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EUROCONTROL

EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast

September 2012Flight Movements

2012 - 2018

EUROCONTROL 7-year Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018

Edition Number: v1.1 Released Issue Page i

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the mid-2012 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight forecast. This update uses the most-recent available traffic statistics and economic forecasts, and more up-to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent air-industry-related events.

Over the Summer months, European traffic has been quite close to the last forecast published (Ref. 1). Nevertheless, very high oil prices, a weaker economic outlook and other recent events (airlines failures, slower-than-expected recovery from the Arab Spring) have all led to a downwards revision of the forecast over all.

The forecast update is for 1.5% fewer flights in 2012 and a stagnation in 2013, due to the factors mentioned above, marking a double-dip after the first plunge in 2008/09. By 2018, the forecast anticipates 11.1 million IFR movements in Europe1, just 14% more than in 2011. From 2014, the growth returns but slower compared to pre-2008 average growth rates. Growth averages 1.9% per year for the whole 2012-18 period.

Figure 1. Summary of forecast for Europe (ESRA08).

ESRA08 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . 9,672 9,810 10,215 10,613 11,043 11,513 11,938 2.9%

B 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,638 9,639 9,901 10,193 10,518 10,837 11,145 1.9%

IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)

L . . . . 9,607 9,485 9,625 9,815 10,033 10,224 10,425 0.9%

H . . . . -1.2% 1.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.7% 2.9%

B 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -1.5% 0.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9%

Annual Growth (compared to previous year)

L . . . . -1.8% -1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 0.9%

Compared to the February 2012 release of the seven-year flight forecast this is a downward revision. This is mostly due to the weaker economic forecast, especially for 2013 when the flight growth is now expected to be flat (down to 0% from +1.5% in the February forecast). The forecast for 2012 is little changed. Revisions at a State level are often more significant corresponding to the uneven developments across Europe.

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (eg. this forecast is prepared in the context of an economic downturn which could further deteriorate) and upside risks (eg. current high load factors could result in quicker-than-expected traffic recovery when it finally arrives). These are discussed later in Section 4.3. By 2018, the high-growth scenario has 0.8 million more and low-growth scenario 0.7 million fewer flights than the base scenario (+7% and -6% respectively).

The EUROCONTROL two-year flight forecast will next be updated in December 2012; the seven-year flight forecast for 2013-2019 will be published in February 2013. This document is an amended version, see page vi for more details.

1 In this report ‘Europe’ is represented by the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA08) in the extended 2008 definition used for the first time in the MTF10 (see Annex A.1).


Figure 2. Average annual growth 2011-2018 per State.

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EUROPEAN ORGANISATION FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION

EUROCONTROL

EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME


Edition Number : v1.1 Edition Date : 26/10/12 Status : Released Issue Intended for : General Public


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DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS

TITLE


Reference Number: 11/10/13-27

Document Identifier Edition Number: V1.1

STATFOR Doc475 Edition Date: 25/10/2012

Abstract This report presents the mid-2012 update of the EUROCONTROL forecast of instrument flight rules (IFR) flights in Europe in 2012-2018. It has been prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in August-September 2012 and it replaces the seven-year flight forecast of February 2012 and the two-year flight forecast of May 2012.

This document contains a description and discussion of the main results as well as a comparison with previously published results.

Keywords STATFOR Air Traffic Forecast Medium-Term Movements Flight Movements Trends Traffic Flow

Contact Person(s) Tel Unit Claire Leleu X3346 DNM/FTA STATFOR

STATUS, AUDIENCE AND ACCESSIBILITY

Status Intended for Accessible via Working Draft General Public Intranet Draft EATMP Stakeholders Extranet Proposed Issue Restricted Audience Internet (www.eurocontrol.int) Released Issue Printed & electronic copies of the document can be obtained from

the Publications (see page iii)

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Publications EUROCONTROL Headquarters 96 Rue de la Fusée B-1130 BRUSSELS Tel: +32 (0)2 729 4715 Fax: +32 (0)2 729 5149 E-mail: [email protected] Open on 08:00 - 15:00 UTC from Monday to Thursday, incl.

DOCUMENT APPROVAL

The following table identifies all management authorities who have successively approved the present issue of this document.

© 2012 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. The use of the document is at the user’s sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied.

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.

Edition Number: v1.1 Released Issue Page v

mailto:[email protected]


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DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present document. EDITION NUMBER

EDITION DATE

INFOCENTRE REFERENCE

REASON FOR CHANGE PAGES

AFFECTED

v0.1 04/09/12 Draft for internal review All

v1.0 26/09/12 Released version All

v1.1 25/10/12 Amended version i,ii,9-12, 17,29-41

This document replaces the previous v1.0 version. It resolves the problem of historical data inconsistencies which could be found in the major tables and graphs of the report. This has resulted in a few changes to forecast growth rates which are mostly negligible or localised.


Edition Number: v1.1 Released Issue Page vii

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................1

2. TRAFFIC TRENDS IN 2012..................................................................................2

3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................7

4. GROWTH IN IFR MOVEMENTS TO 2018............................................................9

4.1 Short-term outlook (2012 & 2013).............................................................................................9 4.2 Medium-term outlook (up to 2018)..........................................................................................11 4.3 Risks to forecast growth..........................................................................................................14 4.4 Comparison with previous forecast.........................................................................................15

5. GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................18

Annex A. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS ..........................................................19

A.1 ESRA08...................................................................................................................................19 A.2 Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................20 A.3 Functional Airspace Blocks.....................................................................................................22

Annex B. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS .......................................24

B.1 Economic growth.....................................................................................................................24 B.2 North Africa .............................................................................................................................27 B.3 Airport Switch ..........................................................................................................................28 B.4 Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................28 B.5 Airline schedules .....................................................................................................................28

Annex C. SUMMARY OF FORECAST FOR EUROPE..........................................29

Annex D. FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................32

Annex E. REFERENCES .......................................................................................42


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List of Figures. Figure 1. Summary of forecast for Europe (ESRA08). .............................................................. i Figure 2. Average annual growth 2011-2018 per State. .......................................................... ii Figure 3. Traffic losses have reduced over the summer for the main contributors to European

traffic. ................................................................................................................................3 Figure 4. Actual traffic within the range of the May forecast. ...................................................5 Figure 5. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower and Poland and Ukraine traffic

was boosted by EURO2012..............................................................................................5 Figure 6. Russia is the first non-European destination adding flights ......................................5 Figure 7. Low-cost is back to growth since this summer and Charter is recovering from the

Arab Spring. ......................................................................................................................5 Figure 8. Summary of forecast for Europe. ..............................................................................9 Figure 9. Forecast detail for 2012. .........................................................................................10 Figure 10. Forecast detail for 2013. .......................................................................................11 Figure 11. Additional movements per day per State, 2018 v 2011. .......................................12 Figure 12. Flows adding most movements, 2018 v 2011.......................................................13 Figure 13. Average annual growth rates for FABs, 2018 v 2011. ..........................................14 Figure 14. For total Europe, current forecast is aligned with low-scenario of the MTF12 from

February, in the short-term..............................................................................................16 Figure 15. Forecast revision for 2018 per State. ....................................................................17 Figure 16. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ...............................................19 Figure 17. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. ..........................................20 Figure 18. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. .............21 Figure 19. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics before 31 August 2012............22 Figure 20. FAB initiatives as of August 2012. ........................................................................23 Figure 21. GDP forecast revised down for 2012. ...................................................................24 Figure 22. GDP of almost all States revised down in 2013 ....................................................25 Figure 23. GDP growth by Traffic Zone..................................................................................25 Figure 24. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone...............................................................26 Figure 25. GDP growth by Traffic Region ..............................................................................27 Figure 26. Growth in Europe ..................................................................................................29 Figure 27. Traffic on main flow categories in Europe .............................................................30 Figure 28. Traffic and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe............................31 Figure 29. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2007-2018 ......................................32 Figure 30. Forecast Summary: Annual growth rates 2007-2018............................................37


Edition Number: v1.1 Released Issue Page 1

1. INTRODUCTION

This report presents an update of the seven-year flight forecast published by EUROCONTROL in February this year (Ref.). After requests by stakeholders, and in particular to allow the capacity-planning process to use the most up-to-date information, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) now refreshes the main inputs to the forecast mid-year in addition to its full revision of the seven-year forecast published each February.

The forecast describes annual numbers of Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) flight movements up to 2018. The forecast presented here replaces both the 7-year forecast issued in February 2012 and the 2-year update issued in May 2012.

For this update, three changes have been made: the assumptions on economic growth have been updated using economic forecasts available in mid-August; the traffic baseline has been re-aligned to take into account actual traffic to the end of August; adjustments and assumptions for taking into account the impact of recent airlines failures on European traffic. For all other input assumptions, see the description in Annex C of Ref. 5.

The forecast method is similar to the one used in the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight forecast published in February 2012. More details on the method are given in Annex A of Ref. 5.

This report contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, including geographical definitions (Annex A), updated forecast assumptions (Annex B), forecast details for Europe as a whole (Annex C), and annual total forecasts per State (Annex D). The detail for each traffic zone (usually the same as ‘State’) is provided via STATFOR web portal (Ref. 2).

The two-year view of the forecast for 2012-2013 will next be updated in December 2012, the next seven-year outlook for 2013-2019 will be published in February 2013.

The companion forecast of service units has been updated at the same time and is available separately (Ref. 3).


2. TRAFFIC TRENDS IN 2012

Traffic growth in 2012 has been marked by economic weakness in the Eurozone and increasingly elsewhere. If traffic to North Africa is slowly recovering, flights within Europe, and mainly domestic traffic, have continued to decrease compared to 2011, remaining closer to 2010 volumes. However, the beginning of the summer schedule has brought signs of improvements that still need to be consolidated by the winter schedule.

