eu perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · dr. winfried hoffmann – ase president epia sma management...

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EU Perspectives on PV Markets & Industry Winfried Hoffmann (EPIA president) 3rd PV Rollout Conference Atlanta, February 26th, 2013

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Page 1: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

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EU Perspectives on

PV Markets & Industry

Winfried Hoffmann (EPIA president)

3rd PV Rollout Conference Atlanta, February 26th, 2013

Page 2: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

Applied Solar Expertise

Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA Member of the Supervisory Board of SMA Solar Technology AG Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Solar Fabrik AG Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and NEXT Member of Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz Email: [email protected]

Page 3: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

SMA – Energy that changes

Markets Market segments SMA Solar Technology AG

> Founded in 1981

> Sales in 2011: EUR 1,7 billion

> More than 5,500 employees worldwide

> Represented in 21 countries on 5 continents

> More than 20 GW total installed SMA capacity

Off-Grid Solutions

Residential <30 kW

Sunny Boy

Industrial >1 MW

Sunny Central

SMA, as market and technology leader for solar inverters and with comprehensive know-

how, will play a substantial role in energy transition

Annual production capacity in total > 11,5 GW

Worldwide presence in all relevant PV markets

Sunny Island Sunny Backup

Fuel Saver

Commercial <500 kW

Sunny Tripower

Energy Management

Sunny Home Manager

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4

Some words about EPIA

1. The European Photovoltaic Industry Association,

founded in 1985, today 150 members, 2/3 from Europe,

1/3 from Rest of the World, representing the whole

value chain

2. 20 EPIA team members, from more than 10 countries,

engaged in Policy, Communication & Marketing,

3 Working Groups

3. Lobbying for the interests of the PV industry

especially in Brussels, focused on the European

markets. THE voice of PV in Europe!!!

Page 5: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

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PV 2011: ~70 GW full power (~ 80,000,000 MWh) Corresponding to 53 full size 1,300MW nuclear reactors … and energy wise to the annual output of 9 such reactors

Average cumulative growth 44%

Average annual growth 57%

2012

>100 GW

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6 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

Annual Market Development in Europe

21.7 GW

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7 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

Photovoltaic Today in Europe PV Markets with Capacity Additions > 1GW

7,4

2,3 1,5

Germany Italy CzechRepublic

PV Markets with Capacity Additions > 1GW

9,3

7,5

2,2 1,9 1,7 1,3

Capacity Additions in Europe (GW)

28,3

13,4 9,9

5,7

Gas PV Wind Other

Capacity Additions in Europe (GW)

21,1

10,3 9,7 4,6

PV Wind Gas Other

Sources: EWEA, EPIA, EGP estimate

PV Share: 46%

RES Share: 73%

PV Share: 23%

RES Share: 46%

2010 2010

2011 2011

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8 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

Source: FhG-ISE

PV Market Segments in Germany

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Evolution of annual global PV market

• Decreasing importance of the European market in

relative terms, increasing importance of the

Chinese, US, Jp and other Sunbelt markets

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Evolution of annual global PV market

• Decreasing importance of the European market in

relative terms, increasing importance of the

Chinese, US, Jp and other Sunbelt markets

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Evolution of annual global PV market

Page 12: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

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12 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

2016 – Policy Driven Scenario – 24.85 MW

Page 13: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

Top 10 production companies 2000

13

Company % share MW shipped Company % share MW shipped

Kyocera (J) 15 42 Photowatt (F) 5 13

BP Solar (US) 15 42 Sanyo (J) 4 11

Sharp (J) 15 42 Isofoton (Spain) 3 8

Siemens Solar (Ger/US) 11 31 Mitsubishi (J) 2 6

Astro Power (US) 6 17 other 19 55

ASE (Ger/US) 5 13 total 100 280

4 Jp; 2 US; 2EU/US; 2 EU

Page 14: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

Top 10 production companies 2010

14

Company % share MW shipped

Company % share MW shipped

Suntech (China)

7.9 1572 Q-Cells (Germany)

4.5 907

JA Solar (China)

7.3 1464 Gintech (Taiwan)

4.2 827

First Solar (US)

7.1 1411 Sharp (Japan)

3.9 774

Yingli Solar (China)

5.3 1062 Canadian Solar (Canada/China)

2.9 588

Trina Solar (China)

5.3 1057 Others ~47 ~9,400

Motech Solar

(Taiwan)

4.6 924 Total 100 ~20,000

5 China; 2 Taiwan; 1 Jp; 1 US; 1 EU

Page 15: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

15

Market allocation versus regional

production of PV modules

Source: EPIA, Navigant Consulting (Paula Mints)

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.4 6.1 7.2 17.2 [GW]

%

%

%

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16 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

New EPIA scenarios for EU until 2020 and 2030

Baseline scenario:

based on pessimistic

or « moderate »

market evolution

Accelerated scenario:

Based on « policy-

driven » market

evolution

Paradigm shift

scenario: ambitious

policy shift could lead

to 25%

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17 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

Unlocking New PV Markets

EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt Study – 2010 - 2011

2016 Policy-driven

Turkey 0,75 GW

Mexico 1 GW

Brazil 1,5 GW

Chile 1 GW

Thailand 1 GW

Malaysia 0,5 GW

Israel 1 GW

S-A 2 GW

India 5 GW

China 10 GW

MENA 1 GW

Australia 2,5 GW

PV attractiveness is key…

But the country investment attractiveness as well !

