eurex equity spreading tactics
TRANSCRIPT
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Name, place, date
Techniques and Methodologies for
Spread Trading Eurex Equity IndexFutures
April 2009
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Objectives
Presentation Focuses on Structure and Strategy
Create, Trade, and Manage Spreads with the DJ Euro Stoxx 5 and Dax !ndex"utures
!denti#$ and %nderstand the Metrics %ni&ue to !mplied Spread Trading
Strategies and Tactics #or Trading !mplied Spreads
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Name, place, date '
Objectives
Create, Trade, and Manage Spreadswith the DJ Euro Stoxx 5 and Dax!ndex "utures
(ene#its to Discretionar$ Traders (ac)ground o# products *DJ Euro Stoxx 5, Dax, ES+
Dual "actor and Multi"actor Spreads
-al) Through .rocess o# (uilding a Spread
Contract /atios
Charting o# Spread
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Identify and Understand the Structural Metrics
Unique to Implied Spread Trading
Dealing with Mishedges1.artial "ills1Doule "ills
!denti#$ing -or)3rounds #or Excessi4euoting1Messaging
Determining .a$up Tic)s
-or)ing 6ne 7eg or Multiple 7egs
Spread Trading So#tware
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Name, place, date 5
Strategies for Trading Spreads
3lpha 8enerating Strategies
Trade "actor 3nal$sis
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Name, place, date 9
ac!ground
John Netto
Chie# !n4estment Strategist, Net(lac) Capital, CT3
3uthor, :6ne Shot ; 6ne ill, 20+
.resident, M' Capital, 77C *!ntroducing (ro)erage "irm+
34id .o)er .la$er and Sports >andicapper
Spea) Japanese and Chinese
7i4e in N?C and 7as @egas
Nine ?ears in %S Marines
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Name, place, date A
"reate# Trade# and Manage Spreads
(ene#its #or a Discretionar$ Trader
-atch Mone$ "lows in Mar)et
8ain Sense o# /elati4e Strength
Trac) @olatilit$
!nsight to /is) 34ersion1/is) 3ppetite
(ene#it to Currenc$ Traders with Countr$ Speci#ic News
%pward Sloping ?ield Cur4e
-idening Contango or "lattening "orward Cur4e
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"reate# Trade# and Manage Spreads
B .resentation will #ocus on spreading Dax !ndex "utures *"D3+
' 8erman stoc)s
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 5 *"ES+
"rance *+, 8erman$ *'+, !tal$ *9+, Spain *9+,Netherlands *0+, (elgium *+, and "inland *+
(an)s, %tilities, Telco
S F . 5 "utures *ES+
-idel$ #ollowed %S E&uit$ enchmar)
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Name, place, date
Ticker Name% Weight in theIndex
Shares in theIndex
DAX DAX
ADS GY Equity Adidas AG 1.257489 11.87955
ALV GY Equity Allianz SE 7.719982 27.81189
BAS GY Equity BASF SE 5.843517 5.3838
BAY GY Equity Bay!" AG .844599 4.9218
B#$ GY Equity Bay!"is%&! #'t'"!n $!"(! AG 2.)48232 19.7341
BE* GY Equity B!i!"sd'"+ AG ).59985 5.))448
,B- GY Equity ,'!"z/an( AG ).8245) 4).7389
DA* GY Equity Dail!" AG 5.471115 53.71)3
DB- GY Equity D!uts%&! Ban( AG 5.493751 34.5))22
DB1 GY Equity D!uts%&! B'!"s! AG 2.358737 11.97)8
L0A GY Equity D!uts%&! Lu+t&ansa AG 1.)49882 28.11193
D$ GY Equity D!uts%&! 'st AG 1.934299 51.58235
DE GY Equity D!uts%&! !l!(' AG .83274 182.8181EA GY Equity E. AG 9.9)91 111.952)5
F#E GY Equity F"!s!nius #!di%al ,a"! AG ,' -GaA 1.3)8148 11.4994
F6E3 GY Equity F"!s!nius SE ).894 4.941
061 GY Equity 0ann'!" 6u!%(!"si%&!"un AG ).3743 3.8533
0E3 GY Equity 0!n(!l AG ,' -GaA ).83237 1).937)8
SDF GY Equity -S AG 1.32359 7.552
L* GY Equity Lind! AG 2.232391 1).34325
#A GY Equity #A AG 1.)1818 .3891
#6- GY Equity #!"%( -GaA 1.)3258 4.)5831#E GY Equity #!t"' AG ).777938 .79)7
#:V2 GY Equity #u!n%&!n!" 6u!%(!"si%&!"uns AG 4.7)2324 12.)3721
6$E GY Equity 6$E AG 5.57428 25.)1387
S;G GY Equity Salzitt!" AG ).51455 2.34341
SA GY Equity SA AG 5.78744 51.48)1
S*E GY Equity Si!!ns AG 9.2)534 5).)5453
-A GY Equity &yss!n-"u
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(ac)ground o# .roducts ; DJ Euro Stoxx Components
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(ac)ground o# .roducts ; DJ Euro Stoxx Components
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Overlapping Stoc!s et&een $a% and 'uro Sto%% ()