Since February 2012, the economic situation surrounding the Euro zone has remained fragile with more countries, such as Spain, joining Greece in the debt crisis with its public and private budgetary austerity and increased unemployment that keep these countries in recession and consequently further cut down on economic growth of Europe as a whole – as well as directly affecting purchasing power for flights. This European situation is also influenced by weaker economic trends worldwide that have resulted in GDP forecasts being revised downwards for both 2012 and 2013 in many countries outside Europe, including the USA and China. Furthermore, fuel prices have remained high putting additional pressure on airlines which have had to cease operations for a few of them or, for the others, have been forced to restructure and cut traffic on some routes in an attempt to optimise the profitability of their operations.

As a result, traffic volumes have been consistently lower than 2011, particularly at the end of the Winter2011/2012, which induced a downward revision to the forecast update in May. Indeed, traffic volumes overall have followed the 2010 levels quite closely (see Figure 4).

As expected, since the Summer schedule was put in place, the situation has slightly improved and the traffic decrease has stabilized around 1.3% in July and August, leaving an average decline of 2% since the beginning of the year. This closely matches the May revision as shown in Figure 4.

The traffic losses are especially visible on European local traffic that has decreased by more than 3% since the beginning of the year at ESRA level. At State level, traffic losses are mainly visible on domestic traffic of most countries and is also observed for the main contributors to European traffic (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) that have all lost more traffic in percentage on their domestic flows than on others (apart from France whose overflights declined a bit more if we look at the year-to-date figures).

For the main contributors to the European traffic, as shown in Figure 3:

France is back to a slight growth since June, by 0.5% in August thanks to its overflights and arrivals and departures that are becoming stronger this Summer.

Italian traffic is also back to growth since August thanks to the recovery of its overflights that declined significantly last year following the Arab Spring and the imposition of the Libyan exclusion area.

Germany and UK on the other hand are still slightly losing traffic, by less than 1%, despite growing arrivals and departures because of a weak internal traffic and losses in overflights.

Spanish traffic is remaining weak, still losing 3% of its total in August because of losses greater than 12% in internal traffic and weak departures and arrivals still losing around 1.5%. These losses in internal traffic have slowed down from the nadir of 20% when Spanair ceased operations in February as the lost flights seem to have been taken over by other airlines, such as Vueling and Ryanair.

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However, other airlines, including Iberia, have also cut traffic on many routes, this also impacting the traffic in the Canary Islands that have lost more than 15% internal flights since May 2012.

Restructuring of airlines operations and airline failures have in general contributed to traffic losses in several countries: for example, weak internals in Finland and Denmark, weak arrivals and departures in Hungary that are now operating around 20% less such traffic compared to last year because of the failure of Malev. These traffic losses are in general visible in Figure 5 that shows the main contributors to the European traffic during the last four months. Other recent airline failures have been considered in the forecast (see Annex B.4)

As shown in Figure 5, Turkey was the main contributor of additional flights to the network followed by Poland whose departures where nonetheless boosted by out-of–the-ordinary additional flights linked to the EURO2012 in June. The same happened for Ukraine. On the other side of Figure 5, Spain remains the country that has lost the most departures in the Summer. However, apart from a few States, the traffic losses are in general smaller than for the February to April 2012 period analysed in the May report (Ref. 1), this demonstrating the slight improvement of the situation over the summer. Exceptions relate to Sweden, Finland and Denmark whose domestic flights and international departures have significantly decreased since the beginning of the year. Amongst the Nordic countries that all grew strongly in 2010, only Norwegian traffic remains growing and also one of the main contributors adding traffic in Europe. The Czech internal traffic and international departures significantly dropped too and not only because of the failure of Czech Connect Airlines whose flights represented far less than 1% of all Czech departures.

Figure 3. Traffic losses have reduced over the summer for the main contributors to European traffic.

Since the beginning of the year, Russia has remained the number one destination from Europe and, despite a weakening of its growth in the beginning the year (Figure 6), it is now adding around 50 flights/day more compared to a year ago, a figure similar to that observed in the summer 2011. The main Russian arrival/departure



flows having contributed to strong growth in Baltic and Eastern European States over 2012 summer months are linked to Spain, Italy, Greece, Tunisia and Egypt.

Flights to Egypt and Tunisia continue to grow and recover from the drop of last year, even if the recovery of traffic to Egypt is slowing down, staying this summer around 12% to 15% lower than in 2010 before the beginning of the political unrest. Since the beginning of the year, the flows to Morocco, Israel and the United States have been stuck in decline. However this trend has stabilised and growth was even back in August for the traffic to the USA.




Figure 4. Actual traffic within the range of the May forecast.

Figure 5. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower and Poland and Ukraine traffic was boosted by EURO2012.

Figure 6. Russia is the first non-European destination adding flights

Figure 7. Low-cost is back to growth since this summer and Charter is recovering from the Arab Spring.



Figure 7 shows that all market segments started the year in decline. Since then, the charter segment has grown by 3.9% compared to last year as a consequence of the recovery to traffic to North Africa. Traditional, Business Aviation and all-cargo flights have remained around 3% below 2011 levels. However, since the Summer schedule was put in place, the low-cost segment is back to growth with figures up to around 5% in July and August for a year-to-date growth of 1.9%.


3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

The forecast is driven by past traffic trends and by scenario assumptions for the future. So, recent cuts in forecast economic growth (notably in 2013) lead to cuts in forecast flight growth. However, the development of the traffic growth itself for 2012 and later is more complex to grasp as it involves the mix of positive (somewhat “improvement” over the Summer) and negative prospects (gloomy Winter in terms of traffic capacities).

The forecast is derived from historical traffic data and a set of scenario assumptions (see Annex B). The downward revision in the forecast can be understood from these data. In particular, since the 7-year forecast was last published in February the inputs have changed in two important respects: GDP and flight growth.

Firstly GDP forecasts: We continue to see cuts in forecasts of economic growth, for 2012 and especially for 2013. According to Oxford Economics, European real GDP will decline by 0.3% in 2012 (a small downward revision on the flat GDP forecast dated January as shown in Figure 11). More importantly, the updated economic forecast shows a strong downward revision for 2013: the real GDP growth is now cut to 0.6%; 1% down on the January release. This 1% revision alone would be expected to cut the flight growth forecast of around 1.5%. This weaker-than-anticipated growth over the next two years has also been observed at a global level after Q2 forecast revisions. Both advanced and emerging economies have seen cut backs in their GDP forecasts in 2012 and 2013.

In the later years, the revision of the European economic growth is less marked. However, the weak economic situation continues in the later years (more detail on this in Annex C.1.).

Figure 11. EU GDP forecasts have seen strong downward revisions for 2013.



As far as the recent traffic growth is concerned, there was a reduction in traffic losses from the beginning of the June, notably for busiest States, as shown in Figure 3. Contributors to this were: the partial bounce-back of Arab Spring losses in 2011, the additional growth in between June and August owing to the 2012 sports events, the more traffic than previously expected in some States (eg. France, Spain, Switzerland) and; the continuing traffic growth from Russia (overflights growth gain for Europe).

Dealing with the intrinsic development of capacity growth in the last quarter of 2012, the current forecast has been supported by the airlines schedules. In the first half, most of European airlines have been confronted with worsening financial results. They are still struggling with high fuel costs (after a brief lull) and have also to continue their cost-cutting plans and revenue management programmes. As far as capacity adjustments are concerned, we do not expect to see further cuts than the one observed during Winter last year, especially in the current context of very high load factors. Over the next two months, France, Germany and UK are expected to see capacities just below last year’s one (compared to the same months last year). Spain and Canary Islands are expected to see larger contractions, largely explained by the Spanair failure. On the capacity increases, very few countries are likely to show a double-digit raise like Turkey on last years’ figures.




4. GROWTH IN IFR MOVEMENTS TO 2018

The current forecast is for 11.1 million IFR movements in Europe in 2018, 14% more than in 2011. The first two years of the forecast—stagnation--reflect the very slow economic recovery in Europe and the financial difficulties of the air traffic industry. There is a lot of geographical variation in the forecast, traditional more mature markets in the West will typically see slower growth over the next 7 years.

Figure 8. Summary of forecast for Europe.

ESRA08 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . 9,672 9,810 10,215 10,613 11,043 11,513 11,938 2.9%

B 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,638 9,639 9,901 10,193 10,518 10,837 11,145 1.9%

IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)

L . . . . 9,607 9,485 9,625 9,815 10,033 10,224 10,425 0.9%

H . . . . -1.2% 1.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.7% 2.9%

B 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -1.5% 0.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9%

Annual Growth (compared to previuos year)

L . . . . -1.8% -1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 0.9%

4.1 Short-term outlook (2012 & 2013)

In the short-term, the 2012 forecast has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points to -1.5% (±0.4%) (see Figure 9) compared to the February forecast, partly because of the 0.3% cut in economic growth2. Nevertheless, the effect of the downward GDP revision is moderated by the recent slight improvement in traffic: reduced traffic losses during the Summer months, notably due to sports events and partial traffic recovery from Arab Spring. Also, this Winter, most European States will probably see a little more traffic than the levels experienced last Winter.

In regional terms, there is still declining traffic in the ESRA Mediterranean region (Spain, Canary Islands, Italy, Portugal and Greece arrivals/departures and internals all declining). The climate for leisure travel in these States remains soft. In Spain, the recent increase of the Spanish airport charges, for example, had an impact on traffic development in the State (see risks in Section 4.3). The only exception in the region is Turkey (+3.3% in 2012) which still brings flights to the European network—though at reduced growth rates compared to what they used to be before 2009--, notably thanks to the strong domestic traffic growth but also owing to the traffic from/to Middle-East, Asia/Pacific and Russia.

