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Flight Movements and Service Units 2018 - 2024

EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast February 2018

EUROCONTROL

Network Managernominated by the European Commission

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Flight Movements and Service Units 2018-2024

EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST

FEBRUARY 2018

Edition Validity Date: 28/02/2018 Edition: 18/01/02/01 Status: Released Issue i

Executive summary

This is the final report of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and service units

forecast, February 2018 release. This document has been prepared as part of the

revised, more inclusive forecast process that was agreed at the 40th session of the

Provisional Council in 2013. All stakeholders’ comments to both draft versions and

our responses to them are made available on the STATFOR OneSky Teams.

Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range (low-

growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks

(e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks (e.g. high load factors

could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-than-expected).

Forecast

This report presents the February 2018 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year

flight and service units forecast. It replaces the September 2017 report (Ref. i). This

update uses the most-recent traffic statistics and economic forecasts, and more up-

to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent air-industry related events.

IFR movements

Total IFR movements in 2017 were 4.0% higher than 2016, a significantly faster

growth rate than observed in recent years, taking annual flight counts finally over the

previous 2008 peak. The traffic was particularly strong until the end of the summer

schedules, with high growth rates supported by the dynamism of the low-cost market

segment, the recovery of traffic from the Russian Federation and the start of a

progressive recovery of traffic towards North-Africa (e.g Egypt). However, flight

growth slowed down in Western Europe at the beginning of the winter schedules

after various bankruptcies, cancellations and poor weather.

For 2018, the forecast is driven by the sustained positive outlook of the economy in

Europe despite the appreciation of the euro and the rise in oil prices. Traffic-wise, we

expect:

A full recovery during the summer 2018 schedule of the traffic losses of the

winter 2017/18;

A continuation of the recovery of traffic between the Russian Federation, Turkey

and Egypt.

As a consequence, the growth rate of IFR movements is forecasted to

be +3.3% (±1.3 percentage points (pp)) corresponding to 10.96 million flights, in line

with the high-growth scenario of the February 2017 forecast. For 2019, the growth of

IFR movements is expected to be 2.6% to reach 11.2 million (±250 thousands).

From 2020 onwards economic growth -- still subject to uncertainties such as the

Brexit negotiations -- will slow down and the continuing increase of average aircraft

sizes will translate into slightly slower growth rates of IFR movements. Consequently,

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after three years of annual growth at or above 3%, European flight growth is

expected to progressively slow down to just below 2% per year between 2020 and

20241.

In 2024, this forecast is for 12.4 million IFR flight movements in Europe (±1.2 million

flights), which will represent an average annual growth of 2.3% and 17% more IFR

movements than in 2017.

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ECAC2).

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider the low-to-high ranges

ECAC 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

AAGR

IFR Flight

Movements

(Thousands)

H . . . . 11,089 11,494 12,036 12,425 12,836 13,255 13,669 3.7% 3.3% 3.5%

B 9,770 9,923 10,197 10,604 10,957 11,245 11,524 11,738 11,969 12,176 12,405 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 10,826 10,995 11,058 11,095 11,176 11,226 11,300 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%

Annual

Growth (compared to

previous year

unless otherwise

mentioned)

H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5%

B 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 4.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%

Total En-Route Service Units

In 2017, the total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL member

states (CRCO163) grew by 6.2% above 2016 levels. This is an upward revision of

2pp compared to the February 2017 forecast, owing to the upward revision in the

flight forecast.

Overall, service units are still growing more quickly than flights because of the

continuing trend in increasing weight factors observed in the past years and the

relative stability in average distance flown.

Following the flight forecast revision and the most recent trends in flown distance and

aircraft weights, the total en-route service units (TSU) forecast has also been revised

1 Note that 2020 and 2024 show additional growths as they are leap years and 2021 displays a lower

growth in reaction to the greater growth of the leap year 2020. 2 ECAC is the European Civil Aviation Conference. See Annex 2.

3 ‘CRCO16’ refers to the sum of all the charging zones formed by the EUROCONTROL Member States

participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2016. This list comprises: States in the

CRCO14 zone plus Estonia which joined EUROCONTROL in 2015.

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upwards till the end of the forecast horizon compared to the February 2017 forecast.

In 2018, 160.1 million TSU are expected to be produced, corresponding to a growth

of 4.5% (±1.4pp) in the participating EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO16).

TSU are expected to reach 166.1 million service units in 2019 in CRCO16, thus a

growth of 3.7% (±1.2 pp).

The strong growth rates observed in the first couple of years of the forecast should

moderate and service units growth should average 2.7% per year over the period

2020-2024. The total en-route service units in the CRCO16 area are expected to

reach 189.6 million in 2024.

Over the seven years period 2018-2024, the forecast for CRCO16 represents an

average annual growth rate of 3.1% (± 1.5pp) and a total growth of 24% of total en-

route service units compared to 2017.

For States involved in the Performance Scheme (RP2Region area), the TSU are

expected to grow on average by 4.1% (± 0.5pp) per year during the second review

period (2015-2019). This corresponds to a 0.9pp upward revision compared to the

February 2017 forecast.

Figure 2. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.


Total en-route

service units

(Thousands)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total

growth

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

CRCO163

H . . . . . 162,215 170,091 179,728 187,166 194,947 202,873 210,785 38% 5.1% 4.4%

B 125,651 132,920 138,505 144,274 153,194 160,108 166,108 171,627 176,037 180,626 184,947 189,599 24% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 158,005 162,137 164,260 165,874 167,939 169,652 171,652 12% 4.1% 1.1%

RP2Region†

H . . . . . 133,626 139,584 147,021 152,667 158,506 164,365 170,096 34% 4.6% 4.0%

B 106,930 111,670 115,063 120,208 126,928 131,945 136,378 140,515 143,786 147,155 150,264 153,616 21% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 130,261 133,180 134,529 135,541 136,911 137,966 139,268 10% 3.6% 0.9%

Total en-route

service units

(Growth)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

CRCO163

H . . . . . 5.9% 4.9% 5.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 5.1% 4.4%

B 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 4.1% 1.1%

RP2Region†

H . . . . . 5.3% 4.5% 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0%

B 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 4.5% 5.6% 4.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 2.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 3.6% 0.9%

† RP2Region stands for the sum over all the 30 states that were involved in the EU-wide performance target setting

including Croatia until 2014 (28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland). RP2 series includes service units

for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.

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Terminal Navigation Service Units

Thanks to the strong Arrivals and Departures recorded in 2017, the forecast for the

terminal navigation service units (TNSUs) has been revised upwards for 2018 in line

with the revision of the flight forecast. The growth rate for TNSUs generated in the

terminal charging zones of the participating countries in the Performance Scheme

(RP2 Region) in 2018 is expected to reach 3.4% (±1.2pp), thus 8.4 million service

units.

By 2024, the TNSUs for RP2 Region are expected to grow by 2.5% per year and to

reach 9.7 million.

Figure 3. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region area as

defined.


Total Terminal

Navigation service

units (RP2 Region)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

TNSU Total

(Thousands)

H . . . . . 8,530.8 8,852.4 9,324.1 9,662.2 10,024.8 10,377.3 10,706.5 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

B 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,484.2 7,854.9 8,156.4 8,433.1 8,665.0 8,906.1 9,104.5 9,314.3 9,489.7 9,686.5 2.5% 3.4% 2.3%

L . . . . . 8,333.7 8,474.9 8,533.2 8,570.7 8,657.9 8,704.8 8,774.9 1.0% 3.1% 0.7%

TNSU (Growth)

H . . . . . 4.6% 3.8% 5.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

B -0.1% 0.6% 3.0% 5.0% 3.8% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% 2.3%

L . . . . . 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 3.1% 0.7%

The EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast will be next updated in September 2018.

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DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS

Document Title Document Subtitle

(optional) Edition Number Edition Validity Date

EUROCONTROL SEVEN-

YEAR FORECAST

FEBRUARY 2018 Flight Movements

and Service Units

2018-2024

18/01/02/01 28/02/2018

Abstract

EUROCONTROL 7-year flight and service units forecast, February 2018 release.

Author(s)

STATFOR Team

Contact Person(s) Tel/email Unit

STATFOR service [email protected] NMD/PFR/FNI/STATFOR

Publications service [email protected] DG/COM

STATUS AND ACCESSIBILITY

Status Accessible via

Working Draft Intranet

Draft Extranet

Proposed Issue Internet (www.eurocontrol.int)

Released Issue

TLP STATUS

Intended for Detail

Red Highly sensitive, non-disclosable information

Amber Sensitive information with limited disclosure

Green Normal business information

White Public information

©2018 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This document is

published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that

EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale).

The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.

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DOCUMENT APPROVAL

EDITION HISTORY

Edition No. Edition

Validity Date Author Reason

v0.1 22/12/2017 STATFOR Team 1st DRAFT Version

v0.2 31/01/2018 STATFOR Team 2nd DRAFT Version

v1.0 28/02/2018 STATFOR Team

All Sections and Annexes

amended after the second

review process cycle:

updated input data and

forecast results after

comments and latest

trends

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................I

1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................2

1.1 CONTEXT .....................................................................................................................2

1.2 FORECAST METHOD ......................................................................................................2

2 FLIGHTS AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2017 ...................................................5

2.1 IFR MOVEMENTS ..........................................................................................................5

2.2 SERVICE UNITS ........................................................................................................... 13

3 FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................. 15

3.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................................................................................... 15

3.2 EVENTS AND TRENDS .................................................................................................. 20

3.3 LOW-COST EFFECT ..................................................................................................... 25

3.4 LOAD FACTORS .......................................................................................................... 27

3.5 DEMOGRAPHICS ......................................................................................................... 27

3.6 AIRPORT .................................................................................................................... 30

3.7 HIGH-SPEED TRAIN NETWORK (HST) .......................................................................... 31

3.8 AIRLINE SCHEDULES ................................................................................................... 33

3.9 EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES ................................................................................... 34

4 GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2024 ........................................................................ 35

4.1 SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (2018-2019) ........................................................................... 35

4.2 MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK (2020-2024) ......................................................................... 38

4.3 COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ..................................................................... 41

4.4 HIGH-SPEED TRAIN EFFECT ......................................................................................... 41

4.5 AIRPORT CAPACITY IMPACT ......................................................................................... 43

5 GROWTH IN SERVICE UNIT TO 2024 ..................................................................... 44

5.1 EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS (TSU) ................................................................................ 44

5.2 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS (TNSU) ........................................................... 46

6 RISKS TO THE FORECAST GROWTH.................................................................... 48

ANNEX 1 ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................... 52

ANNEX 2 TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS ............................................................................ 53

ANNEX 3 ECAC FORECAST SUMMARY ................................................................................ 60

ANNEX 4 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (IFR MOVEMENTS) ................... 63

ANNEX 5 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (GROWTH) ................................ 69

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ANNEX 6 TWO-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ...................... 75

ANNEX 7 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE

(THOUSANDS) ........................................................................................................................... 77

ANNEX 8 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE

(GROWTH) ................................................................................................................................. 82

ANNEX 9 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE

(THOUSANDS) ........................................................................................................................... 87

ANNEX 10 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE

(GROWTH) ................................................................................................................................. 91

ANNEX 11 REFERENCES.......................................................................................................... 95

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Table of Figures

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ECAC). ................................................. ii

Figure 2. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. ..................................... iii

Figure 3. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region

area as defined. ................................................................................................................... iv

Figure 4. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast..................................... 4

Figure 5. Comparison of IFR movements (average daily values) for Europe in

2016, 2017 and forecast released in February 2017. .......................................................... 5

Figure 6. Share of the European flights per market segment in 2017 compared

with 2016 ............................................................................................................................... 6

Figure 7. Growth rates of flight per market segment for 2016 and 2017. ......................... 7

Figure 8. Biggest changes in absolute number of flights in 2017 compared to

2016 with their growth (schematic routing only). The width of the line is

proportional to the size of the flow. .................................................................................... 8

Figure 9. Western European States remained the major contributors to the

traffic growth in 2017 (excluding overflights). ................................................................... 9

Figure 10. Daily departures of the top 6 extra-European partners with ECAC in

2016 and 2017. .................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 11. Change in number of daily departures for the top 6 extra-European

partners with ECAC in 2016 and 2017. .............................................................................. 11

Figure 12. Oil prices average at €49 per barrel in 2017.................................................... 12

Figure 13. In 2017, Ticket prices started to increase since the beginning of the

Summer (when compared to the last 12 months). ........................................................... 12

Figure 14. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO16 area from

January 2015 to December 2017. ...................................................................................... 14

Figure 15: Terminal Navigation Service Units generated yearly since 2010 in the

countries involved in RP2 Region and their growth. ....................................................... 14

Figure 16. EU GDP growth forecast has been revised upwards across the 2018-

2020 horizon and then downwards as of 2021 since the OE January 2017

update used in MTF17 ........................................................................................................ 16

Figure 17. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone ............................................................................ 17

Figure 18. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone ........................................................ 18

Figure 19. GDP Growth by Traffic Region ........................................................................ 18

Figure 20. GDP Growth change per State in 2018 between this forecast (MTF18)

and the February 2017 one (MTF17) ................................................................................. 19

Figure 21. GDP Multipliers per Traffic Region Pair .......................................................... 19

Figure 22. GDP Multipliers per Traffic Zone / Traffic Region Pair ................................... 20

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Figure 23. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone........................................... 23

Figure 24. Adjustments for Overflights ............................................................................ 25

Figure 25. Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone .................................................................... 26

Figure 26. Load factors by Traffic Region. ....................................................................... 27

Figure 27. Population distribution per Traffic Zone. ........................................................ 28

Figure 28: Population distribution per Traffic Region. .................................................... 29

Figure 29: Propensity to fly per age group. ...................................................................... 29

Figure 30. Airport Traffic Switch ....................................................................................... 31

Figure 31. High-Speed Train Times that change during the forecast. ............................ 31

Figure 32. Overview of the Airline Schedule (Innovata LLC, February 2018) ................. 33

Figure 33. Summary of the Forecast for Europe. ............................................................. 35

Figure 34. Flight forecast details for 2018 ........................................................................ 36

Figure 35. Flight forecast details for 2019 ........................................................................ 37

Figure 36. Average Annual Growth per State, 2024 vs 2017 (Base scenario). ............... 39

Figure 37. Number of additional movements per day for each State, 2024 vs

2017 (Base scenario). ......................................................................................................... 39

Figure 38. Average Annual Growth per FAB, 2024 vs 2017 (Base scenario). ................ 40

Figure 39. For total Europe, current forecast is higher than previous forecast

(dated February 2017), with narrower short-term uncertainty. ....................................... 41

Figure 40. Impact of High-Speed Train. Reduction in flights when High-Speed

train network development is taken into account (impact assessed on

forecasts excluding capacity constraints). ...................................................................... 42

Figure 41. Impact of airport constraints. Reduction in IFR flights when airport

constraints are taken into account. .................................................................................. 43

Figure 42. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. .................................. 44

Figure 43. Comparison 2017-2023 of the forecast between the current TSU

forecast and February 2017 for CRCO16 Area. ................................................................ 45

Figure 44. Average annual growth of en-route service units between 2017 and

2024. .................................................................................................................................... 46

Figure 45. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region

area as defined. .................................................................................................................. 47

Figure 46. Average annual growth and estimated additional daily TNSU

generated between 2017 and 2024 per TCZ. ..................................................................... 47

Figure 47. Map of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) Area. ..................... 53

Figure 48. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ........................................... 54

Figure 49. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. .................................. 55

Figure 50. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics. ........................................ 56

Figure 51. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission. ........................................ 57

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Figure 52. States within SES-RP2 Region in this report (Performance Scheme

Region for the Second Review Period). ............................................................................ 58

Figure 53. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2. .................................................. 59

Figure 54. Growth in Europe (ECAC) ................................................................................ 60

Figure 55. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ECAC) ................... 61

Figure 56. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ECAC. ............................... 62

Figure 57. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State. .............. 63

Figure 58. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State. ......................................... 69

Figure 59. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2018-2019. ............ 75

Figure 60. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2018-

2019. .................................................................................................................................... 76

Figure 61: Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands)

per State. ............................................................................................................................. 77

Figure 62. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State. ...................... 82

Figure 63. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands)

per Terminal Charging Zone. ............................................................................................. 87

Figure 64. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per

Terminal Charging Zone. ................................................................................................... 91

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1 Introduction

1.1 Context

This is the final report on the 7-year forecast, February 2018 edition. This

document has been prepared as part of the revised, more-inclusive forecast

process that was agreed at the 40th session of the Provisional Council in 2013.

The quality of the input data and assumptions for the forecast is of key

importance to producing the best-possible forecast. Therefore, the new process

put in place at the end of 2013 aims to encourage comments on the forecast

assumptions from a wide group of Stakeholders.

This final forecast is the last step of the four-month preparation process of the

February 2018 forecast. This forecast is a refinement of the first and second

draft. It includes a review of the forecast inputs and traffic trends up until

January 2018.

This 7-year IFR movements and Service Units forecast replaces the September

2017 report (Ref.i).

1.2 Forecast method

A set of documentation on the forecast methods (Ref. ii) has been prepared in

2013, with the introduction of the new forecast process described in Section

1.1. This documentation describes the methods at a number of levels of detail,

from a two-page summary, to a function-by-function reference. For

convenience of readers, the summary is reproduced in this section.

EUROCONTROL/STATFOR provides impartial air traffic forecasts, market

analyses and statistics to the ATM community in the widest sense, to improve

understanding of current and future trends, to enable better-informed decision

making and thus to improve network performance. The STATFOR forecast has

been serving European ATM since the 1970s. It is the only air traffic forecast

covering Europe.

STATFOR publishes a forecast of IFR flights and both en-route and terminal

service units for the next seven years in Europe. The main forecast update is

published in February each year and refreshed in September. Our focus is on

the traffic forecast for States or larger regions. This influences the modelling

choices made in the forecasting process. Other EUROCONTROL units use this

high level forecast to drill down to the level of airports, control centres, sectors

etc.

The number of flights depends on the interaction of supply and demand: an

airline operates a flight between an airport A and an airport B because it has

customers who pay to travel or ship goods from A to B. Supply and demand are

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each influenced by a large number of factors like economy, regulation,

demographics, business development, oil prices, high-speed rail. When

forecasting, we use data that describe these factors, and data more directly

about actual and future supply (past flights, and future schedules). Some data

are more relevant to the short-term horizon (e.g., airline schedules) while

others are used in the medium-term horizon (e.g., demographics). Probably the

three most influential inputs to the forecast are:

Economic growth forecasts obtained from external specialists, and which in recent years have been very variable; growth has slowed, but there is nothing in our data to show that flight growth has decoupled from economic growth;

Regulation, e.g., rules on visas, open skies, airport funding, aviation taxes;

Overflight patterns since, for the majority of States, most of their flights are overflights. A crisis such as that in Ukraine can easily change the number of flights by 10% or more in a number of States due to re-routing, even if the number of flights on the network as a whole is little changed.

Overall, the components of the forecast can be grouped into five elements as in

Figure 4.

An initial annual forecast for the next seven years based on economic,

transport and other trends;

A monthly forecast based on trends, economics and airlines’ plans;

These are merged, and constrained by airport capacities to give the

constrained forecast;

The final step of the flight forecast is to calculate how many flights are

generated in each State, using both routings through airspace observed in

the historical data and recent trends.

The number of service units in a charging zone depends on the number of

flights, the weight of aircraft and, in the en-route case, the distance flown.

The two service unit forecasts therefore take the flight forecast as an input

and combine this with time series forecasts of weight and distance as

needed. This gives total service units, from which future chargeable service

units are estimated using the ratio of chargeable/total from the previous

calendar year.

We use a highly-automated and structured process to produce traffic forecasts

and because of the variety of factors and inputs, different forecasting

techniques are used: traditional time series methods to extrapolate historical

patterns, econometric analyses to take into account how economic, social and

operational conditions have an effect on the development of traffic, scenario-

based inputs to describe the future (what Europe will be in 10 years’ time?) and

specific data-driven models (e.g., high-speed rail development model). As for

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any forecast, the method relies on historical data either for taking a snapshot of

the most recent trends or longer history to calibrate the models.

Figure 4. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast.

The future is always uncertain. We capture this uncertainty in the forecast

through three forecast scenarios: low- and high-growth scenarios, with the

most-likely ‘base’ forecast in between. All three scenarios should be considered

as part of the risk management of any decision based on the forecast.

As requested by Stakeholders, we have added the following items:

Since the February 2014 forecast, the key relationships with economic growth, including introducing more specific country-pair flow relationships where these make statistical sense. This re-calibration process is described in Ref. iii.

Since the February 2015 forecast, the key relationships with high-speed train growth. This re-calibration process is described in Ref. iv.

Since the February 2016 forecast, we have switched to reporting based on the whole of the ECAC region in place of the smaller ‘ESRA08’. So ‘Europe’ in this report refers to the total of all ECAC member States. For more details see Annex 2.

Since the September 2016 forecast, we have re-calibrated our seats-to-flights models to take into account the trend to put thinner seats into aircraft.

Since the February 2018 forecast, we have added a TSU forecast for Morocco.

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FEBRUARY 2018


2 Flights and Service Units trends in 2017

With 10.6 million flights controlled in Europe (ECAC area), 2017 hit a new

record high and surpassed the 2008 record of 10.2 million flights. The

summer months (July, August and September) were the highest ever

recorded each totalling more than one million flights. The main market

segments all contributed to the strong flight growth.

2.1 IFR Movements

ECAC growth 2.1.1

European flights (ECAC) in average daily terms increased by 4.3%4 in 2017

compared with 2016. This was at the top end of the 7-year forecast published

in February 2017 (Ref. v). Total flights reached 10.6 million in 2017, a new

record high, finally surpassing the 2008 record of 10.2 million flights. The

months of July, August and September hit the record number of more than one

million flights in Europe (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Comparison of IFR movements (average daily values) for Europe in 2016,

2017 and forecast released in February 2017.

4 The 0.3pp difference between the 2017 growth (on 2016) in total movements and in average daily

terms is explained by the extra day in 2016 (leap year).

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The sustained growth of flows between North- and South-Western Europe

during the summer months was above the high scenario of the forecast. The

charter and all-cargo segments accelerated during the summer and with a

double digit increase recorded the fastest growth rates. The stronger-than-

foreseen economic recovery of the Russian Federation also boosted the traffic

growth in 2017. The slowdown which started in November was the result of

Ryanair cutting capacity, the failures of Monarch Airlines, Air Berlin and Niki

along with cancellations at main European airports from snow conditions in

early December.

The Ryanair changes and airline failures came after the September update of

the forecast, and pushed growth below even those revised numbers.

Low-cost flights accounted for nearly 31% (vs 26% in 2013) of the European

flights in 2017, owing notably to the transformation of the traditional carriers,

who, as part of restructuring have handed over their short-haul journeys to low-

cost carriers (Figure 6). The traditional scheduled segment still flew more than

in 2016 but represented only a slim majority of the flights ~52% (vs 55% in

2013).

Figure 6. Share of the European flights per market segment in 2017 compared with

2016

Figure 7 shows the traffic development per market segment (flight growth

compared with 2016). All main market segments, excluding military, contributed

to the flight growth in 2017, helped by the continued improvement of Eurozone

economic indicators. The last time all five of the traditional scheduled, low-cost,

charter, business aviation and all-cargo segments grew in a year was in 2007.

Although the low-cost segment remained the main driver of flight growth in

2017 (+485 flights per day on average), it lost its dominant position in terms of

percentage growth in favour of the charter and all-cargo segments which grew

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FEBRUARY 2018


by 9.1% and 8% respectively when low-cost increased by 5.7% in 2017 (vs.

2016).

Figure 7. Growth rates of flight per market segment for 2016 and 2017.

The low-cost segment has grown consistently between 5% and 10% until

September 2017 then decelerated during the last quarter of the year from 4.5%

in October to 0.6% in November and -0.6% in December, impacted by the

collapse of Monarch Airlines and Air Berlin, and by the capacity cuts of Ryanair

this winter (25 fewer aircraft from November onwards in an attempt to avoid

roster-related cancellations).

The commercial non-scheduled ('charter') segment had the fastest growth and

recovered from April 2017 owing to the recovery of the Russian traffic, together

with the traffic of Eastern European states (namely Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia

& Montenegro, Ukraine, FYROM, Bosnia and Herzegovina), as well as the

recovery of Egypt and Turkey as touristic destinations. The charter segment

recorded a double-digit increase since August 2017 with its international arrival

and departure flows surging to an annual increase of 32%.

The all-cargo segment boosted by a strong intra-Europe cargo market (+9% on

2016) jumped to an overall growth rate of 8% in 2017 vs. 2016, but with

widening seasonal variation as the Summer growth reached 14% in August,

while November and December fell below 4%.

The business aviation segment reported its first year of traffic growth since

2011 and recorded growth during each of the months in 2017 to reach an

annual growth rate of 6.2%.

Traditional scheduled was the weakest segment as it grew at an annual rate of

3% in 2017 (vs. 2016) although it reached its strongest growth rate for the last

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10 years and grew even faster than low-cost in November and in December

2017.

Military IFR was the only segment to decline in 2017 as it went down by 3.9%

compared with 2016.

Figure 8 shows the flows with the biggest changes in absolute number of flights

in 2017 compared with 2016 with their respective yearly growth compared to

2016.

Figure 8. Biggest changes in absolute number of flights in 2017 compared to 2016

with their growth (schematic routing only). The width of the line is proportional to the

size of the flow.

Strong growth was recorded on flows between the Russian Federation

and Turkey

The most noticeable change was the recovery of traffic between the Russian

Federation and Turkey which increased by 243% (+101flights/day) in 2017 (vs.

2016) owing mostly to the resumption of charter flights (+743% on 2016) as the

travel ban was no longer in force, and flight counts returned to pre-crisis levels.

Overall there was a 23% increase on flows between Europe and the Russian

Federation. This growth had an impact on overflights over Romania and

Bulgaria (+150%) as well as over Ukraine (+118%).

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Additional traffic leading to strong growth on the west axis continued

The five busiest flows added a combined 236 flights per day and grew by 7.5%

in 2017 (vs. 2016) with flows between UK and Spain (+45 flights/day), internal

Spain (+29 flights/day) and between Germany and Spain (+20 flights/day)

contributing most to the growth.

On the downside, flights between Germany and Turkey decreased by 8.1% and

saw 21 fewer flights per day in 2017 compared with 2016. In general, flows

between Turkey and Western Europe remained in deficit during most of the

year, but started to show signs of recovery from November onwards.

Flows to and from Egypt recovered

Traffic flows between Europe and Egypt recovered as adverse travel advice

was alleviated, this led to a 41% growth although flight levels still remained

34% lower than in 2010. Leisure traffic was the main contributor to the overall

growth as it increased by 89%. The flow between Germany and Egypt was the

most dynamic and went up 56% (+18 flights/day).

Network Contributors 2.1.2

In 2017 the top three contributors to the network’s local traffic growth (excluding

overflights) were Spain (+212 daily flights), the United Kingdom (+176 daily

flights), and Germany (+137 daily flights), boosted by strong growth on flows

within Western Europe. Since September, the UK and German contributions

declined on average because of weaker traffic (internal for Germany, arrivals-

departures for the UK) due to the respective failures of Air Berlin and Monarch.

Figure 9. Western European States remained the major contributors to the traffic

growth in 2017 (excluding overflights).

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FEBRUARY 2018


Italy added 108 daily flights, and Portugal (excluding Azores) added 98 daily

flights.

Ukraine’s local traffic was up 20% thanks to the state’s flows to Egypt and to

Turkey along with its eastern European flow that remained strong.

Flows to and from Turkey are now on average contributing to 86 extra daily

flights to the European network owing mainly to the growth of the flow from the

Russian federation.

Although not shown on the graph, only two states reported fewer flights in 2017

and they were Norway which saw 22 fewer daily flights due to a weak domestic

flow and Denmark which saw 18 fewer daily flights due to weak international

flows to North-Western Europe (Germany, UK, Sweden and Norway).

Extra-European partners 2.1.3

As shown in Figure 10 and Figure 11, the United States remained the number

one destination outside Europe (ECAC) in 2017, closely followed by the

Russian Federation, in particular during the summer months. The United States

recorded 490 daily departures on average, an increase of 5% compared with

2016 partly due to long-haul low-cost flights growing by 38% on the North

Atlantic flows in 2017 (vs. 2016). The Russian Federation recorded 423

departures per day, an increase of 22.6% on 2016 mainly due to the return of

charter flights to Turkey. The recovery of traffic started at the beginning of

2017.

