association of the Electrical and Electronic Industry (FEEI) Lutz Ziob Microsoft Learning, United States

The nature of the contributions made is shown in Annex H.

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Glossary of Abbreviations

iv - A


Glossary

of Abbreviations

AETIC Asociación de Empresas de Electrónica, Tecnologías de la Información

y Telecomunicaciones de España (Spanish Electronics, Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries Association)

AG Aktien Gesellschaft (share company) AI Artificial Intelligence AICA Associazione Italiana per l'Informatica ed il Calcolo Automatico (Italian Association for Informatics and Automatic Computation) AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome AISS (former UK) Alliance for Information Systems Skills AITTS (German) Advanced IT Training System (‘APO-IT’ in German) AmI Ambient Intelligence AutoCAD (Industry Standard PC-based Computer-Aided Design software) BCS British Computer Society BIAT BerufsbildungsInstitut Arbeit und Technik (University of Flensburg)

(Vocational Education and Training Institute for Work and Technology) BIBB BundesInstitut for Beruefsbilding (Germany) (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training) BISER project on Benchmarking the Information Society for European Regions BITKOM Bundesverband Informationswirtschaft, Telekommunikation und neue Medien

(German Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media)

BMFT Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung (German) Federal Ministry for Education and Research BPO Business Process Outsourcing B2B Business-to-Business B2C Business-to-Consumer c.f. compared with CAD Computer-Aided Design CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CaTV Cable Television CCMI Consultative Commission on Industrial Change (of Council of Europe) CCTV Closed Circuit Television CDL Career Development Loan CE Consumer Electronics CEDEFOP Centre Européen pour le Développement de la Formation Professionnelle

(European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training CEN Comité Européen de Normalisation (European Standards body) CEN/ISSS European Committee for Standardisation/

Information Society Standardisation System CEPIS Council of European Professional Informatics Societies CICCP (OECD/DSTI) Committee for Information, Computer and Communications Policy CIGREF Club Informatique des Grandes Entreprises Francaises

(ICT Club of large French companies) CIO Chief Information Officer CMM(I) Capability Maturity Model (Integration) CNAP Cisco Networking Academy Program CompTIA Computing Technology Industry Association

v - A

Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe CRA (US) Computing Research Association CRP Centre de Recherche Public CSR Corporate Social Responsibility CTO Chief Technology Officer CVTS EU Continuing Vocational Training Survey CWA CEN Workshop Agreement C2C Consumer-to-Consumer DCITA Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts

(Australian Government) DfEE Department for Education and Employment (UK Government) DG/D-G Directorate-General (of the European Commission) DRM Digital Rights Management DTI Department of Trade and Industry (UK Government) DSTI Directorate of Science, Technology and Industry (at OECD) EAC (D-G) Education and Culture (European Commission) ECDL European Computer Driving Licence Ee-SF European e-Skills Forum EEIG European Economic Interest Group EFMN European Foresight Monitoring Network EICTA European Information, Communications and Consumer Electronics

Technology Industry Associations EITO European Information Technology Observatory EIU Economist Intelligence Unit (UK) EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa EMP Electro-Magnetic Pulse ENTR (D-G) Enterprise and Industry (European Commission) EQF proposed European Qualifications Framework ERECO (former) European Economic Research Consortium ERP Enterprise Resource Planning eSCC e-Skills Certifications ConsortiumETNO European Telecommunications Network Operators' association EULFS European Union Labour Force Survey (Eurostat holdings of Member State LFS data) EUQuaSIT European Qualification Strategies in Information and Communications Technology EUR-ACE (Accreditation of European Engineering Programmes and Graduates) EU-15 (All) European Union Member States (till 2004) EU-25 (All) European Union Member States (2004-2006) EXIN (Examination Institute for Information Science) f/t full time FDI Foreign Direct Investment FEEI Fachverband der Elektro- und ElektronikIndustrie

Austrian Association of the Electrical and Electronic industry FFII Fachverband der Elektro- und Elektronikindustrie

(Federation of the Finnish Information IndustriesFISTERA Formation on Information Society Technologies for the European Research Area FORFÁS (Irish) national policy and advisory board

for enterprise, trade, science, technology and innovation FTE Full-Time Equivalent GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GBP (UK) Pounds Sterling GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographical Information System HE Higher (or Tertiary) Education

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus HQ Headquarters HR Human Resources HRM Human Resource Management HTML Hyper-Text Mark-up Language H/W Hardware IAMSR Institute for Advanced Management Systems Research (Åbo Akademi University) ICEL International Co-operation Europe Ltd ICT Information and Communication Technologies ICTE Information and Communication Technologies and Electronics ICTP ICT Practitioner ICTU ICT User IDC International Data Corporation IER Institute for Employment Research (University of Warwick, UK) IFIP International Federation for Information Processing ILO International Labour Organisation IPR Intellectual Property Rights IPTS Institute for Prospective Technology Studies IS Information System ISBN International Standard Book Number ISCED International Standard Classification of Education ISCO International Standard Classification of Occupations ISI (Fraunhofer) Institut fuer System und Innovationsforschung ISP Internet Service Provider ISSN International Standard Serial Number IST Information Society Technologies ISTAG Information Society Technologies Advisory Group IT Information Technology ITAA Information Technology Association of America ITL Estonian Association of Information Technology and TelecommunicationsITNTO (former UK) IT National Training Organisation ITPS Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies ITQ (UK) IT (user) Qualification IUI Institutet för Näringslivsforskning Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm IVSZ (Hungarian Association of IT Companies)

K-12 (‘K through twelve’ – Kindergarten to twelve years old): the North American designation for primary and secondary education.

KPMG (Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler) LFS Labour Force Survey LIKTA Latvijas Informācijas un komunikācijas tehnoloģijas asociācija (Latvian Information and Communications Technology Association) MCP Microsoft Certified Professional MCST Malta Council of Science and Technology MOS Microsoft Office Specialist M&A Mergers and Acquisitions MP3 MPEG-1 Audio Layer 3 MPEG Moving Picture Experts Group (responsible for development of video and audio

encoding standards) MS Microsoft MS Member States

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe NACE Nomenclature générale des Activités économiques dans la Communauté Européenne

(Nomenclature of economic activities in the European Community) NASSCOM (Indian) National Association of Software and Service Companies NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NOS (UK) National Occupational (Competence) Standards OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ONS (UK) Office for National Statistics OSS Open-Source Software OST (UK) Office of Science and Technology p/t part time PAFET Propuesta de Acciones para la Formacion

de Profesionales de Electronica, Informatica y Telecomunicaciones PC Personal Computer PDA Personal Digital Assistant PREST (Centre of Excellence for) Policy Research in Engineering, Science and Technology (University of Manchester) QA Quality Assurance RIIE Research Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm (see IUI) RoI Return on Investment RSI Repetitive Strain Injury RTF Rich Text Format R&D Research and Development RTD Research, Technology and Development SAP Systems Applications and Products (in Data Processing) (original company name) SEMTA (UK) Science, Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies Alliance

(Sector Skills Council) SET (former) Federation of Finnish Electrical and Electronic Industry SFIA Skills Framework for the Information Age SKOPE (Centre for) Skills, Knowledge and Organisational Performance

(Universities of Oxford and Cardiff) SMEs Small and Medium-sized Enterprises SOC (UK) Standard Occupational Classification SOX Sarbanes-Oxley (recent US regulations regarding financial accountability processes) SSDA (UK) Sector Skills Development Agency SSME Services Science, Management and Engineering STEEPV Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political and Values-related

(grouping of futures “drivers”) STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics STILE (project on) Statistics and Indicators on the Labour market in the e-Economy S/W Software SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (analysis) TICs Technologies de l’Information et de la Communication TNS Taylor Nelson Sofres UC University College UK United Kingdom UNI Union Network International UPM Universidad Polytécnica de Madrid (Polytechnic University of Madrid) USA United States of America VDI Verein Deutsche Ingenieure (Association of German Engineers) VET Vocational Education and Training WIFO (Wirtshafts Forschungs Institut/Oesterreichisches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung)

Austrian Institute for Economics Research

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe WITSA World Information Technology and Services Alliance WP (x) Work Package (x) WTO World Trade Organisation 2-D/3-D Two-dimensional/Three-dimensional

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Bibliographic References

x - A


Bibliographic References

Accenture (2005): ‘Jobs of the Future’, Accenture, in alliance with the Lisbon Council, 2005. Adelman, C. (2000): ‘A Parallel Universe, Expanded: Certification in the Information Technology Guild’ Change, Vol.32, No.3; U.S. Department of Education; May/June, 2000. AISS/ITNTO (1999a): ‘Skills 99’ – IT Skills Summary, DTI/DfEE, July, 1999. AISS/ITNTO (1999b): ‘University-Industry Interface’ Final Report on DTI Project, December, 1999. Baldwin, R. (2006): ‘Globalisation: the great unbundling(s)’; Prime Minister’s Office/ Economic Council of Finland, September, 2006 Beaven, R., Bosworth, D., Lewney, R. and Wilson, R. (2005): ‘Alternative Skills Scenarios to 2020 for the UK Economy’: A report for the SSDA, as a contribution to the Leitch Review of Skills, IER and Cambridge Econometrics, December, 2005. BMBF (2006): ‘Bericht zur technologischen Leistungsfaeigkeit Deutschlands’; Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung, 2006. British Computer Society (2004): ‘Off-shoring: A Challenge or Opportunity for British IT Professionals?’; report by the BCS Working Party on Off-shoring (Ed. Sparrow, E.), November, 2004. British Computer Society (2006): ‘Embracing the Challenge, Exploiting the Opportunities: building a World Class IT Profession in the Era of Global Sourcing’; (second) report by the BCS Working Party on Off-shoring (Ed. Sparrow, E.), May, 2006. Career-Space (2001): ‘Determining the future demand for ICT skills in Europe’; Telford, K. for ICEL, 2001. Carlsson, M., Eriksson, S. and Gottfries, N. (2006): ‘Testing Theories of Job Creation: Does Supply Create its own Demand?’ Uppsala University, Department of Economics Working Paper 2006:7. CEDEFOP (2003): ‘Early identification of skill needs in Europe’ (Schmidt, L.S., Schoemann, and K., Tessaring, M. – Editors); report on conference on Early Recognition of skill needs in Europe (Berlin, 30/31 May 2002); (Cedefop and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Cedefop Reference series 40, 2003), ISBN 92-896-0202-3. CEDEFOP (2004): ‘Identifying skill needs for the Future – from research to policy and practice’ (Schmidt, L.S., Striestska-Ilina, O., Tessaring, M. and Dworschak, B. – Editors); report on conference on Early identification of skill needs in Europe (Thessaloniki, May 2003); (Cedefop and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Cedefop Reference series 52, 2004), ISBN 92-896-0270-8.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe CEN/ISSS (2004a): ‘Generic ICT Skills Profiles for the ICT supply industry - a review by CEN/ISSS ICT-Skills Workshop of the Career Space work’. CEN Workshop Agreement CWA 14925, 2004. CEN/ISSS (2004b): ‘ICT Curriculum Development Guidelines for the ICT supply industry - a review by CEN/ISSS ICT skills Workshop of the Career Space work’. CEN Workshop Agreement CWA 15005, 2005. CEN/ISSS (Beier, Y., Dixon, M.) (2006): ‘A European ICT Skills Meta-Framework: State-of-the-Art Review, Clarification of the Realities, and Recommendations for Next Steps.’ CEN Workshop Agreement CWA 15515, February, 2006. CEPIS (2002): ‘Information Technology Practitioner Skills in Europe’; Council of European Professional Informatics Societies, May, 2002. Clayton, A. (2005): ‘IT Investment, ICT Use and UK Firm Productivity: Summary of ICT effects, and measurement conclusions’; (UK) Office for National Statistics; October, 2005. Coats, D. (2006): ‘Who’s Afraid of Labour Market Flexibility?’: The Work Foundation, U.K. Research Report; June, 2006. DCITA (2006): ‘Building Australian ICT Skills”: Report of the ICT Skills Fore sighting Working Group; Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts, Australian Government; May, 2006. Dixon, M. (2005) ‘e-skills and their measurement’; Paper presented at Eurostat Conference: ‘Knowledge Economy – Challenges for Measurement’, Luxembourg, 8-9 December, 2005. Duran, A. (2004): ‘Anticiper l’evolution des competences en Technologie de l’Information et de la Communication: une application au matier d’entrepreneur de construction’; Working Document, Centre de Recherche Public Henri Tudor, December 2004. Duran, A. & Hua, D. (2006): ‘Quelle prevention du changement en matiere de Gestion de Connaissances au Grand-Duche de Luxembourg d’ici à 2010’ Working Document, Centre de Recherche Public Henri Tudor, 2006. Economist Intelligence Unit (2006): ‘Foresight 2020: Economic, industry and corporate trends’, a report from the EIU sponsored by Cisco Systems; March, 2006. EITO (2001): European Information Technology Observatory – 2001 Report; EITO/EEIG, ISSN 0947-4862, March, 2001. EITO (2005): European Information Technology Observatory – 2005 Report; EITO/EEIG, ISSN 0947-4862, March, 2005. EITO (2005): European Information Technology Observatory – Supplement to the 2005 Report; EITO/EEIG, ISSN 0947-4862, Update October, 2005. EITO (2006): European Information Technology Observatory – 2005 Report; EITO/EEIG, ISSN 0947-4862, March, 2006.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe Ekholm, K. and Hakkala, K. (2005): ‘The Effect of Off-shoring on Labour Demand: Evidence from Sweden’, Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IUI), Stockholm, Working Paper No. 654, May, 2006 Elias, P., McKnight, A. (2001): ‘Skill measurement in official statistics: recent developments in the UK and the rest of Europe’; Oxford Economic Papers 2001 53: 508-540; July 2001. Empirica (2003): ‘e-skills and e-security statistics’, Final Report for Eurostat, September, 2003. e-skills UK (2004): ‘IT Insights: Trends and UK Skills Implications’: A joint publication by e-skills UK and Gartner Consulting, November, 2004. e-Skills Certifications Consortium (2004): ‘e-Skills Public-Private Partnerships - Associative economics of multi-stakeholder partnerships for e-skills development and certifications’; Paper prepared for the European e-Skills Forum, March 2004. EU Commission (D-G EAC) (2005): ‘Towards a European Qualifications Framework for Lifelong Learning’; Commission Staff Working Document: consultation paper, SEC(2005) 957, July 2005. European e-Skills Forum (2004): ‘e-skills for Europe: Towards 2010 and beyond’; Synthesis Report, September, 2004. Eurostat (2001): ‘Information Society Statistics; Statistics in Focus 34/2001; KS-NP-01-034-EN-C, Eurostat (Author: Deiss, R.); March, 2000. Eurostat (2006a): ‘Provision and export of computer services in Europe’; Statistics in Focus 15/2006; KS-NP-06-015-EN-N, Eurostat (Author: Alajääskö); March, 2006. Eurostat (2006b): ‘How skilled are Europeans in using computers and the Internet?’ Statistics in Focus 17/2006; KS-NP-06-017-EN-N, Eurostat April, 2006. Eurostat (2006c): ‘Population statistics’ – detailed tables 2006 Edition; ISSN 1725-8670; Eurostat © European Communities, 2006. Evalueserve (2004): ‘Impact of IT Off-shoring on the US IT Industry’; Evalueserve White Paper series on Global Sourcing, February, 2004. Evalueserve (2006): ‘Impact of Global Sourcing on the UK Economy 2003-2010’; Evalueserve-Nasscom report, 2006. Falk, M. and Wolfmayr, Y. (2005): ‘Employment Effects of Outsourcing to Low Wage Countries – Empirical evidence for EU countries’; WIFO Working Paper No. 262, Vienna, November 2005. Federcomin (2006): ‘The ICT Sector in Italy’: Facts and Figures 2005-6 – Information, Communication and Media Technologies; Federation of (Italian) Communications and Information Technology Businesses (Federcomin), with the Study Centre of the Italian Ministry for Innovation and Technology, 2006. Forfas (2001): ‘Responding to Ireland’s Skills Needs’ - The Fourth Report of the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs, October, 2003.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe Forrester (2005a): ’IT Skills Shortages on the Horizon: IT Skills that will be in Demand in 2005 and Beyond’; Symons, C., with Pohlmann, T., and Lambert, N., Forrester Research, January, 2005. Forrester (2005b): ’Europe’s Looming IT Skills Deficit: rising retirement rates will fuel a renewed skills shortage’; Peynot, R., with Herzog, C., Le Quoc, K., and Takahashi, S., Forrester Research, June, 2005.

Gartner (2005): ‘The IT Professional Outlook: where will we go from here?’: Diane Morello, Gartner Research report G00130462, September, 2005. Gregg, C. (2006): Unpublished communications concerning relationships of Software Investment with other key variables, August, 2006. HM Treasury (2005): ‘Skills in the UK: the long-term challenge”; Interim Report of the Leitch Review of Skills, December 2005. HM Treasury (2006): ‘Prosperity for all in the global economy – word class skills”; Final Report of the Leitch Review of Skills, December 2006. Hovlin, K. (2006): ‘Off-shoring IT Services: A Swedish Perspective’; Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), April 2006. Huws, U. (2003): ‘Classification of Sectors and Occupations in a Knowledge-based Economy’; results of Work Package 3, project on Statistics and Indicators on the Labour Market in the e-Economy (STILE), 2003. IBM (Barnes, D.N.) (2005a): ‘New Skills in Transforming Businesses: America’s Evolving IT Workforce’: an IBM perspective; IBM Corporation, 2005. IBM (Spohrer, J.C.) (2005b): ‘The Emergence of Service Science: Towards systematic service innovations to accelerate the co-production of value’, IBM Research, 2005. ICT Skills Monitoring Group (2002): ‘e-Business and ICT Skills in Europe’ – Benchmarking Member State Policy Initiatives; (Technopolis for) D-G Enterprise, December, 2002. IDC (2002): ‘Despite Weak Economy, Skilled ICT Staff Still Needed in Europe’ An IDC White Paper (Sponsored by CompTIA and VUE), Analyst Kolding, M., June, 2002. IDC (2005): ‘Networking Skills in Europe: Will an Increasing Shortage Hamper Competitiveness in the Global Market?’ An IDC White Paper (Commissioned by Cisco Systems), Analysts Kolding, M. and Kroa, V., September, 2005. IFIP (2002): Papers for the IFIP/OECD/WITSA Joint Working Conference on ‘Global IT Skills – the Role of Professionalism’, October, 2002. ILO (2006): ‘Occupations in Information and Communications Technology: Options for Updating the International Standard Classification of Occupations’; Discussion Paper, Policy Integration Department, Bureau of Statistics, International Labour Organisation, April, 2006. Independent Expert Group on R&D and Innovation (2006): ‘Creating an Innovative Europe’ (the Aho report); report of the Independent Expert Group on R&D and Innovation appointed following