ALV GY Equity Allianz SE
BAS GY Equity BASF SE
BAY GY Equity Bay!" AG
DA* GY Equity Dail!" AG
DB- GY Equity D!uts%&! Ban( AG
DB1 GY Equity D!uts%&! B'!"s! AG
DE GY Equity D!uts%&! !l!(' AG
EA GY Equity E. AG
#:V2 GY Equity #u!n%&!n!" 6u!%(!"si%&!"uns AG
6$E GY Equity 6$E AG
SA GY Equity SA AG
S*E GY Equity Si!!ns AG
V$ GY Equity V'l(s=a!n AG
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"omponents of $* 'uro Sto%% () and $a% Inde%
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"reate# Trade# and Manage Spreads
Dual "actor and Multi"actor Spreads
Dual "actor Spread
Comprised o# two legs
7ong "ES 1 Short "D3
Multi"actor Spread
Comprised o# three or more legs
7ong ES, Short "ES and Short "D3
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Name, place, date 5
"reate# Trade# and Manage Spreads
-al) through process o# uilding a spread
!ndependent 7eg1Dependent 7eg
!denti#$ 7i&uid 7eg1illi&uid 7eg
E&ualiGe1NormaliGe the Spread
Determine Contract /atios
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Identifying the Independent+$ependent ,egs
!ndependent *.rimar$+ 7eg *"ES+
.rice o# implied spread is ased on this leg
-hen u$ing spread, going long this leg
-hen selling spread, going short this leg
Dependent *Secondar$+ 7eg *"D3+
-hen u$ing the spread, going short this leg
-hen selling the spread, going long this leg
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Identify illiquid+,iquid ,egs of Spread
B!ntermar)et spreads time o# da$ is )e$
"ollow pools o# li&uidit$ and 4olatilit$ around the gloe
' 3M Central Time, more li&uidit$ in Eurex
.M Central Time, more li&uidit$ in %S Exchanges
B!ntramar)et spreads *all Eurex products+ Should use more illi&uid leg to wor) order
EHgH "ES1"D3 ; "ES more li&uid leg 1 "D3 is illi&uid leg
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'quali-e or .ormali-e the Spread
B uanti#$ing the relationship etween two productsto create s$nthetic 4alue .roper normaliGation allows #or trader to accuratel$ assess the relati4e
strength etween the independent and dependant legsH
NormaliGation ratios are input into spread trading so#tware to chartrelationship
' l F'S0+F$10 S d
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'%ample / F'S0+F$10 Spread
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'%ample / FS'0+F$10 Spread
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"reate# Trade# and Manage Spreads
Chart o# Spread ; "ES"D3
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$* 'uro Sto%% ()# $a%# 'S# .2# TF' 3Mini 4ussell5
6 ,ast 7) "alendar 387 Trading5 $ays 6
9689 "ontract 4ange 3Point+Tic!s5 4ange 3"urrency5 4ange 3US $ollars5
Totals T"E 22 22 22
N 02 I0 I0
ES 2A '5 '5
"D3 'I '05 05I9
"ES A' A'' 5
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"reate# Trade# and Manage Spreads
Contract /atios
7ead 7eg ES "D3 "ES N
"D3 21A N13 21 15
ES N13 A12 A1 21'
"ES 1A 12 N13 519
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Name, place, date 2A
Structural Metrics Unique to Implied Spread Trading
Dealing with Doule "ills1Mishedges1.artial "ills
Doule "ills ; 3s a result o# changing orders 1t exchangeand trading so#tware, ris) o# multiple #ills and either short orlong position in mar)et ta)es place
>ow do doule #ills happen -or)ing oth legs in an attemptto maintain &ueue pre#erence
.remium placed on ser4er location, speed o# transmissions
Chec) message turnaround time
ExampleK -or)ing oth legs o# 7ong "ES1"D3 spread .ear simultaneous fills ta!e place of long : F'S0 and short 8 F$10
Spreading soft&are &ill send hedge orders of corresponding leg# in essenceselling 8 more F$10 and buying : more F'S0
The result can be long ;< F'S0# short 9 F$10 or some&here in bet&een
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Name, place, date
Mishedges+=ung ,egs
B -or)ing a spread and ha4ing one leg #illedand other leg un#illed
B ExampleK -or)ing long x A "ES1ES
spread Filled on long ;) of F'S0# &hile short > of 'S is still &or!ing =ang ris! larger for more volatile mar!ets or ne&s events
1ddresses issue of payup tic! logic
"ontract ratio logic per hang ris!
