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EU COP forecasts 2010/11
European Commission – Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural
DevelopmentAdvisory Group, Brussels, 24/09/2010
24 Sept 2010
2008 2009 2010 2010 % changeMio ha 24-Aug 16-Sep 2010/2009
Cereals 60.2 58.5 56.8 56.3 -3.8Oilseeds 10.2 10.8 11.1 11.0 1.7Protein Crops 0.81 1.01 1.18 1.21 19.4
TOTAL GRAINS 71.2 70.4 69.1 68.6 -2.6
EU 27 Land use (mio ha)
24 Sept 2010
CONTENT
• CEREALS figures
24 Sept 2010
EU 27 cereal area Total 09/10 : 58.5 mio ha
Total 10/11 : 56.3 mio ha
2009 2010 2010 % changeMio ha 24-Aug 16-Sep 2010/2009
TOTAL 58.5 56.8 56.3 -3.8
Soft wheat 22.9 22.9 23.0 0.5Durum wheat 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.6Barley 13.9 12.6 12.4 -11Maize 8.4 8.3 8.1 -3.5Rye 2.8 2.6 2.6 -8.2Oats 2.9 2.7 2.7 -8
24 Sept 2010
2009 2010 2010 %changeMio t 24-Aug 16-Sep 2010/2009
TOTAL 294.7 279.0 280.7 -4.8
Soft wheat 129.8 126.8 127.6 -1.7Durum wheat 8.7 8.5 8.3 -4.0Barley 62.0 53.4 54.4 -12.4Maize 57.8 55.3 58.2 0.6Rye 9.9 8.3 8.0 -19.4Oats 8.4 7.9 7.5 -11.0
EU 27 cereal production Total 09/10 : 294.7 mio t
Total 10/11 : 280.7 mio t (278 usable)
24 Sept 2010
EU - 27 difference vs 09/10 difference vs 5yrsav% %
TOTAL CEREALS Area mio ha 56.3 -3.0 -3.8Yield t/ha 5.0 -2.4 1.7
Production mio t 280.7 -5.3 -1.5Soft wheat Area mio ha 23.0 0.5 1.9
Yield t/ha 5.5 -2.2 0.8Production mio t 127.6 -1.7 2.2
Durum wheat Area mio ha 2.9 3.6 -7.3Yield t/ha 2.9 -7.3 -4.3Production mio t 8.3 -4.0 -10.3
Barley Area mio ha 12.4 -11.0 -10.9Yield t/ha 4.4 -1.5 4.3Production mio t 54.4 -12.4 -7.9
Maize Area mio ha 8.1 -3.5 -5.5Yield t/ha 7.2 4.2 6.9Production mio t 58.2 0.6 1.0
EU 27 Cereals production: comparison with 5y average
24 Sept 2010
10/11 comparison vs 09/10 productionfor main producing MS &
MS with significant differences
EU 27 cereal production 2010
Most important FR DE PL UK ES IT HU ROproducers -6.2% -10.9% -6.3% -3.2% 11.0% 1.4% -2.7% 16.6%Others DK CZ LT SK FI PT SE IRLdifference > 5% -12.2% -9.5% -13.6% -16.6% -28.0% -18.8% -8.5% 12.7%
24 Sept 2010
EU 27 cereal production 2010
EC JRC Stratégie TOEPFERMio t DG AGRI ISPRA Grain
16-Sep 20-Sep 16-Sep 23-Augusable
Total Cereals 278.0 285.9 274.8 273.9
Soft Wheat 126.6 128.6 127.2 125.7Barley 54.4 54.5 52.4 53.8Maize 58.2 58.3 56 55.4
24 Sept 2010
EU-27 Cereals balance sheet:Marketing year: 2009/2010Common (Mio t)
wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 27Beginning stocks (01.07.2009)
Market 22.2 13.2 1.2 17.1 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 58.2Intervention 0.1 0.9 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
Total 22.3 14.1 1.2 17.7 0.8 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 59.8Usable production 128.8 61.5 8.6 57.6 9.7 0.5 8.3 11.9 5.1 292.0Import (1) 3.1 0.1 2.2 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 154.2 75.7 12.0 77.7 10.5 1.2 9.9 12.9 5.7 359.8USE - Human 47.0 0.4 8.5 4.8 3.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 64.9 - Seed 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 9.8 - Industrial 9.9 8.9 0.1 7.2 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 28.3
of which alcohol 9.4o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 3.9 0.4 2.3 0.9 0.3 7.8