Flows between Europe and the United States and between Europe and the

Russian Federation accounted for 32% of all departures from ECAC to

countries outside Europe.

The United Arab Emirates was the third extra-European partner with 164 daily

departures on average, an increase of 1.2% on 2016. Other states in the

Middle-East such as Oman, Iran, Qatar and Kuwait altogether recorded a 16%

increase on their flows from/to Europe (not shown on Figure 10 and Figure 11

as these flows are small).

Israel was the fourth extra-European partner with 161 average daily departures

corresponding to an annual increase of 15.1% and was boosted by low-cost

flights which increased by 37% to 32 departures per day on average. The main

European partners of Israel in 2017 were Turkey, Germany, Greece, France,

Italy and Cyprus. The growth of these flows also significantly boosted the

overflights over Greece and Cyprus.

Morocco was the fifth extra-European partner with 158 average daily

departures, an increase of 9.9%. France was Morocco’s main European

partner and recorded a 9.3% increase on the flow.

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Egypt was the sixth extra-European partner with 99 average daily departures

and recorded the best progression with an increase of 40.2% in 2017 (vs.

2016) owing to a robust recovery of leisure traffic from Germany and Ukraine

mainly. The recovery of traffic started at the beginning of 2017.

Figure 10. Daily departures of the top 6 extra-European partners with ECAC in 2016

and 2017.

Figure 11. Change in number of daily departures for the top 6 extra-European

partners with ECAC in 2016 and 2017.

Airline industry 2.1.4

As Figure 12 shows, oil prices averaged out at €49 per barrel in 2017 and were

higher than in 2016 (€41 per barrel) but remained below the peaks of 2011-

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2014. Oil prices fluctuated from €51 per barrel during the first quarter of 2017,

down to €47 per barrel during the second quarter, and reached their lowest

during the summer months (June-August) at €43 per barrel and their highest in

November and December at €54 per barrel. Some temporary shortages in

refining capacity meant that the margin of fuel over oil price increased: so fuel

prices increased more than oil over the year.

Figure 12. Oil prices average at €49 per barrel in 2017.

Ticket prices (Figure 13) started to increase with the start of the summer (May-

August: +3.5% on average) and in December (+4%). Compared with 2016,

airline ticket prices in Europe were on average 3% more expensive in 2017.

Figure 13. In 2017, Ticket prices started to increase since the beginning of the

Summer (when compared to the last 12 months).

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2.2 Service Units

Total En-route Service Units 2.2.1

The total service units (TSU) for the CRCO16 region increased by 6.2% from

144.3 million in 2016 to 153.2 million in 2017. This is an upward revision of 2pp

compared to the February 2017 forecast (Ref. v), owing to the upward revision

in the flight forecast.

This growth of the TSU was mainly driven by the strength of the IFR

movements (see Section 2.1.1) between Western Europe and South-Western

Europe as well as the strong recovery of the flows to and from the Russian

Federation. Consequently, over 2017, the TSU grew by 7.6% in Portugal

(Lisbon FIR) and 5.3% in the Azores, by 7.0% in Spain and 7.9% in the Canary

Islands, by 8.2% in the UK, by 4.9% in France and by 6.0% in Germany

compared to 2016.

In the UK and Germany in particular, the high TSU growth rate, greater than

that of the flights, can be associated with simultaneous increase of the average

distance flown (for overflights) because of changes in the flow patterns. Indeed,

the transatlantic flights were flying more ‘north-about’ trajectories than in the

past due to the jet stream, increasing the average distance flown over the UK

by 3% in 2017. This pattern in the transatlantic flows has, on the other hand,

negatively affected Ireland, which did not record growth. The increased

average distance flown over Germany is partly explained by the reduction of

the German unit rate in 2017.

In Eastern Europe, TSU growth was also strong following the recovery of the

flights between the Russian Federation and Europe (namely Turkey). This

explains the strong growth of TSU among others in Ukraine as well as in

Armenia where record growth figures have been observed in 2017. The growth

in Armenia is also the counter-effect of the huge decline in last year overflights

(April 2016) due to the tensions in the Nagorno-Karabakh region shifting traffic

away thorough Azerbaijan.

In South-East Europe, the implementation of free-route airspace (FRA)

operations in the South-East axis region (SEAFRA and SAXFRA) introduced at

the end of 2016 impacted positively both flights and TSU. As a result, TSU

growth rate in 2017 increased by 20.2% in FYROM, 17.8% in Bosnia-

Herzegovina, 12.2% in Cyprus, and 10.3% in Greece.

However some changes of the routing patterns in the region associated to the

FRA implementation also modified the average distance flown and sometimes

of the weights of overflights in some countries. Croatia recorded TSU increase

of 0.6% despite the 8.7% increase of its total flights. Indeed, the change in

routings resulted in a reduction of the average distance flown as flights flew

more eastern trajectories, clipping the country on a shorter route. More

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generally, flights opted for more eastern routes, thus less along the Adriatic

coast.

Figure 14. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO16 area from January

2015 to December 2017.

Terminal Navigation Service Units 2.2.2

Following the strong growth of the flights, the Terminal Navigation Service Units

(TNSU) in the countries that are part of the second reporting period of the

Performance Scheme (RP2 Region), grew by 3.8% to reach 8.2 million in 2017

(Figure 15). Such a growth is in line with the base scenario of the February

2017 forecast range (Ref. v).

Figure 15: Terminal Navigation Service Units generated yearly since 2010 in the

countries involved in RP2 Region and their growth.

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3 Forecast Inputs and Assumptions

As mentioned earlier, economic growth and other factors strongly

influence demand for air travel. This section describes in detail the many

input assumptions, including those on economic growth.

The improved forecast process enabled the use of the most up-to-date forecast

inputs and assumptions reflecting the main drivers and influential factors over

the next 7 years: economic growth (Section 3.1), events and trends (Section

3.2), low-cost traffic (Section 3.3), load factors (Section 3.4), demographics and

propensity to fly (Section 0), airport capacity (Section 3.6), high-speed rail

network development (Section 3.7) and airline schedules (Section 3.8). Neither

Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) nor Carbon Offsetting and Reduction

Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) have been considered in this

forecast (Section 3.9).

As usual, there are three forecast scenarios, presented in this 7-year forecast:

High: based on assumptions of strong economic growth, stronger

growth of low‐cost market segment, stronger effect of events (e.g. one-

off sporting events) and slower development of high‐speed rail.; this

stronger growth goes with weaker load factors5;

Low: based on assumptions of weak economic growth, weaker growth

in low‐cost market segment, weaker (and later) effect of events (e.g. EU

accession) and quicker development of high‐speed rail; this weaker

growth means stronger load factors which are used to absorb the flight

demand;

Base: the most‐likely of the 3 scenarios, representing an intermediate

point between high and low.

The specific factors which are used in the scenarios are described below. The

first three have the biggest effect on the forecast. Details of how they have this

effect are in the methodology document (Ref. vi).

3.1 Economic Growth

Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by Oxford

Economics Ltd (OE) for most of the States. For some States, when

5 See Section 3.4.

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FEBRUARY 2018


recommended by stakeholders, other GDP forecasts are used. In particular,

official government forecast has been used for Germany and Ireland. All other

States or region GDP forecast data in this report originate from the January

2018 update of the OE forecast. The high‐ and low‐growth scenarios are based

on fixed offsets6 from these forecasts.

Economic forecast for Europe 3.1.1

Figure 16 illustrates how the recent economic forecast for EU countries (indicated as MTF18) has changed since the preparation of the February 2017 flight forecast (indicated as MTF17). Figure 16. EU GDP growth forecast has been revised upwards across the 2018-2020

horizon and then downwards as of 2021 since the OE January 2017 update used in

MTF17

The European (EU28) economy has completed its fifth year of recovery with a

gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.4%, 0.6pp above the one anticipated

in the February forecast. The situation is expected to continue in 2018 with a

growth above 2% despite the appreciation of the euro and the rise in oil prices.

The GDP forecast till 2020 was revised upwards compared to the February

2017 forecast due to the high level of confidence and the more limited

6 +1%, -1% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -1.5% for early years and small States,

+0.5%, -0.5% for late years and big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States.

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FEBRUARY 2018


uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. There is still some political

uncertainty though, in the UK, Italy, Spain and to a certain extent Germany that

could impact these economies and the European economy as a whole.

However, the lessons learned from the last couple of years indicate that the

impact of such political events is usually limited. Downside risks related to the

uncertain outcome of the Brexit negotiations remain, as do those associated

with geopolitical tensions and a shift towards more inward looking and

protectionist policies.

Details per State 3.1.2

The GDP forecasts are shown for all forecasted states and groupings in Figure

17 and in Figure 18 as well as for certain non-European states in Figure 19. For

all other States, the economic growth of the traffic region is used.

Figure 17. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone Source: 2005-2024 from Oxford Economics Ltd (Jan 2018); Forecast of German (Oct 2017) and Irish (Sep 2017) Governments Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 18/01/2018

Actual Base

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Albania 2.2% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9%

Armenia 3.0% 0.1% 6.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3%

Austria 1.1% 1.4% 3.1% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%

Azerbaijan 1.0% -2.4% -0.4% 2.0% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

Belarus -3.8% -2.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5%

Belgium/Luxembourg 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 3.8% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

Bulgaria 3.6% 3.9% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9%

Canary Islands 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2%

Croatia 2.3% 2.9% 3.4% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%

Cyprus 1.7% 2.8% 3.7% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3%

Czech Republic 5.4% 2.5% 4.5% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9%

Denmark 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3%

Estonia 1.7% 2.2% 4.3% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%

FYROM 3.8% 2.4% 2.0% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7%

Finland 0.0% 1.9% 3.0% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

France 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%

Georgia 2.9% 2.7% 5.0% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

Germany 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

Greece -0.3% -0.3% 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Hungary 3.3% 2.1% 4.0% 3.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.0% 1.7%

Iceland 4.3% 7.4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%

Ireland 25% 5.1% 4.3% 3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Italy 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

Latvia 2.7% 2.0% 5.4% 4.8% 3.7% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

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FEBRUARY 2018


Actual Base

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Lisbon FIR 1.8% 1.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9%

Lithuania 2.0% 2.3% 3.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7%

Malta 7.2% 5.5% 5.8% 5.0% 4.2% 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1%

Moldova -0.4% 4.1% 4.5% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%

Morocco 4.5% 1.1% 4.1% 3.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8%

Netherlands 2.3% 2.1% 3.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

Norway 1.8% 1.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

Poland 3.9% 2.9% 4.4% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.1% 2.0%

Romania 4.0% 4.8% 7.0% 4.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%

Santa Maria FIR 1.8% 1.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9%

Serbia&Montenegro 0.8% 2.8% 1.6% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%

Slovakia 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2%

Slovenia 2.0% 3.3% 4.9% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Spain 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2%

Sweden 4.3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Switzerland 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7%

Turkey 6.1% 3.2% 7.0% 3.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

UK 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%

Ukraine -9.8% 2.3% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2%

EU 2.2% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3%

Figure 18. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone

Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan18.

Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 18/01/2018

Actual Base

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Brazil -3.6% -3.5% 1.1% 2.5% 3.3% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%

China 6.9% 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9%

India 2.6% 4.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7%

Israel 7.5% 7.9% 6.2% 7.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3%

South Africa 1.3% 0.3% 1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Figure 19. GDP Growth by Traffic Region Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Jan18

Comments: Real GDP Growth. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 18/01/2018

Actual Base

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Asia/Pacific 2.1% 2.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%

ESRA East 3.8% 3.0% 4.4% 3.6% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8%

ESRA Mediterranean 2.6% 2.1% 3.2% 2.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%

ESRA North-West 2.2% 1.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

Mid-Atlantic 3.3% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

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Actual Base

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Middle-East 0.8% 5.7% 0.5% 2.8% 3.4% 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5%

North Atlantic 2.7% 1.5% 2.3% 2.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6%

North-Africa 1.1% 2.5% 10% 3.3% 3.8% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 2.8%

Other Europe -2.2% -0.1% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

South-Atlantic 1.4% -1.3% 1.0% 2.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6%

Southern Africa 4.3% 1.7% 3.1% 4.1% 4.5% 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 5.1%

Comparison per state between the GDP forecast for 2018 used in this report

and the one used to produce February 2017 forecast is shown in Figure 20 and

indicates a general revision upwards for most European states. Malta saw the

greatest upward revision (+2.5pp) thanks to strong employement and service

exports expecting to boost private consumption. Similarly, Romania saw a

significant upward revision (+2.3pp) thanks to strong private consumption

supported by indirect tax cuts and wage hikes both in the public and private

sectors.

Figure 20. GDP Growth change per State in 2018 between this forecast (MTF18) and

the February 2017 one (MTF17)

On the other hand, Georgia saw the greatest downwards revision (-0.3pp),

similar to that of Estonia and of Serbia and Montenegro. However, such

revisions are limited and must be put into perspective as the GDP growth in all

three countries will stay above 2.5% in 2018.

GDP multipliers or ‘elasticities’ convert economic growth into growth in

passengers. They are estimated from historical data on this relationship and

can be found in Figure 21 and Figure 22.

Figure 21. GDP Multipliers per Traffic Region Pair Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling. Comments: MTF16b Inputs. See Doc499 for discussion. Units: Multiplier

(Elasticity). Data last updated: 20/02/2018. Note: Elasticity reduced by 1.1 for all domestic flights within States in ESRA.

ESRA

NW

ESRA

Med.

ESRA

East

Other

Europe

Asia /

Pacific

North

Atlantic

Mid-

Atlantic

South-

Atlantic

North-

Africa

Southern

Africa

Middle-

East

ESRA North-West 1.5 2.4 2.9 2.6 1.6 2.3 1.1 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.7

ESRA Mediterranean 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.5 2.6 1.4 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.6

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ESRA

NW

ESRA

Med.

ESRA

East

Other

Europe

Asia /

Pacific

North

Atlantic

Mid-

Atlantic

South-

Atlantic

North-

Africa

Southern

Africa

Middle-

East

ESRA East 2.9 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.8 . . . 2.9 . 2.9

Other Europe 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 . . . 3.5 . 3.5

Asia/Pacific 1.6 3.5 2.8 3.5 . . . . . . .

North Atlantic 2.3 2.6 . . . . . . 1.6 . .

Mid-Atlantic 0.9 1.4 . . . . . . . . .

South-Atlantic 2.4 2.8 . . . . . . . . .

North-Africa 1.8 2.8 2.9 3.5 . 1.6 . . 2.5 2.0 1.8

Southern Africa 1.3 2.4 . . . . . . 2.0 . .

Middle-East 1.7 2.6 2.9 3.5 . . . . 1.8 . .

Figure 22. GDP Multipliers per Traffic Zone / Traffic Region Pair Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling

Comments: GDP elasticity per TZ2 flow

Units: Multiplier (Elasticity). Data last updated: 07/12/2017

Belgium /

Lux Bulgaria France Germany Greece Lisbon

FIR Turkey Asia /

Pacific

North

Atlantic

Mid-

Atlantic

Southern

Africa

Middle-

East

France . . . . . . . . 1.0 . 1.2 2.1

Germany . 1.7 2.2 0.3 . . . . . . . .

Greece . . . . 0.9 . . . . . . .

Hungary . . . 2.5 . . . . . . . .

Italy 1.6 . . . . . . . . . . .

Lisbon FIR . . . . . 0.8 . . . . . .

Spain 1.1 . . . . . . . . 0.3 . .

Tunisia . . 1.1 . . . . . . . . .

Turkey . . . . . . 3.0 . . . . 3.4

UK . . . . 0.7 . . 1.6 . . . 2.1

3.2 Events and Trends

The ‘events and trends’ assumptions consist of adjustments to the future

arrival, departure, internal, overflight traffic (IFR movements) and also en-route

service units, to account for specific local factors.

This forecast has taken into account the sport events (WORLDCUP 2018,

EURO 2020 and OLYMPICS 2024) falling into the 7-year horizon. It has also

taken into account some corrections to account for the recent failures of

Monarch and Air Berlin and the capacity cuts of Ryanair during this winter

(2017-2018) schedule. It also includes a boost of:

Traffic to Northern America (i.e. Canada and the United States arrivals and departures) and to Mid-Atlantic (i.e. Caribbean and Central America) linked to the continuation of low-cost long-haul flights there;

Arrivals and Departures in Turkey to account for the the beginning of a recovery of traffic between Western Europe and Turkey;

Overflights, mainly in Turkey and Cyprus but also in a few other Eastern European states to account for a recovery of traffic between the Russian Federation and Egypt after the end of the ban.

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Sport events

WORLDCUP 2018 (Worldwide football cup) is to be held in Russia from 14

June to 15 July 2018 with the final in Moscow. We derived expected impact

based on previous similar events.

EURO2020 (European football cup) is to be held in 13 different European

countries (Azerbaijan, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy,

Netherlands, Romania, Russia, Scotland, Spain, UK holding the final and semi-

finals) during the middle of 2020 is likely to have a small impact on traffic in

those countries. We used the EURO2008 (co-organised by Austria and

Switzerland) historical data to estimate the boost for the different countries.

Since most of the extra flights are generated during the final and semi-finals,

80% of the total impact was attributed to the UK. The rest of the impact was

split between the other countries. The adjusted factor is too small to be noticed

in Figure 23.

WORLDCUP 2022 will take place in Qatar and is not expected to generate

significant additional traffic for Europe.

The host of the EURO2024 will either be Germany or Turkey: the decision will

be announced in September 2018. For the time-being no adjustment has been

considered.

Summer OLYMPICS 2024 will take place in Paris. We have used information

about the impact of Olympics 2012 in the UK to estimate the potential impact

on the French traffic, i.e. international (+0.07pp over 2024) and domestic IFR

movements (+0.01pp over 2024).

Airline Failures

The recent failures of Monarch (as of 2 October 2017) and Air Berlin (as of 28

October 2017) have impacted the traffic in the UK and Germany at the end of

2017. Such recent failures are unlikely to be captured in the forecast trends.

We expect the slots to be taken over for the summer schedule: by either

Germanwings or Lufthansa for Air Berlin, and by Jet2 for Monarch summer

destinations. The event is currently considered as a correction of the past and a

reduction of the forecast during the first months of the forecast. The impact has

been estimated by evaluating the evolution of the market share of airlines that

are assumed to have taken over some slots compared to their previous market

share when Monarch or Air Berlin were still operating flights.

The failure of Darwin Airlines in Switzerland impacted the domestic traffic in

Switzerland from mid-December 2017 with a significant decline in flights. Its

impact was not corrected as it is expected to last. Swiss domestic traffic

represents around 2% of the total IFR movements in Switzerland.

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Ryanair Capacity Cuts

As an answer to a risk of cancellations during the winter schedules due to a

pilot shortage, Ryanair has cancelled substantial numbers of flights during the

winter period (i.e. November 2017 to March 2018). These flights are assumed

to resume from the beginning of the summer schedules. Similar to the airline

failures, this event is currently considered as a correction of the past and a

reduction of the forecast during the first three months of the forecast (January

to March 2018 when the winter schedule is still active). The number of

cancellations has been estimated by considering during a given week the

destinations (i.e. State and flow) where Ryanair’s flights have declined

compared to a similar week a year ago (i.e. 52 weeks ago).

Low-Cost Long-Haul Flights

To account for the expansion of low-cost airlines (Norwegian, WOW Air,

LEVEL…) into long-haul routes, an assumption has been developed to

increase the arrivals and departures on the North Atlantic flow by 2pp, and the

arrivals/departures on the mid-Atlantic flow by 4pp until the end of the forecast

period. The development of traffic to South Atlantic is considered to be already

taken into account in the trends.

Recovery of traffic between Western Europe and Turkey

We have looked at the volume of flights between Western Europe and Turkey

that have been lost during the last two years to assess the additional

percentage of growth that could be assumed on Turkey arrivals and departures

if traffic were fully back to 2015 levels. We note that traffic between Russia and

Turkey recovered within one year. For the forecast, we have built 3 scenarios:

Baseline forecast assumes a full recovery of traffic over the next four years;

High forecast assumes a full recovery of traffic in two years;

Low forecast assumes a full recovery by the end of the forecast period (i.e. 7 years).

Recovery of traffic between the Russian Federation and Egypt

Since November 2015, the Russian Federation banned air traffic with Egypt

following the explosion on a Russian airplane that killed 224 passengers en

route from Cairo to Moscow. In mid-December 2017, Russian Minister of

Transport and Egyptian Minister of Civil Aviation signed an agreement in

Moscow to resume regular flights between the two countries. We have

assumed a boost from the summer schedule on overflights for all states that

were overflown before the ban. The boost has been estimated by looking at the

market share of those flights (i.e. flows between the Russian Federation and

Egypt) compared to the total number of overflights of those states before

November 2015. Figure 24 shows the adjustments in overflights taken into

account in the monthly forecast of the first two years.

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Figure 23. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone7. Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 18/02/2018

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Armenia Arr/Dep H 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100

B 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100

L 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100

Austria Arr/Dep H 0.998 . . . . . .

B 0.997 . . . . . .

L 0.995 . . . . . .

Azerbaijan Arr/Dep H . . 1.000 . . . .

B . . 1.000 . . . .

L . . 1.000 . . . .

Belgium/Luxembourg Arr/Dep H 0.997 . . . . . .

B 0.994 . . . . . .

L 0.991 . . . . . .

Bulgaria Arr/Dep H 0.997 . . . . . .

B 0.994 . . . . . .

L 0.991 . . . . . .

Canada Arr/Dep H 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030

B 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020

L 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

Cyprus Arr/Dep H 0.999 . . . . . .

B 0.999 . . . . . .

L 0.998 . . . . . .

Denmark Arr/Dep H 0.998 . 1.000 . . . .

B 0.995 . 1.000 . . . .

L 0.993 . 1.000 . . . .

France Internal H . . . . . . 1.000

B . . . . . . 1.000

L . . . . . . 1.000

Arr/Dep H 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.007

B 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.007

L 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

Germany Internal H 1.002 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

B 0.998 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

L 0.994 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

Arr/Dep H 1.011 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012

B 1.010 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012

L 1.009 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012

7 Values ‘1.000’ hide adjustments significant for one or two months, but not at an annual level.

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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Greece Internal H 0.985 . . . . . .

B 0.970 . . . . . .

L 0.955 . . . . . .

Arr/Dep H 1.000 . . . . . .

B 1.000 . . . . . .

L 1.000 . . . . . .

Hungary Arr/Dep H . . 1.000 . . . .

B . . 1.000 . . . .

L . . 1.000 . . . .

Ireland Arr/Dep H . . 1.000 . . . .

B . . 1.000 . . . .

L . . 1.000 . . . .

Italy Arr/Dep H . . 1.000 . . . .

B . . 1.000 . . . .

L . . 1.000 . . . .

K Region Arr/Dep H 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.030

B 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020

L 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010 1.010

Lisbon FIR Internal H 0.999 . . . . . .

B 0.998 . . . . . .

L 0.996 . . . . . .

M Region Arr/Dep H 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060

B 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040

L 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020

Netherlands Arr/Dep H . . 1.000 . . . .

B . . 1.000 . . . .

L . . 1.000 . . . .

Poland Internal H 0.990 . . . . . .

B 0.981 . . . . . .

L 0.971 . . . . . .

Romania Arr/Dep H 0.998 . 1.000 . . . .

B 0.997 . 1.000 . . . .

L 0.995 . 1.000 . . . .

Russian Federation Arr/Dep H 1.002 . . . . . .

B 1.001 . . . . . .

L 1.001 . . . . . .

Santa Maria FIR Internal H 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152

B 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152

L 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152 1.152

Arr/Dep H 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029

B 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029

L 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029 1.029

Spain Arr/Dep H . . 1.000 . . . .

B . . 1.000 . . . .

L . . 1.000 . . . .

T Region Arr/Dep H 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060 1.060

B 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040 1.040

L 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020

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2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Turkey Arr/Dep H 1.065 1.090 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095 1.095

B 1.050 1.070 1.086 1.094 1.095 1.095 1.095

L 1.041 1.056 1.069 1.076 1.087 1.094 1.095

UK Internal H 0.997 . . . . . .

B 0.994 . . . . . .

L 0.992 . . . . . .

Arr/Dep H 1.005 1.006 1.007 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

B 1.003 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

L 1.002 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006 1.006

Figure 24. Adjustments for Overflights Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0).

Data last updated: 26/01/2018

State First Month of

Adjustment

Last Month of

adjustment Flow Adjustment

Belarus

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.000

2018-11 2019-03 O 1.005

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.008

2019-11 2019-12 O 1.010

Bulgaria

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.050

2018-11 2019-03 O 1.010

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.013

2019-11 2019-12 O 1.015

Cyprus

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.030

2018-11 2019-03 O 1.055

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.075

2019-11 2019-12 O 1.100

Moldova

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.015

2018-11 2019-03 O 1.025

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.030

2019-11 2019-12 O 1.040

Romania

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.005

2018-11 2019-03 O 1.010

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.015

2019-11 2019-12 O 1.020

Santa Maria FIR

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.040

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.040

Turkey

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.020

2018-11 2019-03 O 1.040

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.050

2019-11 2019-12 O 1.060

Ukraine

2018-04 2018-10 O 1.030

2018-11 2019-03 O 1.050

2019-04 2019-10 O 1.060

2019-11 2019-12 O 1.080

3.3 Low-Cost Effect

The additional flight movements generated by low-cost carrier growth are

represented by the input assumptions given in Figure 25. The figure shows the

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actual (based on 2017 data) and future low-cost market share for each

scenario, and the additional growth of total traffic over the horizon that this low-

cost growth will generate.

This modelling largely affects intra-European flying. For accelerating growth on

the North Atlantic linked to low-cost carriers, see Section 3.2.

Figure 25. Low-Cost effects by Traffic Zone Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling

Comments: Additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-cost market share

Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 05/12/2017

Actual Low Base High

2017 2024 2024 2024

Albania 5% 5% 7% 10%

Armenia 6% 6% 7% 8%

Austria 19% 18% 23% 29%

Azerbaijan 4% 4% 6% 8%

Belarus 0% 0% 2% 5%

Belgium/Luxembourg 19% 18% 23% 29%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 36% 35% 40% 45%

Bulgaria 32% 31% 36% 41%

Canary Islands 53% 53% 56% 61%

Croatia 29% 28% 33% 38%

Cyprus 27% 26% 35% 45%

Czech Republic 32% 31% 40% 50%

Denmark 24% 23% 28% 34%

Estonia 19% 18% 27% 37%

FYROM 47% 42% 46% 51%

Finland 12% 11% 17% 22%

France 29% 28% 33% 38%

Georgia 17% 17% 20% 25%

Germany 34% 34% 35% 36%

Greece 28% 27% 32% 37%

Hungary 48% 47% 54% 63%

Iceland 21% 20% 25% 30%

Ireland 37% 36% 41% 46%

Italy 41% 38% 43% 48%

Latvia 72% 55% 65% 75%

Lisbon FIR 39% 37% 42% 47%

Lithuania 45% 44% 49% 54%

Malta 39% 38% 47% 57%

Moldova 8% 8% 10% 13%

Morocco 26% 24% 38% 54%

Netherlands 28% 27% 32% 37%

Norway 22% 21% 26% 32%

Poland 36% 35% 46% 59%

Romania 32% 31% 36% 41%

Santa Maria FIR 10% 8% 9% 10%

Serbia&Montenegro 15% 14% 19% 25%

Slovakia 35% 34% 42% 51%

Slovenia 6% 5% 14% 24%

Spain 53% 53% 55% 57%

Sweden 20% 20% 23% 27%

Switzerland 19% 18% 23% 29%

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2017 2024 2024 2024

Turkey 30% 29% 34% 39%

UK 48% 47% 49% 51%

Ukraine 7% 6% 12% 18%

3.4 Load Factors

Assumptions about the development of load factors are based on STATFOR

analysis of historical data from EUROSTAT between January 2009 and

December 2016 included. This is a new source for this input that used to be

provided by the Association of European Airlines (AEA) and the values may be

different from those in previous forecasts. Forecasts are estimated using the

recent trends shown in the monthly data. These are used as inputs to the

forecast, and are shown in Figure 26.

Figure 26. Load factors by Traffic Region. Source: Actual: AEA up to 2008, Eurostat from January 2009 to December 2016. Forecast: STATFOR analysis and

modelling.

