prognosfruit 2007 - lithuania overview and comments on eu-25 pipfruit crop forecasts dr. wilhelm...
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Overview and Comments onEU-25 pipfruit crop forecasts
Dr. Wilhelm Ellinger
ZMP, Bonn
2
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Prognosfruit forecast‘s quality evaluation
apples
2006
forecast
1000 t
Final
1000 t
Δ
1000 t
Δ
%
OM (11) 6.607 6.651 + 44 + 1
NM (8) 2.978 3.112 + 134 + 4
Total 9.585 9.763 + 178 + 2
Quality of forecasts seem to be ok However, several countries (8) took forecasts for final Were these really 100% precise???
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
What was expected one year ago, what happened at the market?
Lowest crop for a long time
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
million tons
s
NM
OM
0,4 mln t less in OMS
4
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Moderate carryover of old European crop
• In 2006 stocks in 6 countries by 78.000 t (27%) lower than in 2005
• Taking into account missing countries minus might have been 100.000 t at least
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2003 2004 2005 2006
Stocks July 1 (EU (6), 1000 t)
5
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
… in spite of ample late S.H. supply
• Though total imports from S.H. were lowest for years (702.000 t vs. 820.000 t in 2005) imports from July on (surprisingly) exceeded 2005 (mainly South Africa, Chile)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2004 2005 2006
Imports from S.H. July and later (1000 t)
Source: Eurostat
6
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
…provides for a good start
• Total supply from old crop (EU, S.H.) from July on at least 50.000 t, probably nearer to 100.000 t lower than in 2005
• Picking about 1 week delayed
• Prices until wk 36 more than 50% above 2005, but lower than in 2004
0
100
200
300
400
500
2003 2004 2005 2006
EU(6) stocks 1.7. Imp. S.H. July+
7
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Concerns: good crops in backgardens
• Households operating backgardens were more self-sufficient in autumn 2006
• Not the only reason for weak demand: consumer prices increased (+2% vs. 04, +13% vs. 05)
vs. ´04 - 5% - 5%vs. ´05 - 29% - 6%
Hobby gardeners
Apple buyings Sep/Nov (Germany)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006
kg
/HH
Hobby gardeners hh without backyard
8
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Concerns: how much will higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. France)
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Concerns: how much will higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. Germany)
0,8
0,9
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
'04/05
'05/06
'06/07
10
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Indeed, consumer react (Ex. France)
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Indeed, consumer react (Ex. Germany)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aug Okt Dez Feb Apr Jun
Apple buyings (1.000 t)
'04/05
'05/06
'06/07
Aug/June-4% vs. 04/05
-- 9 % vs. 05/06
12
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
%
EU average
Consumption 2006/07 falls to lowest level for years*
*) Latest available 12 month/52 wks househould panel data
13
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Rather different reactions on price increase
Country Period 2006/07 vs. 05/06%)
price volume ratio
DE Aug-Jun + 10,2 - 9,1 -0,89
AT May-April + 19,1 - 16,8 - 0,88
FR Aug-Jun + 12,3 - 8,3 - 0,67
UK 52 w/e jun17 + 10,7 - 3,8 - 0,36
NL 52 w/e jun17 + 14,9 - 3,9 - 0,26
IT Aug-Apr + 3,0 - 0,6 - 0,20
ES Aug-May + 15,0 + 1,2 + 0,08
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Concerns: higher imports might compensate for lower crop
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1.0
00 t
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s
Table apple imports EU-15 from extra EU-15
+ 70.000 t
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Concerns: EU exports might suffer
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1.0
00 t
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s
EU-15 table apple exports to Extra EU-15- 90.000 t
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
However, increase in trade deficit remained limited in EU-15
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
1.0
00 t
1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Balance even improved for EU-25
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1.0
00 t
2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s
Imports
Exports
Balance
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Unsatiable Russian market
apple imports
Season
(July/June)Sep-Mar
(1000 t) 04/05 05/06 04/05 05/06 06/07 %
World 758 715 409 429 537 + 25
EU-15 95 176 59 117 110 - 7
NMS 197 148 116 80 182 + 126
CIS 227 162 155 128 104 - 19
other 239 229 79 103 141 + 37
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Decrease in consumption inevitable (EU-15)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1.0
00 t
Import surplus
Production (withdrawals excl.)
Remark: Consumption incl. processing!
