ethiopia: the r ise of african sleeping...
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ETHIOPIA: THE R ISE OF AFRICAN SLEEPING GIANT
By Wuhibegezer Ferede and Dereje T/Mariam
Jan. 2014
Mekelle, Ethiopia
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DISCLAIMER
This text represents part of the authors’ study at Mekelle University. The views stated here in are
those of the authors and not necessarily of the University. The book is not allowed to be available
for circulation outside the University without informed consent from the authors.
INQUIRY ADDRESS
Wuhibegezer Ferede/Dereje Teklemariam
Mekelle University, Ethiopia
E-mail: [email protected]/[email protected]
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Our heartfelt gratitude goes to the determined leaders who dared to reverse the course of the
subservient history of Ethiopia over the Nile that predates the BCs. Moreover, we would like to
forward our sincerest gratitude to all peoples and institutions that are dreaming & drawing hardly
any pessimistic cartoons about the future fate of Ethiopia either on the sheets of their documents
or in the unveiled walls of their mind.
Blessed are those who are burdened with the hard slog of effacing the country’s chronic problems
so that Ethiopia could assume a rising position back to its glorious past!! We owe them heartfelt
gratitude.
We are also indebted to our Late Premier Meles, the luminous star who dazzled over every
historical burden and set in motion the engine of change that could uplift the country back to its
glorious past. We wonder his determination in letting the indicating star in motion towards
prosperity through an all-out onslaught on poverty by breaking chain of structural failure that has
kept us in bondage of suffering for ages.
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ACRONYMS
BMC: Billion Meter Cube
CIDA: Canada International Development Agent
EOTC: Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahido Church
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
HOA: Horn of Africa
HYDROMET: Hydro Meteorological Survey of the Equatorial Lakes
ILA: International Law Association
MDG: Millennium Development Goal
NILE COME: Nile Council of Ministers
PJTC: Permanent joint Technical Committee
SAP: The Subsidiary Action Program
SVP: The Shared Vision Program
UN: United Nations
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Contents Page
o Disclaimer……………………………………………………….……………………….………
o Acknowledgment………………………………………………………………….……………..
o Acronyms…….………….…………….………………………………..……..…..……….……
o Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………………. .
o List of tables and Charts….………….…………….………………………………..….………. .
o Illustrations. ….………….…………….………………………………..…..…..……….………
o Preface….………….…………….………………………………..…..…..……….…………….
CHAPTER-ONE
1. INTRODUCTION………………..………..…………….…….………………….…….…………………
1.1. Historical and Conceptual Background ………………………… ………………….…….….………….
1.1.1. The Geographical Setting and the demographic character of the region….……….…….…….………
1.1.2. Opportunities and Hurdles of the Region..….………………………….......……….……...…….…….
1.1.2.1. Opportunities..….…………………….......……………………………………...……...…….…….
a) Natural Capital bestows..….……………………............................................……….……...…….…….
b) Social Capital: Melting pot of Cultures..….………………….………….......……….……...…….…….
c) Sanctuary of Africa’s Oldest Civilizations..………………….………….......……….……...…….…….
d) Geo-political and Strategic Center..….……………………………….….......……….……...…….…….
1.1.2.2. Historic burdens and Hurdles..….………………………………….......……….……...…….…….
1.2. EARLY IMAGINATIONS AND THE SEARCH FOR THE SOURCE/S OF THE NILE
1.2.1. Naming: Why White, Black or Blue…………………………………………………………………..
1.2.2. Early Imaginations about Nile River and establishment of Hegemonic Epistemology ………………
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1.2.3. The Hurdles of the Explorations and the Prominent Explorers…………..……....….…………………
1.2.3.1.European Adventures……………..……………….…..….…….….……….......................................
1.2.3.2. The African Peasants as early Explorers……………..……………….…..……..…….….………....
1.2.3.3. The de-Africanization of the Black Nile……….………………….……..………………………….
a. Hellenization and Romanization of the Nile………………..….……………………..….………...……
b. The Arabization and Islamization of the Nile………………..….………….……..…….………...……
1.2.4. The Geography, Hydrological setting and Sub Basins….…………………..….……….………...……
1.2.4.1. Hydrography of the Nile………………………………………...…….…….………..……..…….…
2.4.1.1. Sub Basins: Tributaries and Distributaries………………..………….…………….…….…………..
a. The Abbay / Blue Nile Sub-System ………….…………………………………………..…..…………
b. The Tekeze/Atbara Sub-System …………....………………….……………..….……..………………
c. The Baro-Akobo/ Sobat Sub-System……………………………………………………………..…….