Comments: 2017 estimated with forecast (Baseline)

Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 16/02/2018


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2024 2024 2024

Asia/Pacific 80.7% 83.2% 80.9% 78.8% 80.5% 78.5% 80.2% 80.7% 80.0% 80.0% 80.4% 82.9% 87.5% 82.9% 76.3%

ESRA East 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 68.3% 70.1% 71.7% 73.9% 74.8% 76.4% 78.1% 78.8% 80.2% 85.0% 85.0% 83.6%

ESRA Mediterranean 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 72.3% 73.7% 75.3% 77.0% 77.8% 79.2% 80.2% 80.9% 82.2% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0%

ESRA North-West 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 72.3% 73.4% 74.0% 75.4% 76.3% 77.2% 77.7% 78.3% 79.3% 85.0% 85.0% 84.7%

Mid-Atlantic 82.1% 84.4% 83.4% 73.3% 78.0% 78.6% 81.5% 82.9% 84.1% 83.2% 84.2% 86.3% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5%

Middle-East 70.9% 73.8% 74.0% 71.3% 74.6% 73.3% 73.7% 75.0% 76.6% 75.5% 75.0% 76.1% 80.0% 79.9% 76.5%

North Atlantic 81.5% 82.2% 81.4% 80.0% 81.8% 80.4% 81.8% 82.3% 81.2% 80.2% 80.4% 80.6% 83.3% 80.6% 77.9%

North-Africa 68.5% 69.9% 70.9% 75.3% 75.3% 73.3% 75.8% 72.8% 75.0% 74.3% 73.8% 74.4% 76.0% 74.4% 72.7%

Other Europe 68.6% 69.2% 67.9% 65.6% 68.4% 69.4% 72.0% 70.8% 73.4% 74.2% 75.7% 78.6% 85.0% 85.0% 81.6%

South-Atlantic 86.3% 85.0% 81.1% 75.9% 78.9% 79.5% 80.7% 81.9% 82.2% 81.4% 82.4% 84.6% 87.5% 87.5% 86.4%

Southern Africa 78.0% 79.2% 79.1% 75.8% 77.2% 76.6% 77.2% 78.8% 78.8% 77.7% 79.9% 81.0% 87.5% 84.6% 81.0%

The load factors forecast is based on the trends but it is combined with

assumptions about maximum limits that can be maintained by the airlines in the

medium-term. The baseline scenario load factors in 2024 are relatively high,

between 74.4% and 87.5% depending on the flow. The forecast assumes that a

maximum of 85% is feasible for short-haul, and 87.5% for long-haul.

3.5 Demographics

The demography model combines the evolution of population age structure with the

age structure of the passengers. The population data are based on the 2017 United

Nations (UN) population forecast update which is the last available. The input data

are shown at traffic zone level in Figure 27 and at traffic region level in

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Figure 28.

Figure 27. Population distribution per Traffic Zone. Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World

Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision

Comments: Only the population age distributions, not numbers (in 000s) are used.

Units: Percentage of TZ population in this age range. Data last updated: 08/01/2018

Actual Base

2015 2025

Age

0 to

14

Age

15

to

19

Age

20

to

24

Age

25

to

34

Age

35

to

44

Age

45

to

54

Age

55

to

59

Age

60

to

64

Age

65

to

74

Age

75+

Age

0 to

14

Age

15

to

19

Age

20

to

24

Age

25

to

34

Age

35

to

44

Age

45

to

54

Age

55

to

59

Age

60

to

64

Age

65

to

74

Age

75+ Albania 18

%

8.6

%

7.7

%

14

%

13

%

14

%

6.9

%

5.3

%

7.4

%

5.1

%

17

%

5.3

%

6.3

%

15% 13

%

12

%

6.3

%

6.9

%

11% 6.7

% Armenia 20

%

6.2

%

8.2

%

18

%

12

%

13

%

7.2

%

4.9

%

5.2

%

5.7

%

19

%

6.7

%

5.6

%

14% 17

%

12

%

5.4

%

6.4

%

9.9

%

5.0

% Austria 14

%

5.3

%

6.4

%

13

%

13

%

16

%

6.9

%

5.5

%

10% 8.8

%

14

%

4.6

%

4.9

%

12% 14

%

13

%

7.8

%

7.6

%

11% 11%

Azerbaijan 23

%

7.5

%

9.3

%

18

%

13

%

14

%

5.5

%

3.5

%

3.1

%

2.6

%

23

%

6.7

%

6.1

%

15% 17

%

12

%

5.8

%

5.8

%

6.7

%

2.3

% Belarus 16

%

4.9

%

6.5

%

16

%

14

%

14

%

7.6

%

6.1

%

7.4

%

6.9

%

18

%

5.5

%

4.8

%

11% 16

%

14

%

6.3

%

6.9

%

11% 6.7

% Belgium/

Luxembourg

17

%

5.6

%

6.2

%

13

%

13

%

14

%

6.7

%

5.9

%

9.0

%

8.9

%

17

%

5.7

%

5.6

%

12% 13

%

13

%

6.6

%

6.6

%

11% 9.8

% Bosnia-

Herzegovina

14

%

6.6

%

6.7

%

14

%

14

%

15

%

7.3

%

6.6

%

8.2

%

7.5

%

14

%

5.0

%

5.1

%

13% 14

%

14

%

6.7

%

7.5

%

12% 8.0

% Bulgaria 14

%

4.2

%

5.5

%

13

%

15

%

14

%

7.0

%

7.0

%

12% 8.3

%

14

%

5.2

%

4.6

%

10% 14

%

16

%

6.8

%

6.6

%

12% 10%

Canary Islands 15

%

4.5

%

4.8

%

12

%

17

%

16

%

6.7

%

5.6

%

9.4

%

9.5

%

13

%

5.3

%

5.0

%

9.7

%

12

%

17

%

7.8

%

7.3

%

11% 11%

Croatia 15

%

5.7

%

5.7

%

13

%

14

%

14

%

7.2

%

7.0

%

9.9

%

9.0

%

14

%

5.4

%

5.0

%

12% 14

%

14

%

6.5

%

7.1

%

13% 10%

Cyprus 17

%

6.7

%

9.3

%

17

%

14

%

12

%

5.6

%

4.9

%

7.5

%

5.3

%

16

%

5.9

%

6.8

%

15% 15

%

14

%

6.1

%

5.7

%

9.2

%

7.0

% Czech Republic 15

%

4.3

%

5.8

%

14

%

17

%

13

%

6.3

%

6.9

%

11% 6.9

%

15

%

5.4

%

4.6

%

10% 14

%

17

%

6.4

%

5.9

%

11% 10%

Denmark 17

%

6.3

%

6.8

%

12

%

13

%

14

%

6.3

%

5.7

%

11% 7.6

%

16

%

5.8

%

6.0

%

14% 12

%

12

%

7.0

%

6.4

%

10% 11%

Estonia 16

%

4.4

%

5.8

%

15

%

14

%

13

%

6.8

%

6.3

%

9.6

%

9.2

%

16

%

6.0

%

4.9

%

10% 15

%

14

%

6.2

%

6.5

%

12% 10%

FYROM 17

%

6.3

%

7.4

%

16

%

15

%

14

%

6.5

%

6.1

%

7.7

%

4.8

%

16

%

5.4

%

5.8

%

13% 15

%

14

%

6.7

%

6.3

%

11% 5.8

% Finland 16

%

5.5

%

6.3

%

13

%

12

%

13

%

6.7

%

6.8

%

12% 8.7

%

16

%

5.6

%

5.4

%

12% 13

%

12

%

6.1

%

6.4

%

12% 12%

France 18

%

5.9

%

5.8

%

12

%

13

%

13

%

6.3

%

6.1

%

9.6

%

9.3

%

17

%

6.0

%

6.0

%

12% 12

%

12

%

6.3

%

6.2

%

11% 11%

Georgia 19

%

6.0

%

7.1

%

14

%

13

%

14

%

6.7

%

5.7

%

7.7

%

7.0

%

19

%

6.4

%

5.3

%

12% 14

%

13

%

6.1

%

6.6

%

11% 6.4

% Germany 13

%

5.0

%

5.6

%

13

%

12

%

17

%

7.3

%

6.2

%

10% 11% 13

%

4.4

%

4.8

%

12% 13

%

12

%

8.1

%

8.0

%

12% 12%

Greece 15

%

5.0

%

5.0

%

13

%

15

%

15

%

6.8

%

5.8

%

9.6

%

10% 12

%

5.3

%

5.1

%

11% 13

%

16

%

7.8

%

7.0

%

12% 11%

Hungary 14

%

5.2

%

6.4

%

13

%

16

%

13

%

7.0

%

7.5

%

10% 7.4

%

14

%

5.2

%

5.2

%

12% 13

%

16

%

6.6

%

5.5

%

12% 9.2

% Iceland 20

%

6.6

%

7.6

%

14

%

13

%

13

%

6.3

%

5.4

%

7.7

%

6.0

%

19

%

6.6

%

6.1

%

14% 13

%

12

%

5.8

%

5.9

%

10% 7.8

% Ireland 22

%

5.7

%

5.4

%

14

%

16

%

13

%

5.5

%

5.2

%

7.9

%

5.4

%

19

%

7.1

%

6.3

%

11% 13

%

15

%

6.0

%

5.8

%

9.2

%

7.4

% Italy 14

%

4.7

%

4.9

%

11

%

14

%

16

%

6.9

%

6.2

%

11% 11% 13

%

4.8

%

4.9

%

10% 11

%

15

%

8.1

%

7.7

%

12% 14%

Latvia 15

%

4.4

%

6.2

%

14

%

13

%

14

%

7.2

%

6.1

%

10% 9.3

%

15

%

5.7

%

4.6

%

10% 14

%

14

%

6.7

%

7.2

%

12% 10%

Lisbon FIR 14

%

5.3

%

5.2

%

12

%

15

%

15

%

6.7

%

6.3

%

11% 10% 12

%

4.9

%

5.3

%

11% 12

%

16

%

7.3

%

7.2

%

12% 12%

Lithuania 15

%

5.8

%

7.1

%

13

%

13

%

15

%

7.3

%

5.8

%

9.4

%

9.3

%

16

%

4.9

%

4.7

%

13% 13

%

13

%

6.9

%

7.4

%

11% 9.8

% Malta 14

%

5.6

%

6.8

%

15

%

14

%

13

%

7.1

%

6.7

%

11% 7.0

%

15

%

4.7

%

4.9

%

13% 15

%

13

%

5.6

%

6.3

%

12% 11%

Moldova 16

%

6.0

%

8.2

%

19

%

14

%

13

%

6.9

%

6.6

%

5.6

%

4.3

%

15

%

5.4

%

5.0

%

14% 19

%

14

%

5.6

%

6.8

%

11% 4.1

% Netherlands 17

%

6.0

%

6.3

%

12

%

13

%

15

%

6.8

%

6.2

%

10% 7.6

%

16

%

5.4

%

5.9

%

12% 12

%

12

%

7.2

%

7.0

%

12% 11%

Norway 18

%

6.3

%

6.7

%

14

%

14

%

14

%

6.1

%

5.5

%

9.4

%

6.9

%

17

%

5.9

%

6.1

%

13% 13

%

13

%

6.6

%

5.8

%

9.8

%

9.0

% Poland 15

%

5.3

%

6.5

%

16

%

15

%

12

%

7.6

%

6.9

%

8.6

%

7.0

%

14

%

5.3

%

4.7

%

12% 16

%

15

%

5.9

%

6.0

%

13% 8.8

% Romania 15

%

5.5

%

5.8

%

14

%

16

%

13

%

7.0

%

6.9

%

9.0

%

8.0

%

15

%

5.5

%

5.4

%

11% 14

%

16

%

7.7

%

5.2

%

12% 8.7

% Russian

Federation

17

%

4.4

%

6.2

%

17

%

14

%

14

%

7.5

%

6.6

%

6.9

%

6.6

%

18

%

5.6

%

4.9

%

11% 17

%

14

%

5.5

%

6.7

%

11% 6.2

% Santa Maria FIR 14

%

5.3

%

5.2

%

12

%

15

%

15

%

6.7

%

6.3

%

11% 10% 12

%

4.9

%

5.3

%

11% 12

%

16

%

7.3

%

7.2

%

12% 12%

Serbia&Montene

gro

17

%

6.1

%

6.5

%

14

%

14

%

13

%

6.7

%

7.4

%

9.4

%

6.8

%

16

%

5.6

%

6.0

%

13% 14

%

14

%

6.2

%

6.0

%

12% 7.8

% Slovakia 15

%

5.3

%

6.7

%

16

%

16

%

13

%

7.0

%

6.6

%

8.5

%

5.6

%

15

%

5.2

%

4.8

%

12% 16

%

16

%

6.2

%

6.3

%

12% 7.4

% Slovenia 15

%

4.6

%

5.2

%

14

%

15

%

15

%

7.3

%

7.1

%

9.5

%

8.5

%

15

%

5.1

%

4.5

%

9.9

%

14

%

15

%

7.1

%

7.0

%

13% 10%

Spain 15

%

4.5

%

4.8

%

12

%

17

%

16

%

6.7

%

5.6

%

9.4

%

9.5

%

13

%

5.3

%

5.0

%

9.7

%

12

%

17

%

7.8

%

7.3

%

11% 11%

Sweden 17

%

5.2

%

7.1

%

13

%

13

%

13

%

5.9

%

5.6

%

11% 8.5

%

18

%

5.8

%

5.5

%

13% 13

%

12

%

6.4

%

5.8

%

10% 11%

Switzerland 15

%

5.2

%

6.1

%

14

%

14

%

16

%

6.6

%

5.5

%

9.7

%

8.3

%

15

%

4.8

%

5.2

%

12% 14

%

13

%

7.5

%

7.1

%

11% 10%

Turkey 26

%

8.5

%

8.1

%

16

%

14

%

11

%

4.5

%

3.7

%

4.8

%

3.0

%

22

%

7.6

%

7.7

%

15% 14

%

13

%

5.3

%

4.5

%

6.6

%

3.8

% UK 18

%

5.8

%

6.4

%

14

%

13

%

14

%

6.1

%

5.4

%

9.8

%

8.3

%

18

%

5.8

%

5.5

%

12% 13

%

12

%

6.6

%

6.4

%

10% 10%

Ukraine 15

%

4.7

%

6.1

%

16

%

15

%

14

%

7.1

%

6.6

%

8.3

%

7.5

%

16

%

5.5

%

4.5

%

11% 16

%

15

%

6.2

%

6.7

%

11% 7.4

%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Figure 28: Population distribution per Traffic Region. Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat

Comments: Only the population age distributions, not numbers (in 000s) are used.

Units: Percentage of TR population in this age range. Data last updated: 08/01/2018

Actual Base

2015 2025

Age

0 to

14

Age

15 to

19

Age

20 to

24

Age

25

to

34

Age

35 to

44

Age

45 to

54

Age

55 to

59

Age

60 to

64

Age

65 to

74

Age

75+

Age

0 to

14

Age

15 to

19

Age

20 to

24

Age

25

to

34

Age

35

to

44

Age

45 to

54

Age

55 to

59

Age

60 to

64

Age

65 to

74

Age

75+

Asia/Pacific 17% 5.8% 7.1% 16% 15% 16% 5.8% 5.7% 6.9% 4.3% 16% 5.6% 5.4% 12% 15% 15% 8.1% 6.6% 9.7% 5.8%

ESRA East 16% 4.7% 6.2% 16% 15% 13% 7.3% 6.7% 7.9% 6.9% 17% 5.5% 4.9% 11% 16% 14% 5.9% 6.4% 12% 7.2%

ESRA Med. 15% 5.0% 5.2% 12% 15% 15% 6.8% 6.1% 10% 9.9% 13% 5.1% 5.1% 10% 12% 15% 7.7% 7.3% 12% 12%

ESRA NW 16% 5.5% 5.8% 13% 13% 15% 6.9% 6.1% 10% 9.7% 15% 5.1% 5.4% 12% 13% 12% 7.3% 7.2% 12% 11%

Mid-Atlantic 28% 9.4% 9.0% 16% 14% 10% 3.8% 3.2% 4.0% 2.9% 24% 8.1% 8.2% 16% 14% 12% 4.7% 3.9% 5.5% 3.6%

Middle-East 30% 8.8% 8.6% 17% 14% 9.8% 3.5% 2.7% 3.3% 2.0% 27% 8.3% 8.0% 16% 15% 11% 4.2% 3.4% 4.4% 2.2%

North Atlantic 19% 6.6% 7.2% 14% 13% 14% 6.8% 5.9% 8.5% 6.3% 18% 6.2% 6.3% 14% 13% 12% 5.9% 6.2% 11% 8.3%

North-Africa 32% 8.8% 8.9% 17% 12% 9.3% 3.6% 2.8% 3.4% 1.8% 31% 8.8% 7.7% 14% 14% 10% 4.0% 3.3% 4.5% 2.1%

Other Europe 17% 4.4% 6.2% 17% 14% 14% 7.5% 6.6% 6.9% 6.7% 18% 5.6% 4.9% 11% 17% 14% 5.5% 6.7% 11% 6.3%

South-Atlantic 24% 8.5% 8.5% 17% 14% 12% 4.6% 3.8% 4.9% 3.1% 21% 7.4% 7.6% 15% 15% 12% 5.3% 4.7% 6.6% 4.2%

Southern Africa 43% 11% 9.0% 14% 9.7% 6.2% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 0.9% 41% 11% 9.3% 15% 10% 6.9% 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 1.0%

On top of the United Nations forecast of population, we also rely on data

related to the propensity8 to fly (see Figure 29) to estimate the future number of

passengers, hence the future traffic demand. Two sets of data were used: data

from the UK CAA based on surveys conducted in 2016 at the five main UK

airports; data from the DGAC France in which propensity data have been

collected over 13 French airports over the period 2015-2016.

Figure 29: Propensity to fly per age group. Source: UK CAA and French DGAC passenger surveys (2015-2016) and UN population forecast (2015 Revision)

Units: Flight Factor (%passengers/%population) per age bracket. Data last updated: 19/01/2018.

Note: base, high and low scenario values are identical


2017 2024 2024 2024

Age 0 to 14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14

Age 15 to 19 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63

Age 20 to 24 1.74 1.85 1.85 1.85

Age 25 to 34 1.79 1.93 1.93 1.93

Age 35 to 44 1.42 1.46 1.46 1.46

Age 45 to 54 1.31 1.47 1.47 1.47

Age 55 to 59 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.23

8 Propensity to fly is the annual number of flights generated per thousand population.

https://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/Content/Standard_Content/Data_and_analysis/Datasets/Passenger_survey/CAA%20Passenger%20Survey%20Report%202014.pdf

http://www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/SDE1-_2311g_-Rapport_internet_DGAC_Resultats_annuels_2014_-2015.pdf

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



2017 2024 2024 2024

Age 60 to 64 1.14 1.03 1.03 1.03

Age 65 to 74 0.76 0.72 0.72 0.72

Age 75+ 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.18

3.6 Airport

The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The airport capacity model

used in the 7-year forecast is based on ‘effective annual capacity in total IFR

flight movements’ figures that are applied to the forecasted total annual traffic

demand at the airports and reduce the final forecasted number of movements

to be within the annual capacity limits of the airports. A comprehensive set of

capacity data has been gathered through the EUROCONTROL Network

Manager Airport Unit’s online tool named the ‘Airport Corner’. The information

coming directly from the airports and validated by the EUROCONTROL Airport

Unit is deemed to be complete, realistic, reliable and of high quality. For

incomplete information, the dataset has been completed by using direct

information from Stakeholders. The data collection process for this forecast has

been updated in January 2018 and covers a set of 114 airports, including the

major ones. To respect the commercial sensitivity of this airport information, it

is not published.

The new (third) airport at Istanbul expected to be operational in the course of

2018 has been modelled in this forecast as a progressive increase in the

capacity of Istanbul Atatürk (LTBA9) until the end of the forecast horizon. We

assumed that LTBA will continue to operate (lesser extent) after the third airport

will open.

The Berlin Brandenburg (EDDB) airport is expected to open in October 2020

and a switch in traffic from Berlin Tegel (EDDT) has been taken into account

(Figure 30).

Some of the passenger traffic previously landing at Amsterdam Schiphol

(EHAM) from the Mediterranean area has been assumed to be progressively

transferred to Lelystad (EHLE) from April 2019. News of possible delays to this

came too late for the forecast.

9 For technical reasons the additional capacity available from the 3

rd airport is currently considered

under LTBA.

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Figure 30. Airport Traffic Switch Source: EUROCONTROL Data and analysis

Comments: Updated for MTF18 inputs. Units: Airport Traffic Switching. Data last updated: 16/02/2018

Low Base High

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Traffic

Type

Traffic

Between

And Region Move To

. 0% 46% 100% . . . 8% 88% 100% . . . 8% 88% 100% . . All EDDT - EDDB

Other EHAM ESRA Med. EHLE 1% 5% 10% 18% 26% 34% 3% 7% 13% 20% 28% 36% 3% 7% 13% 20% 28% 36%

3.7 High-Speed Train Network (HST)

The HST travel times (input data) have been updated for this 7-year forecast. A

review of current state of projects has been conducted; the principal source of

the HST data being the International Union of Railways (UIC10), Wikipedia or

Stakeholder-supplied information (DGAC France, DFS Germany and DHMI

Turkey). The rail projects listed here are only the ones for which improvements

in travel time will be found within the forecast horizon. The impact of high-

speed train will be reduced compared to the February 2017 forecast as many

HST developments have been either cancelled or delayed beyond the scope of

this forecast. For example, in France, the project between Montpellier and

Perpignan has been postponed to a later date by the new government.

Figure 31. High-Speed Train Times that change during the forecast. Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from various sources.

Units: Travel time (minutes). Distances estimated from airport locations.

Data last updated: 15/01/2018

Distance Rail Time (mins) Speed (km/h)

Km 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Amsterdam London H 359 280 . 230 . . . . . 77 . 94 . . . . .

B 359 280 230 . . . . . . 77 94 . . . . . .

L 359 280 230 . . . . . . 77 94 . . . . . .

Ankara Istanbul H 335 240 . . . 180 . . . 84 . . . 112 . . .

B 335 240 . . 180 . . . . 84 . . 112 . . . .

L 335 240 . . 180 . . . . 84 . . 112 . . . .

Sivas H 354 600 . . . . . . 120 35 . . . . . . 177

B 354 600 . . . . . 120 . 35 . . . . . 177 .

L 354 600 . . . . . 120 . 35 . . . . . 177 .

10 UIC website: http://www.uic.org/

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Km 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Erfurt Munchen H 307 265 140 . . . . . . 69 132 . . . . . .

B 307 265 140 . . . . . . 69 132 . . . . . .

L 307 265 140 . . . . . . 69 132 . . . . . .

Nurnberg H 165 172 80 . . . . . . 57 123 . . . . . .

B 165 172 80 . . . . . . 57 123 . . . . . .

L 165 172 80 . . . . . . 57 123 . . . . . .

Frankfurt Bern H 348 230 . . . . . . 200 91 . . . . . . 104

B 348 230 . . . . . 200 . 91 . . . . . 104 .

L 348 230 . . . . . 200 . 91 . . . . . 104 .

Bale

Mulhouse

H 274 170 . . . . . . 140 97 . . . . . . 118

B 274 170 . . . . . 140 . 97 . . . . . 118 .

L 274 170 . . . . . 140 . 97 . . . . . 118 .

London H 641 320 . . . 300 . . . 120 . . . 128 . . .

B 641 320 . . 300 . . . . 120 . . 128 . . . .

L 641 320 . . 300 . . . . 120 . . 128 . . . .

Istanbul Sivas H 682 1260 . . . . . . 300 32 . . . . . . 136

B 682 1260 . . . . . 300 . 32 . . . . . 136 .

L 682 1260 . . . . . 300 . 32 . . . . . 136 .

Karlsruhe Bern H 239 170 . . . . . . 150 84 . . . . . . 96

B 239 170 . . . . . 150 . 84 . . . . . 96 .

L 239 170 . . . . . 150 . 84 . . . . . 96 .

Bale

Mulhouse

H 166 110 . . . . . . 69 91 . . . . . . 145

B 166 110 . . . . . 69 . 91 . . . . . 145 .

L 166 110 . . . . . 69 . 91 . . . . . 145 .

Koln/Bonn Bale

Mulhouse

H 361 230 . . . . . . 200 94 . . . . . . 108

B 361 230 . . . . . 200 . 94 . . . . . 108 .

L 361 230 . . . . . 200 . 94 . . . . . 108 .

Leipzig Frankfurt H 310 210 186 . . . . . . 89 100 . . . . . .

B 310 210 186 . . . . . . 89 100 . . . . . .

L 310 210 186 . . . . . . 89 100 . . . . . .

Munchen H 354 290 195 . . . . . . 73 109 . . . . . .

B 354 290 195 . . . . . . 73 109 . . . . . .

L 354 290 195 . . . . . . 73 109 . . . . . .

Madrid Bilbao H 327 300 . . . . . . 130 65 . . . . . . 151

B 327 300 . . . . . 130 . 65 . . . . . 151 .

L 327 300 . . . . . 130 . 65 . . . . . 151 .

San

Sebastian

H 363 300 . . . . . . 135 73 . . . . . . 161

B 363 300 . . . . . 135 . 73 . . . . . 161 .

L 363 300 . . . . . 135 . 73 . . . . . 161 .

Santiago

de

Compostel

a

H 476 330 . . 180 . . . . 87 . . 159 . . . .

B 476 330 . 180 . . . . . 87 . 159 . . . . .

L 476 330 . 180 . . . . . 87 . 159 . . . . .

Vigo H 455 372 . . 230 . . . . 73 . . 119 . . . .

B 455 372 . 230 . . . . . 73 . 119 . . . . .

L 455 372 . 230 . . . . . 73 . 119 . . . . .

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FEBRUARY 2018



Km 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Munchen Berlin H 481 360 235 . . . . . . 80 123 . . . . . .

B 481 360 235 . . . . . . 80 123 . . . . . .

L 481 360 235 . . . . . . 80 123 . . . . . .

Zurich Milan H 221 210 . . . . 165 . . 63 . . . . 80 . .

B 221 210 . . . 165 . . . 63 . . . 80 . . .

L 221 210 . . . 165 . . . 63 . . . 80 . . .

3.8 Airline Schedules

The schedules data of Innovata LLC from February 2018 have been used in

this forecast up to the end of April 2018 (see Figure 32). Schedules for May-

August 2018 are also shown (in grey) but have not been used in this forecast.

Figure 32. Overview of the Airline Schedule (Innovata LLC, February 2018)

State ADI

11 Growth (vs same month 2017)

FEB18 MAR18 APR18 MAY18 JUN18 JUL18 AUG18

Albania 41% 33% 14% 1% 12% -1% -1%

Armenia 19% 22% 10% 8% 2% -5% -2%

Austria -0% 4% 3% 0% 2% 2% 2%

Azerbaijan 6% 11% 4% 6% 3% -7% -8%

Belarus 6% 9% 6% 6% 5% 10% 9%

Belgium/Luxembourg 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 28% 20% 1% 4% 7% 3% 4%

Bulgaria 2% 7% 15% 13% 8% 5% 4%

Canary Islands 18% 19% 15% 20% 22% 21% 18%

Croatia 10% 9% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7%

Cyprus 5% 7% 7% 4% 2% -2% -3%

Czech Republic 8% 10% 7% 6% 9% 8% 9%

Denmark 2% -1% 8% 3% 3% 5% 6%

Estonia 8% 6% 11% 13% 10% 9% 8%

FYROM 17% 20% 17% 20% 19% 8% 1%

Finland 9% 7% 11% 8% 8% 7% 6%

France 1% 1% -2% -2% -2% -2% -3%

Georgia 32% 39% 34% 26% 21% 15% 15%

Germany 1% 0% 1% -3% -2% -3% -2%

Greece 8% 14% 13% 13% 8% 4% 4%

Hungary 15% 14% 12% 12% 9% 6% 7%

Iceland 10% 9% 8% 20% 15% 12% 19%

11 The growth rates are for Arriving, Departing and Internal flows.

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FEBRUARY 2018


State ADI

11 Growth (vs same month 2017)

FEB18 MAR18 APR18 MAY18 JUN18 JUL18 AUG18

Ireland 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4%

Italy 5% 5% 6% 3% 1% -3% -3%

Latvia 17% 17% 17% 16% 10% 8% 8%

Lisbon FIR 8% 9% 5% 4% 2% -1% -1%

Lithuania 9% 7% 5% 5% 5% 25% 29%

Malta 13% 17% 22% 18% 18% 12% 10%

Moldova 5% 9% 5% -4% -16% -15% -14%

Morocco 13% 13% 9% 2% 11% 6% 4%

Netherlands 4% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

Norway 1% -6% 13% -4% 2% -0% 1%

Poland 11% 12% 12% 10% 6% 4% 4%

Romania 2% 3% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5%

Santa Maria FIR -6% -8% -18% -17% -13% -13% -15%

Serbia&Montenegro 5% 5% 6% 6% 1% -2% -2%

Slovakia 7% 11% 19% 15% -5% -18% -17%

Slovenia 17% 23% 24% 22% 20% 13% 13%

Spain 10% 10% 7% 6% 5% 3% 3%

Sweden -1% -5% 6% 0% 0% 2% -1%

Switzerland -13% -12% -13% -14% -14% -14% -13%

Turkey 6% 8% 5% 6% 7% 1% 0%

Ukraine 11% 13% 14% 7% 1% 1% -1%

UK -1% -0% 0% -1% 0% -0% -0%

3.9 Emissions Trading Schemes

The aviation industry has joined the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) in

2012. In April 2013, the EU decided to temporarily suspend enforcement of the

EU ETS requirements for flights operated in 2010, 2011, and 2012 from or to

non-European countries, while continuing to apply the legislation to flights

within and between countries in Europe. In autumn 2013, the International Civil

Aviation Organization (ICAO) Assembly, mandated by the EU, reached an

agreement to tackle aviation emissions globally. The ICAO Assembly agreed to

develop a global market-based mechanism addressing international aviation

emissions and apply it by 2020: the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme

for International Aviation (CORSIA).