In the ESRA North West region, the situation is rather unbalanced. Some States have seen their forecast revised upwards compared to the February forecast: especially France (-0.3% in 2012), UK (-1.3% in 2012) and Switzerland (-0.2% in 2012), owing to less of a decline than forecast in February. Others like Germany and Austria remained unchanged as both GDP growth and traffic developments remained stable since the last forecast. Forecast for Denmark has been revised downwards following the failure of Cimber Sterling in May.

2 This is a 0.2% increase on the May forecast.


Most of the forecasts for ESRA Eastern States have been slightly revised downwards as part of the slower than expected traffic recovery from North Africa 2011 disruptions or of reduced levels of arrival/departure traffic after airline failures (Czech Republic and Hungary). Adriatic States are expected to see almost no additional traffic in 2012 (compared to 2011, especially for overflights), except Albania where the traffic growth forecast for 2012 (+1.9%) is inflated by the bounce back from Autumn 2011 Greek strikes and visa relaxation measures. Poland, benefiting from Euro12 football cup additional traffic (around 7,000 additional flights), as well as Estonia and Moldova are the rare States showing traffic expansion (also related to overflight growth from/to Russia) show the highest 2012 traffic growth rates of the region (+6.1% ,7.6% and 7.9% respectively, compared to 2011 growth).

Figure 9. Forecast detail for 2012.

Figure 10 shows that year 2013 is expected to see stagnation (0%, ±1.3%) as a result of:

limited economic growth next year (Section 3),

shortfall effect on 2012 from leap year (a loss of 0.3% growth), and special events (0.1% less growth),

gradual recovery from Egypt and Libya arrival/departure “normal” growth.

This is a significant downward revision from February forecast (+1.5%). The slower pace of growth in Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Turkey have dragged down the overall traffic growth for 2013 (when compared to 2012).



Figure 10. Forecast detail for 2013.

4.2 Medium-term outlook (up to 2018)

After 2013, the traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around 2.9% increase per year slowing somewhat in the last year of the forecast mainly as the airport capacity constraints become an issue (see section 4.3 in Ref. 5). As Figure 2 on page ii shows, the growth is not uniform across Europe. While the growth in percentage terms is clearly stronger in the East (more growth potential than in the traditional more mature Western markets), the busiest Western States (e.g. Germany, UK) will see the highest number of additional movements between now and 2018 as well as Turkey and Ukraine (Figure 11). Turkey will also maintain its position of fast grower and main contributor to European traffic growth with Turkish internals, in particular, being the flow adding the most flights over the next 7 years (Figure 12).

Figure 13 shows the corresponding Figure 11 at functional airspace block (FAB) level. The Danube FAB is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate (+4.3%) followed by the Baltic FAB (+3.9%) over the next 7 years. FABEC (the busiest European FAB with more than 15,000 flights per day in 2011), will experience more limited average annual growth rate of around 1.6%. In terms of additional traffic, FABEC is likely to add 12% more flights in 2018 than in 2011, corresponding to around 1,800 more flights per day on average. Danube FAB is expected to bring nearly 35% more flights in 2018 than in 2011, adding some 700 flights a day. South-West FAB traffic growth is expected to remain the weakest of the FABs (+0.6%) over the 7 years (around 200 flights per day, on average). NEFAB’s average annual growth rate between 2012 and 2018 is around 2.5% per year on average, corresponding to around 450 flights per day.



Annex D gives the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas and illustrates the imbalance in growth.

Figure 11. Additional movements per day per State, 2018 v 2011.



Figure 12. Flows adding most movements, 2018 v 2011.




Figure 13. Average annual growth rates for FABs3, 2018 v 2011.

4.3 Risks to forecast growth

Users of the forecast are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast is prepared in the conditions of unstable economic situation with serious risk of further aggravation and downside effects on traffic development.

The main sources of uncertainty in the forecast are:

The economic forecasts (Annex B.1) used here were updated in August 2012, when reforms have been undertaken to ensure the stability of the Eurozone banking system. These developments are still submitted to approval at the time of writing. The economic adjustment, taking place across Euro area member states, should be a contributor to future growth; however, the economic recovery might take longer than expected (Spain, Greece and Italy economic growths are forecasted to still be negative in 2013). Currently, the “neither better nor worse” situation in the zone leaves the risk of further deterioration open.

Along with the actual uncertainty in economic growth, severe cuts in spending and tax hikes have been put in place by European States to balance their budgets (eg Spain, France). Such state control measures might lead to industrial unrest. The same applies for the private sector where air industry operators might have to handle protest from the workforce against saving plans (day-to-day flight

3 NEFAB growth rate largely distorted following DK-SE removal from NEFAB initiative from 2012 onwards.


disruption). These represent a downside risk for future traffic development as presented in this report.

Load factors remain at or near record highs. When traffic begins to grow again, this means that load factors will be able to absorb less of the passenger growth than they have in past years. The forecast includes assumptions about the future development of load factors, but from the present position, the eventual recovery could come more rapidly than anticipated.

Network changes and the route choice of airlines have a large influence on the number of overflights. The recent events in North Africa have an important impact on overflights for Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, FYROM, Greece, Italy, Malta and Slovenia. We have included only one of a number of different recovery patterns.

More generally, future network changes (eg. new routes) are not modeled by the forecast.

Tourism trends are quite variable. The medium-term forecast aims to be accurate over the seven-year period, rather than identifying which will be the new holiday “destination of preference” in a given year. Although the “usual traffic flows in North Africa” seem to have well restarted in the region, the risk for potential disruption still has great resonance. Such changes in traffic patterns for substitute destinations are not included in the forecast.

Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation and investment. With fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer.

Participation of aviation in the Emission Trading Scheme, currently under intense debate, is nevertheless integrated into the forecast. However, such regulatory measures (eg new tax regimes or further environmental limits) contribute to the uncertainty of air transport growth and can change rapidly the local outlook for flight growth.

Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. The last seven years have not been quiet ones for aviation. There is no reason to believe the next seven years will be uneventful, with the effects of a further volcano eruption or an H1N1 flu pandemic being some of the risks. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant.

4.4 Comparison with previous forecast

Figure 14 illustrates that the current forecast (MTF12b) for total Europe start slower than the seven-year forecast released in February 2012 (MTF12). Over the first two years, the current base scenario (dark blue solid line) is now following the low scenario issued in February (light blue dashed line). Indeed, following the deterioration of the economic outlook in 2013, the flight forecast is now much lower for next year. With no growth in 2013 and comparable growth in later years the forecast now finishes below the MTF12 of February (by more than 1% lower).



Figure 14. For total Europe, current forecast is aligned with low-scenario of the MTF12 from February, in the short-term.

Since the recent traffic developments and the future expectations are uneven across Europe, differences at State and flow levels are often more profound. Figure 15 depicts the size of the revisions in the forecast for total traffic per State in 2018. Most of these initiate already in the early years of the forecast and are carried forward into the later years which typically have similar growth rates as previously. The biggest revisions on both sides (downwards for Armenia and Canary Islands, upwards for Iceland, Romania, Slovakia and Estonia) are related to recent developments in the overflight traffic as discussed in section 4.1 and further illustrate the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in network and route choice listed as one of the major forecast risks in Section 4.3.



Figure 15. Forecast revision for 2018 per State.




5. GLOSSARY

AAGR Average annual growth ACC Area Control Centre B (in tables) Baseline Scenario CFMU Central Flow Management Unit4 ESRA Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex A.1) ETS Emission Trading Scheme EU27 European Union (27 States) FAB Functional Airspace Block FIR Flight Information Region GDP Gross Domestic Product H (in tables) High-Growth Scenario IFR Instrument Flight Rules L (in tables) Low-Growth Scenario MTF Medium-Term Forecast MTF12 February 2012 publication of the MTF MTF12b September 2012 publication of the MTF SES Single European Sky SID STATFOR Interactive Dashboard STATFOR Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service STF Short-Term Forecast TR Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs) TZ Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and

Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro) UIR Upper Flight Information Region

Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref. 4).

4 Now Directorate Network Management but still referred to as CFMU for traffic data.


ANNEX A. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS

A.1 ESRA08

The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. ‘ESRA08’ was introduced in the MTF09 report. It is now used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (eg. Armenia and Latvia) though still within ECAC.

Figure 16. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

Traffic zones are represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a FIR and an ACC definition is small.



A.2 Traffic regions

The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.

Traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed in Figure 17 (for example in Figure 28). Each traffic region is made up of a number of traffic zones (=States). In August 2012, STATFOR has updated its traffic region definition as part of the 2012 actions agreed by the STATFOR User Group. The re-definition of the traffic region aims at improving consistency with ICAO and AEA ones. The new definition is listed in Figure 17 (and directly influencing the results in Figure 28, for example). In Figure 17, traffic zones are indicated by the first letters of the ICAO location codes for brevity.

As far as “Europe” is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in the previous section) and Other Europe.

For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a “North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an Eastern region.

The ‘Other Europe’ region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along the border of ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan.

The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is displayed in Figure 18.

Figure 17. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.

ICAO region/country

ESRA North-West EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS

ESRA Mediterranean GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT

BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK ESRA East

BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE, LX, UB, UD, UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW, Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR

Other Europe

North America C, K, P

Mid-America M, T

South-America S

North-Africa DA, DT, GM, HE, HL

Southern Africa D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)

Middle-East L, O (except OA, OP)

A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and areas in Other Europe)

Asia/Pacific



Figure 18. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.