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe the (2005) Hampton Court Summit and chaired by Mr. Esko Aho; EUR 22005, ISBN 92-79-00964-8; January, 2006. Intellect (UK) (2006a): ‘Innovation Nation?’ – a special report from Intellect and Computing, April, 2006. Intellect (UK) (2006b): ‘Navigating the New Economy’: Defining and Measuring Progress towards the UK Knowledge Economy; Intellect Report, May, 2006. Intellect (UK) (2006c): ‘Women in ITEC: International Comparative Research Phase One’, Intellect Report, written by e-skills UK, November, 2006. KPMG (2006): ‘ICT Watch – A view to the future’: KPMG/Intellect Survey; March, 2006. Kratena, K. (2006): ‘International Outsourcing and Labour with Sector-specific Human Capital’; WIFO Working Paper No. 272, Vienna, April 2006. LeMaitre, G. (2002): ‘Measures of Skill from Labour Force Surveys – An Assessment’; DSTI/OECD, October, 2002. Mann, C. (2006): ‘Information Technology and International Trade in Services: The Next Wave of Productivity Growth’; (Powerpoint presentation for the RIIE Conference, Stockholm), Brandeis University, November 2006. Markusen, J. (2005): ‘Modelling the Off-shoring of White-Collar Services: from Comparative Advantage to the New Theories of Trade and FDI’; Univ. Colorado, Boulder Working Paper, July, 2005 Microsoft (UK) (2006): ‘Developing the Future’: A report on the challenges and opportunities facing the UK Software Development Industry; Report by the Initial Working Party for Developing the Future (co-sponsored by BCS and Lancaster University), July, 2006. Microsoft (UK) (2006): ‘Response to Developing the Future’, July, 2006. OECD (2004): ‘Information Technology Outlook 2004’: DSTI (Chapter 6: ICT Skills and Employment); October, 2004. OECD (2005a): ‘New Perspectives on ICT Skills and Employment’: Working Party on the Information Economy: JT00182880 (DSTI/ICCP/IE (2004)10/FINAL), April, 2005. OECD (2005/6): ’The Share of employment potentially affected by Off-shoring – an empirical investigation’; (Authors Van Welsum, D. and Reif, X.); OECD WPIE JT03204404 (DSTI/ICCP/IE (2005)8/FINAL); February, 2006 OECD (2006a): ‘Think Scenarios, Rethink Education’ ISBN: 926402364, July, 2006. OECD (2006b): ‘Information Technology Outlook 2006’, DSTI, September, 2006. OECD (2006c): ‘Potential Impacts of International Sourcing on Different Occupations’, DSTI/CICCP – Working Party on the Information Economy, (Authors Van Welsum, D. and Reif, X.); October, 2006.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe Ovum (2006): ‘The Impact of global sourcing on the UK software and IT Services sector’; a study by Ovum for the Department of Trade and Industry, June, 2006. Pardo Fox (2003): ‘Survey into the State of the IT Training Industry in Europe, the Middle East and Africa’; Pardo-Fox for CompTIA and Thomson Prometric, October, 2003 (© CompTIA 2003). Pardo Fox (2004): ‘The Second Annual Survey into the State of the IT Training Industry in EMEA’; Pardo-Fox for CompTIA, Thomson Prometric, and Microsoft; October, 2004 (© CompTIA 2004). Petersen, W. & Wehmeyer, C. (2003): ‘ICT practitioner Skills and training solutions at sub-degree level in Europe’ Cedefop/BIAT, 2003. Petersen, W. et al. (2004): ‘European Qualification Strategies in ICT (EUQuaSIT): Recommendations on European ICT Qualifications’, BIAT, University of Flensburg, 2005). Platman, K. & Taylor, P. (2004): ‘Workforce Ageing in the New Economy: A comparative Study of Information Technology Employment’: a European summary report focusing on the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands, WANE/University of Cambridge, 2004. Rand Europe (2005): ‘The Supply and Demand of e-Skills for Europe’; October, 2005. Sala, F. (2004): ‘The Impact of low computer literacy in the Information Society”; e-Challenges 2004 (Workshop 5h), October 2004. Sato, M.: (2005): ‘Outsourcing and Off-shoring: Key Trends and Issues’; Background paper prepared for the Emerging Markets Forum, Said Business School, Oxford, November, 2005. SEMTA (2005): ‘Specialist IT User Skills for Manufacturing, Processing and Logistics’; Project Final Report, Sector Skills Council for Science, Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies (SEMTA), March, 2005. SET/ÅA (2001): ‘ICT Employment Scenarios 2010: Future Scenarios of Employment in the European ICT-Sector’: Federation of Finnish Electrical and Electronics Industry (SET) (and Åbo Academy/Institute for Advanced Management Systems Research), 2001. Spöttl, G. and Becker, M. (2004): ‘ICT Practitioner Skills and training: Automotive Industry’ Cedefop Report 5147, 2004. Steedman, H., Wagner, K., Foreman, J. (2003): ‘ICT skills in the UK and Germany: How companies adapt and react’; Anglo-German Foundation, September 2003. TNS Infratest (2004): ‘Horizons2020: a thought-provoking look at the future’; a study report of TNS Infratest Wirtschaftsforschung (Scharioth, J., Huber, M., Schulz, K., Palla, M.), Munich, October, 2004. Wilson, R., Homenidou, K., and Dickerson, A. (2004): ‘Working Futures: New Projections of Occupational Employment by Sector and Region’, 2002-2012, IER, January, 2004. Wilson, R., Homenidou, K., and Dickerson, A. (2006a): ‘Working Futures: 2004-20014 National Report’ (and range of specific reports), IER report for SSDA, January, 2006.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe Wilson, R. (2006b): ‘Pan European Employment Projections: Some Preliminary Results’ Paper presented at the workshop on Anticipating Europe’s Skill Needs, 2-3 November, 2006 (University of Warwick, UK).

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Annexes

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Annex A:

Project Remit: Contract Annex I

1 - A


Tender Specifications and Monitoring

Introduction The European Commission established an ICT Skills Monitoring Group in September 2001. The group released a benchmarking report which was discussed at the European e-Skills Summit on 16-18 October 2002 in Copenhagen.

As a follow up of the Conclusions on "ICT and e-business skills in Europe" adopted by the Council on 5 December 2002 the Commission established in March 2003 a European e-Skills Forum composed of representatives and experts from EU Member States, candidate and accessing countries, EFTA countries, industry and social partners as well as education and training communities. All relevant Commission services, the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) and the OECD are also represented.

The Forum released a synthesis report “e-Skills in Europe: Towards 2010 and Beyond” which was discussed at the European e-Skills 2004 Conference on 20-21 September 2004 in Thessalonica. A key recommendation is that the Commission should support the development of e-skills foresight scenarios in the EU. In support of this activity, a six-month study has been launched in January 2005 to collect the most recent information and statistical data available concerning e-skills in the EU and to present concrete proposals for the setting-up of foresights scenarios mechanisms at the European level.

Information concerning this study and general information are available on Internet:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/enterprise/ict/policy/ict-skills.htm

1. DESCRIPTION OF THE TASKS The Contractor shall develop e-skills foresight scenarios (time horizon: 10 years) in the EU in close co-operation with relevant stakeholders: Member States, academia, industry and social partners, European Commission, CEDEFOP and the OECD.

The aims of this service contract are:

■ To interview and involve stakeholders and existing national forward-thinking teams in a structured process to share knowledge on emerging research, ideas and trends with a view to foster consensus and develop appropriate e-skills foresight scenarios at EU level;

■ To promote creative thinking and shared visions of the future as well as open, constructive and fruitful exchanges between stakeholders and policy makers at EU level;

■ To develop plausible foresight scenarios (5-10 max.), to examine what could emerge from foreseeable, structural changes and wildcard developments and how these might affect the supply and demand of e-skills within the next 10 years;

■ To develop a model capable of producing reliable quantitative estimates on the supply and demand of e-skills in the EU based on the scenarios (with a particular focus on practitioners);

■ To produce reliable qualitative information relating to the specific e-skills in demand;

■ To provide early recognition of trends and new developments which may trigger important consequences and to help in e-skills policy development and priority setting (notably for the promotion of employability, upward mobility, career prospects and the competitiveness of enterprises);

■ To propose barometers and scanning variables to reflect the changes and update the scenarios and the results periodically;

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http://europa.eu.int/comm/enterprise/ict/policy/ict-skills/cph_summit.htm

http://europa.eu.int/comm/enterprise/ict/policy/doc/cou-concl-dec-2002.eskills.pdf

http://europa.eu.int/comm/enterprise/ict/policy/doc/cou-concl-dec-2002.eskills.pdf

http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2002doc.nsf/linkto/dsti-doc(2002)10

http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2002doc.nsf/linkto/dsti-doc(2002)10

http://europa.eu.int/comm/enterprise/ict/policy/ict-skills.htm


■ To recommend, in agreement with stakeholders, concrete solutions for periodical updating and sustainable e-skills foresight mechanisms at EU level.

A particular focus shall be put on the ICT sector as well as issues relating to global sourcing as well as gender and older professionals. While the time horizon will be ten years, particular attention should be paid to the 2010 and 2015 milestones.

The Contractor shall take into account recent and on-going ICT foresight activities at the national and international level by government, academia and industry. For example:

- A consortium of ICT companies delivered a first scenario study at European level in 2001 in the scope of their activities in their “Career Space” initiative1. ICT companies also employ market research and surveys2 for their strategic planning.

- The Commission is promoting science and technology foresight3 as well as technology foresight projects in the IST domain4;

- The IST Advisory Group (ISTAG)5 regularly delivers important contributions.

The tasks to be performed by the Contractor are the following:

■ To assemble a competent multi-disciplinary team of experts, covering the relevant fields and the EU, for the development of e-skills foresight scenarios;

■ To assist the Commission in the establishment of an advisory group composed of representatives of stakeholders and governments;

■ To conduct literacy research, interviews and surveys and to present a brief overview of current e-skills forecasting and foresight activities in the EU and at international level;

■ To interview and involve existing national forward-thinking teams and to ensure that their views will be taken into account;

■ To propose a multi-disciplinary approach based on an interaction between key factors: market, society and technology;

■ To formulate key questions and issues to be discussed and agreed by stakeholders. A particular focus shall be put on the ICT sector as well as issues relating to global sourcing as well as gender and older professionals;

■ To identify critical change factors and a range of wildcard developments;

■ To elaborate operational e-skills definitions based on those formulated by the European e-Skills Forum in its synthesis report “e-Skills in Europe: Towards 2010 and Beyond” for the measurement of the demand and supply for e-skills in the EU;

■ To conduct political, economic, social, technological and ecological as well as strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analyses of future trends and developments;

■ To develop a set of assumptions for the development of the foresight scenarios and to organise scenario workshop(s) with stakeholders and experts;

1 http://www.career-space.com/downloads/eu-employment2010u.pdf 2 For example: http://www.cisco.com/edu/emea/pdfs/idc_2003.pdf 3 http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/ and http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/index_en.htm4 http://fiste.jrc.es/pages/horizontal.htm 5 http://www.cordis.lu/ist/istag.htm

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http://www.career-space.com/downloads/eu-employment2010u.pdf

http://www.cisco.com/edu/emea/pdfs/idc_2003.pdf

http://www.cordis.lu/foresight/

http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/index_en.htm

http://fiste.jrc.es/pages/horizontal.htm

http://www.cordis.lu/ist/istag.htm

Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe ■ To develop multiple plausible foresight scenarios (5-10 max.) and to examine what could emerge

from foreseeable, wildcard developments and structural changes and how these might affect the supply and demand of e-skills within the next 10 years;

■ To develop a model capable of producing reliable quantitative estimates on the supply and demand of e-skills in the EU based on the scenarios (with a particular focus on practitioners);

■ To produce reliable qualitative information relating to the specific e-skills in demand in numbers and in skills profiles at different levels;

■ To provide early recognition of trends and new developments which may trigger important consequences and to help in e-skills policy development and priority setting (notably for the promotion of employability, competitiveness, upward mobility and career prospects);

■ To propose barometers and scanning variables to reflect the changes and to update periodically the quantitative and qualitative results of the e-skills foresight scenarios;

■ To establish and animate a virtual community in co-operation with CEDEFOP and the Commission to seek the contributions of a wider group of stakeholders and experts;

■ To deliver an interim report presenting e-skills foresight scenarios relating the supply and demand for the ICT sector no later than six months after the signature of the contract;

■ To deliver a final report presenting detailed foresight scenarios relating to the supply and demand of e-skills in the EU and policy recommendations, in agreement with stakeholders, including concrete solutions for periodically updating sustainable and useful e-skills foresight mechanisms at EU level. It should be delivered no later than 11 months after the signature of the contract.

Three meetings should be planned in Brussels (or at a place to be agreed with the Contractor) with the Commission during the course of the project. The Commission will take care of the practical organisation of these meetings. A kick-off meeting will take place no later than two weeks after the signature of the contract. A second meeting will be organised for the presentation of the interim report and a third meeting will take place at the end of the contract for the presentation of the results of the study and the final report. Attendance at these meetings and participation in these missions should be limited to three persons maximum.

Organisation of additional meetings by the Contractor to interview experts and of five workshops at different locations of Europe as indicated in its tender.

Because of the nature of the tasks and of the domain which is related to new information and communication technologies, the working language for this operation will be English.

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2. REPORTS AND DOCUMENTS All reports and documents must be delivered in English.

The Contractor shall submit to the Commission the following reports:

- A report presenting a detailed roadmap taking into account the conclusions of the kick-off meeting. This report shall be delivered no later than one month after the signature of the contract ;

- An interim report presenting e-skills foresight scenarios for the ICT sector in the EU. This report shall be delivered no later than six months after the signature of the contract;

- To deliver a final report presenting detailed foresight scenarios relating to the supply and the demand of e-skills in the EU and recommendations, in agreement with stakeholders, concerning concrete solutions for periodically updating and ensuring sustainable e-skills foresight mechanisms at EU level. This report shall be delivered no later than eleven months after the signature of the contract.

The structure, the size and the detailed sections of each report (interim and final) will be agreed with the Commission at least three months before its delivery, with the exception of the report presenting the detailed roadmap which structure will be agreed during the kick-off meeting of the project with the Commission. This kick-off meeting should take place no later than the second week following the signature of the contract.

The delivery and review process for each of these reports is the following:

- The Contractor sends the report electronically on due-time via electronic mail and delivers three hard-copies of it via normal post-mail;

- The Commission reviews the report and either accepts it or sends written comments to the Contractor within twenty days;

- The Contractor updates the report according to the comments within twenty days following receipt of these comments.

3. PRESENTATIONS

Presentations to be made at the kick-off meeting with the Commission and at the interim and the final meetings to present the results of the project are an integral part of the deliverables of the project. The details of the presentations as well as the related timetables will be agreed upon between the Contractor and the Commission on an ad-hoc basis when preparing these meetings.

4. MONTHLY PROGRESS REPORTS

To ensure the proper management and follow-up of the project by the Commission, the Contractor will be asked to submit electronically a short and concise monthly progress report highlighting specifically the following elements:

- Short summary focusing on the global project status and the timely execution of the various tasks of the project;

- Risks and issues affecting the progress of the project and the corresponding corrective actions proposed;

- Revised roadmap and work programme if appropriate.

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Annex B:

Modelling Approach and Model Design

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Modelling Approach and Model Design This Annex attempts to summarise, and comparatively assess, the two modelling approaches which, in principle, were open to the consortium team in responding to the quantitative aspect of the project remit, and presents the reasoning for the model design choices made. B.1 Introduction Annex I of the Contract (Annex A) required the consortium, inter alia:

• To develop a model capable of producing reliable quantitative estimates on the supply and demand of e-skills in the EU based on the scenarios (with a particular focus on practitioners).

This is a challenging requirement, albeit clearly desirable in relation to policy analysis needs. In particular, there is inevitably an issue around the meaning of reliability, given a) the limited availability of consistent data at the EU level on which effectively to ‘calibrate’ any mathematical model and b) the fact that no individual quantitative estimate of the future can ever be considered ‘reliable’. The scenario approach is testimony to a recognition that it is more sensible, given the wide range of uncertainties, to have a range of quantitative estimates for possible development. There are different possible approaches to building a model to produce estimates of future demand and supply of skills and occupational employment levels. The Eurostat Conference on ‘Knowledge Economy – Challenges for Measurement’, held in Luxembourg, 8-9 December, 2005, confirmed the continuing gap in thinking between:

• those involved in modelling, using ‘traditional’ econometric paradigms, comparatively ‘coarsely differentiated’ aspects of ‘Human Capital’ in relation to economic activity, and

• those, like the consortium team whose approach to modelling arises from understanding of:

- the detailed realities of the specific labour markets involved, - the priorities of skills policy analysis needs and, above all, - the availability or otherwise of reasonably meaningful quantitative data for the

European Union as a whole (at least the EU-15).

• The clear policy-driven context of the project was the main driving force behind the consortium’s approach to the task: from the team’s point of view, the over-riding priorities for model design are the need to ‘squeeze’ as much relevant information out of the available datasets as possible, and

• keep the model as small, and as simple in structure, as possible, so as to maximise the chances of those involved in the possible use of the findings of the analysis being able to really internalise what it does, and so gain confidence in its outputs.

A third consideration also played an important contextual role in the approach, namely a desire to make the results of the quantitative forecasting model as broadly coherent with the qualitative scenarios, that have been produced based on the elaboration of drivers, as possible. It is important to recognise that there was no explicit requirement in the project remit for such coherence, but the consortium believed that there would be added value in attempting it.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe However, the consortium is aware of the risk that accompanies this approach – the possibility that those considering the study will jump to the conclusion that the qualitative scenarios and the corresponding quantitative trajectories are 100% consistent. They are not as they have different purposes and so different emphases, but, on balance, the consortium believes that the potential benefits of broad coherence outweigh the risk of possible wrong assumptions by some readers. B.2 Modelling and Forecasting Employment Levels As indicated, there are different ways of approaching the quantitative modelling task. In general terms, what is required is a plausible mathematical functional relationship between employment levels and a number of independent factors that are expected to influence them.

Factor 1

Factor 2

Factor 3 Employment level

f

… ... The model equation would therefore generally be of the form:

Employment level = f (Factor 1, Factor 2, Factor 3, ………….. etc.)

The choice of the form of the function represented by f and the number, and choice, of the factors chosen for the model are what constitutes the model selection and design. Once the factors, and the functional relationship between employment levels and each, have been chosen and identified for past activity, then future employment levels can, in principle, be estimated based on assumptions about the future development of each of the factors. The underlying assumption is that more is likely to be known about future development of the “input” factors than of the dependent “output” variable – in this case employment levels. In this situation, even if there is not full confidence in the knowledge of the likely development of all the influencing factors, if it is believed that they significantly affect the output, it is important that this influence be reflected in the forecast. The two main approaches to model selection and design are now presented.

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B.2.1 Economic Theory-driven Approach:

In the context of traditional economic/econometric theory, the usual approach would be to propose a relationship between employment and the independent ‘input’ variables on which it depends in the form of a regression equation, which is generally linear and then estimate the parameters of the equation using available data, controlling as much as possible for variables not explicitly included. Thus for example, an equation of the form:

Employment = α + β * Factor 1 + γ * Factor 2 + δ * Factor 3 + ………….. + ε

can be postulated in relation to any particular category of employment within the economy, and for any scope of geographical and/or sectoral coverage, where the ‘Factors’ that are assumed to influence employment levels would be things like:

• demand factors* like relevant economic activity levels (e.g. sector turnover, or a measure of added value), and the corresponding productivity levels;

• the cost of the labour involved (wages, salaries); • the cost of other input factors; • technical change in the relevant business processes; • the supply of labour/skills relevant to the employment; and • degree of off-shoring of the activity.

The term α allows for a ‘starting level’ of employment or ‘offset’ and ε is a residual error term, which would be assumed to have certain statistical properties, and which plays a role in enabling the regression process. With this approach, values of the coefficients for each factor (which specify the scale of the – assumed linear – dependence of employment on that factor):

(α,) β, γ, δ, …… etc.

could be estimated using some kind of regression technique, an approach that can provide robust estimates providing that sufficient (time series) data for each independent variable to enable the regression to converge is available. Such coefficients are often termed the elasticities of the different factors in relation to employment. The scope of employment to which the equation refers could, in principle, be of different kinds, including:

• coverage of a particular sector (or set of sectors or set of ‘sub-sectors’/segments); • coverage of a particular occupation (or set of occupations); • coverage of a particular set of occupations within a particular sector (as here, where the

focus of the core model is on employment levels of IT Practitioner occupations within the Software and IT Services sector), and, for whichever of these is of interest;

• coverage of a particular economic ‘geography’ – e.g. for a region within a country, for an individual Member State, a group of Member States or the European Union as a whole (e.g. EU-15 or EU-25).

The variable values would therefore consist of averages over the scope of employment in question.

* demand for skills/employment is recognised to be a derived demand: a certain level of economic activity e.g. within a sector generally has a reasonably strong correlation with the number of people employed in the sector, the relationship being ‘scaled’ by the coefficient of corresponding productivity levels. The skills employment levels are thus viewed as being derived from the levels of economic activity.

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With the coefficients estimated, it is then possible to explore the development of employment levels over time and into the future) as the value(s) of the input variables are changed. The validity of forecasts based on this approach, depends, of course, on the coefficient, or model parameter, values not changing (significantly) in the future, as compared with the reference period over which they have been ‘estimated’. This linear regression approach has been used, in the economic research literature, in a number of models exploring broad impacts of economic activity on employment. The models developed provide useful broad insights into the effect of different factors on employment levels, not least in throwing light on the directions of influence of each ‘input’ variable on the ‘output’ (employment), and in some cases, involving certain disaggregation, for example between two (e.g. skilled and unskilled labour), or sometimes three (e.g. low, medium and high) skill levels*. This linear-regression approach can be seen, for example in relation to efforts to estimate the effect of off-shoring (sometimes referred to as international outsourcing), in work by Falk and Wolfmayr (2005), and Ekholm and Hakkala (2006).

Overall, this economic research approach has one important strength and one important weakness.

• The major strength is that, with a regression approach, it is possible to reconcile supply and demand in an integrated way, if there is adequate quantitative evidence about historical development of their levels. Given the central nature of the interaction between supply and demand that characterises market economics, this is a considerable strength.

• The major weakness is that the approach turns out not to be so useful in practice for labour market analysis. The consortium team knows of no application of this approach to estimate parameters that have then been used directly in skills policy development. The reason for this comes as no great surprise: there is not sufficient quantitative data available, even at national level, for the vast majority of the factors* that influence employment levels that would enable them to be successfully estimated.

In this situation, economists generally seek plausible ‘proxies’ for the variable(s) of interest, but, as will be seen, the practical challenge here is to convince those who might use the results that the proxy for which certain data is available is an adequately meaningful measure of the variable really desired.

* In principle, these groupings can be track using either education (highest academic qualification) or occupational data. In the international domain, these use the ISCED and ISCO classifications, respectively). There are strengths and weaknesses of both measures. * Perhaps the greatest handicap from the economics point of view is that price, perhaps the central variable in open market theory, suffers particularly from a lack of comprehensive, comparable, meaningful data in European labour markets.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe B.2.2 Skills Policy-based approach

In the skills policy environment, on the other hand, a number of characteristics and considerations produce a rather different situation and, as a result, different modelling approaches. As would be expected, pragmatism is the over-riding consideration, and the approach is strongly influenced by a number of practical considerations of the way labour-market behaviour is viewed in the policy world – both qualitative and quantitative. Some of the considerations are:

• Labour markets vary considerably between economic sectors, both in terms of their demand-supply behaviours and of the state of particular labour markets at particular times. Thus, as well as it being the case that demand is waxing in some sectors (e.g. in IT during the 1990s and in biotechnology at the present time) and waning in others (e.g. some heavy engineering, many manufacturing sub-sectors within many EU countries over recent years), the balance of supply and demand may vary, as may the patterns of (labour) market imperfection/failure. The very significant differences among sectoral labour markets have led public policy to tackle skills through sectoral foci, and in many cases institutions (e.g. involvement in government skills policy of – sectoral - industry bodies, and even (new) organisations set up – or considered for formal recognition - by government for particular sectors).