Consumption according to- Supply balance sheet -3,3%- panel data -4,7%
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example weekly prices Germany)
Sales prices P.O. Lower Elbe / Lake of Constance table apples, class I
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
wk 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32
2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04
Euro/100kg
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example seasonal prices Germany)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Euro/100kg
nom
real
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Golden Delicious, prix d'expedition av. SE/SW/Loire(layer 75-80mm)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
wk 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
2006/07 2005/06 2004/05
Euro/100kg
Source: SNM, adapted by ZMP
Prices in S. Europe increased even more(ex.: France)
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Prices in S. Europe increased even more(ex.: season av. producer price South of Tyrol)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Eu
ro/1
00 k
g
24
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Forecasts 2007
Hopefully more than to read tea
leaves!
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Year of extreme weather (I): warm winter/spring induce early blossoming
Date of full blossoming Bavendorf(Elstar)
110
115
120
125
130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Day
s fr
om
Jan
1 o
n..
.April 21
May 7
26
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
3 frost waves cause much damage in parts of Central Europe
• April 6 (PL, CZ, SK, parts E/S Germany), apples not yet very susceptible
• April 20-22 (PL, CZ, SK, E Germany, HU, Niederösterreich)
• April 30-May 2 (PL, CZ, SK, HU, Niederösterreich)
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
April 6, min temperature at bottom
Mostly green tip stage,critical below -7°C
Quelle: wetteronline.de
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
April 22, min temperature at bottom
PL: pears in full blossoming,apples start blossoming, damage in CZ, SK and NE Hungary, too
Quelle: wetteronline.de
29
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
May 2, min temperature at bottom
Cold spell penetrates PL,CZ, SK, N Hungary
Quelle: wetteronline.de
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
The effects of the frost
1. Crop losses between30 and 70% in NMS (look at the tables in the proceedings)2. Deformations andskin defects => pro-cessing quality
Source: Szabo
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
No rain during blossoming period
Mostly positive:No scab!But low humidityimpacted pollinationand favoured russetting (Golden)
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Heatwave SE Europe in July
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Fireblight is expanding
CH most affected,but also several Austrian states, Lake of Constance region, South of Baden, Rhone valley (FR), Slovakia, Gerona (ES)Minor impact on current crop than on medium term Source: ACW
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Lowest apple crop since ? years
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005v
2006
2007f
1.0
00 t
EU-15
NMS-10
PL 1990 812.000 t HU lowest since more than 40 y LT since 2004CZ since 1998 SK lowest since state was founded
35
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Austria: bumper crop
• Strong fruit set, favourable development of growth (+1/+2 mm)
• Good internal quality, high Brix
• Few russetting (ex. Elstar)
• Hail in north of Styria, but major damage prevented by nets
• Fireblight widespread• Picking 2 weeks earlier
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Belgium (I): normal crop
• Av. yield equals 2006 (> Golden, < Boskoop, Elstar)
• Decrease in area continues (-150 ha), mainly Jonagold
• Producers step gently in new varieties (mainly Kanzi, Belgica, few Rubens, Junami, Pinova; stopped planting Greenstar )
37
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Belgium (II): good size, much hail
• Fruit size much bigger now, but also at harvest time > 2006 expected
• Picking starts 2 weeks earlier
• Few russetting and scab, but more mildew
• Hail damage above average
• Global warming → increasing problems with woolly aphid and codling moth
38
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
France: Prévision de récolte à fin Juillet 2007
Nord27 000 T+ 23%
Val de Loire422 427 T
- 1%
TOTAL FRANCE1 613 000 T
+ 2 %
Sud Ouest468 750 T
- 3%
Sud Est484 000 T
+ 4%
TOTAL FRANCE1 613 000 T
+ 2 %
Nord27 000 T+ 23%
Val de Loire422 000 T
+- 1%
Sud Ouest469 000 T
- 3%
Sud Est484 000 T
+ 4%
39
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
France in detail• Decrease of areage levels out:
2007:06 -2% after -10% 2006:05• Ample blossoming and fruit set (ex. Red
Delicious), much thinning needed• On average, normal yields• Good sizes• Average hail damage, mainly Lot-et-Garonne,
Vaucluse (after nearly no hail 2006)• Picking in the North 10-15 days earlier, normal in
the South• Stocks on July 1, 2007 -21% vs. 2006
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
en Tonnes
Récolte française : Destinations
2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007Prévision 2007/2008
Récolte 1 728 000 1 708 000 1 769 000 1 584 000 1 613 000Marché de frais
- dont France 850 000 848 000 879 000 780 000 770 000
- dont Export 608 000 610 000 620 000 604 000 600 000
Hors frais 270 000 250 000 270 000 200 000 243 000
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
par variété en Tonnes
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Golden Gala Granny Braeburn
Rouges Fuji Pink Lady