The substantial changes brought by the new Traffic Region definition (compared to the previous one, shown in Figure 19) are:

A large region named “Asia/Pacific” now covers the Far East and Australasia regions. The old “Former CIS” region has been redistributed between “Other Europe” and Asia/Pacific. And the former “Oceania” region has disappeared being fully integrated into Asia/Pacific.

Other Europe stands for the complementary part of ESRA. Greenland and Iceland have been integrated into this region and no longer contribute to the North American traffic.

Sudan and South Sudan have been moved to Southern Africa

Afghanistan and Pakistan no longer belong to the Middle East ; they now belong to Asia/Pacific



Figure 19. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics before 31 August 2012.

A.3 Functional Airspace Blocks

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from 2012 to 2016 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 20). FAB initiatives (definitions) are constantly evolving according to the targets defined to improve the performance of the European air traffic management network. The FAB initiatives have been updated in August 2012 along with the new definitions stipulated by the European Commission. The following FABs modifications have been covered here:

UK-Ireland FAB

Danish-Swedish FAB, now out of North European FAB

Baltic FAB (Lithuania, Poland)

BLUE MED FAB (Albania, Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Malta), now excludes Tunisia and Egypt

Danube FAB (Bulgaria, Romania)

FAB CE (Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Slovenia)

FABEC (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland)

North European FAB (Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Norway)

South West FAB (Portugal [Santa Maria FIR excluded], Spain).



Figure 20. FAB initiatives as of August 2012.

Source: EUROCONTROL PRU




ANNEX B. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

In addition to recent traffic developments, this forecast takes a fresh look at the economics and the effect of Arab Spring cancellations. All other forecast assumptions have remained unchanged since the February forecast (see Annex C Ref. 5).

B.1 Economic growth

Economic growth is one of the major drivers of air traffic growth. The MTF method uses the GDP growth to model the economic developments. Forecasts of GDP growth all come from a single coherent source, Oxford Economics Ltd., and have been updated for this forecast with mid-August 2012 data.

Figure 21. GDP forecast revised down for 2012.

Compared to the figures used in February, and, as described in Section 3, economic data for the EU has been revised:

Slightly downwards for 2012 to -0.3% (from 0% in February),

Considerably downwards for 2013 to 0.6% (from 1.6% in February),

Slightly downwards for 2014 to 2% (from 2.4% in February),

From 2015 onwards, the revision is not significant (see Figure 21).

Looking at individual States, Figure 22 (left side) illustrates that for 2012 there were both some upward and downward revisions. The biggest downwards revisions have been observed for Czech Republic (from 0.1% to -1.6%), Belgium/Luxembourg and Netherlands (biggest changes taking into account the GDP prices). On the other side of the scale, GDP growth rates have been revised upwards for 2012 for Sweden (from 0.5% to 2%), Switzerland and Norway. From the big States, big downward changes, relatively to GDP prices, have been observed for UK (from +0.3% to -0.4%), Germany, Spain and Italy while France has been somewhat unchanged (from -0.2% to -0.1%).



In 2013 (Figure 22, right side), all States but two saw a downwards revision. On the most marked ones are the revisions for the “peripheral States of the Eurozone”, very affected by the global economic crisis: Italy, Portugal and Spain. Figure 23-Figure 25 list the base scenario figures for reference5.

Figure 22. GDP of almost all States revised down in 2013

5 High- and low-growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets from base: +1%, -0.8% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -0.8% for early years and small States (halved in the first year for this mid-year issue of the forecast), +0.5%, -0.5% for late years and big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for later years and small States.

Figure 23. GDP growth by Traffic Zone

Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Aug2012. Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 17/08/2012

Actual Base

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Albania 3.3% 3.5% 2.8% 2.0% 3.6% 4.7% 5.0% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5%

Armenia -14% 2.1% 4.6% 3.0% 3.7% 4.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Austria -3.4% 2.5% 3.0% 0.6% 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

Azerbaijan 9.3% 5.0% 0.1% 3.4% 3.9% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4%

Belarus 0.2% 7.7% 5.2% 1.5% 3.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg -2.7% 2.4% 1.8% -0.3% 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

Bosnia-Herzegovina -3.0% 0.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.9% 4.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.5% 4.5%

Bulgaria -5.7% 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 2.5% 4.4% 5.5% 5.8% 5.1% 5.1%

Canary Islands -3.7% -0.1% 0.7% -1.4% -2.1% 0.3% 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

Croatia -6.8% -1.1% -0.2% -1.2% 0.3% 2.7% 4.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.6%

Cyprus -1.9% 1.1% 0.5% -2.0% -0.8% 1.2% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1%

Czech Republic -4.5% 2.6% 1.7% -1.5% 1.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0%

Denmark -5.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%

Estonia -14% 2.3% 7.6% 1.5% 3.2% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3%

FYROM -1.0% 1.7% 3.2% 1.6% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.2% 3.6% 3.6%

2012 2013



Actual Base

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Finland -8.5% 3.3% 2.7% 1.0% 1.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

France -3.1% 1.6% 1.7% -0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

Georgia -3.8% 6.3% 7.1% 5.3% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6%

Germany -5.1% 3.6% 3.1% 0.5% 1.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8%

Greece -3.3% -3.4% -6.9% -7.2% -3.0% -0.7% 1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%

Hungary -6.7% 1.2% 1.7% -1.3% 1.0% 2.6% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9%

Iceland -6.8% -4.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%

Ireland -5.5% -0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.9% 3.0% 3.8% 4.1% 4.1%

Italy -5.5% 1.8% 0.5% -2.3% -0.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6%

Latvia -18% -0.3% 5.5% 2.2% 3.5% 5.2% 5.7% 5.2% 4.9% 4.9%

Lisbon FIR -2.9% 1.4% -1.6% -3.4% -2.1% 0.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6%

Lithuania -15% 1.4% 5.9% 2.3% 4.4% 6.1% 6.2% 5.8% 5.0% 5.0%

Malta -2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 1.1% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Moldova -6.0% 6.9% 6.4% 3.0% 4.7% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%

Netherlands -3.7% 1.6% 1.1% -0.4% 0.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%

Norway -1.6% 0.6% 1.5% 3.3% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1%

Poland 1.7% 3.9% 4.3% 2.7% 2.5% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3%

Romania -5.7% -1.9% 2.1% 0.5% 2.0% 4.1% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%

Russian Federation -7.8% 4.3% 4.3% 3.8% 3.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%

Santa Maria FIR -2.9% 1.4% -1.6% -3.4% -2.1% 0.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6%

Serbia&Montenegro -3.5% 1.0% 1.6% -0.2% 3.0% 5.2% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7%

Slovakia -4.9% 4.2% 3.3% 1.5% 1.8% 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 3.6% 3.6%

Slovenia -8.2% 1.3% 0.2% -1.7% 0.2% 1.1% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%

Spain -3.7% -0.1% 0.7% -1.4% -2.1% 0.3% 2.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

Sweden -5.0% 5.9% 4.0% 2.0% 1.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Switzerland -1.9% 3.0% 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

Turkey -4.8% 9.2% 8.5% 2.4% 4.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3%

UK -4.0% 1.8% 0.8% -0.3% 1.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Ukraine -15% 4.2% 5.1% 2.0% 4.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2%

Figure 24. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone

Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Aug 12. Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 17/08/2012

Actual Base

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

China 9.2% 10% 9.2% 7.5% 8.4% 8.8% 8.5% 8.0% 7.6% 7.6%

India 7.6% 8.2% 7.5% 5.7% 7.6% 8.7% 8.5% 7.9% 7.6% 7.6%


Figure 25. GDP growth by Traffic Region

Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Aug12 Comments: Real GDP Growth. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 03/09/2012

Actual Base

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-3.7% 2.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% ESRA East

-4.6% 1.9% 1.2% -1.6% -0.2% 1.6% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% ESRA Mediterranean

-4.1% 2.4% 2.0% 0.3% 1.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% ESRA North-West

-3.1% 5.2% 1.2% 2.6% 2.8% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% Asia/Pacific

-4.6% 4.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.5% 4.5% Mid-Atlantic

0.8% 5.4% 4.5% 2.6% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 5.3% 5.3% Middle-East

-3.1% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 3.6% 3.6% North Atlantic

1.6% 4.0% -12% 6.2% 7.5% 6.1% 5.1% 4.9% 5.4% 5.4% North-Africa

-5.9% 4.8% 4.9% 4.0% 3.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 5.5% 5.5% Other Europe

0.1% 6.1% 7.0% 3.4% 3.7% 4.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% South-Atlantic

3.8% 6.3% 5.3% 5.9% 5.9% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 6.3% 6.3% Southern Africa

B.2 North Africa

As discussed in Sections 2 and 3, traffic in the North African States (Egypt, Tunisia and Libya) has seen some significant drops since early 2011. As the political situation in these three States appears to be more stable in the recent months, the traffic is expected to gradually recover. Assumptions in this forecast have been reworked in the short-term compared to the February assumptions (see Annex C.6 in Ref.5):

1. The Tunisian traffic (international arrival/departures) is observed to have partially recovered since the beginning of 2012, experiencing the same levels of traffic as in 2010. There are no more adjustments to the flow,

2. The Libyan overflights are expected to get back to “normal” by the end of 2012,

3. The international arrival/departure traffic of Libya and Egypt will take somewhat longer to recover – till the end of the 2013 Summer season

These scenario (for items 2 and 3) have an impact on overflight traffic along the international arrival/departures of Egypt and Libya and therefore have an effect, particularly on overflights for States located in East-Mediterranean area(Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, FYROM, Greece, Italy, Malta and Slovenia).

It needs to be stressed that this is one of many possible scenarios: in reality traffic may recover with different intensity and not necessarily evenly across the two States implying upside as well as downside risks.