• Notwithstanding the importance of understanding the sectoral dimension of labour markets, the skills aspects of labour markets require, for any skilled or even semi-skilled employment, analysis of occupations rather than sectors. The occupational ‘slice’ through employment statistics is crucial in relation to IT Practitioner skills, where in most economies; employment of IT Practitioners is greater within the user sectors (e.g. manufacturing, finance, transport, public sector, etc.) than in the IT (supply) industry. While there are undoubtedly some differences between different sectors in terms of their employment of IT practitioners, the labour market remains predominantly occupational, with many (most?) IT practitioner careers involving time in both supply and user sectors.

• There are huge limitations of data availability. Efforts to articulate and structure the skills that are ‘traded’ within labour markets all confirm the very considerable complexity of the skillsets being sought. These cover both functional or technical skills and a number of ‘softer’ skills of different types that, while always relevant, might have greater or less importance depending on the sector. Given that this complexity results in considerably greater limitations of data on skills than on most other economic variables, the modelling approach tends, rather than putting forward a hypothesis and then looking for the data that would be needed to test it, to emphasise the need to scan all available relevant data sources for the greatest and the best quality relevant data, and then design the model to make best use of that data.

Specifically, the IT Practitioner labour market has been characterised, pretty much since the emergence of IT as a major business factor in the 1970s, by a continuing, chronically severe, shortage of supply from the ‘traditional professional supply channel’ of relevant university courses. However, the reality is that these shortages of supply have been compensated for by recruitment of people without the relevant higher education training. In the early years this resulted in recruitment of graduates (either directly or following experience in other occupations and sectors) of other disciplines, and this still continues within the European marketplace.

Thus, because the imperative was to have ‘bodies around to do the work’ as the sector grew fast, there has generally been less a shortage of supply than a shortage of quality supply. This has had a number of implications, the first of which is that the traditional ‘linear supply’ model of cohorts of graduates with vocational degrees generally large enough to supply the annual new demand is not valid for this labour market. Inter alia, this results in a supply of ‘incoming IT Practitioners’ from a

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range of sources or ‘channels’ (see Section 4.2), in proportions, even at a point in time, about which nothing that could form the basis of a plausible analytical hypothesis is known, and which almost certainly vary considerably between Member States, sometimes significantly (see Steedman et al, 2002, for an example).

Specifically, in practice there are three quite different types of supply process of relevance within IT practitioner skills labour markets:

i) training up the individual; ii) recruitment of new market entrants (e.g. those entering the labour market for the first

time after leaving formal education, and the unemployed and/or those returning following career-breaks), and

iii) recruitment of those already in employment (e.g. IT practitioners currently working within user organisations.

While the (‘career-change’) behaviour of those already in employment could in principle be modelled reasonably well by traditional econometric analysis if good price information were available for (the relevant occupations in) the ‘origin sector’ as well as the ‘destination sector’, this is not the case when considering the situation and behaviour of those leaving full time education, not least since this supply source generally produces ‘batches’ (or cohorts) of generally young people once a year. This latter group is also different in the sense that the concept of surplus of supply is more meaningful in this case. And finally, the characteristics of the training-up method to increasing the supply of skills are fundamentally different, although a) recruitment is sometimes involved, and b) there are in theory financial choices for the employer between ‘buying-in’ and ‘training up’*.

And finally, as hinted above, there is a real question as to the meaning of market-clearing for a labour market. As indicated, IT Practitioner labour markets have long suffered from substantial supply shortages, and yet employment levels of practitioners have grown strongly (subject only to cyclical effects) over the 70s, 80s and 90s. What then has happened? It seems clear to consortium team members with considerable experience of this labour market that the threshold for candidate acceptability has been set considerably lower for IT practitioner recruitment than for recruitment in technical professions where the ‘linear supply channel’ (flows of graduates from the relevant vocational courses) has been more or less adequate for annual supply needs. In the absence of adequate supply, employers have recruited candidates who have many good qualities, but comparatively limited levels of (breadth and depth of) relevant technical knowledge. Thus what has characterised this labour market has been less skills supply shortages than (adequate) quality skills supply shortages. The numbers were recruited, but significant amounts of initial training were required to get the new recruits to a level of competence at which they would be sufficiently productive.

……..

All in all, while in principle the ‘normal’ economic models ought to be able to help in understanding, analysing and forecasting (occupational) labour market behaviour in support of skills policy, in practice this has rarely (if ever) been achieved, almost certainly because of the significantly greater level of complexity of the market mechanisms and behaviour involved.

* so that, for example, if supply scarcities on the open labour market grew so great that it was necessary to increase salary offers for vacancies to ridiculously high levels, then the cost (in both time and money) in training people up would in principle become comparatively more attractive.

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What types of quantitative model have then been used for skills policy analysis and future skills forecasting?

There are probably three main characteristics of the conceptual approaches and models used in this context.

• Considering demand first and then supply, sequentially. A typical skills policy analysis involves two steps:

- attempts to clarify (relevant) employer demand (labour markets are generally viewed as demand-driven*); and, when these are well understood,

- attempts to clarify all the different (potential) sources/channels of supply, and then work to find ways to refine/adjust these sources to provide knowledge, skills and competences, in those emanating from the different sources, closer to what employers are looking for**.

• Use for policy development of workforce stock and flows models. This arises mainly since the most significant data sources in which policymakers have confidence are generally one or the other. So, for example, data on employment levels is relatively available (from both household and enterprise surveys), thus providing stock data. All Member States now supply such data from national ‘Labour Force Surveys’ (‘LFSs’ or equivalent) on a quarterly basis, and where the sector or occupation of interest is significant, the statistical reliability is generally good. The other data that is generally comparatively available is that on supply of market entrants (in particular those leaving full-time formal education). This would be very useful data on supply, and is flow data. Some LFSs involve questions on what work the (individual) respondent was doing one year before (generally including both occupation and sector of employer). This allows the gathering of data on flows of occupational/sectoral ‘migration’. There is also often reasonably good data on inward-migration into Member States. While rarely perfect in quality, such data is generally considerably more plentiful robust that some of the data that would be needed in a regression context.

• Importance of annual incremental thinking. In the absence of much of the data one wants (and considerable absence of quantitative evidence on the relevant processes, often the best approach is to focus on likely annual changes to the existing position. Given the prevalence of annual gathering and publishing of data on most economic variables, most senior managers and public officials are particularly familiar and comfortable with annual increases (or decreases) in percentage terms. The fact that such percentages are so central to influential peoples’ perception of the dynamics of systems and processes means that models based on such annual incremental percentages are much more naturally and quickly understood and ‘internalised’ than most other forms.

The overall modelling approach adopted for this study draws on all three paradigms: 1) the model considers demand for each scenario, and then, subsequently, the supply required

to ‘fulfil’ the demand levels; 2) a stock and flows structure is adopted, with projections made on the basis of future

development of stock, followed by detailed reconciliation of supply and demand of the annual flows required, and

3) the model form adopted was one with (only) annual percentage incremental functions, and no separate coefficients for the different input factors – i.e. a very simple, multiplicative form of equation.

* 99% of all employment (as opposed to self-employment) is initiated through employers specifying their skills needs (in recruitment announcements relating to vacancies), and choosing between candidates who respond to the announcement, rather than through people offering their services to employers. ** the most obvious example would be policy-makers’ efforts to better align provision in formal - publicly-funded – education to perceived employer needs, since in principle governments have comparatively significant influence on such provision

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe B.3 Possible Hypotheses/Evidence

The following pages consider the impact of the different factors (model input variables) on employment (in the ICT Industry &/or of ICT Practitioners), their likely future development and issues of availability of relevant quantitative empirical evidence.

B.3.1: Expected influence of input variables

Variable Expected influence

Economic activity

The main driving factor, together with productivity

Productivity

The ‘coefficient’ that scales activity levels to employment levels

Labour costs (salaries/wages)

A key influencing factor – generally employment levels would be inversely related to average labour costs

Cost of other input factors

There could in general be substitution between labour and some other input factor (in particular, technology)

Technological change

Through increasing automation, as deployment of technology grows, employment will tend to fall, although there is, before ‘full automation’, typically an intermediate step, where (lower-skilled, lower wage) employment might first increase

Supply of relevant skills

Supply of new IT Practitioners comes from a number of sources: generally there will be an inverse relationship between level of relevant labour supply and the (average) price of labour.

Degree of Off-shoring

The overall (long-terms macro-economic) impact of off-shoring* on employment is by no means simple, or yet proven from empirical. The relationship is being explored, by economists and econometricians, in particular in the EU, using a ranged of hypotheses and analytical models. European explorations (in particular Falk and Wolfmayr, (2005) and Ekholm and Hakkala (2005)) have so far been restricted to sectors not including Software & IT Services, and for either single countries or a subset of EU Member States). Agreed analytical models with full EU-wide empirical testing are awaited.

However, there is no ambiguity about the direct micro-economic impact of off-shoring steps on the local (national) labour market: there is an initial significant loss of employment, with a relatively minor increase in supplier management work (contract-management, QA, etc.)

Table B1: Expected Impact of input factors on employment

B.3.2: Expected future development of input variables Possible hypotheses/evidence for the future development of the input variables: * two kinds of off-shoring are often considered in the economic research literature (where it is generally considered through the proxy of share of total - product/service - output represented by intermediate inputs): narrow (where the intermediate input (imported) is from the same sector) and broad (where it could come from any other sector). It seems likely that ‘intermediate inputs’ into the Software & IT Services sector would consist of Software &/or IT Services, so that off-shoring from NACE 72 is likely to be in the ‘narrow’ category.

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Variable

Expected development

Economic activity

Influenced by a range of factors (including prevailing interest rates), but strongly affected by prevailing business confidence, in the context of market consumption

Productivity Average productivity tends to increase under competitive pressure and increased use of technology

Labour costs (salaries/wages) Mean labour costs tend to increase steadily, but excessive rises will be unlikely to sustain in real terms


Continuing competition will generally bear down on most prices relevant to substitution between e-skills labour and other input factors


ICT work generally involves technological change, and this typically impacts (increases) productivity. This is likely to continue (and accelerate), irrespective of whether initiated from with the EU

Supply of relevant skills Central focus of the study – supply of e-skills at desired quality levels expected to remain a challenge

Degree of Off-shoring Likely to steadily increase (from within the EU) over the coming years

Table B2: Expected Future Development of input factors

uropean Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe

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B.3.3: Data availability for different variables

Factor Variable (also possible ‘Proxies’)

Scope (sectoral/occupational) Geographical Scope

Employment levels Numbers in employment, as measured in both enterprise and household survey

Available for sectors, for occupations, and for cross-tabulations of both

Available for most EU Member states, and – subject to conversion errors – broadly comparable data held in the EU Labour Force Survey database

Demand levels

No direct measure or (single) proxy

Demand for labour/skills is a derived demand, and can (in principle) be found from sectoral activity (turnover or value added). Thus demand data would be estimated from different influencing variables, although not always easy for occupational analysis.

(not directly available)

Economic activity

Turnover (income) and value added are variables most considered.

Generally sectoral (sub-sectoral)

Generally available all Member States (2 digit NACE level)

Productivity

(Different possible measures.) This is normally a derived variable, so its use in ‘scaling’ employment demand from economic activity requires assumptions about future development.

Can be derived at a sector (sub-sector) level, depending on the availability of the two main driver variables (activity and employment levels/costs)

(see above)

Labour costs (salaries/wages)

Remuneration levels of different kinds are available from different sources.

Occupational remuneration generally only available from LFS sources – generally not perceived to be particularly accurate.

Sectoral/occupational wage data not currently held centrally for all Member States.


Various indicators available Generally available on a Sectoral (sub-sector) basis Generally available for most or all Member States


Various proxies used each with its limitations. Indicators with strong correlation with past employment levels –as used in this Study – of particular value.

Depending on the proxy, generally available for Sectors/ sub-sectors

Not all proxies are available, or measured identically, in different Member States.

Supply of relevant skills

Flows of labour market entrants are often known for those completing formal education. Information (and particularly meaningful quantitative data) on ‘career-move supply’ elements much less available.

Supply of skills workers generally needs to be in occupational terms. Career-move supply evidence would require occupational/sectoral migration data and/or relevant occupational/sectoral remuneration data.

Certain data on formal education completions available from most/all Member States, although there are various questions of comparabilities, given the diversity of education systems

Degree of Off-shoring

(intermediate inputs) Contribution of imported intermediate product/service to complete/final product/service (percentage of gross output)

What data exists is available at the sectoral level, although not at fine enough discrimination levels for what is required here (see B.3.4)

(“off-shoring” within the EU and to economies beyond would need to be handled differently)

Table B3: Data Availability for the Input Factors

Council of E


B.3.4: Specific Issues Two areas of data availability are worthy of particular comment in the context of this project: use of ‘intermediate input import’ levels as a proxy for off-shoring, and handling different types/levels of ICT Practitioners. B.3.4.1 Off-shoring Proxies Off-shoring is a particular challenge for qualitative analysis, both in this study and in general. The enterprise-level impact of an off-shoring step is in principle clear: labour is shed by the enterprise, which then imports the service (or output) that had previous been provided by that labour. These changes will be picked up at the macro level in national statistics as follows:

1) employment level statistics (e.g. from Labour Force Surveys) will pick up the net loss of employment in the sector in which the enterprise operates,

2) the corresponding sector labour costs will be reduced, and

3) the trade statistics relevant to that sector will pick up the net increase in the relevant imports. However, the challenge is to detect and in principle correlate these three changes, separately from the other changes in the relevant variables. As indicated, in economic research thus far off-shoring appears to have generally been proxied by import levels of intermediate inputs, and the papers referred to above have explored the relationship between that (type of) variable and sectoral employment levels. While in principle results from such analysis are interesting, intermediate input imports have problems as a proxy for off-shoring of two kinds:

• The proxy also includes all other imports of that type of product/service, irrespective of whether it has arisen from an off-shoring step in the period under analysis or not. While it is true that all imports arise in principle from the fact that the product/service is not being performed within the economy in question (and as such generally represents ‘foregone employment’) there are many components to the figures for that variable that have nothing to do with off-shoring steps. Thus conclusions drawn from them are of interest in relation to balance of imports to indigenous work, but not particularly enlightening in relation to off-shoring per se.

• The second problem arises when attempting to apply the approach to the off-shoring of ICT practitioner work, and here there are two serious challenges. The first is that, while an intermediate input has meaning in the manufacturing context, it has considerably less in relation to software/IT services (very often the Internet allows the ‘final’ service to be delivered direct to the end client). The second challenge arises from classification problems in this area (NACE 72). Specifically, it would be necessary, in gathering data for such an analysis, to distinguish between (in particular) ‘software consultancy and supply’ activity (NACE 72.20 and NACE 72.22) from ‘software publishing’ (NACE 72.21), since imports of the latter would pick up the very considerable volume of ‘shrink-wrapped box’ software (e.g. Microsoft Windows/Office, etc.). Thus such an approach would only be possible with data at 4-digit NACE level of discrimination – generally not available for all Member States.

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B.3.4.2 Types/Levels of ICT Practitioner Section 8.6 considered the impact of the six scenarios on the ICT practitioner skills market in the EU through broad indications of direction and significance for three ‘levels’ of ICT practitioners. As can be seen from the report’s Background Document, the reality of ICT Practitioner occupational structure is such that division into two or three simple ‘level’ categories is not really easy or meaningful to perform. However, in order to get a ‘feel’ for possible differences, this was carried out in 8.6 for three broad groupings drawing on the SFIA skills Framework. In principle it would be excellent to have labour market data with which to be able to investigate possible differences between different types/levels of ICT practitioners. Unfortunately, once again we are faced with serious data limitations. It is true that ISCO 3-digit categories include two relevant codes (ISCO 213 and ISCO 312). However, it is clear from practical examination of data quality (in particular explored in the STILE Project (Huws, 2003) that the accuracy with which LFS returns are coded to the two categories varies seriously between Member States (and indeed until 2002 two Member States did not distinguish between the two and one continues not to do so). Some Member States do return some LFS data to 4 digit discrimination, and a change of ISCO is underway which will, in principle, improve the situation for ICT Practitioner occupations, but only in future years. Where any serious time series is needed, such discrimination is simply not available. B.4 Study Model Design Input variables chosen

Section 7 examined in considerable detail the nature of the dependence of the demand for ICT Practitioner skills on a very large number of driver variables, and 7.4 presented the logic explaining the adoption of three of these.

In addition to the core drivers, two other factors were included as inputs to the model equation, in order to improve its validity:

• an input representing the investment climate, to complement the influence of the overall economic climate (this would handle conditions where GDP growth was high, but where, for example following a GDP ‘trough’, investment confidence had not yet recovered), and

• some assumption had to be made, because of its central influence on the Industry’s employment costs (and so, inversely, on employment levels), about real compensation over the simulation period. The choice of the constant level assumed for the annual increase in average sector pay is explained, together with all the other input assumptions, in 9.3*.

Form of equation

• For any given set of input variables, there are different options for the structure of the model specification of dependence. The equation can, for example, be either a sum of scaled variables or can be multiplicative (without scaling coefficients), and can be linear (where the dependence on each input variable is assumed to depend directly on it) or non-linear, with the output depending, for example, on a power of the input variable. The logic behind the adoption of a ‘multiplicative’ model, rather than a ‘linear’ (sum of direct dependencies) equation of the form of the regression equation is presented above. It is important to note

• as with all input variables, it is possible to make simple changes to the model spreadsheet to explore the variations in forecast employment

levels that would result from adjustments to input values.

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that, as well as being particularly simple, this multiplicative form remains inherently linear, although because of the choice of the annual incremental approach, dependence is on the rates of change of the variables involved rather than directly on the variables themselves.

Table B4 shows the input variables finally selected and the form of the dependence on each.

Driver to be built into the model

Term used in model equation

Rate of ICT Innovation

((software investment as % of non-residential fixed capital formation) y+1/ (software investment as % of non-residential fixed capital formation) y )

Economic Climate

(1 + %real GDP growth) y+1

(Secondary Economic Climate factor – describing “Investment Climate”)

(1 + %growth in real Gross Private Non-Residential Fixed Capital Formation after controlling for GDP growth) y+1

Rate of off-shoring

(1 – % net loss of employment to off-shoring) y+1

Impact of remuneration increases

(1 + % increase in real compensation) y+1

Table B4: Model input variables and mathematical terms

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe B.5 Conclusion In summary, therefore, Table B5 summarises the strengths and weaknesses of the two model forms that could, in principle, be chosen for modelling purposes in this context:

Modelling Approach

+

-

Simple, annual incremental, ‘multiplicative’ model for demand estimation, followed by (‘manual’) supply and demand reconciliation of supply and demand flows

• Particularly easy for senior managers and policy-makers to relate to

• No need to find high enough quality data for regression to be successful

• Approach makes the most of the limited good datasets available

• Supply-demand

reconciliation must be performed ‘manually’ on year-by-year figures

• Less knowledge of (theoretical) mathematical properties of the model form

A traditional econometric regression model

• Supply and demand are automatically reconciled within the model

• A wide range of regression techniques and experience is available from econometrics

• Required datasets for successful regression on labour markets often not available

• Even proxies (for which some data is available) may not be acceptable to policy users

Table B5: Strengths and weaknesses of the modelling approaches

Overall, the difference between the two modelling approaches might best be summarised as:

• linear regression econometric “hypothesis-based” approach and

• “data-driven” approach (drawing on specific empirical hypotheses) It is true that data availability is always a potential problem, whichever approach is used, but the second approach starts from the desire to bring the most empirical evidence to bear in formulating policy questions, whereas the latter seeks data to test economic hypotheses. In terms of overall objectives, the economic theory approach is about trying better to understand how economic systems work: while the latter is about how to provide the best evidence base for policy and decision-making. It is to be hoped that future collaboration between labour economists and skills policy analysts can stimulate and develop improved understanding for both communities.

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Annex C:

The 2006 Thessaloniki Declaration

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EUROPEAN E-SKILLS 2006 CONFERENCE 5-6 October 2006, Thessaloniki, Greece

DECLARATION

The potential contribution of information and communication technology (ICT) to our economy and society in the long term remains huge. The success of the Lisbon strategy, the competitiveness of European industry and social cohesion are dependent on the effective use of ICT and the knowledge, skills, competences and inventiveness of the European workforce and its ICT practitioners; As ICT is developing rapidly and exponentially, e-skills need to be constantly updated. This is best achieved by regular learning and use while individuals are at work. In this context, elearning could play an important role; Industry and policy makers should be encouraged to act more decisively and consistently (despite short term hiccups due to business cycles or financial bubbles) regarding their strategies to promote the professionalism, the image and the attractiveness of ICT practitioners’ jobs and careers as well as to foster better employment conditions and perspectives; Efforts need to be made to improve co-operation between the public and the private sectors on a balanced and long term basis and to ensure a seamless framework linking basic e-skills training, vocational and higher education and professional development for the benefit of the workforce; It remains essential for the European Union to adopt a long term and consistent e-skills agenda to promote competitiveness, employability and workforce development and respond to global competitive pressure.