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Name, place, date
Partial Fills
.artial "ills ; -hile wor)ing a spread, onl$ part o# the leg is#illed lea4ing $ou 4ulnerale to s$stemic ris)
!# partial ta)es place in general mar)et trend, usuall$ more#lexile to let it wor)
!# partial ta)es place against trend, more aggressi4e to #latten
outB Example ; -or)ing a long x 2 "ES1"D3 spread and '
contract u$s on "ES leg are #illedH .ot enough to hedge out &ith ; big $a%# but still mar!et ris!
Solutions 1ccept the ris! and stay long
"lose position &ith 7 lot sell on F'S0
=edge out &ith 'S
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Name, place, date '
Structural Metrics Unique to Implied Spread Trading
!denti#$ing -or)3rounds #or Excessi4e uoting1Messaging
Excessi4e messaging can slow s$stem per#ormance1negati4el$ impactsmar)et participants1increases capacit$ re&uirements and costs
3 message ; an$ 6rder, Modi#ication, or Cancel #or a product
%nderstanding the @olume /atio
Di4iding total numer o# messages $ total executed 4olume
Notices and Surcharges
"irm is #ined L2, per occurrence as technolog$ surcharge and potentiall$more i# issue occurs consistentl$
.otential Solutions
Trader 3utoSpreader ; Smart uote 7imits C8 ; Nina Mode which wor)s orders later
"CM ; !# "CM *Class 3 #irm+ is doing lots o# 4olume it can help o##setexcessi4e messaging
/e#erenceK
Eurex Circular "eruar$ , 2 :3dustment o# the 3rchitecture Throttle=
httpK11wwwHcmegroupHcom1gloex1#iles1CMEMessaging.olic$Hpd#
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Structural Metrics Unique to Implied Spread
Trading
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Structural Metrics Unique to Implied Spread Trading
6 $etermining Payup Tic!s
-h$ are .a$up Tic)s So !mportant Executing strateg$ is pinned against #ills at implied prices
>igh 4olume game and slippage can signi#icantl$ detract #rome##icac$ o# strateg$
Spreads DonOt >appen in @acuum
Same d$namics which create opportunities create ostacles
Strategies ; Set Threshold #or max slippage #or each transaction
Set 7imit plus
Set Trailing plus
-or) mar)et on side o# direction $ou thin) mar)et is headed EHgHH !# wor)ing 7ong "ES"D3 spread and mar)et is rall$ing,
wor) long leg *"ES+ and use short leg with no pa$up tic)sH iHeHget hung long in rising mar)et, not hung short
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Name, place, date ''
Structural Metrics Unique to Implied Spread Trading
"actors in -or)ing 6ne 7eg or Multiple 7egs
7i&uidit$
Deeper mar)ets ma)e multiple leg &uoting potentiall$ moreene#icial as &ueue pre#erence materiall$ impactsper#ormance o# acti4e trading
@olatilit$
More 4olatile the mar)et, greater ris) #or mishedging
Messaging1uoting 7imits
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Name, place, date '0
ac!ground
.atric) S >emminger
>ead E&uit$ !ndex 1 Commodit$ Trader at NetCap 3d4isors
I $ears Experience Managing .roprietar$ .ort#olios
Experience trading
E&uit$ !ndexes
Commodities *6il, .roducts, 8rains, Meats+
Currencies *Spot, "utures+
Treasuries *"utures, Cash+
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1lpha ?enerating Spread Strategies
Eurex 4sH Eurex and NonEurex 4sH Eurex Spreads
"ES 4sH "D3
ES 4sH "D3
ES 4sH "ES
Trade "actor 3nal$sis .re ; Trade 3nal$sis
!denti#$ing 3reas o# @alue
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Name, place, date
Spread '%amples
F'S0 vs@ F$10
'9
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Name, place, date
'S vs@ F$10
'A
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'S vs@ F'S0
'I
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'S + F'S0 + $10 Fly
'
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Trade Factor 1nalysis
NormaliGing, wh$
Cohesion 1 relationship
/eplication
NormaliGation "actors
!nstrument Tic) @alue
!nstrument Notional @alue
!nstrument (ase Currenc$