CHAPTER-TWO
2. THE PRAXIS OF HYDRO-HEGEMONY AND DIPLOMACY ………………….………..…………..
2.1. Conceptualization of Hydro-hegemony…………….…………………………..…….………………….
2.1.2. Diplomacy for equitable utilization of International Rivers.............................................................…
CHAPTER-THREE
3. THE TRIADS IN THE ETHIO-EGYPTIAN RELATION: WATER, CROSS AND SWORD
3.1. Review of Ethio-Egyptian Relations…….………..……………………...………….......…….…………
3.2. Faith and Water: The Commingling of Religion and the Nile Politics ……….….……..…….………...
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PREFACE
3.2.1. Exchange of Bishops for Water……………………………………………..……….…………………
3.2.2. Strategic Shift from Christian fraternity to Political Islam……………………….……….……………
3.3: Ethiopian Emperors warnings of arresting the Nile…………………………...…….……..…….…….
3.4. Faith and Bullets: Military Invasion guised in Civilizing Mission…………..…………………………
3.4.1. Early Phase of the Egyptian encroachment of Ethiopia and the Horn……….……….………………
3.4.2. The battle of Gura and Gundet: The annihilation of the Egyptians and Euro-American mercenaries
3.4.3. The tactic of fishing in troubled waters: Destabilization Projects and Proxy wars……………………
CHAPTER-FOUR
4. REGIME FORMATION AND INSTITUTION BUILDING IN THE EASTERN NILE BASIN
4.1. Theories and Legal doctrines for the utilization of International Rivers………………………..……..…
4.2. Historical development and conceptual bases of International Water Law………………….…………..
4.3. Review of Treaties in the Eastern Nile Basin….………………………………..…………….……….
I-Anglo-Italian Protocol…….…………………………...…………………………………….…..……..……
II-Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty …….……..…………………….…………………………….…..….……….……
III-The Tripartite Treaty…….…………………………..…………………………………....…………..……
IV-The Anglo-Italian Secret Agreement…….……………….………….………………….…………..……..
V-The 1929 Nile Water Agreement…….…………………………….………………………………………..
VI-The 1959 Nile Waters Agreement for the Full Utilization and Control……...………………….….……..
VII-The Ethio-Sudanese Agreement Regarding the Nile……….………………………………..….….……
VIII-The Ethio-Egyptian Framework Agreement: ……..…………….…….……..………………….……….
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4.4. The Institutionalization Process…..………………….…………………………………………………...
4.6. Reviewing the efficacy and the Lacuna of Nile water treaties …………………….…….……………..
CHAPTER-FIVE
5. ECONOMC DEVELOPMENT APPROACHES IN ETHIOPIA……….……………………………….
5.1. Development Approaches: from Japanizers to Developementalism……….……………………………
5.1.1. From Japanizers to Socialist Experiment……….……………………………………………………..
5.1.2. Post 1991: Road towards Developmentalism……….…………………………………………………
5.2. An Emerging African Tiger……….…………………………………………………………………….
CHAPTER-SIX
6.: POWERING ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT THROGH RENEWABLE ENERGY………………….
6.1 Water- Food - Energy-Nexus: ……………………………..………..........................................................
6.1.1 Water for Food Security….………………………………….………………………….………………
6.1.2. Water as Foot Print of Energy……………...………………………………………….……………….
6.2 Ethiopia-The Tower of Africa’s Clean Energy Resource---------------------------------------------------------
6.2.1.The Booming of Renewable Energy in Ethiopia-------------------------------------------------.---------------
6.2.2. Solar and Wind Energy Resources-----------------------------------------------------------...-----------------
6.2.3. Hydro Power Projects…………………………………………………………………..………………
6.2.4. Geothermal Energy Resources………………………………………………………………………….
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CHAPTER-SEVEN
7. THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM (GERD) AND THE DYNAMICS IN THE
CONTEMPORARY EASTERN NILE BASIN -----------------------------------------------------------------------
7.1. The Grand Renaissance Dam Project------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7.2. Ethio-Egyptian Diplomatic Fallout and Re-engagement……………………………..……………….…
7.2.1. The discourse of Red Line and, Blitzkrieg/Strike from Sadat to Mursi…………….………………….
7.2.2. International Diplomatic Wrestling…………………..………………………….……………………..
7.2.3. Rapprochement and glimmer of hope for inclusive treaty ………….…………..………………..……
Conclusion …….…………….………………………………………….…….……………………...
Bibliography…….……………………….…………………………………………………….……..
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PREFACE
In most of the studies that focus on the issues of the horn of Africa, the region that embraces the
two protagonist riparian states of the Eastern Nile Basin (Ethiopia and Sudan) and their neighbors,
we uncover antithetical mix of laden natural resource endowment and horrible crisis.
In many studies, scholars usually underestimate the impact of the former for the intensification of
the latter rather they simply identify the area as epicenter of fragile states, pandemic political
instability, calamitous economic downturn, chronic poverty, horrific humanitarian crisis and
chronic insecurity.