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18 Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

Unlocking New PV Markets

EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt Study – 2010 - 2011

2016 Policy-driven

Turkey 0,75 GW

Mexico 1 GW

Brazil 1,5 GW

Chile 1 GW

Thailand 1 GW

Malaysia 0,5 GW

Israel 1 GW

S-A 2 GW

India 5 GW

China 10 GW

MENA 1 GW

Australia 2,5 GW

PV attractiveness is key…

But the country investment attractiveness as well !

…development of commercial markets like fuel

saver in existing and new built diesel gen sets,

communication and education centers in all rural

areas

Page 19: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

Competitiveness Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price

Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates, 1999

… the story of „Grid parity“

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20 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change

Competitiveness between PV Electricity Generation Cost and Electricity price

… only one „mistake“ in

1999:

• PV LCOE will decrease

quicker after 2010 due to

higher growth!

• Conventional electricity

prices will go quicker up!

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Development of Feed-in tariff for PV and electricity prices in Germany

Source: FhG-ISE, BMU

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PV system price evolution in Germany

Sopurce: FhG-ISE, BMU, BSW Solar

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Possible PV system price evolution (average)

Page 24: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

24

Marimekko graph for c-Si systems

Page 25: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

25

Photovoltaics & added value in Europe in 2010

EU content for module

& inverter ~ 55%

EU content for total

system ~ 70%

EU module manufacturing

plus export poly Si, wire,

paste, plastics, equipment

and much more …

Page 26: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

26

Source:

Photovoltaic –

Future Price Development … with “healthy” module prices …

0,1

1,0

10,0

1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06

MW accumulated

AS

P in $

/W

Case A – TF 20%

Case A – cSi 20%

PEC Scenario Case A: Baseline

TF share 15% const

TF PEF 20%

Case B:Paradigm Shift

TF share 15% → 35%

TF PEF 25%

0,1

1,0

10,0

1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06

MW accumulated

AS

P in $

/W

Case B – TF 25%

Case B – cSi 20%

c-Si Technology

price expectation in 2020

ca. 60 – 80 $ct/W

Thin Film Technology

price expectation in 2020

ca. 30 – 70 $ct/W

as of 2011/12

Page 27: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

27

Extrapolation from „Marimekko 2010“ to 2020

year 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0

C-Si efficiency 15% 15/20 = 0.75 20%

MM‘10

[%]

[$/W]

[$/W]

[%]

Module

60 1.68 PEC c-Si

0.70 47

Inverter 8 0.22 PEC 0.11 7

BOS

12 0.34 Eff. Factor 0.75 0.25 17

Installation

20 0.56 Eff. Factor 0.75 0.42 29

total 100 2.80 1.48 100

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28

From PV module to PV system

2010

8%

12%

20%

60%

PV modules PV inverter Balance of

system Installation

7% 17%

29%

47%

2020

Page 29: EU Perspectives on · 2017. 1. 12. · Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASE President EPIA SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA ... EPIA: Unlocking the PV Potential of Sunbelt

Source:

year

Annual installa-

tions [GW]

Modules [bn $]

Inverter [bn $]

BOS [bn $]

Installation

[bn $]

Total [bn $]

2010 22 37 5 8 12 62

2020 160 112 18 40 67 237

EPIA „SET for 2020“, own calculations

PV industry turnover with „paradigm shift scenario“

120601 29 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – Sisecam Glass Symposium

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30 Place, dd month yyyy. Go to slide master to change

High Level Group (HLG) working on

Key Enabling Technologies (KET)

3 commissioners

27 HLG members from EU member states, industry

representatives, R&D organizations and EIB

… assisted by many „sherpas“

3 commissioners:

Tajani (industry & enterprise)

Kroes (digital agenda)

Geoghegan-

Quinn (research & innovation)

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31

Valley of Death – EU focus in the past …

With consequences

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32

Valley of Death

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33

German Governmental Plan for the Future

Energy Mix (agreed 09/2010)

Ref: FhG-ISE, German Government data

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34

Summary

• There is still a long way to go to reach the

ambitious targets

• Price and cost reduction by technology

development induced by increased volume (PEC)

is of minor concern and will most probably work

• Regional industrial policy will determine where

most of the added value will occur

• Big challenge from incumbent energy industry

# is the increased opposition against decentralized

energy production

# investing now in traditional power stations which

will last for 40+ years

• Politics must assist to overcome this challenge

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www.epia.org

Gaëtan Masson, Head of Business Intelligence, [email protected]