!nstrument >istorical @olatilit$
9 Da$ ' Da$
0
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Name, place, date
Trade Factor 1nalysis
(enchmar)ing ES
8loal E&uit$ !ndex (enchmar), the Standard
.ro4ides #ocus
Manage Expectations 1 .er#ormance
Most 7i&uid
ES ; M3 P 2H5 MM per da$
"ES ; M3 P H5 MM per da$
Currenc$ Component
!nstrument (ase Currenc$
/esidual (alance Strateg$ ; !ntrada$ 1 End o# Da$ >edge w1 "uture
Exchange #or .h$sical *E".+
Spot Transaction
0
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Name, place, date
Pre6Trade 1nalysis 6 AISS
(eta uic) and Simple
8auging .rice "luctuations
-here is the /is) 1 @olatilit$ Time
(enchmar) /elationship etween Dependent F
!ndependent
7i&uidit$
02
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Pre6Trade 1nalysis
Time o# Da$ 3nal$sis
(e 3ware o# 6pen and Close Times
6rganiGe Da$
Time (rac)ets Separate (rac)ets
Time o# Da$ #or 6pportunities
.roailities
0'
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Pre6Trade 1nalysis
7ong Term Standard De4iation 3nal$sis
(ollinger (ands
Q1 P Momentum
Q12H5 Distance (etween (ands
Slope o# (ands
>istorical E##ecti4eness
Coast to Coast
00
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ollinger and '%ample
05
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Mar!et Profile
7ong Term Standard De4iation 3nal$sis
Time .rice 6pportunities
.oint o# Control
@alue 3rea >igh *@3>+ @alue 3rea 7ow *@37+
09
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Name, place, date
TechnicalBs
Trend lines
Doule Tops 1 (ottoms
"ionacci /etracements
Slow Stochastic Complimentar$ Mar)ets
Top Down 3pproach
0I
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Technicals
Trend lines + $ouble Tops + $ouble ottoms
0
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Name, place, date
TechnicalBs
Fibonacci 4etracements
5
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Name, place, date
TechnicalBs
Fibonacci 4etracements
5
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Name, place, date
TechnicalBs
Slo& Stochastic 3SStoch5
52
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Name, place, date
TechnicalBs
"omplimentary Mar!ets
5'
(e CogniGant o# Constituents
!denti#$ Sectors %nder 1 6ut .er#orming
-hat mar)ets are in the news
Currencies E%/%SD
8(.%SD
E%/J.?
(e aware o# Constituents in the Commodit$ !ndustr$
6il 8old
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Name, place, date
TechnicalBs
Top $o&n 1pproach
50
3nchor Charts
Dail$ 1 ' min 1 5 min
Trade on the side o# the mar)et
Contrarian positions Managing /is)
Ta)e a loser, 6pportunit$ Cost
Tape /ead 1 "eel
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Name, place, date
"ontact Information
B John Netto
B nettoRnetlac)capitalHcom
B 22'595
B wwwHoso)tradingHcom
B wwwHnetlac)capitalHcom
B wwwHm'capitalHcom
B Capital allocations, consulting, outi&uero)erage ser4ices, sellside 1 u$sidecon#erences, trader education
mailto:[email protected]://www.osoktrading.com/http://www.netblackcapital.com/http://www.m3capital.com/http://www.m3capital.com/http://www.netblackcapital.com/http://www.osoktrading.com/mailto:[email protected] -
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Name, place, date
"ontact Information
.atric) S >emminger
phemRnetcapHcom
9'HA2'H0A'
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Eurex 2
Deutsche (rse 38 *D(38+, Clearstream (an)ing 38 *Clearstream+, Eurex "ran)#urt 38, Eurex Clearing 38 *Eurex Clearing+ as well as Eurex (onds 8m> *Eurex (onds+ and Eurex /epo8m> *Eurex /epo+ are corporate entities and are registered under 8erman lawH Eurex UVrich 38 is a corporate entit$ and is registered under Swiss lawH Clearstream (an)ing SH3H is acorporate entit$ and is registered under 7uxemourg lawH %HSH Exchange >oldings, !ncH and !nternational Securities Exchange >oldings, !ncH *!SE+ are corporate entities and are registeredunder %HSH 3merican lawH Eurex "ran)#urt 38 *Eurex+ is the administrating and operating institution o# Eurex DeutschlandH Eurex Deutschland and Eurex UVrich 38 are in the #ollowing re#erredto as the :Eurex Exchanges=H