THE EUROPEAN E-SKILLS 2006 CONFERENCE: Recognises the contribution of the organisations which have steered the preparation of this event, notably CEDEFOP and leading ICT companies active within the eSCC and the ICT Task Force established by the European Commission on 6 June 2006;

Welcomes the report of the Working Group on skills and employability of the ICT Task Force and supports its analysis and recommendations;

Welcomes the Ministerial Declaration on e-inclusion adopted on 11 June 2006 in Riga;

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Invites the European Commission to develop in 2007 a long term agenda for improving “e-Skills for Competitiveness, Employability and Workforce development”; and an initiative on “e-Inclusion” in 2008 as indicated in the i2010 initiative;

Invites EU Institutions, Member States and stakeholders to work actively together to prepare and subsequently to implement a long term e-skills agenda in the spirit of the co-operation and dialogue initiated in the European e-Skills Forum;

Recognises that the way forward towards the widening and deepening of e-skills within the EU is through involvement of all actors from government, industry, social partners and academia in multi-stakeholder dialogue and partnerships for action;

Calls upon all relevant stakeholders to support the following actions and to include them in a long term e-skills agenda: IMPROVING THE AVAILABILITY OF E-SKILLS - Encourage the setting-up by the ICT industry of an Industry Leadership Group to facilitate e-

skills information and co-operation and pool resources to launch and further develop initiatives such as the “European Alliance on Skills for Employability” launched early 2006 by the eSCC6 and the development of industry-based strategies on human resources development to make ICT professions more attractive;

- Promote7 ICT practitioner education in a long term perspective and an innovative and worldwide environment and improve the integration of industry-based ICT curricula and certifications into formal education, with a focus on tertiary education and vocational training. When necessary and the openness is guaranteed, ICT industry training material in relevant technical aspects should be included in curricula and corresponding ICT industry certifications recognised;

- Develop8 new e-competence curriculum guidelines and standards to facilitate the mutual recognition of training, transparency of qualifications and credit transfer between formal, non formal and industry education and training;

- Establish and maintain a European e-Skills and Career portal, involving all relevant stakeholders, to promote transparency regarding different qualifications, improve mobility, and make ICT career pathways more attractive;

- Develop European quality criteria for e-skills training and certifications according to ICT workforce requirements and in a vendor neutral environment;

- Ensure compatibility of the EU-wide e-competence framework (to be developed in line with the European Qualifications Framework) with formal and non-formal ICT practitioner and user education and certifications and also with business and ICT competences required to implement best practice in the global economy;

- Consider new forms of attractive part-time and flexible working practices to attract ICT workers including women and mature professionals;

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- Research and promote the adoption of appropriate legal and financial frameworks for multi-stakeholder partnerships related to e-skills development;

- Increase public and private sector investment in human resources and, where appropriate, consider financial support and incentives related to ICT training that can be accessed by individuals throughout their career and as part of this process, also assess the effectiveness of existing provisions related to financial instruments9;

- Research and promote coherent policies related to the granting of immigration visas for e-skills workers;

EMPOWERING FUTURE GENERATIONS - Promote science, math and ICT, role models, ICT job profiles and career perspectives with

a special emphasis on young people;

- Organise awareness and information campaigns to provide parents, teachers and pupils with an accurate understanding of opportunities arising from an ICT education and the pursuit of a career as an ICT professional;

- Improve career advice and guidance opportunities in and around schools and provide better and more frequent training to career consultants;

- Improve teachers’ and trainers professional development to equip them with e-skills and promote the integration of ICT enabled learning in Member States’ education and training strategies to make ICT an effective and integrated part of teaching and learning;

- Promote best practice on multi-stakeholder partnerships which expose individuals and SMEs to entrepreneurial skills;

BOOSTING THE EMPLOYABILITY OF THE WORKFORCE - Encourage multi-stakeholder partnerships10 between leading providers of e-skills training

knowledge and resources and providers of wider business skills training and job placement support services in order to help connect trainees to new jobs;

- Investigate how public funding mechanisms can upscale and maximise the impact of successful multi-stakeholder initiatives11 in delivering e-skills training and certification; and in improving the employability of job seekers and low skilled workers in order to increase participation and to combat social exclusion;

- Remove barriers for funding education and training which stand in the way of schools, universities and training organisations offering ICT industry curricula and certification through which it is possible to develop both basic and advanced 'job-ready' eskills in the workforce12;

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- Develop pragmatic approaches to reducing the e-skills gap between larger organisations and SMEs, notably for smaller SMEs and the less ICT-oriented SME sectors;

- Develop digital literacy and competence actions tailored to the needs of groups at risk of exclusion, notably the unemployed, immigrants, people with low education levels, people with disabilities, the elderly and marginalised young people.

MAKING A GREATER AND BETTER USE OF E-LEARNING FOR THE LIFE LONG ACQUISITION OF SKILLS - Maintain and where appropriate increase support and investment in educating and training

employees of SMEs in both basic and professional e-skills and in ways to use ICT for learning, while promoting more generalised positive attitude towards learning at individual, team and organisational levels;

- Promote e-learning courses and brokerage mechanisms that support the exchange of online e-skills resources for ICT practitioners and the European workforce; and contribute to the development of a more dynamic and competitive market for e-learning products and services;

- Support the networking of e-learning and training centres in co-operation with the European Network of Living Labs13. These will facilitate piloting and validation processes and contribute to a better understanding of future e-skills needs;

- Monitor good practice across Europe for the training of SME employees using e-learning in order to promote the most successful e-learning solutions and business models;

- Formulate a vision and recommendations for ambitious e-learning policies and promote the adoption of clear policy targets notably in relation to the use by SME personnel of ICT and e-learning.

PROMOTING VISIBILITY AND MONITORING PROGRESS

- Analyse regularly the evolution of the supply and demand of e-skills in Europe and provide common standards for EU-wide statistics and foresight analyses relating to eskills;

- Monitor the positioning of the EU in the global economy and the impact of global sourcing on job profiles and occupations and support multi-stakeholder partnership efforts to develop a sustainable offshore outsourcing model across the EU;

- Review how EU programmes and funding instruments, in liaison with national and regional funding sources, might be used more efficiently to support the concrete actions described above, including both the dissemination of information as well as the adoption of good practice and as part of this process further promote the accessibility of all available funding instruments;

- Maintain a virtual e-skills community and produce a quarterly newsletter; and investigate how emerging Web 2.0 technologies and tools can help promote ICT training and careers to a new generation of “digital natives”;

- Organise a European e-Skills Conference every two years in partnership with stakeholders to discuss progress and the way forward (2008 and 2010).

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www.e-skills-conference.org

The European e-Skills Conference is organised by the European Commission in co-operation with CEDEFOP and in partnership with leading companies from the ICT Industry

(eSCC, Cisco Systems, CompTIA, ECDL Foundation, Microsoft, EXIN)

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http://www.e-skills-conference.org/


Annex D:

Summary of the ‘Rand Europe’ Report: The Supply and Demand of e-skills in Europe

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THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF e-SKILLS IN EUROPE

Rand Europe: September 2005

The report documents an in-depth study into the supply and demand of e-skills within the European Union, summarises current understanding of the state-of-play within 2004, in particular in relation to ICT Practitioner skills, and presents an analysis and proposed framework for building Foresight Scenarios in this area. The study’s approach is presented through the following steps: a review of existing supply and demand studies, expert interviews, and the development of a taxonomy of e-skills research; a presentation of different approaches to estimating e-skills supply and demand, and their advantages and disadvantages; an analysis of the situation in 2004 relating to the supply and the demand of e-skills in Europe, based on the most recent statistical data available; and an overview of recent future-oriented studies on e-skills on the basis of which a framework for conducting e-skills foresight studies is proposed. The study has found that there is comparatively very little consistent, reliable quantitative evidence available in relation to clarifying the factual situation of the supply and demand of e-skills at the European level. However, for the best understanding of supply and demand within these constraints, the report recommends combined use of the seven following complementary indicators, in particular in relation to ICT Practitioner skills: (1) Unemployment in e-skilled occupations; (2) Number of graduates in educational fields of relevance to e-skills; (3) Number of issued training certificates for training of more than a minimum amount of days; (4) Current employment in e-skilled occupations; (5) Unfilled or hard-to-fill job vacancies in e-skilled occupations; (6) Replacement demand; and (7) Replacement of jobs by off-shoring activities. Detailed recommendations are made of ways in which data gathering for these key indicators might be strengthened and improved, together with information on any current work being undertaken in that direction. A wide range of data is shown for the development over recent years of key relevant employment and education indicators for all Member States, both types of data provided by Eurostat, and these results allow a considerable amount of interpretation and comparison in support of e-skills policy analysis. The employment data, based on the occupation proxy for skills, is differentiated into IT Practitioner and the broader ICT Practitioner areas. The best evidence available confirms that there were, in 2004, no widespread significant shortages of ICT (or IT) Practitioner skills within the EU, although the growth in demand for skills for certain ICT Practitioner occupations (both computing professionals and optical and equipment operators showed considerable increase in 2004) was greater than for others (for example continuous decline since 1998 in the group of electrical and electronic equipment mechanics and fitters), and it also appears that employment was comparatively high in some of the new Member States (such as the Czech Republic, Latvia, and Malta). The under-representation of women in ICT Practitioner occupations (compared to men as well as to women in other occupations) continues to be an issue. There are some indications that this situation has changed in 2005, during which overall employment has begun to grow (Belgium, Spain), and notably in some Member States (Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, and Slovak Republic) In considering how best to undertake the estimating of future e-skill needs in Europe, the report lays the foundations for a consistent EU-level approach to the development of Foresight Scenarios. In particular, it explains how a foresight process can facilitate multi-actor policy analysis and policymaking: foresight brings together a range of relevant stakeholders each of whom can provide different and valuable insights on the future development of e-skills. Instead of attempting to “squeeze” these viewpoints into the same framework, a foresight process recognises differences of opinion and aims to find a common ground for decision making. To achieve adequately robust understanding, the possibility of structural changes needs to be addressed with the use of a set of scenarios. This analysis and discussion would need to be an ongoing process, with reviews increasingly possible of differences between previous forecasts and actual developments. Overall, the report provides a significant amount of important information on which future EU e-skills analysis and foresight development can be built.

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Annex E:

ICT Industry Employment Development in EU Member States

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ICT Industry Employment Development in EU Member States

The following charts show the development over time of employment levels within the Software and IT Services Sectors (NACE 72) of EU Member States over recent years, split into the core IT Practitioner occupations (ISCO 213 and 312) and all other occupations. The charts show the data for the EU-15 Member States (for which the Study mathematical model was able to be calibrated), followed by the estimates the New Member States. For countries where all or most of the relevant data fell below the threshold of statistical reliability no chart is shown. As indicated, the data on which the charts are based comes from the Eurostat holdings of Member State data from their national Labour Force Survey (or equivalent). The limitations of the quality of this data is explained in the Background Paper to this report, and some of the time series data-points in the following charts probably bear witness to those limitations. In particular it is known that that there are a number of ‘breaks in the time series’ (where some significant change* has occurred in the measuring process), and that the statistical reliability of such data is not so good for smaller countries. However, this (EULFS) data is far and away the most relevant and useful to a meaningful study of ICT Practitioner skills in the European Union, and – as indicated in Part 3 – there are both opportunities, and efforts underway, to begin to tackle some of the quality issues. The study consortium believes that, notwithstanding concerns about the data for certain years, these charts provide the most meaningful and useful data on employment in this sector currently available. Any reader with questions or concerns about any aspect of these charts is encouraged to:

• provide feedback to CEPIS on any concerns;

• where possible make contact with the (official) national statistical office involved to seek clarification.

CEPIS will continue to work with Eurostat and others to increase efforts to improve the quality of this data.

* in particular arising from transitions to a quarterly continuous survey and census revisions and implementation of new concepts. These breaks are indicated on the relevant charts, where known to Eurostat, by removal of the line for the year in which the break occurred.

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Austria: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Austrian LFS data)

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Belgium: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Belgian LFS data)

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Denmark: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Danish LFS data)

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Finland: Employment Levels in Software and IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Finnish data)

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France: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of French LFS Data)

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Germany: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of German LFS Data)

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Greece: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Greek LFS data)

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Ireland: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Irish LFS data)

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Italy: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Italian LFS data)

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(Relevant Luxembourg LFS data not generally statistically reliable)

The Netherlands: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Dutch LFS data)

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Portugal: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Portuguese Data)

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Spain: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Spanish LFS data)

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Sweden: Employment Levels in Software and IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Swedish LFS data)

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United Kingdom: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of UK data)

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New Member States

(Relevant Cyprus LFS data not generally statistically reliable)

Czech Republic: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Czech LFS data)

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TotalEmployment

Hungary: Employment Levels in Software and IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Hungarian LFS data - some statistical issues with 1996-1998 data)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Tota

l in

Empl

oym

ent (

'000

s)


OtherOccupations

TotalEmployment

(Relevant LFS data for Latvia, Lithuania and Malta not generally statistically reliable)

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Poland: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Polish LFS data - Statistical issues with ISCO 312 data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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l in

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oym

ent (

000s

)


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Poland: Quarterly Employment Levels in Software and UT Services Sector (NACE 72)

(Source: Eurostat Holdings of Polish LFS data - statistical issues with ISCO 312 data)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4

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l in

Empl

oym

ent (

000s

)


OtherOccupations

TotalEmployment

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Slovakia: Employment Levels in Software & IT Services Sector (NACE 72)(Source: Eusrostat Holdings of Slovakian LFS data - Statistical issues with early years and ISCO 312 data)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Tota

l in

Empl

oym

ent (

000s

) IT Practitioners(ISCO213+312)

OtherOccupations

TotalEmployment

(Relevant Slovenia LFS data not generally statistically reliable)

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Annex F:

Summaries of Recent ICT-related Foresight exercises

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Summaries of Recent ICT-related Foresight exercises

This Annex tracks information on ICT-related Foresight exercises, drawing mainly on the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN) database, which can be conveniently searched and catalogued. Numerous projects recorded there have some ICT component, and this Annex examines the most important of these: those with more detailed documentation (some are inadequately covered and have thus been omitted) and where a strong ICT element is apparent in the summary. The document begins with North American studies; then proceeds through studies conducted at the EU level, to those conducted within the EU.

1 and 2. The global course of the information revolution: Technological Trends (RAND, 2004)14 The global course of the information revolution: recurring themes and regional variations (RAND, 2003)15

The United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) undertook a systematic research and development program on broad, cross-cutting issues for the next millennium; one of these “strategic estimates” focuses on developing a better understanding of the future course of the information revolution throughout the world over the next 10-20 years. Rand led and completed two projects. The first project concentrated on technical trends in the information revolution, focusing in particular on the resulting new artefacts and services that might become widespread during the next 20 years. Rand convened an international conference in Washington DC in November 1999. focusing on the political/governmental, business/financial, and social/cultural dimensions of the information revolution, as they are unfolding in different areas of the world. The proceedings of that conference were published in Hundley et al (2000). Participants saw a convergence of voice and data communications and a quantum jump in bandwidth during the next two decades, along with limited machine translation. A multitude of diverse, powerful, inexpensive sensors and devices capable of limited-distance wireless communications will also come onto the market. Computing and information systems will become much more ubiquitous, with convergence of wireless telephones, voice and e-mail messaging, and smart appliances. A likely shift in business emphasis from products to services will have an impact in such areas as health care, education, entertainment, and supply-chain management. Participants also discussed individual and societal tensions that could arise from these developments, such as battles between advocates of “open” and “closed” worlds of protocols and standards, and the threats to intellectual property rights and to individual privacy. In the second study, Rand argues that the North American (i.e., U.S. and Canadian) economies and societies are well positioned to meet the challenges of the information revolution. They have well-developed physical infrastructures and human capital; economies and societies that are generally receptive to change; governments that provide an environment generally hospitable to business developments; legal regimes with good intellectual property protection; well-established contract and laws; and strong protections for freedom of expression; and innovative and efficient capital 14 Source: http://www.rand.org/publications/CF/CF157/Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=38315 Source: http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1680/ Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=363

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http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=383

http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1680/



markets with well developed venture capital communities. Both are nations of immigrants that attract energetic, talented, IT-trained people from all over the world. North America will exploit these advantages to continue in the vanguard of the information revolution. The dot-com crash and the ‘telecomms. sector implosion’ may slow the pace of IT-related developments in North America, but only temporarily. Further, North America will, in general, deal well with the stresses generated by the information revolution.

3 The Roadmap for the revitalization of High-End Computing (CRA, 2003)16

Based on the projects, the project’s eight working groups developed a set of key findings and recommendations to advance the state of high-end computing in the United States. The common theme throughout these recommendations is the need for sustained investment in research, development, and system acquisition. This sustained approach also requires deep collaboration among academic researchers, government laboratories, industrial laboratories, and computer vendors. Simply put, short-term strategies and one-time crash programs are unlikely to develop the technology pipelines and new approaches required to realise the ‘peta-scale’ computing systems needed by a range of scientific, defense, and national security applications. Rather, multiple cycles of advanced research and development, followed by large-scale prototyping and product development, will be required to develop systems that can consistently achieve a high fraction of their peak performance on critical applications, while also being easier to program and operate reliably.

4 The Future of the Internet (Princeton SRA, 2005)17

Technology experts and scholars evaluated where the network is headed in the next ten years, with major conclusions being that:

- A broad-ranging survey of technology leaders, scholars, industry officials, and interested members of the public finds that most experts expect attacks on the network infrastructure in the coming decade. Some argue that serious assaults on the internet infrastructure will become a regular part of life.

- The internet will be more deeply integrated in our physical environments and high-speed connections will proliferate – with mixed results.

- In the emerging era of the blog, experts believe the internet will bring yet more dramatic change to the news and publishing worlds. They predict the least amount of change to religion.

- Experts are both in awe and in frustration about the state of the internet. They celebrate search technology, peer-to-peer networks, and blogs; they bemoan institutions that have been slow to change.

- These survey results and written commentary from experts add to a growing database of predictions and analysis from trendsetters about the impact of the internet.

16 Source: http://www.cra.org/reports/supercomputing.pdf Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=414 17 Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Future_of_Internet.pdfDownload: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=975 And Fox, Susannah, Janna Quitney Anderson, and Lee Rainie. The Future of the Internet. Washington, DC: Pew Internet & American Life Project, January 9, 2005

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http://www.cra.org/reports/supercomputing.pdf


http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Future_of_Internet.pdf



5 Changing Communication Strategies (Institute for the Future (IFF), 2003)18

A report on the status of the communications market as a whole and the role e-mail can play in that market as it evolves. The study looked at 1) the likely discontinuities influencing the wider communications industry over the next decade and 2) changing consumer behaviour and preferences around their use of commercial information. A series of interviews with business leaders, academics and journalists were accompanied by a nationally representative household survey in the United States. Among highlights of the exercise were:

• The main driver of the evolving communications market is the rate at which consumers come to use information and the importance they place on information that they receive by means of a variety of channels, both old and new;

• The pace of change is driven by new technologies, and the rate of introduction of the new technologies is driven by investment;

• Despite a slowdown in investment, a number of new technologies promise to change business-to-consumer communications in the next decade;

• The combination of new technologies and more active consumers are leading businesses to rethink their strategies for communicating with consumers across the whole spectrum of communications, from mass messaging to personalised content;

• The shifts in communication strategies are opening significant opportunities for existing players to play new roles in business-to-consumer communications and for new players to emerge;

• Mail is an older form of communication in a world where digital information moves more quickly and in greater volume; still, mail has unique characteristics that open possibilities for new roles for those who want to use mail effectively in the digital age.

6 Industrial Wireless Technology for the 21st Century (Energetics, 2004)19

Wireless sensor systems are seen as having the potential to revolutionise industrial processing and help industry meet the demands of increased competitiveness. Although wireless technology has taken a major leap forward, applications to industrial sensor systems must meet some distinctly different challenges:

- Industrial Wireless Sensor Vision: “Industrial wireless technology will be robust, reliable, cost-efficient, totally secure, and in many cases, integral to the measurement device. It will be the obvious choice for monitoring and controlling industrial processes to optimize resource efficiency and productivity.”

- Through design improvements, wireless sensor systems of the future will require less power and therefore less maintenance (e.g., battery replacement) than today’s systems. By 2010, costs associated with operating and maintaining these systems (sensing and transmission) will decrease by 90 percent. In the long term, systems will be self-powering, capturing energy (e.g., thermal, solar, or vibrational energy) from the industrial environment and virtually eliminating power maintenance activities and related costs.

18 Source: http://www.iftf.org/docs/SR-785_B_ChangingCommStrategies.pdf Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=334 19 Source: http://www.energetics.com/pdfs/technologies_processes/wireless.pdf Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=408

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- Wireless systems of the future will reliably perform mission-critical monitoring and control functions. Maintenance requirements for these systems will be minimal, whether for battery replacement, verification of sensor calibration, or any other activity necessary to sustain system performance. The mean time between attention (MTBA) will at least equal the period between scheduled downtimes for the maintenance of other production equipment. In short, wireless systems will not upset production or cause a shutdown.