Considering the fact that the scope of the EU ETS application and its impact

was reduced, we have estimated that the impact of an emissions trading

scheme measure on flight demand was small relative to the uncertainty within

the 7-year horizon of this forecast. This component has therefore been de-

activated.

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FEBRUARY 2018


4 Growth in IFR flights to 2024

The forecast is in line with the sustained positive outlook of the economy in

Europe despite the appreciation of the euro and the rise in oil prices. We also

expect:

A full recovery during the summer 2018 schedules of the traffic losses of

the previous winter;

A recovery of traffic between the Russian Federation and Egypt, and of

traffic between Turkey and Western Europe.

For 2018, the growth rate of IFR movements is forecasted to be +3.3%

(±1.3pp) in total terms to reach 10.96 million, in line with the high-growth

scenario of the February 2017 forecast.

The forecast for Europe (ECAC) is available in Figure 33. More details are

provided in Annex 3 and the forecast per state can be found in Annex 4 and

Annex 5. Explanations about this forecast can be found in Sections 4.1 to 4.5.


Figure 33. Summary of the Forecast for Europe.

ECAC 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

AAGR

IFR Flight

Movements (Thousands)

H . . . . 11,089 11,494 12,036 12,425 12,836 13,255 13,669 3.7% 3.3% 3.5%

B 9,770 9,923 10,197 10,604 10,957 11,245 11,524 11,738 11,969 12,176 12,405 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 10,826 10,995 11,058 11,095 11,176 11,226 11,300 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%

Annual

Growth (compared to

previous year

unless otherwise

mentioned)

H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5%

B 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 4.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%

4.1 Short-term outlook (2018-2019)

For 2018, despite the expected appreciation of the euro and the rise in oil

prices, the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has diminished over

the past year and growth will continue. The IFR movements forecast is in line

with this sustained positive outlook of the economy in Europe. We expect:

A full recovery during the summer 2018 schedule of the winter traffic

losses due to the bankruptcies of Air Berlin, Niki and Monarch, as well as

the cancellations by Ryanair;

A recovery of traffic between the Russian Federation and Egypt, that will

further boost the overflights over South-Eastern Europe (e.g. Turkey and

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FEBRUARY 2018


Cyprus), and a progressive recovery of traffic between Turkey and

Western Europe.

As a consequence, the growth rate of IFR movements is still forecasted to be

+3.3% (±1.3pp) in total terms to reach 10.96 million, a similar forecast

compared to what was published in the high-growth scenario of the February

2017 forecast.

For 2019, the growth of IFR movements is expected to stand at 2.6%, reaching

11.2 million (±250 thousands), an upward revision compared to the February

2017 forecast.

We see both upside risks (e.g. high level of sentiment that could boost

demand) and downside risks (e.g. outcome of Brexit negotiations). These are

captured in the range between the high and low forecast. For more discussion

of the risks, see Section 6.

There exists however discrepancies in these revisions for individual states

whose forecast for 2018 and 2019 can be found in Annex 4 and Annex 5.

Figure 34. Flight forecast details for 2018

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FEBRUARY 2018


Figure 35. Flight forecast details for 2019

North-West Axis

The forecast is globally revised upwards for 2018 compared to the February

2017 forecast as a direct consequence of the strong growth observed

throughout the year. The forecast for Germany and UK international traffic (i.e.

arrivals and departures) are also barely affected by the recent weaker growth

rates linked respectively to the bankruptcies of Air Berlin and Niki in Germany

and of Monarch in the UK and stay within the range of the February 2017

forecast. German domestic traffic forecast for 2018 is also similar to what was

expected in February 2017.

Traffic for Finland has on the other hand been revised upwards after a strong

growth of its arrivals and departures in 2017 and a stronger economic outlook

for 2018.

Uncertainties remain with overflight growth over the UK, Ireland and Norway

that have been strongly impacted by variations in the jet stream in the recent

years. Further variation is inevitable, and could mean either upside or downside

risk for these states compared to this forecast.

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FEBRUARY 2018


South-West Axis

Growth in 2018 and 2019 is expected to go on, even though the growth rates

will not be as strong as in recent years. Overall, we observe an upward revision

of the forecast in this area compared to February 2017, but this forecast is

subject to a downside risk as North Africa (e.g. Egypt) and Turkey are coming

back on the list of favourite touristic places. However, the positive economic

outlook in South Europe is also likely to lift the traffic in the region (e.g. Italy), as

is the development of the low-cost market. Traffic between North-West Europe

and South-West should remain strong.

Note that the forecast for the Canary Islands has been boosted by strong

recent growth of its internal flights as a result of state subsidies for locals to

facilitate the communications between islands. As a consequence, the

evolution of this flow is uncertain in the medium-term and subject to a downside

risk. The overflights of the Canary Islands have also recently been strongly

growing as they appear sensitive to the jet stream: the forecast of this flow has

thus been revised upwards but with a downside risk.

South-East Axis

An overall revision upwards is expected in the region, in particular with a boost

in overflights as traffic between Europe and Russia recovers towards Egypt and

Turkey: Turkey and Cyprus overflights are likely to be impacted. The upward

revision was also influenced by the traffic trends of 2017 that saw an increase

in international traffic from Eastern Europe (e.g. Poland, Ukraine, Slovenia).

The recovery of tourist traffic to Turkey as well as the opening of the new

Istanbul airport will boost traffic growth in Turkey, which is expected to be back

as the top contributor to traffic growth in ECAC from 2018.

The upward trend is also influenced by the positive economic outlook in the

region (e.g Romania, Bulgaria) that is likely to bring additional international

traffic there (i.e. arrivals and departures). Note that the local traffic growth in the

region is also likely to be reinforced with the expansion of the low-cost carriers

to states where there is still margin for development.

4.2 Medium-term outlook (2020-2024)

From 2020 onwards, the economic forecast will slow down as it is still subject

to uncertainties, such as the Brexit negotiations. The increase of aircraft sizes

and load factors will also reduce the flight growth rate (compared to the rate of

passenger growth). Consequently, after a few years of annual growth over 2%,

European flight growth is expected to progressively slow down to 1.6% per year

by 2024. Note that 2020 and 2024 show additional growth as they are leap

years and 2021 displays a lower growth in reaction to the greater growth of the

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FEBRUARY 2018


leap year 2020. In 2024, this forecast is for 12.4 million IFR flight movements

(+1.3 million, -1.1 million) in Europe, which is an average annual growth rate of

2.3% and 17% more IFR movements than in 2017.

As Figure 36 and Figure 37 show, the growth is not uniform across Europe.

Figure 36. Average Annual Growth per State, 2024 vs 2017 (Base scenario).

Figure 37. Number of additional movements per day for each State, 2024 vs 2017

(Base scenario).

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FEBRUARY 2018


While the growth (in percentage terms) is much weaker in most of the more

mature markets of Western Europe, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and UK will

still be amongst the states which will see the greatest number of extra flights

per day by 2024. However, the state to see the greatest number of extra flights

per day in 2024 compared to 2017 (1,544 additional flights per day) will be

Turkey whose forecast has been revised upwards (4.9% average annual

growth rate over the 7 years). It will recover the position of fastest-grower in

terms of additional flights that it lost in 2016.

Figure 38 shows the corresponding Figure 36 at Functional Airspace Block

level (FAB).

Figure 38. Average Annual Growth per FAB, 2024 vs 2017 (Base scenario).

Danube FAB and Baltic FAB are expected to have the highest average annual

growth rate (3.7% and 3.2% respectively) over the next seven years. FABEC

and Blue Med FAB are the busiest European FABs with respectively 2,180 and

1,577 additional flights per day in 2024.

Annex 4 and Annex 5 give the details of forecast traffic and growth per State

and areas (ECAC, FAB, EU28…).

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FEBRUARY 2018


4.3 Comparison with previous forecast

Overall, the baseline forecast is higher than the February 2017 and the

uncertainty around the high-and low-scenario has been reduced.

Figure 39 compares the current forecast (MTF18) for total Europe with the

previous seven-year forecast issued in February 2017 (MTF17). We observe

that the current forecast remains in line with the previous high-growth scenario

forecast until 2018 and then follows greater growth rates (the difference will

progressively shrink by 2023) to stand between the high-growth scenario and

the baseline forecast of February 2017.

The uncertainty has now been reduced for the whole forecast period (narrower

low-to-high ranges) and in a much higher extent in the first two years of the

forecast. The economic uncertainty plays a stronger role in later years which

explains the wider range as of 2020.

Figure 39. For total Europe, current forecast is higher than previous forecast (dated

February 2017), with narrower short-term uncertainty.

4.4 High-Speed Train effect

Expansion of the high-speed train network reduces flight growth by 0.3%

over 7 years, though the local effects are more significant.

In the forecast model, reductions in travel time for high-speed train lead to

reductions in the number of flights on the same city pair. The high-speed train

(HST) improvements taken into account in this forecast are detailed in Section

3.7. Some improvement plans of HST have been put on hold or cancelled since

the February 2017 forecast.

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FEBRUARY 2018


The number of IFR movements that are lost to rail because of improvements in

the high-speed train (HST) network are summarised in Figure 40. By 2024, it is

assessed that around 42,100 flights will be removed from the network. The

effect is around 0.3% in total over the 7 years; which is small on the scale of

the network as a whole (see Section 4.5 for the effect of capacity constraints).

The impact of the train is reduced compared to the results observed in absolute

terms in the February 2017 forecast (58,400 reductions in flights over 7 years).

However, on specific city-pairs, the effect can be quite large, especially at the

end of the horizon. As far as the States are concerned, Turkey, Spain, and

Germany will see the largest effects in terms of flights: respectively a reduction

of nearly 20,700 flights, 11,500 flights, and 5,000 flights lost to train in 2024

which corresponds to 2%, 1.2%, and 0.4% of their internal traffic. The impact of

high-speed train in France has been significantly reduced compared to

February 2017 forecast as many HST developments have been either

cancelled or postponed with the change in government and are now out of the

scope of this forecast.

Figure 40. Impact of High-Speed Train. Reduction in flights when High-Speed train

network development is taken into account (impact assessed on forecasts excluding

capacity constraints).

Change in IFR Movements (000s) Percentage Change

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

High -0.8 5.2 10.4 21.6 34.9 37.3 44.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Base 0.4 7.5 17.3 26.8 30.5 36.1 42.1 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Low 0.4 7.3 16.4 25.2 28.4 33.2 38.2 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%


2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Base

France . . . . . 0.3 0.6 . . . . . 0.0% 0.1%

Germany . 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.4 4.7 5.0 . 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Italy . . . 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 . . . 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Netherlands 0.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

Spain . 1.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 7.5 11.5 . 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2%

Switzerland . . . 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 . . . 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Turkey . . 7.7 16.7 17.8 19.1 20.7 . . 0.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

UK 0.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

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FEBRUARY 2018


4.5 Airport capacity impact

Constraints at airports mean that demand for around 206,000 flights

cannot be accommodated by 2024, which is a 1.6% reduction in growth

over the period.

Airports provide their capacity plans to EUROCONTROL through the Airport

Unit of the Network Manager. The published forecast is constrained by these

capacity plans (see Section 3.6). We calculate the effects of airport capacity

constraints by comparing the published forecast with a ‘what-if?’ forecast that

removes airport capacity constraints. The results are shown in Figure 41.

In the base scenario, by 2024 nearly 206,000 flights cannot take place because

the departure or arrival airport has reached its capacity. That is 1.6% of

demand, so represents about 0.2% per year reduction in flight growth. Note

that the forecast with capacity constraints assumes that airports are able to fully

deliver the capacity plans that they have, which has not always been the case.

Industry responds to constraints in a number of ways: airlines by up-gauging

aircraft, or by growing or moving elsewhere; airports by expanding or

enhancing their infrastructure; governments by investing in alternative modes,

for example. The mitigation report (Ref. vii) from Challenges of Growth 2013

considered these mitigation options in more detail, at the 2035 horizon. In

practice, this implies that some of these unaccommodated flights may be

accommodated by other means that are beyond the scope of the present report

to analyse.

Compared to the February 2017 forecast, constraints have a slightly lower

impact at seven years ahead (1.6% in 2024, versus 1.7% in 2023 last year),

and at the shared 2023 horizon have a significantly lower impact: for 2023,

1.2% of the February 2018 forecast (i.e. 150,700 flights) will not be

accommodated by air transportation means, versus 1.7% of the February 2017

forecast (i.e. 197,300 flights).

Figure 41. Impact of airport constraints. Reduction in IFR flights when airport

constraints are taken into account.


2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

High 38.5 85.5 117.5 178.0 251.1 326.8 474.4 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 3.4%

Base 18.4 34.1 61.5 84.4 112.3 150.7 205.7 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.6%

Low 8.4 12.1 15.2 26.2 39.1 56.4 76.1 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%

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FEBRUARY 2018


5 Growth in Service Unit to 2024

5.1 En-route Service Units (TSU)

The growth of en-route service units for 2018 for CRCO16 is expected to be

1.8pp above the February 2017 forecast base scenario. Overall, TSU are

expected to reach 160.1 million service units in 2018 in CRCO16, thus a growth

of 4.5% (±1.4pp).

Overall, TSU are expected to reach 166.1 million service units in 2019 in

CRCO16, thus a growth of 3.7% (±1.2pp).

Figure 42. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.

Total en-route

service units

(Thousands)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total

growth

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

CRCO163

H . . . . . 162,215 170,091 179,728 187,166 194,947 202,873 210,785 38% 5.1% 4.4%

B 125,651 132,920 138,505 144,274 153,194 160,108 166,108 171,627 176,037 180,626 184,947 189,599 24% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 158,005 162,137 164,260 165,874 167,939 169,652 171,652 12% 4.1% 1.1%

RP2Region†

H . . . . . 133,626 139,584 147,021 152,667 158,506 164,365 170,096 34% 4.6% 4.0%

B 106,930 111,670 115,063 120,208 126,928 131,945 136,378 140,515 143,786 147,155 150,264 153,616 21% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 130,261 133,180 134,529 135,541 136,911 137,966 139,268 10% 3.6% 0.9%

Total en-route

service units

(Growth)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

CRCO163

H . . . . . 5.9% 4.9% 5.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 5.1% 4.4%

B 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 4.1% 1.1%

RP2Region†

H . . . . . 5.3% 4.5% 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0%

B 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 4.5% 5.6% 4.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 2.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 3.6% 0.9%

* CRCO16 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2016 of all TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. † RP2Region stands for the sum over all the 30 states that were involved in the EU-wide performance target

setting including Croatia until 2014 (28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland). RP2 series

includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.

In the following years, the strong growth observed in 2018 and in 2019 should

moderate and service units growth should average 2.7% per year over the

period 2020-2024. Part of the growth observed in 2020 and 2024 is due to the

extra growth from the leap year effect (this effect accounts for 0.3% of the

growth).

The total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL member

states (CRCO16) are expected to reach 189.6 million in 2024. This represents

an average annual growth rate of 3.1% over the seven years period 2018-2024.

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Figure 43 compares the evolution of the forecast between the February 2017

forecast and this new forecast release for the CRCO16 grouping up to 2023.

Following the flight forecast revision and the most recent trends in flown

distance and aircraft weights, the total en-route service units (TSU) forecast

has been revised upwards till the end of the forecast horizon compared to the

2017 February forecast. This upward revision of the TSU forecast is bigger

than the revision of the flight forecast as we now expect stronger growth in

weight factors than foreseen in the February 2017 forecast. Indeed, in this last

update of the forecast, we have choosen to go for forecasting models taking

into account the past growth observed instead of going for more conservative

models keeping weight factors more constant over time. The base scenario for

2018 is now expected to be slightly higher than the high scenario of the

February 2017 forecast. This results in a higher TSU forecast for 2023 than

expected in the September 2017 report.

Figure 43. Comparison 2017-2023 of the forecast between the current TSU forecast

and February 2017 for CRCO16 Area.

The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 44. The

detailed forecasts for each State are in Annex 6 to Annex 8.

Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range

(low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes

downside risks (e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks

(e.g. fleet growth of LCC). Section 0 elaborates further on risks.

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Figure 44. Average annual growth of en-route service units between 2017 and 2024.

5.2 Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU)

Underlying growth in TNSU is driven by the same factors that influence en-

route service unit growth (see Section 5.1) with the trend for increasing average

weight having an additional effect. This TNSU forecast is based on the 2017-

2024 IFR flight forecast (Section 4) and uses the CRCO flight database for all

States except for Estonia that provides STATFOR with its own data to capture

the necessary information about the weight of the aircraft. More details about

the TNSU forecast method can be found in Ref. ii. The definition of the terminal

charging zones (TCZ) is based on the known list of airports per TCZ for RP2

provided by States as available in their RP2 performance plans submitted at

the end of 2017 (see Annex 2 for RP2 region definition and TCZ list).

Following the same trend as the en-route service units, the forecast for the

Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU) has been revised upwards for 2018.

The growth rate for TNSU generated in the Terminal Charging zone of the

participating countries in the Performance Scheme (RP2 Region) in 2018 is

expected to reach 3.4%, thus 8.4 million service units.

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By 2024, the TNSUs for RP2 Region are expected to grow by 2.5% per year

and to reach 9.7 million (Figure 45). The detailed results per TCZ are given in

Annex 9 and Annex 10 and summarised in Figure 46.

Figure 45. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region area

as defined.

Total Terminal

Navigation

service units

(RP2 Region)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

TNSU Total

(Thousands)

H . . . . . 8,530.8 8,852.4 9,324.1 9,662.2 10,024.8 10,377.3 10,706.5 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

B 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,484.2 7,854.9 8,156.4 8,433.1 8,665.0 8,906.1 9,104.5 9,314.3 9,489.7 9,686.5 2.5% 3.4% 2.3%

L . . . . . 8,333.7 8,474.9 8,533.2 8,570.7 8,657.9 8,704.8 8,774.9 1.0% 3.1% 0.7%

TNSU

(Growth)

H . . . . . 4.6% 3.8% 5.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

B -0.1% 0.6% 3.0% 5.0% 3.8% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% 2.3%

L . . . . . 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 3.1% 0.7%

Figure 46. Average annual growth and estimated additional daily TNSU generated

between 2017 and 2024 per TCZ.

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6 Risks to the forecast growth

Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-

growth to high-growth) as an aid to managing their own business risks. These

flight forecasts are prepared in conditions of large changes in traffic routings.

For many individual States, these are the biggest risks for traffic growth.

The main sources of uncertainty in the forecast are as follows.

In percentage terms for individual States, the biggest risks concern the route

choices of airlines, which are generally downside risks for some States and

simultaneously upside risks for others, balancing out across Europe as a

whole:

By 2024, there is a significant probability that some flights through Ukraine

will be restored. The past drop in Ukraine overflights generated a

significant reduction in both distances and weights of flights there, which

has generated a greater en-route service units decline than that of the

flights for Ukraine. More generally, the situation has also reduced the

number of overflights in many surrounding states (e.g. Bulgaria and

Romania). The restoration of some flights over Ukraine might produce the

reverse impact and is likely to represent an upward risk for the number of

IFR movements in the region with an additional upward risk for the growth

of Ukraine en-route service units.

Closure of Libyan airspace has reduced Maltese overflights as well as re-

routed traffic to Southern Africa. It is not clear when normal patterns will be

restored. For Malta, this has been partly offset by strong growth between

Russia and Tunisia.

Currently, the Syrian conflict is having an important impact on overflights

across South-East Europe. We have not included an end to this in our

scenario nor intensification, though clearly at some point this network

disruption will clear and the overflight changes reverse. Avoidance of Iraq

and to a lesser extent Sinai is less significant for the forecast.

The immigration crisis linked to the Syrian and Libyan conflict and the

response of the Governments of the 26-country Schengen area is also a

downside risk. Under the rules governing the open travel area,

governments could suspend the Schengen system for two years, which

would deter passenger travel, though to an unknown extent.

Previous years have seen persistent reduction in en route capacity as a

result of the introduction of new ATC systems. This results in tactical and

strategic re-routing of traffic, sometimes enough to affect annual totals.

More changes are on the way, presenting further risks.

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The jet stream influences route choice too, though this is more usually an

effect over days or weeks than over the whole year. Ireland and the Azores

are the most exposed to this risk.

Unit rates are one of the many factors that influence an airline’s choice of

route. Further large changes in rates, as seen in the recent past, could

lead to low single-figure percentage changes in flight counts.

Oil prices remain changeable. With fuel accounting for around 20% of

operating costs, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for

customer (see Section 2.1.4). A surge in oil prices could lead in an

increase of fuel cost, hence an increase of the ticket prices which is a

downside risk.

More generally, future network changes (e.g., new routes) and airlines’

changing choice of routes are not modelled by the forecast.

The economic forecasts used here were updated in January 2018. The

economic outlook remains uncertain, but presents a mix of upside and

downside risks. Economic risks are to some extent synchronised, so do not

balance out across Europe as routing risks do.

Two States, Turkey and Russia, have in some past years been the

predominant drivers of flight growth: this makes overall growth sensitive to the

continued expansion of these two economies. After some economic downturn

in Russia and internal crises in Turkey, the situation seems likely to improve,

representing on balance an upside risk, whereas any deterioration of the

situation could mean a downside risk.

The recent airline failures (Air Berlin, Monarch) and the Ryanair capacity

cuts during Winter 2017/18 have been taken into account for this forecast.

However, the recovery could either be faster or slower than assumed,

representing both an upside and downside risk.

There are also growing competitive pressures for expansion, especially for low-

cost carriers, so as aircraft deliveries accelerate we could see more rapid

expansion, although in our view this is likely to be localised. The high scenario

provides some guidance for this, but only for local, not widespread application.

Load factors remain very high. As traffic begins to grow again, this means that

load factors might be able to absorb less of the passenger growth than they

have in past years. From the present position, the recovery would then come

more rapidly than anticipated. This is therefore an upside risk.

Tourism trends are quite variable. The forecast does not identify which will be

the new holiday ‘destination of preference’ in a given year. Terrorist attacks

have led to more variability in tourism destinations. This is more likely a

downside risk for the concerned countries and a likely upside risk for the

countries that would benefit from the changes. However, all states overflights in

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Europe are likely to be affected, either upwards and downwards, by these

changes.

Terrorist attacks, bans of one country on another one, wars and natural

disasters. These are impossible to predict. Their impact on air traffic could

however be a temporary one, or more significant. Overall, this is a downside

risk for the country impacted by the event.

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INTENTIONALLY BLANK PAGE

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Annex 1 Abbreviations

Abbreviations and acronyms used in this document are available in the EUROCONTROL Air

Navigation Inter-site Acronym List (AIRIAL) which may be found here:

http://www.eurocontrol.int/airial/definitionListInit.do?skipLogon=true&glossaryUid=AIRIAL

http://www.eurocontrol.int/airial/definitionListInit.do?skipLogon=true&glossaryUid=AIRIAL

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Annex 2 Traffic Region Definitions

ECAC

The European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) is an intergovernmental

organization which was established by ICAO and the Council of Europe. ECAC now

totals 44 members, including all 28 EU, 31 of the 32 European Aviation Safety

Agency member states, and all 41 EUROCONTROL member states.

It is now used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts.

Figure 47. Map of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) Area.

EU28

This 7-year forecast report includes EU28, taking the accession of Croatia into

account. The traffic counts exclude Canaries and Azores.

ESRA08

The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as

much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of

sources within the Agency ‘ESRA08’ was introduced in the MTF09 report. It was

used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts up to September

2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_of_Europe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_European_Union

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ESRA08 consists of 34 traffic zones. Traffic zones are defined by an aggregate of

FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account. For

individual States, the differences between charging areas and ACCs can have a big

impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is dominated by

overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights,

so that the difference between a FIR and an ACC definition is small.

Figure 48. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

CRCO11

‘CRCO11’ refers to the sum of all the charging zones formed by the

EUROCONTROL Member States participating in the Multilateral Route Charges

System in 2012. This list comprises: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg

(one single charging zone), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canary Islands, Croatia,

Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, FYROM, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,

Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lisbon FIR, Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands,

Norway, Poland, Romania, Santa Maria FIR, Serbia-Montenegro (one single

charging zone), Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain (Spain continental only), Sweden,

Switzerland, Turkey, UK.

CRCO14



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System in 2014. This list comprises: CRCO11 and Georgia, which joined

EUROCONTROL in 2014.

CRCO16



System in 2016. This list comprises: CRCO14 and Estonia, which joined

EUROCONTROL in 2015.

TRAFFIC REGIONS

The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official

position of the EUROCONTROL Agency. As far as possible, these regions have

been aligned with ICAO statistical and forecast regions. Traffic flows are described

as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed in Figure 49. Each traffic

region is made up of a number of traffic zones (=States), which are indicated by the

first letters of the ICAO location codes for brevity.

Figure 49. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.

ICAO region/country

ESRA North-West EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS

ESRA Mediterranean GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT

ESRA East BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK

Other Europe BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE, LX, UB, UD,

UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW, Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria

FIR

North Atlantic C, K, P

Mid-Atlantic M, T

South-Atlantic S

North-Africa DA, DT, GM, HE, HL

Southern Africa D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)

Middle-East L, O (except OA, OP)

Asia/Pacific A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and areas in Other

Europe)

As far as “Europe” is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in one of

the previous section) and Other Europe. For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a

“North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region

stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an

Eastern region. The ‘Other Europe’ region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along

the border of ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan.

The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is displayed in Figure 50.

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Figure 50. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics.

FUNCTIONAL AIRSPACE BLOCKS

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements

from 2014 to 2020 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of

airspace based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries

(Figure 51). FAB initiatives (definitions) are now frozen according to the targets

defined to improve the performance of the European air traffic management network.

STATFOR defines the FABs based on the FIR12 boundaries. The definition of FAB-

FIR is:

UK-Ireland FAB (Scottish FIR&UIR, London FIR&UIR, Shannon FIR&UIR)

Danish-Swedish FAB (Copenhagen FIR, Sweden FIR)

Baltic FAB (Warszawa FIR, Vilnius FIR&UIR)

BLUE MED FAB (Nicosia FIR&UIR, Athinai FIR&UIR, Brindisi FIR&UIR, Milano FIR&UIR, Roma FIR&UIR, Malta FIR&UIR)

Danube FAB (Sofia FIR, Bucarest FIR)

FAB CE (Zagreb FIR, Budapest FIR, Ljubljana FIR, Praha FIR, Wien FIR, Sarajevo FIR&UIR, Bratislava FIR)

12 Note that the PRU uses the FAB-ANSP definition.

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FABEC (Brussels FIR&UIR, Langen FIR, Munchen FIR, Rhein UIR, Hannover UIR, Bremen FIR, Amsterdam FIR, Bordeaux FIR, Reims FIR, Paris FIR, France UIR, Marseille FIR, Brest FIR, Switzerland FIR, Switzerland UIR)

North European FAB (Tallinn FIR, Finland FIR&UIR, Enor FIR, Riga FIR, Bodo Oceanic FIR)

South West FAB (Canarias FIR&UIR, Lisboa FIR, Madrid FIR&UIR, Barcelona FIR&UIR).