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This pulication is pulished #or in#ormation purposes onl$ and shall not constitute in4estment ad4ice respecti4el$ does not constitute an o##er, solicitation or recommendation to ac&uire ordispose o# an$ in4estment or to engage in an$ other transactionH This pulication is not intended #or solicitation purposes ut onl$ #or use as general in#ormationH 3ll descriptions, examples andcalculations contained in this pulication are #or illustrati4e purposes onl$H
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Eurex deri4ati4es *other than Dow Jones E%/6 ST6 5W !ndex "utures contracts, Dow Jones E%/6 ST6W Select Di4idend ' !ndex "utures contracts, Dow Jones ST6 5W !ndex
"utures contracts, Dow Jones ST6W 9 !ndex "utures contracts, Dow Jones ST6W 7arge1Mid1Small 2 !ndex "utures contracts, Dow Jones E%/6 ST6W (an)s "utures contracts,Dow Jones ST6W 9 (an)s1!ndustrial 8oods F Ser4ices1!nsurance1Media1.ersonal F >ousehold 8oods1Tra4el F 7eisure1%tilities "utures contracts, Dow Jones 8loal Titans 5 !ndexSM"utures contracts, D3W "utures contracts, MD3W "utures contracts, TecD3W "utures contracts, SM!MW "utures contracts, S7! Swiss 7eader !ndexW "utures contracts, /DxtW %SD ;/D Extended !ndex "utures contracts, Eurex in#lation deri4ati4es, Eurex commodit$ deri4ati4es, and Eurex interest rate deri4ati4es+ are currentl$ not a4ailale #or o##er, sale or trading in the%nited States or $ %nited States personsH
Trademar)s and Ser4ice Mar)s
(uxlW, D3W, Di4D3W, eHrexxW, EurexW, Eurex (ondsW, Eurex /epoW, Euro 8C .oolingW, Eurex Strateg$ -iGardSM, ET"W, "D3W, "-(W, MD3W, 6D3W, TecD3W, @D3W,@D3NE-W, etraW and T" Exchange Traded "undsW are registered trademar)s o# D(38H
The ser4ice mar) MSC! /ussia is the exclusi4e propert$ o# Morgan Stanle$ Capital !nternational, !ncH
/DxtW is a registered trademar) o# -iener (rse 38 *@ienna Stoc) Exchange+H
iTraxxW is a registered trademar) o# !nternational !ndex Compan$ 7imited *!!C+ and has een licensed #or the use $ EurexH !!C does not appro4e, endorse or recommend Eurex or iTraxxWEurope 5$ear !ndex "utures, iTraxxW Europe >i@ol 5$ear !ndex "utures and iTraxxW Europe Crosso4er 5$ear !ndex "uturesH
Eurex is solel$ responsile #or the creation o# the Eurex iTraxxW Credit "utures contracts, their trading and mar)et sur4eillanceH !SD3W neither sponsors nor endorses the productOs useH !SD3W
is a registered trademar) o# the !nternational Swaps and Deri4ati4es 3ssociation, !ncH!.DW %< 3nnual 3ll .ropert$ !ndex is a registered trademar) o# !n4estment .ropert$ Dataan) 7tdH *!.D and has een licensed #or the use $ Eurex #or deri4ati4esH
S7!W, SM!W, SM!MW, and @SM!W are registered trademar)s o# S! Swiss ExchangeH
ST6W, Dow Jones ST6W 9 !ndex, Dow Jones ST6W 7arge 2 !ndex, Dow Jones ST6W Mid 2 !ndex, Dow Jones ST6W Small 2 !ndex, Dow Jones ST6W TM! !ndex,@ST6W !ndex, Dow Jones E%/6 ST6 5W D@., Dow Jones E%/6 ST6W Select Di4idend ' !ndex, Dow Jones E%/6 ST6W1ST6W 9 Sector !ndexes as well as the DowJones E%/6 ST6 5W !ndex and Dow Jones ST6 5W !ndex are ser4ice mar)s o# ST6 7tdH and1or Dow Jones F Compan$, !ncH
Dow Jones, Dow Jones 8loal Titans 5 !ndexSM and Dow Jones Sector Titans !ndexesSM are ser4ice mar)s o# Dow Jones F Compan$, !ncH The deri4ati4es ased on these indexes are notsponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted $ ST6 7tdH or Dow Jones F Compan$, !ncH, and neither part$ ma)es an$ representation regarding the ad4isailit$ o# trading or o# in4esting in suchproductsH
The names o# other companies and third part$ products ma$ e trademar)s or ser4ice mar)s o# their respecti4e ownersH