eu€2020 targets - wind energy · import small€plants 0 5€000 10€000 15€000 20€000...
TRANSCRIPT
Tari G. 12 June 2009
EU 2020Targets:Managing
integration of wind inthe Hungarian grid
Tari Gábor
CEO
Wind Energy the Facts
Workshop, 12.06.2009
Tari G. 12 June 2009
2Contents
Hungarian Electric Power System –the facts
Generation mix
Consumption trends
Lack of flexibility
EU 2020 Targets –challenges
Feedin tariff for RES & CHP
Changes from 2010
Role of wind generation
Conditions for further wind integration
Conclusion
Tari G. 12 June 2009
3Electricity resources
big plants(>50 MW)
small plantsimport
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Gro
ss c
onsu
mpt
ion,
GW
h
Tari G. 12 June 2009
4Share of import
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11.
%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Tari G. 12 June 2009
5Hungarian generation mix
Composition of Generation Capacity*
21%
57%
7%
15%
nuclear regulated not regulated small pp
*on31.12.2008
Tari G. 12 June 2009
6Age of generation units
0
200
400600
8001000
1200
14001600
1800
<5 610 1115 1620 2125 2630 3135 3640 >41age group, year
nom
inal
cap
acity
, MW
>50 MW <50 MW
Average of big units: 23.9 years
10,1%
16,2%
4,4%
1,6%
16,7%19,2%
12,3%
10,7%
8,7%
Average of small units: 10.3 yearsOverall average: 22.1
years
Tari G. 12 June 2009
7Generation mix
Growing share of small (<50 MW) generatorsmainly supported RES and CHPnot flexible
Volatile import sharematter of economy
Large share of nuclearnot flexible
No hydro, no storageControllable units are old
inefficient, so losing market shareReserve capacity is limited and expensive
Tari G. 12 June 2009
8Development of net consumption
30
35
40
45
50
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1,5 %/a
0,5 %/a
TWh
Tari G. 12 June 2009
9Development of net consumption
0,0
500,0
1000,0
1500,0
2000,0
2500,0
3000,0
3500,0
4000,0
4500,0
I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. VIII. IX. X. XI. XII.
month
GWh
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Tari G. 12 June 2009
10Winter and summer peaks
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Year
MW
Winter Summer
Tari G. 12 June 2009
11Weekly maximum and minimum loads
y = 0,9524x + 3374,5
y = 1,8803x + 5438,6
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1 11 21 31 41 51 8 18 28 38 48 5 15 25 35 45 2 12 22 32 42 52 9 19 29 39 49 6 16 26 36 46 3 13 23 33 43 53
week
MW
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
100 MW/a
50 MW/a
dr. Stróbl Alajos
Tari G. 12 June 2009
12Consumption trends
Economic crisissudden decrease of demand (510%)much slower increase in the futurelarger share of domestic consumption, i.e.more volatility within the day
Equalizing summer and winter peakless freedom in maintenance scheduling
Need for more flexibilitymarket productsancillary services (reserves)
Tari G. 12 June 2009
13Lack of flexible reserve power
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
011
:00
12:0
013
:00
14:0
015
:00
16:0
017
:00
18:0
019
:00
20:0
021
:00
22:0
023
:00 Time
MW
Nuclear <50 MW Nonregulated Regulated Import Min Max Load Schedule
Tari G. 12 June 2009
14Lack of downward regulation on holiday
Tari G. 12 June 2009
15Insufficient secondary reserve offers
45 %14 %31 %2007
43 %17 %26 %2006
34 %28 %6 %2008
92 %88 %22 %2009/IV
39 %
Total
25 %
Regulation DOWN
14 %2005
Regulation UPYear
Tari G. 12 June 2009
16Lack of flexibility
Growing number of supported generatorsfeedin tariff is counterincentivizing for ASprovision
CHP is determined by heat demand, tooHigh import share
less controllable units are onlineLarge share of nuclear
reduction of production is limited, anduneconomic anyway
Conventional lignite and gas fired units are slowPumpstorage, fast hydro, and such are missing
Tari G. 12 June 2009
17EU 2020 Target –enduse energy
7,2%
8,7%
9,4%
10,3%
15,0%
16,0%
17,0%
17,8%
18,0%
20,5%
23,3%
28,5%
34,9%
39,8%
15%
20%
16%
23%
23%
25%
30%
24%
25%
31%
34%
38%
42%
49%
Poland
Spain
Bulgaria
France
Lithuania
Slovenia
Denmark
Romania
Estonia
Portugal
Austria
Finland
Latvia
Sweden
20202005
0,0%
0,9%
1,3%
2,2%
2,4%
2,9%
3,1%
4,3%
5,2%
5,8%
6,1%
6,7%
6,9%
10%
11%
15%
13%
14%
13%
16%
13%
17%
18%
13%
14%
18%
Malta
Luxemburg
UK
Belgium
Holland
Cyprus
Ireland
Hungary
Italy
Germany
Czech
Slovakia
Greece
20%
Tari G. 12 June 2009
18Renewable electricity
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Total
biomass
hydro
waste
wind
biogas
net electricity generation, GWh/a
2008200720062005200420032002
from gross electricity consumption
5,4%4,1%3,4%4,1%2,4%0,9%0,6%
Tari G. 12 June 2009
19Feedin tariff
Growing number of supported generatorsfeedin tariff is counterincentive for ASprovision
CHP is determined by heat demand, tooeven large CHPs and biomass cofiring largegenerators are included
High import shareless controllable units are online
Large share of nuclearreduction of production is limited, anduneconomic anyway
Conventional lignite and gas fired units are slowPumpstorage, fast hydro, and such are missing
Tari G. 12 June 2009
20Changes from 2010
Termination of licences for feedin tariffsmall CHPs (gas engines)old RES units
Reevaluation, possible prolongation by HEOPlanned tender for new wind generationlicencesOther types of RES
Goal is approximately 3 times moregeneration compared to current share (13%)
Tari G. 12 June 2009
21Role of wind generation
Reduction of need for fossil fueldecreasing import dependencedecreasing greenhouse gas emissionemployment, tax payment in rural places
If well managed and technically uptodate,then may help its integration in the grid and inthe markets
Tari G. 12 June 2009
22Conditions for further wind integration
Wind generation is hard to forecastlarge amount of data to be exchangedbetween generator and TSO
shorter timecycles are needed formanaging wind production
most uptodate technology must servestability and quality for the networks, towhich wind is connected
Network connection requires additionalinvestment –external costs
requirements set in grid codes must befulfilled
provision of ancillary services, virtual powerplants
Right for TSO to limit/terminate generation, ifnecessary
Tari G. 12 June 2009
23Conditions for further wind integration
Much more flexibility is needed in the powersystem
new, efficient, controllable large units shouldreplace old ones
electricity storage would be of greatimportance (e.g. pumpstorage)
more developed regional reserve marketsLiquid dayahead and intraday market (PX)
Harmonization between marketsenergyancillary servicesnational markets
Harmonization between markets and supportsystems
Tari G. 12 June 2009
24Conclusion
The Hungarian electric power system is far fromideal for wind integrationMAVIR is positive on supporting RES
already nearly 200 MW of wind generation isonline
new modification to the Grid Code intendsto ensure further development under clearconditions
evaluation of the experiences, andpreparation for new procedures is running
we are in continuous discussion with HEO,ministry and investors
Energy policy must set up clear priorities, andguarantee the necessary conditions (financial,technical and legal)
Tari G. 12 June 2009
25
Thank you for the good cooperation in the past,and MAVIR is open for further mutual
exchange and discussion of ideas with HWEA!
Thank you for your attention!