- Future wireless systems will operate with a non-proprietary open architecture infrastructure that will facilitate processing and transmission of data to and from sensors and controllers produced by different companies. Systems will be capable of handling output from sensors of all types, including new and already-in-place (legacy) sensors.

- Over the next decade, technological advances and economic drivers will move wireless sensor systems onto a track of steadily increasing performance and declining costs. Inexpensive, disposable, “peel and stick” sensors with “plug and play” compatibility will lead the way for sensor networks to operate on “Moore’s Law” for the first time. Continued advances will gradually open the door for sensors further up the complexity continuum to migrate toward this model.

- Wireless system components of the future should be able to recognise each other and organise themselves to carry out effective, efficient, and secure communications, even on an ad hoc basis. These smart, distributed, heterogeneous computing devices should be nearly self-sustaining. Demands on the user will be minimal as the systems become self-configuring, self-calibrating, self-identifying, and self-reorganizing for optimal network performance and fault recovery. Sensor nodes will also be designed to be self-locating to ease bookkeeping requirements and associated costs.

- Growing use of industrial wireless technology will place heavy demand on the narrow bandwidth currently available. Efficient use of the bandwidth is imperative to reduce interference and avoid the resulting increase in power use. System developers will need to embrace a strategy of bandwidth conservation to avoid higher power requirements and associated costs. They will use embedded intelligence to reduce transmission loads where feasible and use the minimum amount of power to maintain effective communications.

- Tailored to Industrial Environments: Robust wireless systems will reliably perform mission-critical tasks in harsh industrial environments

A number of studies with no English report20 or limited ICT focus21 were also reviewed, but do not require summary here.

20 No English version located: 1. Visions of a wireless information society (AAS-ICE, 1999) Source: http://www.iwe.oeaw.ac.at/ 2. Breakthrough to the Future with the Information Society in the Liege Region (DGTRE, 1997) Source: http://www.fasil.be/ 3. Future scenarios for the Information Society in the Catalan Region (PPE, 2000) Source: http://www10.gencat.net/dursi/pdf/si/documents/quaderns/Q3escenaris/Q3_escenaris.pdf Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=5814. Information and Communication Technologies (Consortium, 2002) Source: http://www.opti.org/ Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=718 5. TICarm - ICTs in the region of Murcia (OPTI, 2004) Source: http://www.carm.es/ceii/ Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=182 6. ICT at home: trends in ICT in the home environment at 2010 (TU Delft, 2000) Source: http://www.toekomstverkenning.nl/dynamic/search.asp Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=13557. The future of electronic communication (MinistEcon, 2005) Source: http://appz.ez.nl/publicaties/pdfs/05TP12.pdf Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=1487 21 Not directly ICT-related: 1. The Northern Ireland Foresight eBusiness Report (FNI, 2003) Source: http://www.foresightni.com/ Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=3302. Digital Delivery in Distribution and Logistics (2005, Victoria Univ Melbourne) Source: http://www.efmn.info/data/stats.shtml?s=5213196B-7D6A30214104-7CD3&var1=pagelist&var2=all&var3=ini#Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=42

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http://www.iwe.oeaw.ac.at/

http://www.fasil.be/

http://www10.gencat.net/dursi/pdf/si/documents/quaderns/Q3escenaris/Q3_escenaris.pdf


http://www.opti.org/


http://www.carm.es/ceii/


http://www.toekomstverkenning.nl/dynamic/search.asp


http://appz.ez.nl/publicaties/pdfs/05TP12.pdf


http://www.foresightni.com/


http://www.efmn.info/data/stats.shtml?s=5213196B-7D6A30214104-7CD3&var1=pagelist&var2=all&var3=ini




7 Scenarios for Ambient Technology 2010 (Consortium, 2001)22

To help further develop a better understanding of the implications of an Ambient Intelligence (AmI) landscape a scenario development exercise was launched. The results are presented as four scenarios that are used to identify key ‘drivers’ (technological, socio-economic and political), baselines, uncertainties, constraints, opportunities and potential points of bifurcation or convergence surrounding European work. The four scenarios were constructed to provide ‘food for thought’ about longer-term developments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Time horizons are proposed for technologies, applications, services and products to arrive on the market around 2010. The four AmI Scenarios provide a glimpse into potential futures and are not based on clearly distinct alternative trajectories. Rather they are complementary and sketch out different design emphases and pathways towards Ambient Intelligence. The main structuring differentials between the scenarios are:

- Economic and personal efficiency versus sociability/humanistic drivers (goals);

- Communal versus individual as the user orientation driver (actors). These two axes, and the scenarios they produce, provide a structure that isolates some of the main features and alternative development paths for Ambient Intelligence.

- Maria Road Warrior: is a scenario that could be achieved relatively early. The technological and socioeconomic changes are relatively incremental build outs of existing approaches. The key barriers appear to be the establishment of interoperating hierarchies of agents. The lead markets for AmI here are business sector demands (which tend to be more efficiency orientated and less price-sensitive). No large changes in behaviour are assumed.

- Dimitrios and the Digital-Me (D-Me) is also nearer term. It offers an alternative mode of use of personalised ambience. The emphasis is on play and social interaction rather than ‘efficiency’. Lead markets for AmI may emerge first amongst ‘alternative or youth cultures.’ The changes in behaviour relate mainly to the willingness to reveal (or disguise) personality on-line. Price could be a barrier to a breakthrough to a mass market.

- Carmen: traffic, sustainability and commerce: is further out on the time horizon than the two ‘individual’ scenarios not so much due to technological barriers as because it implies major infrastructural developments (i.e. highly developed networks of inter-operating sensor systems and dynamic database management systems). It describes an ambient landscape in which the joint flows of bits and atoms are optimised to create a more sustainable urban system. It also makes significant assumptions about changes in public behaviour such as accepting ride shares and traffic management systems.

- Annette and Solomon in the ambient for social learning: is probably the furthest out in terms of time as it has high demands both from a technological and socio-economic viewpoint. It implies significant technical developments such as high ‘emotional bandwidth’ for shared presence and visualisation technologies, or breakthroughs in computer supported pedagogic techniques. In addition, the scenario presents a challenging social vision of AmI in the service of fostering community life through shared interests.

22 Source: http://www.cordis.lu/ist/istag.htm Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=494

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8 The Future Impact of ICTs on Environmental Sustainability (2004)23

This project investigates the possible effects of ICT on a set of environmental indicators in 2020, by a combination of qualitative scenario-building and quantitative modelling. The general conclusion was that the impact of ICT on the environment is roughly between -20 and +30 %. There are significant opportunities for improving environmental sustainability through ICTs. ICT should accordingly be taken into account by environmental policies in order to ensure that ICT applications make a positive contribution to environmental outcomes, and, at the same time, to suppress rebound effects. There are significant opportunities for improving environmental sustainability through ICTs, which can rationalise energy management in housing (or facilities), make passenger and freight transport more efficient, and enable a product-to-service shift across the economy. The study argued for a holistic approach, encompassing the following areas:

- e-materialisation: the shift from products to services, dematerialisation and rematerialisation;

- Intelligent transport systems’ impact on increasing transport performance and promoting a shift from the use of the private car to public transport;

- ICT equipment’s electricity consumption in the domestic and tertiary sector;

- efficiency in electricity generation and distribution;

- ICT-supported facility for the management of energy savings;

- the use of a virtual utility to promote renewable energy and combined heat and power;

- ICT-supported systems for recovery and recycling of municipal solid waste in general and waste from electrical and electronic equipment in particular.

9 eHealth in the Context of a European Ageing Society: A Prospective Study (VDI, 2004)24

The report explores an evolving European vision for ICT applications in the healthcare sector. eHealth is seen as an empowering tool for active independent living by older people in an enlarged European Union. It analyses the potential eHealth requirements in an enlarged and ageing EU, and compares the "desired situation" in Europe in 2010 with the present status quo of available eHealth applications and practice in order to define European strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Output: The exercise maps the following challenges:

• Stimulate and support exploitation and technology transfer through Research, Technology and Development (RTD) programmes and innovation/enterprise support programmes

• Encourage and support RTD and product/service development for the older market by European industry

• Promote industry awareness, interest and activity though demonstration of the business-case and regulatory actions where appropriate

23 Source: http://www.jrc.es/home/pages/detail.cfm?prs=1208 Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=107 24 Source: http://www.jrc.es/home/pages/detail.cfm?prs=1207 Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=106

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• Raise awareness across Europe and encourage all Member States to follow the good example

• Encourage service providers to develop and deliver general-purpose, care-related and accessible services for older subscribers

• Target initiatives and resources towards countries, regions and groups lagging behind

• Encourage adoption of good practice and harmonisation, where appropriate, of financial support mechanisms under social protection, universal service and assistive technology delivery systems

• Consider the implementation of direct regulatory requirements anti-discrimination, public procurement, and/or universal service frameworks

• Provide market information and other support to stimulate industry attention and activity.

• Encourage and provide supports for exploitation and technology transfer under RTD and enterprise/innovation programmes

• Encourage adoption of good practice and harmonisation, where appropriate, of assistive technology delivery systems

• Develop measures to open up the Member State markets for assistive technology supply and make them more efficient and competitive

• Provide information and support to encourage industry to enter the health and social care markets of other Member States

• Provide support to encourage the provision of all key online information services in all European languages

• Promote and support RTD, technology transfer, internal market openness and global market penetration for European industry in care-related and accessibility-related products and services

• Mobilise and support European industry to become competitive in the European and global markets

• Support research, RTD and technology utilisation to improve workability employability of older people and cost-effective care for those who need it.

10 EUFORIA - European Knowledge Society Foresight (Consortium, 2003)25

The European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions has undertaken a foresight project (Euforia) on the ‘European Knowledge Society and its influence on living conditions, working conditions and industrial relations’. Euforia is also linked to the Lisbon objectives for the EU to become ‘the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy, capable of sustained economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion.’

The EUFORIA project involved study of the emerging Knowledge Society in Europe, with indicator analysis and literature review complemented by a Delphi survey, cross-national workshop, and scenario workshops in three countries (Finland, Germany and Greece). The cross-national workshop identified 15 key drivers of the Knowledge Society, grouped into major categories below:

25 Source: http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/reports.htm Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=521

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• • •

• • •

• • •

•

•

•

• •

•

Issues related to demographic change:

Challenges for social security and public health care

Growing heterogeneity in family forms

Increasing ageing society intensified especially by EU Enlargement

Governance, the state and the EU: Enlargement of EU to 25+ and even more

Evolution of democracy in an E-Government Environment

Globalisation: Development of Global Governance and emergence of local interests increases complexity of interactions

Environment-related topics: Changing political priorities, e.g. sustainability

Growing Importance of Environmental Education

Increasing rate of climate change and global warming

New Technology and related topics: Continuing increases in all aspects of ICT performance (e.g. wireless connectivity, storage, size)

Widespread development and diffusion of new methods for producing, locating, sharing and managing knowledge for individuals and organisations

Wide application of new technologies in public services with wide implications – for health, education (but also privacy concerns)

Decreasing confidence of (e-) transactions and data protection

More demand for low skill services but decreasing supply

Cultural change: Increasing degree of artificial environment – preference to spend leisure time in e.g. theme parks, virtual reality entertainment, etc. rather than natural environments

The workshop examined which drivers had most influence on a range of “impacts” of interest to the sponsoring body (the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions). The drivers with most influence were (in order of degree of impact): Increasing ageing society intensified especially by EU Enlargement; Widespread development and diffusion of new methods for producing, locating, sharing and managing knowledge for individuals and organisations; More demand for low skill services (but decreasing supply); Enlargement of EU to 25+ and even more; Challenges for social security and public health care; and Continuing increases in all aspects of ICT performance (e.g. wireless connectivity, storage, size).

Source: D Loveridge and I Miles, with Michael Keenan, Rafael Popper & Duncan Thomas 2004 European Knowledge Society Foresight: The EUFORIA Project Synthesis Report European Foundation, Dublin

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe 11 FISTERA - Delphi Information Society Technologies (Consortium, 2001)26

FISTERA was an investigation of ICT futures undertaken by a consortium of five research groups (plus a number of collaborators), led by the EU’s Institute for Prospective Technology Studies (IPTS). The study involved both a review of existing scenario studies (Rafael Popper, Ian Miles, Lawrence Green and Kieron Flanagan (2004) Information Society Technologies Futures Forum: Overview of selected European IST scenario reports – WP4 First Scenario Synthesis Report) and its own scenario analyses (cf Ramon Compañó et al 2006 Foresight on Information Society Technologies for the European Research Area (Fistera): Key Findings Seville, IPTS) In preparation for FISTERA’s own scenario analyses, the review of scenario studies considered a number of existing ICT Scenario studies in depth, namely: those from the EUFORIA; STAR; SEAMATE; ISTAG (AmI) ; and FLOWS projects – with some attention to earlier studies including those of the UN Economic and Social Council and the FAST programme. The review of studies provided material to be used in FISTERA work, including a list of drivers that represented differentiating or uncertain factors identified in the earlier studies. 10 driving forces were seen as liable to shape the future Information Society in Europe. These were related to STEEP categories.

1. Soc Relationships & communication

A major driving force is the use of IST to mediate interpersonal relationships in work and leisure, and for individuals to interact with service providers of all kinds. The demand for such applications will continue to shape the evolution of IST itself, organisations using it, and patterns of social interaction more generally.

2. Soc Aging population & health

There are growing demands for health- and elder-care, associated with demographic change and the emergence of new medical and medicalised problems, and rapid development in biosciences and related fields. Again, IST applications have much to contribute here, and this will shape IST R&D (e.g. telemedicine, health monitoring, biosensors) and the provision of care and self-care facilities.

3. Soc Cultural pluralism

EU and ongoing migration is leading to quantitative and qualitative change in linguistic, cultural and other features of the EU. As well as increasing lifestyle differentiation and socio-political expectations, these developments will impact upon access to and uses of IST and services applying it.

4. Soc Community learning & planning processes

The knowledge society implies informed citizens and consumers, not just as (atomised) individuals but also as members of groups in civil society. Going beyond use of IST in communications and relationships, this driver implies reconfiguration of relationships between social groups and political and economic organisation to shape social action and create social memories and other forms of social capital.

5. Tec Miniaturisation of communication devices

IST contains its own drivers, in that competition between research groups and firms continues to generate ever more capable components and systems. The long-established trend of miniaturisation (Moore’s law, etc.) seems set to continue, and even were it to slow there is still much scope for smaller, faster and more powerful IST devices to be applied to all areas of social and economic activity. These opportunities will be seized in one form or other.

26 Source: http://fistera.jrc.es/docs/RP_The_FISTERA_Delphi.pdf Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=1014

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6. Tec Interconnectivity & systems integration

Related to the above development, a major shift in recent years has been the move to more pervasive networking of IST devices. Integration and interconnectivity of devices, and interoperability of systems and services, facilitates numerous applications, notably moves towards AmI-type uses of IST.

7. Eco Evolution of trade and economic affairs

Growth of markets, extension of the international division of labour and search for new products has been very much driven by globalisation, and one major uncertainty is whether this trend will be undermined by political pressures or other factors (such as economic instability generated by business cycles or financial crises). IST prices and competition – and applications - will be shaped by such factors. For instance, the extent of “off-shoring” and the orientation to developing country markets would be very contingent on the evolution of this driver.

8. Env Environment & Sustainability

The development of global environmental concerns is highly unpredictable, with climate change potentially forcing considerable adaptation upon EU countries, and efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions likely to shape much policy for technology, production and consumption patterns. Other environmental problems – in the built environmental and well as in nature and agriculture – also have to be considered – it is likely that links between pollutants and human health problems will be established in coming years, leading to major challenges. While many of these will relate to chemicals, some may relate to IST (e.g. electronic signals?). In any case, IST will have an important role to play in creating more sustainable societies, through emissions control, sensors, etc.

9. Pol Governmental efficiency

Governments are under widespread pressure to be more open (questions of new governance structures) but also to improve the efficiency of public administration and services, to reform regulations, and so on. IST – despite recurrent problems in large public sector projects - is seen as an important tool for improving efficiency, effectiveness, and ultimately democratic participation. Demands from government, businesses and civil society will shape IST use and the functioning of states.

10. Pol Security concerns

Security issues are now seen as a continuing and prominent concern. The challenges of terrorism (from cults and internal dissent as well as from external state and nonstate sources) are substantial ones, both impacting upon IST systems – whose vulnerability to accident and hacking has long been a subject of concern – and possibly finding (partial) solutions in some IST applications. As well as large-scale incidents threatening network security, integrity and stability, there are more “localised” concerns surrounding fraud, identity theft, and other issues undermining confidence in IST systems.

Discussion in the FISTERA project team suggested that Mobility should be added as a further driving force. Additionally, the scenario review led to specification of a number of “Challenges” that would have to be confronted – and again, the way in which they were dealt with could shape the Information Society in different ways. Thus the challenges may be seen as drivers in disguise – the need to overcome a challenge may well be considered to be a driver (viz “security” above, which is effectively recapitulated below). Five challenges were noted as featuring prominently in the scenario studies reviewed. These represent serious issues that are liable to constrain the future levels and styles of use of ICTs in European society.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe Privacy & trust

New generations of IST, with capacity to locate and identify people so as to tailor services to them raise ever more challenging issues of personal privacy. Who can have access to what data for what purposes, and how is this to be transparent? It is necessary to support trust with appropriate systems and processes, though inevitably there are questions of establishing trust between individuals and organisations that go beyond technical issues. (Many other issues arise in this context, including authenticity/authentification which involves long-term accessibility and physical and intellectual integrity of digital objects as well as the preservation and identification of personal identities)

Reliability & robustness

People may be reluctant to entrust not just personal data, but also operational control, to systems that may be vulnerable to outages, failures, mistakes of whatever provenance (viruses, hacker attacks, natural disasters or EMC interference from other systems). The increased use of electronic systems requires more efficient content-filtering and anti-spam security systems in organizations and businesses of all sizes.

Ethics In the last few years information society technologies have provided a space for carrying out electronic activities that traditionally would have required face-to-face interaction (i.e. shopping, data and knowledge exchange, etc). One of the main challenges for the emerging information society is the ethical use of technology for managing environments, personal relations, identities and content (i.e. protecting vulnerable people from being manipulated or seduced by pornography).

Uneven Access to Finance and Information Resources

Digital divides are liable to persist and develop in new forms with successive generations of IST. Financing “universal access” across social groups, regions, firms of different sizes, etc. is liable to prove problematic, yet this would help establish wider markets and support SMEs and wide-flung communities. The latter would also provide arguably important sources of further innovation in their own right.

Social innovation: IST literacy and capabilities

A major challenge is organisational modernisation to complement and make effective use of new IST, and creative solutions to all kinds of social problems that cannot just be made to disappear by applying standard IST solutions to them. Social creativity, informed by IST skills of all kinds, is required in organisations of all sorts and in civil society. Without this, the productivity and quality of life potentials of new IST will remain severely restricted.

A somewhat different summary of “drivers” was presented in the S2004 Synthesis report of the project, which formed the basis for subsequent work. (Ramon Compañó, Corina Pascu, & Jean-Claude Burgelman 2004, Key Factors Driving The Future Information Society In The European Research Area: the FISTERA synthesis report) This listed the following:

o aging population and implications for health applications;

o the maintenance of languages, cultures and life styles in an enlarged Europe;

o using novel ways of community learning and knowledge sharing;

o increasing demand for personal mobility;

o the demand for improved public services;

o increasing requirements for personal privacy and trust;

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o assuring ICT service security and robustness;

o complying with increasing “bottom line” ethical requests;

o bridging the digital divide;

o building ICT-related skills allowing social innovation (supporting ICT use and employing ICTs);

o increasing demand for system integration and interconnection;

o ongoing globalization of services and business;

o enhanced awareness of environmental issues and sustainable growth;

o ICT-based applications for enhanced security. When it came to developing scenarios for FISTERA, the decision was taken not to base alternative scenarios directly upon any of these drivers and challenges. They were used in Delphi and workshop studies as dimensions in terms of which expectations and alternatives could be explored. For FISTERA itself, two areas of uncertainty were identified as key features around which to construct multiple scenarios:

1. European competitive performance The two poles are: (a) EU overall attains leadership in many areas of IST, becoming a substantial competitor to the US and other regions in production and export of hardware, software and services. (b) EU overall lags in most areas of IST, only rarely becoming a serious competitor to the US and other regions in production and export of hardware, software and services.

2. European internal techno economic heterogeneity. The two poles are: (a) Variation across EU countries/regions in techno-economic performance intensified, with differences between cities/regions/countries being even more marked. (b) Variation across EU countries/regions in techno economic performance decreases, with differences between cities/regions/countries being substantially reduced.

These were used to build four profiles that were elaborated in subsequent scenario workshops. The work also drew upon analyses of key technological issues and trajectories determined from review of national Foresight studies, and from deskwork on technological development (WP1 and WP3 of the study, respectively). It is perhaps worth noting that the review of national ICT Foresight studies was summarised in the 2004 Synthesis Report as having concluded that

“Generally speaking, national foresight exercises are meant to identify visions, and particular strengths, and weaknesses that may result in useful recommendations for the particular country concerned…. national foresight reports contain little on emerging key technologies or technology trajectories….most of the studies limit themselves to identifying subjects worthy of support at the national level only….the scenarios resulting from the process are often not particularly technology specific… national foresight exercises do not generally cover the whole chain from technology assessment to assessment of technology’s impact on society and offer limited value for conclusions on the EU as a whole.”