Figure 51. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission.

RP REGIONS

RP1Region, RP2Region and RP3Region are the three regions involved in the

Performance Scheme respectively related to First Reference Period (2012-2014),

Second Reference Period (2015-2019) and Third Reference Period (Period to be

confirmed).

RP1Region: stands for the sum over all the 29 States that were involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the first period, namely: 28 EU Member States plus Norway plus Switzerland minus Croatia.

RP2Region: stands for the sum over all the 30 States that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period, namely: 28 EU Member States plus Norway plus Switzerland. This zone is also called SES-RP2 in this report.

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RP3Region: stands for the sum over all the 30 States that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the third period, namely: 28 EU Member States plus Norway plus Switzerland. This zone is also called SES-RP3 in this report.

The “PScheme” region presented in previous reports (Traffic Tables of the Annexes)

is not reported anymore, as it could introduce some confusion with respect to the

RPRegions above mentioned.

SES-RP2

The SES-RP2 area mentioned in this report is covering the 30 States that are

involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period, namely: 28

EU member States plus Norway plus Switzerland. SES-RP2 includes Canarias but

not Azores. The SES-RP2 zone is also called RP2Region in our reports.

Figure 52. States within SES-RP2 Region in this report (Performance Scheme Region for the

Second Review Period).

TERMINAL CHARGING ZONES

A ‘terminal charging zone’ is an airport or a group of airports for which a cost-based

unit rate is established. The list of aerodromes forming the TCZs during RP2 for the

30 States participating in the SES performance scheme (RP2) can be found in Figure

53.

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Figure 53. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2. Austria

LO_TCZ

LOWG LOWI LOWK LOWL LOWS LOWW

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBAW

EBAW

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBBR

EBBR

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBCI

EBCI

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBLG

EBLG

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBOS

EBOS

Bulgaria

LB_TCZ

LBSF

Croatia

LD_TCZ

LDZA LDZL

Cyprus

LC_TCZ

LCLK LCPH

Czech Republic

LK_TCZ

LKKV LKMT LKPR LKTB

Denmark

EK_TCZ

EKCH

Estonia

EE_TCZ

Finland

EF_TCZ

EETN EETU

EFHK

France

LF_TCZ_1

LFPG LFPO

France

LF_TCZ_2

LFAQ LFBA LFBD LFBE LFBH LFBI LFBL LFBO LFBP LFBT LFBZ LFCR LFGJ LFJL LFJR LFKB LFKC LFKF LFKJ LFLB LFLC LFLL LFLP LFLS LFLX LFLY LFMD LFMH LFMI LFMK LFML LFMN LFMP LFMT LFMU LFMV LFOB LFOH LFOK LFOT LFPB LFPN LFQQ LFRB LFRD LFRG LFRH LFRK LFRN LFRO LFRQ LFRS LFRZ LFSB LFSD LFSL LFST LFTH LFTW

Germany

ED_TCZ

EDDB EDDC EDDE EDDF EDDG EDDH EDDK EDDL EDDM EDDN EDDP EDDR EDDS EDDT EDDV EDDW

Greece

LG_TCZ LGAV

Hungary

LH_TCZ LHBP

Ireland

EI_TCZ EICK EIDW EINN

Italy

LI_TCZ_1 LIRF

Italy

LI_TCZ_2 LIMC LIME LIML LIPZ

Latvia

EV_TCZ EVLA EVRA EVVA

Lithuania

EY_TCZ EYKA EYPA EYSA EYVI

Luxembourg

EL_TCZ ELLX

Malta

LM_TCZ LMML

Netherlands

EH_TCZ EHAM EHBK EHGG EHRD

Norway

EN_TCZ ENBR ENGM ENVA ENZV

Poland

EP_TCZ_EPWA

EPWA

Poland

EP_TCZ_OTHR

EPBY EPGD EPKK EPKT EPLB EPLL EPMO EPPO EPRA EPRZ EPSC EPSY EPWR EPZG

Portugal

LP_TCZ

LPAZ LPCS LPFL LPFR LPHR LPMA LPPD LPPR LPPS LPPT

Romania

LR_TCZ LRBS LROP

Slovakia

LZ_TCZ LZIB

Slovenia

LJ_TCZ LJLJ LJMB LJPZ

Spain

LE_TCZ

GCLP LEBL LEMD LEMG LEPA

Sweden

ES_TCZ_A ESSA

Switzerland

LS_TCZ LSGG LSZH

UK

EG_TCZ_B

EGBB EGCC EGGW EGKK EGLC EGLL EGPF EGPH EGSS

UK

EG_TCZ_C

EGGW EGKK EGLC EGLL EGSS

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Annex 3 ECAC forecast summary

Figure 54. Growth in Europe (ECAC)

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Figure 55. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ECAC)

ECAC

IFR Flight Movements(000s) Annual Growth AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total:

Internal H

. . . . 8,684 8,961 9,326 9,571 9,824 10,077 10,315 . . . . 3.8% 3.2% 4.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9%

B 7,681 7,856 8,141 8,364 8,586 8,778 8,959 9,089 9,228 9,344 9,476 1.4% 2.3% 3.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 2.7% 1.5%

L . . . . 8,487 8,589 8,611 8,611 8,647 8,655 8,681 . . . . 1.5% 1.2% 0.3% -0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 2.3% 0.2%

Total:

Arr/Dep

H . . . . 2,205 2,319 2,483 2,614 2,756 2,906 3,062 . . . . 7.2% 5.2% 7.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.8% 4.0% 5.7%

B 1,908 1,890 1,884 2,058 2,176 2,261 2,351 2,427 2,508 2,589 2,677 2.4% -0.9% -0.3% 9.2% 5.8% 3.9% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4%

L . . . . 2,148 2,205 2,242 2,275 2,313 2,351 2,392 . . . . 4.4% 2.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 2.9% 1.6%

Total:

Overflight

H . . . . 200 213 227 240 256 272 292 . . . . 9.9% 6.6% 6.6% 5.9% 6.3% 6.6% 7.1% 7.0% 3.3% 6.5%

B 181 177 172 182 196 206 215 223 232 242 252 9.9% -2.2% -3.2% 5.8% 7.7% 5.4% 4.2% 3.8% 4.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.8% 2.6% 4.1%

L . . . . 192 200 205 210 215 220 226 . . . . 5.6% 4.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 2.0% 2.5%

Grand

Total

H . . . . 11,089 11,494 12,036 12,425 12,836 13,255 13,669 . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5%

B 9,770 9,923 10,197 10,604 10,957 11,245 11,524 11,738 11,969 12,176 12,405 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 4.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 10,826 10,995 11,058 11,095 11,176 11,226 11,300 . . . . 2.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%

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Figure 56. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ECAC.

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth AAGR

2018-

2024 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

1 ESRA

North-W

ESRA

North-W

H . . . . 3536.1 3569.2 3637.9 3677.0 3716.6 3753.7 3781.3 . . . . 1.4% 0.9% 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2%

B 3467.5 3462.4 3493.9 3486.7 3509.6 3525.3 3552.5 3564.8 3582.7 3591.1 3605.3 -0.7% -0.1% 0.9% -0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5%

L . . . . 3481.0 3475.9 3462.2 3435.3 3432.0 3414.3 3405.8 . . . . -0.2% -0.1% -0.4% -0.8% -0.1% -0.5% -0.2% -0.3%

2 ESRA

Mediter

ESRA

North-W

H . . . . 2082.1 2164.3 2264.7 2326.0 2387.4 2449.2 2508.7 . . . . 3.9% 3.9% 4.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 3.3%

B 1765.5 1828.8 1929.8 2004.9 2055.8 2113.7 2166.5 2198.5 2227.6 2252.9 2282.3 5.1% 3.6% 5.5% 3.9% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9%

L . . . . 2029.0 2061.9 2067.7 2067.4 2069.6 2068.3 2071.1 . . . . 1.2% 1.6% 0.3% -0.0% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.5%

3 ESRA

Mediter

ESRA

Mediter

H . . . . 1563.6 1636.3 1719.0 1779.5 1845.4 1918.5 1994.9 . . . . 6.7% 4.6% 5.1% 3.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5%

B 1313.4 1372.7 1428.1 1465.4 1544.3 1600.4 1641.9 1674.5 1715.0 1751.7 1792.9 3.7% 4.5% 4.0% 2.6% 5.4% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 2.9%

L . . . . 1525.8 1562.4 1577.0 1587.4 1603.7 1615.9 1632.0 . . . . 4.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.6%

4 ESRA

East

ESRA

North-W

H . . . . 666.8 702.1 747.2 781.9 815.8 846.4 871.5 . . . . 5.2% 5.3% 6.4% 4.6% 4.3% 3.8% 3.0% 4.7%

B 515.5 546.5 591.9 633.9 656.1 681.5 705.0 727.3 748.7 766.4 784.2 -1.9% 6.0% 8.3% 7.1% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 3.1%

L . . . . 645.5 661.1 665.9 672.0 681.6 685.9 691.1 . . . . 1.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2%

5 ESRA

North-W

North

Atlant

H . . . . 343.7 353.1 371.2 384.0 396.8 410.0 422.0 . . . . 2.7% 2.7% 5.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.4%

B 299.4 311.2 325.0 334.8 340.7 348.4 356.2 361.6 368.7 375.6 382.9 2.5% 3.9% 4.4% 3.0% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%

L . . . . 337.1 342.6 345.0 345.4 347.3 349.3 352.2 . . . . 0.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 4 Seven-year flight forecast per State (IFR movements)

This appendix presents the flight forecast details. On top of the average annual growth rates

(AAGR) over the 7-year horizon, average annual growth rates over the second reference

period (RP2) and third reference period (RP3) of the Performance Scheme have been

added to the tables. The definition of the regions can be found in Annex 2.

Figure 57. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State.

IFR Movements

(thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Albania H . . . . 207 218 232 242 253 264 276 5.2% . .

B 198 202 187 194 204 213 221 227 233 240 247 3.5% . .

L . . . . 201 207 210 213 216 219 223 2.0% . .

Armenia H . . . . 58 61 64 67 70 74 77 5.1% . .

B 51 42 39 55 57 60 62 63 65 67 70 3.5% . .

L . . . . 57 59 60 61 62 63 64 2.3% . .

Austria H . . . . 1,297 1,349 1,414 1,458 1,506 1,557 1,600 3.8% 3.2% 3.5%

B 1,152 1,168 1,174 1,232 1,280 1,317 1,350 1,375 1,401 1,424 1,450 2.3% 2.7% 1.9%

L . . . . 1,263 1,285 1,291 1,294 1,303 1,307 1,313 0.9% 2.2% 0.4%

Azerbaijan H . . . . 154 165 179 192 206 221 237 7.6% . .

B 127 129 135 142 152 160 169 176 185 194 203 5.3% . .

L . . . . 150 156 160 164 169 174 180 3.4% . .

Belarus H . . . . 316 332 351 365 381 396 412 5.0% . .

B 269 263 278 293 311 322 331 337 345 353 361 3.0% . .

L . . . . 307 313 314 315 317 319 322 1.4% . .

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 1,292 1,335 1,398 1,433 1,468 1,500 1,529 3.0% 3.3% 2.7%

B 1,133 1,165 1,188 1,240 1,279 1,311 1,339 1,357 1,375 1,391 1,408 1.8% 3.0% 1.4%

L . . . . 1,264 1,283 1,285 1,283 1,286 1,285 1,287 0.5% 2.5% 0.1%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 383 405 429 447 467 488 509 5.1% . .

B 298 311 319 359 377 394 408 418 429 441 453 3.4% . .

L . . . . 372 383 388 391 396 400 405 1.7% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . 841 892 951 998 1,049 1,100 1,152 5.7% 5.5% 5.2%

B 683 767 758 783 829 868 903 932 960 988 1,017 3.8% 4.9% 3.2%

L . . . . 817 845 860 873 888 901 914 2.2% 4.3% 1.6%

Canary Islands H . . . . 359 375 394 408 422 436 451 4.5% 5.7% 3.8%

B 284 281 310 333 354 365 374 380 386 391 397 2.6% 5.2% 1.7%

L . . . . 349 355 356 356 355 354 354 0.9% 4.6% -0.0%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


IFR Movements

(thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Croatia H . . . . 628 661 701 729 761 794 826 5.0% 4.9% 4.6%

B 520 535 540 587 619 643 665 682 700 717 736 3.3% 4.4% 2.7%

L . . . . 610 626 632 638 645 651 659 1.7% 3.8% 1.0%

Cyprus H . . . . 396 428 468 503 543 585 631 8.4% 7.1% 8.0%

B 304 319 322 360 388 414 438 461 485 509 536 5.9% 6.3% 5.3%

L . . . . 381 401 414 428 442 456 471 3.9% 5.7% 3.3%

Czech Republic H . . . . 861 901 952 994 1,034 1,064 1,090 4.2% 5.2% 3.9%

B 700 746 797 817 849 878 904 928 951 969 989 2.8% 4.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 837 856 862 868 878 882 887 1.2% 4.1% 0.7%

Denmark H . . . . 667 686 715 733 752 770 787 2.8% 2.1% 2.8%

B 619 626 640 647 661 674 687 695 705 713 723 1.6% 1.7% 1.4%

L . . . . 653 660 662 661 662 661 662 0.3% 1.3% 0.0%

Estonia H . . . . 228 239 254 264 276 288 298 4.7% 4.5% 4.5%

B 191 194 200 215 225 233 239 244 250 256 262 2.8% 4.0% 2.4%

L . . . . 222 227 228 228 230 232 234 1.2% 3.4% 0.6%

FYROM H . . . . 179 190 202 211 221 232 242 5.1% . .

B 146 152 146 171 176 185 192 197 203 209 216 3.4% . .

L . . . . 173 180 182 185 188 190 193 1.8% . .

Finland H . . . . 281 287 297 305 314 321 329 3.3% 3.0% 2.7%

B 248 248 247 263 278 282 286 290 294 297 301 2.0% 2.6% 1.3%

L . . . . 275 276 276 275 276 276 276 0.7% 2.2% -0.0%

France H . . . . 3,361 3,472 3,638 3,724 3,812 3,899 3,985 3.0% 3.3% 2.8%

B 2,947 2,992 3,124 3,241 3,323 3,402 3,486 3,539 3,590 3,632 3,676 1.8% 2.9% 1.6%

L . . . . 3,282 3,328 3,338 3,340 3,348 3,349 3,359 0.5% 2.5% 0.2%

Georgia H . . . . 153 165 180 193 208 223 240 7.8% . .

B 116 122 126 142 151 160 169 177 186 195 204 5.3% . .

L . . . . 149 155 160 165 170 175 180 3.4% . .

Germany H . . . . 3,387 3,497 3,648 3,747 3,851 3,961 4,052 3.2% 2.9% 3.0%

B 3,030 3,080 3,146 3,259 3,349 3,428 3,501 3,559 3,621 3,670 3,725 1.9% 2.5% 1.7%

L . . . . 3,309 3,355 3,366 3,369 3,396 3,403 3,417 0.7% 2.1% 0.4%

Greece H . . . . 796 840 890 932 978 1,026 1,078 5.4% 4.4% 5.1%

B 678 713 700 745 785 818 848 874 901 929 959 3.7% 3.8% 3.2%

L . . . . 774 799 811 823 836 850 865 2.1% 3.3% 1.6%

Hungary H . . . . 879 928 986 1,030 1,078 1,126 1,165 5.1% 6.7% 4.6%

B 670 744 776 822 866 904 936 961 987 1,012 1,038 3.4% 6.2% 2.8%

L . . . . 854 881 892 901 913 922 932 1.8% 5.6% 1.1%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


IFR Movements

(thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Iceland H . . . . 213 225 239 251 263 277 291 5.5% . .

B 145 160 180 200 210 219 227 233 240 248 255 3.5% . .

L . . . . 208 214 216 219 222 225 228 1.9% . .

Ireland H . . . . 640 662 684 723 750 778 806 3.8% 4.3% 4.0%

B 537 566 610 621 633 650 665 681 696 711 727 2.3% 3.9% 2.3%

L . . . . 626 637 643 646 652 657 664 1.0% 3.5% 0.8%

Italy H . . . . 1,864 1,936 2,037 2,106 2,180 2,255 2,331 3.9% 2.9% 3.8%

B 1,680 1,696 1,734 1,786 1,840 1,887 1,938 1,972 2,009 2,044 2,083 2.2% 2.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 1,816 1,840 1,846 1,848 1,856 1,860 1,870 0.7% 1.8% 0.3%

Latvia H . . . . 286 299 317 328 341 354 365 4.5% 4.3% 4.1%

B 243 244 246 268 281 290 296 300 306 310 315 2.4% 3.6% 1.7%

L . . . . 277 281 280 279 279 279 279 0.6% 3.0% -0.2%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 647 680 715 740 764 789 815 4.2% 7.2% 3.7%

B 480 505 559 613 638 661 678 690 701 711 722 2.4% 6.6% 1.8%

L . . . . 630 643 644 644 644 643 643 0.7% 6.0% -0.0%

Lithuania H . . . . 295 309 327 338 351 364 376 4.5% 3.7% 4.0%

B 257 260 261 277 290 300 307 311 317 323 328 2.5% 3.1% 1.8%

L . . . . 286 291 291 290 290 291 291 0.7% 2.5% 0.0%

Malta H . . . . 123 132 143 153 163 175 188 7.2% 5.4% 7.3%

B 102 102 110 116 121 128 134 139 145 151 157 4.5% 4.6% 4.2%

L . . . . 119 123 126 128 131 133 136 2.3% 3.9% 2.0%

Moldova H . . . . 54 58 63 67 71 75 80 6.8% . .

B 56 45 42 50 53 56 59 61 63 66 68 4.5% . .

L . . . . 52 54 55 56 57 59 60 2.5% . .

Morocco H . . . . 435 462 499 530 564 602 645 6.6% . .

B 359 361 383 411 428 447 466 483 500 517 535 3.8% . .

L . . . . 422 433 438 443 448 452 458 1.5% . .

Netherlands H . . . . 1,319 1,357 1,409 1,437 1,470 1,500 1,527 2.5% 3.6% 2.4%

B 1,138 1,176 1,241 1,287 1,310 1,338 1,363 1,374 1,390 1,403 1,418 1.4% 3.3% 1.2%

L . . . . 1,296 1,310 1,309 1,302 1,299 1,294 1,293 0.1% 2.9% -0.3%

Norway H . . . . 608 622 641 654 669 680 690 2.2% 0.1% 2.1%

B 619 603 599 591 603 611 619 623 628 633 640 1.1% -0.3% 0.9%

L . . . . 597 600 599 595 592 590 589 -0.1% -0.6% -0.4%

Poland H . . . . 860 908 962 997 1,033 1,070 1,104 4.8% 5.3% 4.0%

B 702 699 755 793 846 882 909 935 960 980 998 3.3% 4.7% 2.5%

L . . . . 833 856 862 868 878 882 888 1.6% 4.1% 0.7%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


IFR Movements

(thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Romania H . . . . 717 760 811 851 894 938 981 5.5% 4.9% 5.2%

B 598 635 621 673 706 739 768 791 815 838 863 3.6% 4.3% 3.1%

L . . . . 697 719 731 741 752 762 772 2.0% 3.8% 1.4%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 169 176 186 193 200 207 215 4.1% 7.2% 4.1%

B 125 136 151 162 167 172 177 181 185 189 194 2.5% 6.7% 2.4%

L . . . . 165 168 170 171 172 174 175 1.1% 6.2% 0.9%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . 695 734 778 811 847 884 920 5.0% . .

B 554 605 619 654 685 714 740 760 781 800 822 3.3% . .

L . . . . 676 695 704 712 721 730 739 1.7% . .

Slovakia H . . . . 547 579 616 644 675 704 731 5.1% 5.8% 4.8%

B 436 468 498 515 539 564 583 599 616 632 649 3.4% 5.3% 2.9%

L . . . . 531 548 555 560 567 573 579 1.7% 4.7% 1.1%

Slovenia H . . . . 415 439 463 480 498 518 535 4.8% 4.8% 4.0%

B 348 347 353 386 409 428 442 452 463 474 485 3.3% 4.2% 2.5%

L . . . . 403 417 420 424 428 431 436 1.7% 3.7% 0.9%

Spain H . . . . 1,995 2,090 2,204 2,281 2,362 2,441 2,518 4.3% 5.7% 3.8%

B 1,587 1,640 1,766 1,880 1,968 2,035 2,096 2,140 2,182 2,216 2,254 2.6% 5.1% 2.1%

L . . . . 1,941 1,983 1,995 2,006 2,016 2,020 2,027 1.1% 4.6% 0.4%

Sweden H . . . . 828 849 879 903 927 949 970 2.6% 2.8% 2.7%

B 739 751 767 808 821 836 851 864 878 890 902 1.6% 2.5% 1.5%

L . . . . 814 823 826 826 832 832 834 0.4% 2.2% 0.3%

Switzerland H . . . . 1,148 1,183 1,238 1,269 1,303 1,335 1,361 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%

B 1,033 1,046 1,069 1,110 1,134 1,158 1,185 1,201 1,219 1,235 1,253 1.8% 2.3% 1.6%

L . . . . 1,120 1,131 1,133 1,133 1,136 1,136 1,140 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%

Turkey H . . . . 1,547 1,657 1,781 1,884 1,996 2,120 2,253 6.9% . .

B 1,269 1,356 1,336 1,416 1,523 1,614 1,690 1,756 1,827 1,900 1,979 4.9% . .

L . . . . 1,502 1,569 1,613 1,649 1,693 1,735 1,779 3.3% . .

Ukraine H . . . . 260 280 304 323 344 365 387 7.6% . .

B 320 213 195 232 255 269 283 295 308 320 332 5.2% . .

L . . . . 250 259 265 270 276 282 288 3.1% . .

UK H . . . . 2,605 2,672 2,774 2,853 2,926 2,996 3,060 2.7% 3.3% 2.7%

B 2,269 2,322 2,449 2,534 2,581 2,627 2,674 2,705 2,739 2,773 2,811 1.5% 3.0% 1.4%

L . . . . 2,556 2,581 2,586 2,587 2,594 2,602 2,614 0.4% 2.6% 0.3%

ESRA02 H . . . . 10,766 11,150 11,668 12,040 12,433 12,833 13,226 3.6% . .

B 9,495 9,667 9,935 10,303 10,640 10,913 11,181 11,384 11,603 11,800 12,018 2.2% . .

L . . . . 10,514 10,674 10,735 10,768 10,844 10,891 10,960 0.9% . .

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


IFR Movements

(thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

EU27 H . . . . 9,973 10,315 10,785 11,114 11,460 11,807 12,140 3.5% 3.3% 3.3%

B 8,783 8,920 9,192 9,543 9,855 10,092 10,332 10,511 10,700 10,863 11,045 2.1% 2.8% 1.8%

L . . . . 9,737 9,870 9,913 9,935 9,992 10,020 10,069 0.8% 2.4% 0.4%

ECAC H . . . . 11,089 11,494 12,036 12,425 12,836 13,255 13,669 3.7% 3.3% 3.5%

B 9,770 9,923 10,197 10,604 10,957 11,245 11,524 11,738 11,969 12,176 12,405 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 10,826 10,995 11,058 11,095 11,176 11,226 11,300 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%

ESRA08 H . . . . 10,863 11,254 11,780 12,155 12,550 12,954 13,350 3.6% 3.2% 3.5%

B 9,604 9,752 10,014 10,393 10,734 11,013 11,285 11,491 11,714 11,913 12,133 2.2% 2.8% 2.0%

L . . . . 10,606 10,770 10,832 10,866 10,943 10,990 11,061 0.9% 2.3% 0.5%

SES-SJU H . . . . 10,384 10,737 11,223 11,566 11,930 12,293 12,646 3.5% 3.2% 3.3%

B 9,192 9,326 9,596 9,944 10,263 10,505 10,751 10,936 11,131 11,300 11,490 2.1% 2.7% 1.8%

L . . . . 10,141 10,275 10,318 10,337 10,394 10,421 10,470 0.7% 2.3% 0.4%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 964 1,015 1,075 1,115 1,156 1,197 1,236 4.8% 5.2% 4.0%

B 788 790 843 889 949 985 1,015 1,042 1,069 1,090 1,110 3.2% 4.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 934 956 962 967 978 982 987 1.5% 4.0% 0.6%

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 2,630 2,754 2,916 3,038 3,171 3,310 3,455 4.8% 3.8% 4.6%

B 2,282 2,327 2,371 2,485 2,593 2,681 2,769 2,837 2,910 2,981 3,060 3.0% 3.3% 2.7%

L . . . . 2,557 2,612 2,637 2,657 2,685 2,710 2,741 1.4% 2.7% 1.0%

Danube FAB H . . . . 1,023 1,082 1,153 1,209 1,269 1,329 1,390 5.6% 5.5% 5.1%

B 829 895 905 951 1,008 1,053 1,094 1,127 1,160 1,192 1,226 3.7% 4.9% 3.1%

L . . . . 993 1,025 1,042 1,055 1,071 1,085 1,099 2.1% 4.3% 1.4%

FAB CE H . . . . 2,279 2,380 2,511 2,606 2,706 2,805 2,891 4.3% 4.3% 4.0%

B 1,928 2,001 2,060 2,153 2,247 2,319 2,388 2,443 2,499 2,550 2,604 2.8% 3.8% 2.3%

L . . . . 2,216 2,260 2,277 2,290 2,312 2,325 2,342 1.2% 3.2% 0.7%

FABEC H . . . . 6,261 6,451 6,730 6,901 7,080 7,260 7,420 3.0% 3.0% 2.8%

B 5,571 5,667 5,848 6,048 6,192 6,324 6,466 6,565 6,667 6,751 6,844 1.8% 2.6% 1.6%

L . . . . 6,119 6,190 6,207 6,209 6,240 6,248 6,270 0.5% 2.1% 0.3%

NEFAB H . . . . 1,078 1,107 1,150 1,179 1,212 1,240 1,267 3.0% 1.4% 2.7%

B 1,030 1,015 1,006 1,031 1,067 1,083 1,101 1,112 1,125 1,137 1,151 1.6% 1.0% 1.2%

L . . . . 1,056 1,061 1,060 1,054 1,052 1,049 1,048 0.2% 0.6% -0.2%

South West FAB H . . . . 2,199 2,302 2,424 2,509 2,597 2,683 2,770 4.3% 5.9% 3.8%

B 1,727 1,782 1,930 2,059 2,170 2,241 2,305 2,351 2,395 2,431 2,471 2.6% 5.3% 2.0%

L . . . . 2,140 2,183 2,195 2,204 2,212 2,214 2,220 1.1% 4.8% 0.3%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 2,648 2,716 2,820 2,904 2,979 3,053 3,120 2.8% 3.4% 2.8%

B 2,299 2,358 2,488 2,576 2,622 2,670 2,718 2,752 2,787 2,822 2,862 1.5% 3.0% 1.4%

L . . . . 2,597 2,623 2,629 2,630 2,637 2,645 2,659 0.5% 2.7% 0.3%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


IFR Movements

(thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 1,091 1,118 1,159 1,188 1,220 1,248 1,275 2.7% 2.2% 2.7%

B 1,005 1,011 1,035 1,061 1,081 1,100 1,119 1,135 1,152 1,167 1,183 1.6% 1.8% 1.5%

L . . . . 1,071 1,081 1,085 1,083 1,089 1,088 1,090 0.4% 1.5% 0.2%

EU28 H . . . . 9,989 10,332 10,803 11,132 11,479 11,827 12,162 3.5% 3.3% 3.3%

B 8,797 8,934 9,207 9,559 9,871 10,108 10,349 10,529 10,718 10,882 11,063 2.1% 2.8% 1.8%

L . . . . 9,753 9,887 9,929 9,951 10,009 10,037 10,086 0.8% 2.4% 0.4%

SES-RP2 H . . . . 10,282 10,627 11,102 11,434 11,785 12,133 12,468 3.4% 3.1% 3.2%

B 9,114 9,243 9,507 9,850 10,162 10,399 10,640 10,819 11,008 11,171 11,352 2.0% 2.7% 1.8%

L . . . . 10,042 10,174 10,214 10,231 10,286 10,310 10,357 0.7% 2.2% 0.4%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 5 Seven-year flight forecast per State (Growth)

This appendix shows the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than

counts of flights.

Figure 58. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State.

IFR Movements (Growth) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Albania H . . . . 6.6% 5.7% 6.2% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 5.2% . .