The assumptions presented in here have been constructed solely in support of the forecast and do not represent any political view of Eurocontrol.



B.3 Airport Switch

Since the publication of the February forecast, the opening of the Berlin/Brandenburg Airport has been postponed until the end of October 2013. The assumption about the transfer of Berlin/Tegel to Berlin/Schönefeld (becoming Berlin/Brandenburg) has been reworked: 25% of the traffic moved in 2013 and 100% in 2014.

B.4 Events and Trends

The “events and trends” assumptions have been refreshed compared to the February forecast as some events now belong to the past (eg Olympics, Euro12). On top of the updated events included in the February forecast (see Annex C.6 in Ref. 5), this forecast contains an additional scenario to factor in the impact of the recent failures of some European airlines. The arrival/departure and domestic flows in UK have been lifted down (BMIBaby discontinuation), domestic flow in Italy and in Poland have been lessened over the next months too (WindJet and OLT Regional Express failures).

B.5 Airline schedules

The schedules data originating from INNOVATA LLC have been used for the first time in this forecast. The data feed is slightly different from the OAG data previously used in the EUROCONTROL forecast (some airlines not reported or reported differently). In particular, Ryanair and British Airways data caused analysis problems, so the two airline schedules have been excluded from the input data. In the end the schedules have only been allowed to influence September and October forecasts.




ANNEX C. SUMMARY OF FORECAST FOR EUROPE

Figure 26. Growth in Europe


Figure 27. Traffic on main flow categories in Europe

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 7,616 7,676 7,952 8,224 8,520 8,830 9,106 . . . . . -2.2% 0.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.1% 2.3%

B 8,241 8,182 7,602 7,562 7,790 7,591 7,542 7,710 7,906 8,131 8,336 8,533 4.3% -0.7% -7.1% -0.5% 3.0% -2.5% -0.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 1.3%

Total: Internal

L . . . . . 7,567 7,424 7,496 7,617 7,763 7,877 7,999 . . . . . -2.9% -1.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 0.4%

H . . . . . 1,933 2,005 2,126 2,243 2,367 2,519 2,657 . . . . . 2.6% 3.7% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 6.4% 5.5% 5.0%

B 1,721 1,807 1,711 1,815 1,883 1,926 1,971 2,059 2,148 2,240 2,348 2,450 8.2% 5.0% -5.3% 6.1% 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% 4.3% 3.8%

Total: Arr/Dep

L . . . . . 1,920 1,938 2,001 2,065 2,131 2,202 2,274 . . . . . 1.9% 1.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7%

H . . . . . 123 129 138 146 155 164 175 . . . . . 9.8% 5.4% 6.5% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 6.5% 6.6%

B 81 94 100 116 112 121 126 132 139 146 153 162 20% 16% 7.1% 15% -3.4% 8.7% 3.5% 5.4% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.4% 5.4%

Total: Overflight

L . . . . . 120 122 128 133 139 145 152 . . . . . 7.6% 1.8% 4.5% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.6% 4.5%

H . . . . . 9,672 9,810 10,215 10,613 11,043 11,513 11,938 . . . . . -1.2% 1.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.7% 2.9%

B 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,638 9,639 9,901 10,193 10,518 10,837 11,145 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -1.5% 0.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9%

Grand Total

L . . . . . 9,607 9,485 9,625 9,815 10,033 10,224 10,425 . . . . . -1.8% -1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 0.9%



Figure 28. Traffic and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth ESRA08

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2014 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . 3606.4 3629.3 3736.1 3820.0 3907.4 3969.2 . . . . -2.0% 0.6% 2.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 4037.1

B 3973.1 3665.3 3573.2 3679.4 3596.2 3580.1 3646.6 3709.7 3781.6 3818.9 3865.4 -0.6% -7.7% -2.5% -2.3%3.0% -0.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7%

1 ESRA North-W

ESRA North-W

L . . . 3585.9 3531.8 3560.3 3593.1 3635.5 3651.0 3676.5 . . . . -2.5% -1.5% 0.8% 1.2% . 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% -0.0%

H . . . . 1677.8 1681.3 1797.1 1863.5 1929.9 1986.2 . . . . 0.2% 0.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7% 3.6% 2.9% 2.5% 1737.8

B 1684.3 1548.8 1576.8 1674.8 1671.8 1649.9 1680.7 1724.7 1774.9 1820.8 -1.5%1863.5 -8.0% 1.8% 6.2% -0.2% -1.3% 1.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 1.5%

2 ESRA Mediter

ESRA North-W

L . . . . 1665.9 1620.7 1628.6 1654.9 1686.7 1711.6 1737.1 . . . . -0.5% -2.7% 0.5% 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5%

H . . . 1387.3 1399.1 1446.6 1508.3 1578.6 1682.4 1757.8 . . . . -6.3% 0.9% 3.4%. 4.3% 4.7% 6.6% 4.5% 2.5%

B 1518.2 1445.0 1466.9 1480.4 1382.8 1371.1 1446.6 1503.3 1579.1 1640.5 -3.5% -4.8% 1.5% 0.9% -6.6% -0.8% 2.2% 3.2% 3.9% 5.0% 3.9% 1401.3 1.5%

3 ESRA Mediter

ESRA Mediter

L . . . . 1379.0 1348.4 1359.1 1389.2 1428.9 1474.6 .1515.3 . . . -6.9% -2.2% 0.8% 2.2% 2.9% 3.2% 2.8% 0.3%

H . . . . 526.3 537.3 568.5 599.9 632.7 661.6 693.2 . . . . 1.2% 2.1% 5.8% 5.5% 5.5% 4.6% 4.8% 4.2%

B 560.0 513.5 510.6 520.3 523.8 524.4 542.7 563.1 584.1 600.8 619.5 5.9% -8.3% -0.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5%

4 ESRA East

ESRA North-W

L . . . . 521.5 514.6 538.5 552.2 561.9 573.4 . . . . 0.2% -1.3% 2.0% 2.6% 2.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 525.0

H . . . . 298.1 303.7 315.9 327.9 340.4 352.5 . . . . -1.3% 1.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.8% 2.8% 365.8

B 319.2 290.4 288.8 302.0 297.4 299.2 308.3 317.0 325.8 333.6 342.3 1.2% -9.0% -0.6% -1.5%4.6% 0.6% 3.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 1.8%

5 ESRA North-W

North Atlant

L . . . 296.6 294.8 300.7 306.3 311.8 316.8 322.5 . . . . -1.8% -0.6% 2.0% 1.8% . 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 0.9%

H . . . . 257.3 264.9 295.5 310.1 322.8 336.8 . . . . 5.8% 3.0% 6.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.1% 4.4% 4.8% 281.3

B 242.6 203.6 215.4 243.3 256.3 259.6 270.5 280.9 291.4 299.8 9.3%309.2 -16% 5.8% 13% 5.3% 1.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5%

6 ESRA North-W

Other Europe

L . . . . 255.3 255.0 262.2 269.3 276.4 281.7 287.9 . . . . 4.9% -0.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4%

H . . . . 219.4 223.1 240.0 257.8 277.1 296.0 317.3 . . . . -3.7% 1.7% 7.5% 7.4% 7.5% 6.8% 7.2% 4.8%

B 248.5 237.8 234.9 227.8 218.4 217.1 227.1 238.0 249.2 259.3 270.6 3.5% -4.3% -1.2% -3.0% -4.1% -0.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7% 4.1% 4.3% 2.5%

ESRA East

ESRA East 7

L . . . . 217.6 213.2 219.9 227.5 235.4 242.0 249.5 . . . . -4.5% -2.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 3.1% 1.3%

H . . . . 199.1 205.4 222.7 241.0 261.3 290.6 314.7 . . . . -3.8% 3.2% 8.4% 8.2% 8.4% 11% 8.3% 6.2%

B 198.0 191.5 199.3 207.0 198.1 199.7 211.2 224.3 238.1 257.0 273.4 2.0% -3.3% 4.1% 3.8% -4.3% 0.8% 5.7% 6.2% 6.1% 7.9% 6.4% 4.1%

ESRA East

ESRA Mediter

8

L . . . . 197.3 195.5 203.5 213.4 223.9 236.0 247.3 . . . . -4.7% -0.9% 4.1% 4.9% 4.9% 5.4% 4.8% 2.6%




ANNEX D. FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH

Figure 29. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2007-2018

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 202 214 224 234 245 257 268 4.5%

B 142 148 161 181 197 201 210 217 224 233 242 251 3.5%

Albania

L . . . . . 200 206 210 215 221 227 233 2.4%

H . . . . . 58 62 67 73 79 86 93 7.2%

B 48 52 48 53 57 58 60 64 69 74 79 85 5.8%

Armenia

L . . . . . 58 59 62 66 70 74 78 4.6%

H . . . . . 1,148 1,182 1,239 1,292 1,348 1,404 1,455 3.4%

B 1,180 1,204 1,113 1,137 1,154 1,144 1,159 1,198 1,237 1,279 1,319 1,359 2.4%

Austria

L . . . . . 1,139 1,139 1,162 1,187 1,215 1,238 1,263 1.3%

H . . . . . 131 136 149 161 175 195 212 8.0%

B 95 108 108 120 124 130 133 144 154 165 180 194 6.6%

Azerbaijan

L . . . . . 130 131 139 148 157 167 178 5.3%

H . . . . . 241 251 268 285 302 321 339 6.0%

B 173 199 182 196 225 240 245 258 270 283 296 309 4.6%

Belarus

L . . . . . 239 241 249 258 268 276 285 3.5%

H . . . . . 1,104 1,139 1,185 1,226 1,269 1,307 1,347 3.0%

B 1,100 1,108 1,020 1,035 1,091 1,100 1,121 1,149 1,180 1,214 1,240 1,268 2.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 1,096 1,102 1,116 1,135 1,158 1,174 1,193 1.3%