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12 & 13 FISTERA - Future Prospects in Poland - Scenarios for the Development of the Knowledge Society in Poland (P&BF, 2005)27 FISTERA - Future Prospects in Romania - Scenarios for the Development of the Knowledge Society in Romania (Effective Decision, 2005)28

The first study in the context of the FISTERA project examined prospects for the knowledge-based society in Poland. Eight major elements, factors and drivers were noted:

- The population and its structure according to age, sex, education, welfare, relation to the labour market, professional background, psychological characteristics influencing attitudes towards IT and innovation in general;

- IT (and overall) education system;

- R&D sector producing and consuming IT;

- IT sector (industry and services);

- Legal system and policies governing the production, trade, supply, and use of IT as well as migration and social policies influencing the IST HR development and availability;

- IT at use by the population and the industry, including the IT infrastructure, consumer IT and telecommunications;

- Relating to the other sectors of Polish economy: their IST absorption capacity, overall GDP growth and sustainability of country’s economical system;

- Relating to the outer IS & IT world: close EU neighbours, EU-25, FDI, most relevant IT

- Non-EU foreign partners, and global IS society. The second study focused on Romania, and used various methods, including Delphi and SWOT analysis.

14 Estonian eVikings (2002)29

This elaborates a report based on the world Information Society Technology Foresights and possible development scenarios for the Estonian RTD covering deeply the key areas relevant for Estonia. Some possible future scenarios were elaborated:

a. Several flagships that currently have ICT manufacturing in Estonia are also expanding their manufacturing activities in China and other low-cost regions. It is very probable that in the long run, as they face stronger and stronger cost-based competition, they will be forced to look for cheaper production areas outside Estonia.

b. Ambient Intelligence (AmI) is a vision of the Information Society that puts emphasis on

greater user-friendliness, more efficient services support, user-empowerment, and support for human interactions. It is expected to be a reality by 2010. Just as Estonian companies have made an impressive success of the application of new technologies in some fields (banking, government) and in the development of intelligent user-friendly interfaces (for

27 Source: http://fistera.jrc.es/docs/PolandKBSProspects-FISTERA.pdfDownload: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=912 28 Source: http://fistera.jrc.es/docs/Future%20Prospects%20in%20Romania.pdfDownload: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=913 29 Source: http://www.esis.ee/eVikings/ Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=491

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example in the fields of mobile telecommunications, e-health applications); they could be equally successful in the realisation of the “AmI Space”.

c. A further boost to productivity could come from the clustering of software and, to some

extent, of ICT manufacturing industries with other branches of industry, although the currently low level of R&D investment by Estonian enterprises is a possible threat.

d. Continuous modernization of the public sector and innovations in the services field will

probably act as incentives for innovation in the ICT industry.

15 eFORESEE Malta - ICT & Education Pilot (MCST, 2001)30

Three scenarios were generated:

a) business as usual (surprise-free, best guess) c) onwards and upwards (successful mastery of current trends, do better) d) visionary/ paradigm shift (alternative directions).

The drivers are (according to relative importance within Maltese Context): Governance, Social/ Cultural, Education System (and research), Industry/ Economic, Links to Europe and the Mediterranean Region, Human Resources, Technology, Infrastructure and Environment. Note that the scenarios used here are similar to those developed in national teams in the EUFORIA project.

16 Pervasive Computing Foresight (CPC, 2004)31

The Danish initiative involved three foresight rounds each of duration 1-1/2 years. The first round focused on Pervasive Computing. It consisted of (i) an analysis of the pervasive computing phenomenon, (ii) involvement of experts in comprehensive discussions, (iii) development of scenarios, (iv) analysis of business potentials, (v) a “reality check” of the analyses in focus groups consisting of business and consumer representatives. Four scenarios were developed, distinguishable from each other along two dimensions: A) Policy-driven vs. Market-driven and B) Technology-focus vs. Service-focus (societal needs). The four scenarios are: 1) “Big is beautiful” where the development is driven by the largest companies. 2) “Icebreaker” where the development is driven by political decisions on pervasive computing in the Danish health care system and by subsequent public-private co-operation, 3) “Specialist” where development is driven by technological specialists and where pervasive computing does not achieve a public breakthrough, and 4) “Free play” where development is driven by improvisation and innovation against a background of a demand for pervasive computing services and research and development in design and entertainment.32

30 Source: http://www.eforesee.info/ Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=9031 Source: http://www.efmn.info/data/stats.shtml?s=5213196B-7D6A30214104-7CD3&var1=pagelist&var2=all&var3=ini# Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=479 32 The foresight activity recommendations serve as input to decision-makers in the shaping of future Danish research fund allocations. The foresight activity was disseminated through a number of national and regional workshops, each focussing on a separate aspect of pervasive computing (Health Care, Buildings, Textiles). The Ministry of Science considers the foresight activity a success insofar as they created a common framework for discussion and forced a new realism onto the scenarios: a tool to engage relevant actors in forward-looking activities and to think about the future in a structured way. The discussion afterwards focused on the lessons to be learnt from the different rounds.

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17 UK National Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (OST, 2006)33

The Foresight Project on Intelligent Infrastructure Systems explores the implications of science and technology over the next 50 years for the design and implementation of intelligent infrastructure systems that are robust, sustainable and safe. Transport infrastructure will change radically over the next 50 years. Scientific and technological developments will change what we define as infrastructure – not only what we travel on, but the vehicles we travel in and the information we have about the system. Intelligent infrastructure will only deliver the benefits we desire if we invest at four levels: (i) As we build new infrastructure we must build the sensor networks to allow us to monitor in real time what is happening, to inform the user. We would no longer need to guess the best route. (ii) We need to build intelligence into the infrastructure. We need an infrastructure that self-adapts to the needs of the users a world in which the bus waits for us rather than the other way around. (iii) The amount we need to move is determined by the spatial spread of the places we need to get to. We need a new philosophy and delivery in urban design to cut out unnecessary distance from our journeys, to ensure our communities, and the environment, thrive. (iv) We also must support intelligent use of the infrastructure. In the past we have used reductions in the cost of travel to travel further. We need to ensure that costs are built into travel so that as a society we choose patterns of movement that are sustainable.

18 The Foresight eBusiness Report (NIFSC, 2002)34

The Northern Ireland Foresight programme highlighted the influence of ICT in all sectors of industry, and given the development of eCommerce/eBusiness to the point where it is a tool which most business can use to advantage, a later phase of Regional Foresight sought to examine this. Conclusions included:

- eCommerce is growing rapidly and is becoming a requirement for companies if they wish to do business either with large business customers or with the public sector.

- Consumers will increasingly go online using a range of devices (PC, other devices in particular the digital television set, mobile online devices using third generation networks, with far greater bandwidth).

- eBusiness is predominantly becoming an enabler by which organisations can streamline their operations. With an eBusiness infrastructure, business functions, operations and workflows can now be networked, integrated, automated and free up resources – which result in lowering costs, and increasing efficiency within an organisation.

- eBusiness technologies and practices are creating new ways of conducting business.

- eBusiness removes and blurs many geographical boundaries and the distinctions between customers and businesses and businesses and their suppliers.

- In the business-to-business world there has been an explosive growth in trading hubs which will also have significant effects in retailing and distribution as they enable companies to respond more quickly to changes in patterns of consumer demand enabling consumers to bargain more directly with manufacturers.

33 Source: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Intelligent%20Infrastructure%20Systems/Index.htm Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=26334 Source: http://www.foresight-ni.org.uk/ Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=583

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- The effect of eCommerce is mixed. Strengths include the ability to build a “clean green” brand in consumer-oriented sectors of food and textiles; opportunities include the potential to strengthen the performance of small suppliers through collaboration and the further development of university centres of excellence. Weaknesses include skills shortages and poor investment in R&D; threats include the possibility that business-to-business trading hubs could squeeze supplier margins further.

- Critical success factors for Northern Ireland in the new economy include: A more out-going attitude towards risk and entrepreneurship; Access to eCommerce channels, among both consumers and businesses; Development of a climate where public funding or grants are made available only after an assessment of a company’s readiness for the eEconomy; Low-cost bandwidth is made available to encourage usage and innovation; Education and skills development is tackled with some urgency, and that policy should seek to connect the research base of the universities with commercial innovation to build more dynamic “clusters” of firms in the key areas of the economy.

19 Information Relationships Report (ICMPanel, 2001)35

The ICM Panel established three inter-related Task Forces to consider the long-term developments in the emerging digital environment, namely: - The Future and Development of Information Relationships - Information Technology, Electronics and Communications - The Learning Process in 2020. In particular, the Task Force focused on two key areas: the attention economy, and the C2C (consumer to consumer) economy - two online developments expected to make a significant impact upon the evolution of the generic online economy. The development of digital networks has led to the communications and media sector moving from an economy built on scarce bandwidth to one built upon scarce attention. In the future, this will lead to the customisation of services built upon the availability of personal information. Recognising the value of attention and personal information as a currency will have significant implications for individuals, businesses, education and regulation. A number of social issues are raised as a result of this ability to personalise information, not possible in the earlier analogue TV or telephony environment. Secondly, the C2C economy is likely to expand dramatically and have profound economic consequences for certain market sectors, notably software product distribution and existing C2C ‘intermediaries’ such as classified advertising magazines or estate agencies. The rise of C2C activity also highlights a number of key issues in the area of copyright and intellectual property rights.

20. Smart Internet 2010 (Austria Swinburne Univ of Tech, 2005)36

Smart Internet Technology CRC was established to capitalise the outcomes of world class Internet research and development for Australia. The Smart Internet 2010 team developed a qualitative conceptual framework based around four Schools of Thought. The overriding theme across these Schools of Thought is the range of possible futures of the Internet from the users’ perspective. They are designed to scope the multiplicity of views about the way the Internet might be by the year 2010, and to highlight strong differences of opinion. Schools of Thought “differ from econometric

35 Source: http://db.efmn.eu/www.foresight.gov.uk Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=600 36 Source: http://www.smartinternet.com.au/SITWEB/index.jsp Download: http://www.dynamo.tno.nl/efmn/download.asp?id=617

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forecasting and scenario planning by drawing upon the richest insights from experts, specialists and participants working in the Internet space”. Smart Internet 2010 presented four schools of thought:

a. Adaptive User Environment. In the context of the Internet for 2010 is that those creators, suppliers, and service providers who invest in understanding the complexity of human factors, and who apply their knowledge about the end-user interaction with the Internet, are generally the most likely to succeed. Critical factors that now drive uptake decisions are whether the prospective services enhance a person’s lifestyle, and/or fulfil personal needs, and whether the service is cost effective and affordable in the long term. This paradigm puts the users at the centre of the development thinking.

b. Not The Smart Internet: A simple, user-friendly, and culturally appropriate Internet is the best option by the year 2010. This sets out to challenge advocates who wish to build a new array of technologically driven Internet applications, some of which may be based merely upon their ‘smartness’ or the ‘quick fix’. Rather, what is more important is a functional, low-cost Internet that hides operational complexity and meets the social and communication needs of its users. They advocate open standards for audiovisual content and devices for the future and are critical of products that tether users to narrow service offerings.

c. Rich Media: Driven by technological innovation in a world where there are a plethora of devices, applications and services feeding off the Internet by 2010. Its members are not inherently deterministic in their approach to 2010, but are increasingly aware that ‘smart’ also means that technology innovation has to be developed within a context of relevance and usefulness to a diversity of markets, people, contexts, and places. Increasingly personal communications have shifted away from a paradigm of a single person using a single device, to a multi person/multi device scene where people use an array of devices. Therefore, as we approach 2010, more and more people will access a wide array of Internet based services irrespective of their dependence on a particular technology or a certain mode of connectivity. It’s the ‘any content, any device, any format, anytime’ paradigm for the Internet by 2010.

d. Chaos Rules: Internet in the future that may be in a continual state of decay and worsening disorder. Chaos is defined here in a variety of ways and is a contested concept. This distrusts the utopian visions of a ‘high-tech’ society because an over-reliance on information technology also creates pathologies and vulnerabilities. This believes Internet futures will be dominated by a negative utopian vision they describe as Digital Dystopia. The root cause of this vision is the Internet’s chaotic and decentralised nature as a communications infrastructure.

21 Nordic ICT Foresight (2005)37

The project includes four focus areas: - Experience economy (media and communication) - Health care - Production economy (industrial automation, production systems), and - Security (emphasis on information security) Four scenarios were constructed from the four quadrants derived from two dimensions User acceptance, with endpoints “harmony” and “conflict” and Business paradigm, with endpoints “open source” and lock-in respectively. The shortened scenario storylines are

- Scenario I: ICT for Security’s Sake: The 9/11 attack became the start of the Great War on Terrorism (GWOT), where EU and US stand side by side. The global situation leaves no

37 Source: http://nordic-ictfore.vtt.fi/ Download: http://nordic-ictfore.vtt.fi/materiaali/carlsen_nordic%20ict%20foresight%20scenario%20report.pdf)

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options for the Nordic countries: the region is tightly interconnected within the EU/US alliance. In order to cope with the terrorist threat IT for e.g. surveillance has been more accepted by the population in EU and the US. Personal integrity has been pushed into the background by the authorities’ need to detect and track terrorists. In the Nordic countries, there are attempts to try to create safe internet platforms – initiatives with limited success mainly due to problems with interoperability.

- Scenario II: The Nordic Mystique: In this future a stronger EU takes a more active role on the global scene. China and EU are partners in many strategic issues. There is a substantial influence of Asian culture and thinking in Europe and the Nordic line of thought “balance in life” has partly been successfully spread throughout Europe, and there are even signs of interest in certain regions of Asia. Because of the dynamic climate around the new ICT companies, the Nordic countries have become an attracting innovation region. Many of the Asian ICT companies are quick mover in the new open source movement and they invest in R&D in the Nordic region. Issues around personal integrity are at top of the agenda and this also helps creating confidence in the development of new technologies.

- Scenario III: Elite User’s Paradise: The demand for oil peaks which results in the start of a rather long period of slow economic growth. The US and the EU are on the same track regarding energy and environment. Due to the creative, but also anarchistic, development of open source based products, there is a need for packaging software for people outside the elite user group. Companies – together with transformed ICT companies from the old era, e.g. Nokia and MS – are the main supplier of products to the second group of users, the “plain users”. This group, the largest of the three, get access to user friendly software, but the functionality is lagging behind that accessible to the elite users. There are a relatively large number of people in the West that do not take part in the digital society – this is the third group of “users”. These people, the “ICT outsiders”, do not have access to the internet in their homes, they do not possess digital identity cards, and they do not use all the new digital services in the health sector.

- Scenario IV: Big Business Lock-In: In this future the economy is dominated by the strong links that has been established between the US and China. The internationally oriented Nordic countries try to reach out of the isolation of Europe. Partly as a compensation for the decreasing contacts with other regions, the Nordic countries turn their attention to Russia. Among other things, export of ICT solutions to the Russian health sector has proven a success for Nordic companies. The ICT industry has matured into a “normal” industry characterised by oligopolistic competition and locked-in customer bases. There is an opposition to this, and to the Big Business led business environment in general. The prime expression of – and the platform for – this is the “undernets”, a clandestine, invitation-only digital under-vegetation for criminals, terrorists as well as peaceful open source activists. The majority of users, however, use the standardised internet and the attached services provided by the leading companies.

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Annex G:

The Change Drivers Identified and their Impact

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The Change Drivers Identified and their Impact This list comprises the initial drivers identified by the project team augmented by the suggestions received for additional drivers from a wide range of commentators with understanding of ICT and e-skills.

SOCIAL Drivers

Social factors relate to organisational and institutional structures (inc. informal ones), relationships and practices, as well as social and cultural influences. S1: Improved Educational Levels (reflecting greater funding and policy inputs to education and

increased demand for higher and further education). Improved educational levels would be expected to impact on e-skills in at least the following ways: • Potential increased availability of relevant skills. • More educated/skilled managers demand better skilled staff? • Education/Skills supply can also generate increased employment directly by the

establishment of new enterprises (perhaps more likely to come - as spin-offs - from – university - ICT research rather than general rising educational levels).

S2: Expectations of higher wages / employment benefits? within the EU (c.f. outside EU). The

impact of higher remuneration expectations within the EU would be expected to include: • Higher costs of relevant skills supply. • Growing relative (cost) attractiveness to employers of off-shoring to countries outside

EU. • This might increase demand for skills for planning and managing off-shoring.

S3: Population ageing trends (wealthier industrial societies have greater shares of older

people) Population ageing trends would be expected to influence e-skills as follows: • Relative decrease in appropriately-skilled employment pool; relative reduction in

average flow of relevantly-educated younger new recruits. • Loss of “institutional memory”, core technology expertise, product/ service market

specifics/major customer relationships – need for maintenance/transfer of all these following retirement of key people.

• But mitigated by changing situations – both technologies and markets. S4: Efforts to compromise systems (by hackers, fraudsters, cyber-terrorists, etc.) give rise to

growing concerns about ICT Security (e.g. criminal or politically-motivated attacks on systems or data). Compromise or failure of ICT systems resulting from attack would be expected to result in, at least: • Increased demand for ICT Security skills. • Increased opportunities for security-increasing products/services? • Security concerns leading to growth in aversion to off-shoring on grounds of lower

perceived security in remote sites. S5: Adoption of ICT in ways that enable new working and learning practices grows (e.g.

remote working and e-learning) (e.g. significant increase in remote/mobile work, e-Learning in the workplace, growth in Life-long Learning). The impact of such adoption would be expected to include:

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• Increase in supply arising from removal of access constraints? (e.g. more remote working).

• Increase in (minor?) specific skill requirements associated with new working patterns. • (See T6 in relation to Learning Practices).

S6: Adoption of ICT in ways that support development of new types of organisational

structure (e.g. systems supporting structured - even highly disciplined - co-operative and mobile work) (continuing of outsourcing trend, virtual enterprises, network firms, multi-/inter-national organisations, new forms of collaboration). The influence of ICT adoption in this way would be expected to include: • Greater flexibility needed to cope with changing ‘earning-arrangements’? • Understanding needed of where ICT fits into the new enterprise models. • Probable increase in demand through search efforts for each business component to be

“best-in-world”. • Management across strategic partners/ along value-chains, skills issues among business

“eco-systems”. • Other types of organisational change might be less positive for off-shoring, demanding

new skills and even physical proximity. S7: Inward migration to richer EU countries (from other Member States). Increased Inward

Migration would be expected to impact e-skills as follows: • Increased availability in domestic labour market of people, some of whom have relevant

skills, and are often prepared to work for lower remuneration than indigenous workforce. • Longer term impact on “richer” Member State salary levels… probably a) evening out

remuneration differences around the EU, and b) possibly making EU overall more globally competitive?

S8: Shift of (in particular, Female) attitudes to work as ICT Practitioners. The influence of

such attitude shifts on e-skills would be likely to include: • Possible significant increase of supply. • Not clear how the attitude change(s) could be achieved in a major way… • Possible impact on salary levels arising from significant increase in supply?

S9: Fading significance of techno-sceptic attitudes as cohorts reared on ICT come to

dominate. The fading away of the dominance of techno-sceptic generations would be expected to cause: • Increasing fraction of the workforce with a head start in confidence and excitement with

ICT. • Fading away of major user skill learning needs as generations that grew up with ICT

become dominant. • Greater familiarity can allow more effective innovation.

S10: Increasing mobility generally (both within Europe and globally) - growing migration (in

particular of the young elite) to other, generally more prosperous, regions. Increasing mobility of the global population is likely to impact e-skills as follows: • Continuing growth of transport sector and its ICT requirements. • Growth in telecommunications traffic demand as people get further from friends,

employers/customers and family. • Knock-on effect of the above on demand for ICT business and ICT Practitioner skills.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe S11: Demographic changes beyond age – e.g. in relation to gender and ethnic distributions

(often described in terms of greater diversity in populations and workforces). The likely effect on e-skills of greater diversity in European communities and workforces would include: • Bringing different perspectives to bear on software and systems development. • Bringing to bear different expectations on what systems should do (and how?). • Broadening the cultural context of all ICT work, bringing both additional challenges and

additional resources & approaches. S12: Increasing emphasis on safety and security-related measures (e.g. homeland security

activity; increase in CCTV and other societal monitoring measures). The seemingly relentless growth of security-related considerations is likely to influence e-skills, at least, as follows: • Growth in demand for Practitioner skills in all aspects of security. • Need for more security awareness and good practice in ICT Users. • Gradual increase in limitations to system use. • Possible loss of creativity and innovation arising from growing risk aversion (except in

the security field, where incentives for innovative approaches will grow). S13: Improved health and well-being is sought after for ageing citizens (and is apparent in

investment and expenditure decisions). As people live longer in reasonable health, there will be impacts on e-skills as follows: • An increase in supply of experienced (if less energetic) skills of all kinds, including e-

skills. • Growth in demand for effective ICT devices, systems and services from those with

generally adequate purchasing power. This will help increase demand for ICT products and services, and so for e-skills generally.