B -1.1% 1.8% -7.5% 3.8% 5.1% 4.4% 3.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.5% . .

L . . . . 3.7% 3.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% . .

Armenia H . . . . 6.3% 5.0% 5.2% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% . .

B -3.4% -17% -7.6% 40% 5.1% 4.1% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% . .

L . . . . 3.9% 3.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% . .

Austria H . . . . 5.2% 4.0% 4.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 2.8% 3.8% 3.2% 3.5%

B 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 4.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% 2.7% 1.9%

L . . . . 2.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 2.2% 0.4%

Azerbaijan H . . . . 9.0% 6.9% 8.5% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4% 7.6% . .

B -1.2% 1.4% 5.1% 4.6% 7.3% 5.3% 5.3% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.3% . .

L . . . . 5.7% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% . .

Belarus H . . . . 8.0% 4.9% 6.0% 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 5.0% . .

B 5.6% -2.2% 5.5% 5.4% 6.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.3% 3.0% . .

L . . . . 4.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 1.4% . .

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 4.2% 3.3% 4.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7%

B 2.9% 2.8% 2.0% 4.4% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.8% 3.0% 1.4%

L . . . . 1.9% 1.6% 0.1% -0.1% 0.2% -0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.5% 0.1%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 6.6% 5.7% 6.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% 5.1% . .

B 14% 4.2% 2.6% 13% 5.0% 4.3% 3.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.4% . .

L . . . . 3.4% 3.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . 7.4% 6.0% 6.6% 4.9% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 5.7% 5.5% 5.2%

B 24% 12% -1.2% 3.4% 5.8% 4.8% 4.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.8% 4.9% 3.2%

L . . . . 4.3% 3.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 2.2% 4.3% 1.6%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Canary Islands H . . . . 7.9% 4.5% 5.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 4.5% 5.7% 3.8%

B 6.9% -0.9% 11% 7.1% 6.4% 3.0% 2.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 2.6% 5.2% 1.7%

L . . . . 5.0% 1.7% 0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% 0.9% 4.6% -0.0%

Croatia H . . . . 7.1% 5.2% 6.0% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.0% 5.0% 4.9% 4.6%

B 5.5% 3.0% 0.9% 8.7% 5.5% 3.9% 3.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 3.3% 4.4% 2.7%

L . . . . 4.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.7% 3.8% 1.0%

Cyprus H . . . . 10% 8.2% 9.2% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 7.8% 8.4% 7.1% 8.0%

B 9.7% 4.8% 1.0% 12% 7.9% 6.6% 6.0% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 5.2% 5.9% 6.3% 5.3%

L . . . . 6.0% 5.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.9% 5.7% 3.3%

Czech Republic H . . . . 5.4% 4.6% 5.7% 4.3% 4.0% 2.9% 2.5% 4.2% 5.2% 3.9%

B 3.1% 6.5% 6.9% 2.4% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.8% 4.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 2.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% 4.1% 0.7%

Denmark H . . . . 3.2% 2.8% 4.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.8% 2.1% 2.8%

B 0.0% 1.3% 2.1% 1.1% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.4%

L . . . . 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% -0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0%

Estonia H . . . . 6.0% 4.6% 6.2% 4.0% 4.5% 4.3% 3.5% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5%

B 4.6% 1.2% 3.4% 7.5% 4.6% 3.3% 2.9% 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 4.0% 2.4%

L . . . . 3.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 3.4% 0.6%

FYROM H . . . . 4.5% 6.4% 6.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% 5.1% . .

B 30% 3.9% -4.3% 18% 2.9% 5.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% . .

L . . . . 1.4% 3.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% . .

Finland H . . . . 6.8% 2.4% 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 3.3% 3.0% 2.7%

B 1.9% 0.0% -0.4% 6.4% 5.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 2.0% 2.6% 1.3%

L . . . . 4.6% 0.5% -0.0% -0.3% 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 2.2% -0.0%

France H . . . . 3.7% 3.3% 4.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 3.0% 3.3% 2.8%

B 1.6% 1.5% 4.4% 3.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2.9% 1.6%

L . . . . 1.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 2.5% 0.2%

Georgia H . . . . 7.8% 7.7% 9.0% 7.3% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.8% . .

B 5.2% 5.5% 2.8% 13% 6.0% 6.0% 5.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 5.0% 5.3% . .

L . . . . 4.5% 4.6% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% . .

Germany H . . . . 3.9% 3.2% 4.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.3% 3.2% 2.9% 3.0%

B 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 3.6% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 1.7%

L . . . . 1.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 2.1% 0.4%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Greece H . . . . 6.8% 5.5% 6.1% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.4% 4.4% 5.1%

B 8.8% 5.1% -1.7% 6.5% 5.3% 4.3% 3.7% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% 3.7% 3.8% 3.2%

L . . . . 3.8% 3.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 3.3% 1.6%

Hungary H . . . . 6.9% 5.6% 6.2% 4.5% 4.7% 4.4% 3.5% 5.1% 6.7% 4.6%

B 12% 11% 4.3% 5.9% 5.3% 4.4% 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 3.4% 6.2% 2.8%

L . . . . 3.9% 3.1% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.8% 5.6% 1.1%

Iceland H . . . . 6.4% 5.3% 6.5% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.5% . .

B 11% 11% 12% 11% 5.0% 4.0% 3.5% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% . .

L . . . . 3.6% 2.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.9% . .

Ireland H . . . . 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 5.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.8% 4.3% 4.0%

B 2.8% 5.4% 7.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 3.9% 2.3%

L . . . . 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 3.5% 0.8%

Italy H . . . . 4.4% 3.8% 5.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.9% 2.9% 3.8%

B 1.9% 1.0% 2.2% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.3%

Latvia H . . . . 6.7% 4.6% 5.9% 3.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1%

B 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 8.9% 5.0% 2.9% 2.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 3.6% 1.7%

L . . . . 3.4% 1.5% -0.3% -0.5% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.0% -0.2%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 5.7% 5.0% 5.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 4.2% 7.2% 3.7%

B 6.8% 5.1% 11% 9.5% 4.2% 3.5% 2.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.4% 6.6% 1.8%

L . . . . 2.8% 2.2% 0.1% -0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 6.0% -0.0%

Lithuania H . . . . 6.4% 4.9% 5.8% 3.4% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0%

B 6.0% 1.2% 0.2% 6.2% 4.8% 3.3% 2.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.5% 3.1% 1.8%

L . . . . 3.2% 1.9% -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 2.5% 0.0%

Malta H . . . . 6.5% 7.5% 8.4% 6.6% 6.9% 7.1% 7.4% 7.2% 5.4% 7.3%

B -6.8% 0.7% 7.1% 5.3% 4.5% 5.6% 5.1% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.2%

L . . . . 2.7% 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 3.9% 2.0%

Moldova H . . . . 7.2% 8.3% 8.0% 6.0% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.8% . .

B -24% -19% -8.0% 20% 5.1% 6.4% 4.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 4.5% . .

L . . . . 3.3% 4.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% . .

Morocco H . . . . 5.9% 6.1% 7.9% 6.3% 6.5% 6.7% 7.1% 6.6% . .

B 7.6% 0.3% 6.3% 7.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% . .

L . . . . 2.6% 2.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% . .

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Netherlands H . . . . 2.5% 2.9% 3.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 3.6% 2.4%

B 2.6% 3.4% 5.5% 3.7% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 3.3% 1.2%

L . . . . 0.7% 1.1% -0.1% -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 2.9% -0.3%

Norway H . . . . 2.9% 2.2% 3.1% 2.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% 0.1% 2.1%

B 1.4% -2.5% -0.8% -1.2% 2.0% 1.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% -0.3% 0.9%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.4% -0.2% -0.7% -0.4% -0.4% -0.2% -0.1% -0.6% -0.4%

Poland H . . . . 8.4% 5.6% 6.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 4.8% 5.3% 4.0%

B 1.4% -0.3% 7.9% 5.0% 6.7% 4.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.0% 1.9% 3.3% 4.7% 2.5%

L . . . . 5.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.6% 4.1% 0.7%

Romania H . . . . 6.5% 5.9% 6.8% 4.9% 5.1% 4.9% 4.6% 5.5% 4.9% 5.2%

B 17% 6.1% -2.2% 8.5% 4.9% 4.6% 3.9% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 3.1%

L . . . . 3.5% 3.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 2.0% 3.8% 1.4%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 4.2% 4.2% 5.4% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 7.2% 4.1%

B 2.8% 8.8% 11% 7.5% 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 6.7% 2.4%

L . . . . 1.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% 6.2% 0.9%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . 6.3% 5.5% 6.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1% 5.0% . .

B 6.9% 9.3% 2.3% 5.6% 4.8% 4.2% 3.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.3% . .

L . . . . 3.3% 2.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% . .

Slovakia H . . . . 6.2% 6.0% 6.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.3% 3.8% 5.1% 5.8% 4.8%

B 9.8% 7.2% 6.4% 3.5% 4.6% 4.6% 3.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 3.4% 5.3% 2.9%

L . . . . 3.1% 3.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.7% 4.7% 1.1%

Slovenia H . . . . 7.5% 5.9% 5.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0% 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.0%

B 5.8% -0.2% 1.7% 9.3% 5.9% 4.6% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 2.5%

L . . . . 4.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 1.7% 3.7% 0.9%

Spain H . . . . 6.1% 4.8% 5.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 4.3% 5.7% 3.8%

B 3.9% 3.3% 7.7% 6.4% 4.7% 3.4% 3.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 5.1% 2.1%

L . . . . 3.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% 4.6% 0.4%

Sweden H . . . . 2.4% 2.6% 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7%

B 1.2% 1.6% 2.2% 5.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 2.5% 1.5%

L . . . . 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% -0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.2% 0.3%

Switzerland H . . . . 3.4% 3.1% 4.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.4% 1.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%

B 1.4% 1.2% 2.3% 3.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 2.3% 1.6%

L . . . . 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% -0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Turkey H . . . . 9.3% 7.1% 7.5% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.9% . .

B 11% 6.8% -1.5% 6.0% 7.6% 6.0% 4.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% 4.9% . .

L . . . . 6.1% 4.5% 2.8% 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 3.3% . .

Ukraine H . . . . 12% 7.6% 8.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.2% 6.1% 7.6% . .

B -35% -33% -8.7% 19% 10% 5.4% 5.2% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% 5.2% . .

L . . . . 7.9% 3.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 3.1% . .

UK H . . . . 2.8% 2.5% 3.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.3% 2.7%

B 2.0% 2.4% 5.4% 3.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 3.0% 1.4%

L . . . . 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 2.6% 0.3%

ESRA02 H . . . . 4.5% 3.6% 4.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% . .

B 2.1% 1.8% 2.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% . .

L . . . . 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% . .

EU27 H . . . . 4.5% 3.4% 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3%

B 1.9% 1.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.8% 1.8%

L . . . . 2.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 2.4% 0.4%

ECAC H . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5%

B 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% 4.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%

ESRA08 H . . . . 4.5% 3.6% 4.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5%

B 1.7% 1.5% 2.7% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 2.8% 2.0%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 2.3% 0.5%

SES-SJU H . . . . 4.4% 3.4% 4.5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3%

B 1.9% 1.5% 2.9% 3.6% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.7% 1.8%

L . . . . 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 2.3% 0.4%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 8.4% 5.2% 6.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 4.8% 5.2% 4.0%

B 1.5% 0.3% 6.6% 5.6% 6.7% 3.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 3.2% 4.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 5.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 1.5% 4.0% 0.6%

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 5.8% 4.7% 5.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.8% 3.8% 4.6%

B 4.0% 2.0% 1.9% 4.8% 4.3% 3.4% 3.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7%

L . . . . 2.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 2.7% 1.0%

Danube FAB H . . . . 7.6% 5.8% 6.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.8% 4.5% 5.6% 5.5% 5.1%

B 9.5% 8.0% 1.0% 5.1% 6.0% 4.5% 3.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.7% 4.9% 3.1%

L . . . . 4.5% 3.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 2.1% 4.3% 1.4%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

FAB CE H . . . . 5.8% 4.5% 5.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.0%

B 4.0% 3.8% 3.0% 4.5% 4.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8% 2.3%

L . . . . 2.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 1.2% 3.2% 0.7%

FABEC H . . . . 3.5% 3.0% 4.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8%

B 1.3% 1.7% 3.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.6% 1.6%

L . . . . 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 2.1% 0.3%

NEFAB H . . . . 4.6% 2.6% 3.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 3.0% 1.4% 2.7%

B 1.8% -1.5% -0.9% 2.5% 3.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 1.2%

L . . . . 2.4% 0.5% -0.2% -0.5% -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% 0.2% 0.6% -0.2%

South West FAB H . . . . 6.8% 4.7% 5.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 4.3% 5.9% 3.8%

B 3.9% 3.1% 8.3% 6.7% 5.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.6% 5.3% 2.0%

L . . . . 3.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% 4.8% 0.3%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 2.8% 2.6% 3.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 2.8% 3.4% 2.8%

B 2.0% 2.5% 5.5% 3.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 3.0% 1.4%

L . . . . 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 2.7% 0.3%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 2.8% 2.5% 3.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 2.2% 2.7%

B 0.6% 0.6% 2.3% 2.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 1.5%

L . . . . 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% -0.1% 0.5% -0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.5% 0.2%

EU28 H . . . . 4.5% 3.4% 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3%

B 1.9% 1.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.8% 1.8%

L . . . . 2.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 2.4% 0.4%

SES-RP2 H . . . . 4.4% 3.4% 4.5% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 3.4% 3.1% 3.2%

B 1.9% 1.4% 2.9% 3.6% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.7% 1.8%

L . . . . 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 2.2% 0.4%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 6 Two-year en-route service units forecast per state

Figure 59. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2018-2019.

Charging Area 2017 Actual

TSU

2018

STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2018/2017

Forecast

Growth

2019

STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2019/2018

Forecast

Growth

2018

States Forecast

TSU

2018

STATFOR/

States

EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,593,652 2,712,154 4.6% 2,787,625 2.8%

2,650,000 2.3%

ED Germany A 14,374,175 14,875,562 3.5% 15,304,963 2.9%

13,242,000 12.3%

LF France 20,862,129 21,469,254 2.9% 22,090,729 2.9%

20,204,000 6.3%

EG UK 11,767,621 12,055,621 2.4% 12,349,948 2.4%

10,758,000 12.1%

EH Netherlands 3,223,221 3,294,525 2.2% 3,375,070 2.4%

3,045,000 8.2%

EI Ireland 4,465,253 4,540,325 1.7% 4,660,326 2.6%

4,184,878 8.5%

LS Switzerland 1,603,674 1,657,884 3.4% 1,696,709 2.3%

1,512,889 9.6%

LP Lisbon FIR 3,777,024 3,928,810 4.0% 4,089,481 4.1%

3,147,209 24.8%

LO Austria 2,973,819 3,100,881 4.3% 3,191,113 2.9%

2,928,000 5.9%

LE Spain 10,440,757 10,930,093 4.7% 11,350,910 3.9%

9,128,000 19.7%

GC Canary Islands 1,602,003 1,707,466 6.6% 1,767,333 3.5%

1,537,000 11.1%

AZ Santa Maria FIR 5,308,501 5,556,401 4.7% 5,773,858 3.9%

4,455,301 24.7%

LG Greece 5,158,194 5,496,550 6.6% 5,780,754 5.2%

4,492,622 22.3%

LT Turkey 15,888,906 17,335,381 9.1% 18,441,086 6.4%

16,419,140 5.6%

LM Malta 915,945 938,820 2.5% 982,445 4.6%

933,000 0.6%

LI Italy 8,631,816 8,920,472 3.3% 9,161,139 2.7%

9,553,591 -6.6%

LC Cyprus 1,727,958 1,863,144 7.8% 1,993,534 7.0%

1,489,197 25.1%

LH Hungary 2,973,195 3,173,881 6.7% 3,345,718 5.4%

2,453,639 29.4%

EN Norway 2,526,846 2,620,617 3.7% 2,666,407 1.7%

2,499,967 4.8%

EK Denmark 1,665,678 1,723,771 3.5% 1,771,612 2.8%

1,608,000 7.2%

LJ Slovenia 524,771 554,343 5.6% 582,242 5.0%

529,770 4.6%

LR Romania 4,756,852 4,990,284 4.9% 5,221,760 4.6%

4,317,155 15.6%

LK Czech Republic 2,823,895 2,941,987 4.2% 3,068,923 4.3%

2,795,000 5.3%

ES Sweden 3,615,171 3,719,193 2.9% 3,793,643 2.0%

3,383,000 9.9%

LZ Slovakia 1,189,020 1,248,353 5.0% 1,311,822 5.1%

1,250,000 -0.1%

LD Croatia 1,799,166 1,887,445 4.9% 1,960,075 3.8%

1,863,185 1.3%

LB Bulgaria 3,513,254 3,761,139 7.1% 3,970,473 5.6%

3,611,824 4.1%

LW FYROM 300,537 309,579 3.0% 328,971 6.3%

301,300 2.7%

LU Moldova 68,990 77,205 11.9% 82,569 6.9%

70,400 9.7%

EF Finland 848,430 903,483 6.5% 920,648 1.9%

843,000 7.2%

LA Albania 453,737 465,888 2.7% 486,035 4.3%

470,850 -1.1%

LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 1,020,313 1,032,854 1.2% 1,072,157 3.8%

1,050,062 -1.6%

UD Armenia 178,052 188,460 5.8% 199,078 5.6%

175,000 7.7%

LY Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR 2,240,900 2,368,894 5.7% 2,470,833 4.3%

2,304,554 2.8%

EP Poland 4,290,520 4,530,464 5.6% 4,706,234 3.9%

4,419,000 2.5%

EY Lithuania 540,776 568,101 5.1% 588,427 3.6%

541,672 4.9%

EE Estonia 865,653 910,305 5.2% 940,094 3.3%

855,350 6.4%

EV Latvia 877,214 919,851 4.9% 948,045 3.1%

867,000 6.1%

UK Ukraine 1,270,383 1,428,932 12.5% 1,500,588 5.0%

. .

UG Georgia 806,695 828,390 2.7% 875,114 5.6%

873,291 -5.1%

GM Morocco 3,136,230 3,255,685 3.8% 3,387,473 4.0%

. .

CRCO11 151,521,963 158,369,135 4.5% 164,292,695 3.7% 145,034,205 9.2%

CRCO14 152,328,658 159,197,525 4.5% 165,167,809 3.8% 145,907,496 9.1%

CRCO16 153,194,311 160,107,829 4.5% 166,107,903 3.7% 146,762,846 9.1%

RP2 Region A 126,927,681 131,944,777 4.0% 136,378,200 3.4% 120,642,948 9.4%

Total 157,600,924 164,792,447 4.6% 170,995,964 3.8% 146,762,846 12.3%

(A) For Germany, hence RP2 Region, the series, includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 70,539 service units concerned for 2017. Estimated

number for the coming years is 75,000 per year.

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Figure 60. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2018-2019.

Charging Area 2017 Actual TSU

2018 STATFOR Forecast TSU

2019 STATFOR Forecast TSU

2017 Actual Exempted SU

in %

2017 Actual Chargeable SU

in %

2018 Chargeable SU

Estimate

2019 Chargeable SU

Estimate

EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,593,652 2,712,154 2,787,625 0.6% 99.4% 2,695,300 2,770,300

ED Germany A 14,374,175 14,875,562 15,304,963 0.9% 99.1% 14,745,200 15,170,800

LF France 20,862,129 21,469,254 22,090,729 0.9% 99.1% 21,274,500 21,890,400

EG UK 11,767,621 12,055,621 12,349,948 1.3% 98.7% 11,893,800 12,184,200

EH Netherlands 3,223,221 3,294,525 3,375,070 1.2% 98.8% 3,255,900 3,335,500

EI Ireland 4,465,253 4,540,325 4,660,326 1.1% 98.9% 4,490,800 4,609,500

LS Switzerland 1,603,674 1,657,884 1,696,709 0.2% 99.8% 1,654,300 1,693,000

LP Lisbon FIR 3,777,024 3,928,810 4,089,481 0.9% 99.1% 3,891,800 4,051,000

LO Austria 2,973,819 3,100,881 3,191,113 0.4% 99.6% 3,087,400 3,177,200

LE Spain 10,440,757 10,930,093 11,350,910 0.9% 99.1% 10,831,200 11,248,200

GC Canary Islands 1,602,003 1,707,466 1,767,333 0.7% 99.3% 1,694,700 1,754,100

AZ Santa Maria FIR 5,308,501 5,556,401 5,773,858 1.8% 98.2% 5,454,500 5,667,900

LG Greece 5,158,194 5,496,550 5,780,754 2.0% 98.0% 5,389,100 5,667,700

LT Turkey 15,888,906 17,335,381 18,441,086 0.8% 99.2% 17,188,600 18,284,900

LM Malta 915,945 938,820 982,445 3.9% 96.1% 901,800 943,700

LI Italy 8,631,816 8,920,472 9,161,139 1.7% 98.3% 8,765,300 9,001,700

LC Cyprus 1,727,958 1,863,144 1,993,534 1.4% 98.6% 1,837,600 1,966,200

LH Hungary 2,973,195 3,173,881 3,345,718 1.1% 98.9% 3,138,100 3,308,000

EN Norway 2,526,846 2,620,617 2,666,407 0.8% 99.2% 2,599,600 2,645,000

EK Denmark 1,665,678 1,723,771 1,771,612 0.7% 99.3% 1,711,800 1,759,300

LJ Slovenia 524,771 554,343 582,242 0.3% 99.7% 552,500 580,300

LR Romania 4,756,852 4,990,284 5,221,760 1.0% 99.0% 4,938,800 5,167,900

LK Czech Republic 2,823,895 2,941,987 3,068,923 1.6% 98.4% 2,895,200 3,020,100

ES Sweden 3,615,171 3,719,193 3,793,643 0.5% 99.5% 3,700,100 3,774,200

LZ Slovakia 1,189,020 1,248,353 1,311,822 1.3% 98.7% 1,232,200 1,294,900

LD Croatia 1,799,166 1,887,445 1,960,075 0.3% 99.7% 1,882,400 1,954,800

LB Bulgaria 3,513,254 3,761,139 3,970,473 1.1% 98.9% 3,720,300 3,927,300

LW FYROM 300,537 309,579 328,971 0.1% 99.9% 309,400 328,800

LU Moldova 68,990 77,205 82,569 0.1% 99.9% 77,100 82,500

EF Finland 848,430 903,483 920,648 0.3% 99.7% 900,500 917,700

LA Albania 453,737 465,888 486,035 0.7% 99.3% 462,800 482,900

LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 1,020,313 1,032,854 1,072,157 0.1% 99.9% 1,031,500 1,070,700

UD Armenia 178,052 188,460 199,078 0.1% 99.9% 188,300 198,900

LY Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR 2,240,900 2,368,894 2,470,833 0.1% 99.9% 2,366,600 2,468,500

EP Poland 4,290,520 4,530,464 4,706,234 0.6% 99.4% 4,501,200 4,675,800

EY Lithuania 540,776 568,101 588,427 0.6% 99.4% 564,900 585,100

EE Estonia 865,653 910,305 940,094 0.1% 99.9% 908,900 938,700

EV Latvia 877,214 919,851 948,045 0.7% 99.3% 913,400 941,400

UK Ukraine 1,270,383 1,428,932 1,500,588 0.5% 99.5% 1,422,400 1,493,700

UG Georgia 806,695 828,390 875,114 1.1% 98.9% 819,100 865,300

GM Morocco 3,136,230 3,255,685 3,387,473 0.0% 100.0% 3,255,700 3,387,500

CRCO11 151,521,963 158,369,135 164,292,695 1.0% 99.0% 156,736,900 162,599,400

CRCO14 152,328,658 159,197,525 165,167,809 1.0% 99.0% 157,556,000 163,464,700

CRCO16 153,194,311 160,107,829 166,107,903 1.0% 99.0% 158,464,900 164,403,400

RP2 Region A 126,927,681 131,944,777 136,378,200 1.0% 99.0% 130,568,300 134,955,500

Total 157,600,924 164,792,447 170,995,964 1.0% 99.0% 163,142,700 169,284,100

(A) For Germany, hence for RP1 and RP2, series, includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic, 70,539 service units concerned for 2017. Estimated

number for the coming years is previously 75,000 per year.

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 7 Seven-year en-route service units forecast per state (Thousands)

The definition of the regions and FABs can be found in Annex 2.

Figure 61: Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State.

Total service units

(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total

growth

2018-2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-2024

Albania H . . . . . 472 498 526 549 573 599 625 38% . .

B 456 469 484 442 454 466 486 502 517 532 547 563 24% . .

L . . . . . 460 474 480 487 494 501 509 12% . .

Armenia H . . . . . 198 216 233 249 267 286 307 72% . .

B 149 142 126 111 178 188 199 208 216 225 235 244 37% . .

L . . . . . 179 183 186 189 192 195 198 11% . .

Austria H . . . . . 3,149 3,269 3,432 3,542 3,661 3,788 3,897 31% 4.3% 3.6%

B 2,456 2,645 2,739 2,750 2,974 3,101 3,191 3,277 3,341 3,409 3,469 3,535 19% 3.8% 2.1%

L . . . . . 3,053 3,114 3,134 3,147 3,172 3,186 3,205 8% 3.3% 0.6%

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . . 2,739 2,838 2,982 3,065 3,151 3,231 3,306 27% 3.7% 3.1%

B 2,277 2,362 2,454 2,500 2,594 2,712 2,788 2,860 2,909 2,960 3,004 3,050 18% 3.4% 1.8%

L . . . . . 2,684 2,734 2,751 2,760 2,775 2,784 2,799 8% 3.0% 0.5%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . . 1,053 1,109 1,176 1,225 1,279 1,337 1,393 37% . .

B 654 783 870 866 1,020 1,033 1,072 1,113 1,143 1,174 1,205 1,238 21% . .

L . . . . . 1,013 1,036 1,054 1,066 1,080 1,092 1,106 8% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . . 3,822 4,090 4,392 4,661 4,962 5,278 5,611 60% 8.3% 6.5%

B 2,058 2,744 3,223 3,413 3,513 3,761 3,970 4,168 4,348 4,533 4,722 4,926 40% 7.7% 4.4%

L . . . . . 3,702 3,854 3,965 4,067 4,181 4,291 4,403 25% 7.0% 2.7%

Canary Islands H . . . . . 1,738 1,817 1,933 2,025 2,123 2,228 2,344 46% 4.0% 5.2%

B 1,516 1,492 1,402 1,485 1,602 1,707 1,767 1,833 1,883 1,933 1,983 2,037 27% 3.4% 2.9%

L . . . . . 1,677 1,719 1,742 1,759 1,775 1,789 1,807 13% 2.9% 1.0%

Croatia H . . . . . 1,923 2,020 2,148 2,248 2,355 2,468 2,579 43% 2.8% 5.0%

B 1,695 1,760 1,790 1,788 1,799 1,887 1,960 2,036 2,097 2,160 2,221 2,287 27% 2.2% 3.1%

L . . . . . 1,852 1,902 1,932 1,956 1,983 2,007 2,034 13% 1.6% 1.4%

Cyprus H . . . . . 1,884 2,039 2,219 2,393 2,578 2,778 2,995 73% 7.0% 8.0%

B 1,327 1,454 1,548 1,540 1,728 1,863 1,994 2,109 2,226 2,340 2,461 2,590 50% 6.5% 5.4%

L . . . . . 1,843 1,952 2,018 2,090 2,164 2,238 2,314 34% 6.1% 3.5%

Czech Republic H . . . . . 2,983 3,145 3,352 3,524 3,695 3,854 3,998 42% 5.6% 4.9%

B 2,374 2,393 2,532 2,737 2,824 2,942 3,069 3,193 3,306 3,415 3,510 3,607 28% 5.1% 3.3%

L . . . . . 2,901 2,993 3,051 3,102 3,166 3,207 3,250 15% 4.6% 1.7%

Denmark H . . . . . 1,745 1,810 1,897 1,953 2,016 2,075 2,132 28% 3.4% 3.3%

B 1,524 1,532 1,583 1,621 1,666 1,724 1,772 1,817 1,849 1,887 1,922 1,959 18% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . . 1,702 1,732 1,748 1,756 1,770 1,781 1,796 8% 2.5% 0.7%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total

growth

2018-2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-2024

Estonia H . . . . . 925 968 1,027 1,067 1,114 1,162 1,203 39% 4.2% 4.4%

B 741 790 816 834 866 910 940 968 988 1,013 1,036 1,061 23% 3.5% 2.4%

L . . . . . 896 913 921 924 932 939 947 9% 2.9% 0.7%

FYROM H . . . . . 314 338 361 380 400 420 439 46% . .