H . . . . . 276 289 304 320 338 358 375 4.5%

B 200 218 224 250 276 275 282 293 305 317 331 344 3.2%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . 274 277 284 292 301 310 319 2.1%

H . . . . . 549 581 616 649 686 751 794 5.7%

B 444 478 477 504 539 547 570 595 620 647 692 726 4.3%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 544 560 579 598 618 646 670 3.1%

H . . . . . 277 272 281 294 309 322 336 1.8%

B 308 307 267 275 298 276 266 269 276 285 292 300 0.1%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . 275 261 260 263 268 272 276 -1.1%

H . . . . . 503 522 550 578 608 643 673 4.4%

B 398 422 422 459 497 501 511 530 551 573 597 620 3.2%

Croatia

L . . . . . 499 501 514 528 544 559 575 2.1%

H . . . . . 279 288 305 321 339 364 384 4.6%

B 242 272 268 285 281 277 282 292 303 316 332 346 3.0%

Cyprus

L . . . . . 275 275 282 290 298 309 318 1.8%

H . . . . . 690 708 750 788 829 871 910 3.9%

B 646 682 648 668 695 687 694 721 747 775 799 823 2.4%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . 684 681 697 715 733 747 761 1.3%



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 608 621 644 665 686 704 723 2.1%

B 631 629 576 595 625 606 612 626 642 658 670 683 1.3%

Denmark

L . . . . . 604 602 609 618 629 635 643 0.4%

H . . . . . 192 200 213 226 239 252 266 5.9%

B 153 174 153 156 178 192 196 205 214 224 233 242 4.5%

Estonia

L . . . . . 191 193 199 205 213 218 225 3.4%

H . . . . . 119 122 128 135 141 149 156 3.2%

B 123 125 125 125 124 118 119 123 128 133 139 144 2.1%

FYROM

L . . . . . 118 117 119 122 126 130 133 1.0%

H . . . . . 256 261 273 282 293 302 312 2.2%

B 245 261 240 242 267 256 257 264 270 278 283 289 1.1%

Finland

L . . . . . 255 253 257 261 266 269 273 0.3%

H . . . . . 2,969 3,022 3,126 3,230 3,343 3,436 3,530 2.5%

B 3,025 3,020 2,801 2,794 2,968 2,959 2,971 3,033 3,111 3,199 3,262 3,331 1.7%

France

L . . . . . 2,948 2,922 2,945 2,992 3,048 3,084 3,127 0.7%

H . . . . . 110 119 129 139 150 168 181 7.4%

B 80 80 77 94 110 110 116 125 133 142 155 166 6.1%

Georgia

L . . . . . 109 114 121 128 135 144 153 4.8%

H . . . . . 3,058 3,108 3,240 3,360 3,486 3,605 3,722 2.8%

B 3,108 3,151 2,930 2,981 3,078 3,046 3,055 3,141 3,229 3,325 3,403 3,486 1.8%

Germany

L . . . . . 3,035 3,003 3,049 3,105 3,166 3,210 3,261 0.8%

H . . . . . 649 666 692 719 751 787 819 3.2%

B 621 643 638 655 656 646 654 670 690 715 741 766 2.3%

Greece

L . . . . . 644 642 650 663 680 697 715 1.2%

H . . . . . 602 609 643 677 714 759 798 3.7%

B 615 622 608 622 617 599 596 619 644 670 701 729 2.4%

Hungary

L . . . . . 597 585 600 617 636 655 674 1.3%

H . . . . . 124 130 137 143 150 157 165 5.9%

B 105 110 101 102 111 124 128 132 137 142 147 153 4.7%

Iceland

L . . . . . 123 125 129 132 136 139 143 3.7%

H . . . . . 527 543 571 601 635 669 706 4.4%

B 597 601 530 513 523 525 533 550 569 590 610 632 2.7%

Ireland

L . . . . . 523 524 534 546 560 572 587 1.7%

H . . . . . 1,716 1,744 1,818 1,893 1,974 2,052 2,128 3.0%

B 1,779 1,736 1,647 1,712 1,726 1,710 1,716 1,762 1,818 1,880 1,935 1,992 2.1%

Italy

L . . . . . 1,705 1,686 1,708 1,742 1,783 1,815 1,850 1.0%

H . . . . . 237 249 268 286 304 323 343 5.5%

B 202 225 206 214 235 236 243 255 268 281 293 306 3.8%

Latvia

L . . . . . 235 238 247 256 265 273 281 2.6%



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 446 450 466 483 501 520 540 2.7%

B 427 438 406 429 450 445 440 443 452 467 478 489 1.2%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . 443 432 429 432 441 446 453 0.1%

H . . . . . 238 253 271 287 304 321 338 5.4%

B 195 219 192 206 233 237 247 259 271 282 293 305 3.9%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 236 243 251 259 267 274 281 2.7%

H . . . . . 98 106 112 118 124 132 140 8.1%

B 82 84 85 95 81 97 104 108 112 116 122 127 6.7%

Malta

L . . . . . 97 102 105 108 111 114 118 5.6%

H . . . . . 66 73 77 83 88 95 102 7.7%

B 35 41 44 54 60 65 71 74 78 82 87 92 6.2%

Moldova

L . . . . . 65 70 72 75 78 81 85 5.0%

H . . . . . 327 335 354 374 396 417 439 3.2%

B 323 331 312 339 352 325 329 341 356 372 387 402 1.9%

Morocco

L . . . . . 324 323 330 340 352 362 373 0.8%

H . . . . . 1,099 1,126 1,172 1,203 1,230 1,255 1,282 2.4%

B 1,108 1,090 996 1,013 1,085 1,095 1,109 1,137 1,165 1,194 1,210 1,228 1.8%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 1,091 1,092 1,106 1,123 1,143 1,158 1,176 1.2%

H . . . . . 591 607 626 644 663 679 697 3.1%

B 536 550 526 537 563 590 599 612 624 638 649 661 2.3%

Norway

L . . . . . 588 592 597 604 612 617 623 1.4%

H . . . . . 697 728 774 820 868 915 965 5.7%

B 556 612 566 599 655 694 713 742 772 803 832 862 4.0%

Poland

L . . . . . 692 700 718 739 759 777 796 2.8%

H . . . . . 500 531 567 603 643 697 742 6.2%

B 432 444 434 470 487 498 521 545 571 599 634 666 4.6%

Romania

L . . . . . 496 511 528 547 567 591 613 3.3%

H . . . . . 122 127 134 140 148 154 162 4.0%

B 109 116 113 118 123 121 125 129 133 139 143 149 2.8%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . 121 122 125 128 131 134 137 1.6%

H . . . . . 545 573 603 633 666 708 742 4.2%

B 457 497 513 543 558 543 561 582 604 628 658 684 3.0%

Serbia&Montenegro

L . . . . . 541 551 564 580 598 616 635 1.9%

H . . . . . 395 412 436 458 483 511 537 5.0%

B 324 345 337 370 382 393 404 419 436 453 472 490 3.6%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 392 397 407 418 430 442 454 2.5%

H . . . . . 355 371 390 408 428 450 469 4.2%

B 306 327 313 328 353 353 363 376 389 404 419 434 3.0%

Slovenia

L . . . . . 352 356 364 373 383 393 402 1.9%


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011 2017

H . . . . . 1,598 1,599 1,650 1,714 1,785 1,846 1,914 2.0%

B 1,779 1,747 1,581 1,608 1,665 1,591 1,563 1,581 1,623 1,675 1,714 1,758 0.8%

Spain

L . . . . . 1,585 1,532 1,525 1,547 1,578 1,598 1,624 -0.4%

H . . . . . 730 746 781 811 841 869 899 3.1%

B 708 736 654 664 724 727 735 759 781 803 822 842 2.2%

Sweden

L . . . . . 725 724 738 752 766 777 789 1.2%

H . . . . . 1,064 1,101 1,139 1,176 1,212 1,244 1,277 2.7%

B 1,093 1,096 1,018 1,025 1,063 1,060 1,082 1,106 1,135 1,166 1,189 1,213 1.9%

Switzerland

L . . . . . 1,056 1,064 1,073 1,091 1,112 1,127 1,144 1.1%

H . . . . . 1,077 1,127 1,197 1,268 1,346 1,520 1,620 6.6%

B 757 822 857 965 1,039 1,073 1,106 1,171 1,231 1,296 1,425 1,516 5.5%

Turkey

L . . . . . 1,069 1,088 1,143 1,195 1,248 1,333 1,401 4.4%

H . . . . . 472 500 539 577 617 664 709 6.6%

B 373 406 378 429 453 470 492 520 549 580 614 647 5.2%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 469 484 506 529 553 577 603 4.2%

H . . . . . 2,218 2,235 2,319 2,397 2,482 2,554 2,631 2.3%

B 2,550 2,514 2,278 2,181 2,241 2,212 2,201 2,257 2,312 2,375 2,426 2,482 1.5%

UK

L . . . . . 2,206 2,169 2,204 2,241 2,283 2,317 2,355 0.7%

H . . . . . 9,515 9,667 10,061 10,446 10,863 11,321 11,733 2.8%

B 9,915 9,954 9,301 9,367 9,641 9,483 9,500 9,755 10,038 10,355 10,667 10,967 1.9%

ESRA02

L . . . . . 9,452 9,348 9,483 9,666 9,878 10,065 10,260 0.9%

H . . . . . 8,892 9,009 9,371 9,722 10,101 10,471 10,836 2.6%

B 9,441 9,470 8,787 8,805 9,036 8,861 8,850 9,069 9,321 9,602 9,846 10,097 1.6%

EU27

L . . . . . 8,831 8,706 8,810 8,965 9,147 9,289 9,446 0.6%

H . . . . . 9,672 9,810 10,215 10,613 11,043 11,513 11,938 2.9%

B 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,638 9,639 9,901 10,193 10,518 10,837 11,145 1.9%

