Post-2000 emigration from Poland and the Baltics

Mihails Hazans University of Latvia and IZA (Bonn)

"How to Improve Intra-European Mobility and Circular Migration?

Fostering Diaspora Engagement" Riga, Latvia, 11-12 May 2015

“The emigrant communities of Latvia: National identity, transnational relations, and diaspora politics” - research project financed by European Social Fund. Project No. 2013/0055/1DP/1.1.1.2.0/13/APIA/VIAA/040

Consumer confidence indicator in Poland and the Baltics, 2007-2013

Figure 4. Natural decrease of population and net emigration. The Baltic countries and Poland, 2000-2012

Change in the size of selected cohorts. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, 2003-2012 (in % of population on January 1, 2003)

Gross emigration of nationals from Poland and the Baltic countries to main EU and OECD destinations, 2008-2013

Stock of emigrants (expatriates) from Poland and the Baltic countries in EU-28 and EFTA countries, 01.01.2004-01.01.2013

Skill composition and selectivity of Baltic and Polish emigrants

Skill composition and selectivity of Baltic migrant workers reported as household members in the home country, 2000-2013

Emigration intentions in the Baltic countries, 2009-2013

2009 2010 2010 2013 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2012 2011(a) (b) (a) (c) (a) (d) (e) (f)

Estonia Lithuania Latvia-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Permanently Temporarily Duration unknown with concrete plans/steps

without concrete plans without preconditions with some preconditions

The demographic prospects• Emigration from the Baltic countries reached levels that

threaten reproduction of their populations, sustainability of social security systems and economic development. The demographic risk is most pronounced in Latvia

• In Poland, net emigration was smaller (especially during the crisis and post-crisis years) and (due to lower mortality) was not substantially reinforced by natural decrease.

• However, sizable negative net migration combined with shrinking youth and middle-age cohorts and almost negligible natural increase of population suggests that also in Poland demographic perspectives are far from bright.

The demographic prospects

• Both Baltic and Polish females abroad demonstrate higher fertility than their peers back home.

• in England and Wales alone, the number of births delivered in 2011 by females born in Latvia and Lithuania accounted for about 12% of the number of live births in the sending countries in that year;

• corresponding indicator for Poland is smaller (5.3%) yet disturbing enough

Thank you for attention!