42
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
DE: crop forecasts in the main growing regions
1. Niederelbe 304.000 t
+ 1% vs. 2006
+ 15% vs. Ø 2003-2006
2. Bodensee 281.000 t
+ 25% vs. 2006
+ 26% vs. Ø 2003-2006
3. Sachsen 86.000 t
3% vs. 2006
5% vs. Ø 2003-2006
1
2
3
300
250
100
capacity DE: 1,0 million tons
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PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Germany in detail
• Lower crops of old varieties (Cox Orange, Idared, Gloster) due to uprooting
• All-time record expected for Elstar, Braeburn, Gala, Pinova
• No scab, few russetting• Fruit size to date in advance, at picking date expected to
be normal (in Lake of Constance smaller than 2006 due to heavy fruit set)
• Hail above average (similar as 2006)• Start picking 2 weeks earlier (the 1st ‚Klarapfel‘ ripe for
picking reported June 26!), cold nights at the end of July good for colour
45
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Others 38%
Alto Adige
42%Trentin
o
20%
(1.000 t) 2007 vs. 06 (%)Alto Adige 857 - 7Trentino 417 + 15Rest of Italy 769 + 9Total 2.043 + 3
46
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Italy in detail (I)• South of Tyrol
– Fruit set in the hills better than in the valleys, light set Cripps Pink
– Quality very good, however sunburn in the last decade of July (especially Gala)
– Golden russetting in Etsch valley widespread– Av. sizes similar as in 2006 expected (more medium
sized, less under/oversized)– More hail damage than in 2006 (2006 3.500 ha
affected)– Picking 8-10 days earlier (Gala Aug 6, young orchards
Aug 1-2), colour (depending on clone) might be a problem
47
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Italy in detail (II)
• Trentino– Very good crop (volume and quality) in Valle di Non– Hail damage in Valle di Non neglectible, but
considerable damage south of Trento– Storage capacity in Valle di Non might be short
• Po valley– Problem of water seemed resolved by end of June,
but again on the agenda due to heat and drought in July
– Hail in all main growing areas
48
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NL: high yields
• Decrease in acreage 2%– Smaller acreage of all traditional varieties (e.g. Jonagold -9%)– Strong increase of new varieties (Kanzi, Junami, Rubens)
• Good weather conditions during blossoming and cell division period
• Good fruit set Jonagold, Elstar, Golden, biennial bearing Boskoop („off-year“)
• Larger sizes at picking date expected• A lot of hail in Zealand, Noordoostpolder, Goes region
(nearly 1.000 ha affected)• Picking 2 weeks earlier
49
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
PT: lowest crop since 1998
• At beginning of blossoming good weather conditions, later on frequent rains and strong winds
• Below average fruit set
• High incidence of fungal infections
50
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Spain – 2007 ought to be „on year“ in biennial bearing cycle, but isn‘t in Catalonia
304.000 t - 7% / 2006-15%/ 03-06
160.000 t+40% / 2006+ 6% / 03-06
Total 570.000 t+ 4%/2006-21%/2003-06
Source: CCAE
Contrary to CCAEMAPA expects -9%for Spain, -10% forAragon!
51
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
In fact, two below average crops in a row
• Catalonia– Acreage reduced (-4%), „plan de reconversion“,
uprooting Red >Gala >Fuji– Frost damage March 22-23– Cold, rainy weather during/after blossoming– Very low yield Red Delicious (12 t/ha)– „On-year“ for Fuji
• Hail in May (about 700 ha in Lerida, Aragon)
52
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
UK: acreage stabilized and modernized
• Acreage hit rock bottom 2003-05, last 3 years considerable planting of Braeburn, Gala, Jazz, Kanzi, Cameo, also replanting of trad. varieties
• Ideal blossoming conditions, very good fruit set• Much hail, about 10% of the crop
damaged/destroyed• Much optimism in the industry
– Consumers/supermarkets ask for locally produced apples („foodmiles“/climate change discussion)
– Increased demand for juice/cider apples (success of new premium drink „cider over ice“)
53
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
CZ: lowest crop since 1995
• Buds/blossoms damaged by 3 frost spells with min temp of -7°C each (April 6 & 21, May 1)
• A lot of fruits not suited for fresh market• Imports table apples will increase (normal 60.-
70.000 t)• Backgarden crop likewise damaged: decrease
from 105.000 t to 65.000 t (mainly processing (2006 40.000 t) and exports for processing (2006 57.000 t affected)
54
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
HU (I): frost damage as in 2007 once a century
• 1st cold spell April 20-22
• Lowest temp in Northeast
• Data don‘t show the real threat as measured at 2 m hight and within towns
55
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
HU (II): frost damage as in 2007 once a century
• 2nd cold spell May 1-3, much more damage than during the 1st one
• Freezing temp. for 6 resp. 8 hours
• Lowest temp. in valleys of Szatmar region -8/-9°C
• Fruitlets and leaves got lack
56
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
HU (III): frost damaged region the most important as regards apples
• Szabolcs-Szatmat-Bereg losses 80%, remaining for processing only
• Transdanubia plains losses 50-60%
• W/SW-Hungary no frost damage, but losses by sunburn up to 10%
• Big sizes, risk of physiological problems
57
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
HU (IV): supply for processing and fresh market likewise tight• Average processing
share 75% due to dominating old Jonathan orchards in Northeast
• 2007 only about 60% for processing expected in spite of quality defects (frost, sunburn), how that?