- Animal feed 56.0 42.3 0.6 47.5 3.9 0.6 6.4 10.4 4.6 172.3TOTAL USE 117.6 53.8 9.7 59.8 9.0 0.8 8.1 11.4 5.1 275.3Losses (excl on-farm) 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2Solde disponible 35.7 21.5 2.2 17.3 1.4 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.6 82.3Export (1) 20.4 3.6 1.1 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 27.4End stocks (30.06.2010)
Market 15.1 12.5 1.1 15.0 1.3 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.6 48.9Intervention buying-in 0.2 5.2 0.0 5.4Intervention sales 0.0 0.7 0.4 1.0 of which most deprived 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0Intervention end stocks 0.3 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
Total 15.3 17.9 1.1 15.2 1.3 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.6 54.9Change in stocks -7.0 3.8 -0.1 -2.5 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.2 -4.9Change in public stocks 0.2 4.6 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
(1) Grains equivalent (grain + groats and flour). Durum wheat: semolina included. Maize: processed products and animal feed included.
Jun-10
EU 27 Balance sheet
24 Sept 2010
EU 27 TRADEEU27 Cereals exports and imports by marketing year
included processed products in grain equivalent
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10
mio t
Export coarse grainsExport wheatImport coarse grainsImport wheat
Source: EUROSTAT - 08/2010 (some data missing for 06/2010)
Imports
Exports
WHEAT
COARSE
WC
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU wheat exporters and destinations
SOFT WHEAT incl. flour, groats, ... Main EU-27 Exporters and country of destination
2009-10 Marketing Year: 20,436 mio t
0
500.000
1.000.000
1.500.000
2.000.000
2.500.000
3.000.000
3.500.000
France 51% Germany 29% Latvia 3% Lithuania 3%
(tonnes)
Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Libya Saudi ArabiaYemen Iran Sudan U.A.Emirates Others
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU wheat exports destinations
EU Soft Wheat incl flour, groats, ... export destinations 2009-10 Marketing Year: 20,436 mio t
Israel1,2%
Others17%
Syria1,0% Algeria
17%
Mozambique1,3%
Egypt10%
Morocco7%
Sudan3%
Iran3%
Yemen4%
Saudi Arabia5%
Libya5%
South Africa6%
U.A.Emirates2%
Nigeria2%
Ivory Coast2%
Angola2%
Senegal2%
Norway1,7%
Congo R.Dem.1,6%
Cuba1,5%
Mauritania1,5%
Switzerland1,4%
Cameroon1,4%
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU wheat importers and origins
Soft Wheat incl flour, groats, ... Main EU27 Importers and country of origin
2009-10 Marketing year: 3,1 mio t
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
Spain 41% Italy 30% Utd, Kingdom 18% Greece 4%
(tonnes)
Ukraine Canada Russia USA Kazakhstan Australia Croatia Others
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU wheat imports originsSOFT WHEAT incl. flour, groats, … EU27 imports origins
2009-10 Marketing year: 3,1 mio t
Ukraine34%
Canada25%
Moldova0,8%
Australia6%
USA9%
Kazakhstan8%
Croatia5%
Others0,2%
Serbia0,7%
Syria0,7%
Russia10%
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU maize importers and origins
MAIZE incl. processed products Main EU27 Importers and country of origin
2009-10 Marketing year: 2,418 mio t
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
Spain 40% Portugal 16% Italy 9% Utd, Kingdom 8%
(Tonnes)
Serbia Ukraine Argentina Brazil Croatia USA OthersSource: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU maize imports originsMAIZE incl. processed products - EU27 Imports origins
2009-10 Marketing year: 2,418 mio t
Serbia37%