S14: Growing importance of ‘on-line socialisation’ (with growth of virtual communities for work

and leisure). The strong growth of Internet-enabled communication between people will bring new experiences and approaches to remote interaction. This could impact on e-skills as follows: • The requirements for ‘second-generation’ remote-communication interfaces will emerge,

which will both exploit greater band-width and tackle current limitations, as well as enabling new human behaviour. This will fuel demand for further innovation and development, thus increasing demand of both Practitioner and e-Business skills.

• User skills will both influence, and respond to, such developments. However, as user interfaces become simpler/more intuitive, skill levels for effective interacting with the system will fall.

S15: Growth of multi-culturalism (and of occasional backlashes). This development will affect

e-skills in ways similar to those of S11 and beyond. These will include: • Enhancement of e-skills requirements with the broader perspectives emerging from multi-

culturalism. • Inter-cultural sensitivities that can arise (e.g. in backlashes), can threaten the ‘open

norms’ of multi-cultural communication, and produce increased pressure for security barriers.

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TECHNOLOGICAL Drivers Technological factors include knowledge of how to affect the material world, artefacts and software that can accomplish this, the functionalities that they offer. T1: Major new classes of technology, applications and styles of use of technology introduced

and exploited. The impact of emergence of significant new ICT and applications include effects like: • Initial absence (severe lack) of Practitioner skills to develop/maintain new technologies. • Initial absence (severe lack) of User skills to effectively use new technologies

(depending on user-friendliness of the User Interface). • Initial absence (severe lack) of e-Business skills to fully exploit the new technologies. • Major new demand for ICT Practitioner skills (depending on speed/scale of pick-

up/market penetration, in different sectors &/or economies). • Major new user skills demand (depending on speed/scale of pick-up). • Major new demand for e-Business skills (although functionality of new technology

should, in principle, be able to be assessed relatively quickly). • The “bootstrapping” (customer education) problem of skills dissemination for roll-out of

new software products is relevant. • This relates to “revolutionary” changes – not to handling software product upgrades, for

which most practitioners (and others) are broadly prepared. • Often a major roll-out programme is required, disseminating the skills of those involved

in the product/service creation (from overseas if innovation came from there – e.g. U.S.). • Probably considerable geographic variation of off-shoring skills supply in this situation

(relevant skill base in some lower-cost economies may take time to build-up (?)). • Need to recognise that some innovation (and initial exploitation) will take place in

emerging economies. • The strategic implications of this challenge, in particular on public education system

emphasis, need carefully considering, in the light of our experience with previous waves of ICT innovation. In particular, should the learning provision emphasis be on (“specific training”) trying to follow latest short-term developments, or on a broad “preparation for the unexpected” general education?

T2: Improved user interfaces widely used. The impact of better user interfaces would be expected

to include: • Positive impact on supply of ICTP skills – also a) could make developing systems easier,

and b) make training more attractive (?) • Positive impact on supply of user skills, since less training required and on-job learning

easier. In principle, could open up access to significant additional groups (effect might be a “step increase” in user skills supply (?)).

• Likely to extend business opportunities/market for relevant ICT products/services… (make ICT exploitation easier), so increase demand for e-Business skills.

• Perhaps some productivity gains for ICT Practitioners resulting in less new demand than otherwise?

• Possible reduction in demand since, in principle, users might become able to do certain things for themselves that would previously have required Practitioners…

• Should generally reduce demand for user skills, maybe significantly. • Possibly reduce demand somewhat for sophisticated e-Business Skills? • Could have impact on cost-effectiveness of e-Learning (see T6)

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe T3: Greater adoption of software engineering (tools) and more disciplined approaches to

system development (for increasing productivity of ICT Practitioners). More software engineering and similar approaches would be expected to impact e-skills in the following ways: • Possible increase in supply of ICT Practitioner skills (easier to master technologies for

which initial training could be simplified?) • Reduced (comparative) ICT practitioner skill demand arising from increased

productivity of software development, and possible increase in scope for ICT users to do what previously required practitioners.

• Fewer trouble-shooting ICT user skills needed? • Relative use of such tools and approaches will vary between off-shoring economies (e.g.

note major use of CMM in India). • Could Practitioner jobs be de-skilled? • More disciplined development process might be more effective in some working cultures

than others. • Falling price of software tools could enable more widespread take-up in emerging

economies. T4: Enhanced Telecommunications Infrastructure and Services (enabling improved

organisational and personal communications). The impact of enhanced telecoms. infrastructure and services on e-skills would include: • Increase in effective supply of e-skills arising from removal of access constraints? (e.g.

more remote working). • Increased demand for practitioner skills arising from more business opportunities for

new (ICT-based) services – skills required for more challenging technical opportunities? • Additional user skills required to effectively use new functionalities and capabilities (e.g.

new family communication opportunities for ‘silver surfers’)? • Some increase in e-Business skills demand (adequate understanding of new capabilities

required) • This trend would generally bring continued increase in capabilities and attractiveness of

off-shore resourcing. • Possible increase of all skills supply through contribution to effectiveness of e-Learning

(T6). T5: Maturation of (parts of?) ICT Infrastructure/Services. Possible maturing of ICT

infrastructure would influence e-skills at least in the following ways: • Reduced practitioner demand for innovative development – shift to mature operational

skill-mix. • Greater stability reduces continuing User skill requirement in some areas? • Reduction in innovative opportunities and so demand for e-Business skills? • Possible limitations of off-shored resourcing probably reduced (reduction in less-routine

aspects of ICTP work). In general, maturation would allow learning provision to “catch-up” with the needs…

T6: (Significant) Improvement in (cost-) effectiveness of e-Learning. Impact of real

improvement in e-Learning effectiveness on e-skills would include: • in principle increased learning and so skills supply for Practitioners and e-Business, and

(possibly significantly) for Users. • Growing demand for ICT Practitioners with e-Learning expertise. • Increasing demand for user skills involving familiarity with leading e-Learning

packages?

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• Understanding of e-Learning technologies for effective exploitation of opportunities in the global learning market?

(Current constraints on availability of other components of blended learning would need to be overcome) T7: Growing impact of technology convergence on content-related products & services. Acceleration of convergence would be likely to influence e-skills in the following ways:

• Demand growth for practitioners from Consumer Electronics sector. • Growing need for combination of ICT user and design skills? • Skills to enjoy/effectively use new products/services (likely to be low level?) • Continuing opportunities requiring e-Business skills in this market-place?

(This sector/market-place may provide (through availability of hybrid skills) some significant business niches for European production (e.g. Games sector?)) T8: New technologically-based threats to infrastructure and business are experienced on a significant scale. The influence of growth in threats to ICT infrastructure on e-skills would be expected to include:

• Reduction in demand for (almost) all types of e-skills arising from fall in confidence - and so investment in - and use of, ICT.

• Growth – possibly significant – in demand for ICT security skills. T9: More use of bio-mimetics in design (growth of nature-inspired design). Increased nature-inspired design would be expected to impact e-skills as follows:

• Rise in demand for new types of skill (including specialist skills for bio-mimetics and those needed for different approaches arising from the new designs).

• Possible easing of demand for User skills resulting from easier and/or more natural user interfaces.

T10: Impact of more accurate geographical positioning systems (e.g. Galileo) in terms of more and better services. All spatial-positioning and tracking systems will be affected, and the performance and precision improvements will provide opportunities for new types of product and service. As a result, such developments will stimulate new growth and impact on e-skills as follows:

• Growth in demand for ICT Practitioner skills (in particular around the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) area).

• Increased opportunities for new businesses, and so need for e-Business skills. • Growth in User skill requirements for the new devices and systems – assumed to be at a

limited skills level. T11: Growth of use of ubiquitous & utility computing - emergence of Ambient Intelligence as a social and business platform. The increasing availability of adequate amounts of computing power, wherever and whenever needed, at relatively low prices will effectively remove processing constraints. This will enable the development of a number of new systems and applications, and the effect of this on the e-skills position will include:

• Demand for e-skills of all three kinds, although the likelihood is that system use will continue to be simplified, thus reducing the complexity experienced by the User, and so the level of User skill required.

T12: Growth in development and availability of carbon-emission reducing technologies. Incentives for development of technologies to tackle carbon emissions are likely to accelerate. This

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe will involve more efficient consumption of fossil fuels and growing substitution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. Such developments will have a significant innovation component, and ICTs will play their part. As a result the impact on e-skills will include:

• Growth in demand for ICT Practitioner skills, in particular with experience in energy-generation system applications.

T13: Continuing growth in creative applications of ICT in existing and new areas (e.g. e-health, spatial and movement tracking systems, e-democracy, and leisure). The scope for enhancements of existing systems and the development of others can be viewed as still very considerable, and this will result in:

• Additional and new demand for all types of e-skills. • Particular opportunities – and need - for e-Business skills. • Demand greatest for ICT Practitioner skills with experience in the innovative sectors and

applications. T14: Development and deployment of Digital Rights Management (DRM) and related technologies. Agreement on IPR principles for software and on-line content seems difficult to achieve: confrontations are significant, and the future path of this debate in different jurisdictions remains to be seen. The main e-skills implications are:

• Additional demand for specialized ICT Practitioner skills in DRM and related applications, as well as Practitioners with certain legal understanding.

T15: Shift towards of the use of Open-Source Software. O-SS could bring e-skills benefits through additional resources being available for additional development work (both system- and human-). The Open-Source approach also provides a mechanism for the commoditisation of mature technologies, thus stimulating further innovation. Possible impacts of a shift to Open-Source software on e-skills are:

• Increase in demand for skills/experience in using Object-Oriented tools • Diversification of system design and development approaches, with growth in demand

for ICT Practitioners in innovative contexts. • Additional resources for training and professional development.

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ECONOMIC Drivers

Economic factors concern prices, markets, supply and demand of commodities, general financial and business circumstances. E1: (Levels of) Economic Growth within the EU. The impact of bullish economies within Europe on e-skills would be likely to impact e-skills significantly in the following ways:

• Increased demand for all three types of e-skill, and rise in business opportunities involving e-Business skills.

• Increase in ICT activity in some EU countries might reduce domestic supply of practitioner skills in others.

(Differential growth within the EU needs to be considered) (If (particularly ICTP) Skill Shortages re-appear in the domestic economy, attractiveness of off-shoring will presumably rise) E2: Levels of Global Economic activity. Growth in economic activity around the world would influence e-skills as follows:

• Probable positive spin-off e-skill demand generally into domestic economy, plus, in principle, increased demand for export business.

• Increased demand for ICT HR beyond the EU might result in skill shortages in overseas ICT Industry and price rises for off-shored services.

E3: Price trends of major classes of ICT equipment (continuing to decline?). Price movement for ICT Hardware (H/W) would be likely to influence e-skills as follows:

• Demand for ICT Practitioner skills would generally hold up under continuing ICT investment and improved hardware power. Lower H/W prices can bring a) new ICT activity (e.g. by greater penetration into smaller organisations), but also b) pressure on the “on-costs”, possibly resulting in pressure on (e.g.) SME consultants rates?).

• More widespread ICT use and so increased requirement for User skills, other things being equal.

• Greater business opportunities for ICT exploitation and so demand for e-Business skills (some shifts in price movement arising from the move to multi-core processors). E4: Prices of alternatives to ICT-delivered services (continuing to rise?). Price movements of alternative solutions to ICT ones would, in principle, impact e-skills inversely to E3 as a result of influence on substitution effect, specifically:

• Reduction in demand for all three types of e-skills, arising from corresponding reduction in ICT activity.

• Where such prices rose, an inverse reaction would stimulate comparative increases in demand for e-skills.

(Important to recognize the possibility in principle of technology substitution as a future development - not easy to envisage at present…) E5: Increased start-up rate for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). The result of increased enterprise start-up rate would be the following effects on e-skills:

• Increased need for all three types of e-skills (in particular for ICT start-ups). (Market new entrants (whether ICT Supply businesses or not), are likely to make more use of ICT than the sector average…).

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe E6: Commoditisation of ICT goods & services is commonplace. The implications of ICT commoditization for e-skills would be likely to include the following:

• Some additional understanding needed in ICT Practitioner and e-Business skills. • Demand for User skills would be expected, if anything, to ease, since presumably

interfaces would be made very user-friendly. (Technology can turn service into product, but economies of scale can result in different kinds of commercial ‘packages’…) E7: (ICT Industry) Increasing Global Competition. Increasing global competition for the European ICT Industry would be expected to have the following implications on e-skills:

• Demand for greater productivity by ICT Practitioners and ICT Users, followed by (step) fall of demand arising from off-shoring decisions.

• Demand for more e-Business skills. Creative innovation and applications needed. • Competitive pressures bear down strongly on cost base, resulting in major trend to explore

(and often adopt) off-shoring… (Need for strengthening skills related to Niche positioning of EU economies and sectors (e.g. higher quality, higher value-add)) E8: (ICT Industry) Increasing customer demand for more cost-effective delivery. Expected impact on e-skills:

• Need for overall greater cost-performance by ICT Practitioners – including greater professionalism in ICT design, development and delivery. In absence of improved performance, threat to demand from off-shoring.

• This driver will also lead to strengthening of the off-shoring trend. E9: (ICT Industry) development of strong customer reaction to bad experience with outsourcing (and off-shoring). Such a development would be likely to impact on e-skills as follows:

• Possible ICT Practitioner skill demand increase where resourcing is ‘brought back’ to domestic market operations.

E10: (ICT Industry) emergence of new technologies and companies on a large scale. Rise in new technologies and companies would be expected to influence e-skills as follows:

• Increased demand for all three classes of e-skills. (While this trend may seem a threat to some existing ICT companies, it should presumably be viewed as evidence of a healthy growth of competition… and so competitiveness of the Member State domestic (& EU) industry…) E11: Increasing energy costs. These would be likely to influence supply and demand for e-skills as follows:

• Direct impact is on growth of demand for Practitioners to work in the sector, on system enhancements or new systems that support the future development of energy enterprises (for example in entering alternative energy supply markets).

• Knock-on effect on development of systems of different kinds that support energy conservation.

• Possible increase in demand for safety-critical systems, e.g. for nuclear power station systems.

• Longer term negative impact resulting from inflation and growth reduction. E12: Increasing globalization generally (including global labour following global capital, and growth of globally-integrated businesses). It is not clear what can check the rise in globalization,

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe and in the economic benefits of geo-sourcing which bring both opportunities and threats. In terms of e-skills within Europe, the main impact expected would be:

• Increasing competitive pressures in all sectors, resulting in continuing/growing pressure on all aspect of companies’ cost base, with HR cost being increasingly tackled with the use of off-shoring.

• Potential reduction in demand for all types of e-skills within the EU, mitigated by some additional need for skills in ICT infrastructure and supplier management.

E13: Increase in on-line services (both voice and data telephony delivered) - continuing automation of routine and lower-level work. Cost-reduction of business processes through (initially) out-sourcing to call/contact centres and (ultimately) automating the process will impact e-skills in the following ways:

• ICT User skills are required for call/contact centre work, although possibly in lower volumes that in the out-sourcing organisation, resulting in net reduction in employment in these roles.

• ICT Practitioner skills are demanded both for developing/maintaining on-line systems, and in particular for designing the automated services.

E14: Growth in ‘management by measurement’ – through increased use of performance and evidence indicators (in the private and public sectors). This trend is expected to result in the following implications for e-skills:

• Growth in ICT user resulting in potential increase in all three types of e-skills. • Particular importance of skills for effective and appropriate design and introduction of

business processes where quantitative measures play a greater role than in the past. E15: Growing investment by large private companies in their own ‘education’/training facilities (e.g. Motorola University; Cisco Networking Academy Programme). These often very substantial initiatives have proved useful in increasing the supply of ICT Practitioner skills. Their contribution is, however, somewhat broader, as they can have an impact on community awareness of ICT and its opportunities. The main impact on the e-skills position is:

• Provision of new supply of ICT Practitioner skills of relevance to the investing company (e.g. networking skills for CISCO).

• Stimulating awareness and interest in ICT within governments and educational establishments.

• Raising the debate about public sector ICT Practitioner skills provision, where the company feels it is ‘filling a gap’.

• Providing examples of best practice of company investment in skills. E16: Growing divergence between skill needs of large companies and SMEs - greater need for SME-related policies. This trend is likely to impact the future supply and demand of e-skills as follows:

• Continuing pressure on SMEs’ cost-base arising from their inability to satisfactorily outsource, resulting in impaired salary prospects for all employees, including those working in ICT.

• High demand for ICT Practitioners with wide range of practitioner skills.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe E17: Impact of the growing “pension crisis”. The combination of greater numbers, better health and lower pension expectations is likely to mean more older people working than before. As a result, the impact of this trend on the e-skills will be largely the same as that of S13 (and the inverse of S3), namely:

• An increase in supply of experienced (if less energetic) skills of all kinds, including e-skills.

• Growth in demand for effective ICT devices and systems, from those with generally adequate purchasing power. This will help increase demand for ICT products and services, and so for e-skills generally.

E18: Impact of shifts in US HQ strategies on the European market. American ICT majors have had a very significant presence in Europe, and no major change to that is expected. However, as truly globally-integrated companies, these enterprises can, and will, shift resourcing when advantageous and appropriate. This could have impacts on European e-skills of the following kinds:

• Potential loss of demand for all three types of e-skills (where operations are removed from European sites).

• Potential increase in demand for types of e-skills where European workforces have comparative advantage (e.g. in certain leading-edge expertise).

E19: Growing business investment in skills and training. Many forward-looking companies, not least in the ICT Industry, already commit significant investment into staff training. As arrival of the knowledge economy gains pace, the marginal product of each person is likely to be enhanced by investment in their further professional development. Thus the impact of such a trend on the supply and demand of e-skills would be:

• Raising of skills (supply) levels, in particular for ICT Practitioners and e-Business skills. • Emergence of a ‘virtuous-cycle’, where good people want to stay on because an employer is

providing training/professional development, and the contribution of such people, as they gain further experience and knowledge, becomes even greater.

E20: Development of supply of e-skilled labour in off-shoring and potential off-shoring economies. A major (the primary?) cause of each off-shoring step is the greater availability of ICT skills in overseas economies at significantly lower price levels. Thus a change in the supply of such skills in different countries will inevitably impact on the comparative advantages of off-shored – cf. EU-based - resourcing. The effect of an increase/growing scarcity of labour in significant economies outside the EU would therefore include:

• Rise/fall in the comparative attractiveness of the off-shoring option, and so reduction/increase in demand for (in particular) ICT Practitioner skills within the EU.

• Fall/rise (in principle, over time) in the price of labour within economies competing for EU off-shoring business, and so growth/contraction of demand for (in particular) ICT Practitioner skills in Europe.

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ENVIRONMENTAL Drivers

Environmental factors include developments in biological and natural environments and ecosystems, pre-eminently, but may also include those in the more immediate built and living environments of human beings and the local experiences of, for example, pollution and resource scarcity. N1: Acceleration of global warming and its impacts (disruptive of established economic patterns; migration from affected – developing – countries). Economic impacts of global warming, while the subject of growing concern might be expected to have an effect on e-skills in the following ways:

• Increased inward-migration raises numbers available on the domestic labour market, some of whom have relevant e-skills.

• Probable reduction of e-skill demand arising from disrupted domestic (and export destination) economic activity.

• Political and Social disruption could reduce scope for off-shoring (through threats to smooth off-shoring operations) in some developing countries.

N2: Disruption of Gulf Stream (Europe’s own major climate-change induced threat?). The consequent impact e-skills would be expected to include the following:

• Highly unpredictable, but likely to be disruptive of established economic patterns, with large-scale migration around (within) Europe.

• Supply of people and so e-skills, could rise (Southern and Central Europe?) or fall (North-Western Europe?) (see E3).

• Probable reduction of demand for all types of e-skills arising from economic disruption. • Impact on off-shored resourcing supply/attractiveness would depend on possible disruption

beyond Europe, negative impact on communications infrastructure and political responses to economic and environmental problems.

N3: Pressure/effort to replace travel and transport with telecommunications (to reduce environmental impacts, escape congestion and effects of pollution). Significant reduction of travel would be likely to increase ICT-based activity, and so cause the following impacts on e-skills:

• Increased Demand for practitioner skills (?) (except in Transport sector). • Possibly some increased demand for user skills (?) (except in Transport sector). • Probable increase in off-shore resourcing, since already remote-working. • Could also strengthen remote working across EU.

N4: Emphasis on reduction of ICT and electronic waste (more re-use of equipment, etc.). Reduction in rate of procurement/replacement of ICT equipment would be expected to impact e-skills as follows:

• Presumable reduction in ICT growth rates, causing reduction of demand for e-skills of all kinds?

• Some increased Practitioner skills demand for re-configuring equipment and upgrading S/W?

• Some reduction in User re-training requirement? • Opportunities for creative approaches, given new situation, and so need for e-Business skills

N5: Environmental regulation & concerns lead to growth in business (ICT exploitation) opportunities (e.g. re-cycling business, water waste reduction, energy-saving/producing technologies, products). Impact of rise in business in this emerging sector on e-skills would include:

• Increased demand for Practitioner and User skills in the sector. • Major challenges and opportunities and so need for e-Business skills?

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe N6: Increasing water shortages. Rise of water prices and increasing need to reduce consumption (either voluntarily or not) could influence e-skills as follows:

• Increase of demand for e-Business and Practitioner skills to support changed conditions, process efficiency and conservation activity.