ESRA08

L . . . . . 9,607 9,485 9,625 9,815 10,033 10,224 10,425 0.9%

H . . . . . 9,287 9,414 9,791 10,156 10,550 10,933 11,312 2.7%

B 9,793 9,833 9,152 9,171 9,407 9,255 9,250 9,480 9,742 10,034 10,287 10,548 1.6%

SES

L . . . . . 9,224 9,102 9,212 9,374 9,563 9,709 9,873 0.7%

H . . . . . 792 813 866 917 972 1,026 1,083 5.6%

B 635 704 644 679 741 789 796 829 864 899 932 967 3.9%

Baltic FAB

L . . . . . 786 782 803 827 850 871 893 2.7%

H . . . . . 2,306 2,374 2,476 2,581 2,698 2,821 2,935 3.7%

B 2,312 2,294 2,207 2,286 2,283 2,297 2,332 2,397 2,475 2,563 2,651 2,736 2.6%

BLUE MED FAB

L . . . . . 2,289 2,290 2,323 2,374 2,433 2,486 2,541 1.5%

H . . . . . 784 816 867 918 975 1,060 1,125 5.8%

B 646 690 687 734 758 781 800 836 873 913 971 1,019 4.3%

Danube FAB

L . . . . . 778 786 811 839 868 906 939 3.1%



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 1,915 1,962 2,067 2,168 2,274 2,388 2,491 3.8%

B 1,847 1,904 1,806 1,864 1,914 1,907 1,924 1,993 2,064 2,141 2,216 2,289 2.6%

FAB CE

L . . . . . 1,900 1,890 1,932 1,980 2,031 2,075 2,122 1.5%

H . . . . . 5,647 5,712 5,929 6,128 6,337 6,523 6,709 2.4%

B 5,790 5,817 5,406 5,431 5,671 5,628 5,617 5,752 5,904 6,070 6,194 6,327 1.6%

FABEC

L . . . . . 5,609 5,526 5,589 5,682 5,788 5,861 5,946 0.7%

H . . . . . 1,016 1,042 1,088 1,130 1,174 1,215 1,259 3.5%

B 927 969 904 924 988 1,013 1,026 1,056 1,085 1,117 1,143 1,172 2.5%

NEFAB

L . . . . . 1,010 1,011 1,029 1,047 1,067 1,082 1,099 1.5%

H . . . . . 1,740 1,731 1,786 1,856 1,934 2,001 2,075 1.9%

B 1,946 1,912 1,733 1,765 1,823 1,733 1,692 1,710 1,755 1,810 1,852 1,899 0.6%

South West FAB

L . . . . . 1,726 1,659 1,650 1,673 1,705 1,726 1,752 -0.6%

H . . . . . 2,250 2,264 2,351 2,432 2,520 2,597 2,678 2.4%

B 2,597 2,559 2,316 2,216 2,272 2,244 2,229 2,286 2,343 2,407 2,460 2,517 1.5%

UK-Ireland FAB

L . . . . . 2,238 2,197 2,232 2,270 2,313 2,347 2,386 0.7%

H . . . . . 993 1,007 1,049 1,085 1,122 1,155 1,190 2.4%

B 1,008 1,031 931 953 1,008 990 991 1,019 1,046 1,074 1,096 1,120 1.5%

DK-SE FAB

L . . . . . 986 976 992 1,008 1,026 1,037 1,052 0.6%



Figure 30. Forecast Summary: Annual growth rates 2007-2018

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 2.3% 6.1% 4.6% 4.4% 4.6% 5.1% 4.2% 4.5%

B 19% 4.5% 8.9% 12% 8.7% 1.9% 4.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5%

Albania

L . . . . . 1.4% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4%

H . . . . . 2.0% 5.5% 9.2% 8.3% 8.3% 9.1% 8.2% 7.2%

B 46% 8.0% -6.7% 9.3% 8.1% 1.4% 3.7% 7.2% 7.1% 7.0% 7.3% 7.0% 5.8%

Armenia

L . . . . . 0.8% 2.2% 5.9% 6.0% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 4.6%

H . . . . . -0.5% 2.9% 4.9% 4.3% 4.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.4%

B 8.1% 2.0% -7.6% 2.2% 1.5% -0.9% 1.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.4%

Austria

L . . . . . -1.3% -0.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.3%

H . . . . . 5.8% 3.8% 9.5% 8.4% 8.5% 12% 8.6% 8.0%

B 7.5% 13% 0.5% 11% 2.8% 5.4% 2.2% 7.8% 7.1% 7.1% 9.4% 7.7% 6.6%

Azerbaijan

L . . . . . 4.9% 0.9% 6.6% 6.0% 5.9% 6.9% 6.3% 5.3%

H . . . . . 7.1% 4.1% 6.9% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 5.8% 6.0%

B 19% 16% -8.6% 7.7% 15% 6.7% 2.3% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6%

Belarus

L . . . . . 6.3% 0.9% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5%

H . . . . . 1.1% 3.2% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0%

B 4.2% 0.7% -7.9% 1.5% 5.4% 0.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 0.4% 0.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3%

H . . . . . 0.1% 4.6% 5.5% 5.2% 5.4% 6.0% 4.9% 4.5%

B 19% 8.5% 3.1% 11% 10% -0.3% 2.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.5% 3.9% 3.2%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . -0.8% 1.2% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.1%

H . . . . . 1.8% 5.9% 6.1% 5.4% 5.6% 9.5% 5.8% 5.7%

B 11% 7.7% -0.2% 5.6% 7.1% 1.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 7.0% 4.9% 4.3%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 1.0% 2.8% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 4.6% 3.7% 3.1%

H . . . . . -6.9% -1.9% 3.4% 4.7% 5.1% 4.1% 4.5% 1.8%

B 1.7% -0.2% -13% 3.2% 8.2% -7.2% -3.7% 1.0% 2.8% 3.4% 2.4% 2.7% 0.1%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . -7.5% -5.0% -0.7% 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% -1.1%

H . . . . . 1.1% 3.8% 5.4% 5.1% 5.2% 5.7% 4.7% 4.4%

B 17% 6.0% 0.1% 8.7% 8.4% 0.7% 2.0% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.8% 3.2%

Croatia

L . . . . . 0.3% 0.6% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.1%

H . . . . . -0.9% 3.4% 5.8% 5.3% 5.6% 7.2% 5.7% 4.6%

B 12% 12% -1.7% 6.4% -1.2% -1.6% 1.8% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 5.2% 4.3% 3.0%

Cyprus

L . . . . . -2.2% 0.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.5% 3.1% 1.8%

H . . . . . -0.8% 2.6% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 4.5% 3.9%

B 5.6% 5.6% -5.0% 3.2% 4.0% -1.2% 1.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 2.4%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . -1.6% -0.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.3%

H . . . . . -2.7% 2.2% 3.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.6% 2.7% 2.1%

B 4.8% -0.3% -8.5% 3.3% 5.1% -3.0% 1.0% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 1.8% 2.0% 1.3%

Denmark

L . . . . . -3.4% -0.3% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4%




2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 8.0% 4.1% 6.6% 5.9% 5.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.9%

B 12% 13% -12% 2.1% 14% 7.6% 2.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 3.9% 4.1% 4.5%

Estonia

L . . . . . 7.1% 1.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.4%

H . . . . . -4.4% 2.8% 4.9% 4.8% 5.0% 5.3% 4.5% 3.2%

B 3.9% 2.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -5.0% 0.9% 3.3% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 3.7% 2.1%

FYROM

L . . . . . -5.4% -0.7% 2.0% 2.7% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 1.0%

H . . . . . -4.1% 1.9% 4.5% 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 3.4% 2.2%

B -0.3% 6.3% -7.7% 0.6% 11% -4.4% 0.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.7% 1.9% 2.3% 1.1%

Finland

L . . . . . -4.7% -0.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 0.3%

H . . . . . 0.0% 1.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5%

B 6.0% -0.2% -7.3% -0.2% 6.2% -0.3% 0.4% 2.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.7%

France

L . . . . . -0.7% -0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.7%

H . . . . . 0.2% 7.7% 9.0% 7.9% 7.9% 11% 8.0% 7.4%

B 25% 0.0% -3.6% 22% 16% -0.3% 6.0% 7.4% 6.8% 6.7% 9.1% 7.2% 6.1%

Georgia

L . . . . . -0.7% 4.5% 6.2% 5.8% 5.5% 6.7% 5.9% 4.8%

H . . . . . -0.6% 1.6% 4.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 2.8%

B 4.6% 1.4% -7.0% 1.7% 3.2% -1.0% 0.3% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.4% 1.8%

Germany

L . . . . . -1.4% -1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6% 0.8%

H . . . . . -1.0% 2.6% 3.9% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 4.1% 3.2%

B 9.9% 3.4% -0.8% 2.6% 0.2% -1.4% 1.3% 2.4% 3.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 2.3%

Greece

L . . . . . -1.8% -0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 1.2%

H . . . . . -2.4% 1.1% 5.7% 5.3% 5.4% 6.3% 5.1% 3.7%

B 1.8% 1.1% -2.3% 2.4% -0.8% -2.8% -0.5% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.6% 4.0% 2.4%

Hungary

L . . . . . -3.2% -2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 1.3%

H . . . . . 12% 4.6% 5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.9%

B 7.5% 4.8% -7.8% 0.6% 9.0% 12% 3.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 4.7%