Ukraine29%
Turkey0,5%
USA1,9%
Brazil8%
Croatia8%
Moldova1,0%
Others1,7%
Chile0,4%
Argentina13%
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU barley exporters and destinations
BARLEY Main EU-27 Exporters and country of destination
2009-10 Marketing year: 1,131 mio t
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
France 62% Romania 14% Belgium 7%
(Tonnes)
China Saudi Arabia Morocco Brazil Switzerland Turkey Tunisia Vietnam Others
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU barley exports destinationsEU27 Barley export destinations 2009-10 Marketing year: 1,131 mio t
Morocco11%
Brazil7%
Switzerland6%
Turkey6%
Tunisia4%
Vietnam2%
Others4%
Syria1,0%
USA1,4%
Saudi Arabia21%
Chile2%
Croatia2%
Norway2%
China31%
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU malt exporters and destinations
MALT Main EU-27 Exporters and country of destination
2009-10 Marketing year: 1,909 mio t
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
Belgium 41% France 20% Germany 11% Utd, Kingdom 9%
(Tonnes)
Japan Brazil Venezuela Vietnam Nigeria Angola Switzerland Others
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
2009/10 trade: EU malt exports destinations
EU27 Malt export destinations 2009-10 Marketing year: 1,909 mio t
Japan12%
Russia2%
Congo (Dem. Rep.)2%
Thailand3%
Brazil12%
Norway2%
Ethiopia2%
Others30%
Tanzania2%
Cameroon4%
Switzerland4%
Angola4%
Nigeria5%
Vietnam5%
Venezuela11%
Source: Eurostat
24 Sept 2010
EU Commitments 2010/2011 (12 weeks)
• Imports: 2 mio t (2.3 mio t in 2009/10; 3.4 mio t 2-years ago)• 410 000 t soft wheat (963 000 t), • 585 000 t durum wheat (750 000 t),• 867 000 t maize (499 000 t), • 66 000 t sorghum (1 000 t)• 15 000 t barley (48 000 t)
• Exports: 7.2 mio t (5.2 mio t last year; 6.8 mio t 2 years ago)• 5.6 mio t soft wheat flour inclusive (4.7 mio t), • 1.3 mio t barley (281 000 t)• 136 000 t durum wheat (44 000 t)• 131 000 t maize (123 000 t)
• Net exporter: 5.3 mio t (2.9 one year ago)
24 Sept 2010
EU wheat exports in recent weeks
270
154
257312
261324
856
658
944
513 527
246
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1000
t
soft wheat 2010/11 soft wheat 2009/10 weekly average
Exports
24 Sept 2010
EU Wheat cumulated export commitments
0
4,000,000
8,000,000
12,000,000
16,000,000
20,000,000
t01/07/2009 - 30/06/2010 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 01/07/2010 - 21/09/2010
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY
MY 2010/11
MY 2009/10
WHEAT CUMULATED EXP
24 Sept 2010
EU Wheat cumulated import commitments
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
tSoft wheat 2010/11 Soft wheat 2009/10 average 5MY soft wheat Trimmed average soft wheat
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY
MY 2009/10
MY 2010/11
WHEAT CUMULATED IMP
24 Sept 2010
EU Barley cumulated export commitments
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
t01/07/2010 - 21/09/2010 01/07/2009 - 30/06/2010 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE
MY 2010/11
MY 2009/10
BARLEY CUMULATED EXP
24 Sept 2010
EU Maize cumulated import commitments
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
tMaize other than seed 2010/11 Maize other than seed 2009/10
Maize other than seed - Average 2004/05_2008/09 Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average 2004/05_2008/09
AVERAGE 5MY
TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY
MY 2010/11
MY 2009/10