• Regions targeting fresh market will contribute a higher proportion to the national crop
420 432 430357 375
119
107 118238
110 105
84
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
for processing sold as fresh
Source: Dr. E.Kallay
58
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
PL(I): Smallest crop since 1990
• 1st cold spell April 22-24, min temp -4/-6°C at bottom in fruit growing regions
• 2nd cold spell April 30-May 2 -9°C (ground)/ -5°C (2m) Grojec region, others -5°C (gr.)/ -3 to -4°C (2m)
• 145.000 of 170.000 ha apple orchards affected• Forecast Prof.Makosz 1,2 mln t (GUS even 0,9 to
1,1 mln t)• Last comparable frost years: 1990 (812.000 t) and
1987• Sufficient water, good growth conditions, big sizes
59
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
PL (II): Effects on processing volume
• Forecasts 500.-600.000 t• Juice apple imports from
Moldavia• Processing of minor
quality (e.g. small thinned apples)
• Less exports, more imports of ajc
• Great impact on world ajc market
• Juice apple prices will skyrocket
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1.0
00 t
for processing
60
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
PL(III): effects on trade
• Exports will decrease more (in %) than production
• Major imports for the first time (much depends on consumer reaction upon higher prices)
• Opportunity for EU-15 to replace Polish apples in Russia (directly or via PL)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1.0
00 tt
exports imports
?
61
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Slovenia: normal crop
• Blossoming more than two weeks in advance• Good fruit growth until end of June (size T-
stadium 2-3 mm above av.), slowing down due to heat in July
• Less hail than in previous years• About 25% for processing (half of it due to hail
damage)• Picking Gala/Elstar will start Aug 5-10 in
Central/South Slovenia (colour still lacking)
62
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Boom organic apples slowed down
• Two-digit increase in organic fresh fruit buyings - moderate increase apple buyings
• Background: general decrease in apple buyings last season
• Tight supply organic spring/summer 2006
• Influence backgarden crop
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000t
Organic apple buyings DE&AT
volume
value
63
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Bigger organic apple crop 2007
– About 70.000 t in „Central Europe“ (considerably more „conversion“, less „full organic“ than in 2006)
– more than in 2006: Lake of Constance Region, South of Tyrol, NL
– less than in 2006: Austria, France– Higher proportion Golden, Elstar, less Topaz
64
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Conclusions apple market
• Extremely strong demand for juice apples expected as ajc stocks sold out and supply processing apples much lower
• High prices of juice apples will give an incentive to divert minor qualities to processing
• Shortage in NMS provides opportunity (for EU-15) to export more to NMS and Russia
• Competition from non-EU countries? lecture Mr.Peres• High probability that season average table apple prices
will increase further
65
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
66
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Review pears 2006/07
• EU-15 crop underestimated (forecast 2,44 mln, final 2,56 mln t) biggest crop for years
• Disappointing quality (small sizes, rough skin …)• Consequently disappointing domestic consumption (-4%
in 7 OMS, hh panel data)• Pressure to expand exports (257.000 => 317.000 t)• Bad quality opened door for increased S.H. imports
(Extra-EU15 imp 311.000 => 340.000 t)• Low prices• Limits of growth or only a question of quality?
67
PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA
Hope for better season 2007/08
• Production slightly below average
• Generally lower fruit set and better sizes
• „off-year“ in Southern Europe
• Production capacity in B/NL continues to grow