B 178 246 264 250 301 310 329 343 355 366 377 389 30% . .

L . . . . . 305 320 326 331 336 341 346 15% . .

Finland H . . . . . 917 941 977 1,007 1,038 1,068 1,098 29% 3.4% 3.1%

B 770 796 760 764 848 903 921 941 955 972 987 1,004 18% 3.0% 1.7%

L . . . . . 890 901 907 908 914 916 920 8% 2.5% 0.4%

France H . . . . . 21,658 22,481 23,627 24,315 25,022 25,716 26,392 27% 4.0% 3.3%

B 17,900 18,497 18,868 19,883 20,862 21,469 22,091 22,713 23,142 23,565 23,930 24,318 17% 3.6% 1.9%

L . . . . . 21,277 21,693 21,840 21,939 22,068 22,156 22,293 7% 3.2% 0.5%

Georgia H . . . . . 863 929 1,006 1,080 1,160 1,247 1,341 66% . .

B 747 752 805 791 807 828 875 922 968 1,014 1,063 1,116 38% . .

L . . . . . 794 823 848 874 901 929 958 19% . .

Germany H . . . . . 14,999 15,566 16,302 16,807 17,343 17,876 18,343 28% 3.9% 3.3%

B 12,570 12,881 12,976 13,562 14,374 14,876 15,305 15,692 15,997 16,324 16,592 16,882 17% 3.5% 2.0%

L . . . . . 14,750 15,035 15,138 15,197 15,348 15,413 15,506 8% 3.1% 0.6%

Greece H . . . . . 5,599 5,975 6,350 6,659 6,994 7,351 7,729 50% 5.3% 5.3%

B 4,216 4,618 4,899 4,678 5,158 5,497 5,781 6,012 6,208 6,409 6,613 6,836 33% 4.6% 3.4%

L . . . . . 5,396 5,592 5,702 5,797 5,905 6,009 6,124 19% 3.9% 1.8%

Hungary H . . . . . 3,236 3,465 3,720 3,932 4,163 4,397 4,607 55% 7.6% 5.9%

B 2,101 2,406 2,695 2,788 2,973 3,174 3,346 3,502 3,639 3,782 3,922 4,070 37% 6.8% 4.0%

L . . . . . 3,113 3,228 3,308 3,381 3,463 3,537 3,615 22% 6.1% 2.3%

Ireland H . . . . . 4,589 4,746 4,911 5,191 5,392 5,599 5,809 30% 3.9% 4.1%

B 3,813 3,922 4,182 4,468 4,465 4,540 4,660 4,775 4,896 5,013 5,129 5,256 18% 3.5% 2.4%

L . . . . . 4,491 4,571 4,620 4,657 4,707 4,756 4,816 8% 3.1% 1.0%

Italy H . . . . . 9,068 9,440 9,940 10,289 10,665 11,049 11,435 32% 2.6% 3.9%

B 8,117 8,314 8,172 8,302 8,632 8,920 9,161 9,423 9,608 9,807 9,994 10,204 18% 2.0% 2.2%

L . . . . . 8,773 8,885 8,942 8,976 9,031 9,076 9,141 6% 1.3% 0.6%

Latvia H . . . . . 937 981 1,040 1,077 1,120 1,163 1,201 37% 5.0% 4.1%

B 734 767 802 789 877 920 948 971 985 1,003 1,019 1,036 18% 4.3% 1.8%

L . . . . . 903 917 917 913 914 913 914 4% 3.6% -0.1%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . . 3,968 4,169 4,391 4,556 4,723 4,891 5,069 34% 6.7% 4.0%

B 2,877 3,020 3,150 3,510 3,777 3,929 4,089 4,206 4,290 4,370 4,444 4,527 20% 6.3% 2.1%

L . . . . . 3,890 4,013 4,031 4,040 4,048 4,051 4,063 8% 5.9% 0.2%

Lithuania H . . . . . 584 618 651 672 697 722 746 38% 4.9% 3.8%

B 451 487 492 507 541 568 588 601 610 621 631 641 19% 3.8% 1.7%

L . . . . . 552 559 558 557 557 558 559 3% 2.8% -0.0%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total

growth

2018-2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-2024

Malta H . . . . . 970 1,033 1,110 1,183 1,264 1,353 1,454 59% 7.3% 7.1%

B 735 727 823 905 916 939 982 1,031 1,073 1,119 1,167 1,219 33% 6.2% 4.4%

L . . . . . 908 935 959 980 1,004 1,028 1,054 15% 5.1% 2.4%

Moldova H . . . . . 84 94 102 110 117 125 134 94% . .

B 240 131 74 60 69 77 83 87 90 94 97 101 47% . .

L . . . . . 70 72 73 74 75 76 77 12% . .

Morocco H . . . . . 3,289 3,459 3,702 3,899 4,111 4,338 4,590 46% . .

B 2,550 2,771 2,747 2,937 3,136 3,256 3,387 3,520 3,625 3,731 3,834 3,946 26% . .

L . . . . . 3,223 3,320 3,356 3,385 3,413 3,438 3,469 11% . .

Netherlands H . . . . . 3,327 3,434 3,573 3,659 3,752 3,841 3,919 22% 4.4% 2.7%

B 2,702 2,767 2,893 3,100 3,223 3,295 3,375 3,440 3,472 3,518 3,560 3,606 12% 4.1% 1.3%

L . . . . . 3,261 3,309 3,315 3,306 3,304 3,303 3,308 3% 3.6% -0.0%

Norway H . . . . . 2,656 2,731 2,828 2,899 2,986 3,066 3,150 25% 4.2% 2.9%

B 2,051 2,221 2,314 2,495 2,527 2,621 2,666 2,712 2,739 2,778 2,818 2,865 13% 3.7% 1.5%

L . . . . . 2,586 2,604 2,607 2,596 2,594 2,594 2,600 3% 3.2% -0.0%

Poland H . . . . . 4,593 4,835 5,120 5,326 5,544 5,754 5,952 39% 4.2% 4.2%

B 3,984 3,931 3,880 4,175 4,291 4,530 4,706 4,850 4,983 5,115 5,223 5,330 24% 3.7% 2.5%

L . . . . . 4,468 4,581 4,614 4,645 4,703 4,728 4,760 11% 3.1% 0.8%

Romania H . . . . . 5,075 5,380 5,773 6,093 6,440 6,794 7,149 50% 5.2% 5.8%

B 3,752 4,182 4,571 4,443 4,757 4,990 5,222 5,465 5,671 5,881 6,087 6,304 33% 4.5% 3.8%

L . . . . . 4,907 5,067 5,196 5,304 5,423 5,534 5,647 19% 3.9% 2.2%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . . 5,638 5,891 6,210 6,447 6,703 6,968 7,253 37% 7.2% 4.2%

B 4,021 4,166 4,662 5,040 5,309 5,556 5,774 5,974 6,124 6,281 6,431 6,595 24% 6.7% 2.7%

L . . . . . 5,474 5,657 5,751 5,809 5,878 5,944 6,022 13% 6.3% 1.3%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . . 2,412 2,551 2,692 2,802 2,921 3,045 3,173 42% . .

B 1,639 1,752 1,975 2,131 2,241 2,369 2,471 2,551 2,613 2,674 2,734 2,800 25% . .

L . . . . . 2,326 2,392 2,417 2,433 2,452 2,465 2,480 11% . .

Slovakia H . . . . . 1,266 1,347 1,443 1,523 1,611 1,695 1,776 49% 5.2% 5.7%

B 985 1,044 1,071 1,138 1,189 1,248 1,312 1,370 1,420 1,474 1,526 1,580 33% 4.7% 3.8%

L . . . . . 1,231 1,278 1,306 1,331 1,360 1,385 1,412 19% 4.1% 2.0%

Slovenia H . . . . . 564 602 635 659 686 714 740 41% 5.6% 4.2%

B 411 459 466 502 525 554 582 600 614 629 642 657 25% 4.9% 2.5%

L . . . . . 544 563 568 571 576 579 583 11% 4.2% 0.7%

Spain H . . . . . 11,043 11,600 12,275 12,760 13,258 13,748 14,234 36% 5.8% 4.2%

B 8,447 8,768 8,997 9,761 10,441 10,930 11,351 11,735 12,029 12,311 12,552 12,811 23% 5.3% 2.4%

L . . . . . 10,818 11,108 11,226 11,328 11,426 11,488 11,569 11% 4.8% 0.8%

Sweden H . . . . . 3,765 3,882 4,034 4,154 4,278 4,390 4,497 24% 3.4% 3.0%

B 3,209 3,285 3,355 3,402 3,615 3,719 3,794 3,867 3,931 3,999 4,058 4,119 14% 2.9% 1.7%

L . . . . . 3,673 3,706 3,720 3,722 3,749 3,754 3,765 4% 2.4% 0.3%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total

growth

2018-2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-2024

Switzerland H . . . . . 1,678 1,734 1,816 1,863 1,913 1,962 2,006 25% 4.0% 3.0%

B 1,385 1,427 1,455 1,493 1,604 1,658 1,697 1,739 1,765 1,794 1,818 1,845 15% 3.5% 1.7%

L . . . . . 1,638 1,658 1,665 1,667 1,672 1,675 1,682 5% 3.1% 0.3%

Turkey H . . . . . 17,554 18,882 20,400 21,657 23,021 24,480 26,024 64% . .

B 10,637 12,809 14,182 14,374 15,889 17,335 18,441 19,412 20,226 21,110 21,992 22,936 44% . .

L . . . . . 17,123 18,001 18,597 19,070 19,621 20,143 20,686 30% . .

UK H . . . . . 12,226 12,628 13,120 13,564 13,960 14,355 14,726 25% 4.8% 3.1%

B 9,755 9,979 10,154 10,875 11,768 12,056 12,350 12,607 12,810 13,019 13,225 13,453 14% 4.4% 1.7%

L . . . . . 11,884 12,066 12,128 12,168 12,228 12,293 12,381 5% 3.9% 0.5%

Ukraine H . . . . . 1,514 1,642 1,797 1,925 2,063 2,208 2,359 86% . .

B 4,931 2,771 1,286 1,017 1,270 1,429 1,501 1,590 1,672 1,757 1,839 1,923 51% . .

L . . . . . 1,345 1,363 1,401 1,442 1,487 1,528 1,570 24% . .

ESRA02 H . . . . . 150,177 157,387 166,257 173,118 180,271 187,556 194,845 37% . .

B 116,097 123,048 128,254 133,626 141,920 148,295 153,822 158,940 163,014 167,253 171,254 175,569 24% . .

L . . . . . 146,414 150,259 152,265 153,788 155,715 157,332 159,220 12% . .

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . . 17,521 18,487 19,621 20,523 21,501 22,531 23,613 44% 4.1% 5.0%

B 14,395 15,113 15,441 15,426 16,434 17,219 17,918 18,575 19,115 19,675 20,235 20,849 27% 3.5% 3.1%

L . . . . . 16,919 17,363 17,621 17,844 18,104 18,350 18,633 13% 2.8% 1.4%

Baltic FAB H . . . . . 5,178 5,453 5,771 5,999 6,241 6,476 6,697 39% 4.3% 4.2%

B 4,434 4,418 4,372 4,682 4,831 5,099 5,295 5,451 5,593 5,736 5,854 5,972 24% 3.7% 2.4%

L . . . . . 5,020 5,141 5,173 5,201 5,260 5,285 5,319 10% 3.1% 0.7%

Danube FAB H . . . . . 8,896 9,470 10,166 10,755 11,402 12,073 12,760 54% 6.5% 6.1%

B 5,810 6,925 7,793 7,856 8,270 8,751 9,192 9,634 10,019 10,414 10,809 11,230 36% 5.8% 4.1%

L . . . . . 8,609 8,921 9,161 9,371 9,604 9,824 10,050 22% 5.2% 2.4%

FAB CE H . . . . . 14,174 14,955 15,906 16,653 17,450 18,252 18,991 43% 5.4% 4.9%

B 10,676 11,492 12,164 12,570 13,304 13,940 14,532 15,093 15,561 16,043 16,495 16,975 28% 4.8% 3.2%

L . . . . . 13,707 14,114 14,353 14,554 14,798 14,994 15,207 14% 4.2% 1.5%

FABEC H . . . . . 44,401 46,054 48,300 49,709 51,181 52,626 53,965 27% 4.0% 3.2%

B 36,834 37,934 38,646 40,537 42,657 44,009 45,255 46,443 47,286 48,162 48,903 49,701 17% 3.6% 1.9%

L . . . . . 43,609 44,431 44,708 44,867 45,168 45,331 45,588 7% 3.2% 0.5%

NEFAB H . . . . . 5,434 5,621 5,872 6,050 6,259 6,459 6,652 30% 4.2% 3.4%

B 4,296 4,573 4,692 4,882 5,118 5,354 5,475 5,592 5,667 5,767 5,861 5,966 17% 3.7% 1.7%

L . . . . . 5,275 5,334 5,352 5,341 5,354 5,362 5,381 5% 3.1% 0.2%

South West FAB H . . . . . 16,749 17,587 18,599 19,341 20,105 20,867 21,646 37% 5.8% 4.2%

B 12,840 13,279 13,550 14,756 15,820 16,566 17,208 17,773 18,202 18,614 18,978 19,375 22% 5.3% 2.4%

L . . . . . 16,384 16,840 16,999 17,126 17,249 17,328 17,439 10% 4.9% 0.7%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . . 16,815 17,374 18,031 18,755 19,352 19,953 20,535 27% 4.6% 3.4%

B 13,568 13,902 14,336 15,342 16,233 16,596 17,010 17,382 17,705 18,033 18,354 18,708 15% 4.1% 1.9%

L . . . . . 16,375 16,636 16,747 16,825 16,935 17,048 17,196 6% 3.7% 0.7%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total

growth

2018-2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-2024

DK-SE FAB H . . . . . 5,511 5,692 5,931 6,107 6,295 6,466 6,629 26% 3.4% 3.1%

B 4,732 4,817 4,938 5,023 5,281 5,443 5,565 5,684 5,780 5,886 5,980 6,079 15% 2.9% 1.8%

L . . . . . 5,375 5,438 5,468 5,478 5,519 5,535 5,561 5% 2.5% 0.4%

CRCO88 H . . . . . 86,752 90,174 94,572 97,794 101,002 104,202 107,297 29% 4.6% 3.5%

B 69,718 71,927 73,933 78,425 82,992 85,829 88,438 90,850 92,658 94,498 96,136 97,914 18% 4.2% 2.1%

L . . . . . 84,896 86,677 87,339 87,775 88,402 88,837 89,450 8% 3.8% 0.6%

CRCO11 H . . . . . 160,427 168,194 177,694 185,019 192,673 200,463 208,241 37% 5.1% 4.4%

B 124,162 131,379 136,884 142,648 151,522 158,369 164,293 169,736 174,081 178,598 182,848 187,422 24% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 156,315 160,402 162,491 164,077 166,106 167,784 169,747 12% 4.1% 1.1%

CRCO14 H . . . . . 161,290 169,123 178,701 186,099 193,832 201,710 209,582 38% 5.1% 4.4%

B 124,910 132,130 137,689 143,439 152,329 159,198 165,168 170,659 175,049 179,613 183,911 188,538 24% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 157,110 161,225 163,339 164,951 167,007 168,714 170,705 12% 4.1% 1.1%

CRCO16 H . . . . . 162,215 170,091 179,728 187,166 194,947 202,873 210,785 38% 5.1% 4.4%

B 125,651 132,920 138,505 144,274 153,194 160,108 166,108 171,627 176,037 180,626 184,947 189,599 24% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 158,005 162,137 164,260 165,874 167,939 169,652 171,652 12% 4.1% 1.1%

RP1Region H . . . . . 131,704 137,564 144,872 150,419 156,150 161,898 167,517 34% 4.6% 4.0%

B 105,235 109,910 113,273 118,420 125,129 130,057 134,418 138,479 141,688 144,995 148,043 151,329 21% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 128,409 131,278 132,597 133,585 134,927 135,958 137,234 10% 3.6% 0.9%

RP2Region H . . . . . 133,626 139,584 147,021 152,667 158,506 164,365 170,096 34% 4.6% 4.0%

B 106,930 111,670 115,063 120,208 126,928 131,945 136,378 140,515 143,786 147,155 150,264 153,616 21% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 130,261 133,180 134,529 135,541 136,911 137,966 139,268 10% 3.6% 0.9%

Total H . . . . . 167,017 175,192 185,226 192,990 201,122 209,419 217,735 38% 4.8% 4.4%

B 133,132 138,463 142,538 148,228 157,601 164,792 170,996 176,736 181,335 186,114 190,620 195,468 24% 4.3% 2.7%

L . . . . . 162,573 166,820 169,016 170,701 172,839 174,618 176,691 12% 3.8% 1.2%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 8 Seven-year en-route service units forecast per state (Growth)

Figure 62. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State.

Total service units

(Growth)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Albania H . . . . . 4.1% 5.4% 5.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4.3% 4.7% . .

B 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% -8.7% 2.6% 2.7% 4.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% . .

L . . . . . 1.3% 3.2% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% . .

Armenia H . . . . . 11.2% 9.3% 7.6% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.2% 8.1% . .

B -2.9% -4.5% -11.8% -11.5% 60.1% 5.8% 5.6% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.6% . .

L . . . . . 0.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% . .

Austria H . . . . . 5.9% 3.8% 5.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 2.9% 3.9% 4.3% 3.6%

B -0.5% 7.7% 3.5% 0.4% 8.1% 4.3% 2.9% 2.7% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 3.8% 2.1%

L . . . . . 2.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 3.3% 0.6%

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . . 5.6% 3.6% 5.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.1%

B 2.0% 3.7% 3.9% 1.9% 3.7% 4.6% 2.8% 2.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 2.3% 3.4% 1.8%

L . . . . . 3.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% 3.0% 0.5%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . . 3.2% 5.3% 6.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.6% . .

B -3.8% 19.7% 11.2% -0.4% 17.8% 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% . .

L . . . . . -0.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . . 8.8% 7.0% 7.4% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 8.3% 6.5%

B 1.9% 33.3% 17.5% 5.9% 2.9% 7.1% 5.6% 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.9% 7.7% 4.4%

L . . . . . 5.4% 4.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 3.3% 7.0% 2.7%

Canary Islands H . . . . . 8.5% 4.5% 6.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 5.2% 5.6% 4.0% 5.2%

B -5.2% -1.6% -6.0% 5.9% 7.9% 6.6% 3.5% 3.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.5% 3.4% 2.9%

L . . . . . 4.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.7% 2.9% 1.0%

Croatia H . . . . . 6.9% 5.0% 6.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 5.3% 2.8% 5.0%

B 0.9% 3.9% 1.7% -0.1% 0.6% 4.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0% 3.5% 2.2% 3.1%

L . . . . . 3.0% 2.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4%

Cyprus H . . . . . 9.1% 8.2% 8.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.8% 7.8% 8.2% 7.0% 8.0%

B 1.8% 9.6% 6.4% -0.5% 12.2% 7.8% 7.0% 5.8% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 6.0% 6.5% 5.4%

L . . . . . 6.6% 5.9% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 4.3% 6.1% 3.5%

Czech Republic H . . . . . 5.6% 5.4% 6.6% 5.1% 4.9% 4.3% 3.8% 5.1% 5.6% 4.9%

B 3.0% 0.8% 5.8% 8.1% 3.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 3.6% 5.1% 3.3%

L . . . . . 2.7% 3.2% 2.0% 1.6% 2.1% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 4.6% 1.7%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Growth)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Denmark H . . . . . 4.8% 3.7% 4.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%

B 6.6% 0.5% 3.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.5% 2.8% 2.6% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 2.0%

L . . . . . 2.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 2.5% 0.7%

Estonia H . . . . . 6.8% 4.7% 6.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.3% 3.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.4%

B 2.3% 6.6% 3.3% 2.3% 3.8% 5.2% 3.3% 3.0% 2.1% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 3.5% 2.4%

L . . . . . 3.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 2.9% 0.7%

FYROM H . . . . . 4.5% 7.8% 6.8% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 4.7% 5.6% . .

B 1.9% 38.8% 7.1% -5.3% 20.2% 3.0% 6.3% 4.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.8% . .

L . . . . . 1.6% 4.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% . .

Finland H . . . . . 8.1% 2.6% 3.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1%

B -2.5% 3.3% -4.4% 0.5% 11.1% 6.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 3.0% 1.7%

L . . . . . 4.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 1.2% 2.5% 0.4%

France H . . . . . 3.8% 3.8% 5.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 3.4% 4.0% 3.3%

B 2.2% 3.3% 2.0% 5.4% 4.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 2.2% 3.6% 1.9%

L . . . . . 2.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 3.2% 0.5%

Georgia H . . . . . 6.9% 7.7% 8.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% . .

B 5.4% 0.6% 7.1% -1.7% 1.9% 2.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.7% . .

L . . . . . -1.5% 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% . .

Germany H . . . . . 4.3% 3.8% 4.7% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3%

B 0.5% 2.5% 0.7% 4.5% 6.0% 3.5% 2.9% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% 3.5% 2.0%

L . . . . . 2.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 3.1% 0.6%

Greece H . . . . . 8.5% 6.7% 6.3% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 5.9% 5.3% 5.3%

B -3.3% 9.5% 6.1% -4.5% 10.3% 6.6% 5.2% 4.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 4.1% 4.6% 3.4%

L . . . . . 4.6% 3.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 3.9% 1.8%

Hungary H . . . . . 8.8% 7.1% 7.4% 5.7% 5.9% 5.6% 4.8% 6.5% 7.6% 5.9%

B 3.8% 14.5% 12.0% 3.5% 6.6% 6.7% 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.8% 4.6% 6.8% 4.0%

L . . . . . 4.7% 3.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.8% 6.1% 2.3%

Ireland H . . . . . 2.8% 3.4% 3.5% 5.7% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1%

B 0.2% 2.9% 6.6% 6.8% -0.1% 1.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4% 3.5% 2.4%

L . . . . . 0.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 3.1% 1.0%

Italy H . . . . . 5.1% 4.1% 5.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 4.1% 2.6% 3.9%

B -0.3% 2.4% -1.7% 1.6% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2%

L . . . . . 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.6%

Latvia H . . . . . 6.8% 4.7% 6.0% 3.6% 4.0% 3.8% 3.3% 4.6% 5.0% 4.1%

B 3.8% 4.5% 4.6% -1.6% 11.2% 4.9% 3.1% 2.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 4.3% 1.8%

L . . . . . 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% -0.4% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 3.6% -0.1%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Growth)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Lisbon FIR H . . . . . 5.1% 5.1% 5.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 4.3% 6.7% 4.0%

B 3.4% 5.0% 4.3% 11.4% 7.6% 4.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.6% 6.3% 2.1%

L . . . . . 3.0% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 5.9% 0.2%

Lithuania H . . . . . 8.1% 5.8% 5.3% 3.2% 3.7% 3.6% 3.2% 4.7% 4.9% 3.8%

B 4.9% 8.1% 1.0% 3.1% 6.6% 5.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.5% 3.8% 1.7%

L . . . . . 2.1% 1.3% -0.2% -0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 2.8% -0.0%

Malta H . . . . . 5.9% 6.4% 7.5% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.5% 6.8% 7.3% 7.1%

B 14.7% -1.1% 13.2% 10.0% 1.2% 2.5% 4.6% 4.9% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.5% 4.2% 6.2% 4.4%

L . . . . . -0.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.0% 5.1% 2.4%

Moldova H . . . . . 22.0% 11.3% 9.0% 7.3% 7.2% 6.8% 6.7% 9.9% . .

B 16.8% -45.5% -43.7% -18.9% 15.3% 11.9% 6.9% 5.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 5.6% . .

L . . . . . 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% . .

Morocco H . . . . . 4.9% 5.2% 7.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% . .

B 1.9% 8.7% -0.9% 6.9% 6.8% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.3% . .

L . . . . . 2.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 1.5% . .

Netherlands H . . . . . 3.2% 3.2% 4.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.8% 4.4% 2.7%

B 4.4% 2.4% 4.5% 7.2% 4.0% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 4.1% 1.3%

L . . . . . 1.2% 1.5% 0.2% -0.3% -0.0% -0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 3.6% -0.0%

Norway H . . . . . 5.1% 2.8% 3.6% 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 3.2% 4.2% 2.9%

B 11.1% 8.3% 4.2% 7.8% 1.3% 3.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 3.7% 1.5%

L . . . . . 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% -0.4% -0.1% -0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 3.2% -0.0%

Poland H . . . . . 7.1% 5.3% 5.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2%

B 3.4% -1.3% -1.3% 7.6% 2.8% 5.6% 3.9% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 3.1% 3.7% 2.5%

L . . . . . 4.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 3.1% 0.8%

Romania H . . . . . 6.7% 6.0% 7.3% 5.5% 5.7% 5.5% 5.2% 6.0% 5.2% 5.8%

B 4.9% 11.5% 9.3% -2.8% 7.1% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 4.1% 4.5% 3.8%

L . . . . . 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.5% 3.9% 2.2%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . . 6.2% 4.5% 5.4% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 4.1% 4.6% 7.2% 4.2%

B 3.8% 3.6% 11.9% 8.1% 5.3% 4.7% 3.9% 3.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 6.7% 2.7%

L . . . . . 3.1% 3.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.8% 6.3% 1.3%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . . 7.6% 5.7% 5.5% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 5.1% . .

B -4.7% 6.9% 12.7% 7.9% 5.2% 5.7% 4.3% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 3.2% . .

L . . . . . 3.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.5% . .

Slovakia H . . . . . 6.5% 6.3% 7.2% 5.6% 5.7% 5.3% 4.8% 5.9% 5.2% 5.7%

B 6.9% 6.0% 2.6% 6.2% 4.5% 5.0% 5.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 4.1% 4.7% 3.8%

L . . . . . 3.5% 3.8% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 2.5% 4.1% 2.0%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Growth)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

Slovenia H . . . . . 7.5% 6.6% 5.5% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 3.7% 5.0% 5.6% 4.2%

B -3.3% 11.7% 1.5% 7.6% 4.6% 5.6% 5.0% 3.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 3.3% 4.9% 2.5%

L . . . . . 3.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 1.5% 4.2% 0.7%

Spain H . . . . . 5.8% 5.1% 5.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.8% 4.2%

B 0.0% 3.8% 2.6% 8.5% 7.0% 4.7% 3.9% 3.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 3.0% 5.3% 2.4%

L . . . . . 3.6% 2.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 4.8% 0.8%

Sweden H . . . . . 4.2% 3.1% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.0%

B 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 6.3% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 2.9% 1.7%

L . . . . . 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 2.4% 0.3%

Switzerland H . . . . . 4.6% 3.4% 4.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 3.2% 4.0% 3.0%

B -1.0% 3.0% 1.9% 2.6% 7.4% 3.4% 2.3% 2.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 2.0% 3.5% 1.7%

L . . . . . 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 3.1% 0.3%

Turkey H . . . . . 10.5% 7.6% 8.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 7.3% . .

B 8.4% 20.4% 10.7% 1.4% 10.5% 9.1% 6.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 5.4% . .

L . . . . . 7.8% 5.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 3.8% . .

UK H . . . . . 3.9% 3.3% 3.9% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.8% 3.1%

B 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 7.1% 8.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 4.4% 1.7%

L . . . . . 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 3.9% 0.5%

Ukraine H . . . . . 19.1% 8.5% 9.4% 7.1% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 9.2% . .

B 7.5% -43.8% -53.6% -20.9% 24.9% 12.5% 5.0% 6.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.7% 4.6% 6.1% . .

L . . . . . 5.9% 1.3% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 3.1% . .

ESRA02 H . . . . . 5.8% 4.8% 5.6% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.6% . .

B 2.2% 6.0% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% . .

L . . . . . 3.2% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% . .