Therefore, these prognostication and conclusions about the root causes of the trajectories sank into
a sweeping generalization that attributes them to the primordial and contextual conflicts, inefficient
institutions, impermeable cultural values, natural calamities, foreign intervention and lack of
skilled human capital capable of turning the threats into opportunities. But, all these explanations
failed short of addressing what can exactly be done to break the cycle of the crisis and the question
what’s wrong with the region and the contentious debate about the critical forces that trigger these
trajectories still remains tenuous albeit multifarious interventions. Moreover, the intervention
approaches failed to be fitting models other than highlighting proximate sign posts.
Therefore, the purpose of this book is to unveil the root causes for the economic down turn and
tribulations that had been prevailing Ethiopia, one among the core states of horn of Africa, in light
of the delicate water politics of the Eastern Nile Basin. Thus, the book addresses how the Egyptian
hegemony in the ‘Eastern Nile Basin’ influences the economic metamorphosis, the political
development and the diplomatic relation of Ethiopia with its neighbors in the core Horn of Africa
(HoA) and as well with Egypt itself.
Historically, the aforementioned issues were fundamentally mingled with and radiated from the
water politics of the Nile because the Nile, the dominating physical feature of the region, has
always been a pillar of securitization and political instrument of Egypt. Every single Egyptian
ruler that assumed power even in the early BC was associating the longevity of reigns to the
assurance of the perennial flow of the Nile.
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The book also explains the instruments that enabled the Egyptians to hold a hegemonic position in
the appropriation of the Nile. In this regard, it discloses so far uncovered extraordinary issue of
how the ritualization and enculturation of water myth and articulation of refined social control
mechanisms guised in religious affinity were instrumentalized to justify lean years and as well for
weakening the rise of a balancing hegemony in the region. It disclosed how water related myths
were produced, refined and invested in Ethiopia to make the Nile the sole gift and sacred husband
of ‘sardonic Egypt.’
This venture was further consolidated by soft and hard power projections over the headwater
regions and thereby Egypt held a hegemonic position which remained intact for millennia till the
onset of Ethiopian renaissance drive. Hence, the book explains the all rounded wrangling held
between Egypt and Ethiopia due to the stubborn position of the former for maintaining its position
intact.
After comprehensive discussion over these themes, the book focuses on illuminating the adoption
of alternative national strategies from imperial to the Derge for quick-fix remedies to the
aforementioned predicaments without addressing the simmering cause bedeviled in the Nile water
politics and the concomitant counterfeit.
Finally, the book addresses the determination of Ethiopia for the democratization of the utilization
and the benefits of the Nile river on the basis of social equity, economic efficiency and ecological
integrity both as sine qua none for the anomalies in the eastern Nile Basin and as well for the
takeoff of its revival by inaugurating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(Meles’s Pyramid)
and the optimistic head starts of NBI(Nile Basin Initiative) in fostering these tenets in spite of the
Egyptian nostalgic love towards the old creeds of colonialism.
In general, the book assesses the effect of Egyptian realist proto-colonial projection and
destabilizing adventurism, the codification of coercive and exclusive Nile water agreements, the
enculturation projects, the ritualization of myths, incapacitating interventions and as well the
sterilizing mechanisms of agents of the crisis management and coping strategy over the peoples of
Ethiopia in connection of its neighbors since the pharoanic times.
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OUTLINE OF THE BOOK
The book begins with a description about the physical geography, the demography characteristics
and the cultural setting of the region. The second chapter emphasizes on the intellectual
imagination and the epistemological foundations of the earliest adventurers, missionaries,
geographers, historians to unveil the mysteries of the Nile. Thus, in this portion of the study the
hydrography, the physical character and the varying climatic zones it crosses are vividly surveyed.
The third chapter is dedicated for explaining the concept of hydro-hegemony and interstate
relationships between Egypt and Ethiopia. Chapter four focuses on the legalization and
institutionalization of the utilization of the Nile River. It narrates about the unfounded legal claims
of Egypt on the basis of the colonial relics which are epistemologically non-African in origin.
Chapter five highlights the economic down turn that had been experienced in Ethiopia and the
Horn of Africa. In this regard, after explaining the theoretical tents, major emphasis is given how
the issue of water is detrimental than any other resource in shaping the economic base and the
prospect of development in the region. This portion of the paper explains about the contentious
debate on the issue of the under development of the region, and provides a note of optimism about
its future.
The hub of the final two chapters is a discussion about the onset of Ethiopia renaissance drive,
the inauguration of the Grand Renaissance Dam, and the eventual dilapidation of Egyptian
undisputed hegemony over the Eastern Nile Basin.