MAIZE CUMULATED IMP
24 Sept 2010
EU-27 Cereals balance sheet:Marketing year: 2010/2011Common (Mio t)
wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 27Beginning stocks (01.07.2010)
Market 15.1 12.5 1.1 15.0 1.3 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.6 48.9Intervention 0.3 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
Total 15.3 17.9 1.1 15.2 1.3 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.6 54.9Usable production 126.6 53.9 8.2 58.0 7.8 0.4 7.4 10.4 5.4 278.0Import (1) 3.5 0.2 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.2TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 145.4 72.0 11.4 76.2 9.1 1.1 8.9 11.9 6.2 342.1USE - Human 47.1 0.4 8.5 4.8 3.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 65.1 - Seed 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 9.8 - Industrial 10.1 9.2 0.1 7.9 1.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 29.6
of which alcohol 10.7o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 4.1 0.7 3.0 0.9 0.4 9.1
- Animal feed 53.8 42.7 0.3 48.9 3.3 0.6 6.2 9.6 4.6 170.0TOTAL USE 115.8 54.5 9.5 61.9 8.4 0.8 7.9 10.7 5.1 274.5Losses (excl on-farm) 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2Solde disponible 28.7 17.2 1.8 13.6 0.6 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 65.4
Sep-10
EU 27 Balance sheet
24 Sept 2010
Week 10 of MY 2010/11 EU 27: 5 630 268 t
In tonnes 19/09/2010 Common wheat Barley Maize Sorghum Rye TotalBeginning stocks 273.319 5.493.109 214.630 0 0 5.981.058Quantities accepted 0 0 0 0 0 0Quantities sold 38.625 102.004 210.759 0 0 351.388Gross/balance 234.694 5.391.105 3.871 0 0 5.629.670Quantities under offer 125 473 0 0 - 598Of which quantities offered this week 0 0 0 0 - 0Total: Gross balance + quant. under offer 234.819 5.391.578 3.871 0 0 5.630.268Committed for free distribution 16 69.673 478 70.167Difference 234.803 5.321.905 3.393 0 5.560.101
24 Sept 2010
CONTENT
• CEREALS figures
• OILSEEDS&PROTEIN CROPS figures
24 Sept 2010
EU27 Oilseed area10.8 11.0
6.5 6.9
3.9 3.7
0.3 0.4 0.08 0.090
2
4
6
8
10
12M
illio
n he
ctar
es
OilseedsTotal
Oilseedrape
Sunflowerseed
Soybeans Linseed
2009/2010 2010/2011 e
Estimated 2% increase in EU27 oilseed area in 2010/2011
24 Sept 2010
EU27 protein crop area
10101206
503637
430 486
77 82
0200400600800
100012001400
Thou
sand
hec
tare
s
Totalproteincrops
Field peas Broadbeans
Lupins
2009/2010 2010/2011 e
Estimated 19.4% increase in EU27 protein crop area in 2010/2011
24 Sept 2010
EU 27 Oilseed & protein crop production
2009 2010 2010 %changeMio t 23-Jun 16-Sep 2010/2009
TOTAL OILSEEDS 29.2 29.0 28.4 -2.5
Oilseed rape 21.5 21.2 20.6 -4.1Sunflower 6.7 6.8 6.8 0.7Soybeans 0.8 0.9 0.9 11.7Linseed 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.0
TOTAL PROTEIN CROPS 2.8 3.1 3.5 24.6Field peas 1.3 1.6 1.9 49.5Field beans 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.6Lupines 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.9Sources : DG AGRI
24 Sept 2010
Oilseed rape / Wheat ratio
24 Sept 2010
World soybean balance257.27260.71
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 (F)
Mn
T
Ending stock
Use
Production
Opening stock
24 Sept 2010
EU27 soya balance
Import (meal equivalent)
30.829.3
EU27 Production (meal equivalent)
29.731.0
CONSUMPTION
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 e 2010/11f
Mill
ion
tonn
es
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