N7: Pressure for new energy sources and distribution architectures (e.g. local production). Such developments would involve significant engineering activity, within which ICTs would play their role, resulting in the following impact on e-skills supply and demand:

• Rise in demand for ICT Practitioner skills for development work on new, e.g. alternative supply, systems.

• Opportunities for ICT exploitation for small businesses in support of such work, and so a need for more e-Business skills.

N8: Pressure for development of carbon sequestration technology. The need for accelerated progress in this field in response to the global warning threat will generate significant ancillary demand for ICT components. This will result in:

• Additional demand for ICT Practitioner expertise (for example in R&D system design, development and test), followed by major plant monitoring and control systems.

N9: Significant economic impact of growing natural disasters. This threat is increasingly recognized, although (geographical) patterns of disruption may not be easy to predict. Such economic set-backs would impact on the e-skills position as follows:

• Loss of ICT activity in the worst affected areas, but likely response measures would involve demand for significant ICT Practitioner skills.

• Additional Practitioner skills demand for development of new monitoring and emergency response ICT infrastructure.

N10: Growing pressure against planned obsolescence. Possible growing awareness of natural resource values could reduce rates of equipment replacement, on which some market growth relies. The resulting implications on e-skills would be expected to include:

• Reduction in amount of ICT upgrading/updating and so growth, resulting in comparative fall of demand for mainstream ICT Practitioners.

• Possible rise in demand for new skills that ensure maximum utility from ageing equipment? N11: Emergence of eco-terrorism. Eco-terrorist attacks would presumably trigger increase in security measures both in relation to ICT and other economic activity. Occasional economic activity and infrastructure damage and growing emphasis on security would be likely to impact e-skills through:

• Demand for ICT infrastructure repair/replacement re-configuring (Practitioner) skills. • Further growth in need for ICT security skills.

N12: Pressure for accelerated development of natural resource-saving technologies. Further engineering development would feed through to e-skills as follows:

• Additional demand for Practitioners, in particular with engineering application experience. • Some business opportunities for exploitation of existing ICT, requiring e-Business skills.

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POLITICAL Drivers

Political factors include political regimes and the philosophies they apply, regulatory and legal; structures, the dominance of particular groups in decision–making, etc. P1: Variation of skilled worker migration flow(s) into EU (from beyond). Assume increase through loosening of Immigration/ labour market access policies. Response of e-skills position to increase in inward migration would include:

• Increased availability in domestic labour market of people, some of whom have relevant e-skills, who are often prepared to work for lower remuneration than indigenous workforce.

• demand for all three kinds of e-skills from indigenous domestic labour force likely to fall, except if backlash resulted in tightening of admission policies.

• some in-flow normally precedes/ accompanies each off-shoring step, but some compensating employment growth in off-shoring supplier local facilities.

• Net impact on average EU salary levels of interest: likely to be lowered directly, but in principle increased indirectly through increased economic activity.

P2: Further reduction of barriers to migration of skilled workers within EU. Effect of barrier-reduction on e-skills situation is likely to include:

• Increased availability in domestic labour market (in particular, of ‘richer’ Member States) of people, some of whom have relevant e-skills, who are often prepared to work for lower remuneration than indigenous workforce.

• demand for all classes of e-skills from indigenous domestic labour force likely to fall, except if backlash resulted in tightening of admission policies – not easy within EU.

• Likely effect on net/average labour cost levels in EU. P3: Changes in taxes on labour (assume reduction). Tax reductions for labour can be expected to impact e-skills as follows:

• Increased demand for all types of e-skills - easier to take people on. • Lower taxes reduce incentives for outsourcing and (especially) off-shoring. • Structure of taxes will determine relative effects on different skill types.

P4: Pressure exerted on employers to reduce/limit off-shoring due to domestic unemployment and related concerns. Political/governmental pressures on employers to reduce off-shoring would be likely to impact e-skills as follows:

• Increases (and knock on effect – through increased incentives for training – to domestic supply) for ICT Practitioner and User skills.

• Such policies would limit off-shoring, and affect what types of off-shoring happens – perhaps less impact on ICTPs than ICTUs?

P5: Growing geopolitical instability (with confrontation appearing between EU and emerging economies). Growing international instability would be expected to influence e-skills as follows:

• Reduced labour demand generally (inc. all types of e-skills), arising from disrupted economic activity?

• Likely reduction in off-shoring (due to fears of security of supply, political interference, etc.) resulting in comparative rise in demand for e-skills within the EU.

• Unpredictable impact on migration.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe P6: Raising of Retirement Age (one-off policy/legislative change(s)). This step would be likely to have the following effect on e-skills:

• Small – ‘one-off’ - increase in availability of (older, more experienced) skilled workers to contribute to supply of all three types of e-skills.

P7: Political/Governmental response(s) to ICT-related problems. (e.g. limits to Internet access; information infrastructure security-related measures, financial systems’ auditability (SOX), etc.). Such responses would be likely to impact on e-skills as follows:

• Reduction in demand for ICT Practitioner skills arising from reduction in activity (and/or increase in demand for ICT security skills).

• New procedures to be adopted for which additional ICT user skills would be required. • Opportunities for new businesses in response to the new situation, and so increased demand

for e-Business skills. P8: (Changes to) Government commitment to ICT innovation and investment (public investment of various kinds – may depend on relative political influence of ICT industry lobby). The effect on e-skills on such commitment would be likely to include:

• Increase/decrease in demand for all three types of e-skills arising from increase/decrease in investment/ICT activity

P9: (Changes to) employment legislation (labour market regulation) levels (inc. effects of differential employment protection between Member States). Such changes would impact e-skills, inter alia, as follows:

• Changes of supply of all three types of e-skills arising from resulting changes in intra-EU movement.

• Some Member States might become (more) attractive locations for off-shoring – possibly producing skill shortages there, and opportunities for people with ICT skills from other Member States.

P10: Occasional major ‘one-off’ national ICT infrastructure transition events (e.g. analogue TV switch-off). Major infrastructure transitions generate considerable preparatory work and responses to problems arising: a ‘one-off’ boost to activity involving e-skills, as follows:

• Additional demand for ICT Practitioner skills, involving installing and upgrading – for both software and hardware (for a limited duration).

• Increased sales of equipment, and corresponding need for support work of various kinds (for a limited duration).

• Some nation-wide public training programmes for supporting final transition efforts (for a limited duration).

P11: Widespread adoption of the Web as a political platform for both lobbying and direct action by grass-roots communities. The effect on e-skills of threats to normal and secure Web-use that could arise from this trend would include:

• Rise in security measure activity of both passive and active kinds: resulting demand for ICT Practitioners with security expertise.

• Growth in demand for Practitioners to undertake system recovery/protection work. • Recruitment by various (national) authorities.

P12: Increasing polarization of attitudes towards government at all geographical levels – possible erosion of national level politics as compared to local and international governance. While Internet removes geographical distance differences, the growing need for cost-effective

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe implementation of ICT-enabled government services will impact the e-skills position in various ways, including:

• Increased demand for all three classes of e-skills. • Continuing demand for outstanding e-Business experts to exploit all aspects of the

technology for the benefit of voters and tax-payers. P13: Increasing importance of cultural differences in politics – especially Islam vs. secularism. Cultural differences can influence perceptions about how institutional systems and political processes operate, and these can involve information systems. Thus a growth of such differences can have an effect on e-skills:

• Specifications for public sector systems might involve additional considerations and adjustments, requiring additional expertise for some e-Business and Practitioner skills.

• Use of ICT systems involving public administration might require additional guidelines and emphases.

P14: Growth of e-Government and ‘Transformational government’ enabled by ICT – and commitment to e-inclusion through awareness and entry-level user skill provision. E-Government within the EU has already begun to make real differences to delivery of public administration, and much more is to be expected. ICT can both improve cost-effectiveness of delivery of government services and change the nature of the citizen’s experience in this area. Possible impacts of these developments for e-skills supply and demand include:

• Continuing strong demand for ICT Practitioners with experience of the public sector. • Need for creative new public administration solutions, with the consequent requirement for

good e-Business skills. • Continuing need for significant investment in basic User skills to ensure access for all

citizens to these new services. • Eventual reduction in user skills demand as delivery of government services requires less

labour. P15: Impact of EU Services Directive (in opening services markets). Greater openness of services markets around Europe would be expected to improve cost-effectiveness of service delivery. The ability to deliver professional and other services across national boundaries will inevitably involve increased use of ICT. Such a trend would be likely to influence e-skills as follows:

• Rise in demand for systems, and all types of e-skills, that facilitate cross-boundary delivery of services

• Increase in need for ICT Practitioners with some understanding of legal aspects and of differences of regulatory frameworks for service-delivery in different Member States.

P16: Growth of effective lobbying of government by ICT Industry. While the ICT Industry has generally enjoyed considerable public investment related to its growing use over the years, support beyond general promotion poses problems for ‘cash-strapped’ governments challenged to decide between many competing claims for public resources. Many in industry (including the ICT sector) would in any case prefer government’s stance in the market-place to be ‘light touch’. However, the all-pervasive nature of ICT means that it does have a strategic importance for governments, both in terms of achieving public administration goals, and in terms of a range of tough issues that ICT-enabled change produces in society. Government as customer is often felt to have an important role in the promotion of good practice in IS development, in spite of the problems that seem often to occur in the development of major public sector projects. Stronger promotion and support of the ICT industry by government, not least in support of its competitiveness in the global market-place, would be expected to impact on e-skills supply and demand:

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• Some rise in demand for all three kinds of e-skills arising from growth of ICT activity. • Government support for publicly-funded education and training can provide some increase/

improvement in supply of e-skills. P17: Policy commitment to flexible markets and life-long learning. A growth in these aspects of policy development would be likely to impact the e-skills position in different ways, including the following:

• More flexible labour markets around Europe would allow increased cost-effectiveness of deployment of Human Resources generally, including those working in and ‘around’ ICT.

• Strengthened commitment to life-long learning (both in terms of learning resources and enhancing the learning environment) could increase supply of all kinds of e-skills.

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VALUES-related Drivers

Values-related factors cover lifestyles and aspirations, attitudes towards the use of time, resources, human beings and other entities, and the like. V1: Declining interest of young people in EU in undertaking technology-related courses/qualifications. The effect of this decline on e-skills would include:

• Reduction in flow of “new recruits” from University ICT courses would reduce supply of ICT Practitioner skills.

• Probable limited impact if User skills are also taught in non-Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) courses.

• Reduction in flow of people with understanding of potential ICT-enabled Science and Technology-based businesses could be serious – reducing subsequent supply of e-Business skills.

• Some emerging economies have strong flows of young people choosing STEM courses. V2: Demand of workforce for more satisfying jobs (covering both job interest and stress levels). Such demand would be likely to impact on e-skills in (at least) the following ways:

• The outcome, for ICT Practitioners, would depend on comparative (Labour Market) power of the “techies”.

• Some reduction in supply of ICT Users associated with lower willingness to undertake more menial ICT user work.

• Possible increase in demand if long working hours for Practitioner staff cease to be the norm…

• Possible increase in demand for ICT User skills arising from reductions in length and intensity of work…

• Would presumably increase the relative attractiveness of human resources without such expectations?

N.B. the negative trends could be offset by increased willingness to train for/ tackle higher-level work… N.B. 2: Care needs to be taken when modelling this effect – in relation to full-time-equivalent (FTE) measures. V3: Possible increase in “enlightened” management philosophies & practices (relating to e.g. demands on staff time/performance, outsourcing/ downsizing, de-skilling, etc.). Such a trend would be expected to impact e-skills as follows:

• Reduced demand for practitioner and User skills? • Probably less impact on demand for e-Business skills than the other two types. • Such approaches, without compensatory productivity/ competitiveness increases, would

presumably be likely to result in reduced performance and so increase outsourcing and off-shoring?

V4: Resistance and growing hostility to surveillance/privacy invasion through ICT at work and in services. The impact of such hostility on e-skills could be as follows:

• Possible negative impact on supply of Practitioners and Users (people moving to other work due to falling image of ICT work).

• Possible negative impact on supply of e-Business skills (arising from tainted image of ICT exploitation).

• Reduced ICT activity and investment and so demand for all three types of e-skills. • Reduced off-shoring resulting from concerns about data protection?

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe V5: Growing concern about health hazards of ICT (this might follow from demonstration of serious negative health/safety/environmental impacts of new technology/RSI/radiation). This concern would be likely to affect e-skills as follows:

• Possible negative impact on supply of (all) e-skills (people moving to other work due to less positive image of ICT work and ICT exploitation).

• Apart from possible significant demand for those with expertise in health hazards (research, innovation, and management) reduced ICT growth/activity, and so demand for ICT Practitioner skills.

• Reduced ICT growth/activity, and so demand of User skills. • Reduced ICT growth/activity, and so demand for e-Business skills, except for new

businesses offering products and services to tackle the problem(s). V6: Lifestyle changes through ICT use in leisure activity - growing use of ICT of different kinds by young people (music, richer visual experience-> immersive technologies? Armchair tourism???). The influence of such changes on e-skills will probably affect e-skills as follows:

• Practitioner skills demand increase in support of (increasingly sophisticated) Consumer Electronics.

• New user skills required to effectively use new – in particular mobile - devices (but most young users quickly acquire).

• Many exploitation opportunities in content (new media/entertainment) industries, and so demand for e-Business skills.

V7: Decreasing attachment to specific jobs and employers - growing adoption of freelance practice (e.g. attrition of loyalty/employed status duration; increase of employment mobility – occupational, geographical – increase of part-time (p-t) and/or self-employed work/portfolio careers). The effect of such new working patterns would include:

• Increase in apparent demand for Practitioner skills (labour market churn?). • Increase in need for certain (basic?) Practitioner skills when more people work on their own

(and lose ICT support they had when employed). • Need for increased levels of User skills when less direct support available? • New opportunities for businesses to provide services to (e.g.) Home Workers… and so

demand for e-Business skills. • Could be associated with more entrepreneurial attitudes and so possible greater resulting

ICT exploitation? V8: Increasing concern about personal security - increase in risk-aversion? This could lead to a rise in interest in devices and systems that could support improved personal security: the effect on e-skills of growing security concerns and risk aversion could therefore be expected to include:

• Growing demand for ICT security practitioner skills for developing and maintaining such new systems.

• Demand for e-Business skills to help specify and exploit their deployment. V9: Growing use of ICT for consumption. Although Internet-enabled sales have already grown dramatically over recent years, the conviction of the advertising sector of the Internet’s value as a future ‘channel to market’ confirms that there is considerably more commercial potential. As a result, there will be an impact on e-skills, including:

• Rise in demand for Internet-trading related e-skills, including practitioner work in web-design, content management and payment transaction systems.

• Corresponding increasing demand for e-Business skills, in particular for those ‘businesses’ who have not yet adequately established (exploited) their Internet presence.

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe V10: Emergence of anti-technology backlash (in response to environmental crisis and/or ethical issues thrown up by new ICT – e.g. surveillance, AI systems - and biotechnologies). The effect of such a backlash on e-skills would include:

• Fall, possibly significant, in use of ICT, with the corresponding loss of demand for all types of e-skill, and consequent job losses.

• Possible ‘secondary’ (reaction) recovery of use and so skills demand arising from: a) realization of the loss of benefits previously enjoyed, and b) recognition that ICTs have less negative impact (e.g. on the environment) than some other technologies.

V11: More interest in/emphasis on corporate ethics and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). Such a development could put pressure on profits and business confidence, although it might result in a new market equilibrium, with a more socially-responsible prevailing ethic. Unfortunately global market pressures might limit sustainability. The impact on e-skills would be likely to include:

• New skills required to enhance some systems in response to new prevailing attitudes. • Demand for both Practitioner and e-Business skills.

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Annex H:

Stakeholder contributions: Persons Contacted, Interviews, Workshops, Meetings

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Persons Contacted, Interviews, Workshops, Meetings

The major importance of this study depends significantly on the degree to which it has succeeded in engaging the perspectives and involvement of experts from key stakeholders, in particular from the ICT Industry. The nature of the input received during the project from a wide range of organisations is shown below. Telephone interviews:

Dany Buyse Agoria ICT, Belgium Jim DeIanni Microsoft Learning, United States Mark East Microsoft Education EMEA Johannes Foerner Microsoft Learning EMEA Anne Hamilton Microsoft, United States Mark Harris Intel Erwin Ihm Deutsche Telekom Vilma Misiukoniene Infobalt Association, Lithuania Axel Pols German Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media (BITKOM) Phil Smith Cisco Systems, Technology and Corporate Marketing Bernd Taselaar ICT Office, The Netherlands David Taylor Cisco Systems Simon Tindall Sun Microsystems Jim Wynn Microsoft Education EMEA Lutz Ziob Microsoft Learning, United States

(set up with the help of:

Emma Bluck Cisco CNAP, European and Emerging Markets Elena Bonfiglioli Microsoft EMEA, Brussels Henning Never Deutsche Telekom

Face-to-face discussion:

Liz Addison e-skills UK Andrew Harvey-Price e-skills UK Peter Hounsome e-skills UK

Workshops on Review of Drivers and Scenario Design (5th & 12th July):

Pascale Barbolosi CRP Henri Tudor, Luxembourg Franz Gramlinger CEDEFOP Con Gregg Publica Consulting, Ireland Antonio Herrera Cisco CNAP EMEA, Spain Volker Rein Federal Institute for VET (BIBB), Germany Andre Richier D-G Enterprise and Industry Beatrice Rogers Intellect UK Gerd Rohde Union Network International (UNI-Europa) Julian Seymour ECDL Foundation Vincent Tilman Eurochambres Steven van’t Veld Architecture, Information and Management bv. (A/I/M) The Netherlands Lawrence Green PREST

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Council of European Professional Informatics Societies Thinking Ahead on e-skills for the ICT Industry in Europe Written comments on initial Driver list

Liz Addison e-skills UK Andrew Harvey-Price e-skills UK Nigel Lloyd Cambridge Professional Development Ian D. Pearson British Telecom Gurdial Rai Professional Contractors’ Group, UK Peter Skyte AMICUS the union, UK

Written Responses to August consultation on draft Scenarios:

Björn Axelsson Swedish IT and Telecom Industry Association (IT-Företagen) Vicente Burillo Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM) Stephen Darvill LogicaCMG Juan C. Dueñas Spanish Electronics, Information Technology

and Telecommunications Industries Association (AETIC) Antonio Herrera Cisco CNAP EMEA, Spain Timo Höykinpuro Federation of the Finnish Information Industries (FFII)Matija Kariž Association of Informatics and Telecommunications, Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia Gerhard Laga Austrian Federal Chamber of Commerce Franco Patini Federcomin, Italy Hannah Grene ICT Ireland Simon Tindall Sun Microsystems Stephan Pfisterer German Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media (BITKOM) Maris Vitins DATI Exigen Group (on behalf of LIKTA), Latvia

(with help in contacting key person provided by:

Xavier Autexier French ICT Alliance (Alliance-TICS) Jeno Bartalos Hungarian Association of IT Companies (IVSZ)Aleksander Frydrych The Polish Chamber of Information Technology and Telecommunications (PIIT) Mara Jakobsone Latvian Information and Communications Technology Association (LIKTA) David Martin Rubio Spanish Electronics, Information Technology

and Telecommunications Industries Association (AETIC) Christine Wenzel SAP AG Peter Winkelmayer Austrian Association of the Electrical and Electronic Industry (FEEI) Jüri Jõema Estonian Association of Information Technology and Telecommunications (ITL)

Feedback on Final Draft Report:

Liz Addison e-skills UK Antonello Busetto Federcomin, Italy Stephen Darvill LogicaCMG Nigel Lloyd Cambridge Professional Development John O’Sullivan Thames Communications Franco Patini Federcomin, Italy Markus Schwertel Cisco Systems

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Roberto Triola Federcomin, Italy Pietro Varaldo Federcomin, Italy Rob Wilson Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick

(with the help of:

Alessia Leschiutta Federcomin) Scenario Validation workshop (22 November):

Björn Axelsson Swedish IT and Telecom Industry Association (IT-Företagen) Dany Buyse Agoria ICT, Belgium Irene De Beni CompTIA & e-SCC Dudley Dolan Trinity College Dublin Nikolaos Faldamis ex-CIO, Olympic Airways Con Gregg Publica Consulting Lawrence Green PREST Hannah Grene ICT Ireland Jane Millar University College London Adeline Prior Interel Andre Richier D-G Enterprise and Industry Julian Seymour CEPIS Vincent Tilman Eurochambres Anneleen Vaandrager Microsoft Education EMEA

Final Project workshop (8 December):

Richard Deiss D-G Enterprise and Industry Mats Marcusson D-G Enterprise and Industry Geoff McMullen CEPIS Andre Richier D-G Enterprise and Industry

Other input:

Leo Debecker ETNO, Brussels (clarification of ETNO’s position on skills) Ana Franco-Lopez Eurostat (support and advice on Eurostat LFS data) John Joliffe Interel Sylvain Jouhette Eurostat (support and advice on Eurostat LFS data) Sebastian Mueller Cisco Systems/Interel (liaison on ICT Task Force WG5 work) Mary Mulcahy ECDL Foundation (Report editing) Aoife O’Sullivan ECDL Foundation (Report editing) Corinna Schulze IBM, Belgium (provision of IBM documentation) Desiree van Welsum OECD – DSTI (general guidance and clarification of definitions) Con Gregg Con Gregg Model development and economics support

Mats Marcusson Review of modelling approach

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