Iceland

L . . . . . 11% 1.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.7%

H . . . . . 0.7% 3.2% 5.1% 5.2% 5.6% 5.3% 5.5% 4.4%

B 5.8% 0.6% -12% -3.1% 1.9% 0.3% 1.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.4% 3.5% 2.7%

Ireland

L . . . . . 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 1.7%

H . . . . . -0.6% 1.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.0%

B 8.4% -2.4% -5.1% 3.9% 0.8% -0.9% 0.3% 2.7% 3.2% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.1%

Italy

L . . . . . -1.2% -1.1% 1.3% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.9% 1.0%

H . . . . . 0.7% 4.9% 7.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.3% 6.1% 5.5%

B 16% 11% -8.4% 4.0% 9.8% 0.3% 2.9% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.3% 4.3% 3.8%

Latvia

L . . . . . -0.2% 1.4% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1% 2.6%

H . . . . . -0.8% 0.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 2.7%

B 6.3% 2.7% -7.2% 5.6% 4.8% -1.2% -1.0% 0.7% 2.0% 3.2% 2.3% 2.5% 1.2%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . -1.6% -2.5% -0.8% 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 0.1%



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 2.1% 6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4%

B 15% 12% -12% 7.3% 13% 1.7% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 1.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7%

H . . . . . 21% 8.7% 5.5% 5.2% 5.4% 6.4% 5.6% 8.1%

B 8.1% 3.5% 0.7% 12% -15% 20% 6.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.9% 4.7% 4.2% 6.7%

Malta

L . . . . . 20% 5.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 5.6%

H . . . . . 8.4% 11% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.8% 7.0% 7.7%

B 25% 18% 6.7% 24% 11% 7.9% 8.7% 4.6% 5.3% 5.4% 5.8% 5.5% 6.2%

Moldova

L . . . . . 7.4% 7.2% 3.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 5.0%

H . . . . . -7.2% 2.6% 5.6% 5.8% 5.8% 5.2% 5.3% 3.2%

B 6.6% 2.5% -5.8% 8.6% 3.9% -7.6% 1.1% 3.6% 4.4% 4.6% 3.8% 4.0% 1.9%

Morocco

L . . . . . -7.9% -0.3% 2.2% 3.1% 3.4% 2.9% 3.0% 0.8%

H . . . . . 1.2% 2.5% 4.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4%

B 4.9% -1.6% -8.6% 1.7% 7.2% 0.9% 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2%

H . . . . . 4.9% 2.6% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1%

B 4.5% 2.6% -4.4% 2.2% 4.9% 4.7% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3%

Norway

L . . . . . 4.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4%

H . . . . . 6.5% 4.4% 6.4% 5.9% 5.8% 5.5% 5.5% 5.7%

B 13% 10% -7.6% 5.8% 9.4% 6.1% 2.6% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 4.0%

Poland

L . . . . . 5.7% 1.2% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8%

H . . . . . 2.5% 6.3% 6.8% 6.4% 6.6% 8.3% 6.6% 6.2%

B 4.0% 2.8% -2.3% 8.2% 3.8% 2.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 6.0% 5.0% 4.6%

Romania

L . . . . . 1.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3%

H . . . . . -0.9% 4.6% 5.1% 4.9% 5.4% 4.4% 4.7% 4.0%

B 1.6% 6.5% -2.6% 4.5% 4.3% -1.3% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 4.1% 3.2% 3.7% 2.8%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . -1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.0% 2.6% 1.6%

H . . . . . -2.2% 5.0% 5.3% 5.0% 5.2% 6.3% 4.8% 4.2%

B 16% 8.6% 3.3% 5.9% 2.7% -2.6% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 4.8% 4.0% 3.0%

Serbia&Montenegro

L . . . . . -3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.9% 1.9%

H . . . . . 3.4% 4.4% 5.8% 5.2% 5.3% 5.9% 5.0% 5.0%

B -1.6% 6.4% -2.4% 9.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 2.5% 1.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5%

H . . . . . 0.6% 4.5% 5.1% 4.7% 4.8% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2%

B 15% 6.8% -4.2% 4.8% 7.5% 0.2% 2.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0%

Slovenia

L . . . . . -0.3% 1.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9%

H . . . . . -4.1% 0.1% 3.2% 3.9% 4.1% 3.4% 3.7% 2.0%

B 8.4% -1.8% -9.5% 1.8% 3.6% -4.5% -1.8% 1.2% 2.7% 3.2% 2.4% 2.6% 0.8%

Spain

L . . . . . -4.8% -3.3% -0.4% 1.4% 2.0% 1.3% 1.6% -0.4%


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . 0.8% 2.3% 4.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1%

B 2.8% 3.9% -11% 1.5% 9.1% 0.4% 1.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.2%

Sweden

L . . . . . 0.1% -0.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.2%

H . . . . . 0.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7%

B 5.9% 0.3% -7.1% 0.7% 3.6% -0.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%

Switzerland

L . . . . . -0.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1%

H . . . . . 3.7% 4.6% 6.2% 5.9% 6.1% 13% 6.5% 6.6%

B 9.2% 8.6% 4.2% 13% 7.6% 3.3% 3.1% 5.9% 5.1% 5.3% 10% 6.3% 5.5%

Turkey

L . . . . . 2.9% 1.8% 5.1% 4.5% 4.4% 6.8% 5.1% 4.4%

H . . . . . 4.2% 6.0% 7.8% 7.0% 6.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.6%

B 8.2% 8.7% -6.9% 14% 5.5% 3.8% 4.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 3.4% 3.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2%

H . . . . . -1.0% 0.8% 3.8% 3.4% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% 2.3%

B 3.4% -1.4% -9.4% -4.3% 2.8% -1.3% -0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 1.5%

UK

L . . . . . -1.6% -1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 0.7%

H . . . . . -1.3% 1.6% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 3.6% 2.8%

B 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 0.7% 2.9% -1.6% 0.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9%

ESRA02

L . . . . . -2.0% -1.1% 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.9%

H . . . . . -1.6% 1.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 2.6%

B 5.7% 0.3% -7.2% 0.2% 2.6% -1.9% -0.1% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.6% 1.6%

EU27

L . . . . . -2.3% -1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 0.6%

H . . . . . -1.2% 1.4% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3% 3.7% 2.9%

B 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 0.8% 3.1% -1.5% 0.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1.9%

ESRA08

L . . . . . -1.8% -1.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9% 2.0% 0.9%

H . . . . . -1.3% 1.4% 4.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 2.7%

B 4.9% 0.4% -6.9% 0.2% 2.6% -1.6% -0.1% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.6%

SES

L . . . . . -1.9% -1.3% 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 0.7%

H . . . . . 6.8% 2.7% 6.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%

B 14% 11% -8.6% 5.5% 9.2% 6.4% 0.9% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9%

Baltic FAB

L . . . . . 6.0% -0.5% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7%

H . . . . . 1.0% 2.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.7%

B 8.9% -0.8% -3.8% 3.6% -0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 2.6%

BLUE MED FAB

L . . . . . 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5%

H . . . . . 3.4% 4.1% 6.3% 5.9% 6.1% 8.8% 6.1% 5.8%

B 8.8% 6.9% -0.4% 6.7% 3.3% 3.0% 2.4% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 6.4% 4.9% 4.3%

Danube FAB

L . . . . . 2.6% 1.0% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 4.3% 3.7% 3.1%

H . . . . . 0.0% 2.5% 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0% 4.3% 3.8%

B 7.4% 3.1% -5.2% 3.2% 2.7% -0.4% 0.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 2.6%

FAB CE

L . . . . . -0.8% -0.5% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5%



2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

AAGR 2018/ 2011

H . . . . . -0.4% 1.1% 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.4%

B 8.1% 0.5% -7.1% 0.5% 4.4% -0.8% -0.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6%

FABEC

L . . . . . -1.1% -1.5% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 1.5% 0.7%

H . . . . . 2.8% 2.5% 4.5% 3.8% 4.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%

B 4.9% 4.5% -6.6% 2.1% 7.0% 2.5% 1.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%

NEFAB

L . . . . . 2.2% 0.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5%

H . . . . . -4.6% -0.5% 3.2% 3.9% 4.2% 3.5% 3.7% 1.9%

B 10% -1.8% -9.4% 1.8% 3.3% -5.0% -2.4% 1.1% 2.6% 3.1% 2.3% 2.5% 0.6%

South West FAB

L . . . . . -5.3% -3.9% -0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1.2% 1.5% -0.6%

H . . . . . -1.0% 0.6% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 2.4%

B 3.5% -1.5% -9.5% -4.3% 2.5% -1.2% -0.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 1.5%

UK-Ireland FAB

L . . . . . -1.5% -1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 0.7%

H . . . . . -1.5% 1.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4%

B . 2.2% -9.7% 2.4% 5.7% -1.8% 0.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5%

DK-SE FAB

L . . . . . -2.1% -1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6%




ANNEX E. REFERENCES

Electronic versions of the present report and the reports reference hereafter are available from the STATFOR webpage: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor.

1 EUROCONTROL Two-Year Forecast, Flight Movements, 2012-2013, STATFOR

Doc463, May 2012. 2 STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (SID) available at

http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid 3 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units 2012-2017, STATFOR,

Doc478, September 2012. 4 EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics & Forecasts, STATFOR Doc87,

January 2005. 5 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast, Flight Movements 2012-2018,

STATFOR, Doc 455, February 2012.

http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid

EUROCONTROL

For further information, please contact: STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast [email protected]://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified

© 2012 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may

be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the

source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The infor-

mation in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from

EUROCONTROL.