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . . 6.6% 5.5% 6.1% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 5.3% 4.1% 5.0%

B -0.3% 5.0% 2.2% -0.1% 6.5% 4.8% 4.1% 3.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.1%

L . . . . . 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% 2.8% 1.4%

Baltic FAB H . . . . . 7.2% 5.3% 5.8% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4% 4.8% 4.3% 4.2%

B 3.5% -0.4% -1.0% 7.1% 3.2% 5.5% 3.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 3.1% 3.7% 2.4%

L . . . . . 3.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 3.1% 0.7%

Danube FAB H . . . . . 7.6% 6.5% 7.3% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% 6.4% 6.5% 6.1%

B 3.8% 19.2% 12.5% 0.8% 5.3% 5.8% 5.0% 4.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.8% 4.1%

L . . . . . 4.1% 3.6% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 5.2% 2.4%

FAB CE H . . . . . 6.5% 5.5% 6.4% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6% 4.0% 5.2% 5.4% 4.9%

B 1.6% 7.6% 5.9% 3.3% 5.8% 4.8% 4.2% 3.9% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.5% 4.8% 3.2%

L . . . . . 3.0% 3.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.4% 1.9% 4.2% 1.5%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Total service units

(Growth)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-

2024

AAGR

RP2

2015-

2019

AAGR

RP3

2020-

2024

FABEC H . . . . . 4.1% 3.7% 4.9% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 3.4% 4.0% 3.2%

B 1.6% 3.0% 1.9% 4.9% 5.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% 2.2% 3.6% 1.9%

L . . . . . 2.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 3.2% 0.5%

NEFAB H . . . . . 6.2% 3.4% 4.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.8% 4.2% 3.4%

B 5.6% 6.5% 2.6% 4.1% 4.8% 4.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 3.7% 1.7%

L . . . . . 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% -0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 3.1% 0.2%

South West FAB H . . . . . 5.9% 5.0% 5.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 4.6% 5.8% 4.2%

B 0.1% 3.4% 2.0% 8.9% 7.2% 4.7% 3.9% 3.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9% 5.3% 2.4%

L . . . . . 3.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 4.9% 0.7%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . . 3.6% 3.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 3.4% 4.6% 3.4%

B 1.1% 2.5% 3.1% 7.0% 5.8% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 4.1% 1.9%

L . . . . . 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 3.7% 0.7%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . . 4.4% 3.3% 4.2% 3.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1%

B 3.9% 1.8% 2.5% 1.7% 5.1% 3.1% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 2.9% 1.8%

L . . . . . 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 2.5% 0.4%

CRCO88 H . . . . . 4.5% 3.9% 4.9% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.7% 4.6% 3.5%

B 1.3% 3.2% 2.8% 6.1% 5.8% 3.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% 4.2% 2.1%

L . . . . . 2.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 3.8% 0.6%

CRCO11 H . . . . . 5.9% 4.8% 5.6% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 4.6% 5.1% 4.4%

B 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 3.2% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 4.1% 1.1%

CRCO14 H . . . . . 5.9% 4.9% 5.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 5.1% 4.4%

B 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 4.1% 1.1%

CRCO16 H . . . . . 5.9% 4.9% 5.7% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 4.7% 5.1% 4.4%

B 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 4.2% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.6% 2.7%

L . . . . . 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 4.1% 1.1%

RP1Region H . . . . . 5.3% 4.4% 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0%

B 1.6% 4.4% 3.1% 4.5% 5.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 2.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 3.6% 0.9%

RP2Region H . . . . . 5.3% 4.5% 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.0%

B 1.6% 4.4% 3.0% 4.5% 5.6% 4.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8% 4.1% 2.4%

L . . . . . 2.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 3.6% 0.9%

Total H . . . . . 6.0% 4.9% 5.7% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.7% 4.8% 4.4%

B 2.3% 4.0% 2.9% 4.0% 6.3% 4.6% 3.8% 3.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.3% 2.7%

L . . . . . 3.2% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 3.8% 1.2%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 9 Terminal Navigation service units forecast per state (Thousands)

This annex presents the forecast of the terminal navigation service units based on the

terminal charging zones definition for RP2 and the use of a 0.7 exponent in the terminal

service unit definition (to be used as of 2015).

The historical values up to 2017 have been reconstructed based on CRCO data with the

TCZ definitions and the exponent used to compute the TNSU as applicable by

states according to their RP1 performance plans up to 2014 and to the definition of RP2

from 2015 with a 0.7 exponent.

For this forecast, the TCZ definitions available end of 2017 were used (see Annex 2).

Figure 63. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal

Charging Zone.


(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

Austria LO_TCZ H . . . . . 188.4 196.0 204.7 214.0 222.6 229.1 236.6 3.7%

B 175.5 178.4 180.7 181.5 183.4 186.1 191.0 195.4 200.5 205.1 208.5 212.9 2.2%

L . . . . . 183.8 186.9 187.7 187.9 191.3 192.0 193.1 0.7%

Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW H . . . . . 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.9%

B 1.9 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.7%

L . . . . . 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.2%

EB_TCZ_EBBR H . . . . . 162.5 169.8 179.5 188.4 198.6 205.2 210.2 4.2%

B 142.3 146.6 154.6 145.9 157.8 159.6 164.8 169.9 175.7 181.0 186.1 191.0 2.8%

L . . . . . 157.5 160.9 162.2 163.7 165.9 167.8 170.1 1.1%

EB_TCZ_EBCI H . . . . . 32.4 34.1 36.3 38.2 40.3 42.3 44.5 5.3%

B 30.2 28.1 29.1 30.3 31.0 31.9 33.2 34.3 35.5 36.5 37.6 38.8 3.3%

L . . . . . 31.4 32.4 32.8 33.1 33.5 34.1 34.5 1.6%

EB_TCZ_EBLG H . . . . . 33.2 35.1 37.6 39.7 42.0 44.4 47.4 6.4%

B 22.9 24.7 27.6 28.7 30.8 32.8 34.3 35.9 37.5 39.1 40.8 42.8 4.8%

L . . . . . 32.3 33.5 34.4 35.4 36.5 37.6 38.9 3.4%

EB_TCZ_EBOS H . . . . . 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 5.9%

B 3.2 2.4 2.3 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.4%

L . . . . . 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 2.6%

Bulgaria LB_TCZ H . . . . . 35.1 37.2 41.4 43.4 45.8 48.2 50.9 6.4%

B 41.7 44.2 24.1 28.6 33.0 34.5 35.9 37.4 38.7 40.7 41.8 43.1 3.9%

L . . . . . 33.8 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.7 36.1 36.6 1.5%

Croatia LD_TCZ H . . . . . 20.5 21.3 22.7 23.5 24.6 25.5 29.2 5.9%

B 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.3 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.0 2.3%

L . . . . . 19.8 20.1 20.1 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.4 0.6%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

Cyprus LC_TCZ H . . . . . 58.0 63.1 69.8 75.9 88.7 98.1 107.5 10.3%

B 39.0 40.0 40.4 47.3 54.2 56.7 60.4 63.4 66.9 70.9 73.6 84.1 6.5%

L . . . . . 55.6 58.1 59.1 60.0 61.3 62.7 64.8 2.6%

Czech

Republic

LK_TCZ H . . . . . 97.8 105.0 115.8 124.9 132.3 133.7 135.2 5.9%

B 73.7 72.9 75.5 81.5 90.4 96.2 101.1 105.9 111.1 117.0 120.8 124.6 4.7%

L . . . . . 94.4 97.4 98.6 100.3 102.7 103.6 104.5 2.1%

Denmark EK_TCZ H . . . . . 169.8 176.1 184.9 193.0 200.4 207.1 215.3 3.9%

B 148.1 154.5 158.2 168.8 165.0 167.7 172.3 176.6 180.2 184.3 187.9 191.3 2.1%

L . . . . . 165.4 167.9 168.7 169.4 171.1 171.4 172.2 0.6%

Estonia EE_TCZ H . . . . . 20.0 21.4 23.4 26.7 29.2 31.3 33.0 8.8%

B 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.0 18.3 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.3 23.5 25.1 26.6 5.5%

L . . . . . 19.3 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.0 2.0%

Finland EF_TCZ H . . . . . 119.0 122.8 129.6 134.2 137.9 142.3 146.9 4.4%

B 97.9 99.4 100.5 102.6 108.8 117.6 120.1 123.2 125.9 129.2 131.2 133.4 3.0%

L . . . . . 116.3 117.6 117.9 117.8 119.2 119.4 119.8 1.4%

France LF_TCZ_1 H . . . . . 599.8 611.5 655.8 661.0 666.1 672.1 676.8 2.2%

B 604.0 555.7 568.6 575.7 581.1 595.1 603.9 631.2 646.3 660.1 669.4 674.3 2.1%

L . . . . . 587.8 595.7 599.9 602.0 606.9 611.7 618.4 0.9%

LF_TCZ_2 H . . . . . 531.3 547.2 568.3 582.5 598.3 613.8 630.2 2.8%

B 486.6 475.4 480.3 496.7 518.4 523.6 535.3 546.2 553.4 561.6 569.3 578.1 1.6%

L . . . . . 517.0 522.0 525.6 525.7 527.1 527.6 529.4 0.3%

Germany ED_TCZ H . . . . . 1467.7 1517.3 1578.7 1627.7 1684.2 1749.9 1809.0 3.6%

B 1282.3 1311.6 1338.8 1387.9 1414.4 1451.0 1487.5 1520.8 1553.7 1590.2 1617.1 1651.6 2.2%

L . . . . . 1434.8 1456.8 1467.2 1470.4 1498.8 1506.6 1520.7 1.0%

Greece LG_TCZ H . . . . . 121.2 128.5 137.1 144.0 152.1 163.2 172.9 6.3%

B 74.5 86.0 100.1 108.3 113.0 119.4 124.7 129.8 134.1 138.9 143.5 148.5 4.0%

L . . . . . 117.6 121.8 123.1 124.8 127.4 129.9 132.7 2.3%

Hungary LH_TCZ H . . . . . 72.0 75.7 83.4 89.8 99.6 106.2 108.2 7.8%

B 49.2 50.7 55.2 59.0 63.9 70.7 74.0 76.4 80.8 84.4 87.5 91.3 5.2%

L . . . . . 69.2 71.6 72.6 72.3 74.1 75.3 76.4 2.6%

Ireland EI_TCZ H . . . . . 181.0 188.9 192.1 212.1 223.4 237.7 250.7 5.6%

B 136.7 137.5 149.6 163.3 171.7 178.7 184.6 189.7 196.7 203.2 209.2 217.3 3.4%

L . . . . . 176.4 180.3 182.3 184.2 187.0 189.7 192.5 1.7%

Italy LI_TCZ_1 H . . . . . 228.0 237.7 252.0 262.0 276.1 289.3 302.5 4.8%

B 210.0 218.5 221.9 225.8 217.7 225.2 231.5 238.2 243.4 250.0 255.5 261.7 2.7%

L . . . . . 222.4 225.3 226.2 226.6 228.1 228.9 230.5 0.8%

LI_TCZ_2 H . . . . . 328.5 342.2 360.5 375.5 391.8 408.8 424.7 4.4%

B 275.3 275.1 286.0 300.4 313.5 324.3 332.4 342.0 347.3 354.3 361.4 369.5 2.4%

L . . . . . 320.1 324.3 324.2 324.5 325.9 326.4 327.7 0.6%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

Latvia EV_TCZ H . . . . . 41.2 43.1 46.2 48.3 50.6 53.0 55.0 6.2%

B 32.4 31.4 32.4 32.4 36.0 40.2 40.9 41.2 41.3 41.6 41.8 41.9 2.2%

L . . . . . 39.2 39.3 38.3 37.4 36.5 35.7 35.1 -0.4%

Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ H . . . . . 278.2 293.1 310.6 323.1 337.3 350.8 365.1 5.1%

B 180.3 191.8 205.6 230.7 257.6 274.2 284.0 292.1 298.3 304.5 310.1 316.2 3.0%

L . . . . . 270.2 276.1 276.6 277.0 277.8 278.0 278.9 1.1%

Lithuania EY_TCZ H . . . . . 31.0 33.2 37.1 39.2 41.2 43.5 46.0 6.8%

B 21.0 23.6 25.1 26.8 29.1 30.3 31.9 33.2 34.5 35.8 37.4 38.4 4.0%

L . . . . . 29.8 30.5 30.8 31.3 31.7 32.0 32.3 1.5%

Luxembourg EL_TCZ H . . . . . 60.7 63.4 67.2 69.8 72.0 74.8 78.6 6.3%

B 37.3 39.0 41.1 45.8 51.2 59.8 61.8 63.9 65.9 67.8 69.5 71.1 4.8%

L . . . . . 58.9 60.0 61.1 62.1 62.9 63.8 64.9 3.4%

Malta LM_TCZ H . . . . . 36.6 39.7 43.8 46.8 50.5 53.8 57.9 9.2%

B 22.7 23.9 25.4 26.9 31.2 35.9 38.1 40.6 42.0 43.8 45.5 47.5 6.2%

L . . . . . 35.5 36.8 37.5 37.8 38.9 39.3 40.0 3.6%

Netherlands EH_TCZ H . . . . . 414.2 426.8 441.5 448.1 455.6 464.2 473.7 2.2%

B 345.0 356.6 369.2 390.2 406.1 414.1 424.7 435.1 440.6 445.8 451.0 456.4 1.7%

L . . . . . 410.1 414.4 414.7 412.7 410.6 407.8 406.6 0.0%

Norway EN_TCZ H . . . . . 262.2 268.6 279.7 286.5 293.6 297.4 300.3 2.9%

B 255.4 247.9 241.7 242.1 246.2 259.9 263.6 268.9 272.1 275.4 278.5 281.4 1.9%

L . . . . . 257.7 259.6 260.6 260.1 260.2 259.7 260.1 0.8%

Poland EP_TCZ_EPWA H . . . . . 105.3 115.0 126.0 126.8 128.3 130.0 131.8 5.5%

B 70.0 69.0 70.8 78.7 90.7 103.0 109.9 115.7 121.3 126.8 129.2 130.7 5.4%

L . . . . . 100.7 105.2 106.6 107.8 110.0 111.5 112.2 3.1%

EP_TCZ_OTHR H . . . . . 126.3 135.0 143.7 151.9 160.8 171.3 180.7 6.9%

B 79.9 87.5 96.4 103.9 113.4 124.3 131.6 137.3 142.5 147.1 152.4 157.2 4.8%

L . . . . . 122.3 127.5 130.0 132.8 135.2 136.9 138.9 2.9%

Romania LR_TCZ H . . . . . 72.8 77.0 82.6 86.6 90.9 96.7 101.5 6.0%

B 47.3 50.3 54.6 61.6 67.5 70.8 74.5 77.2 79.5 81.9 84.0 86.2 3.6%

L . . . . . 69.8 72.4 72.4 72.9 73.7 74.2 74.7 1.5%

Slovakia LZ_TCZ H . . . . . 12.0 13.5 14.8 16.0 17.2 18.5 20.1 8.8%

B 8.6 8.3 9.4 10.3 11.1 11.8 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 5.7%

L . . . . . 11.5 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 3.2%

Slovenia LJ_TCZ H . . . . . 14.8 15.9 16.4 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.5 5.9%

B 11.3 11.1 12.0 11.6 13.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 16.5 17.2 18.5 19.2 5.7%

L . . . . . 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 2.8%

Spain LE_TCZ H . . . . . 835.4 877.3 932.6 973.8 1017.4 1059.6 1104.1 5.1%

B 700.4 651.2 680.5 741.1 781.5 823.7 854.0 882.4 905.2 933.0 952.9 975.5 3.2%

L . . . . . 812.5 832.4 841.1 849.2 858.7 864.5 873.0 1.6%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



(Thousands) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

Sweden ES_TCZ_A H . . . . . 155.0 157.6 159.8 162.3 165.5 169.2 171.3 1.5%

B 128.6 135.6 137.1 143.9 154.1 155.2 157.4 159.9 162.2 165.3 168.5 171.3 1.5%

L . . . . . 155.0 157.1 159.7 160.1 161.9 162.3 163.3 0.8%

Switzerland LS_TCZ H . . . . . 290.0 300.7 316.9 329.1 343.1 357.0 363.7 3.6%

B 252.1 262.2 266.6 279.8 283.8 287.0 293.6 302.2 308.6 316.0 322.1 329.9 2.2%

L . . . . . 284.0 286.7 289.3 290.1 292.8 294.8 298.2 0.7%

UK EG_TCZ_B H . . . . . 1322.6 1355.2 1424.9 1473.0 1521.5 1562.8 1597.6 3.1%

B 1106.0 1142.7 1187.0 1256.1 1292.6 1311.4 1336.6 1361.5 1381.5 1398.6 1417.3 1436.0 1.5%

L . . . . . 1301.6 1317.2 1323.9 1331.8 1339.2 1347.4 1356.8 0.7%

EG_TCZ_C H . . . . . 994.7 1017.2 1073.1 1110.6 1145.9 1173.9 1190.4 3.0%

B 843.8 877.1 907.6 946.8 964.9 987.3 1006.2 1024.3 1039.6 1051.6 1065.2 1077.7 1.6%

L . . . . . 981.4 993.8 999.8 1007.5 1014.9 1022.3 1030.2 0.9%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 10 Terminal Navigation Service Units forecast per state (Growth)

This annex presents the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than

counts of terminal navigation service units.

Figure 64. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal Charging

Zone.


(Growth) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

Austria LO_TCZ H . . . . . 2.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.7%

B -2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2%

L . . . . . 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7%

Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW H . . . . . 14.2% 4.9% 4.3% 2.3% 3.6% 2.9% 2.8% 4.9%

B -1.5% -10.6% 56.1% 6.2% -13.8% 12.8% 2.6% 2.9% 1.2% 1.7% 2.9% 2.5% 3.7%

L . . . . . 11.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 2.2%

EB_TCZ_EBBR H . . . . . 3.0% 4.5% 5.7% 5.0% 5.4% 3.3% 2.5% 4.2%

B -5.6% 3.0% 5.5% -5.6% 8.1% 1.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8%

L . . . . . -0.2% 2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1%

EB_TCZ_EBCI H . . . . . 4.5% 5.3% 6.5% 5.1% 5.6% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3%

B 8.3% -7.0% 3.8% 3.9% 2.3% 2.9% 4.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.3% 3.3%

L . . . . . 1.5% 2.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6%

EB_TCZ_EBLG H . . . . . 8.0% 5.6% 7.1% 5.5% 5.8% 5.6% 6.8% 6.4%

B -2.6% 8.1% 11.4% 4.2% 7.2% 6.5% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.9% 4.8%

L . . . . . 5.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.4%

EB_TCZ_EBOS H . . . . . 15.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 5.7% 2.3% 5.3% 5.9%

B -7.5% -26.1% -3.3% 46.5% -11.2% 10.6% 6.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 4.0% 3.0% 4.4%

L . . . . . 8.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 2.6%

Bulgaria LB_TCZ H . . . . . 6.4% 6.0% 11.4% 4.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.6% 6.4%

B 0.5% 6.1% -45.6% 18.8% 15.3% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 3.5% 5.3% 2.8% 3.0% 3.9%

L . . . . . 2.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5%

Croatia LD_TCZ H . . . . . 4.6% 4.0% 6.8% 3.5% 4.3% 3.9% 14.5% 5.9%

B -1.0% 3.5% 6.2% 5.2% 7.2% 3.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3%

L . . . . . 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% -0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6%

Cyprus LC_TCZ H . . . . . 6.9% 8.9% 10.5% 8.8% 16.7% 10.6% 9.7% 10.3%

B -8.3% 2.5% 1.0% 17.0% 14.7% 4.6% 6.5% 5.0% 5.4% 6.0% 3.9% 14.3% 6.5%

L . . . . . 2.6% 4.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3% 3.3% 2.6%

Czech Republic LK_TCZ H . . . . . 8.2% 7.4% 10.4% 7.8% 5.9% 1.1% 1.1% 5.9%

B -2.1% -1.0% 3.6% 7.9% 11.0% 6.4% 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% 5.3% 3.3% 3.2% 4.7%

L . . . . . 4.4% 3.1% 1.3% 1.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.8% 2.1%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



(Growth) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

Denmark EK_TCZ H . . . . . 2.9% 3.7% 5.0% 4.4% 3.8% 3.3% 4.0% 3.9%

B 3.1% 4.3% 2.4% 6.7% -2.3% 1.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1%

L . . . . . 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%

Estonia EE_TCZ H . . . . . 9.4% 6.9% 9.1% 14.0% 9.5% 7.2% 5.5% 8.8%

B -22.8% 3.4% 5.6% 0.5% 14.4% 7.2% 4.3% 4.8% 3.8% 5.4% 6.8% 6.2% 5.5%

L . . . . . 5.2% 2.3% 1.0% 1.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0%

Finland EF_TCZ H . . . . . 9.4% 3.2% 5.5% 3.5% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 4.4%

B 0.4% 1.5% 1.1% 2.1% 6.0% 8.1% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.6% 1.5% 1.7% 3.0%

L . . . . . 6.9% 1.1% 0.3% -0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 1.4%

France LF_TCZ_1 H . . . . . 3.2% 2.0% 7.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 2.2%

B -0.5% -8.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 2.4% 1.5% 4.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 2.1%

L . . . . . 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9%

LF_TCZ_2 H . . . . . 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8%

B 0.2% -2.3% 1.0% 3.4% 4.4% 1.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%

L . . . . . -0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%

Germany ED_TCZ H . . . . . 3.8% 3.4% 4.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.6%

B -1.0% 2.3% 2.1% 3.7% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2%

L . . . . . 1.4% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0%

Greece LG_TCZ H . . . . . 7.2% 6.0% 6.7% 5.0% 5.6% 7.4% 5.9% 6.3%

B -10.2% 15.5% 16.4% 8.2% 4.3% 5.7% 4.4% 4.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 4.0%

L . . . . . 4.0% 3.6% 1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3%

Hungary LH_TCZ H . . . . . 12.7% 5.0% 10.2% 7.8% 10.9% 6.6% 1.9% 7.8%

B -0.9% 3.1% 9.0% 6.9% 8.2% 10.7% 4.7% 3.2% 5.7% 4.4% 3.7% 4.4% 5.2%

L . . . . . 8.3% 3.4% 1.5% -0.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.5% 2.6%

Ireland EI_TCZ H . . . . . 5.5% 4.3% 1.7% 10.4% 5.3% 6.4% 5.5% 5.6%

B 5.5% 0.6% 8.8% 9.2% 5.1% 4.1% 3.3% 2.8% 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 3.9% 3.4%

L . . . . . 2.8% 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%

Italy LI_TCZ_1 H . . . . . 4.7% 4.2% 6.0% 3.9% 5.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.8%

B -3.5% 4.0% 1.6% 1.8% -3.6% 3.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.2% 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7%

L . . . . . 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8%

Italy LI_TCZ_2 H . . . . . 4.8% 4.2% 5.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 4.4%

B -3.7% -0.1% 4.0% 5.0% 4.4% 3.4% 2.5% 2.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4%

L . . . . . 2.1% 1.3% -0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%

Latvia EV_TCZ H . . . . . 14.4% 4.6% 7.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 3.8% 6.2%

B 2.9% -3.2% 3.3% -0.1% 11.3% 11.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 2.2%

L . . . . . 8.7% 0.3% -2.5% -2.3% -2.5% -2.1% -1.8% -0.4%

Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ H . . . . . 8.0% 5.3% 6.0% 4.0% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 5.1%

B 2.6% 6.4% 7.2% 12.2% 11.6% 6.4% 3.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 2.0% 3.0%

L . . . . . 4.9% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.1%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



(Growth) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

Lithuania EY_TCZ H . . . . . 6.6% 7.2% 11.6% 5.7% 5.2% 5.6% 5.8% 6.8%

B 9.5% 12.2% 6.2% 7.1% 8.3% 4.4% 5.0% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% 4.4% 2.7% 4.0%

L . . . . . 2.4% 2.4% 0.9% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5%

Luxembourg EL_TCZ H . . . . . 18.5% 4.4% 6.1% 3.8% 3.2% 3.9% 5.0% 6.3%

B 6.8% 4.4% 5.5% 11.4% 11.8% 16.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 4.8%

L . . . . . 15.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 3.4%

Malta LM_TCZ H . . . . . 17.4% 8.4% 10.4% 6.7% 7.9% 6.7% 7.6% 9.2%

B 9.7% 5.6% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8% 15.1% 6.2% 6.4% 3.4% 4.4% 3.8% 4.4% 6.2%

L . . . . . 13.8% 3.6% 1.9% 0.7% 2.9% 1.1% 1.7% 3.6%

Netherlands EH_TCZ H . . . . . 2.0% 3.0% 3.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2%

B 1.7% 3.4% 3.5% 5.7% 4.1% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7%

L . . . . . 1.0% 1.1% 0.1% -0.5% -0.5% -0.7% -0.3% 0.0%

Norway EN_TCZ H . . . . . 6.5% 2.4% 4.1% 2.4% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 2.9%

B 5.4% -2.9% -2.5% 0.1% 1.7% 5.6% 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.9%

L . . . . . 4.7% 0.7% 0.4% -0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.2% 0.8%

Poland EP_TCZ_EPWA H . . . . . 16.1% 9.2% 9.5% 0.7% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 5.5%

B 7.2% -1.5% 2.6% 11.3% 15.2% 13.6% 6.7% 5.3% 4.9% 4.5% 1.9% 1.2% 5.4%

L . . . . . 11.1% 4.4% 1.4% 1.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 3.1%

EP_TCZ_OTHR H . . . . . 11.4% 6.8% 6.4% 5.8% 5.9% 6.5% 5.5% 6.9%

B -4.4% 9.5% 10.2% 7.8% 9.2% 9.6% 5.9% 4.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.6% 3.1% 4.8%

L . . . . . 7.8% 4.3% 1.9% 2.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.4% 2.9%

Romania LR_TCZ H . . . . . 7.9% 5.7% 7.3% 4.9% 4.9% 6.4% 5.0% 6.0%

B 4.8% 6.4% 8.6% 12.9% 9.5% 4.9% 5.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 2.6% 2.7% 3.6%

L . . . . . 3.4% 3.8% -0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5%

Slovakia LZ_TCZ H . . . . . 8.2% 11.9% 10.1% 7.8% 7.5% 7.9% 8.6% 8.8%

B -1.7% -3.4% 12.9% 9.6% 8.5% 5.8% 9.6% 5.3% 5.6% 4.8% 4.4% 4.7% 5.7%

L . . . . . 3.7% 5.4% 1.7% 4.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 3.2%

Slovenia LJ_TCZ H . . . . . 13.2% 7.5% 3.6% 6.7% 3.4% 4.2% 3.1% 5.9%

B 1.4% -1.7% 8.0% -3.3% 12.4% 10.7% 5.7% 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 7.2% 4.1% 5.7%

L . . . . . 9.8% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 2.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.8%

Spain LE_TCZ H . . . . . 6.9% 5.0% 6.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 5.1%

B -3.5% -7.0% 4.5% 8.9% 5.4% 5.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.1% 2.4% 3.2%

L . . . . . 4.0% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.6%

Sweden ES_TCZ_A H . . . . . 0.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 2.2% 1.3% 1.5%

B 5.7% 5.5% 1.1% 4.9% 7.1% 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5%

L . . . . . 0.6% 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8%

Switzerland LS_TCZ H . . . . . 2.2% 3.7% 5.4% 3.8% 4.3% 4.1% 1.9% 3.6%

B -0.9% 4.0% 1.7% 4.9% 1.4% 1.1% 2.3% 2.9% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.2%

L . . . . . 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 0.7%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018



(Growth) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AAGR

2018-2024

UK

EG_TCZ_B H . . . . . 2.3% 2.5% 5.1% 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 3.1%

B 2.5% 3.3% 3.9% 5.8% 2.9% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5%

L . . . . . 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7%

EG_TCZ_C H . . . . . 3.1% 2.3% 5.5% 3.5% 3.2% 2.4% 1.4% 3.0%

B 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 4.3% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6%

L . . . . . 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9%

Network Manager



FEBRUARY 2018


Annex 11 References

i EUROCONTROL Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2017-2023, STATFOR

Document 614, October 2017

ii Methods of the STATFOR 7-year Forecast, STATFOR Document 518, Draft v0.8, July 2016

iii GDP Elasticities for the STATFOR Forecast, STATFOR Document 499, Draft v0.4, November 2013

iv High-Speed Train Model Recalibration, STATFOR Document 551, Draft v0.1, November 2014

v EUROCONTROL Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2017-2023, STATFOR

Document 603, February 2017

vi Methods of the STATFOR 7-year Forecast, STATFOR Document 518, Draft v0.8, July 2016

vii Task5: Mitigation of the Challenges, Challenges of Growth 2013, EUROCONTROL June 2013.

EUROCONTROL

For further information, please contact: STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast [email protected]://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

© 2018 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may

be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the

source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The infor-

mation in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from

EUROCONTROL.

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